Does Biden Withdraw the Troops?
That’s the key question as the Taliban Backs Out of Peace Talks.
International efforts to broker a peace settlement in Afghanistan suffered a setback on Monday after the Taliban backed out of participating in a U.S.-backed summit that was slated to start later this week in Turkey, officials said.
Facing a May 1 deadline to withdraw U.S. troops from the country, the Biden administration has spent weeks laying the groundwork for the conference in the hope it would accelerate the slow-moving peace process that began last year. The conference has now been postponed until a later date.
The administration had hoped the Turkey talks would yield a cease-fire agreement and an interim government that included the Taliban, enabling U.S. and NATO allies to withdraw their troops after 20 years.
In an article posted to its English-language Voice of Jihad website, which often reflects the thinking among the group’s members, the Taliban denounced the U.S. proposal for an interim government and said similar efforts had failed.
“For them, an honorable exit is in the establishment of a joint government comprising of [sic] the Taliban, present quislings and various political parties in Afghanistan,” the article said, according to SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks radical groups online. “Afghans have repeatedly witnessed ridiculous democratic elections in Afghanistan. Would they then trust such a system? To repeat failed experiences is not at all wise.”
Under the terms of the deal that the U.S. and the Taliban signed last year under the Trump administration, the U.S. must withdraw all troops by May 1. In return, the Taliban promised to ensure that terrorist groups never again use Afghanistan as a haven to plot attacks against the U.S. and its allies
What’s Next?
Apparently it’s the same story as has transpired for 20 years.
Senior US military officials are outlining plans to stay in. That does not mean it’s a done deal, but it is the same path that trapped Obama then Trump.
Can’t Leave and Can’t Stay
The Biden administration has indicated repeatedly that removing coalition troops by the May 1 deadline would be difficult, given continued high levels of violence. During a White House press conference last month, Mr. Biden said he “can’t picture” U.S. troops in Afghanistan next year. But the administration yet to formally say it wouldn’t meet the deadline and leave troops there.
Obviously that’s nonsense. In response, I have a simple question.
Why Bother?
Does anyone in their right mind actually believe a Taliban cease-fire or power-sharing arrangement between warring Afghan parties will actually hold?
Vietnam Flashback
Peace talks in Vietnam started in 1964. There were more peace talks in 1968. There were secret talks in 1969. And finally there was a deal in 1973.
The period 1964 to 1972 saw at least five different peace proposals of any significance, along with numerous third-party offers that were either disregarded or rebuffed.
The significant number of peace proposals and their eventual – and some may say inevitable failure – reveals much about the nature of the Vietnam conflict and its chief combatants.
One significant problem was that the United States and North Vietnam approached peace talks with different objectives. For the Americans, the peace process was a way of extricating themselves from Vietnam, while avoiding the humiliation of defeat.
The Vietnam War ended on April 30, 1975 when the Viet Cong captured Saigon.
When the US leaves Afghanistan, ceasefire or not, the same fate awaits Afghanistan.
Meanwhile Biden appears to be sucked into the same trap as Bush, Obama, Trump, LBJ and Nixon.
Declare the War Won and Leave
On December 19, 2012, Foreign Policy wrote “Declare Victory and Get Out”?
In 1966, in the middle of the Vietnam War, the late Senator George Aiken of Vermont famously recommended that the United States simply “declare victory and get out.” With the benefit of hindsight, that seems like pretty good advice. Today, it is more or less what the Obama administration is trying to do in Afghanistan.
Nine years later, here we are.
Obama failed to get out of Afghanistan in 8 years, Trump in 4 years and now it’s Biden’s turn.
He wants a cease-fire no one will honor anyway.
Mish
The question is, what is the truth behind closed doors?
The truth is that it was screwed up from the beginning with the Bush diversion and enlargement of the fiasco to Iraq. By the time attention was paid to Afghanistan, the world was tired of US adventurism and it dragged on because defeat is an ugly word.
The smartest thing the US could have done is powerful surgical intervention immediately after 9/11 without any intention of “rebuilding”. Just destroy the bad ones with as much might as needed and as spectacularly as possible and move on.
Instead we showed the exact pattern of how to defeat th US.
Save face, pure and simple.
‘Biden invites Putin for a summit in a third country’ I just read in HLN, flemish newspaper, stating in advance he fully stands behind Ukraine….WHY THE FUCK would the US stand behind basketcase Ukraine, apart from Hunter’s interests in a local gas company in particular and US’ energy policy in general ?? I hope Russia won t budge whatsoever, Ukraine is NONE of your fckn business !! ….and Putin is the most admirable leader on the planet!
Having the Ukraine in NATO is the neo-cons wet dream.
Biden declaring the Crimea belongs to Ukraine isn’t helping matters either. The Biden’s have long been entangled there so it’s no surprise it only took a month or so after his inauguration to start sabre rattling.
There is no chance Russia backs down on this in the same way there was no chance Kennedy was backing down during the Cuban Missile crisis. Lets all hope saner heads prevail once again.
You build agreements assuming they won’t be honored. That’s why Reagan said, “Trust but verify”
Also one doesn’t make peace with friends but with enemies
Why we’re in Afghanistan: it’s definitely a quagmire now. But its not in anyone’s interest to see a return to the situation pre-2001
Afghanistan emerged as a significant U.S. foreign policy concern in 2001, when the
United States, in response to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, led a military
campaign against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban government that harbored and
supported it. In the intervening 19 years, the United States has suffered over 22,000
military casualties (including around 2,400 fatalities) in Afghanistan and Congress has
appropriated approximately $143 billion for reconstruction and security forces there.In that time, an elected
Afghan government has replaced the Taliban; improvement in most measures of human development is limited;
and future prospects of gains remain mixed.
Why is it not in anyone’s interest to return to pre-2001?
The cost in lives and money over 20 years is staggering. We could have left in 2002 in the same way we left Iraq in 1993. After 1993 what exactly did Sadam do (no more invasions, never challenged or threatened the US again, did not have WMD’s etc). He learned the lesson that the US could invade and conquer at will and destroy his military anytime it wanted to. That’s what we should have done, wreck any military they had and left with the implied threat of return anytime we were displeased.
We’ve been trying to win a hearts/minds war for 20 years the same as we tried in Vietnam. It’s has no more chance of succeeding there.
Fighting Isis and Al Qada was necessary
It was. But they were effectively defeated in Afghanistan by 2003 at the latest and didn’t really exist anywhere else.
Since we were bored and had nothing to do, we decided to invade Iraq because we were already there. That spawned yet more enemies to defeat. It’s self perpetuating.
It would have cost us way less money and lives to have simply left in 2003.
The Taliban themselves are dependent upon the revenue flows from foreign aid and the money spent by the NATO forces so it is in their interest to keep a small NATO force there. To keep them there it is in their best interest not to attack them causing causalities. It is a win-win situation. They get money for their economy. We get to stay there without our troops being shot at and can claim success. Both sides gain time, can claim success and the Afghanistan economy rolls along.
I think a lot of their revenue flows from Heroin.
The money in that is in distribution, not growing. Opium is not exactly in the Taliban prayer book as acceptable commerce. On the other hand corruption, graft and ripping off the occupier is.
You really believe that religion stops the drug economy?
Was the Pope Catholic? Were the mafia made guys Catholic?
GDP Afghanistan 19 billion AND…
…The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimated the gross value of the Afghan opiate economy — including cultivation of poppy, processing into heroin, and trafficking up to Afghan borders — to be between US$4.1 billion and US$6.6 billion in 2017…
About 1/3 of the economy..
Let’s see….could it be because after wasting over 20 years and more than a trillion dollars, that it’s embarrassing to see the Taliban step right back in and do whatever they want as soon as we leave?
What a joke. the puppet government won’t last a month, and all the US collaborators will either move here or get beheaded.
Afghanistan, where empires go to die. Didn’t Bush Jr. take history?
I’m sure he did, but a fair amount of cocaine went with it.
To me we won the war in 2002 when they all went into hiding in Caves. That’s when we should have declared victory (wrecking any military equipment/bases they had) and left like we did in Iraq in 1993.
Yes, the Taliban would have immediately resumed power after leaving caves but the lesson would have been that we could come and do this whenever we wanted to. And once back in their cities it’s unlikely they’d have wanted to be pushed back into caves again anytime soon. Especially since once they were back in cities they would have been very vulnerable to a military strike since they weren’t in hiding.
Reminds me of the Soviets when they withdrew from Afghanistan. They did a simple ceremony, declared victory, and left. USA should do the same. A better way of handling this country is to allow liberal political asylum for the few western thinking intellectuals in that country, including any teenage girls or women (who are less likely to be radicals). I bet the vast majority of Afghans believe in something like the Taliban. Recall the National Geo “sexy young green eyed girl” that was on the cover of the magazine, and when they interviewed her years later, she was a bitter old woman who thought along the lines of the traditional Taliban, and was anti-West. There’s no reforming that place. I’ve traveled as a tourist btw to some of the former Soviet Stans; nice place to visit but would not want to live there.
Beware of the Military/Industrial/(Political) Complex. 17Jan1961, President Eisenhower)
I would prefer to have than to not have it at all.
Not me, but it’s a subject far beyond this platform. I had first hand experience with the M/I/(P) Complex while in Viet Nam in 1968 with the 101st Air Borne Division. The M/I/(P) Insanity has only worsened since, as it will as America collapses into the shadow of her former greatness. Read The Fate of Empires (1976, Sir John Glubb) online PDF. It’s but 24 pages (26 total). Read the Summary on p. 24 if time constrained. America is on the cusp of Very Ugly.
Not me, but it’s a subject far beyond this platform. My first hand experience with the M/I/(P) Complex was in Viet Nam, 1968, 101st Airborne Division. Our M/I/(P) Insanity has only worsened since, as it will until America collapses into a shadow of its former self, as she is presently doing. Read The Fate of Empires (1976, Sir John Glubb) online PDF. Its but 24 easy read pages, 26 pp. total. Read the Summary on p. 24 for time’s sake.
Sure I have read that pamphlet long before. Says civilizations go in 10 generations from hungry warriors to effete pushovers. I don’t think we are there yet. We are of the same generation I see. Vietnam sucked Pres. Johnson had to fake the Gulf of Tonkin Incident to get the Congress to go along. That was an age when people believed media and the government for the most part. A good healthy scepticism would have been productive at the time. We could have avoided it. It seems that some people have a strange wish for the media to go back to those times. Not me. Anyway there are a lot of bad people out there and not being able to defend yourself is an invitation to be taken over as it always has been throughout history.
““The strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must.” as the saying goes. I prefer to be on the left side of the equation.
True. In fact, there’s A LOT of wisdom in Ike’s farewell address. Not only did he warn us about the military-industrial-complex (it was reportedly going to be the military-indistrial-congressional complex but aides prevailed upon him to change the wording) but also warned us that “we must also be alert to the … danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
Fig leaf!
It’s necessary to preserve dignity.
Naked failure is humilating to the world’s greatest military force.
After trump, I’d say our national humiliation is exhausted.