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Where the Recovery in Jobs Is Complete and Where the Recovery Lags

Leisure and Hospitality falls way short while professional and Business Services leads. There are other winners and losers.
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Nonfarm payrolls chance since pre-Covid-19, chart from BLS

Nonfarm payrolls chance since pre-Covid-19, chart from BLS

The BLS Current Employment chart says "employment" but it's important to understand it's in reference to establishment survey jobs, not employment which is a household survey measurement.

Leisure and hospitality +112,000: Employment increased in leisure and hospitality over the month (+112,000) but is 1.5 million below its February 2020 level. Within the sector, food services and drinking places added 61,000 jobs in March, and accommodation added 25,000 jobs.  The industry has recovered 6.7 million of 8.2 million jobs lost in March and April 2020. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings for all leisure and hospitality workers have risen by 11.8 percent, while earnings for all private sector workers have increased by 5.6 percent. In March, job gains occurred in food services and drinking places (+61,000) and in accommodation (+25,000). Employment continued to trend up in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+26,000).

Professional and Business Services +102,000: Job growth continued in professional and business services over the month (+102,000), and employment has expanded by 723,000 above the February 2020 level. In March, employment rose in services to buildings and dwellings (+22,000), accounting and bookkeeping services (+18,000), management and technical consulting services (+15,000), and computer systems design and related services (+12,000).  

Education and Health Services +53,000: Employment in social assistance increased in March (+25,000) but is 126,000 below its February 2020 level. 

Health Care +8,000: Employment in health care changed little in March (+8,000), following a gain of 66,000 jobs in the prior month. Employment in the industry is 298,000 below its February 2020 level. Within social assistance, employment in individual and family services increased by 18,000 in March and is 27,000 above its February 2020 level.

Retail Trade +49,000: Retail trade added 49,000 jobs in March, with job gains in general merchandise stores (+20,000) and in food and beverage stores (+18,000). Employment in retail trade is 278,000 above its February 2020 level. In March, significant job gains occurred in general merchandise stores (+20,000) and in food and beverage stores (+18,000).

 Wholesale Trade +7,000: Employment in wholesale trade changed little in March (+7,000), compared to an average monthly gain of 13,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in wholesale trade is 104,000 lower than its February 2020 level. 

Manufacturing +38,000: Durable goods added 22,000 jobs in March, led by gains in transportation equipment (+11,000). Nondurable goods added 16,000 jobs over the month, with chemicals adding 7,000 jobs. Employment in nondurable goods is 16,000 above its February 2020 level, though employment in durable goods manufacturing is 144,000 below its February 2020 level.  

Financial Activities +16,000: Employment in financial activities grew by 16,000 in March and has expanded by 41,000 above its February 2020 level. Real estate and rental and leasing added 14,000 jobs in March. Securities, commodity contracts, and investments added 5,000 jobs.  Financial activities added 16,000 jobs in March, and employment is 41,000 above its February 2020 level. In March, job gains were concentrated in real estate and rental and leasing (+14,000) and in securities, commodity contracts, and investments (+5,000). Employment in real estate has expanded above its February 2020 level by 43,000, while employment in rental and leasing services is 55,000 below its February 2020 level.

 Mining and Logging +2,000: Employment in mining changed little in March (+2,000) but has risen by 60,000 since a trough in February 2021.  

 Construction +19,000:  Employment in construction edged up by 19,000 in March and is 4,000 above its February 2020 peak.  

 Manufacturing +38,000: Manufacturing added 38,000 in March, in line with the prior 6-month average; however, employment is 128,000 below the February 2020 level.  

Transportation and Warehousing -1,000: Employment in transportation and warehousing changed little in March (-1,000). Industry employment is 608,000 above its February 2020 level. In March, couriers and messengers added 7,000 jobs.

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Utilities -1,000: Employment in utilities changed little in March and is 10,000 below its February 2020.

Information +16,000:  Employment in information edged up in March (+16,000). Other information services—which includes news syndicates, libraries, archives, internet publishing and broadcasting, and web search portals—added 6,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, employment in information has increased by 161,000, including gains in motion picture and sound recording industries (+93,000); other information services (+32,000); and publishing industries, except internet (+26,000).

Other Services +13,000: Employment in other services continued to trend up in March (+13,000). The industry has regained 1.1 million of 1.4 million jobs lost in March and April 2020.

Government +5,000: Government employment changed little in March (+5,000) and is 710,000 lower than in February 2020.

The loss of government jobs is a plus, not a minus.

Employment vs Jobs

Nonfarm payrolls and employment data from BLS, chart by Mish

Nonfarm payrolls and employment data from BLS, chart by Mish

For discussion of employment vs jobs, the unemployment rate, and monthly wage gains, please see Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 431,000 and the Unemployment Rate Dips to 3.6 Percent in March

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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