Worker Burnout at the Wuhan Crematorium
Chinese crematories are operating at 4-5 times the normal rate, minimum. Very few are listed as coronavirus deaths.
Here is a translation from China Press on Worker Burnout at the Wuhan Crematorium.
The site does not allow capturing text so I made this image clip.
Only 8 of 116 Counted as an Official Death
That is just one funeral home.
Billionaire Whistleblower: Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Is Over 50,000
Please consider Billionaire Whistleblower: Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Is Over 50,000
Key Details
- The official coronavirus death toll in China is a little over 800. Whistleblower Guo Wengui is a Chinese billionaire living in exile in the United States disputes the numbers.
- Wengui says crematoriums are leaking the real figure.
- His estimate is 1.5 Million Coronavirus Cases In China, 50,000 Coronavirus Deaths In Wuhan alone
- Wengui says there are 49 crematoriums in Wuhan, and they’ve been working 24/7 for 17 days. Last week, a crematorium worker identified as “Mr. Yun” told a Chinese newspaper he and co-workers have been working 24 hours a day.
Video Interview of Wengui
That is a fascinating video about Wengui’s personal life, his love of freedom in the US, and what he is doing to topple corrupt leaders in China.
It’s not about the coronavirus itself.
Singapore Conference Outbreak
Culture of Lies
A New York Post opinion article says China’s Culture of Lies has Helped Spread the Coronavirus.
The video out of China’s Hubei province is heartbreaking: A young woman stands outside the doors of a hospital while a body bag is unceremoniously dumped in the back of a hospital van. As the vehicle pulls away into the night, bound for a nearby crematorium, she can be heard crying, “Mama, mama.” She takes a few halting steps after the vehicle before breaking down in tears.
“I didn’t have a chance to say goodbye,” she sobs. “They wouldn’t even tell me what killed my mother. But we all know that it was the coronavirus.”
One crematorium manager told a Hong Kong reporter that, in normal times, his 24 ovens were lit five days a week for four hours at a time. Now, he said, they have so many corpses to deal with that all the ovens are going around the clock. This suggests the body count must be in the thousands.
Crematory Math
- 5 Days for 4 Hours = 20 Hours of Operation
- 7 Days for 24 Hours = 168 Hours of Operation
That is 8.4 times the normal rate.
A reasonable assumption range would be that all the crematories in Wuhan are operating at 4-8 times the normal rate.
Unreported Death Math
If we assume 50-100 uncounted deaths per day, per crematory, we arrive at 1,200 to 2,400 unreported Coronavirus deaths per day .
If this has been going on for 2 weeks, the number of unreported deaths would be in the range of 16,800 to 33,600.
Note: Wengui says there are 49 crematoriums in Wuhan. My calculation was based on 24 crematoriums, a number I picked up somewhere else.
If we redo the calc there are 2,450 to 4,900 unreported deaths per day.
That would imply 34,300 to 68,600 unreported deaths just in the Wuhan area over the last 2 weeks.
Economic Impact
In case you missed it, please see Massive Manufacturing Disruptions Due to Coronavirus Include iPhone
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
OMG!!!!!
The Medicine Man died!
Now we’re all helpless against the wrath of the Bat demons unleashed by the evil Xi!!
To the extent Frank Plummer did, or will, contribute anything useful to this outbreak, he published it in peer reviewed journals. Medicine, at least at the public health and pandemic level, is a science. “Cures”, or even just improved responses, come by way of the field itself advancing. Not by way of individual “expert” Shamans with mystical powers and/or knowledge, who magically hold The solution to save the world in their palm.
Trump Fired Entire US Pandemic Team in 2018:
WHENEVER POSSIBLE DONT WEAKEN YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM BY LACK OF SLEEP
I read everywhere that a lot of people in China remotely exposed to the virus sleep only a few hours each night because of lack of manpower in taking care of the diseased and the deaths. Our immune system remain the only reason why no natural pandemic (past, present or future) has been able to eradicate the human species entirely. A severe lack of rest (and the stress added by working overtime) is damaging the immune system as per mainstream research.
I anticipated from the first datas that this new virus was killing old sick people like myself only. That is not the case unfortunately.
Think about this 34 years old doctor who discovered (he was first forced to silence which indicate that reporting a disease and its fatalities is not straightforwardly reliable in China) this new SARS type outbreak.
He got all the best medical assistance (including oxygen and a positive pressure breathing mask) but died anyway as he probably was exhausted.
HK delayed sealing its border. It might pay the ultimate price … 🙁
It is unclear if all crematoriums operate as higher than normal capacity. Maybe only designated one(s) deal with victims of nCov.
Officials finally began to seal the borders on Jan. 23. But it was too late. Speaking to reporters a few days after the the city was put under quarantine, the mayor estimated that 5 million people had already left. Where did they go? https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/feb/9/millions-left-wuhan-china-coronavirus-quarantine/
Aren’t there multiple tests of existing anti-viral, HIV, etc type drugs being performed? It’s quite likely that these will bear fruit and greatly lower the death rate.
There was a news item about numerous false negatives from the corona testing which creates interesting scenarios. Sick people aren’t being identified, quarantined and treated (such as it is) and if there are false positives then healthy people are being sent to deathatoriums. People in Wuhan don’t have a Chinaman’s chance.
🙁
I’m not comparing this to the flu in any way so let’s not go there. See all my other posts about this being a bat CoV mutation.
With that said, this post is about all the deaths happening in China right now. I am assuming that the flu which is going on in the US right now is happening all over the Northern Hemisphere. If the Chinese are getting flu (from influenza virus, not CoV) with the same frequency and same death rates as Americans are, then we should be seeing a lot of deaths in China due to the ordinary flu. Here’s what the numbers would be based on China having 4.36 x the US population.
CDC says as of Feb 1, 180K hospitalizations and 10K deaths in the US. In China that would translate to:
785,455 hospitalizations
43,636 deaths
All I’m saying is that they most likely have a huge flu problem on top of their CoV problems. Our own CDC could only manage to get 20 of 76 cases tested between Wednesday and Friday. What can we expect China to do with tens of thousands to deal with?
In addition to corona there are bird and swine flus circulating and also ordinary, annual flu. Probably anyone showing any flu symptoms gets dumped into a coronavirus holding pen and gets full exposure to corona while still compromised by another flu strain. I assume many Chinese are hiding from being shipped to a deathatorium and thence to crematorium.
“All I’m saying is that they most likely have a huge flu problem on top of their CoV problems.”
And the two aren’t that immediately easy to tell apart. “Viral Pneumonia” can serve as a catchall covering both. Plus most any other death from respiratory complications.
China shut down their economy. Thing like that don’t happen.
China has already told us how bad this is with their actions.
I disagree. China has not told us how bad it IS; they have told us how bad they feared it COULD become. The paper they published computed a CFR of 3.5% and a R0 of 4.08. That is an R0 high enough to infect everyone in the word in 200 days, and would mean 50 million deaths in China. Do you think that, faced with that prospect, any sane person would wait for that to actually take place before they took action? Whether in a dictatorship or in a democracy, a sane leader is going to act immediately. China did some stupid things in the first half of January, but it was clear that things were exploding, just as the study predicted, but in late January, they began to act..
How, and why? Well, the paper went on to say that if they could reduce the time a person was able to spend in public to under 2.3 days, then R0 could be reduced to under 1.0, meaning it would die out on it’s own. So, the answer was clear. You need to quarantine everyone who is infected, and shut the country down so that people who are contageous but who have not yet shown symptoms are also not out in public.
Did the Chinese believe their own study? It’s pretty clear that they did because they did exactly what the study said was needed, based on the conclusions in the study. Will it bring the virus under control? How long will it take? Only time can answer these questions.
You have what I refer to as wishful thinking.
I will explain. Governments are not proactive. Not even China. Governments react. Wuhan blew up and only at that point did they react with what a study said it would take. They did the least possible first and leveled up as needed. Same as now. Beijing just closed.
An R0 of .5 will just create a half life. .9 means it decreases by 10% per generation. At current levels a .5 will take many many months to get rid of. A few super spreaders can completely blow that up. This is not sars. Sars was only contagious when showing symptoms. This virus seems to have the ability to spread before fever so screening is somewhat ineffective.
This virus whether created or natural is the ultimate predator. High R0, long incubation, asymptomatic spreaders(?), aerosol spread, long life on surfaces, and the worst is the long death recovery time.
People have a hard time understanding life is about to change. This is about to change our lives. Good or bad I don’t know. But different. It’s coming.
The only things we know for certain are:
I don’t believe those 2,000 beds you mentioned are “ICU” beds. An report I saw (don’t have the source) indicated they were much more like quarantine facilities for the more highly infected patients. Some of the people being quarantined at home have had their doors nailed or welded shut to prevent them leaving.
There are many problems in Wuhan and China in general:
. Lack of testing kits, meaning only those tested are included in the official numbers.
. Masks and other equipment in short supply and due to the quarantine, factories are shut down.
. Testing at rail and air terminals is based on temperature, even though a disease carrier can show no symptoms for up to 7days.
. The world doesn’t believe or trust the CCP to honestly disclose the severity of the problem and when their officials are confronted about it, the defense is “racism”. This plays well to their nationalistic propaganda.
The quarantine beds were beds set up in a gymnasium, exhibition hall, and stadium. We don’t know how many of those there were, but Mish had pictures of them in another post. There very well may be another 2000 quarantine beds.
The one death outside of China was a Chinese man from Wuhan. There are zero non-Chinese deaths after all this time.
China has shut down information out. We know nothing except what is not going. Their economy.
This crap is coming. Prepare now. Life is going to change.
I wouldn’t be so sure. While I agree that this will have potentially huge economic consequences, whether this plague makes any kind of big impact in my city or your city isn’t at all obvious. The cold season is in winter and tends to fade away rather quickly in the spring.
BTW, the sample size is small, but it’s not that tiny anymore.
China just partially shut down Beijing. Limiting traffic in and out. That is their capital.
I am not trying to fear monger. I am just telling you the fact. This thing is coming to your town. Could be May could be November. It is coming though.
No, you are not telling me a fact.
Respond to this post when the first case is found in your town.
Get prepared.
One potential bright side is that you don’t see the same kind of death rates outside of China as you are seeing in Hubei. However, this could also be that it is still early and Hubei’s hospitals are overwhelmed, whereas ours aren’t…at least not yet.
China has more smokers than the west, and males in China smoke at much higher rates than women.
Also, westerners have better hygiene and sanitary practices.
On the whole, western public has better understanding of microbial disease.
And yet the life expectancy at birth in Wuhan is 81.6.
Which compares pretty favourably to the U.K (males about 79, women about 83).
With great medical care this virus isn’t that bad.
With no medical care it will have a much higher death rate. Maybe 10% or higher.
Don’t get sick in peak time. Catch the end of the first wave.
Is there anything to make of: 1. The report that their is a high security virus research lab near Wuhan. 2. A group of virus researcher’s report that came out saying they studied the Corona virus, and believe it is not natural and contains HIV components. 3. Chinese doctors saying they are successfully treating infected people with HIV drugs?
If you are into conspiracy theories, you can make it into whatever you want. #1 is true. #2 is sort of true, as such a paper was released briefly, but withdrawn almost immediately after it was criticized because the alleged “HIV” components involved some very short chains that most likely were natural. #3 is true, but not surprising at all, as Coronavirus infections have typically responded to HIV drugs. They were used against SARS infections as well.
If you are into conspiracy theories, pick your favorite:
If one of these doesn’t suit you, I’m sure you can think of one that does. We’re in the disinformation Age, and each person can have their own personal truth now.
Your “conspiracy theory” choices are set up to look like such.
How about the lab doing perfectly innocent but potentially valuable research, perhaps trying to find antidotes to hypothetical pandemic (like this one), and a minor slip up allowed the virus to escape?
Either way, we do not know what ‘animal’ passed the virus to humans but everyone thinks it was a bat.
You can call them something other than conspiracy theories if you prefer. The reason they “look” like conspiracy theories the way I presented them is because I presented ones that were mutually inconsistent as options, rather than sticking to a single one and arguing the truth of it, which is the way they are usually presented. I know that I’ve seen most of the ones I posted in comments on this site, and I’m sure you have, too. I haven’t seen #4 yet, but I expect to.
My real question is, at this point, what does it matter? It appears to have come from a bat, by way of a pangolin, but regardless of it’s origin, we have to deal with it the same way. If you like though, we can add to my list a #5 that China found the virus in a pangolin or a bat, and was studying it while trying to study how to contain it, and it accidentally escaped. That’s actually very plausible, but still the important fact is that it is hear, it is real, and we need to figure out how to survive it.
“My real question is, at this point, what does it matter?”
If it were a bio-weapon there might already exist study of its capability or projections of its evolution.
If it were confirmed as from a lab then we might have a conflict over who released it and if on purpose, and if so why and to what ends. Other countries might be preparing a story for propaganda purposes, and then you might be forced to investigate just to try to disprove that.
If we don’t investigate its origin, we will not know if it is product of human action, and then no safeguards will be placed to prevent the same occuring in future.
You know, we might be talking a great number of casualties, right through to world geopolitical reorganisation at a scale and pace never seen before.
So, there is nothing wrong with questioning the origin of the virus, I would find it disturbing if people didn’t try to find that out, if people didn’t stop to figure it out as fully as possible.
The fact that governments run these bio labs automatically puts them into range, as well as the fact that authorities are known to conspire in various ways.
I expect they will investigate it, in good time, but now is not the time. I’d much rather have scientists focus on things like vaccines, faster more accurate detection, and better treatments. In the end, I will be very surprised if they don’t find that it was naturally evolved, and I will be even more surprised if those who have already decided it was man made change their mind.
No reason to procrastinate, there are enough scientists in the world and they won’t detract from the rest.
The interference is more likely to be from diverting too much public attention to the topic, but anyway it is probably going to stay a background discussion. The most likely to use or over promote the topic are political class “Why is response inadequate? ” Answer “It was their fault” or “You are racist to suggest” It’s about the level we are at with politics.
Agree, but China would be even more likely cover up something caused by its own lab than something that happened naturally. And it’s difficult to find the answer when truth is covered up.
A cynic would not transform a theory into a truth by calling it disinformation, but the official line never was personal except in the aggregate, and so I suppose your view is a form of yearning from the realm of the dissolute?
My main concern is that if the virus was engineered, it could be a lot more deadly and difficult to contain. I don’t think anyone benefits from an intentional release, though it certainly could have been released accidentally.
” if the virus was engineered, it could be a lot more deadly and difficult to contain.”
Why? Reverse engineering human made products, are a heck of a lot easier than ditto natural ones.
There is no reason to believe that we know enough about virus genes to know what effect a change to them might have. If I thought it was man-made, I would expect it to be unstable in the real world.
It’s possible that it’s man made, but I’ve heard a virologist say that nature is far better at creating deadly viruses than man.
Sure, the Chinese Communist government was responsible for killing 30 million of their own people during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. But they wouldn’t lie about this. No chance.
That was over 50 years ago
Yes…and they have a great reputation for honesty on economic numbers, protecting the lives of political dissidents, following international agreements that they signed and etc!!!
Yes, you’re right.
Today’s Chinese Communist leaders are honest and enlightened.
How could anyone forget something they never learned of ?
Their history books probably don’t match our archives. Ask a 20 YO Chinese person about Tianamin Square and more than likely, you will get the CPP version of the event.
Mish, wtf is going on?
Well there is this friendly reminder from the WHO
“There’ve been some concerning instances of onward 2019nCoV spread from people with no travel history to 🇨🇳. The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg.”
That it might be coming to a theatre near you sometime soon.
Anyone still comparing this to a normal flu is seriously nuts.
If 80 yr old patient zero was source of the whole diamond princess infection, in a max of two weeks (till quarantine) by primary or possibly some secondary infection 70 of those on board caught it (at least, because they have only tested a fraction of those on board).
This is very contagious, even if the environment was slightly closer than normal (a ship).
“The elderly Hong Kong passenger boarded the vessel in Yokohama on January 20 after flying out to Japan.
On January 22 he took part in a bus trip with other passengers in Kagoshima, Japan, before the ship sailed to Hong Kong where he left on January 25.
In his five days on the cruise liner he did not report any problems to the ship’s on-board medics, but six days after leaving he went to hospital in Hong Kong.
On February 1 he tested positive for coronavirus, prompting Japanese authorities to deny entry to the ship and screen more than 3,700 people for the virus when the vessel returned to Yokohama on February 3.
Of the 3,711 people screened on the ship, 273 were selected for further tests. They had disembarked in Hong Kong or been in contact with the 80-year-old.” Daily Mail
That is like R0 of 8 at least (he infects 8 and they infect eight) if it was two generations of infection (giving one week till becoming infectious to others) or R0 of 70 + if all from him .
Maybe a couple of people picked it up in Hong Kong is another possibility, but then they gave it to 70 people at least in a little over a week – still very high R0.
Sort of explains why we keep hearing ” oh but a ship is close confines ” , it is an excuse from somewhere – a person in any city moving around in public in normal day to day will meet/cross in terms of infectability at least as many people as on a cruise.
(Note, there is estimation involved in the above, but I think it is all close to the mark short of say a whole busload picking it up from a market in Hong Kong etc. )
If there have really been 1.5m cases as this fellow claims – and 50,000 deaths – the CFR is still only around 3.5%. What makes it remarkable is the R0. If, indeed, it has only been circulating since December.
Something that has been bothering me is why Chinese doctors were writing “viral pneumonia” on death certificates. Could there be another reason than dishonesty. I got curious….
The paper below – before the current outbreak – studies pneumonia in China. We see that at the worst estimate, China experienced 221 cases of pneumonia per 100,000 people (as compared to a worst case US incidence of about 29/100,000) – 8 to 10 times at the worst estimate.
Whether it’s air pollution, smoking, diet or genetic susceptibility, pneumonia is clearly a much larger issue in China than in the US.
This suggests two things that might explain the current situation:
Now the obvious comment is that most of the cases in the paper below are bacterial, not viral. But how many patients actually get tested? The early definition for NCOV included “being treated for 3 days with antibiotics with no improvement”. That suggests that doctors give antibiotics rather than do tests, maybe? Maybe as patients have to pay for medical treatment fewer tests get done?
Actually there is no easy, routine way to tell viral from bacterial pneumonia across the board.
You can rule in a pathogen by testing positive for it. But there are dozens of common viruses and bacteria both that can cause pneumonia.
Even in the USA the cost of routinely multiplex testing for a bunch of common pathogens is considered prohibitive.
There is literally no way China could do this routinely, I doubt they even have the resources to test every pneumonia patient for just coronavirus.
It’s obviously out, chance of total containment appears very low.
For the cruise ship case, are we saying the 80 year old was coughing for very long? Somehow it doesn’t add up, again. It transfers easily.
Just one undetected carrier on a mass transport system in a developed nation during rush hour……..chaos will ensue,
Here’s one you can glean some info from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKcMVXTucpw
Personally, I fear the government’s response to the coronavirus far more than the virus itself.
However, I do have family and my daughter attends a crowded university with over 60,000 students, many from around the world.