Here are some new University of Michigan sentiment charts to discuss.
Going through more of the latest University of Michigan sentiment data, I put current conditions and expectations on the same chart.
Guess what. Consumers seldom think the future will get any better. However, from June through November of 2024, consumers got their hopes up.
Did people thought Trump would change things for the better and now they have changed their minds?
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Overall Index
University of Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations
Inflation expectations spiked in April of 2025 along with reciprocal tariffs.
They have cooled somewhat from a recent high of 6.6 to 4.8 percent. But the point projection in November of 2024 was 2.6 percent.
Tariffs definitely changed people’s attitudes towards inflation.
Inflation Expectations Don’t Matter
It’s a good thing inflation expectations don’t matter because they are elevated.
I have discussed this many times. Even Fed studies show that people react to actual prices, not expectations of them.
Most of this is intuitively logical anyway, but the Fed does not see it.
For discussion, please see my April 25, 2025 post Inflation Expectations Surge
Inflation expectations are the highest since 1981. Stagflation anyone?
How many people in the USA think Trump is making our nation better who is not a Christo-fascist?
Consumer sediment invariably settles to the bottom.
Oh wait! Never mind…
Yet the stock markets continually climb higher.
I wonder if a lot of this is due to workers contributing automatically each month or year to the S&P 500 index funds for the retirement accounts like 401K and IRA.
Imo a good chunk of it is inflation.
Simple formula -> TINA 2 FOMO.
Maybe even the fanboys sense they have been sold on a truckload of “day one” promises, for which the goalposts constantly recede. I think of hopeful Charlie brown (the voter) going yet again for Lucy’s poised ball. Stock market gains lend a wealth effect, but lots of desired things are still quite elevated.
You can figure that out about their lives, but can they?
Sentiment drops at shaded line, closely corresponding to inflation expectations increasing at shaded line. Would anyone expect any different?
Inflation is the main mechanism of wealth inequality.
This is a little off topic, but I thought the information is at least related to consumer spending. The chart at the link is compares inflation during the 70’s and 80’s to our current trajectory;
https://aheadoftheherd.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-24.png
The full article with the curve is linked here:
Will the Fed cause an inflation mountain by lower rates too soon – Richard Mills – Ahead of the Herd
If the analog holds, we are about to experience severe inflation. It is very likely to happen as the US government probably continues to spend $2 trillion more than it takes in annually.
Taxing to cancel the deficit spend on its face is preposterous; taking two trillion from the private sector would be devastating and that economic devastation would cause significant tax revenue reduction exacerbating the fiscal problem. That is why in addition to the various economic disruptions, the tariff revenues are fiscally counterproductive.
The only way to solve the fiscal problem is to cut spending below revenue and apply the excess toward the debt. Cutting spending less than revenue does not help, it only delays the pace to fiscal destruction, thus the phrase, kick the can down the road.
Negative consumer sentiment hasn’t impacted the stock market. FOMO reigns supreme.
Not yet at least . . .
Margin debt is well below where it was in 2000 or 2007, so there’s still quite a bit of FOMO to go.
Irrational exuberance???
It’ll be a political event that buckles the market this time. Trump saying “The American government actually can’t pay their debts!” over tariffs would probably do the job nicely.
Best laugh of the week.
Thanks!
Thanks, you just constructed the convenient blame script.
it’s got nothing to do with it.
the stock market is the haven of the wealthy
–the wealthiest top 10% of America hold 93% of all stocks (the highest ever)
–the bottom 50% own less than 1% of stocks
the sentiment of which “consumer” is measured in the stock market?
– the stock market is the haven of the wealthy. > Not a Haven for sure, but a place to invest and and try to make money, Absolutely.
– the wealthiest top 10% of America hold 93% of all stocks (the highest ever). And the bottom 50% own less than 1% of stocks. > Who gives a rats A&$ about what the top 10% own in Stocks… I want to know what they hold in “Wealth” as that’s where the value lies. Stocks can disappear in a moments notice. I would prefer A person possessing a substantial net worth or a person of Wealth as they call it.
– the stock market is the haven of the wealthy. > Not a Haven for sure, but a place to invest and and try to make money, Absolutely.
– the wealthiest top 10% of America hold 93% of all stocks (the highest ever). And the bottom 50% own less than 1% of stocks. > Who gives a rats A&$ about what the top 10% own in Stocks… I want to know what they hold in “Wealth” as that’s where the value lies. Stocks can disappear in a moments notice. I would prefer A person possessing a substantial net worth or a person of Wealth.
>> Top 1% of households hold 30.8% of total wealth.
Matches the WSJ survey
The falsity of the American dream of “making it big” is ground into every ones face every day
The battles of the underdogs are hyped to keep the real money safe and their life easy
LBJ “If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pockets. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you”
I think everyone can agree that most people have been waiting for the shoe to drop after the pandemic and subsequent botching of anything resembling a response.
America isn’t healthy and hasn’t been since the early 2010s. A Soviet style collapse or similar big event is definitely on the menu and coming soon. We’ve got just about every warning light from the economy to the history books flashing but because it doesn’t fit the charted projection the fed will ignore it. Not that they can do anything really. Once a country hits this level of corruption the only direction is down. And like sky diving, the hardest part is always the ground.
America hasn’t been healthy since the creation of the CIA.
Or the federal reserve
Both of these are kind of narrow imo. The problem is that the civil war ended with a wet fart and trying to keep the very much still trying to be confederates in line meant overlooking them ruining the system. The very instant it was acceptable to return to a cold civil war, everyone did. Now we see why you don’t let traitor officers and generals go home and hold office. The good faith is gone and the corruption is in. For God’s sake, we look more like Cuba today than Cuba looks like Cuba.
COVID really set the tone, but it’s beep bipartisan negativity since then.
The election of Cheeto Pedo, and the ensuing relentless stupidity, also left a mark.
The way that side of his face is drooping, the stupocolypse may be nearing its end.
Thank the stars that Word Salad is not President.
Oh shut it, ya silly twat.
Are you in love with Word Salad? Is her poster on your bedroom wall?
I admit the menu wasn’t appetizing for me. I think Harris was a DEI hire, and some kinds of drift would have continued unpalatably. But Trump is the other side of that sad, scary equation. Vance seems as worrisomely amorphous as Harris.
He’s a fan of anyone not Trump. More than likely he’d vote for Charles Manson for president over Trump.
Double, triple x10 Amen, Doug.
Then we get Vance, and a passel of Thiel type tech maximalists will pull his strings (since they created and installed him). Move fast and break things then means we are all lab rats in that set of dystopian experiments.
The average nonsupervisory worker has barely made any wage above inflation in over 50 years. Explains credit card balances to a T. How can there be any sentiment better than “guarded” in this situation? Rich getting richer, and you know the rest.
Now we have Goebbles threatening the income and livelihood of anyone that doesn’t bow down at the altar of Charlie Kirk.
My take is, if he didn’t want to be shot, he shouldn’t have been demanding that the Epstein list be released
So that’s where the USA is now.
We know what you wish to happen now.
To see the full unredacted Epstein list? To get an investigation on why Epstein is in a picture holding a check from Donald for a “well used woman” at Mar-A-Lago? To ask why Bill Clinton is complimenting Jeffrey’s “childlike curiosity” while Trump is wishing every day be another beautiful secret?
Go on Doug! Tell us all you don’t care about that. Explain to everyone why Kevin Spacey and Michael Jackson’s names are next to Trump’s.
Well this sorry saga has cost our ambassador to the court of King Don his job, but he was so scandal prone probably should not have been appointed in the first place. Someone must have had Epsteins back for a long time. I’m sure this concerns expat yanks in France too.
“Someone” who had Epstein’s back is Israel. Until they didn’t. Trump may or may not have had sex with one or more minors. The big open “secret” is that Israel has used compromat to get what they want.
I have been accused of many things by people who don’t like me but this is a new one. Is that the new tactic among your crowd now?
Exactly!. Lets see the damn list!. Charlie died because he wanted us to see the list!
Ah! You are using the “Deflection tactic” coupled with “Unity Scolding”. Did you attend a seminar to learn them? They are taught as a way to sanitize the side whose member just committed an odious act. It’s a classic. Look it up.
Not even Democrats claim that so it is only you and you alone.
… and it has triggered the hell out of you.
Deep breaths…
It made me laugh to see you come up with absurdities. Very amusing.
Everyone who knew Kirk said he was a gentle giant. His entire purpose in life was to engage people in conversation.
Whomever sits behind this El Trumpedo facade thinks it’s okay that Kirk died from a 30-06 round to the neck that blew out his carotid artery & jugular vein, leading to a very graphic death, gleefully mocking Charlie as if it was his own fault, wanting to die a martyr.
His last statement, of course, perpetuates this vile condonement of violence. He didn’t personally know Kirk but is okay with a 22-year commiting heinous murder, looking forward to the next one, hoping it will be “Goebbles”. The term Nazi has lost all meaning due to people like this guy flagrantly tossing it about as if there’s real, meaningful equivalency.
Is this person okay with watching the US potentially devolve into a deeper level of social unrest & violence? My suspicion is affirmative.
Really just going to ignore that Epstein list line in the OP like it’s not there huh? I’m starting to have a suspicion two people here are would like everyone to stop mentioning that pesky list.
Robinson was a lone gunman with what’s probably going to turn out to be a male to female transvestite lover. This whole trans phenomena really are starting to be a major problem for the liberal narrative that right-wing nut jobs represent THE home-grown national security threat.
The FBI isn’t going to find any money coming from Epstein clients paying this lone wolf to take out Charlie Kirk. They’re not going to find a manifesto with deep concerns about exposing Trump et al as part of an Epstein pedophile cabal.
The Epstein problem is getting close to having run its course, whether the conspiracy theorists like it or not. The DoJ interviewed Maxwell, and they’re not going to offer her any sort of immunity. And she’s not going to start quacking like a duck, knowing that the powers at be can get to her, if they so choose.
Then all your favorite pedos will be safe, and you can finally relax.
I was quite chill well before your lame comment arrived.
They’re pedo protectors, if not pedos themselves.
This is their single defining characteristic.
I had vaguely heard of him but his audience is the young and I am not. However lots of people over here know all about him now.
The people in the comments above are using classic tactics to promote confusion. I recognize them. They were taught how to use them but they use them in an amateurish manner.
You don’t think we should honor Kirk’s memory by picking up his call to release the full unredacted Epstein files? Seems like something we should all agree on!
I could care less if the unredacted Epstein files are released which means I’m fine with it either way. Release them, don’t release them. I don’t care.
America has enormously more important things to worry about than the Epstein files, but I respect anyone who wants them released to push hard to do so, whether that was Kirk, you or anyone else.
It’s just not something that’s important to me, but in no way does that mean I condone influential men & women molesting underage girls. Epstein was a sick man & the world is a better place without him.
Sage wisdom.