Here are a few Tweets that caught my eye this week. Inquiring minds will take a look. 
Policy Choices
I agree with Elliot. If we go overboard on deportations, the economy will suffer badly.
For starters, the farm economy and construction would instantly collapse.
Mortgage Delinquencies
German Unemployment
What’s Going On in France?
The College Fix
Everything is Fine
I noticed in the lead chart that the only group that truly support current policies are the gen z’s. Goes to show the power they claimed by being social media savvy.
The kids are now driving our political short bus. Very useful idiots indeed.
“Overboard on deportations.” – There aren’t enough busses, planes, and administrators to deport illegals that arrived this year. Biden will announce next week, illegals in the country for 10 years and married to U.S. citizens will be nationalized. At least deport the low hanging fruit.
“If we go overboard on deportations, the economy will suffer badly.”
With the overboard on importations, cities such as San Diego have run out of money to deal with the influx of illegal aliens. Martha’s Vineyard couldn’t even handle 50 or so that Florida shared to them.
“France runs 5%+ fiscal deficit during good times. The ECB should better get ready to print and buy French bonds to avoid full blown debt crisis down the road. Another option is to convince the French that structural reforms and pensions cuts are needed. Good luck with that.”
If printing paper piece to buy bonds with could, even in theory, serve ANY good; Argentina would be a functional country. Ditto the rest of the wastecontinent referred to as Latin America.
“Another option is to convince the French that structural reforms and pensions cuts are needed.”
Cuts of “pensions” may well be needed as well. But, far and away, the French (as well as Non-French..) for whom cuts are needed, are: Bond holders; “asset” holders; privileged-job-, privileged position, and privileged anything, holders. The West failed because it handed all wealth, and power, to rank failures. And noone but rank failures. Heck, by now, to noone but the very rankest of rank failures.
Coming up with yet another childbrained scheme amounting to little more than attempting to squeeze yet another few measly pennies from someone already fleeced into darned near starvation, is; and significantly so; less meaningful than rearranging deckchairs on Titanic ever was.
What destroyed The West and rendered it no better a place to be born than Zimbabwe, specifically IS exactly “the system.” There will be; can be; NO benefit, ONLY continued and accelerating horrors, resulting from avoiding any full blown debt crises when, specifically, debt IS the problem. When that is the case, then, obviously: A debt crises IS the solution. This was true when repeated idiots in charge disregarded Mellon’s advice in the early 30s, and, as a result of a century of nothing-but-bailouts and can kicking since then, is a hundredfold more true today.
A debt crises wiping out “all” debt, along with liquidating ALL; effectively just stolen anyway; so-called “wealth” having been “acquired” (at least 97% being the result of nothing other than pure debasement theft) over what is now several generations; such that “enterprising people” can pick up the few remaining pieces from the “less competent people” which were handed them all in the form of nothing-but debasement theft proceeds, is the only viable solution. Just as it was in 1930. There is no magical “other” way. Wasn’t then, isn’t now, won’t ever be. For the simple reason that there can never be. No matter how badly the loudmouth, illiterate, but well connected debasement theft beneficiary classes, may wish it wasn’t so.
Trump/Biden will debate for 90 min, without a crowd, on one stage, on June 27 on
CNN, with 2 stops for commercials. When one mic is on the other will be off. Time
will be enforced by the moderators.
It will be interesting to see if they attempt to connect to sensible voters who are paying attention and know that it’s substantial spending cuts, not any more gimmick programs for “relief” (translation: attempts to spur consumer spending) thar are needed to right this ship. But I’m skeptical and think the Republican and Democrat false idol big money debtor donors might disappointingly continue with the divisive culture war and xenophobic pandering. The American people need to relearn the values that built up the country of free markets, hard work producing essential goods and services, preserving the value of money and having savings, not being trillions in debt, for when inevitable hard times come.
I find it interesting that the younger you are, the more likely you are to support illegal immigration and, presumably, the willingness to somehow pay for associated costs. I don’t know what this means but…..
the dumbing down is working
With age comes wisdom. Think about how the average child is being raised now. Kids are graduating high school and don’t even know how to balance a checkbook. The average teenager doesn’t have a job. Why should they work when they are given everything (i.e. phone, access to car, insurance, etc.) They are not being taught you get out of life what you put into it. You need to work hard to get ahead.
What it means is that, as the USA becomes more Brown, these are the relatives and friends of the Millions of Illegals already here. Not that hard to understand! They are the criminal underclass taking over in the Great Reset. get it?
The younger people are, the less they vote so they aren’t the ones voting for and that voted for the reps in office. The boomer and gen xer officials are allowing the undocumented in to suppress the price of labor wages that have spiked due to the same boomer and gen xer politicians money printing. The powers that be are duping the voters by putting those baloney border security propositions on the ballot so people can hopefully vent their frustration through their xenophobia, all the while the immigrants are allowed in. And the immigrants hard work and frugal ways might save US or allow US some runway before the debt disaster of our own making really hits.
KRE is backing up above July 2023 high. The stock market is a casino : KRE might jump above Jan 30/31 2024 gap and Dec 2023 Mar 8/9 2023 gap, cont in a TR, or drop and test Oct or May 2023 lows. SPY 1W : we might get a few weekly corrections to stop AAPL, NVDA and MSFT, but the 1M might cont up at least until Aug, unless cancelled.
The stock market is the kind of casino I like. The S&P has returned 10.6%/a on average for the last 100 years. Or 7.44% per year, after inflation.
Many who pay attention to what is going on in the world, will do far better.
We need a good mid 1960s to early 1980s grind to nowhere or a 1929 style crash to teach people about risk since they are ignoring history and basic math fundamentals.
Rising delinquency rates are necessary to tame inflation.
Some people keep spending on things they can’t afford until they can’t.
If there is a hope for housing price normalization, step one is delinquencies getting people who can’t afford the houses out of them.
Unemployment has to go up for home prices to come down. A recession will do it.
It will take a depression to get housing prices back to where the middle class can afford to purchase with interest rates around 5%.
Housing prices are high because there is always a buyer (i.e., cash investor).
Middle class customers don’t have the resources of these investors, so they cannot be part of the “price discovery” process – they have no say in how homes are valued.
Debt bubble is going to explode. The best candidates are France, Japan and Italy.
The great American boom is finally running out of steam, leaving mountains of debt
High borrowing and low personal savings are dashing hopes of an economic soft landing
The American economy is not as strong as we all thought. Growth has slowed to stall speed over the last four months. It looks like a hardish landing after all.
Citigroup has become the first big American bank to warn that the US has already tipped into a recession. Once this process begins, it can snowball very fast into mass business layoffs unless the Federal Reserve moves fast.
https://archive.md/tKfwK#selection-2539.4-2543.89
Let’s have another round of Covid and use that as an excuse to dump another 6 trillion into the economy … and hope it does not trigger hyperinflation!!!
The delinquency rate of mortgages originated in 2021 and 2022 is four times higher
than in 2008 and 2009. The housing market will deflate. Lower prices, higher loan rates and lower o/h are good for the banks. Money might flow from AAPL, MSFT and NVDA to the roach motel regional banks with 5% dividends.
Or there might be yet another banking crisis that feeds on itself when the economy goes in the tank.
AAPL : $3.26T, NVDA : $3.24T. It’s an election year. There are no signs of recession despite the cracks. In Germany holocaust guilt allowed 7 million Muslims in. In France, the UK and Spain colonialism guilt allowed millions Muslims and Africans in. The woke and the green lost, but it’s too late. The Muslims are there to spread Islam. They conquered Europe without firing a shot. In the US new immigrants should learn English, history and civil. Mass deportation isn’t possible. We cannot vomit what we chewed in the last eight years. We didn’t kick out the Irish, the Germans the Italians, the Catholic and the Jews.
The most popular name in the city of Brussels the past decade: Mohammed.
And the Irish, Germans, Italians, Catholics and Jews came in under a screened, controlled process. BTW, which European country contributed the most immigtants to the USA?
Also London. The most common name for newborn boys is Mohammed or some variant of that name. Since over 10 years ago. Muslims breed like rabbits too.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/muhammed-really-is-most-popular-baby-name-in-the-uk-as-is-mohammed-muhammad-9895605.html
“US new immigrants should learn English, history and civil.”
I suspect that they won’t. The Muslim and African immigrants into Europe often form their own “colonies” — ethnic- and race-based neighborhoods that become exclusionary for the citizens of the host (hostage?) nations. These immigrants do not integrate.
I am waiting for the day when Californica makes Spanish a formally recognized language and mandates all signage, advertisements, and such to be in both languages (a la Canada with English and French) and even allows for a Spanish-language only school system, etc.
Well, to be fair, they can probably see the mess we’ve made so why would they want to integrate into the bifurcating debased debt riddled aspects of western systems? They can stick together and use their hard work and frugality to try and build a better life in a place that’s still less corrupt than their homeland.
Ireland first minister is Muslim. His wife is a Palestinian. In Belgium there are one million Muslims, about 7% of the population, but most of them live in Brussel, in Europe center of gravity. The unhinged Joseph Borrell and ex Belgium PM visited Jasa to condemned Israel.
Borrell is more concerned about the war between the Palestinians and Israel than
the first European war since 1945, between Russia and Ukraine. Spain is gone. The
Moors are back. They ruled S. Spain between 711 AD until King Ferdinand V and
Queen Isabella conquered Granada and forced them and the Jews to convert.
Queen Isabela kicked the Jews out to Zeeland, the Netherland and the Ottoman empire. Instead of using the Jewish bankers and the highly skilled Muslim industrial workers they spent their confiscated gold and silver on churches, paintings, torturing and inquisition. France and Spain slowly faded then and now.
Well your first line is completely untrue, you did not even get the country right. I gave up after that. If you are going to pass fiction as fact your contributions are not worth the effort to peruse them
All of those issues will be secondary to the economy and will only determine the victory margin. The driving factor will be the downward direction of the economy. This coming CNN debate will be critical on that score. If Trump has any discipline and wants to rebuild any credibility (fat chance?) he will play mature and focus on emolyment, the economy, and inflation.
The best way he could truly stick the knife into the Ds and their media and twist it would be to be steady and mature, and use Reagan’s famous line, “Are you doing better than you were four years ago?” This is a big test, and one that I doubt he will pass, but you never know.
Trump has a golden opportunity to show the independent voter (raising my hand) that he has learned a thing or two and can be seen as a safe leader. We shall see. My hopes are high but my expectations are low. He should let Biden and the Ds be the yammering, wailing nutcases for a change. It would freak the living shit out of everyone, especially the media.
If he has a sanity attack, he can really run up the score.
4 years ago unemployment was way higher. Most Americans are doing better unless you are comparing getting unemployment, PPP and covid money (doing nothing for something) to trying to work in the real economy now. People like you have very short memories.
Official unemployment was 3.6% in Jan 2020 just before Covid (it’s pointless to look during Covid since it was a forced shutdown). It’s currently 4% right now. So clearly unemployment was NOT way higher 4 years ago, it was actually lower.
Doesn’t matter. The second quarter is what matters. The only clear exception was in 1956, and that was because there was no real trend that year. Unemployment bounced around, and other indicators were strong. This year, the economy is clearly weakening. It has been softening for a year. Unemployment is a laggard, and now it is catching up.
The Ds know it about the economy. They have ditched the “Bidenomics” label and have stopped touting the stock market because they know that Main Street doesn’t spend the S&P 500 but only whats in their wallet, and most voters get very pissed off if the stock market is used as some sort of reason to love Biden.
In the end, this year the Ds have only a Trump prison term to fall back on. Ideally, T would pick Burgum as his running mate in case he is thrown in the clink, so the Rs could win with a qualified candidate. But if T stays out of jail, then someone needs to tell him that he doesn’t need to throw bombs in that dog and pony show 12 days from now, but do the opposite.
Whatever he does will be scorned by the media, so he needs to ignore them, stuff his Archie Bunker act under the recliner for an hour and a half, and be calm, clear, concise, and pointed but rationally so.
It would absolutely, totally confound the living shit out of the Ds and their media. They would call it an act, and they would be right. But no matter. The Ds and the media will not decide the election. No one trusts them. The independents will decide the margin on their own. If T wants a landslide, all he really needs to do is control himself and convince the independents that he isn’t a drooling nutcase.
It is really that simple. Biden’s sole appeal is that he isn’t crazy. Senile, yes, but predictable and stable. T can chop those legs right off and leave them in a bloody pool on the floor if he controls himself. It should not be hard, but it will be. I don’t expect him to pull it off, and I doubt he has anyone near him with the stones to tell him what he needs to do and make it stick.
I don’t think the situation is better. The inflation monster of the 34.8 trillion, that’s 34 thousand billions, or 34 million millions, national debt has raised it’s ugly head but I guess some people need to see the rest of its body to realize the problem and even then they might think the answer is more printing.
The happy experiences of living in the US since 1980, and the hole we keep digging ourselves into, are caused by the same thing: debt. The people of the 1930s and 1940s were terrified of debt (up until recently, the parents still were), and wore clothes till they were rags and tolerated leaky windows rather than borrow for new things. Eventually the lenders will get religion and cut off the loaning, and we’ll be screwed for however many years, and the cycle will repeat over and over …
Very Simple. MOVE.
Quit complaining because You haven’t done anything for over 40 Years.
I moved. Now I don’t live in a country with sky high crime rates, rampant obesity, drug addicts everywhere, veterans of foreign invasions on welfare wearing baseball caps of the country they invaded and lost, no decent public infrastructure, potholes in highways, loud tattooed fat women everywhere, and health insurance with deductibles. Now I live in a first world country with developed infrastructure. Sucks to be you.
Your comment doesn’t make sense. It’s the debtors who are the do nothings because they print money instead of work to pay the interest on their debt. It’s the money printers that need to get their own isolated island and see how they like eating paper when no one makes anything to live on.
Debt offsets this: https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-perfect-storm
President Trump has proposed two options. Flat tax of 17%. Replace income taxes with tariffs over 100%. The happy compromise would be Flat tax of 10% and 60% tariffs. Half of Americans who pay no income tax would start contributing. Plenty of good paying manufacturing jobs would reshore to employ gender studies majors. I like it.
You’re clueless on how manufacturing actually works. And clueless on WHO should pay higher taxes.
Nearly ALL the people who pay little or no taxes have little or No savings and little income.
Protectionist overcharging on tariffs is foolish and only encourages inefficient domestic industries that CANNOT compete against foreign competition.
No savings and little income is a personal choice. I have lived on $100/month. $40 for a room and $60 for homemade granola and bread. But I always had $10K in the bank and it grew and grew and grew. Plenty of trades pay over $100K/year but they are HARD WORK.
EVERYONE should pay taxes. NO free rides. If you make little income then you pay a little taxes.
I think Alejandro Mayorkas and that judge Merchan should both be deported to Mexico.
I don’t think mass deportations could happen if it was the best thing since sliced bread. That said, what might be the consequences of making sure that $0 of fed money goes to support illegals (even those who claim that they are asylees as if the cartels actually have the bandwidth to have made threats on millions and millions of illegals … they are all here (possibly justifiably) for economic purposes, but they know that claiming persecution is the golden key). Some SJW messaging from various blue cities and states would support them for a while … but then things could get bad enough that some who were looking for more of a golden handout would see an all expenses paid trip back to their homeland as a good thing. No forced deportations (except of criminals) … but not letting them be a drain at the federal level.
Cartels run Mexico and half the countries in Central / S. America. There’s TENS of Millions of people that they threaten because they control the government in Mexico and other places. MOSTLY because US citizens buy and use illegal drugs. Stop the addiction and stop the Cartels.