“We are just in business to pay off our tariff debt.”
Small Businesses Describe Tariff Impact
Small business owners from across the country today detailed the devastating impact of tariffs on their ability to stock shelves and compete during the holiday shopping season.
A coalition of over 800 small businesses, retailers shared firsthand accounts of inventory shortages, forced price increases, and financial strain during what should be their most profitable time of year. The briefing included new analysis of Census data revealing the tariff burden on popular holiday shopping categories.
Tariff Increases
- Christmas decorations: Average tariff rate jumped from 0.8% to 23.3%, with American companies paying $409 million in tariffs
- Toys: Average tariff rate increased from 0.0% to 22.3%, with companies paying $1.2 billion in tariffs
- Playing cards, dice, and board games: Average tariff rate rose from 0.0% to 22.5%, with $73 million paid in tariffs
- Musical instruments: Average tariff rate increased from 6.0% to 20.8%, with $157 million paid in tariffs
- Speakers and headphones: Average tariff rate jumped from 1.6% to 15.6%, with $773 million paid in tariffs
- Video game consoles: Average tariff rate rose from 0.0% to 15.2%, with $325 million paid in tariffs
- Pet products: Average tariff rate increased from 5.3% to 28.5%, with $124 million paid in tariffs
- Apparel: Average tariff rate rose from 15.0% to 27.3%, with $16 billion paid in tariffs
- Wine and spirits: Average tariff rate increased from 0.4% to 7.6%, with $423 million paid in tariffs
Small Business Voices from Main Street
Joann Cartiglia, Owner, The Queen’s Treasures (Ticonderoga, New York): “Our sales so far in November are 50% down from last year because of availability. In the meantime, I am trying to reinvent myself so I don’t have to declare bankruptcy. This is an assault on small business and innovation. When we should be creating new products, we’re not.”
Boyd Stephenson, Owner, Game Kastle College Park (College Park, Maryland): “We’ve seen massive supply shocks in the U.S. with price increases on trading card games. Some of these products doubled in price, going from $50 a pack to over $100. It wasn’t because there was a shortage of the product—it was because there was a shortage of the product in the U.S. Prices are up about 20% across the board. Board games have seen price increases anywhere between $5 and $20. Role-playing games like D&D have gone up in price by about 20%. And accessories—things like paints, dice, and miniatures—have all also risen in price by about 20%.”
Jared Hendricks, Owner, Village Lighting Co. (West Valley City, Utah): “We’re approaching a million dollars in tariffs this year that weren’t in the budget, weren’t in the forecast, and frankly, weren’t in the cash flow, so we had to finance that. At this point, we’ve transitioned from working for profits to working for tariffs. We are just in business to pay off our tariff debt.”
Aaron Brown, Owner, Town Center Music (Suwanee, Georgia): “We lost $12,000 worth of sales during our busiest month of the year—August, which is back-to-school time. We couldn’t get $12,000 worth of instruments into our store because of the confusion in the ports over who’s paying who what. We just could not get the instruments in to be able to sell to school kids in a community that we really need. Watching all of these things be tossed around by a policy that seems capricious at best has been hard to take.”
Anne Robinson, Owner, Scottish Gourmet USA LLC (Greensboro, North Carolina): “We raised prices to offset the tariffs we paid. In the last three months, I’ve paid an extra $30,000 on top of the tariffs I would have already normally paid. We’ve also been hit by worldwide price increases on coffee, tea, chocolate, and beef because I’m in the food world. The chaos caused by the tariffs and the huge uncertainty they created have left us now with expensive debt, higher prices, and lost sales.”
This story is from We Pay the Tariffs.
We Pay the Tariffs is comprised of small businesses that believe that by banding together and raising our voices, we have a better chance of influencing policy decisions and securing a more stable future for ourselves and our employees.
Those interested in the organization, sharing your story, or joining a march on June 25 in Washington DC, may wish to to consider We Pay the Tariffs Small Business Instructions.
The Idiots Cheer
There is no “free tariff money” from foreign countries. American businesses and American consumers pay the tariffs.
Only idiots cheer higher prices and putting small businesses out of business.
I sympathize and wave a symbolic flag in support. Unfortunately, Trump is an economic illiterate who just does not give a damn about small businesses except farmers.
Trump proudly collects money from US small businesses and consumers and wants to redistribute the money to farmers who lost export business when China retaliated.
His latest vote-buying scheme is to redistribute tariff money in $2,000 rebate checks.
No jobs will return to the US over this nonsense. Tariffs are a net destroyer of jobs while driving up prices in the short term.
Related Posts
February 11, 2025: Trump’s Steel Tariffs Now Will Work as Good as the First Time
Q: How’s that? A: Very poorly.
March 13, 2025: The Amazing “Success” of Trump’s 2018 Aluminum Tariffs in One Picture
I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.
September 6, 2025: Trump’s Aluminum Tariffs Seriously Backfire Already
Tariffs did not and will not bring production back to the US.
October 2, 2025: Trump Seeks a $10 to $14 Billion Farmer Bailout
Tariffs backfired on US agricultural exports.
November 27, 2025: Deere to Take a Big Tariff Tax Hit of $1.2 Billion in Fiscal 2026
Deere flags a bigger hit from tariffs in 2026 than 2025.
The furniture tariffs decimated my wife’s employer, VCF, a 75 year furniture chain. Entered Ch 11 last week, 3,500 about to lose their jobs in Jan. Ironically, this of course hits their furniture manufacturers in the Carolinas. Will be a net loss of manufacturing jobs in the end.
Thanks for commenting.
And best wishes too!
Mish
“Reasoning” and “Politics” are not to be uttered in the same Paragraph. We are to “do as we are told” with such shit as: “Big Beautiful tariffs.”
Jesus, help us escape from this crap.
The GOP went and starved public education, now Americans are much less intelligent than they were a generation ago. But nobody on the right will ever admit there’s a correlation. They’ll just prattle on about Woke, DEI, bombing drug boats is good, “I’m afraid of who might come into the public bathroom,” and other nonsense like that.
It is NOT just Trump. “Obamacare” was the “Affordable Care Act.” NOTHING was affordable after that Ass screwed us.
Reagan pissed on your leg and said it was raining
Trump imposed high tariffs so he could lower them to make private lucrative deals for himself. He did this in many countries. Some countries wanted weapons so they found a way to pay off Trump with naming rights or actual money. Worst & most corrupt President in American history. Trump is a sadistic, swaggering, slandering psychopath who has harmed America. He’s harmed NATO, Canada, Mexico….the whole world is tired of this greedy, corrupt fool.
tds
Turns out tariffs are a weapon of mass small business destruction.
Today is small business Saturday. A reminder not to not just run to the big box stores or online for Christmas presents, but befriend the small retailers, as well.
Gold coins are exempt from tariffs. Large gold bars not so much. Expect not Straw Spun into Gold, but for Bars to be Spun into Coin. I am watching the Bar-Coin index like a hawk.
Triumph, Lootnik, De Basement and Tiran are runing the US economic policy. What can go wrong with this squad in charge?
I’ve been waiting for this reality to more significantly impact the private credit markets as i would imagine a lot of these companies are borrowers. we haven’t seen that yet to my knowledge. anybody have any insights or data?
ah, the gang of larps. shocking. you guys must be talking to each other over video games.
My .02
In our local market, the closure and moving of an Aluminum aircraft part manufacturer to Canada resulted in eleven homes being sold and ten ($150k/year earning) families moving to Canada. The long term impact to our community will be well over $50 million dollars over five years. The real estate market absorbed 8 of the 11 homes so far. The last three have reduced price and are getting stale. No sign of foreclosure there, our single family market has been reasonably resilient.
In the agricultural market? Things are bad for smaller family farms. I know of three, 2 x 40 and 1 x 120 acre farms that are failed within 7 miles of my amalgamation of farms and land. All three have loans and back taxes with balances well above liquidation value and our local bank, equipment dealer and farm store are on the hook.
I am negotiating on two of the parcels and anticipate adding 160 acres to my modest agribusiness.
are those farms suffering from tariff related issues or were they limping coming into this year? our local housing market has slowed as well but nothing seems concerning as of now, more like compensating for the front-loaded price increases prior to 23. i keep thinking the private credit markets should show direct issues from the small-to-mid private businesses but, to my knowledge, returns are still backed by actual cash/payments and not from substituting equity in lieu of payment.
Lots of nice items out there not subject to tariffs. Time to buy American as instructed.
You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you get what you need.
Oh yeah!
Ours is not to reason why. but to profit from the circumstances. Isn’t that what we are all here for.
OK, dear zionist leader. We’ll stay stupid for your pleasure.
This comment “Ours is not to reason why. but to profit from the circumstances. Isn’t that what we are all here for.” was hyperbole. I was making fun of a famous commenter on here who gets lots of down votes. Boy this down vote feeling is addictive. I’ve got to learn to control myself.
the more rationale things you say, the more you get. lots of 20-40 year olds on here who’ve never done anything real in life.
All the world wonder’d.
What do you call a people who don’t make most of the things they consume (which they get for free simply by printing electronic digits at zero cost to them) yet impose tariffs on them taking money out of their pockets and handing it over to their government to subsidize AI that censors, fools and fires them?
Those are AMERICANS.
And what do you call the people who are STUPID enough to ship their valuable products and resources to Americans who pass tariffs on them to subsidize their Military Industrial Complex with the aim of KILLING the Chinese?
Those would be the CHINESE and the rest of the world to varying degrees.
Now tell me about one science fiction novel that’s more INSANE than that.
I take it we don’t understand the concept of abstract value?
I take it we think we can eat philosophy?
This is really an incredible statement seeing as tech is currently all that’s propping the US economy up. Let’s go back to a barter system instead, I’m sure that’ll work better than free trade.
BS
AI is not the economy. It’s a fraud perpetrated by Democrats and Republicans together to screw the American people.
“Now tell me about one science fiction novel that’s more INSANE than that.”
Try the “Constitution of the People’s Republic of China” for a start.
Can we find the Billy Bob dipshit who was talking on here about how he “didn’t see the tariffs” last month and give him a tar and feathering now?
No, tariffs made the tar too expensive
I’m undecided whether he’s wrong or right about everything. (China has more sovereignty than the rest of BRICS…and I think risk of USA attacks on Nigeria are higher than he suggests, although maybe he means only within a very short time period.) But this discussion deserves everyone’s consideration.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci_peCMkfuk
Well maybe it’s good that all small businesses go under anyway. Who needs them. It’s much easier for all of us to shop online or visit our local Walmart for all of our Christmas shopping. That way we can go see Grandpa or mom more often at the local Walmart greeting customers at the entrance or checking receipts at the exits to stop all the illegals from shoplifting.
I ordered a hobby item from Spain. It is currently in customs. If the tariff is more than 5%, I’ll have it returned to sender.
Great Elvis tune.
Tell him to eat the tariff or no deal.
i ordered tea from Japan couple of months ago, from a place I ordered from for years.
it got stuck in a warehouse in kentucky and they wouldn’t send it along. the retailer said they’re having massive problems due to tariffs but that it would jsut be delayed. it wasn’t. after another month of nothing, the last shipping update is that the product was destroyed because it couldn’t clear customs. it must have been the same confusion in some of the stories above, with chaos about who is paying how much etc… i got the charge reversed, but the retailer lost that package and didn’t get paid.
it’s a Japanese business but has a US sub., and losing that biz obviously hurts Americans .. it has to be warehoused domestically, trucked domestically etc.. all that economic activity is gone and hurts US businesses.
also, this isn’t helping domestic tea growers because there aren’t any.
The US does grow tea and its production is doubling every year.
there’s like 1 in North Carolina, and tiny family ones. i once got some from the south (not NC) and it was horrible. The plantation was run by Chinese immigrants who were marketing it as bringing a taste of China to the US . . . good story but it was crap.
i see there’s one in Finger Lakes NY which I am sure i as good as the wine from Finger Lakes New York (it’s terrible– but the wineries are still worth visiting in summer for the whole experience).
i may try the one in NC, but cant’ imagine the one from western NY is even drinkable.
in any event, the US supply cant’ conceivably meet demand for tea, not even .00001%. Trump didn’t put tariffs on Japan to protect the US tea industry.
Great empires start from small beginnings Antony. You said we don’t grow tea but we do so I showed you that we do. It is not as if we couldn’t grow it here. We can and do and if the market is good enough we could grow it in many places all over the US. The Southeast US is perfect for growing tea. You should have used better example.
The shite that the US produces is not tea, it’s bilge water
Similar then to most of Doug78’s post. They’ll be growing tea in the Alsace soon.
Trump is trying to bring back manufacturing
but lots countries are saying NO and will sell to BRICS instead
all I can say is that I have plenty of tax deductions
think maybe 60% won’t be paying income tax this year(or in future)
the exponential debt IS MAKING paupers out of everyone(MISH might make it longer than rest being in 1%) but in end 99.9% are going bankrupt
1st slowly then quickly(many are now on the quickly plan)
BRICS as a currency is headed nowhere.
But Trump is forcing countries like Canada to trade more with China
And Trump has forced China and Russia together and declare their support for Venezuela. I expect a proxy war utilizing Russian and Chinese drones to attack US oil facilities in and around the Gulf of Mexico.
Thank Trump!
What goes around comes around…
After the debacle of the Euro, I would tend to agree that unless not something special, like being backed by gold reserves, a BRICS currency is unlikely to thrive.
No one likes tariffs, but they are a necessary evil. The US has lost so much of its industrial base, it would have a difficult time defending itself and its allies in a major war.
If the tariffs don’t reverse the damage to the industrial base, more draconian measures will become necessary. This is a national security issue.
Yes, we have to defend ourselves from the drug traffickers in Venezuela, the Mullahs in Iran who were just recently reported by Netanyahu to be just days away from a nuclear weapon, and the crazies in Yemen, Hezbollah and Hamas who no doubt have millions of terrorists in sleeper cells getting ready to attack Synagogues, our schools and shopping malls. And don’t forget all the white supremacists in Europe and here in the States. As Biden so frequently warned us, they are our greatest threat. Diversity is our Strength and tariffs will make us strong. BTW, has Apple finished moving all their iPhone manufacturing back to the USA from Cina and India? I know Trump is working hard to import a few million more Indian H1-Vs and Chinese students to help us with the affordability issue.
Why did you forget about protecting ourselves from China and Russia?
Bullshit!
The US now has lost access to rare earths for our sophisticated military uses because of Trumps tariffs. Rare earths are far more important in our value added economic paradigm than the worship of 1950’s Dark Ages technology of industrial production. Trumps asinine policy of denying American manufacturers of lower priced steel and aluminum is costing jobs as no one is building new aluminum smelters where electricity is expensive and there is no excess capacity.
Is Trump ignorant or malicious. Take your pick…
“Rare Earths” is a category on the Periodic Table Of Elements from way back, nothing more.
You know better, and anyone importing modern magnets or sophisticated chips and sensors for military applications does as well.
You are behind the curve on the rare earth question. Much has happened in the last six months and two new aluminum smelters have broken ground that will triple US production by 2030.
Export of Rare Earths to companies that are affiliated with the US military are expressly prohibited by China. Thanks to Donald T-rump
LMAO ~ We produce less Aluminum now than we did in 2017 when Trumps first round of tariffs started.
Where is the Bauxite going to come from?
Where is the electricity going to come from?
Even when the UAE facility in Oklahoma completed or the Century facility is renovated and production doubles, they will not touch US demand. (Although one can speculate that demand will shrink dramatically with our faltering economy).
Broken ground? Nope. One smelter will hopefully begin construction in a years time. The other is still jn the planning stage. Neither have a long term power supply contract or an electricity price. And without cheap power they will not be competitive.
So why are we building useless energy thirsty Ai centers?
The US industrial base was not lost due to unfair trade practices. Educate yourself a little before you make inane comments.
“What is Wall Street, Alex?”
Clearly this argument makes no sense.
I work in the defense industry, in aerospace. If we had to purchase all parts for the satellite we build, it would be 1.5x more expensive and take years longer to build if the supply chain were 100% on shore. For example, there are no credible on shore builders of star trackers, which are necessary components of satellites. To on shore that, it would take 5 years and any future domestic supplier would be way more expensive (we actually looked at this); when we told this to the Government, they decided that it was ok for foreign suppliers after all. Same story for basic components like resistors and capacitors (basic building blocks of electronics). Try procuring domestically produced, space qualified resistors and caps, good luck with that.
I could go on, but the industry base argument is ludicrous. No way you could do this short of delaying defense procurements for years and doubling the defense budget to pay for future existing domestic supply chain.
Don’t debate this with me, debate it with the Department of Defense.
So if it takes 5 years and costs more, so what? National security is expensive.
Defeat is even more expensive.
Defeat happens when we cannot support a war effort with our industrial base.
Seriously, you both don’t understand critical thinking. Just asserting ‘make it so’ is not a solution. It is delusion.
When China can build bombs, and we cant, it is game over. Figure it out.
Yes. They are both delusional dumb f*cks. They think that the US can produce anything instantly with the snap of their fingers. They have no clue about how the real world works.
..
Actually it is insecurity that is expensive.
Due to Trumps insecurity and inability to get along with anyone but Fox News and the 70 million that voted for him, I think that the market for US products is shrinking dramatically as will as the economy of America itself.
China is selling to all of the 8 billion people on earth. Thanks to Trump the US is selling to 350 million Americans. Of course your scenario requires the US to print more trillions so things can be more expensive and unavailable for five years?
The lack of logic is stunning!
Our allies are falling away quickly…
Pick up a graduate level book on international economics and read it.
That’s what happens when you give up an important part of your industrial base. It comes back to bite you. The only thing to do is to rebuild it back even if it costs you. It seems the money saved was not really saved at all. It was just diverted into someone else’s pocket. Let’s divert it back.
I mean you are seriously not thinking. The DoD realized that it was ludicrous to on shore this because they actually want to procure the systems that they are mandated by Congress to procure. You can’t wish industry into existence by asserting ‘let’s divert it back’. You’re trying to square a circle that can’t be squared.
haha I guess deficits don’t exist in your universe. Or apparently, the need to build military systems in a timely fashion is also not important.
You are worried about the US being able to defend itself, but how can we do that if we can’t procure defense systems in a timely fashion or within a budget? Dear lord, do some critical thinking.
The Navy just cancelled the Constellation class frigates because we can’t build them due to a lack of qualified shipbuilders. Those jobs are on shore. If we don’t have qualified labor to build systems on shore, do you really think we have the infrastructure to on shore more of the supply chain? Dear lord.
Your filthy, greedy US CEOs moved the manufacturing out off the US to make additional profit.
Allies. What allies??? You’ve p****d them all off.
If your small company depends 100% on selling imports then of course you will be hit hard. However if your company makes the same products inside the country then you are doing much better. Perhaps the best strategy would be to manufacture inside the country even though it goes against free market principles which we all know are right 100% of the time.
Yes, Let’s manufacture in the US, increase costs by 35% or whatever, lose money and go out of business when sales fall and/or customers still buy elsewhere.
It is better to pay a bit more to make in country than to pay for the imports by using debt because that is what we are doing now.
What nonsense. There are many things we cannot produce at any price here. We have no bauxite to make aluminum from. We have almost no potash for fertilizer. We have little to no ship building capacity left. We have closed over 30 aluminum smelters because they were uncompetitive; leaving just 4 to supply just 25% of our market. We do not have enough heavy oil to provide to our refineries. And so much more.
Tariffs will not change any of these things.
Dumb f*ck.
Although I share your sentiment on tariffs for the most part, Trump did a dang good thing the other day when he exempted several items from tariffs.
I’m not sure if you’ve bothered to look at the list of food products and goods that are exempted from any tariff as of November 13, but it’s well over 1,000 food products and goods.
The list is over 90 pages long and can be read in Annex II of EO 14257.
EO 14257 was the April 2 EO Trump signed that placed reciprocal tariffs on literally every nation we trade with.
Annex I to said EO was the original list of goods that Trump exempted from tariffs via that EO back on September 2.
Annex II is the new list of food products and goods exempted from tariffs on November 13.
The list goes well beyond the coffee, orange juice and bananas the media ran with and the single greatest category of goods Trump has eliminated tariffs on is oil, everything we refine from oil and everything we use to refine oil into various fuels.
It includes hundreds of food products and an even longer list of things we use in the manufacturing of various goods as well as goods we do not produce enough of or do not produce at all.
This is the single greatest thing Trump could’ve done to help improve everyone’s personal finances.
I follow gasoline and diesel pump prices daily and keep a running spreadsheet.
As of today, the national average for cheap gasoline is at $3.012/gallon which isn’t just the low since Trump was sworn in, but it’s the lowest it’s been since May 2021.
Oil prices, RBOB futures prices and ULSD futures prices are all down from the day Trump was sworn in.
ULSD futures prices hit a high under Trump back on November 18 and have since fallen quite a bit.
As a whole, import prices haven’t increased anywhere outside of the norm since Trump was sworn in, at least according to the import/export data released monthly by the BLS.
With Trump removing tariffs on hundreds of food products and even more goods, most importantly oil and fuel related, we will see improvements in the weeks and months ahead.
Despite the individual experiences from companies and people themselves, I don’t think tariffs have had much impact on overall inflation and prices.
Again, that’s according to the official data which we all know isn’t exactly known for its accuracy.
I’d suggest that diesel pump prices have been the main driver of price increases of late.
For the record, they became higher YoY nationally back at the beginning of September and hit a YoY price premium high of $0.259/gallon nationally earlier this month.
That’s fallen to $0.201/gallon since, but that is still costing around $30 million more per day to satisfy our daily demand for diesel fuel.
Despite WTI, Brent, RBOB and ULSD futures prices being quite a bit lower since January 20, we haven’t seen that translate to YoY savings at the pump.
I’d imagine that’s because of the shortfall of oil imports from Canada having to be made up from elsewhere and Trump’s tariffs on imports of oil and oil related products.
No need to get into specifics, but we get an overwhelming amount of our imported oil from Canada, about 60%, which happens to have the cheapest oil in the world by a wide margin and it obviously costs considerably less to import it from Canada than it does the ME or Europe.
Anyhow, it’s not as bad for YoY gasoline prices, but as of today, 49 states and DC have higher pump prices for diesel fuel than they did a year ago.
Only Hawaii is seeing slightly lower prices.
Quite a few states are seeing higher prices for 1 to all 3 grades of gasoline YoY too, but those numbers have improved quite a bit since November 21.
I have no doubt that higher YoY fuel prices for businesses is driving prices higher on a monthly basis and not so much tariffs.
We’ve already seen improvements in pump prices since November 13 and we will continue to see that improve in the days, weeks and months ahead given how much oil, gasoline, diesel fuel and numerous other fuels we import on a daily basis.
These tariff free imports are being felt immediately and daily and will continue to filter their way through the economy to store shelves and gasoline pumps and will play a large roll in bringing down the rate of inflation.
If one were to compare the inflation data from February through May and then June through September, they’d notice Trump was doing quite well over those first four months, but a complete reversal over the last four.
where’s the $2/gallon gas?
Most of America uses conventional gasoline and not reformulated gasoline. Conventional gasoline is quite a bit cheaper than the reformulated variety. There are plenty locations in the U.S. with prices of gasoline below $2/gallon. As a matter of fact, KKTV 11 in Colorado Springs, CO reported that gasoline was $1.97 at the Maverik gas station on Maizeland and Academy. Try spending a bit of time going to gasbuddy dot com and you will see thousands of gas stations throughout America with gas at the $2 level and lower.
The day of the election a gallon of regular cost $2.96. Today it costs $3.29 at the same gas station in the mid-west. Losing Canada as an economic ally is having significant effect on fuel costs for midwestern farmers.
Canada is still sending crude to the US and will continue because Alberta’s prospects of exporting by sea are pretty much sunk now since BC is refusing new pipelines and Quebec is refusing to allow exports through the St. Laurence waterway. The only way is south to the US.
1995
Poster stated R-B-O-B.
It’s a thing – with no retail taxes – from any governors who look like they should be roasting on a spit with an apple in their mouth.
Since 92% of Canadian products enter the US tariff-free vs 85% of Mexico’s, Canada is the most favored nation by far when it comes to trade with the US. That’s why neither Carney nor Trump are worried even though they trade barbs for the peanut gallery.
In fairness to Canada, we import most of our oil from Canada which is still currently traded at $46.30/barrel. It is by far the cheapest oil in the world and obviously the closest to our refiners. Although we have a trade deficit with Canada, if we were to remove the oil from trade, we have a trade surplus with Canada. Furthermore, by getting 60% of our oil imports from Canada, they are tremendously beneficial in keeping our gas prices low due to the low cost of their oil and the low cost to import it from next door. I assure you though that Carney is concerned if one were to look at Canadian exports to the U.S. We are, by an insanely large margin, the largest exporting location for Canadian goods than anywhere else in the world. Heck, we import exponentially more goods from Canada than the rest of the world combined.
Heck, we import exponentially more goods from Canada than the rest of the world combined.
Well NO. However we Canada is a huge trading partner, and excluding oil we run a trade surplus. Factor in services and it’s a substantial surplus.
I made the same point about running a surplus if oil were removed and yes, we run a nice trade surplus in services. We also benefit tremendously from Canadian oil given its cost versus oil from elsewhere, not to mention it obviously costs a lot less to import from Canada than anywhere else which also helps to keep costs down for refiners and ultimately what we pay.
I would love to have a free-trade zone with Canada but Canada has some serious cleaning up to do in certain specific areas before that happens.
When LNG Canada LNG opened their facility at Kitimat BC in the summer of 2025 ~ (after Trump declared economic war on Canada) all of the Gas for the next 20 years was promptly contracted to China. Originally it was thought to be headed to California.
Additionally, the new oil pipelines and LNG terminals are all for export to China and Chinese oil companies that were not allowed to operate in Canada are financing the buildouts. Call it show for the peanut gallery, but the truth is that the economic damage caused by Trumps threatening to attack and his tariffs against Canada is tremendous.
As I have mentioned an aircraft part manufacture where I live is moving his company and 75% of his employees and their families across the border to Canada because of the tariffs.
Denial is strong with the Trumpers!
BC is blocking new pipelines so the Chinese trade will remain be small. As for economic damage, that is coming from the deluge of Canadia firms relocating to the US because of Canada’s own economic policies. Nutrien decided to build their new terminal in Washington state because the economic and political reasons were overwhelming and not because of Trump.
Nope. Carney, Smith and Eby are negotiating behind closed doors. My sources tell me that BC will be getting roughly $300 billion in capital spending on energy projects. Alberta will get $50 billion in new pipelines built. Aboriginal communities get part ownership. And Carney gets the economic boost he needs. Win, win, win.
Yes, let’s praise Trump for idiotic tariffs after he removes some of them.
Halleluiah!
By the way, I did say it was a start.
Mish, I didn’t praise the guy. I just said he did something quite beneficial for prices and inflation. For the record, I don’t use social media at all outside of Facebook. I despise social media, but I keep in touch with a ton of real life friends and family via facebook. If it weren’t for that, I wouldn’t even use facebook and its why my friends list is so small. Anyhow, I give Trump a ton of shit on FB, particularly when it comes to his tariff nonsense. I also give him credit where credit is due. I would add that his advisors should’ve told him on day one that we do not produce numerous goods or food products we consume and what we do produce is nowhere near enough to satisfy demand. He should’ve exempted many things from day one, but I’d rather see him do it now than not do it all. I don’t suffer from Trump derangement syndrome now do I suffer from Trump worship syndrome. All I did in my comment is explain how we can expect to see pump prices finally start coming down. If you have an argument to tell me how I’m incorrect, I’d love to hear it. If not, I trust I won’t hear anything.
Hi Naet. First, let me congratulate you for attempting to present some actual facts to back up your statements. That is so refreshing when compared to dumb f*cks like Doug who can only make ignorant politically-motivated comments without any facts or data.
Yes. As you say, Trump did a good thing by dropping or eliminating tariffs on 1000+ items. Too bad he put them on in the first place.
Now, if he would just do the same for the other 17,000 item categories he put tariffs on. Particularly for the inputs that so many US businesses must import.
I also like your reference to Canada and the oil we import from them. Yes. We must import a lot of Canadian oil; 4.5 mbpd. And yes, it is cheaper than any other oil we can get. What a great deal for us.
However, I don’t think the US ever put a 10% tariff on Canadian oil as you implied.Though it was threatened to be put in place on April 1, it was never implemented. Also a good thing.
Regarding Canadian oil exports to other countries. These are increasing as TMX capacity increases each month. Exports have increased from 300,000 bpd to 800,000 bpd since TMX ramped up. And they will max out at 890,000 bpd. The TMX will further increase capacity by 90,000 bpd by late 2026 and another 270,000 bpd by late 2027.
Additionally, the Canadian and Alberta governments have also just signed an agreement to allow for new export pipelines to be built if/as needed.
This extra export capacity will further decrease the wti/wcs differential.
Hey PapaDave,
Thank you for the compliment. I tend to look at data to form my positions on everything and drown out the noise, so I also tend to justify my line of thinking whenever I opine about something.
I give Trump crap often for his haphazard tariff war with the world. He’s done it in such a chaotic manner that it’s hard to even keep up with what his tariffs are and on what countries and product categories.
I applaud his intentions, but he got some piss poor advice from his advisors when he slapped tariffs on pretty much everything and every country we trade with.
Given that, the only thing I want to see is some common damn sense start to sink into his head and the exemptions on November 13 are his greatest positive change to date.
He’s made so many damn changes based on his mood or which side of the bed he woke up on that it’s hard to keep up, but I did a quick search concerning tariffs on Canadian oil.
As I remembered it, he put 10% tariffs on Canadian energy with 25% on everything else. I came across an article on a Canadian site dated early March that the 10% tariff on Canadian oil was very much in place.
Canadian officials were quoted in the article and were none too pleased. This is the link…. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/canada-us-trade-tariffs-trump-alberta-oil-energy-sector-1.7474193#content
I looked to see if those tariffs had been removed when Trump exempted several goods from both Mexico and Canada under the USMCA.
Ironically enough, Trump negotiated the USMCA and bragged about how it was the greatest trade deal ever signed since the first one among warring cavemen clans. It sucks now and we’ve been getting ripped off according to him, so obviously the trade deal sucked.
Anyhow, I also came across the guidance on U.S. energy imports from Canada by BHY International which had last been updated on May 15.
Here’s the link…. https://www.ghy.com/trade-compliance/guidance-on-us-energy-imports-from-canada/
According to that link, oil is not exempted from 10% tariffs if it was entered for consumption after the effective date of said tariffs.
Numerous other energy products were also not exempted according to that link.
Things may have changed since, but I couldn’t find any confirmation that the 10% tariffs were ever removed.
Either way, they absolutely were removed on November 13, along with literally every fuel made from oil and everything used in refining oil into various fuels.
Those exemptions are worldwide no matter where they come from.
As I trust you’re aware, we import far more than just oil when energy is concerned.
Here’s the Annex II list as well of everything now exempted from tariffs….
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025ReciprocalTariff.AgriculturalProducts.eo_.rel-ANNEXES.pdf?fbclid=IwY2xjawOZW1ZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEetEJV1Jwg-6aDI_-gs7XlgG5BxRSGb3ys52Vw_jSyWpCbJONgE3js2MBxMMY_aem_qL5R_dzZ-GInlTRYqSTw0Q
As far as Canada making up lost U.S. exports to other countries, that’s for a follow up comment given the length of this one already, but I’d suggest that is FAR easier said than done.
Thank you Naet for sharing your research and analyses. I would add that the Canadian government is planning to expand their oil transport capability form Alberta to Ontario refineries to bolster domestic industry and offset some of the need to import petroleum products from the US.
Kinder Morgan has a pipeline from Alberta to the west coast they planned to twin some ten years ago, but they ended up jettisoning the project due to permit issues. It is now being built by Canadians. The bottom line is Canada is preparing means to market its exported petroleum other than to the US due to the sudden loss in confidence in American confidence.
Mega-blockades continue into their fourth day as their effects start to hurt
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mega-blockades-trucker-farmer-protests/
The U.S. government has caused massive food waste during President Donald Trump’s second term
https://theconversation.com/as-us-hunger-rises-trump-administrations-efficiency-goals-cause-massive-food-waste-270027
@ Mish
>> Unfortunately, Trump is an economic illiterate who just does not give a damn about small businesses except farmers.
He’s just doing what oligarchs want. Wage war, prepare for larger war, and try to make the serfs, everywhere in the empire, pay for it.
Who’s “illiterate”? The oligarchs’ chief liar paid to lie about their policies (impacts, justifications)? Or serfs who think he’s deciding policy or that the oligarchs don’t know which “economics” matter to them?
TDS sufferer
sigh
Says the guy with TWS.
Like the info you share, but, your bias against Trump is shows through so many times. As far as tariffs go, I’m fine with paying a bit more to see manufacturing come back to America. It’s going to take time but it will be worth it down the road. All the naysayers have been wrong so far on the economy including you Mish…
No one has been as evenly handed on Trump as me. The fact is, he is a proven economic idiot. Period.
I have defended Trump countless times and and even did a post on it.
As far a paying a “little more” it’s not a little, and won’t bring jobs back in “aggregate”
I guess time will tell who’s right. Mark my words, you’ll be making all sorts of excuses in about 2yrs. Hold on, the USA is going to make it!
The cost of the welfare state is being placed squarely in front of the voting public at the cash register. And now that customers have a choice to pay higher prices, or not) to support welfare, they are choosing not to support it.
Are you referring to the massive welfare subsidies paid to corporate farmers?
A better strategy would have to allow them to sell to foreign markets.
As a quiz, what should be done with all that surplus grain in the stuffed grain elevators all across the country? In some markets corn is being left unharvested because there is no where to put it…
The stupidity of Trumps philosophy of “Fire, Ready, Aim” can not be underestimated.
Depends. Is the surplus grain being doused with Roundup?
Lets stop exporting our top soil
Congress just recently voted to condemn socialism and socialism is eating our lunch, couldn’t make this up if you worked at it.
Good thing they did not condemn Fascism. Trumps entire oligarchy would be in trouble.
JOBS in America need to grow ASAP–43 million on SNAP, 50 million illegals many on assistance—The debt at $35 trillion debasing the dollar—Small import retailers will disappear mainly due to online purchases
So why is Trump crushing small businesses which are the heart and soul of economic growth?
Oh, boo hoo. The US makes some very fine wine.
Agreed.
And toys? Who cares 99% were coming from China
Video games? good, we need less of them and more importantly less kids playing them
Pet products? who cares? remember the toxic dog food scandal that poisoned a lot of dogs.
Americans spend so much money on crap that is not needed and most of that is made in china.
Put the kids to work. Table scraps for the dog kick the 30-year-old out of the basement and tell to get a job.
I thought this was a joke but I guess child labor does fit with how Trump views kids eh Doug?
You heard it here folks! Child labor to feed your fat lazy Grandpa’s pension!
It’s called doing “chores” like I did when I was a kid. I suppose you didn’t do those things when you were a kid but then again in many ways you still are a kid as many of your generation still are. That’s why you didn’t understand what I said. That or perhaps it is just plain bad faith. Which is it.
That’s great Doug. I worked hard as a kid, got a free ride through school, and I’m very successful in my 20s. You’re a “parasite” living on retirement bucks. See the difference?
The difference is you still want government hand outs to give you more money than to put into the system to account for information while loudly squawking when government money goes to anyone else. Then, to add insult to injury, you tell people who actually work and contribute to society actively that they can just do with a little less for Christmas this year! Kids don’t need any toys nearly as bad as Grandpa needs his government healthcare, after all. And since we can’t have both in your worldview, let me propose a solution: We take all of the baby boomers who can’t keep working, put them on an iceberg, and float them out into the sea! Since all that matters is profit and not liberal things like “ethics” or “morals”, culling the herd is a sound financial decision that will allow working people to eliminate a huge burden on the system.
Here we go comparing dick sizes Creamer. Successful people usually don’t complain about seniors because they are successful. Unsuccessful people love to blame seniors for their lack of success and want them to give them money so they can buy something they want but cannot afford.
You’re dodging the question Doug, which is funny because you started the dick comparisons and got cold feet all of a sudden. Why should productive Americans pay for old people’s welfare? Why should getting old be a taxpayer problem? If the kids just need to work harder and not ask for handouts, and the poor just need to work harder to not starve, why does a guy doing no work currently need a big fat slice of taxes he doesn’t pay into? Please, explain how this is anything other than welfare mooching by your own logic.
soon, a quantum shift in the consumer value equation
will redfine both the buying power of the currency and the goods available in the market
supply and demand are consequences of changes in persoanal value, price is a consequence as well
Hasn’t China, South East Asia and Europe been tariffing us for years. Are there economies all in decline and no small businesses exist?
How has Asisa been able to grow with Tariffs?
From Google: Before President Trump took office, the average U.S. tariff on imports from Europe was approximately 1.47%, while the average European tariff on U.S. imports was roughly 1.35%. These rates are based on World Trade Organization (WTO) “most-favored nation”
As you see, the usa charged higher tariffs to begin with. And they were a fraction of the percentages in this post. So no, europe did not tariff the USA more than the usa did before, and when you compare the Numbers it’s easy to easy why so many businesses are now struggling. But hey, at least they can rejoice that the farmers get bailed out with the money that would have been their profits.
Don’t average them – show them by product sectors. Average means nothing. Europe will tax every package above something like $30 (including the shipping cost). Do you remember what was the cost for packages entering US that will put them through customs – $800. Do you remember how many packages were entering US this way every day – 2 million just from China 🙂 Do you remember how many industries China killed by subsidizing their export and what happened when they killed the competition?
The only thing I don’t like is that Trump changes his mind every day and he us on votes buying spree. The money from the tariffs should be used for paying the debt fir example not sending $2k checks to every smuck out there 🙂
Don’t worry. If Trump keeps the tariffs but republicans lose the next election, the democrats will love those tariffs because they will spend it all on welfare programs for all the 3rd world they want to keep importing. Since when the hell have democrats reduced a budget or actually cut spending?
Then I want to hear from all the “tariff experts” here…….
PS: I don’t mind paying for social programs to help the truly needy of “American Citizens of any color race”. I have a serious problem with the last 4 years of 20 million illegals from 100 countries that they want us to pay for.
Europe taxes on American cars used to be 10% while Americas on EU was only 2.5%……And that was for many years. You are trying to make it sound like America has been charging the world more in tariff over history and that is not true.
America had some of the lowest tariffs on avg in the world and especially China always had higher tariffs and even the EU.
But hey you have to have everything about everything fit your narrative that everything Trump does is wrong and everything everyone else does is right.
I just expect that around here now.
And funny how 80% of you were silent over the last 4 years that may take America a generation to recover from
The last four years were spent recovering from Trumps first disaster. Did he build a wall? Did the Republicans support comprehensive immigration reform? NO, the Republicans obstructed and did nothing but complain. I am disgusted with my former party.
Comprehensive immigration reform proposed by the Democrats always contained clauses that would make it impossible to deport anyone so how can you claim it was Republicans who were against it?
Lol! Perhaps you did not know this fact. The US has had 25% tariffs on all imported light trucks since 1964. And we sell more trucks than cars each year.
You are telling us that tariffs work then because the US makes lots of light trucks employing lots of workers. Actually I see some here in my town. It’s a type of status symbol I think because the parking places are not made for them.
Yep. They work to make prices for trucks much higher than they would otherwise be.And they protect inefficient manufacturers, giving them less incentive to become more efficient.
We agree.
Of course. So far the tariffs don’t bother me at all. Very little to no effect on my budget. Never shopped at small businesses and will never do so that doesn’t bother me either. If I have a say on how the tariffs are implemented I will do only one change – remove all tariffs on raw materials and keep them only for the final product. We are the biggest consumer on planet Earth – that’s a lot of power over the others that have tariffs on us but expect us to be fully open for everyone to sell their junk here. And guess what – China restarted the soy purchase from us as they have issues with the soy they are buying from Brazil.
Raw materials are the most strategic thing you want control because you can’t make any of those other things if you don’t have raw materials. The best way to control them is to produce them in your own territory hence tariffs on those would be the most useful as it encourages their local development.
Wrong again, The best solution is to have strong trading relationships with our neighbors and strategic military alliances – where their economies can produce basic materials at a subsidized cost to the US.
Canada has cheap electricity, bauxite and modern Aluminum smelters. Trump not only costs American manufacturers more, he alienates our best allies and neighbors.
Isolating America is pure malice…
Like with China for example? What could possibly go wrong?
Quebec doesn’t want completion Frosty?
They are most strategic if you have them,. When you don’t have them or when you can’t produce them at good price the last thing you need is tariffs on them because everything after that becomes more expensive and kills the competitiveness of your final product too. Unless it is really strategic you don’t want to mess up with it.
For example the rare earths – the whole world market for them is about $20 bln a year and the ones for military applications are only 3% of that or around $600 mln per year. Let’s say US needs half of the world supply and that is around $300mln. It is almost nothing to be worth investing in it but if you don’t get them domestically you rely on the Chinese for your weapons. you don’t want that so no matter what you invest in your own mines. Aluminum – guess what we don’t have the raw material but even if we have we don’t have cheap electricity for the smelters So you don’t put tariffs on aluminum – you get it from Canada and then sell them F-35s. Now they don’t want F-35s and they are thinking of getting junky Gripens instead. I’m 100% for tariffs but with a strategy in mind not the chaotic way Trumpy is applying them left and right and then removing them and then putting them back because he doesn’t like TV commercials.
It definitely is a careful game between getting what you need from wherever you can but if you have in within the country it makes sense to source it there. You can friend-source it but when it comes to countries, friends are fickle. They always have been and always will be. The Gripen is junk but it doesn’t matter to the US if Canada buys them or not. We patrol most of their airspace against incursions and have doing so for decades.
Then if we are spending money guarding the Canadian airspace it is even more important to buy our jet fighters and not the ones from Sweden 🙂
Stop being an idiot. There are many raw materials that we simply cannot produce domestically in the quantities we need. We have no choice but to import these materials from other countries. We should be working to ensure a guaranteed supply from friendly sources such as Canada, because they can supply so much of what we need. They are our ideal partner. Instead, we are working hard to piss off Canada and we are putting tariffs on the very inputs we need from them.
China is importing minimal soy from us and likes the soy from Brazil as it has far more oil content. Love your fantasy spin, but as a farmer, I know better.
You know better my ass – go read here:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3334588/china-halts-soy-imports-brazil-plants-pivots-us-amid-food-safety-probe
The things are changing every day – what you have known before may not be what is happening today 🙂
They are producers whose products are in demand in US,which is essentially a Financialized and service-based economy with Agi-sector etc playing some part.
Elect a clown get a Circus.
Who would have guessed..
Elect someone who is braindead and pretty soon you have a dead country.
How come it was doing good until it became Trump’s economy?
good for who?
Anyone who eats beef or buys their own groceries, anyone who owns a car, anyone who does home repair, anyone buying computer parts… Shall I go on?
Biden’s economy doing good? I suppose you like the inflation then.
The inflation was going down until Trump took office. For someone who reads this blog you sure have trouble reading it. Are charts too complex now?
That’s no way to refer to Mr Modi.