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US Trade Deficit Second Worst in History as Goods Hit a New Record

International Trade in Goods and Services 

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the goods and services deficit was $80.2 billion in November, up $13.0 billion from $67.2 billion in October, revised. 

Trade Key Details 

  • Exports, Imports, and Balance (Exhibit 1) November exports were $224.2 billion, $0.4 billion more than October exports. 
  • November imports were $304.4 billion, $13.4 billion more than October imports.
  • The November increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $15.1 billion to $99.0 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $2.1 billion to $18.8 billion. 
  • Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $174.6 billion, or 28.6 percent, from the same period in 2020. 
  • Exports increased $354.4 billion or 18.2 percent. Imports increased $529.0 billion or 20.7 percent  

Three-Month Moving Averages 

• The average goods and services deficit increased $2.3 billion to $76.3 billion for the three months ending in November.
• Average exports increased $3.7 billion to $218.3 billion in November.
• Average imports increased $6.0 billion to $294.5 billion in November.  

The three-month moving average deficit of $76.3 billion is a new record.

Economist Projections

The Bloomberg Econoday economic consensus was for the deficit to increase to $71.6 billion. 

The census bureau reported a deficit of $80.2 billion. 

Advance Numbers

The advance trade numbers (goods) gave a hint at what would happen in the full report (goods and services) today.

Nonetheless, economists still missed it by a mile. 

Let’s tune into what I had to say on December 29: Goods Trade Deficit Unexpectedly Swells to Second Worst in History

Touch and Go for a New Net Record

The previous net record was $-81.44 billion. If the advance number holds and there are no back revisions, then we can calculate what the services number needs to be for a new record.

97.778 – 81.44 = 16.338

If the services surplus is less than $16.338 billion then we will have a new net record trade deficit.

Place Your Bets 

And there you go. 

The census bureau reported a services surplus of $18.82 billion thereby averting a new overall record deficit. 

Somehow, this was far too complicated for the economists to figure out. 

Perhaps they expected an even bigger jump in the services surplus. But if so, why? 

This is what likely happened. Economists noted the $67.2 billion overall deficit in October and padded it a little to $71.6 billion without properly factoring in the advance number. 

Math is hard!

Make Trade Math Great Again

A reader asked me about iPhones. It was an excellent question that addresses some of the silliness in counting imports and exports.

Q: “If I ordered an Apple iPad, it comes directly from China, is that an import to the USA?

Please consider the answer: Make Trade Math Great Again, iPhone Example: Globalization in Reverse

I wrote that in 2018. The logic still applies.

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11 Comments
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LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
4 years ago
Mish, like to know why my last 2 comments are not getting thru.
What gives?
GodfreeRoberts
GodfreeRoberts
4 years ago
I suspect your iPhone supplier breakdown is obsolete by 3 years. Nikkei Asia says

Apple is tapping more suppliers in China for key roles in producing the latest iPhone, a sign that the country’s technological competitiveness is continuing to increase despite Washington’s attempts to rein in Beijing’s tech ambitions.

Chinese electronics maker Luxshare Precision Industry will build up to 3% of the upcoming iPhone 13 series, winning orders away from Taiwanese rivals Foxconn and Pegatron, Nikkei Asia has learned. Apple is slated to produce between https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Apple-to-go-all-in-on-5G-for-its-2022-iPhone-lineup of the new iPhones through January.

Luxshare will start building the iPhone 13 Pro — as the premium model is expected to be called — this month, according to sources, a major breakthrough for a company that has never produced iPhones on its own. Newcomers to the Apple supply chain normally start out making older iPhone models. Two companies that Luxshare acquired last year, South Korean camera module maker Cowell and metal frame maker Casetek of Taiwan, will also supply key components and parts for this year’s new iPhones, sources familiar with the matter said.

“Although Luxshare only makes a small percentage of iPhones this year, we can’t let our guard down,” said a senior executive at a rival iPhone supplier. “If we don’t strengthen our competitiveness, sooner or later they will be the major source.”

Apple boasts the world’s most complex consumer electronics supply chain, churning out roughly 200 million iPhones, 20 million MacBooks and tens of millions of AirPods a year. The company’s notoriously high manufacturing standards mean that any company in its supply chain is seen as being among the best in its field.

The rise of Chinese Apple suppliers comes at the expense of rivals in the U.S., Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, several of whom are either seeing their share of orders shrink or who have dropped out of the Apple supply chain completely.

China’s success also comes despite an ongoing U.S. crackdown on Chinese chipmakers, including trade restrictions aimed at blocking their access to vital American tools and technologies.

Hunan-based Lens Technology previously only supplied glass backs and cover glass for iPhones, but this year will also supply metal casings for the first time, Nikkei has learned, thanks to its acquisition last year of a rival’s metal frame and casing plants in China.

Meanwhile, China’s biggest maker of smartphone camera lenses, Sunny Optical Technology, entered the iPhone supply chain for the first time this year, people familiar with the matter said. The Hong Kong-listed company will supply rear camera lenses, though its share is still small, according to the sources.

Based in Zhejiang Province, Sunny Optical — a key supplier to China’s Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo and Vivo — has long been viewed as a key competitor to Largan Precision of Taiwan, the leading maker of premium smartphone lenses and a longtime iPhone supplier. Sunny Optical’s revenue nearly tripled from 2016, while its net profit has quadrupled.

BOE Technology will begin supplying premium organic light-emitting diode displays for the iPhone 13 series as soon as next quarter if it receives Apple’s approval this quarter, two people familiar with the situation said. It started providing OLED displays for older iPhone models last year.

Beijing sees BOE as the country’s best hope for challenging Samsung, the world’s largest and most advanced OLED supplier. Apple is also keen to bring the Chinese display maker into the iPhone supply chain as a way of increasing its bargaining power with Samsung.

Several other Chinese companies appeared on Apple’s supplier list for the first time last year, including display maker Tianma Micro-Electronics, memory chip maker GigaDevice Semiconductor and Nexperia, owned by China’s biggest smartphone assembler, Wingtech Technology.

Wingtech is also in the process of buying the U.K.’s biggest chip plant, Wales-based Newport Wafer Fab, via Nexperia.

Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology, a rival of Taiwan’s Catcher Technology and Foxconn’s casing unit, also appeared on the top 200 suppliers list for the first time last year.

Eric Tseng, chief analyst with Isaiah Research, said companies like Luxshare, Goertek, Wingtech and Lens have all been gaining orders in the Apple supply chain recently. The rise of Luxshare — which started out providing relatively simple components for iPhones just a few years ago — is likely to be a bargaining chip for Apple against its longtime manufacturing partner Foxconn, he added.

“We foresee Apple’s need to diversify its sourcing and manage its costs amid the geopolitical uncertainties that will continue to rise in the coming years, which will give Chinese suppliers a good opportunity to expand shares in the supply chains and create bigger pressure on the existing suppliers,” Tseng told Nikkei Asia.

Apple, Luxshare, Lens, BOE and Sunny Optical did not respond Nikkei’s Asia’s requests for comments as of publication.

StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  GodfreeRoberts
The Covid pandemic, and attendant restrictions, have really highlit the value of having a broad and solid footing in China. China’s sheer size, means you can largely get “everything” done in-country. Which becomes critical, when all manners of unpredictable border closings etc pop up. Having a supply line spanning 12 countries, with factories in every country depending on deliveries from the others, becomes a massive cluster-f very quickly, if only one or a few closes down, or effectively shuts down due to workforces being quarantined.
While China’s covid handling may appear a bit extreme from the outside, it has succeeded in keeping the interior effectively covid free, hence allowed life and business to continue largely as usual. Which has, again, resulted in a drive to source subcomponents in-country, rather than being dependent on Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers; effectively speeding up the Chinese climb up the value chain.
Even post (if “ever”…) – covid, the Trumpiots’ somewhat successful attempts at making arbitrary national borders more relevant in trade and people flows, will ensure China’s “one-stop-shop” advantage will only continue to solidify and grow. The other countries simply aren’t large, hence industrially broadly endowed, enough to compete. America could be the closest, but our manufacturing workforce is by now reduced to consisting of mold spores in the walls of shoddily slapped together, overpriced shacks; so that won’t work outside of the Trumpiots’ imaginations, either. The EU, even Germany, have also renationalized trade and people flows in the wake of the pandemic, and as a result of refugee pressure. So, they’re stuck waiting for supplies at borders as well. While in China, things flow freely between over 1 billion people.
LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
4 years ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
you don’t have to be a “Trumpoit” to want to source subcomponents in-country. But I see, it’s good for China but not the USA.
While I agree, nothing but mold spores and hollowed out cries from midwestern plants long gone, which you seem to care little about, in fact, look down on those people,  but since you sound like an arrogant jerk I am not surprised. But hey, they can knock themselves out, keep polluting their country with toxic air; wearing masks there long before COVID hit here.
China is America the day after WW2 ended.  America had to incorporate people around the world into a culture. China is one culture,  a beautiful ancient culture, with beautiful people. China is for Chinese. And I respect that, to a point.
Enjoy it while it lasts. It won’t. and under the service a lot of nasty _hit goes on.
Happy New Year
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  LPCONGAS99
Ultimately, sourcing ice from in country Western Sahara, instead of from Eskimostan, is not good for anyone. The less de facto friction people trying to create some value are faced with, the more value they can create. Hence the more they can charge for their output. 
Apple would be better off if they could reliably source each component from the best suited factory, regardless of which arbitrary national borders it happened to fall inside.
But, once arbitrary national borders do become potential and/or real chokepoints; it favors the big. And noone is bigger than China. If America still had any productive capacity, which would first require America to regain an environment conducive to producing something competitively, America could also benefit, RELATIVELY (but not absolutely) from more arbitrary border bottlenecks.
But, for America to regain such an environment, it would require pretty much every single American with any wealth, to forego it. Since virtually all their wealth and income is sourced solely from a Fed, totalitarian state and gaggle of kangaroo courts handing them loot stolen directly from those few who still do attempt to produce some value competitively. Making it prohibitively expensive for those guys, to continue doing so. You can’t compete with Shein, if you have to pay 10x what Shein has to pay their commie overlords; just to enrich ambulance chasers, deadweight FIRE leeches, illiterate PE morons, random, entirely clueless “investors,” “real estate” owners and all manners of other utterly useless dregs who produce nothing, yet in our current dystopian America are living it up at others expense, on account of a totalitarian government and institutions robbing others on their behalf.
LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
4 years ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
 “If America still had any productive capacity, which would first require America to regain an environment conducive to producing something competitively, America could also benefit RELATIVELY (but not absolutely) from more arbitrary border bottlenecks.”
that is what I am hoping for…but it seems there are too many interest global parties that will do their best to never let this happen ever again.
Steve_R
Steve_R
4 years ago
I wonder if someone has the answer to this, if I ordered an Apple Ipad, it comes directly from China, is that an import to the USA, and likewise if some  person from China purchases an Apple product that is made in China, is that counted at all?
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  Steve_R
Import 
But overcounted.
China added very little value.
Discussed in detail here:
Make Trade Math Great Again, iPhone Example: Globalization in Reverse
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Overcounted for sure, but maybe there is another twist.
Apple is the only legit seller of Ipad, so if purchased from China, Apple already applied its markup.
When purchased in the US, it enters the country as import, but is it counted at retail price or factory price?
LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Mish. You are brilliant on this stuff but there is something that bothers me here. And not directing this at you but please help understand how the U.S. trade deficit is not one of the biggest problems that know one wants to solve now for the last 40 years or more?
Isn’t it in a countrys best interest to make certain products? Steel? Auto’s electrical component parts that go into military hardware., etc,etc.
I once read years ago of one of our  fighter jets has a part only made in China. LOL. Are we going to ask for time out in the corner for the part in the middle of a war zone somewhere?  We have out sourced everything important it seems. I don’t care if someone makes it cheaper elsewhere.
If there are no high paying jobs what does it matter that people can go to walmart to get cheaper goods if they don’t have a job to pay for it?
How did Caterpillar do in China? GE? Not good. And I know tariffs are not the answer
Isn’t the answer the government has to create tax,education, and other forms of help to bring production back into the U.S. As you said previously, paraphrasing here, the stimulus checks stimulated the economy of China where the production starts.
Years ago I heard someone complain when MSM had article that GE pays no Corporate income tax. My response was, I don’t give a flying _uck the real problem is wall st and our elected politicians let them offshore the jobs, and then we CPA’s make sure they pay no or minimal corporate tax. So the U.S. loses production, jobs, and tax collections! That is the problem. Give them tax and educational credits to come back and then they can pay no corporate tax but we now have those jobs here and the government has tax revenue and U.S. residents spending money locally.
All the while corporate executives with stock buybacks to inflate EPS so they can cash in their stock options and sad to say, they look at the U.S. and say why do I want to reinvest in a plant here? best thing for my shareholders are stock buybacks. And they are right from their shareholders prospective.
Know one gives a flying you know what about Main St America anymore and it pisses me off and I see an anti-Americanism along with it
Sorry for the rant. And I am sure I made my point in laymans terms. But help me here. 
How does America regain its footing economically?
Thank you
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
“Exports increased $354.4 billion or 18.2 percent. Imports increased $529.0 billion or 20.7 percent”
but but the supply train excus .. er, issues … re inflation …  

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