Employment, a household survey measure, is more volatile than jobs, an establishment survey measure. The divergence is large even though the trends look alike.
Jobs vs. Employment Level
The trends are in the same direction, but the volatility of the employment level is apparent.
Jobs vs. Employment – Percent Change from Year Ago
On a percentage basis, jobs are up 1.7% from a year ago. The employment level is up only 1.1% from a year ago.
Jobs vs. Employment – Change from Year Ago in Thousands / 12
During recessions, jobs and employment track very closely. Otherwise the volatility of employment is clearly visible.
Year over year employment is up an average of 136,000 per month. Jobs are up an average of 211,000 a month. That’s quite a difference.
The numbers tend to converge, but which way?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Structural unemployment goes higher with every employment boom and youth replace the old. Companies cant afford the healthcare of an aging population as premiums go higher. This has also eaten into wage increases. If companies were smart they would include the employer portion of healthcare as wages to employee.
Also if you work for Uber or lyft are you considered employed? Remember the wear and tear cars take and that at 100,000 miles most cars more to repair than to trade in for a new model
More people have dropped out of the labor force(1,884,000) than have become employed in the last year(1,638,000). What is going on?
Actually no, employment population ratio for age 25to55 aka prime working age is just under its 2000 high and now exceeds the 2007 high. This information as well as total PiTi payment when talking about home prices are conveniently ommited. Anyone have the answer to these two stats along with average salaries instead of this household income nonsense
If people are dropping out of labor force how are they supporting themselves?? Anyone??? Anyone care to answer
“Informal”/underground economy, perpetual “studenthood” (funded by student loans), disability and disability fraud probably accounts for a lot of it.