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Within 30 Years, 100 Percent of the US Deficit Will Be Medicare and Social Security

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137 comments on Within 30 Years, 100 Percent of the US Deficit Will Be Medicare and Social Security

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‘If You Really Want To Understand How Much Trouble We’re In, Give Me A Few Minutes Of Your Time’ says Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ).

Ten Key Quotes

  1. If You Really Want To Understand How Much Trouble We’re In, Give Me A Few Minutes Of Your Time.
  2. Your government is just an insurance company with an army
  3. In the next 30 years, 100 percent of the deficit is Medicare and Social Security.
  4. The shortfall in Medicare is about 75% of all of our borrowing.
  5. In ten years, unless we fix Social Security, you are going to double the poverty of senior citizens.
  6. These are the things we are here to fix instead of the trite crap we come behind these microphones and talk about.
  7. Medicare for all is a financing bill. None of those health care bills change what we pay. They just move around who pays.
  8. Until the conversation changes about “what we pay” you can’t save us.
  9. Is this body ready to tell the truth about the math? Because the math will always win.
  10. We’re not telling the truth about the fragility of interest rates. Every dime is covering interest.

What Is Causing the Budget Deficit?

Interest on Debt

It’s a sobering video. Please give it a look.

Regarding point five, “In ten years, unless we fix Social Security, you are going to double the poverty of senior citizens,” expect massive tax increases or far more free money proposals that will drive up inflation rather than reduced payments.

What About Climate Change?

David Schweikert’s rant did not even cover the climate change debate. 

Biden, AOC, Warren and others want to spend tens of trillions of dollars on climate change boondoggles.

Who’s supposed to pay for that? Taxing the wealthy won’t even begin to cover what Democrats have in mind.

Money, Money, Money, Money, Money, Money, Money

John Kerry Says We Need “Money, Money, Money, Money” to Combat 1.5 Degrees of Climate Change.

“The state of the union is coming up. The president’s got to, and you know I think will, because he believes this, we gotta move this. Because that’s the only way we can keep 1.5 degrees alive.”

“So how do we get there? The lesson I’ve learned in last years, and I’ve learned it as secretary and leaned it since reinforced in spades, is money. money, money, money, money, money, money.”

Inflation Madness

For discussion of inflation, please see 

View From Wonderland

I also cover inflation in Alice Debates the Mad Hatter and the Red Queen on Timing the Recession

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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Mike Shedlock

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137 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
oee
oee
3 years ago
This is simply not true. The SS fund will be solvent until 2037. Then it will pay 76% of promised benefits in 2037 Dollars. The SSN will have money coming in from payroll taxes then.
Medicare,
It was fixer per the ACA but the GQP messed up because of The Trump tax cuts.
Also, the US spends 17% of GDP in healthcare, if the US spent 12% of GDP on healthcare like Canada, then medicare would be solid footing, per the economist by the name of Dr. Dean Baker.
Please check your facts.
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Columbo
Columbo
3 years ago
I think they’re going to raise the retirement age for the under 55 group. They will also raise the age for the RMD. That will allow them to lower the amount paid to early retiree’s from age 62. That means you will get less than what you get now for early retirement. Plus, like others have stated here, I think they will raise the SS tax limit. But, I don’t think they will eliminate the SS limit. Just my opinion from articles I have read.
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whirlaway
whirlaway
3 years ago
About 50 years ago, for every dollar the corporations paid in taxes, the people paid 3 dollars.
Now, for every dollar that corporations pay in taxes, the people pay 8 dollars.

Let that sink in.

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whirlaway
whirlaway
3 years ago
Almost 10 percent of the GDP is from privatized health insurance. And in return, hundreds of millions of people get crappy healthcare, and tens of millions get literally no healthcare.
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BDR45
BDR45
3 years ago
This worry about the budget deficit is moot. By the early 2030’s the so called “union” will have split up into several different areas and the Federal government will no longer exist. And good riddance, because all corruption eventually consumes itself and is destroyed. I don’t know what kind of “government” we will have, but we have had our experiment in “democracy”….”republic”, and hopefully have learned our lessons.
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prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
The solutions seem fairly obvious to me, but of course they will never happen:
1) Stop going around the world starting expensive and unnecessary wars
2) Get rid of entitlement programs and replace with needs-based support. Yes, means testing. This would kinda suck for those who work hard and contribute to SS and later don’t qualify for payments, but is there really any alternative?
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
True.
But then the only focus must be to work hard at making sure you qualify for payments.
A tricky balance point.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Why, exactly, am i paying for life support for your needy 96-year-old granny?
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Since2008
Since2008
3 years ago
Somewhere I read that historically, dying was the least expensive part of living. Our Federal Government has now made dying unaffordable.
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Call_Me
Call_Me
3 years ago
Lead image has a couple serious errors – “Defense” wasn’t more than 40% of the federal budget in 1965 just as sure as it wasn’t 13% last year.
Truth in labeling, all you congresspersons — bring back the War Department.
Call_Me_Al
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Cocoa
Cocoa
3 years ago
Well, it’s really game over. They all know it. The Congress is running out the clock, accumulating stock, assets etc. Clock management is math too and if you are in the club, you will get out. If interest overcomes revenues, then it’s Soviet Union 2.0. Minsky Moment

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/minskymoment.asp#:~:text=Minsky%20Moment%20refers%20to%20the,leads%20to%20a%20market%20crash.

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radar
radar
3 years ago
When SS gets in trouble I expect the RMD age to drop significantly.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  radar
First they will tax Roth IRAs.
Like they did with Social Security.
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3icestation
3icestation
3 years ago
How much does the low paid employees working 40 year at Walmart to give you affordable prices able to save, 5 percent each check on a almost poverty level paycheck, ya there decisions lead them to that pay but who would be willing to pay higher prices to give them enough to save for retirement,if they stop paying ss do you think the government would let you keep that much of your pay check,it would just be a new tax, just no benefits,what ever political party starts carving on ss will be committing political suicide because even some of the most successful people who have loved ones who depend on that check they paid in to their whole working life
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billybobjr
billybobjr
3 years ago
Since Social security doesn’t go negative till around 2034 at what time the deficit will be in the 50 trillion area then where did the 50 trillion deficit come from ? Because S&S would not have added a cent to that if they had not swiped the surpluses out to make the deficit look better than it was.
Nobody mentioned it till it started adding to the deficit rather than taking away from it . The video is right but Mish fails miserably to explain
that 50 trillion will have amassed before S&S adds anything to it .
The fed reserve has kept interest way to low to support the deficit spending that has in the end created this mess but at 50 trillion and 4 percent interest that’s 2 trillion a year interest before S&S would even be a contributing factor . So Mish where did the 50 trillion deficits come from ?
What did they spend the borrowed money from S$S on exactly ? Because till then S&S technically has not added to it
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
It’s easy to fix SS.
1. Stop allowing the government to “borrow” incoming SS revenues and invest all SS collected taxes, after paying expenses, in T-bills with the gained interest funneled back into the SS program.
2. Eliminate the SS maximum cap on taxing income (currently $160,200 for 2023). SS tax must be paid on ALL income.
3. If the above two adjustments don’t help enough, then the SS tax percentage must be increased.
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LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Agreed but point 1, I think they do invest in T Bills and it goes back to SS. check on it
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  LPCONGAS99
I believe it is just an IOU. Al Gore in 2000 proposed an SS lockbox.
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Carl_R
Carl_R
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
I’m confused by what you are trying to say here. The government borrows SS revenues by having SS “invest” them in T-bills and bonds. Since SS is now running a deficit, SS currently sells or redeems more T-bills and bonds than they buy. What are you wanting to change?
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
My understanding is that the government takes all incoming SS revenue, issues an IOU for it to SS as an accounting trick and pays back whatever is required for benefits and overhead. SS never has a chance to actually INVEST excess collections and perhaps build a future supplemental income stream in addition to tax revenues.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
The reason they don’t do that is because it means SS also doesn’t suffer when there is an economic downturn (stocks crater, bonds tank, interest rates are suppressed etc).
Investing in TBills doesn’t make sense. It would be the government loaning money to itself with interest. That interest could only come from the printing press since it’s loaning money to itself. So it’s just easier to run the printing press rather than go through all the effort of buying TBills.
Incidentally you didn’t mention the most obvious fix of all. Raising the retirement age from say 62 to 65 with age 70 being full benefits (instead of 67).
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Cocoa
Cocoa
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65

We saw how well that went over in France! Americans are a little more timid however. SS intent was to give you some money for your last 5 years of life. People are taking SS into the 90s! The ponzi model broke down. They are retired longer than they worked sometimes.

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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Cocoa
Of course they are unhappy. But it will be crammed down their throats because it has to be because as you noted, people are living too long.
There is a reason so many older Americans are returning to the work force. They have to.
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
babies born today are expected to live to 80. that’s the answer. it was an insurance deal. not retirement. just there for the old lady who lives too long and keeps her eating tuna fish sandwiches instead of the cat food.
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Billy
Billy
3 years ago
ITR Economics has been predicting a depression around 2030 for the past 15 years. They have a 98% accuracy rate. Medicare and SS are one of the biggest factors along with National debt, Japan’s financial troubles, and the portion of baby boomer’s income taxes about to go away and be replaced with a population that doesn’t want kids or work.
No one cared when Ross Perot brought this up, why would they now?
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Esclaro
Esclaro
3 years ago
I know no one here cares about ACTUAL facts but here is a fact you can cogitate on.
Mexico spends one tenth per capita on healthcare that the US does. Their life expectancy is one year less than ours (76.4 vs 75.24). We spend the most and get the least.
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Carl_R
Carl_R
3 years ago
Reply to  Esclaro
How much of that lack of improvement is related to actual medical care, and how much is related to diet, obesity, and lifestyle? Putting it another way, if we replaced the US healthcare system with the Mexican one, what would happen to our life expectancy?
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Will tequila be cheaper?
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Beans and rice are good for you.
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billybobjr
billybobjr
3 years ago
Reply to  Esclaro
Just look at Covid they threw away money they don’t care . Remdesvir was expensive and ineffective but they had HCQ and
ivermectin but the problem was they were cheap so they kept doctors from prescribing it . It was about money and
they spent trillion plus and got nothing . Gave hospitals bonuses for putting people on respirators and so on . The health
care system is about money and political donations not about health .
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Since2008
Since2008
3 years ago
Reply to  Esclaro
Are you living in Mexico?
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Esclaro
Because Americans spend all that money on healthcare in that last year.
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Bbbbbbb
Bbbbbbb
3 years ago
Why not rescind the Trump tax cuts? They won’t, because it’s not about deficits, it’s about putting the costs of their economic f**kery on the backs of working people and continuing the gravy train for the rich and the capitalist class. There is no “democracy” in the US, just a constant Ponzi scheme run in the interests of the big capitalist monopolies. Neither the Democrats or the Republicans can solve this crisis.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Bbbbbbb
I shop at Walmart and buy the store brand. I do it to save money so I can pay taxes. At the checkout, I see hordes using EBT cards to buy the name brand. Is that the gravy train you speak of?
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Are they name brand steaks and name brand ice cream?
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
I don’t see much steak in those carts. Mostly prepared foods. I guess they can’t afford stoves
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Rbm
Rbm
3 years ago

Ahh remember those tax cuts the bean counters said will lose billions over the next ten years.
Couple of un funded wars.

congress passes a budget then does not hold anyone (pick a department) accountable. Then complains about paying the bills when they come due.
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Call_Me
Call_Me
3 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
*unfunded and undeclared wars
Call_Me_Al
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Rbm
If the US went to war with California they could save a fortune in transportation and logistics costs.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Can’t afford that. CA is the 4th largest economy in the WORLD!
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davidyjack
davidyjack
3 years ago
There are obviously huuge unfunded liabilities in government outlays. There needs to be a series of tax increases and spending cuts.
Here is my ideas:
* Social Security: Put a 2.5% tax on all income above the Social Security wage limit. That should make it solvent for at least another 30 years.
* Health Care: Government needs to to encourage companies (by tax benefits) to bring real cost savings to consumers by spurring innovation. Outsource some of healthcare to Mexico.

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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Screw statistics.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
The quick fix is a lifetime dollar limit on social security and medicare/medicaid.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
…and then it’s off to the Soylent Green factory!
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
You should love this idea; think of it as abortion for the elderly.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
So what was Soylent Orange made from?
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
There is no Soylent Orange.
There was only Soylent Red and Yellow.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Go watch the movie.
Watch for the scoops.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
I’ve seen it many times but not recently. Wiki plot does not mention Orange
This trivia site also states there was only Red and Yellow in addition to Green
Maybe you mistook Red for Orange?
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Having just played the commercial release DVD in my library I see some of the wafers being dispensed in the “scoops” street scene were orange and not red. Don’t recall seeing red or yellow at any time. Perhaps Soylent had problems with manufacturing combining yellow and red and getting orange. Trivia will drive you mad.
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Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
“Indeed, once PPI growth takes a sustained downward turn, the US is often already in a recession or headed into one. We can see this pattern in 1982, 1990, 2000, 2008, and 2019. And now in 2022.”
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
All true.
So what are you going to do about it?
Complain? That’s what many here seem to spend a lot of their time doing.
Yeah. That works. Lol!
Or maybe get elected to Congress, Senate or President. Even if you did, what difference do you think you would make? Little to none.
Or accept how things are and how things work, and then take advantage of that reality to make a better life for yourself. That’s my preferred option.
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Matt3
Matt3
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Have to agree with that. We have all been hearing this for years and nothing changes. I’m reaching the age of Medicare and Social security. I expect to get nothing. I’ll keep working and trying to enjoy life.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
‘Working and trying to enjoy life’ is not good enough for papadave, He expects you to risk whatever you have and invest with him, since he thinks he is the only person here who can take ‘advantage of that reality.’ I daresay most of us are taking advantage, but don’t brag, or over-personalize.
That said, people differ in their beliefs and values, and risk tolerances, and do what is right for them.
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
There is nothing wrong with saying what stocks you like and frankly his oil bet is a good one.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
All ‘bets’, good and bad, have a price, and risks–both things papadave avoids discussing in a meaningful way. IMHO, now is NOT the time to buy oil. Long term, I have done well in energy. As always, it comes down to knowing when to buy and when to sell.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
“As always, it comes down to knowing when to buy and when to sell.”
Lol! You are so full of sh*t!
So why didn’t you buy oil stocks 2 years ago genius? For almost two years you have been criticizing me and saying “now is the not the time to buy oil stocks”.
Meanwhile they went up over 50% each of the last two years. Some of my oil stocks are up 8x.
You are just another one of the folks here who are too scared to invest and have all their money in cash or gold. How can I tell? You never state what you are invested in or why. All you ever do is criticize those of us who are willing to state what they are invested in and why.
I am expecting to get another 20% to 30% at least out of my oil stocks again this year. And for several more years after that. Because even at $80, they generate a ton of free cash flow, and most of it is coming back to shareholders. And I expect oil prices to push higher for the rest of this decade.
Now, how about sharing what you expect to do well this year and how you are investing in it?
I’m guessing you are too scared to do that.
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
disagree. papa dave has given out some great stock picks. this website and zerohedge used to be much more investment focused. i love papa dave’s input and appreciate it. better than just listening to echo chambers.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Matt3
If your reaching the age then you definitely won’t get nothing.
The idea that it’s going to go from where we are now to zero in 10 years or so is nonsense.
The easiest way will be to just run the printing press and pay out the social security money even if they collect nothing tax wise. The fall out will be inflation of course but the program won’t fail outright and thus the cost will be pushed onto everyone via that inflation.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Like the man said, you are virtually guaranteed to receive your Social Security, but there is no guarantee for what it will buy.
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
You misconstrued what I said in a previous post when I said that 2023 will be the year of the Musk. I was not talking about the market. Tesla will do fine as a company but its valuation depends on the market and is unpredictable. It is SpaceX and Starlink that will shine this year. This month or next will see the first orbit of the Starship which will revolutionize space travel even more with the amount of tonnage we can put into orbit and beyond. That will definitely changes things and change things that truly matter.
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dbannist
dbannist
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78

Space junk can and will put a ceiling on what Starlink and SpaceX can do.It’s a major problem with no known solution and getting worse each year. This will absolutely cause major problems going forward and the cascade of debris is not far off, unless a solution is found.

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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  dbannist
Space litter can be picked up. There is work going on the various methods. Starlink satellites are in low-Earth orbit and at that level space debris gets de-orbited quickly. Starlink’s satellites’ orbits mean that they fall and burnup after three years so they have to be replaced continually. Also space is very big and even if the Russians destroy some satellites the resulting debris field will still not be enough to prohibit space operations.
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dbannist
dbannist
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Space litter can not yet be picked up. I know they are working on it, but the cost to do so is astronomical. Decarbonization will be cheaper. Of course, not every piece needs to be picked up.

I expect this won’t be solved and the only place where satellites will go eventually will be into a decaying orbit, like Starlink and will need to be replaced every so often. Gravity will ensure that the lowest portions of satellite orbits remain clear for future satellites. Eventually, all the higher spots will be non-useable due to junk. No one is going to volunteer to bankrupt their company or government to clean it up if there is another solution.

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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  dbannist
Several methods have already been tested. If you get low costs to orbit, and we are getting that, then you can go get the bigger pieces. The smaller ones can be de-orbited using lasers. Gravity does not clear low-orbit junk. It’s the tenuous atmosphere that exists at that level which gradually slows down the object to below orbital speed. There are already international agreements about space debris and companies are required to follow them otherwise they do not get authorization to launch.
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FromBrussels2
FromBrussels2
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
OIL! Buy oil !
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels2
Oil for fry potato! Luxury!
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
100% papa. i like to do both. complain, but mostly laugh at the empire bread and circus as it implodes. but i’m watching out for me and mine by investing world wide and enjoy the game.
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whirlaway
whirlaway
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
This is quite tiring. If you have nothing to say, then don’t. It is now universally known that your solution to everything is: “Buy oil stocks!”. You don’t have to say it again and again and again!
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  whirlaway
There is an easy solution to your problem. Hit the IGNORE button on me. I don’t care.
Meanwhile, keep reading all the morons here who spend their entire lives complaining, whining, bitching, and crying over things they have no control over. What a freaking waste of time. I guess you never get tired of all the whining. Right?
I do. That’s why I hit IGNORE on most of them.
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El_Tedo
El_Tedo
3 years ago
I don’t think these projections have been adjusted down for the accelerated aging and reduced lifespans resulting from covid vaccination. Pushing the jabs is probably the first fiscally conservative measure the government has taken in my lifetime.
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Bam_Man
Bam_Man
3 years ago
Reply to  El_Tedo
It is quite literally “demand destruction”.
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davidyjack
davidyjack
3 years ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
Those not getting jabbed have a higher chance of death given similar ages / health condition.
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El_Tedo
El_Tedo
3 years ago
Reply to  davidyjack
Published Feb. 22, 2022 😂
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  El_Tedo
A new kook! Welcome!
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nightrite
nightrite
3 years ago
The great reset will smooth out all these problems. Plus killing off seniors faster will help. Say, would you like some extra Soylent Green to go with your bugs?
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  nightrite
Everyone will take home a box of crackers from the funeral.
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Cocoa
Cocoa
3 years ago
Reply to  nightrite
Well Covid didn’t work and the vaccines are not killing enough people off fast enough
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Here is what will get done: Nothing. And what that means is that seniors will get progressively poorer and poorer and receive less and less access to healthcare even though they have medicare. I expect doctors and hospitals to increasingly reject medicare patient appointments.
America isn’t exactly known for its care and compassion of the elderly so why would it change now? It’s all about me..me..me in the US. How many comments have you read here alone making fun of Biden or Pelosi for being elderly.
I suspect we’ll be seeing stories in the news over the next decade about elderly abuse, senior being taken advantage of, robbed, etc especially in nursing homes. There is an old expression, “you reap what you sow” and that’s exactly what seniors are gonna get.
In Canada, euthanasia of the elderly (and now mentally ill) is growing, I expect that to come to America soon enough.
As for social security, it’s either cut the payments or let it go insolvent and then everyone gets a cut. Either way, seniors will have to do with less.
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EquitableTrade
EquitableTrade
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
I agree nothing will get done, but not because America hates seniors. Seniors will not let anything happen. The easiest way to lose an election is to promise Social Security reform. Few over the age of 62 are willing to personally sacrifice for the future of the country. They are more concerned with the monthly checks continuing to come in. That is not a dig against the older generations, all generations act that way.
I am in my 30s. I would be willing to pay payroll taxes for the rest of my life without receiving the benefit of Social Security or Medicare if it meant the system would be fixed and my children would not inherit an insolvent nation. Unfortunately, without more willing to make personal sacrifices, nothing will change. I have a hard time blaming the politicians. We get what we vote for.
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Siliconguy
Siliconguy
3 years ago
Reply to  EquitableTrade
For my part I did my public service time with 8 years in the Navy. So you are right in that I’m not interested in further sacrifice for the future of the country.
By the way in case you don’t already know, you get no military pension unless you stay in for 20 years or are disabled from your service time. Military service does count for SS benefits though.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
You do get VA benefits, regardless of time in the service as long as you are honorably discharged?
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  EquitableTrade
TRUE. in a nation of grifters everyone turns into a grifter. you seem like a needle in a haystack. i took the opposite approach. bleed them dry and chalk it up as an anti imperialist military protest. the quicker the empire unwinds the better for us all, domestically and internationally as fellow human primates. bombs away with biden and the D and R votes
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45
Seems like a lot of the guys recently exercising their 2nd amendment rights at the general population are in their 60s and 70s. I would bet that as more hit the end of their rope, more are gonna act out in various ways. Keep an eye on those grouchy old guys… they may have nothing to lose and nowhere to put it.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
The old stereotype of an old man shaking his cane yelling “get off my lawn” has turned into a gun wielding angry at the world mass shooter. As time progresses everything good and bad gets amplified so this tells you where things will be in 10 years. I’ll be reading about it from afar.
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Our entitlements troubles are growing. Our troubles to supply Ukraine indicate that we are not ready for a prolong war, neither with
Russia, #2 most powerful army in the world behind US, or China #3. Definitely not against both.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
However, the hawks are in full-warmonger mode.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
America loves making weapons, and we’re damn good at it.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
It’s one of the few exports we have that can’t be outsourced due to security reasons.
If anything we need to increase those exports.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Captain Ahab
Yup, we going to take Russia down a few pegs.
——-
‘This is not a moment to slow down’: U.S. says Ukraine making new gains
The battlefield advances come as nations pledge more arms for Kyiv ahead of a spring offensive.
01/23/2023 03:06 PM EST
Kyiv’s forces are taking ground around a strategic city in the eastern Luhansk region, a senior U.S. military official said Monday, ahead of what is expected to be a new Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake territory this spring.
While the front lines in the fight remain largely static, as winter weather makes it difficult for tanks and armored vehicles to move quickly, the Pentagon is seeing Ukraine beginning to make progress. The strategic city, Kreminna, is seen as a gateway to Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, two key industrial centers in the Donbas region that Russia seized last summer.
“What we’re seeing is Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, again, largely fluid in that area in terms of back and forth, making some incremental gains near Kreminna,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.
The gains come as the U.S. and Western allies drastically ramp up support for Kyiv ahead of the expected spring counteroffensive. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin alluded to the upcoming operation last week after a meeting of defense ministers at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, noting that now is the time for the West to provide additional arms and training Ukraine needs to smash through Russian lines.
U.S. and allies pressure Germany over tanks for Ukraine
…
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
No one wants a tank battle in the muds of spring.
The best time for tanks is winter when even summer’s boggy areas are frozen solid.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
Puh-leeze! Russia never had the 2nd most powerful army in the world. It was all smoke and mirrors, which has been proven in Ukraine. 3rd rate countries like NK and Iran could kick Russia’s military rear end.
China’s real military strength is an unknown. Certainly better than Russia. But perhaps we will see for real when/if they attack Taiwan.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
…. or when a few hundred thousand drones rise out of the pacific and raise hell with the west coast…
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PreCambrian
PreCambrian
3 years ago
Social Security (retirement) benefits are automatically cut if Social Security taxes do not cover them. Right now we are spending the “reserve” that has been built up. Since no one is willing to raise taxes then perhaps we should have all of our mandatory spending be automatically cut when taxes do not cover them.
My personal opinion is if we went back to the tax structure when George Bush (W) was in office, which was a sufficient level of taxation, then the government should live within its means. It makes people prioritize their spending. The Bush tax cut started a race of unfunded tax cuts which everyone found appealing. No they didn’t pay for themselves.
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LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
3 years ago
Reply to  PreCambrian
we collect more in tax revenues, and I think that is inflation adjusted, than ever before…. Mish could probably confirm that
The problem is SPENDING
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  PreCambrian
“perhaps we should have all of our mandatory spending be automatically cut when taxes do not cover them.”
You’re about $31 trillion too late with that suggestion!
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  PreCambrian
mr. WMD and global war on terror. W the dumber was a spend thrift grifter front man for a crime family……..
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hmk
hmk
3 years ago
Another fix is to allow immigration for law abiding immigrants who will work and pay taxes. Secure the border though to allow appripriate inflow. These are so simple but it is beyond me why the dysfunctional politial system cannot come up with a solution. Every politician is catering to their money masters instead of doing what is right for the country. Evil, corrupt and incompetent best describes our political class.
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Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
3 years ago
Reply to  hmk
FYI, the vast majority of new immigrants do not pay enough in taxes to cover the benefits they receive. That can change in subsequent generations, but happens years down the road.
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EMS9233
EMS9233
3 years ago
Lol, if I trusted the government to run things I could fix healthcare. Yes, trust me I could fix everything.
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hmk
hmk
3 years ago
Single payer funded by payroll and national sales tax will solve the medicare issue. Not popular amongs conservatives but a national discussion with relevant facts are in order. We have the worst health in the industialized world, rank dead last. Also per capita costs are a little less than double the rest of the world. That is a good starting point to look at. Just the savings in admin costs for the 1 million corrupt health insurance companies would reduce cost to begin with. Medicare has about a 5% admin cost vs private insurances which have a 20% or greater cost.
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Webej
Webej
3 years ago
Reply to  hmk
The biggest grifts imaginable are the military, healthcare, and education in America.
It is not just the costs which have accelerated to the moon; any benefit has astronomic price/quality ratios.
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LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
3 years ago
Reply to  hmk
I peg the fraud in Medicare & Medicaid to be 1 Billion annually…….In addition, When they say Medicare for all, all is everyone in the world. I knew of people that received their green card only because they wanted to come here 2 to 3 times per year to get medical treatment they could not get from their country of origin. We can debate whether we should or should not allow that, but Medicare for all is not just talking about Americans whom have been here for a generation or more……..
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  LPCONGAS99
Toot, toot!
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Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  hmk
The US already has a single payer system. It’s called “Medicare/Medicaid/VA”. And it is funded at that world rate you compare full US spending to. That is, about half of full US spending, per capita.
The US single payer system has been in place in its current form for 20 years. Variants for much longer. That’s enough time to judge its success. And, we can see that those who want to expand it are those who judge it most unsuccessful. Interesting.
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Since2008
Since2008
3 years ago
Reply to  hmk
Seems to me we’re living longer and healthier lives than any people in history.
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EMS9233
EMS9233
3 years ago
Additionally, I heard there used to be 15 workers per retired person at the start of social security. I think we are just north of only 2 workers now. Check my facts I’m going on memory.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  EMS9233
Wait until the robots and automation replace 80% of the workforce. They don’t pay taxes. Who will support SS/Medicare/Medicaid then?
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Siliconguy
Siliconguy
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Taxing the robots has already been proposed. Whether to have a unit tax on each robot or a tax proportional to the number of humans replaced is up for debate.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
Will the robot qualify for Medicare if it has 40 quarters of employment?
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EMS9233
EMS9233
3 years ago
Lol. Mish, we currently have 181T in unfunded liabilities mostly, social security, medicare/Medicaid. In 2022 alone these 3 cost almost 2.8T 1/2 of the 4.6T we collected in taxes. This doesn’t include the 1.2T in infrastructure bill (late 2021) or the 1.7T omnibus bill including 850B in defense spending. Now, here’s another article. How does JP Mogan have about 3.7T assets, 2.8T in deposits but over 55T in credit and currency derivative swaps?? In 2000 CCD’s were roughly 88T and I’m sure by 08′ roughly 100T. Currently, CCD’s American Banks is north of 644T. So, what happens when hiccups occur? I would appreciate your input and thank you so much for your articles I really, really look forward to the emails!!!! Keep up the great work!
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LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
3 years ago
1/ Social security was never meant to be a retirement plan. No sympathy for seniors who lived large and saved not a penny counting on social security to get them through.
2/ I guess the large number of elderly deaths from Covid wasn’t enough to put a dent in these figures. Was the vax a mistake afterall? (said tongue in cheek)
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
China seems to be going for that demographic solution as of recently. We’ll see how it goes for them.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
“Social security was never meant to be a retirement plan”
But it is now for many. What do you propose to do about that?
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
i’m on SS and love the small pittance. but lawrencebird is correct. it was actuarially set up to only cover folks who out live the actuary tables. so let’s say 80 years old for kids born today. not sure the exact number. that is when it should kick in as it was set up for. it was just insurance, not a retirement plan. again, i’m 62 and gladly took SS last summer and just got a nice little 9% bump up. i’m happy to cash the pittance and buy myself a few fun things each month with it. but my kids are really paying. we all know this. i hope.
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Call_Me
Call_Me
3 years ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
Hopefully you don’t rub their collective noses in it. Perhaps once per year you might give each of them a trifle of a pittance so they can enjoy something fun too. 🙂
Call_Me_Al
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
The country is run by senior citizen democrats. They want to funnel as much money as possible into their family before they die and couldn’t care less about the future of the country as a whole.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Correction – The country is run by senior citizen democratic POLITICIANS.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
#7 is the key point (#8 is just an expansion on that).
Americans in general are over paying for the services and drugs they get relative to other countries. That’s because big Pharma has captured both parties to ensure this continues. Unless that’s addressed none of the other points will really matter.
People need accept the cycle of life and not spend 90% of their lifetime health care in the final 6 months of life just to extend for a couple extra months.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
That’s the real problem with health care. It costs way too much. Not high insurance costs. Insurance is expensive because health care is expensive. The ACA was supposed to fix this. It didn’t fix anything. Finding a way for some to afford insurance solves nothing. Really what it did was make sure this is never going to be fixed. You either believe the ACA fixed things or you’re in favor of letting grandma die.
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LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Insurance is expensive because of lawyers (resulting in inflated cost of delivering health care) and insurers need for outsized profits. Secondary problem is the gaming of the system by big Pharma (who can still make plenty of money without doing so).
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
A lot of insurance companies are non profits. And I don’t think lawyers are the reason why new chemo drugs cost $15k/mo.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
$15k/month is cheap compared to some.
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Spending all that money to get an extra month or two of life is ridiculous but if you ask doctors they will tell you that when someone is in the terminal phase they will 95% of the time opt to spend all that money to stay alive for just a little bit longer. Most often it has to be the decision of a family member to pull the plug.
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LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Not me……..Told my son, around 80 to 85, will find tune it around then, if I can’t walk it, wheel me into my favorite vineyard in NY, in one arm give me my favorite red wine and morphine for the other arm…. Let me nudge which one I want to press on as the day goes on and hopefully its a sunny day surrounded my close friends and remaining family while I gum the brick oven pizza and its been a hell of a ride. God bless you all!
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  LPCONGAS99
I would say the same but I haven’t been yet in terminal illness in the terminal phase so I don’t know what I would do especially since I would probably be under the influence of various drugs. My parents just hit 100 and they are still fine so maybe you better not kick the bucket at 80 to 85. You might sill have more life in you.
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LPCONGAS99
LPCONGAS99
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
100? Wow. God bless them, You have the DNA!
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  LPCONGAS99
And my Dad just passed his driving test the day after his birthday. Living 50 years in Florida for didn’t hurt at all. I hope I inherited something but I might just revert to the norm.
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Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I saw Rita Moreno and Carol Burnett on TV interviews recently. Both are 90 but look 20 years younger.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Of course they opt to spend the money. Because it’s not theirs.
If they were spending their own money (selling homes and assets) then that’s fine. It’s their money and if that’s how they want to spend it, good for them. But they should not be allowed to spend tax payer money in that way. Once you hit the terminal stage we should only be spending money to ease pain (morphine and such) until you die.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Most folks don’t understand that that last 63 days of Medicare in the hospital helps underwrite the emergency room.
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dbannist
dbannist
3 years ago
People do not ever change unless forced to.I don’t expect any leadership out of Washington. Real leadership would say “hey, there’s a problem ahead, let’s see if we can steer around it”.

Politicians want to get elected and anyone who says “let’s reform SS” will not get elected. That’s baked in. Therefore, people will keep voting themselves free stuff (Republican and Democrat) until it’s insolvent and then and only then will reform happen. That’s going to be an absolute mess, probably worse than Lehman in terms of long term affects on the US economy.

Taxes will absolutely go up. I expect small reforms to happen on the welfare side as a concession, but it won’t be much.Inflation will be the major problem of the next 20 years. It’s gonna keep rearing its ugly head.

My investment advice is to absolutely buy everything you can that’s inflation protected. I personally love Barrick Gold, Petrobas (considered risky, but it’s got a PE of just 2, with massive earnings growth ahead) and Canadian energy stocks. I also own real estate that in income generating. I hope to come out fine in 20 years when I’m ready to retire.

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Avery
Avery
3 years ago
That guy from 31 years ago …big ears…talked funny…mocked by corporate media.
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EMS9233
EMS9233
3 years ago
Reply to  Avery
My friend Ross.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Avery
31 years of sucking sound, and here we are.
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Avery
And he had great charts – on national TV.
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