Yellen Said “No Bailout” But It’s a Huge Bailout of the Banking System

Second Financial Rescue in 15 Years

Hello bailout fans, we have the Second Rescue of the Banking System in 15 Years

That is a free link to a WSJ article.

The Treasury and Federal Reserve stepped in late Sunday to contain the financial damage from Friday’s closure of Silicon Valley Bank, guaranteeing even uninsured deposits and offering loans to other banks so they don’t have to take losses on their fixed-income assets. 

This is a de facto bailout of the banking system, even as regulators and Biden officials have been telling us that the economy is great and there was nothing to worry about. The unpleasant truth—which Washington will never admit—is that SVB’s failure is the bill coming due for years of monetary and regulatory mistakes.

Wall Street and Silicon Valley were in full panic over the weekend demanding that the Treasury and Fed intervene to save the day. It’s revealing to see who can keep a cool head in a crisis—and it wasn’t billionaire hedge-fund operator Bill Ackman or venture investor David Sacks, both frantic panic spreaders.

In a world of near-zero interest rates, SVB put the money in long duration fixed-income assets in search of a higher return. Regulators after the 2008 crisis had deemed these Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities nearly risk-free for the purpose of measuring bank capital.

The San Francisco Fed regulates SVB and somehow missed this rising vulnerability. The Fed and Treasury will try to blame the bankers, but they are as much if not more culpable. The idea of elevating San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly to the Board of Governors seems preposterous after SVB.

The feds said they will guarantee even uninsured deposits at SVB as well as at Signature Bank in New York. Typically in a bank failure those depositors would get their money back with a 15% to 20% haircut. This would no doubt be a hardship for many customers, but the $250,000 limit was known.

But there is political risk from a bailout too. If the Administration acts to guarantee deposits without Congressional approval, it will face legitimate legal questions. 

Frantic Panic Spreaders

It won’t matter but I am pleased the Journal blasted Bill Ackman and venture investor David Sacks,  as “frantic panic spreaders“.

There’s more in the article about how Rohit Chopra, an Elizabeth Warren acolyte on the FDIC board, is hostile to bank mergers on ideological grounds, perhaps preventing a merger.

The Journal speculates how Biden might illegally act to guarantee all deposits or pressure House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

No More Financial Crises In Our Lifetimes

Here’s a flashback hoot of the day. On June 27, 2017 then Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she expects “No New Financial Crisis in Our Lifetimes”

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” Yellen said at a question-and-answer event in London.

“You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be,” she said.

Once again, the Fed kept interest rates too low, too long, encouraged speculation, then bailed out the banks.

Spare me the sap about this was a depositor bailout not a bank bailout. 

When you value assets at par so that banks don’t have losses, what the hell is it.

Conclusion

You can’t run the most reckless monetary and fiscal experiment in history without the bill eventually coming due. The first invoice arrived as inflation. The second has come as a financial panic, with economic damage that may not end with Silicon Valley Bank.

That’s from the Journal. I couldn’t have said it better. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Portlander2
Portlander2
1 year ago
Why were long duration securities (like MBS) allowed to count for bank liquidity “allowed for sale” requirements in the first place? That seems insane, particularly in a rising interest rate environment. Then, to compound this error by the Fed buying them at par. More moral hazard! What joke. They should be bought at market value until the equity and bond holders are wiped out, then buy at par.
Pelosi is quoted as saying she hopes someone will buy SVB. Merging failed banks into larger TBTF banks is a band-aid that doesn’t get to the root problem, which is shoddy oversight. Now, other problem banks are now floating to the surface like so many bad apples. They will need to be given similar bailouts.
Bailouts shouldn’t be “free” or even cheap; the quid pro quo should be a stricter regulatory paradigm, even if it costs the banking industry dearly. Will we see Dodd-Frank 2.0? Extend stress test and stricter capital requirements on medium sized banks?
This month is the 90th anniversary of FDR’s first fireside chat (1933), which dealt with the banking crisis of that time, in which he said: “We had a bad banking situation. Some of our bankers had shown themselves either incompetent or dishonest in their handling of the people’s funds. They had used the money entrusted to them in speculations and unwise loans.”
Ninety years later, we must ask: Have we learned anything? Why do these problems continue to plague this country?
LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
1 year ago
This was a bail out of depositors, first and foremost. Uninsured no longer means what we all think it does.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
It’s a bailout of idiotically high cost structures only made possible by ever greater floods of “free” money handed to the illiterate connected dilettantes who now make up 99% of America’s “ownership” classes.
Of course the money wasn’t free. No matter how many illiterate “experts” on Wall Street are too stupid to realize that tooth fairies don’t really exist: Tooth fairies still don’t exist. Someone else has to be made more-than-one-for-one poorer, for every penny these yahoos are made richer.
TheCaptain
TheCaptain
1 year ago
There is no way that Brandon was going to let the banking system collapse based on SVB only being #16-19 biggest bank in the country with only a few months left until a presidential election. That would hand a landslide victory to Trump even though his “economics” were the same liberal loose money BS as brandon and the leftists. And in fact, there is no alternative except to inflate more because trump didn’t create the Global Debt Ponzi and neither did Brandon. They were both handed a stinking pot of boiling crap. If the Global Debt Ponzi (GDP) collapses on the Dems watch it will be the end of the democratic political party as we know it. They will have to disband, infight, change names and ideals in order to get another future vote. Why? Simply because too many idiots actually think that the president is responsible for the economy, for creating jobs, for safe banks in a fake money system. Too many do not understand the obvious implications of an exponential debt chart which is now in the straight up portion of the curve. They want an easy throat to choke and with all the lies about russian collusion, Brandon jrs laptop being russian disinformation, blowing J6 waaaay out of proportion (i.e. calling a tailgate party gone wild “a bloody insurrection”), taking away people’s jobs and limiting their travel and freedoms over the purposeful release of a manmade bioweapon, calling the death clot shot safe and effective, etc.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  TheCaptain
“Brandon” notwithstanding, you do realize it was Trump’s exempting regionals from Dodd-Frank that allowed SVB to escape unnoticed, right?
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
He will allow himself to understand no such thing.
Bam_Man
Bam_Man
1 year ago
I am waiting for the FDIC website to be updated to reflect the new policy of “Each depositor now insured to infinity.”
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
From 250K to 1M to protect the regional banks. The average account in the flyover is 4K. The next banking failure will be taken over
expand gov power. US gov will collect div from any entity they will nationalize to finance themselves.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Bam_Man
Dammit, no dead bodies at the accident scene, and I took the time to slow down to see it!
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
If the gov break the primary banks who will buy US treasuries that finance our gov $33T/$35T debt and who will compete with China’s mega banks, KEY, ZION, USB…
This weekend Ukraine chances are even dimmer. Zelensky might agree to Shi peace plan, because Ukraine was doomed even before SVB bank collapse.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
President Zelensky will continue to battle Russia until he has sufficient personal assets securely overseas.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Putin keep Zelensky alive to sign a peace agreement.
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Freightwaves CEO on CNBC saying he had payroll money at SVB. Yikes!
Carl_R
Carl_R
1 year ago
I agree with Mish 100%. This is a crock. Let the depositors take a 20-40% haircut, and they will be more careful in the future, and banks will be more careful as well.
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Carl_R
The only idea I like so far came from Doug78 I think, it is to let depositors buy insurance for larger amount of deposits. I can buy $100k or $1m of life insurance, auto insurance, home insurance, etc. Why are we limiting bank deposit insurance? If anything FDIC limits should rise with inflation so they should be at $400,000 by now but they’ve been at 250k since 2008 with the money supply exploding. It doesn’t make any sense.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2
I am thinking of setting up an insurance company called Doug’s Deposit Insurance. With $10 million insured you get a free iPhone. With $100 million you can have lunch with an Elon Musk look-a-like. With a $ 1 billion you get lunch with the real Elon Musk.
Carl_R
Carl_R
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2
I agree with that. Let big depositors choose:
1. Buy insurance on over $250k
2. Let them spread the money between a number of banks, no more than $250 in any one bank
3. Let them take a haircut if they go over $250k with no insurance, and it fails
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2
“Why are we limiting bank deposit insurance?”
We’re not. Anyone can sell insurance against bank failures. It’s just really hard for Doug to compete with someone who gets their required funds by simply stealing it from third parties. Since they can offer very, very low premiums. As in zero.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Carl_R
No one had any way to know SVB was underwater, thank Trump for exempting regionals from Dodd-Frank.
It amazes me to see how knee-jerk eager so many are to impose blame on depositors here.
Carl_R
Carl_R
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
It’s easy. It is a well known fact that deposit insurance is limited to $250k. Banks can fail at any time. If you have more than $250k, you can open accounts at multiple banks and/or brokerages to stay under the limits. These depositors chose not to, knowing that the money wasn’t insured, yet they now have no insurance, and they want to be insured anyway. Their blame is not because they didn’t know SVB was bankrupt; it is for putting all their eggs in one basket, knowing that it wasn’t insured. There is no way to get around that, sorry, they are to blame.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Carl_R
Carl, many of the business accounts had no choice but to keep the money there, it was a stipulation for their loans.
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
TreasuryDirect.gov is down for ‘maintenance’ in the middle of the day. Nothing to see here.
“Heavy volume is slowing our response time to calls on the phone and cases sent by mail. You can call us from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET, Monday through Friday. Please expect long wait times if you need an agent.”
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2
It will get worse (for small / medium banks).
I made this point last week. When the debt ceiling theatre settled, the Treasury Department will need to restock its cash position.
Cash on hand March 9th, 2023 … $247 billion
Cash on hand March 9th, 2022 … $609 billion
$$s will leave savings account (paying < 0.5%) when Yellen floods the market with (4.5% yield) T-bills to restock. Small / medium banks will need to sell “something” to meet demand deposit withdrawal.
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
My last T-bill went through after all, 30 day @ $100k. With the debt ceiling looming in June/July, most of my T-bills expire in May. Who knows where to run after May?
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2
I favor the US Virgin Islands.
If you feel you need to run further the Marianas are nice.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
They’d better never make me emperor. If they did, there’s a fairly long list of shysters who’d be offered the choice of execution or retraining as septic tank cleaners.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
You would make your horse a senator.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
I would make you the emperor if I could.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
I have modest requirements before I accept the job.

1. Absolute power.

2. Build me an Antonov An-225 Mirya, but with windows and nice chairs. In the meantime, I’ll slum it in an An-124. But they’d better get working.

Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Absolute power – no problem.
Antonov An-225, you have to enter a time machine.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
I know, which is why I’d require them to build another one, just for me. And it better not crash, or else.
Ishbi
Ishbi
1 year ago
Mish, any thoughts about what Powell’s gonna do? Raise rates 25, 50.Or pause, then pivot to lower interest? Thanks for sharing insight.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Ishbi
The Fed does not pivot.
The Fed pirouettes.
Pay attention.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
I would like to see the Fed do a cabriole.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
Marvelous idea.
I’d like to see JPow do a Grand écart.
Yellen too, and maybe Biden/Harris?
It’s cheap and a lot of fun if you’re in shape for it.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Biden does splits as he rolls down stairs.
Avery
Avery
1 year ago
Bank run, Chicago Style ! –
A security guard suffered a graze wound while exchanging gunfire with a suspected bank robber in the Loop Thursday afternoon, police said. The guard confronted the suspect as he left the Fifth Third Bank at 1 S. Wacker Drive about 3 p.m., Chicago police and the FBI said. The suspect drew a handgun and fired, and the guard returned fire.
So that’s about 2 blocks north of the Willis/Sears Tower, near the train stations.
JackWebb
JackWebb
1 year ago
Reply to  Avery
What a moron. When will those people realize that if you’re going to be a thief, a pen and a computer beat a gun?
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
My Dear Janet:
Belief, much akin to hope, is not a viable strategy.
It’s not even usable tactic.
BR, LH
In the long run MMT won’t work and neither will using the OPM.
PreCambrian
PreCambrian
1 year ago
More in depth on similar points that Mish made. link to bloomberg.com
As the editorial says, 1) Why not give everyone an option for a checking account directly at the Fed?; 2) Will this removal of interest rate/duration risk at the banks become permanent?
Most likely it will until the Federal Reserve goes under.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  PreCambrian
“1) Why not give everyone an option for a checking account directly at the Fed?”
Because the whole effin point of The Fed is to transfer wealth from people who have to earn it, to people who are just handed it. That’s why central banking was invented: To keep the leeching classes from having to be competent enough to earn anything, in order for them to retain the privilege of owning everything.
“2) Will this removal of interest rate/duration risk at the banks become permanent?”
It was never a risk to anyone connected to begin with. Again, that’s the reason The Fed exists. That’s the only purpose The Fed serves: Make more competent and intelligent beings pay, so that connected dilettante idiots can preen around babbling about being “risk takers,” “capitalists” and “investors” without facing any risk themselves.
Billy
Billy
1 year ago
“Never let a good crisis go to waste” -Saul Alinsky
What a great reason to grow our government with more rules and regulations. After all, it’s for the safety of the common man. Anything over $250,000 really should be bailed out by the taxpayers.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Billy
Right, like that stupid regulation that kept banks from speculating with your deposit money, or created garbage assets off liar loans and reselling it to you as “AAA” rated, damned regulations.
Billy
Billy
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
I didn’t say all regulations are bad. I didn’t say they were all good either.
I just think think that the investor should pay for the insurance on their investments. Not the taxpayers.
I also don’t blindly trust governments to protect us.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Billy
Same page then, but sick of the “regulations cost us” mantra that gets spewed by politicians doing their corporate sponsors bidding.
Both the sub-prime and Opioid crisis’s are great examples.
.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
“You can’t run the most reckless monetary and fiscal experiment in history without the bill eventually coming due. The first invoice arrived as inflation….”
This bugs me, yes, the Fed kept rates too low, too long, but this statement negates the reason, as to say the Fed just cut rates for no reason.
Solely looking at the Fed ignores the cause, the reason the Fed kept rates low.
Don’t get me wrong, I view the Fed as a group of bankers regulating to benefit themselves first and foremost, but they didn’t just invoke 15 years of QE and low rates for no reason, and that reason has a lot to do with exploding household/government debt as a result of regulatory, fiscal and tax policy.
Let’s look at the whole picture, not just the Fed.
.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
Damn the prices of food and housing.
We must keep interest rates low to enable Government spending for the children.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Food prices have become monopolized by a small handful of corporates.
This one’s a cattle rancher who was taken out by the “big 4” meat producers, FF the emotional stuff and listen to his explanation of how they keep consumer prices high while manipulating cattle prices lower to force small ranchers into selling. – link to youtu.be
This, the result of decades of M&A fever @ WallSt. Monopoly?..What monopoly?
Housing’s trouble is labor shortages, just saw a report in the news where 500 immigrants were pushed away….that’s just today.
.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
There’s not a “corporates” in the world, with the power to prevent cheaper foreign competitors from simply erecting warehouses and undercutting them if left free to do so. Always and everywhere, the only ones with power to do such things, are unlimited, totalitarian governments. Keep those out of the way, and no amount of scary/mean “corporates” could ever hope to “monopolise” anything.
While conversely, the bigger and less limited those governments are, the more of exactly such interference-running in favor of the highest paying lobbyists they can, hence will, be doing . Always. Everywhere. Without so much as a theoretical possibility of an exception.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
“…the only ones with power to do such things, are unlimited, totalitarian governments.”
Not that you’d guess, but where “money is free speech”, we currently reside under the rule of privately rented & controlled government.
High net worth entities have lobbyist go into D.C., make offers for favorable regulation and tax cuts, and in exchange their clients reciprocate by funding their elections.
You….didn’t think American “democracy” is still a real Democracy after Citizens United, did you?
.
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
This is why you can never trust a banker anywhere at any time. And this is why all banks need go back to being regulated as they were under Glass Steagall. It’s time to repeal Gramm-Leach-Bliley and the financial services modernization act in full and any “regulation” that came after it. Elizabeth Warren was right about needing to break up big banks. Now the medium sized banks are all at risk bc of deregulation during the Trump administration.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
YES!!
Both G/S repeal and the CFMA have turned us all into unwitting victims waiting for the next scam or crisis.
The CFMA is much less known, allows banks to buy/sell any commodity/future/derivative without limit and no requirement for public disclosure.
They can, say, corner a sector sensitive commodity, like lumber for example, then position short in builders, like, say, what just happened in 2021/22.
Granted lumber was hurt by labor shortages from Covid, but the point is there, you can’t really trust capitalistic price discovery knowing banks have so much power and you have no access to who owns what.
.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
They can also corner a sector like Representatives or Senators which has proven to be very effective.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
True, which is how Travelers got Glass-Steagall repealed, as well as the CFMA created… the best democracy money can buy!
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  MarkraD
“..you can’t really trust capitalistic price discovery knowing banks have so much power and you have no access to who owns what.”
But banks only have any power, specifically because of a lack of capitalistic price discovery.
There is absolutely NO reason to EVER bail out anything. Especially not some bank. If there ever were an exception, it would be an emergency care provider or nuke plant in the midst of a major issue. That MAY not be the ideal time to freeze their payroll and let highly critical staff starve to death… But some bank full of nothing but clueless dilettantes too dumb to build a ham sandwich????? Who have already consumed vastly more than they will ever, in hundred lifetimes as useless idiots, ever be able to produce??? In a country at least 100 to 1 overbanked already?? It’s so trivially idiotic even an average three year old should be able to figure it out.
IF you don’t bail out banks; you 1)have capitalistic price discovery. And 2) don’t have powerful banks. Banking is a commodity. Takes no more brains than flipping burgers. Burger flippers don’t magically amass vast power in capitalistic societies. They would have, though; if all the money and regulations which has gone towards bailing out and protecting banks and banksters over the past century and a half, had instead been handed, equally free of charge, to the burger flippers. Then, those guys would have been the ones little children of all ages were being told to regurgitate is “too big to fail.”
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
This was a regional bank, a star example of the Glass-Steagall era. If it didn’t collapse, not too many would know it existed.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Can you explain what Trump did and how it led to this? Connect the dots for me. Because the article you mentioned doesn’t do that.
Sounds like when Trump was blamed for the train derailment which was later proven false.
MarkraD
MarkraD
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
“Can you explain what Trump did and how it led to this? Connect the dots for me. Because the article you mentioned doesn’t do that.”
Trump exempted regionals from Dodd-Frank, which is what allowed SVB to not have to report it’s unrealized losses.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
1 year ago
Some 25 years ago, which seems like financial history, this would have been a no-event. Just a failure of some obscure local bank nobody really knew about.
Now the failure of such bank triggers panic and fear of total meltdown.
The central banking cabal have destabilized the global financial system which will remain on the brink for some uncertain future.
pimaC
pimaC
1 year ago
our “banking system” is a cleverly designed and executed scheme for bankers to steal from everyone else. And if said scheme is just a bit too slow for them, they amp it up knowing that the kingpin in the scheme, the Fed, will come to their rescue if needed.
Mjs357
Mjs357
1 year ago
Reply to  pimaC
True, it’s a Fugazi
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
The irony is that it was the clients of the bank that cause it to collapse by suddenly pulling all their money out in mass and now they are blaming everyone but themselves for the problem. I didn’t see any tech people proposing to participate in a capital increase to save the bank where they had their money.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
They took their money out of the bank.
Where did they put the money?
Immediately into another bank or Treasury Direct?
If so the money is still in the system.
Or did they keep it in currency in the car. /s
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
They should have given it to me. I would have kept it safe, honest.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Another bank.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
Speaking of TARP
Everyone thinks October 2008 a complete market meltdown month. Not so. Events (both problems and interventions) came fast and furious. Knew we were getting closer to Event Horizon when market rallies from interventions had ever shorter duration. The TARP passage (or rumor) produced a near +1000 Dow Day … didn’t last long.
Trader’s Paradise … or Death.
Avery
Avery
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
This was the exact day when the market bottomed in March 2009:
Kanjorski Spanks FASB and Mark-to-Market

On March 12 (2009), Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), Chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee, held a lengthy hearing to examine Financial Accounting Standard (FAS) 157 Mark-to-Market. In his prepared statement, Kanjorski emphasized that, “We can, however, no longer deny the reality of the pro-cyclical nature of mark-to-market accounting. It has produced numerous unintended consequences, and it has exacerbated the ongoing economic crisis. If the regulators [SEC] and standards setters [FASB] do not act now to improve the standards, then the Congress will have no other option than to act itself.”

Mark-to-bullsh-t
A Dose of Reality 5
A Dose of Reality 5
1 year ago
2 year yield down 50 basis points. Brazen collusion by SVP and its Uber wealthy customers to manipulate Fed Policy. We are now bailing out crypto speculators in New York. QT was supposed to reduce the Fed Balance sheet.
Too big to fail. We never saw it coming. Insider sales and same day failure bonuses non withstanding. Turn the blind eye to that
On a night of the Oscar’s the biggest acting award goes to SVP and the Uber smart venture capitalists. Let’s make those Fed people do our bidding. We are smarter than they are. They will not shave our easy money away from us.
There is a reason Sam Zell bought gold. This was one of them
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
“2 year yield down 50 basis points.”
Absolutely.
I’ve been warning here the past couple of years that when the worm turns (COVID stimulus stupidity wears off) “investors” concern will turn from Return ON Capital to Return OF Capital … treasuries will do well.
Billy
Billy
1 year ago
I agree. I think with the decrease of money supply (M2) it strengthens the dollar.
Banks collapsing now forces large sums of money($250k+) out of accounts and into other protection classes like crypto and PMs.
If gold rises when the USD does, then that means gold is really rising.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
1 year ago
“Yellen Said “No Bailout” But It’s a Huge Bailout of the Banking System”
The alternative?
“The feds said they will guarantee even uninsured deposits at SVB as well as at Signature Bank in New York. Typically in a bank failure those depositors would get their money back with a 15% to 20% haircut.”
Is this what everyone foaming at the mouth over?
When a bank fails the order of who “eats it”
1. shareholders (in the case of SIVB … Wiped Out)
2. bondholders … (SIVB bonds have a bid of 30 to 40 cents on the dollar from what I see)
3. uninsured depositors.
Only if bondholders get zero do uninsured depositors come into play.
I have no problem with what I see (so far) … much better than TARP.
GruesomeHarvest
GruesomeHarvest
1 year ago
There are a number of problems,
1. Short term deposits, long term loans
2. Fed constantly monkeying with interest rate to motivate behavior (aka monetary policy)
3. Excessive government taxes and over reach
4. Silly green and woke ideology
5. The dropping of standards in the name of equity.
6. No consequences for the bad decision and policies implemented by government goons.
7. A neocon foriegn policy that emphasizes bullying and starting wars
The sun will continue to set on America and the West as Russia, China and Asia rise to take our place in a new multipolar world. Hopefully it will be a more peaceful world
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
You forget:
A) A considerable excess of stupid ignorant people.
B) Mostly you can’t fix stupid.
GruesomeHarvest
GruesomeHarvest
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
But Miss Hooker, that is where wise leadership is supposed to come into play. Unfortunately, the stupid people are in charge. Ah Dimocracy!
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Democracy is a trendy euphemism for mob rule.
It typically provides a large number of “jobs” for shirkers avoiding real economic contribution.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
What’s happening now is a lot different than what happened in 2008. Back then, banks made bad loans to home buyers who then defaulted. Now, the problem is with Treasuries. The safe investments banks were supposed to make to prevent this. And it’s compounded by rumors causing bank runs. No matter how well a bank is managed, bank runs can cause failure. No bank has enough liquid assets to cover 100% of deposits. The rumors of failure become self fulfilling prophecies.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Like what we have seen in the stock market on certain stocks.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
The problem is not treasuries.
The problem is this particular bank is overly concentrated in ONE industry (silicon valley startups). That industry bleeds money by nature and needs constant infusions of cash from venture capitalists or else companies end up drawing down all their accounts to 0 (go bankrupt).
This bank has been a dead man walking for almost a year now. Many sites including Zero Hedge have said it was going to happen as month after month their assets were drawn down once the money stopped flowing into the bank.
This bank should never ever have invested in long term securities.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Yes!
“Everyone” knew that the Fed would have to raise interest rates.
“Everyone” knew that when that happened the current value of outstanding Treasuries would plummet.
Why this urge to catch a falling knife?
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
They would have sold lower yielding securities for higher yielding ones. They would have lost money doing it your way too,
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
What were their loan losses? And I agree they invested in long term treasuries. Basically the same thing I said.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
There are no loan losses or essentially none. This is a deposit run, not a bad loan problem.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
It is also a destruction of collateral by rising interest rates and mark-to-market.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
“The safe investments banks were supposed to make to prevent this.”
Not “prevent.” Only make less likely. There will always be risk. No number of illiterates in a room, deeming and holding and declaring something “risk free,” will ever make it so. Risk will always be there. Hence, some will, randomly, lose sometime. Which is exactly no argument at all, for forcefully robbing those who were better at reducing risk (the competent), in order to let those who are worse at it pretend that things really are “risk free” if only they say the “correct” spell and dance the “right” raindance. Someone’s carrying the cost for that insurance. And now, as always, that someone is, again, the most competent and least reckless.
denker
denker
1 year ago
Fox has an excellent piece entitled: Silicon Valley Bank had more red flags than a CCP meeting but regulators cared about climate not bank risks ….. at a time when banks had 600 B in portfolio losses and “commercial bank deposits fell last year for the first time since 1948 as net withdrawals hit $278 billion…”. This is the clincher: Consider the Financial Stability Oversight Council, the body created in 2010 after the financial crisis, which was meant to avert just this sort of collapse. The council is chaired today by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and includes 9 other voting members including Fed Chair Jay Powell, the heads of the FDIC and the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection (CFPB), Gary Gensler, head of the SEC.The council’s website defines its task as “identifying risks to the financial stability of the United States…” Climate change, which it describes as “an emerging threat to U.S. financial stability,” is identified in the 2022 annual report as a “key priority” and has been one of the council’s principal preoccupations for the past two years. Clown world.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  denker
Fox: Telling you The Lies You Want to Hear.
Mjs357
Mjs357
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
I want you on my critical thinking team for sure….lol. because there can’t possibly one or two data points worth reviewing in an article from a media copr you disagree with. Good job.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Mjs357
Fox was caught lying. Knowingly. Willingly. Constantly, for over a year.
Your continued trust in them is a manifestation of battered wife syndrome, and your aversion to any truth that doesn’t make you feel special.
Fox lies because it knows it’s snowflake viewers will flee to a Safe space if it hurts their feelings with the truth.
Full Stop.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
“Fox was caught lying. Knowingly. Willingly. Constantly, for over a year.”
It’s only been 2000-odd years now, since that waterwalking dude recognised lying was indeed rather universal amongst us mere humans…..
Fox, and what some yahoo in in their nominal employ, may have “admitted” to; has exactly nothing to do with it whatsoever.
For all of them: Biden, Trump, Fox, MSNBC, BBC, Churchill, even Jefferson: If they can’t prove what they say conclusively, for real, they are ether lying, just opinioneering, or spouting nonsense they don’t understand. That’s it. Argument from some supposed “authority” does not exist. You either prove it; meticulously, deductive step by deductive step; like Rothbard; or you’re just babbling nonsense and/or spouting lies.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
MSNBC: Lying whenever you’re listening.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
If course you won’t be providing proof. Like texts between anchors about how they’re lying.
Just say it over and over… at any opportunity. Blurt it to the cashier at the grocery store. Drone on about it at your nephew’s christening. The important thing is to keep saying it until you BELIEVE. At that point, Proof is irrelevant, and you’ve built a little safe space in your head. The dsm5 describes this condition as psychosis.
People retreat there when they simply cannot face reality.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Ah, I understand.
Your sources are 100% truthful all the time.
Any other sources are always lying.
Thanks for the clarity.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Oh brother, CNN is by far the bigger liar. Why do you think their ratings have plummeted?
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn

Proof? Of course not. Cultists never provide proof.

KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Of course the depositors are getting bailed out. The banks are in California and New York. Can’t upset the democratic donor base. Had the banks been in say, Oklahoma, the depositors would have eaten losses. Most of them would have been in the evil oil and gas business, so they deserve it.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Had the banks been in Oklahoma, none of the accounts would have been over the FDIC limit.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Zardoz
A LOT of rich oil people in the midwest.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Was meant in jest… I’ve seen the mansions in St Louis.
denker
denker
1 year ago
I should add (to my comment below) that this represents the return of the mark to market controversy from the GFC. The valuation of debt holdings at cost if “held to maturity” fantasy will again be discredited.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  denker
Mark to market for government bonds causes a positive feedback loop. Quite dangerous.
Gotgold
Gotgold
1 year ago
if the Fed is backstopping a facility which gives banks full collateral credit for unrealized losses due to rate hikes,
is the Fed is basically saying it’s entire hiking cycle will reverse and all bonds will eventually trade back to par?
garryl44
garryl44
1 year ago
FYI.
This is the first bank failure of the Biden presidency (while Donald Trump Jr. tweeted that he had not heard of any bank failures during his father’s presidency, there were sixteen, eight of which happened before the pandemic). In fact, generally, a few banks fail every year; it is an oddity that none failed in 2021 or 2022.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  garryl44
SVB is likely bigger than all the banks that failed under Trump combined.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
As was his deficit.
Zardoz
Zardoz
1 year ago
Reply to  garryl44
His predecessor signed 7.8 trillion in new spending. That’ll leave a mark.
denker
denker
1 year ago
This is a quid pro quo for the loyalty and generous donations to the DNC/democratic candidates. Yellen and many others in the Fed, govt. regulators, rating agencies, big audit/accounting outfits etc. all are incapable of foreseeing or willfully ignore growing risks and blatant misvaluation of assets in balance sheets. Once again Uncle Sap sticks taxpayers with the bill. There is plenty more coming down the pike as the unrecognized losses in treasuries, MBS etc. are just starting to surface.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  denker
I think the plan is to provide loans using treasuries as collateral valued at par. If the treasuries are held to maturity, it won’t cost taxpayers anything.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Nope. The plan is to sell everything off.
Whatever depositor shortfall afterwards then must be covered by all the other banks via a ‘special assessment’. So expect higher bank fees, less interest on savings etc to pay for this assessment.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Special assessments are interesting beasts.
I remember them from my condominium board days.
Owners and renters usually had little say.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Excess reserves and RRP rates will be cut to pay for SVB bank collapse. The banks saving account in the Fed will shrink.
The banks will lend and boost the economy.
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
1 year ago
And equity futures gave up most of their pop from yesterday. The elliott wave pattern I noted yesterday is done. They question is where is price support?
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
The problem is that those who had accounts at the bank are bitching and don’t want to lose money. OK, I can see that. The solution is very simple. If they want to be covered completely then they will have to pay for the extra insurance coverage. The FDIC could make the sum you pay for the insurance depend on how much you have in the bank. You have a billion there then you will have to pay up whether you are a company or individual. Don’t like the terms? Make it facultative. Then nobody is preventing you from hiring an outside insurer.
The cow has already left the barn this time but for the future, if you demand full coverage of your account in the bank, then you will have to pay for it. Problem solved. Moral hazard is satisfied.
Keeping a bank from from making stupid investment decisions is another matter and not tied to this one.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
A big part of the problem is SVB made keeping deposits with them a condition for providing loans. That should be illegal. Otherwise, deposits could be spread out to mitigate the risk.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
That is a problem but it is standard practice. We give you a loan and you bank with us otherwise why give you the loan? Spreading out the deposits for a company would not even work. There are not enough banks to have accounts with to be covered by the $250k limit. An individual could if he wasn’t too rich but that’s it. If your company has a payroll of $10,000,000 then you woold need accounts at thirty banks to be covered. Talk about friction and added cost for just a small $10 million company you can imagine the cost to bigger companies. You could in principle set up what would be fake banks in order to benefit from the guarantee but that would not solve any problems as well as the Fed surely would not give them a banking license. It’s been tried before.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
You spread it out not just for FDIC coverage, but to have assets in multiple banks in case one or more fail.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Bank runs have a tendency to spread if left unchecked. Even healthy ones succumb in the panic so diversifying would not save you.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
Yes it does.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Great Depression Banking 101
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
Fake banks, what a novel idea!
Do you have an island you prefer?
Dr Funkenstein
Dr Funkenstein
1 year ago
Give Yellen a break. She said that when we had an intelligent president named Trump. Now we have a senile old man with of posse of crooks as a tyrant
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
1 year ago
As usual, banking malfeasance, Wall Street fraud, and robbery by the FED, cause almost all the financial hardships of the people. Of course they bailed out the ones who should know better. The real welfare class has Bentleys, not cadillacs.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
SVB bank was NATIONALIZED. US gov expanded it’s power.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
Yes. When a bank fails the relevant government agencies take it over and then either close it down or sell it off. That is what the law says and those laws have been on the books since the Great Depression.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  8dots
No, it was put into receivership just like any bankrupt business is. It will be sold off to other banks in pieces.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Apparently you have forgotten sometimes there are no buyers.
8dots
8dots
1 year ago
Warren Buffet parked his money in US treasuries. BRK/B retained earnings collapsed. Coke dividends aren’t good enough. Janet Yelen bailed out Warren Buffet and those who financed US gov and bought long terms US treasuries. Next week : 0.25%.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
1 year ago
It is interesting that those who should know best either:
1) Bailed out their “friends” with the public’s money.
and/or
2) Know that the SVB situation is really, really dangerous. Which is, one must admit, an interesting proposition.
and/or
3) Are victims of extortion perpetrated by those who were bailed out.
Other possibilities?
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
1) Where was public money used? FDIC is an insurance and is funded by the users.
2) Any bank failure above a certain size is dangerous to the system which is why there are protocols to shut it down in an orderly manner.
3) I will bet you that any bank failure of the same size would have the same problem. People and companies who would lose would be pulling all the political strings to prevent them losing money. You would do the same if it had happened to you.
Other possibilities. Why SVB did not find any suitors? Did someone at the Fed or elsewhere nix the idea for ideological or other reasons? Normally their bond portfolio is high quality. It’s just underwater for now but won’t be anymore when rates decline so another bank would not have seen that as an obstacle as long as the price was right. There s a mystery there.
Mjs357
Mjs357
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
Public money – depositors over $250K are getting ALL their money back. Is that not, at this point, public funds?
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Mjs357
No they are not. The FDIC will make all the banks pay the shortfall with a special assessment so it is the banks that pay and of course that will fall on the consumer but if it was your money on the line you would be all for it. Tax money is not used. I would like to point out that is is the banks themselves that are for this solution because they see their survival at risk.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
Now that the US is borrowing so much money from their children the tax money is not so much of an issue.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78
SVB could still be sold. Their UK division was sold.
It’s likely the FED will end up buying trash like they did in 2008, so even if this isn’t technically a government bailout, it will add to inflation, which effects tax payers.
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
It was sold for one Pound! It would something similar for the rest I think. They do have a big portfolio of loans to startups and that i not exactly without risk to understate it. It’s time for the vultures to move in. Those whose loans will be sold to them will find that the new bondholders will be less forgiving than the old ones. There will be enough blood on the streets to satisfy all those who wish ill on California, tech and Silicon Valley in general.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
1 year ago
Perhaps the saddest thing about this all is that the general public does not get to see the firepower of our fully armed and operational tech industry as it destroys the lives and careers of those who win the decision to not bail out SVB customers.
One of the commenters here observed that the tech industry supports the Democrat Party and that Signature Bank’s board includes Barney Frank. This told him what to predict. His prediction was correct.
Yellen’s earlier statement? Lesson learned. What Fed/Treasury people say is baffle-with-BS purposely unrelated to reality. Whether that’s the best alternative is another question.
RunnerDan
RunnerDan
1 year ago
I figured they would pull a Lindsay Buckingham at the end of “What’s up with That” (SNL) where the host runs out of time, Lindsay’s face is all anger (Yellen Sunday AM), but by end of day, a smile breaks across the face. “Yeah…who we kidding?! We wuv rich folks! Now if the depositors were from East Palestine, we’ll then…”
Nuddernoitall
Nuddernoitall
1 year ago
““In light of the stress in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike at its next meeting on March 22,” Goldman economist Jan Hatzius said in a Sunday note.”
But, Goldman does expect 25pt increases in May, June and July.
We have PPI and CPI reports due this week. If they’re hotter than expected, the Fed must raise rates 25pts in March. (Of course, the possible 50pt increase in March is now officially dead.)
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
This all is happening again because of the deregulation of the late 1990s and early 2000s.. until we reinstate the regulations that were in place from the late 1930s until 1999, we will keep getting banking system failures.
KidHorn
KidHorn
1 year ago
What regulations would have prevented this?
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Yes. See this quote in the Wall Street article above.
“In a world of near-zero interest rates, SVB put the money in long
duration fixed-income assets in search of a higher return. Regulators
after the 2008 crisis had deemed these Treasury bonds and
mortgage-backed securities nearly risk-free for the purpose of measuring
bank capital.”
Regulators allowed banks to do this and so they did.
goldguy
goldguy
1 year ago
I bet the uninsured depositers get IOU’s
dtj
dtj
1 year ago
“Goldman Sachs no longer expects the Fed to hike rates in March, cites stress on banking system”
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
Memento.mori
Memento.mori
1 year ago

“You should thank God for bank bailouts—
absolutely required to save your civilization. So I think when you have
troubles like that you shouldn’t be bitching about a little bailout. You should
have been thinking it should have been bigger. You should thank God the
government saved the big banks and their investors. Now, if you talk about
bailouts for everybody else, there comes a place where if you just start
bailing out all the individuals instead of telling them to adapt, the culture
dies. Suck it in and cope.”
Charlie Munger, Christian Science
Monitor
, September 30, 2010
grepper
grepper
1 year ago
Reply to  Memento.mori
you ever hear his opinions about wall street and bankers? put up some of those quotes. he has no love for them and will be disgusted with the behavior that we witnessed to cause these latest failures.
no one wants collapse. we want to hold people accountable for their poor decisions.
we can not continue to paper over poor financial decisions. there are ugly ugly consequences to that.
goldguy
goldguy
1 year ago
It was only a matter of time before it broke, now the Fed will do another irresponsible thing and pivot to lower rates.,. we live in bozarro world
Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
1 year ago
Reply to  goldguy
The regional banks are going to get exposed further. The emperor has no clothes on again.

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