How much oil investment would that take?
Trump on Truth Social
Truth Social Link: I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States! I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan, immediately. It will be taken by storage ships, and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Yes, I am paying attention.
Please note Big Oil doesn’t share Trump’s dream of making Venezuelan oil great again
Trump has expressed excitement over the prospect of US oil companies getting their hands on Venezuela’s vast oil resources.
But industry sources tell CNN that American oil executives are unlikely to dive headfirst into Venezuela for multiple reasons: The situation on the ground remains very uncertain, Venezuela’s oil industry is in shambles and Caracas has a history of seizing US oil assets.
Perhaps the biggest problem is that oil prices are too low today to justify spending the gobs of money – possibly tens of billions of dollars – that would be required to revive Venezuela’s decaying oil industry.
“The appetite for jumping into Venezuela right now is pretty low. We have no idea what the government there will look like,” one well-placed industry source told CNN on Monday. “The president’s desire is different than the industry’s. And the White House would have known that if they had communicated with the industry prior to the operation on Saturday.”
Venezuela has more proven oil reserves than any country on the planet, more than Iraq, Russia and the United States combined, according to federal estimates.
Yet when oil companies decide to invest in far-flung drilling projects, they need confidence about what the operating environment there will look like years, if not decades, into the future. These days it’s hard to feel solid about Venezuela’s form of government and institutions weeks from now, let alone years.
“Just because there are oil reserves – even the largest in the world – doesn’t mean you’re necessarily going to produce there,” another industry source told CNN. “This isn’t like standing up a food truck operation.”
“Venezuela is broke. It doesn’t have any money. The national oil company is in disarray. It can barely feed its people,” said Luisa Palacios, a former Citgo chairwoman who was born and raised in Venezuela.
Just to keep Venezuela’s oil production flat at 1.1 million barrels per day – roughly equal to what North Dakota currently produces – would require about $53 billion of investment over the next 15 years, according to estimates published Monday by consulting firm Rystad Energy.
However, to return Venezuela to its glory days of 3 million barrels per day from the late 1990s, total oil and gas capital spending would need to reach a staggering $183 billion through 2040, according to Rystad’s analysis.
That huge figure reflects not only Venezuela’s aging infrastructure but the fact that most of its oil is considered “heavy,” a blend of crude that is harder and more expensive to refine and process than the lighter oil found in the Permian Basin of West Texas.
$60 oil won’t inspire investment
Crude is also cheap right now. Oil prices plunged by 20% last year – their worst since 2020.
Cheap oil is great for consumers, driving down gasoline prices to four-year lows. However, that same low-price environment makes oil CEOs, and their shareholders, reluctant to gamble on risky projects.
“The idea that there will be an overnight restart of the Venezuelan oil industry is just unrealistic. It’s all very premature,” said Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research’s managing director of integrated oil, refiners and exploration & production.
Chevron currently produces about 150,000 barrels per day in Venezuela, according to Rystad, operating under a sanctions license the Trump administration recently extended.
Chevron declined to answer questions about its level of interest in ramping up production in Venezuela now that President Nicolás Maduro has been removed from power.
Exxon is focused on developing blockbuster oil discoveries in nearby Guyana, which in the span of a few years has gone from almost no oil production to surpassing that of Venezuela.
“Venezuela is not the only game in town – not even in Latin America,” Palacios said.
Trump Pushes Oil Companies
Reuters reports US pushes oil majors to invest big in Venezuela if they want to recover debts
White House and State Department officials have told U.S. oil executives in recent weeks that they would need to return to Venezuela quickly and invest significant capital in the country to revive the damaged oil industry if they wanted compensation for assets expropriated by Venezuela two decades ago, according to two people familiar with the outreach.
In the 2000s, Venezuela expropriated the assets of some international oil companies that declined to give state-run oil company PDVSA increased operational control, as demanded by late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
President Donald Trump said on Saturday that American companies were prepared to return to Venezuela and spend to reactivate the struggling oil sector, just hours after President Nicolás Maduro was captured and removed by U.S. forces.
In the recent U.S. administration discussions with oil executives in the scenario that Maduro was out of power, officials have said that U.S. oil companies would need to front the investment money themselves to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry. That would be one of the preconditions for them eventually recovering debts from the expropriations.
That would be a costly investment for firms such as ConocoPhillips, the sources said. Conoco for years has tried to recover some $12 billion from the Chavez-era nationalization of its Venezuela assets. Exxon Mobil also filed international arbitration cases, trying to recover $1.65 billion.
“ConocoPhillips is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability. It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments,” a company spokesperson said in emailed comments to Reuters on Saturday. The company reiterated the statement on Sunday when asked about discussions with administration officials for this story.
Premature Silliness
This is all premature silliness until Trump proves his administration can run Venezuela as promised.
And it’s not like the oil is high quality as Trump claims. Indeed it’s low quality that is both hard to extract and hard to refine.
For discussion of oil quality and refining issues, please see How Long Will it Take to Ramp Up Production of Venezuelan Oil?
Here are responses from AI, the WSJ, and an energy investor who posts on my blog.
For discussion of logistcs and running the country, please see What Are the Odds that the US Can Successfully Run Venezuela?
History is not kind to the idea. Nonetheless, let’s investigate a current take.
Future is perfect absolutely in the dream. One plus one equal two.
Till it doesn’t.
Jesus wept. This lunatic will guide not only the US economy but also Venezuela’s? And there’s a note on ZeroHedge this morning that he doesn’t think financial institutions should be allowed to buy single-family homes. Is there a goddamned trace left of the Republican party that opposed state management of the economy? (Did I really vote for this whack-job?)
He’s not wrong about Blackrock buying homes en masse and then renting back at inflated prices my man.
In other words “capitalism”.
I think there’s a lot of “crony” in there, somehow fed policy and/or deficit spending and or tax laws or whatever, make it profitable for Blackrock to do it.
There should be a difference between plain old “Capitalism” and PREDATORY Capitalism!
He’s wrong to think it’s any of the govt’s business what Blackrock does with its capital, or what rent it charges. Also, it would be nice, just imo, if a Republican president didn’t sound like Mamdani.
But it is the tax laws that enable Blackrock and others to do this. This along with many other tax laws in favor of a home as an “investment” have corrupted the single-home market and put starter homes out of the reach of many people.
This is far more more complicated than your simplified world view.
You may have noticed that il duce isn’t talking about changing the tax law. And by the way, which tax law provisions do you believe are responsible for a situation you dislike? (As an aside, you’ve no clue how simplified or complex my world view might be, but don’t let that deficiency slow you down.)
The main factor putting home prices out of reach is the same one that has put the DJIA at 25x earnings (for a 4% earnings yield): generations of cheap money. Which il duce favors.
The larger objection to this latest nonsense is the revolting cravenness of Republican Party, which denounces socialism unless it’s their idiot promoting it. Btw, there was an entertaining bit somewhere else today about the Communist Mayor of NYC and his rent-affordability czar.
What’s the difference between one economic dictator and another?
If you voted for him after his first term, well, this is all on you.
Who did you vote for, you sanctimonious twit?
This raises an interesting technical question. Is Il duce going to continue to allow institutional investors to lend to families wanting to buy homes? Uhm, if a loan goes bad, is the institutional investor barred from foreclosing? As usual, deeply thought policy. (Good news is I’ve picked up a little stock at a 14% knockdown from yesterday’s price.)
Drifting so much to the right that it s no longer about the economy at the end🙄
In California, the SoCal Philips 66 refinery was to have shut down in December and the Valero NorCal refinery is scheduled to shut down in April. More gasoline will have to be imported from elsewhere by tanker.
I am stealing this line .
Quick update and legal name change
Will you guys stop referring to the Monroe Doctrine
It is now the Donroe Doctrine……………………………………………….OMG LOL
Does it include the Gulf of America?
LOL!!!!!……You can tell I was just looking for some humor right?
I’m going to have put a disclaimer on all my posts
“This post is not an endorsement of the current Administration.”
In the mid 1980’s. I observed a business model while in the Priobskya oil field west of Nefteyugansk, Russia, that might work in Venezuela. A small oil field service company based in Holland would require full upfront payment before equipment and materialized mobilized or service performed. When valued of services neared payment received, they shut down. Situation was similar in that there was initial production established but the equipment was in terrible shape. It was a relatively small operation, maybe a million or two dollars a month, and might have problems on the scale required in Venezuela.
Trump is very good at announcing deals. He isn’t any good at completing the deal or making the deal successful.
That’s the credit he wants. He doesn’t care the rest.
Suddenly the decapitation of Maduro makes sense:
https://metro.co.uk/2026/01/07/us-forces-attempting-seize-russian-flagged-tanker-marinera-atlantic-26130727/?ito=pull-notification&ci=UEabnzgQM-&xi=a3cd211e-bd64-4522-93ea-1c63c990bb8f&ai=26130727
It is probably a matter of weeks before the US and Russia have some type of direct conflict. Russia isnt too happy about the US negotiating with Denmark for Greenland. The goal of the US deep inside the Pentagon has always been to decapitate and free Russia from Putin.
All of whats happening is Putin attempting to destroy NATO. Venezuela and Greenland are involved for different reasons but now we know why. The US is attempting to gain leverage over Russia in more creative ways in order to end the war in the Ukraine and choke Russia in the process.
Tanker seized per report this morning.
Good. Russia needs its raggedy ass slapped down.
“The goal of the US deep inside the Pentagon has always been to decapitate and free Russia from Putin.”
Your tin foil hat may be a few sizes too tight.
Here is an interesting article on the cost breakdown to produce Venezuelan Oil.
https://neosciencehub.com/thermodynamic-limits-energy-return-on-investment-in-heavy-oil/
Interesting article.
I wonder though if we might have improved processes over the last 30 years or so since the US companies were forced out of Venezuela. Improvements have been made in the Canadian fields that have to do similar things.
The assumption is that the oil is converted into something resembling ‘normal’ refinery feedstock, I wonder what the numbers would look like if the Orinoco crude were processed into asphalt?
Trump is so over the top and vocal about the Oil, talking about it every chance he gets that it makes me very suspicious that it’s not about the Oil. Everytime these types of regime changes take place the talking points are always used to deflect what the real, untold reason is.
The reason?
He’s old, he’s fixated on poorly understood issues from the past, he knows little about any of what he babbles about, he surrounds himself with people who won’t say NO
The only reason is that he can and in his mind he’s fixing 1973
Wasn’t it about the “cocaine boats?”
What aren’t lies these days?
It’s not…. The oil discussion is for public consumption by the American public. Its really about the Chinese gaining control over mining Venezuela’s rare earth resources, Iran military assistance to Venezuela including assembly of drones capable of reaching the southern part of the US, and Russian military assistance. Start researching these three things and be prepared for an eye opener.
Why would we care about any of those things? Venezuela is a sovereign nation and should sell oil and rare earths to the highest bidder. The US should just outbid China. If we maintained friendly relations, they would look to us for military equipment.
For the record, that is another David. Not my post
people will evaluate his behavior, but I see his behavior as a general continuation of the behavior of US presidents and the US government for the last, as long as anyone here has been alive anyway. This isn’t the first oil theft, if that’s what you want to call it. And whatever else he does that outrages you, he’s not the first, and there is probably more than one other too. I learned a new word last year- kakistocracy.
“This is all premature silliness until Trump proves his administration can run Venezuela as promised.”
Trump isn’t even running the US, Trump’s is just a more clownish flavor than usual of the exact same people doing exactly the same things the anglo-american ruling elites have ALWAYS done.
As usual, most people see only what they want to see…
I always say a free country isn’t “run”. North Korea is “run”. You always hear about how the president, or presidential candidate would “run the country” or “handle the economy”. People need to abandon both of those notions.
The average voter is way too stupid, lazy and ignorant to be relied upon, and that’s true EVERYWHERE.
The only hope to have a well functioning, reasonably happy and well RUN society is to have a ruling class who actually pursues the interests of the people they rule over (and limits the stealing for themselves…).
Every country has, in the medium to long run, the government it deserves and which reflects its human capital.
When we were saner, as a people, we also had better governments.
As the human capital of our countries degraded and degenerated, morally, culturally and demographically, we got worse and worse governments.
Good times is ultimately the culprit and bad times will be the solution.
I’ll definitely agree with the stupid lazy and ignorant part, but…relied upon for what? To vote competent people into office? My position is that the size and scope of government needs to be limited (very) so that it doesn’t really matter who gets voted into office because they can’t do much. How much authority does your benevolent ruling class have which it only uses as needed for the good of the country? But there’s always some existing or evolving “problem” which needs to be addressed (or does it really?). Then you might get into the area of government by “should”. This SHOULD be legal or illegal, they SHOULD do this or that. Lots of things SHOULD. Then there’s my other rule- There isn’t one problem or area of concern that can’t be improved not by the government doing something, but by the government stopping doing something.
“My position is that the size and scope of government needs to be limited (very) so that it doesn’t really matter who gets voted into office”
I share the sentiment but that has never been and never will be how human societies work. Humans have evolved to live in about 100-150 people groups and the power structure was limited by the other men in the group since were they too unhappy they would overturn the leader(s) directly by themselves. Peers to peers.
Once you get over a certain size the power structure is untouchable by the common man and power grows bigger and bigger until its eventual collapse.
Bear in mind that there has NEVER been a true popular revolution in modern societies. Behind “popular revolutions” there have ALWAYS been powerful interest groups financing and organizing them because they wanted to overturn other interest groups.
That’s reality, the rest is useless ideology.
lets put it this way
I AM REALLY REALLY INTERESTED HOW TRUMPS 2D TERM WILL END
obv he has gone mad, really mad, big time…
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remember some Rome dictator brought horse into Senate , as old story tells
we are getting close to this moment!
we’s way past that already.
“I drink your milkshake”!
Once upon a time not too long ago these 50 million barrels would have been called ‘tribute’. So lets call it what it is, Trump is now extracting tribute.
Presumably on deck will be Maduros personal (or the parties) wealth. Rumored to be quite large and in bit coin and gold accumulated since the late 90s. I would not be surprised to see that dispersed too once Maduro is made to reveal it’s location.
Coming back to the numbers. 53 billion in 15 years to maintain the existing infrastructure seems high at first glance. But if output is 1 million a day and oil gets back to say 80 a barrel that works out to 80 million a day or 29.2 billion dollars a year. So roughly 2 years worth of oil pays for the needed maintenance over the next 15 years (Venezuela would have had to do this anyway if they wanted to keep pumping oil). Not sure whether that’s in line with oil numbers (Papa Dave might know) but it seems to me that the other 13 years worth of money (29.2×13=379 billion) would make it worth while.
I think the ‘tribute’ label is spot on. I do doubt that any payment will come from the rich and in charge. I believe it will be paid by the poor.
Well the poor don’t control this process, so that does make a lot of sense *shrugs*
Your numbers work if the cost to produce the oil was 1 dollar a barrel. The average cost to produce the very heavy, very high Sulphur content Venezuelan Oil is approximately 50 dollars a barrel so the profit only starts above 50 dollars. Not to mention that Venezuela, gets some of the profit, it is their Oil, the Oil companies get some of the profit, they aren’t doing this for free and obviously Trump will take some. That would amount to what 1 million, 2 million, 5 million a day. Far shy of 80 million a day. The daily interest payment on the U S debt is 3 Billion dollars a day, any profit from Venezuelan Oil is so insignificant vs the US debt and just the Interest paid on that debt.
It’s a stupid plan, designed by stupid people.
Texas Tim is cosplaying as someone who understands oil markets. I guess it’s better than him dressing up as a lolicon.
For the 1st time a US President says it out loud and directly, that’s it about the oil. And Mamdani for the first time he says it oud loud that it’s about socialism.
People wanted honest speak from their politicians, now they got it, they still complain.
Still naive to think you’re getting either the truth or even part of it with this oil narrative.
It could be part of a larger strategy to keep Russian and Chinese influence out of our hemisphere. There could be some truth to this Monroe Doctrine 2.0. To me the simpler answer is the massive DoD budget has to go somewhere. It has to have conflict to justify its existence.
The one thing I do know is it is way too early to know why we did it, and what direction we’re heading. No one predicted it would take 20 years to get out of Afghanistan. Also no one predicted our last spat with Iran would be only 12 days. Here at the cheap seats it’s all speculation at this point.
<<It could be part of a larger strategy to keep Russian and Chinese influence out of our hemisphere.>>
Yes, I said that in previous Mish posts. Tariffs, Oil, AI, Greenland, etc. are all geopolitical tools and goals, and current politicians have not denied it. They know that all people will speculate exactly that, so why deny it? Who would deny that tariffs to India were in response to them selling drones to Putin? Especially after the NATO chief said that to a reporter on camera?
<<Here at the cheap seats it’s all speculation at this point.>>
True. It may all be “let them believe it’s the oil, which is true but only part of the story”. Or it may be 100% honest too, at least in this case. You should not assume that they lie all the time. They tell the truth sometimes, so that we believe them the other times too.
They only tell the truth when it’s meaningless or by accident.
=It could be part of a larger strategy
yeah trump and larger strategy! good punch line
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china is =1 in car produced, Russia is =1 in nuclear reactors produced
china is =1 trade partner for most of countries
keep posting!!!
it is about stealing, same as Indian=natives land , same as other minerals
You got to come up with a better analogy than American natives, who did not know what ownership is, were slaughtering each other, etc. and had not even discovered the entire country.
A better analogy is the British Empire and India. Or the French and their African colonies.
Don’t forget that non-English and non-French people are now the majority of modern Americans, and we have zero guilt about the past of the USA.
I think the analogy is actually quite good. Whether or not it is a long way in the past, stealing land and resources is stealing land and resources.
And as an aside, judging by the homicide rate and all the school shootings, Americans are slaughtering each other too.
<<stealing land and resources is stealing land and resources>>
What makes you think that the Indians owned it?
=What makes you think that the Indians owned it?
i dont know
they have been living here for 10,000 years at least!
fun fact : from what science says they traveled from Russian Siberia about 10,000 years over Bering strait
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Europeans have been living in N.America for last 500+ years
, or if you include Vikings in Canada it is 500 years more!
got a math?
ultimately if you can stand on something and defend it, or if you can get government employees to defend it for you, you own it. Although I don’t know if Indians had a modern concept of land ownership They’d probably stop you from knocking down their teepee to put yours up.
Recently I saw someone say the court system and contract law was not violence. That is a conceptual deficiency.
They weren’t encumbered by hideous concepts like possessions and ownership, not the way Americans and the world at large are.
Native American Indians were more inclined to try and achieve social status through their giving than through their ownership.
The population of the
nativeAsian tribes that the Europeans found, is estimated to 1.5 million at most. If you add all the land that their tipi villages occupied, it’s less than 0.5% of the US land mass.And they had no roads (they hadn’t discovered the wheel yet). And their hunting grounds were always changing, and many times they would burn entire forests to force the buffalo out.
Better to blame the Mexicans who killed the Mayas – at least the Mayas had government, so they could claim “property”.
Then go complain to the Turks for “stealing” Asia Minor and half of Cyprus from the Greeks. Etc. etc.
If you add all the land that their tipi villages occupied, it’s less than 0.5% of the US land mass.
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before Columbus Europeans OCCUPIED %ZERO land in n n. America
so what is your point?
My point is, that if you want to give them “their” land back, it would be a bunch of tiny areas here and there, with the largest ones about the size of a modern suburb. That is, if you find more than 100,000 of them who are at least 50% Indian blood. The majority of Cherokees in Oklahoma, for example, are 1/8th to 1/16th.
rape and pillage will do that to ethnic purity
<<before Columbus Europeans OCCUPIED %ZERO land in n n. America>>
And then they occupied a lot, most of which was completely unoccupied, and built on it: Houses, farms, factories, hospitals, schools, resource-processing plants.
What kind of “resources” did the nomadic natives have, that the Europeans “stole”? Random wild buffalo?
To have one (1) tribe of 20,000 claiming an area the size of Ohio for eternity is a bit rich. There’s no eternal ownership on this planet, and as a Marxist you should be against it in the first place.
You people are so miserable all the time it’s disgusting.
Better to blame the Mexicans who killed the Mayas
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uneducated bs!
nobody knows what happened w/ Mayas!
btw pal, do you know that originally Aztecs are from Florida?
<<nobody knows what happened w/ Mayas!>>
I’m suspecting the history of the area of today’s Mexico (and even more so, South America) is unknown? I’m asking because everyone keeps pointing the finger to “the whites of the USA” (because a tiny rich minority of them had slaves), but nobody points the finger to the Spaniards. (or the Arabs, but that’s another topic).
You’re all self-flagellating and miserable, and hate everyone who’s not joining in your misery.
And that’s the condition of this blog too.
Enjoy your misery and goodbye.
They were using handcarts 16,000 years before the wheel, if you want to get technical about things, that’s a pretty impressive tech for “pre-wheel tech”
https://www.iflscience.com/tracks-hint-native-americans-had-handcarts-16000-years-before-the-wheel-78206
And then they forgot all about it? Because when they found them, they didn’t have them. Your persistence into guilt by things committed by some English, French, and Spaniards, is of no concern to every modern American who is not Eng, Fr or Sp. If the rest of you feel you are on “stolen land”, you can pack your shit and go back to Europe (only 8 hours by plane). Over there you can convince modern Europeans to go back to where they were 1,000 years ago or 500 years ago or whatever arbitrary time point your college professors chose to enforce “guilt”.
PS. The “natives” were not stable tribes either, nor did they live in the same places always. Most of them can’t claim ownership even by the modern reasoning of long tradition. “Stolen land” my ass…
=, were slaughtering each other
wow! wow! wow!
AMERICAN? never opened hist book?
as compared to natives Europeans ARE JUST PLAIN MASS MURDERERS!.
you should have read more!
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obv you were ill from 4th grade to 10th.. and skipped all hist lessons about Europe.
start w/ 100 years long war (1337–1453)), and-or ww1 and ww2
alx
I didn’t make a comparison with European wars. You just did. FYI, I’m originally European, graduate of Philosophy (which includes extensive historical studies) of the University of Athens.
And I spent my first years in Germany… so I do have a wider perspective of what you think. Don’t resort to personal attacks, it shows you as cheap.
We wanted honest speak. And leaders that respect the constitution.
Really, this has nothing to do with Epstein? DOJ just quietly let go that the Epstein files may not be released until after trump is out of office.
86/47 25th, impeach or god. God would be fastest and most efficient, I can only hope it’s today.
Phillips 66 CFO says it can handle a couple hundred thousand barrels per day (if the economics are there to support it).
https://www.ogj.com/members/news/55341667/cfo-phillips-66-could-handle-a-couple-hundred-thousand-b-d-out-of-venezuela?o_eid=5118C0172445C4J&oly_enc_id=5118C0172445C4J&rdx.ident%5Bpull%5D=omeda%7C5118C0172445C4J&utm_campaign=CPS260106094&utm_medium=email&utm_source=OGJ+Daily
EpSTEIN!
…(if the economics are there to support it).
That’s ALWAYS the prelude to asking the Feds for a subsidy
Interesting. Reports are that this oil is already in floating storage, which would mean 25 to 35 large bulk oil carriers. I wonder where they are?
This has the potential to lower oil prices in the short term. Which only reduces the attractiveness for US oil companies being willing to set up operations in Venezuela.
Trump will meet with the oil companies on Friday and try to twist their arms to spend a lot of capital in Venezuela. Which I doubt they are willing to do. We live in interesting times.
Maybe it’s not meant to lower oil prices per se, but to keep them from rocketing up too much (in the US) if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. Seems like Trumpstein is poised to attack Iran again.
He seems to have a long list. Venezuela, Iran, Columbia, Greenland, Canada.
Also bombed Nigeria recently.
Trump is mentally ill IMO
U S economy is bad plus Epstein.Trump is creating diversions.Physically he seems to have some problems.
He may over-reach himself despite a vast array of weapons,HAARP and bases worldwide.
Will some Nations boycott the FIFA WORLD CUP?
Possibly. Though I doubt it. The world cup is a big deal for many countries. However, anything is possible in our crazy world.
Perhaps Trump’s aggressive actions against other countries will further reduce the desire for tourists to visit the US going forward.
About a dozen tankers loaded with Venezuelan crude and fuel departed in recent days from the country’s waters in dark mode, seemingly breaking a strict blockade imposed by the US amid intense pressure that mounted until the capture of deposed President Nicolas Maduro, monitoring service TankerTrackers.com said.
All the identified departed vessels are under US sanctions. A separate group of ships, also under sanctions, left the country in recent days empty after discharging imports or completing domestic transportation trips.
The departures could be a relief for Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA, which had accumulated a very large inventory of floating storage amid the US blockade, begun last month, dragging the country’s oil exports to a standstill.
Oil exports are Venezuela’s main source of revenue. An interim government now led by oil minister and vice president Delcy Rodriguez will need the income to finance spending and secure domestic stability in the country.
At least four of the departed tankers left Venezuelan waters through a route north of Margarita Island after briefly stopping near the country’s maritime border, TankerTrackers.com said, after identifying the vessels in satellite images.
A source with knowledge of the departures’ paperwork told Reuters that at least four supertankers had been cleared by Venezuelan authorities in recent days to leave Venezuelan waters in dark mode.
Excellent info. Thanks!
I was in Aruba recently and when sport fishing we went to an area surrounded by tankers at anchor of all sizes and condition. Very little activity on them and most were high in the water indicating they were empty. It was like a ghost fleet but with lots of fish hanging out under the tankers.
There is also a defunct Valero refinery on Aruba. Why was the investment stranded?
If I recall off hand Aruba refinery needs major capex just to not environmentally trash the vicinity. it’s not a pleasant ROI situtation.
This.
It wasn’t profitable. They tried to sell it but no one wanted to buy it. The government tried to reopen it, but was unsuccessful. Most Caribbean refineries were built between 1950 and 1970. They are old, inefficient and unprofitable.
– American oil executives are unlikely to dive headfirst into Venezuela. > Why? No Cost, Money Back, U.S. Protection, and it’s already obviously working. They are and have been filling tankers with “Heavy” which is exactly what we need, and can use in abundance, until if and when we decide to source heavy ourselves if possible. This may be part of the deal. All Heavy is bough by The U.S. @ said $ paid directly to the “New Elected Government”
– Caracas has a history of seizing US oil assets. > Not any longer I would say.
– most of its oil is considered “heavy,” a blend of crude that is harder and more expensive to refine and process than the lighter oil. > Exactly (see above). Well worth investing in existing and working to a degree at least, infrastructure. It’s a Win-Win for sure!
– Chevron declined to answer questions about its level of interest in ramping up production in Venezuela projects. > Smart.
– “The idea that there will be an overnight restart of the Venezuelan oil industry” > Obviously not for more refined oil production and its entire infrastructure, but Heavy has remained flowing, and would be immediately updated where possible, with short range goals of fixing it up.Way, way cheaper and quicker to market than where they sit today for it (Oh Ca…), and the decade or more, it would take to get it flowing here. Man, if we could store a boatload of it some how?
>> Without question, opportunities exist for Both Venezuela and America for sure. They have Heavy Flowing, We need Heavy, and they need Money!!
Analysts have started to quantify how much money it would take to resurrect Venezuela’s industry. It’s quite a lot, and will take at least a decade, even if U.S. oil firms were to flock to the opportunity, they say.
Returning Venezuela’s oil production to the 1970s peak of 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), more than triple the current output of about 1 million bpd, would need $10 billion in annual investment from U.S. oil majors over the next decade, Francisco Monaldi, director of Latin American energy policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, told Bloomberg.
That’s $100 billion in total over a decade.
x
Trump said the same thing about a $550 billion investment by Japan that has yet to materialize.
🟥 1. Trump said Japan “gave him” $550 billion to invest
Trump publicly claimed that Japan had given him $550 billion “to invest in the United States” as part of the trade framework.
He framed it as if the money were placed directly under his discretion.
🟥 2. He called it “seed money” and a “signing bonus”
Trump described the funds this way:
This language implied:
🟥 3. He said the U.S. would get 90% of the profits—even though Japan supplied the money
Trump claimed:
This is an extraordinary claim:
Japan supplies the capital, but the U.S. keeps almost all the returns.
🟥 4. Reports say Trump insisted on “near‑total control” over the money
POLITICO reported that the White House demanded “near‑total control of the money” from Japan and other countries.
This reinforces the idea that Trump viewed the funds as something he could direct unilaterally.
🟥 5. Analysts called it a “shadow sovereign wealth fund” because Trump would have final say
A Moneycontrol analysis described the arrangement as:
This is the clearest description of how Trump envisioned his authority:
He would personally decide where the $550 billion went.
Trouble is, with TACO’s lies, hyperbole and outright delusion, you cannot trust anything he says (although there always is a small kernel of truth). For instance he said he talked to the oil companies before and after the raid. But now he is talking to them on Friday.
It’s fascinating! The oil would be sold at market prices with the proceeds used to help the people of Venezuela, AND the people of the United States. I wonder what share the Venezuelans will get?
I will be interested to see how the oil companies respond to Trump’s requests. They do not want to invest in Venezuela. Their boards of directors and shareholders would be pretty upset with them if they do.
Can there be a scenario like “we will invest but with some guarantees from both governments”?
How could anyone anywhere trust either govt?
Sure. There are a lot of possible scenarios. And considering the uncertainty, and the low oil prices, it is difficult to see how US oil companies would be interested in spending huge capital outlays in Venezuela without some form of government subsidy or guarantee.
The question is, considering how often both governments break deals, “do you trust either government to live up to their commitments?”.
he’s gotta have some sort of tangible “win” out of this POS
oil companies are doubtful about investing a hundred billion over ten years to restore capacity when Trump will be gone in a few (out of office, in a memory care unit or pushing up daisies)
there is no way to “win” if he spends billions of US taxpayer dollars in improving Venezuelan lives when ugly reality is intruding into the little’s lives in the US
so, extort the oil, give work to the refineries that can process the dirty stuff, create another pot of money he controls that will be used to make empty promises with ($5000 DOGE dividend, anyone? Tariff rebate?) Use that money to create more mischief or wealth for the wealthy
More and more I get the feeling this isn’t about getting Venezuela’s oil, but rather it’s all just a ham-fisted way to control oil prices.
This would come in handy if, say, Israel attacks Iran, or to pressure Russia to the negotiating table (since they rely on elevated oil prices to fund their war effort).
I don’t know why you feel the need to anthropomorphize this bell end. You really think it does strategy? I don’t.
I do believe Bessent is dumb enough to think Russia will cave if oil prices fall.
= think Russia will cave if oil prices fall.
avg USA citizen even who attended ivy league university doesn’t have basic knowledge about Europe and-or russian history!
it is so sad!
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USSR developed nuclear, rocket and space programs before Russians DISCOVERED OIL-GAS in Siberia and started selling it from end of 1960xxx
alx
Trump is a small minded, ignorant fool with the worldview of a child. If he’d actually read a history book, he still wouldn’t realize that he’s headed down a well worn path of underestimating the culture and determination of people who are unfamiliar to him. The US became wealthy over the last century and a half by cooperating with many different cultures to make money for everyone. His bad decisions will reduce our standard of living significantly, as is already happening.
What an ass. He is unfortunately a reflection of the decline of the humility of the American people
Bingo! +100
Of course there needs to be stabilization, of course the infrastructure needs to be rebuilt, of course this is going to take time.
We’re pushing China out of our backyard.
I sure would like to know the history of how Venezuela went from a prospering country, with US oil leases, investments, then all of a sudden taken over by Chavez, kicking out oil companies.
Chavez won the election–several of them–by promising voters that he would keep Venezuela’s oil revenues in VZ, instead of letting Wall Street take it all.
Imagine that. Makes you wonder why that would be so popular. Everywhere.
Chavez convinced Venezuelans that the bulk of the nations oil wealth was being taken by foreign companies (mostly US), leaving crumbs for the Venezuelan people. At first he required all foreign oil firms to be minority (40%) joint partners with PDVSA. A year late he expropriated all their assets.
From CoPilot:
🧭 Why Chávez Did It
🟥 1. Ideological Motivation: “21st‑Century Socialism”
Chávez believed Venezuela’s oil wealth should be controlled by the state and used for social programs, not foreign corporations.
His government framed foreign oil companies as “imperialist” actors exploiting Venezuelan resources.💰 2. Revenue for Social Spending
Oil funded Chávez’s political project.
Nationalization allowed him to redirect billions into social missions, subsidies, and political patronage networks.🛡 3. Political Consolidation
By controlling PDVSA, Chávez:
Eliminated an independent power center (PDVSA had been semi‑autonomous and technocratic before 2002).Ensured loyalty by replacing experienced managers with political allies after the 2002–2003 oil strike.🌍 4. Resource Nationalism & Anti‑U.S. Posture
Chávez used nationalization to:
Assert sovereignty against the U.S. and multinational oil companies.Strengthen his geopolitical alliances (Cuba, Russia, China).Respond to long‑standing Venezuelan resentment over foreign dominance in the oil sector.⚖️ 5. High Oil Prices Made It Seem Low‑Risk
During the mid‑2000s oil boom, Chávez believed Venezuela could afford to push out foreign firms and still maintain production.
This confidence evaporated later as production collapsed.🏭 What Assets Were Seized?
Major companies affected included:
ConocoPhillips – lost multibillion‑dollar heavy‑oil projects in the Orinoco BeltExxonMobil – assets seized after refusing minority participationBP, Chevron, Total, ENI – forced into new joint ventures; some accepted, others fought arbitrationSmaller service companies also had equipment and facilities expropriated.📉 Consequences
Short‑term:
Boosted Chávez’s domestic popularityIncreased state revenue (temporarily)Long‑term:
Production collapsed due to mismanagement and lack of investmentPDVSA became heavily politicized and inefficientBillions in arbitration claims were filed against VenezuelaForeign companies became extremely cautious about returning to Venezuela
It’s pretty standard politics. Find an enemy to blame for something, and use that story to seize power and wealth. Notice any similarities?
Did you see my post: How Long Will it Take to Ramp Up Production of Venezuelan Oil?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-long-will-it-take-to-ramp-up-production-of-venezuelan-oil/
You got a huge quote
Hey Papa, need your expertise. Can we use the Ven.. Heavy with little financial investment? Can we move it here cost effectively? What Pitfalls if any?
Thanks in advance for your knowledge share!
Stu
Or you Mish? Thought of Papa first, and hit you by accident… I don’t know for certain,I think we can though…
Yes. We can use Venezuelan crude. And we already do. We imported 220,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude in 2024 and 110,000 bpd in 2025. Our gulf coast refineries are tuned to use this heavy crude. We used to import a lot more a few decades ago.
We don’t need to make any financial investment to use Venezuelan crude. Venezuela can spend the capital, do the hard work, produce it and export it to us at market prices. The problem is that their system is corrupt and falling apart, and their oil output has declined as a result. But there is no reason for the US to spend money to fix Venezuela’s problems. We can simply buy whatever oil that they manage to produce. And if they cannot produce enough, we can buy from other readily available sources like Guyana, Brazil, Canada and the Middle East.
Yes. We can move it here cost effectively. Moving oil by ship is the cheapest form of transporting oil. And we have a lot of refining on the gulf coast that can accept it. But we can also import oil from other locations by ship.
However, we cannot get Venezuelan oil to our midwest refineries that currently use Canadian oil. Unless we build new pipelines from the gulf coast to the midwest, or reverse the pipelines that currently flow in the other direction. So Venezuelan oil is only going to be used on the Gulf Coast.
Pitfalls. The biggest pitfall is thinking we should take over Venezuela’s oil industry and spend a few hundred billion to fix it.
Think about it. The chance of success in such an unstable environment makes companies very hesitant to invest the necessary capital. On the other hand, if we dream big, and successfully pull off a miracle and fix Venezuela’s oil industry, and dramatically increase their production, so that they are producing 10 mbpd, we will flood the market, crash prices, and never make a cent for our investment.
I did see that. I am honored. Thank you!
MVGA!
How many military bases does China have in our back yard? Now take a look at a map of the military installations the US has surrounding China. Time to wake up to reality and dust off the propaganda.
After Hurricane Maria devastated PR and the trump response I thought PR should have declared independence from the US. Stupid trump would have welcomed it and PR could have traded the largest Chinese Naval Port in the Atlantic for infrastructure rebuilding.
If enough money does not reach the common Venezuelan, in 5 or 10 yrs a revolt and a new govt. They will renationalize their oilfields for sure.
Nothing like more self dealing by taco who will push the envelope to the outer circumference of the earth.
This falls short. We should require every private/publicly-owned company in Latin America to obtain US preapprovals for all commercial arrangements. That way the Chinese and Russian won’t be able to trade in our hemisphere. Isn’t free market capitalism fun?
Remembering some of Trumps business ventures from years ago when I worked in NY. Promises big, lots of splash and a very quiet farewell. If the oil companies are smart they will be very cautious.
Refill the strategic oil reserve first. Events are unfolding in Iran that may lead the West to lift sanctions on oil resulting in a rapid grab by China and escalating world prices.
SPR Needs another 300 million barrels to top it off.
What events are unfolding in Iran and according to whom?
Pay attention!