Yen Sinks to a 20-Year Low, But BOJ Sticks With Ultra-Low Interest Rates

Japanese Yen chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

In 2011 it took only 75.5 Yen to buy one US dollar. This morning the Yen sank to a fresh low of 132 Yen to buy one US dollar.

Important to Remain Stable 

Bloomberg reports Japan Officials Back on Alert After Yen Sets Fresh 20-Year Lows

Senior Japanese government officials said they were closely watching currency markets with a sense of urgency Tuesday as they returned to a heightened state of alert following a renewed slide in the yen to fresh two-decade lows.

“It’s important that exchange rates remain stable, and reflect economic fundamentals,” said Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki speaking to reporters in Tokyo after the yen breached the 132 mark against the dollar earlier in the day. “The government is watching foreign exchange market moves and their impact on the Japanese economy with a sense of urgency.”

Hoot of the Day

The yen has fallen 43% since 2011 and 22% since 2021 vs the US dollar and Japan is preaching stability. 

The Bank of Japan said it will stick with aggressive monetary policy to support the economy and raise inflation. 

“The BOJ will persistently continue with the current strong monetary easing and firmly support economic activities,” said Kuroda. “We’re aiming for a virtuous cycle in which prices rise moderately while corporate profits, employment and wages improve.”

And alleged “virtuous cycle of inflation” is worth another hoot. 

Sure Fire Proposal to End Japanese Deflation

It’s time to dust off my 2016 friendly advice to the Bank of Japan.

Please reconsider Mish’s Sure Fire Proposal to End Japanese Deflation: Negative Sales Taxes, 1% Monthly Tax

Four Pronged Proposal to End Japanese Deflation

  1. Negative Sales Taxes
  2. One Percent Tax, Per Month, on Government Bonds
  3. National Tax Free Lottery
  4. Hav-a-Kid

Negative Sales Taxes

People hoard cash, especially the miserly wealthy. We need to unlock that cash and put it to work.

To free up this money, I propose negative sales taxes. The more you spend, the more money you get back as a direct tax credit against income taxes.

One Percent Tax Per Month on Government Bonds

Negative interest rates are in vogue. However, all negative interest rates have done is to get those with money to hoard bonds.

I have just the solution. Tax government bonds at the rate of 1% per month.

No one will want them. Hedge funds and pension plans will dump sovereign bonds en masse.

This will allow governments to buy every bond in existence immediately. As soon as the government corners the bond market (at effectively zero cost), debt and interest on the debt will truly be owed to itself.

Once the bond market is 100% cornered, I propose government debt be declared null and void annually. This would effectively wipe out the entirety of Japan’s debt.

National Tax Free Lottery

Every Japanese citizen 16 years and older is automatically entered into a weekly lottery.

A day of the week for the previous week is pulled at random. Then the name of a person is drawn at random. If you purchased at least $15 by a credit card on that day, and your name is drawn, you win $1,000,000.

If there is no winner, the amount rolls over. The winner gets a debit card and must spend at least half of the money in a year or the remaining amount is forfeited. 

This item is revised from the original post. 

Hav-a-Kid

Demographics in Japan are a huge problem. Although various incentive have been tried, none of them have gone far enough.

I propose a reduction in income taxes for everyone starting a family. The following scale applies.

  • One new child: 50% reduction in income taxes for a period of ten years.
  • Two new children: 100% reduction in income taxes for a period of twenty years.
  • Three new children: Subsidized housing, free healthcare, free schooling, and no income taxes for thirty years.
  • Those with one new child in the last five years get full credit if they add at least one more child in the next five years.

Guarantee

I absolutely guarantee my plan will end deflation in a jiffy.

My Price

My price for this amazing plan is $0. It’s free for the taking.

Yet, zero seems woefully inadequate for such a brilliant plan that is absolutely guaranteed to work, especially when Japan has tried and failed for decades to produce inflation.

Moreover, paying nothing hardly seems correct for a country so desperate to get out of deflation.

Thus, if offered, I will graciously accept $1,000,000 for each one-tenth of one percent rise in Japanese inflation if Japan simply follows my plan.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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16 Comments
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8dots
8dots
3 years ago
USDJPY weekly, options : if this week close > Apr 25 high the trend might be up. If not, it’s another failed attempt to move higher.
FromBrussels
FromBrussels
3 years ago
..the western (Japan included ) over the eyeballs endebted financial system at the end of its fn wits ! ….. with most natural resources coming from the ‘undemocratic enemies’ on top of that !….LOL … I just read that the US finally reached the rather unsettling conclusion that 90% of rare earth metals, desperately needed for the fn ‘green’ energy reconversion, come from China ! So from now on the US will no longer mind destroying what’s left of its environment, excavating the desperately needed poisonous stuff ….in the fn name of climate change in particular…..Mankind is definitely screwed, no doubt about it, even resilience gets exhausted at one point….
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
And now we’re about to restrict importing products made by Chinese slaves. Safe to say anything made by slaves isn’t something we could produce at anywhere near the same cost. Perfect timing to make inflation even worse.
And Biden is going to drop tariffs on solar panels to help fight higher gasoline prices. Not sure how one leads to the other.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
Reply to  FromBrussels
Saudi Arabia will be declared a thriving democracy, soon.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
3 years ago
But I thought a cheap currency was a good thing! That means Japan’s exports will be cheaper, right? Gosh, isn’t that a good thing?
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
20 years ago, this would have been great. Now Japanese companies don’t make their products in Japan. They’re made in China and cars for North America are made in the US and Mexico. Mostly what it does is help corporate profits in yen.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
In all seriousness, things about to get serious. Soon.
Yen tanking (to usd) no joke. It will drag other Asian currencies lower and put unbearable pain on Beijing. Yuan had weakened a bit earlier this year, but been firming recently. Been my most likely Black Swan since last year … major devaluation to $US.
On closer look, the Target statement today quite ominous.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
Another modest proposal: stop measuring wealth by fake GDP (of every kind), invented by quack econ doctorates (that also brought you the GFC).
Japan produces her wealth in quality manufacturing which cannot be matched by anybody but a few.
Average Japanese lives in cities in pigeonhole size apartments. Do they want to marry and have kids?
Social issues, women are second class citizens despite official campaigns for change. Do they want to have kids?
Somewhere there is the answer to declining population.
Billy
Billy
3 years ago
IMO Japan is a decade ahead of us. That’s why our politicians don’t stop illegal aliens from coming, staying here, and having a lot of kids. That’s why our politicians let out millions of criminals from our jails and prisons. They pay less and we end up paying more and they have a scapegoat.
Our biggest problem is when everyone stops buying our debt because their problems become too big. Meanwhile, what Creepy Joe has admitted as our biggest problem(Our National Debt), will continue to get worse at a criminal rate. All while half of our population has their hand out.
Just remember to vote today if you are in one of those 7 states. It will at least make you feel like you were a part of a democracy.
Sunriver
Sunriver
3 years ago
Sometimes there just isn’t enough ‘Bling’ in the world to make one spend one more Yen.
I believe that the post 2000 internet craze that manifested into enormous Consumer Discretionary ‘Bling’ purchases, which caused storage units to be packed with ‘Crap’, has finally subsided.
Most of these thoughts come from this post above:
“People hoard cash, especially the miserly wealthy.”
Mish, I believe it is time to do a musical tribute: B.B. King’s song ‘The Thrill is Gone’.
RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“Important to Remain Stable”
Stability left the room in early 2020 and hasn’t been seen since.
killben
killben
3 years ago
Einstein proved right once again on difference between genius and stupidity. Stupidity always wins
Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  killben
Stupid has the numbers.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  killben
Stupidity is easy to verify, genius is not.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
What you propose wouldn’t create overall inflation, but it would create massive inflation in the stock market, housing, and precious metals. if I had to spend my savings and not buy government bonds, I would invest it. Not spend it on goods and services.
Billy
Billy
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
I feel a lot of people and businesses are saving and not spending. I think mostly businesses are expecting prices on imported goods to come down relative to how they went up due to the insane increase of ocean freight. I think people are not spending due to economic and overall feeling of the world situation. That could be measured by the University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (UMCSENT) chart. That chart shows that the average American thinks things are just as bad as the worst recessions since the great depression.

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