Gain? What Gain?
Donald Trump publicly pressured Texas Governor Greg Abbott and state Republican leaders that they rewrite the state’s congressional boundaries ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Trump explicitly stated that a “very simple redrawing” would allow Republicans to pick up five additional House seats in Texas.
Texas did. California followed. Then Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Utah followed.
The Utah gerrymander violated the state constitution so the courts reversed it. The Split Ticket chart shows a gain to Democrats but I view that as no change.
Virginia attempted a gerrymander as well, but the courts struck that down. The expected result was +4D in Virginia had the courts not ruled the state made a procedural error.
Had the courts allowed Virginia, the gerrymander war would have been +8D by my calculations.
My calculations do have a tossup seat in Texas breaking Democrats’ way. But I have two seats in Florida breaking Republicans’ way that are by no means certain.
High Volatility & Collapsing Buffers
My projection of a potential +8D shift had Virginia stood highlights just how narrow the GOP’s margin of error truly was. The entire offensive relied on a series of fragile assumptions:
- The Texas Fragility: In Texas, Trump’s push for a +5R gain resulted in lines that stretched Republican voters too thin to protect incumbents. In competitive targets like TX-15 and TX-23, this dilution has left the GOP defending highly volatile toss-ups rather than commanding safe margins.
- The Over-Leveraged Florida Gamble: Banking on a strict +2R or +4R gain in Florida assumes a uniform partisan wave. If those seats tilt back due to shifting suburban or regional dynamics, the entire national “gain” for the GOP mathematically evaporates.
- The Unrealized Blue State Ceiling: Trump is insulated by the fact that Democrats did not maximize their theoretical ceiling. If Illinois had overridden its legislative roadblocks, or if California’s Prop 50 had squeezed out another two or three competitive Central Valley seats, the national net would have swung overwhelmingly toward a Democratic advantage.
Reflections on Trump’s Dummymander
Trump failed to anticipate a Democrat response just as he failed to anticipate a response from Iran in the Iran war, and by China and Canada in his trade wars.
Trump is lucky he’s only down 4. California could have been more aggressive, the courts may have allowed Virginia, and Illinois could have joined the battle.
A basic mistake in Texas was assuming Republicans would hold on to the historic Hispanic swing towards Republicans in 2024. That reversed and then some.
A better, less aggressive gerrymander might have gained two seats. Republican leaders in Texas warned about this but Trump failed to listen. He should not have started this at all with plus two the maximum gain.
By demanding Texas redraw its lines, Trump handed blue-state legislatures the perfect political cover to retaliate. Historically, national parties avoid mid-decade gerrymandering precisely because of this cross-border deterrence; if you strike your opponent in a state where you have power, they will strike you twice as hard in a state where they hold the legislative trifecta.
Because Virginia collapsed on a procedural error and Illinois sat it out, the GOP narrowly avoided a catastrophic structural backfire.
Republicans say look ahead. OK what more can they gain. Where? If Hispanics turn in Texas any gains will result in weakening elsewhere.
This election, I see a rising Republican Hispanic star going to the ash heap of History.
Virginia, Illinois, and California offer more potential pickups. Oh, please tell me what happens in Ohio after Democrats win the Governorship. And care to discuss Wisconsin where Democrats have the state supreme court and are 85 percent favorites to win the governor’s race in a few days.
So, yeah, let’s look ahead.
Inline Addendum
Meanwhile …
In the Waning Moments of the Election Campaign, Where Is Trump’s Focus?
Synopsis of Trump’s Final Campaign Message
- Praise of men’s body parts especially Husted’s ass, multiple times.
- Attacking Lisa Murkowski
- Repeating message gasoline prices have only gone up a little bit
- Praising the money refineries are making
- Name Calling
- Lectures on being “Veygan”
- Blatant Lies on everything
- Approval ratings
- Obama and Cheesecake
- Defending the most offensive and stupid political ad in history
Questions of the Day
Q: Is it any wonder that Republican enthusiasm is in the gutter?
A: NoTrump can barely fill a high school gymnasium today.
You can feel it. You can see it. Make America Great Again failed. And it’s obvious to everyone but the brainwashed MAGA cult.
Trump’s Bare Ass Is Now Exposed
Trump’s lies and crassness are no match for rising gasoline prices due to his stupid war and economically-illiterate tariffs.
Trump is desperate for someone to run against. But he no longer has Hillary or Biden. Instead, all Republicans have is Trump’s pathetic record.
With no one to run against but himself, Trump’s bare ass is now exposed to the world, and it’s not a pretty sight.
Beautifully written and honest post!
Hopefully, the majority of voters are not completely brain dead and can see the truth about this imbecile led group and its equally deranged followers.