No cargo ships leaving China for the West Coast ports in the past 12 hours. 
41 Scheduled, Zero Leaving
For the first time since the pandemic, No Cargo Ships Leaving China for the US.
Six days ago, 41 vessels were scheduled to depart China for the San Pedro Bay Complex, which encompasses both the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach in California. On Friday, it was zero.
President Donald Trump’s trade war imposed massive tariffs on most Chinese imports last month. That’s led to fewer ships at sea carrying less cargo to America’s ports. For many businesses, it is now too expensive to do business with China, one of America’s most important trading partners.
Officials are concerned not just about the lack of vessels leaving China, but the speed at which that number dropped.
“That’s cause for alarm,” said Mario Cordero, the CEO of the Port of Long Beach. “We are now seeing numbers in excess of what we witnessed in the pandemic” for cancellations and fewer vessel arrivals.
The busiest ports in the country are experiencing steep declines in cargo. The Port of Long Beach is seeing a 35-40% drop compared to normal cargo volume. The Port of Los Angeles had a 31% drop in volume this week, and the Port of New York and Jersey says it’s also bracing for a slowdown. On Wednesday, the Port of Seattle said it had zero container ships in the port, another anomaly that hasn’t happened since the pandemic.
“That’s because just nothing is being shipped over,” port commissioner Ryan Calkins told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.
“If things don’t change quickly, I’m talking about the uncertainty that we’re seeing, then we may be seeing empty products on the shelves. This is now going to be felt by the consumer in the coming 30 days,” said Cordero.
“If we don’t start to see a de-escalation of the situation with China, if we don’t start to see more of those trade deals, then we could be in a situation where some of these effects get more entrenched and are more adverse,” said Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc.
The CNN Post is an Exaggeration
Traffic is really down 25 to 35 percent, so far.
But it’s early. Here is some simple math as to how bad it could get.
What’s the Math?
- Nothing * Anything = Nothing
- No Trade Deficit.
- No Tariffs Collected.
No tariffs will be collected from China US citizens on goods from China.
But look at the bright side. If this continued, the US trade deficit with China will head to zero.
Side Impacts
- Chinese merchants will not buy anything from the US either.
- Thousands of US small businesses dependent on China and unable to easily fix supply chains will go out of business.
- Negative impact to US, China, and global GDP
- Negative impacts to job growth
- Potential stagflationary price shock
What Do We Call This?
Winning!
100 Percent Tariffs on Barbie Dolls
Please note Trump Threatens 100 Percent Tariffs on Mattel and Barbie Dolls
“I’ve heard [Mattel] said: ‘Well we’re going to go counter, we’re going to try going someplace else,’ ” Trump said in the Oval Office on Thursday. “That’s OK, let him go, and we’ll put a 100 percent tariff on his toys, and he won’t sell one toy in the United States, and that’s their biggest market.”
Obviously, Barbie is a matter of national security, like movies and everything else.
“You know, somebody said, ‘Oh, the shelves are going to be open,’” Trump said. “Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”
Dolls that cost more (not a couple of buck but double or more) is also winning.
Everything is winning.
And best of all we will balance our budget with tariffs because Nothing * Anything = Nothing .
Wait a second, I meant to say, and best of all we will bring Barbie production back to the US as a matter of national security, just like movies.
Movies Are Now a National Security Threat
On May 4, I noted Movies Are Now a National Security Threat, 100 Percent Tariffs Announced
“This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
Irony of the Year
On May 9, Trump posted on Truth Social “CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!”
For discussion of the irony of the year, please see 80 Percent Tariff on China ‘Seems Right’ Says Trump, But It’s Nearly as Stupid
An 80 percent tariff is nearly as stupid as a 145 percent tariff because most trade with China would still stop. Trade might stop at 50 percent.
And it is US consumers who pay that tariff, not China.
Despite ranting about “closed markets”, Trump insists Barbie dolls and movies be made in the US.
Someone in the Administration needs to give Trump a math lesson or resign in protest, but they are all a bunch of ass-licking suck-ups.
The Tylers over at ZeroHedge have recently published a much more thorough analysis which agrees 100% with my earlier comments and destroys the thesis of Mish’s above article.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fake-news-narrative-empty-ports-empty-shelves-suffers-spectacular-implosion
“Despite ranting about “closed markets”, Trump insists Barbie dolls and movies be made in the US.”
It’s about fair and equal trade. HUGE difference.
“No tariffs will be collected from
ChinaUS citizens on goods from China.”I wish there was a even a small chance this was true. Unfortunately Trump has said he wishes even the evil communists to do well. So in all likelihood we will cut them a deal.
“The CNN Post is an Exaggeration”
Tell me it ain’t so. Not trustworthy CNN.
“100 Percent Tariffs on Barbie Dolls”
Oh no, not that! That would be the end of the world!!!!!
And it is not just Barbie dolls. For those with daughters, you’ll already know about American Girl dolls. The ‘hoot’, “American Girl dolls have been manufactured in 2 different towns: Rodental, Germany, and Shenzhen, China.”
They have NEVER been made in the USA>
How could anyone not see this coming? I went on a buying spree before January, stocking up on anything I remotely fancied from China. Admittedly, I didn’t buy the pair of RC sailboats, or the prefab house, or the inflatable doll. However, with the exception of some crappy car seat covers from my Wrangler, I was happy. Plus Ali-express gave extra discounts for the more I spent–how cool as that?
We’re now seeing a different version of the COVID spike, a rapid collapse in sales, a rebound, gross over-ordering… etc. The only question is how does it end.
I follow LNG shipments out of the US via Marine Traffic and noticed that the LNG carrier Castillo de Merida has been docked for several days at Sabine Pass awaiting a destination for its cargo. Usually these ships fill and sail immediately to the far east, EU, China or India, yet this one has no orders.
Only 27 U.S. LNG cargoes sailed from the U.S. last week carrying 101 billion cuft of LNG. This is down fro 129 billion cuft only two weeks ago.
China has been turning away our shipments so perhaps they are simply not sailing that direction?
Anyone else follow this stuff and have some additional information?
Let’s see how all the ass-licking suck-ups handle the embargoes as America is cut off from trading with the rest of the world.
The rest of the world can only take so much of this shit.
You forget the sheer size of the US market. If one country avoids it, or two, or a dozen; others won’t.
Market share, always dominates.
I had an interesting weekend studying trade routes by ship and found it quite interesting to actually see for myself where the ships go to and from.
Quite frankly, the U.S. is only a small part of the vast global economy and it is clearly changing by the minute. Ships going to and coming from China are everywhere. All over the world. U.S. inbound or outbound traffic is impressive as well but nothing like Chanas trade network.
The world economy outside the U.S. is huge and now I understand how we can only represent 11% of Chinas exports. China’s domestic consumers gobble up a massive percentage of Chinas GDP so the U.S. might consume 4% of Chinas GDP?
Basically a fart in the wind.
Methinks that trump has trodden in a bucket of chit!
.
And now we know why Trump agreed to zero port terminal automation on East Coast when local longshoremen trade unions threatend new strike in early January 2025. No need to automate a process which doesn’t exist anymore 🙂
All this bad news yet China admits they are negotiating with the United States administration on a trade deal. The U.K. has concluded a trade deal with the U.S. and India,canada, and Mexico are negotiating trade with the present administration. Maybe there is good news after all.
We have our number 1 trade envoy working on this. Bozo.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-talks-defuse-trade-row-resume-geneva-2025-05-11/
You’re upsetting the blissful illusion people with TDS here have enveloped themselves with. Please have a heart. They’ve been under way too much stress.
The end game is already written… The Orange Fool will capitulate and accept a nothing-burger agreement that will hardly move the needle in the trade relationship (except maybe making Chinese products slightly more expensive for Americans) but he’ll hail it as the greatest, most beautiful agreement since the Magna Carta.
Meanwhile, in the wake of all this nonsense, America’s leadership and reputation lies in tatters, with the world determined to reduce American influence whenever and wherever possible, to the detriment of the USA.
I adore absolute certainty. It demonstrates critical thinking at its worst.
The youth unemployment in China is high. Chinese co are encouraged by the authoritarian regime to employ more workers than they should. These co started shedding jobs and pay their existing employees with IOUs. New college grads cannot find jobs. The PBOC eased conditions to stimulate the economy. If the military and security forces are paid by IOUs centrifugal forces might break China apart. We are blessed with oil, NG and coal. China isn’t. Trump has only nice things to say about Xi. He blames the stupid people before him. If oil prices will rise we can survive. Trumps game theory might be to oust Xi when inflation will rise.
I know right? 10 D chess, lol.
M. E. is actually thinking. Nothing is certain. So, place your bets/buy insurance.
In China state’s bureaucrats control the people. After 2008 China built factories, infrastructure and RE financed by states debt. But in 2011/12 there were already some cracks. Under Xi states bureaucrats, which are mid management, gained power. They ran China for the central gov. If China flips to consumption, transferring power from the bureaucrats to private hands, the states bureaucrats will lose power. They are not going to like it. The bottom line: consumption in the US is too high and in China industrial production is too high. US consumers are not going to like it, as well as Chinese ants, when both econ will re balance
You just described the US. Show us the charts that prove this!!! We are the ones that suffer!
The data is right before your eyes, if you cared to look. The only problem is Chinese data is notoriously inaccurate. By the way, all of this was predictable about 20 years ago when China started building vast housing complexes. People bought them as investments. . And more were built. They built a bubble. All it takes is a slight decline and the bubble pops. We are witnessing the pop.
Which is not to say, the US does NOT have a bubble of its own–it does.
so now you want to central plan china and usa economy. got it. you are brilliant. might want to send resume to zion don.
If China no longer trades with US then there will be strong argument that they no longer require US bonds.
If the US wants to become a separate independent trading entity, then the US dollar will be challenged to remain the world’s reserve currency.
The US can retain the $ as the reserve currency with one ‘simple’ plan–a means to repay bonds as they fall due. This should have been Trump’s plan.
That would require fiscal responsibility and growing the economy to increase the velocity of money through the system. Generating tax revenues as a gland vital part of the process. Instead we have intense regulation of the sourcing of materials and labor and an uncertain business environment.
Trump has shot our economy right in the kneecap and blown out the femoral artery in the process. All the band-aid phony trade agreements are just pablum. Headlines that change every day do not impress those that make hundreds of billion dollar decisions as to where to do business.
Of course time will tell if the BS sticks to the wall… By the time trump left office last time, we were sucking mud…
“But look at the bright side. If this continued, the US trade deficit with China will head to zero.” My understanding is China is currently scaling back their holding of US debt but rolling over most of their maturing debt. One consequence of the bright side quoted from the article is they will quit replacing maturing debt placing more pressure on our interest rates and the fed to print money and buy what the Chinese do not. And we are to believe this is more winning with higher debt service, lower value dollars to buy more expensive goods and services and diminishing inventory on store shelves? Republicans may be in for huge midterm losses if they do not curb this madness soon.
i’ve been trading FX for decades. i’m convinced from many sources like economist newspaper and others……..the chinese long ago layed off all their dollars by entering long term purchase or lease contracts to acquire commodities mostly all over the globe the past 25 years. those contracts are in us dollars. laying off the bad money onto others.
in 2008/9 when USD was $70 at nadir and commodities plunged China made a killing. In 2025 many foreign co might invest trillions in the US. If next week Trump will sign new trade deals the want of dollars will rise while other currencies will plunge.
what do you mean new trade deals. he’s a schizo. his big liberation day was idiotic. nobody on planet earth with half a brain believes a word out of his mouth. he started a trade war. amerikans and others will be hurt by it. he’s a moron. like his voters. democracy works. go read republic of plato. they knew.
AI data centers, other hub with their satellites and F-15 EX sales will boost the economy. They will fill gov, states and towns coffers. If they cut debt trust in the dollar will rise.
selling arms comes with huge contingent liabilities. 9.11.01 and iraq and afghanistan lost wars and tens of trillions……….stupid is what stupid does. amerikans are stupid. imperial warmongers. this has been done in world history before.
from asia times. “But by preparing its citizens for a protracted trade war, it would appear that China’s strategy, similarly to Mao’s, is to slow down the process and grind out the best deal it can over time.
Beijing believes that Chinese consumers are more capable of “eating bitterness” (coping with hardship) than Americans. So, US diplomats would be well advised to dip into “On Protracted War” to understand more of China’s President Xi’s intentions.”
Beijing May believe that Chinese consumers are more capable of “eating bitterness” (coping with hardship) than Americans, but I don’t necessarily agree at all with that sentiment.
Sure China forces there people to cope with hardship as a general statement, but is that really coping or simply doing what you’re told?
China has grown immensely over the last decade. Many have worked and saved in good paying jobs, and they bought Homes, Cars and the like. Once you TASTE IT, it’s hard to go back to NOT being able to do so. It will not be easy, and perhaps not even possible, to pull the rug out from under, literally Millions upon Millions without Massive Disruptions.
Gone are the “Tiananmen Square” days as a possibility. They had a much firmer grip on far more uneducated people than now. Too much news and information everywhere now. IMO it would do far more to motivate a movement, then to shut one down…
Before trumps ludicrous trade war, the U.S. only consumed 11% of Chinas exports. Now it is a whole lot less. And we get ALL of our rare earths from them (with the exception of some lithium). Our military can not function without those rare earths for the guidance & sub-systems. Our fancy fighter jets? What good are they without functional armaments and their sub-systems?
Trump is a simpleton when it comes to business, he is good at intimidation and using bankruptcy as weapons.
Those unemployed Chinese workers can go work on the new 3′ natural gas pipeline from Russia, straight into the heart of China’s production centers.
Steel pipe does not have any 125% tariff there. Unlike our domestic producers.
China does not need us for anything. Face it trump blew it and will now have to blow XI to get himself out of this mess.
Chinas economy is hurting. OAN had a news segment showing Chinese in the streets protesting. They estimate 16 million people aren’t being paid. The unrest will only get worse.
Long Bitch Port looks like a Madison Ave art gallery.
I agree 100% Unrest as in “taking things away” is different, than unrest as in be quiet and do what you are told.
OAN isn’t news. It’s right wing propaganda. I don’t believe this for a sec.
You probably only believe CNN, MSNBC and the democrats.
I watch neither. I do read the WSJ which is certainly right wing. I’ll say it again – OAN isn’t news, it’s right wing propaganda.
Wait for the unrest in the US when the great unwashed realise you can’t get $20 sneakers from Walmart anymore.
They’re good sneakers, too 🙂
I have often thought, when we want to go somewhere, we have to build a ramp that goes from here to there. Lots of people are not equipped to just leap across. But hey, opening a gaping chasm between the sides, and in the path of the USA masses, will be interesting. It was interesting in the interval between the World Wars.
Pandemic vibes, but let’s see what really pans out. I have a fair stash of necessities. I am particularly interested to see what happens to housing of the population in the USA, if this comes up “stagflation.” Many do not have a substantial margin of safety. Maybe that is a product of chasing too many dolls?
China contribute nothing to our national interest. Vietnam can produce barbies.The liberal EU suffer from sarcoma. Next week Trump will visit the ME. He is going to sell the Arabs leaders hundreds of F-15 EX: to the Saudis, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain on top of helicopters, military cargo planes, civilian nuke plants, AI…which will boost our export and industrial base in the next decade. The F-15 EX waiting list is long: Japan, S. Korea, Poland, Indonesia, Egypt, Singapore and Israel in the back of the line. If pacifist Canada behaves Boeing will share production with them and build their aerospace industry after they lost it to China and Macron.
“China contribute nothing to our national interest.”
Gee, what are clothes, medicines, tools, furniture, electronics ….? Those are “nothing”? Interesting contortions, there. We were going to be rich, starting on day one, remember? Trade wars are easy, remember? I am quoting your beloved Chairman. Perhaps here should be Little Red Book of this thoughts. But that would be too quotable.
China having the industrial pollution and mind-numbing cheap job s on their land, is “nothing”?
If Lula ousted BA will share production with Embraer in Brazil.
233 Billion spent on stock buybacks in April. This is all money that was not spent on factories and workers. American corporations are cannibalizing themselves for the sake of elevated stock prices.
And for how many years now? 35? Seems so. I have been saying that for years.
That is why any long term solution for America is going to cause short term pain.
Can Americans stand for the pain? Seems unlikely but I have faith.
Reagan got the stock buybacks ball rolling. Welch picked up the ball and ran. Before Reagan stock buybacks were considered insider trading.
Old news, really.
Stock buybacks are a chronic disease. I wish it were acute and quick with a resulting immunity.
Destroying commerce also destroys tax revenue. No tariffs can be collected on cancelled orders or rejected shipments.
No income taxes collected on laid off dock workers, truckers or receiving warehouses.
Who does trump work for?
Hmm. Trump has been convinced to support the EU against Russia and foe Ukraine. Putin is very upset. White House security is a disaster.
Maybe we can circle back to what we were doing, as perhaps we are now doing, with Iran and Pacific Partnerships. But only after Dear Chairman has captured elections by criticizing them.
Trump needs to take up division by zero. He can get everything he wants that way, infinite ships from China, infinite trade deals, infinite Barbies.
+ 10
Funny stuff!
Infinite meme tokens and digital baseball cards with heroic images of him, for cash, that’s easy. Zero marginal cost.
The Port of LA’s public data shows inbound container traffic bouncing back to normal levels, starting this coming week, around 100K TEU/week.
https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
But don’t let reality interfere with your apocalypse.
P.S. If you need to reconcile this with “no shipments from China departing in next 24 hours” (which I do not believe is substantive since the time period is too short)… maybe they’re trans-shipping via 3rd ports, or maybe it’s China that’s in trouble and not the U.S.
That is planned to ship, actual shipment is 0
No, these are ships en route with known ETAs.
Seattle also has inbound traffic.
First rule of analysis is to get into the primary data, not simply parroting someone else’s misleading chatter.
I could tell you that “no passenger flights left China for 5 hours yesterday”, and it’d be true – because every airport has a few hours of overnight downtime – but it would Not mean that no one was leaving China!
Mish’s parroting a misleading “no one left for 12 hours” without giving the whole story.
You can watch Seattle inbound traffic here: note several container ships arriving from Asia next few days.
https://www.myshiptracking.com/ports/port-of-seattle-in-us-usa-id-375
A couple of questions:
1. Where are all those containers coming from?
2. How many of those containers will be empty? (In March 2025, 270k containers were empty).
ELI5: Why are they shipping empty containers? I can’t imagine that we produce enough for them to backhaul most of those containers full or even partially full of freight.
Re “empty containers” – provide source for data, or it doesn’t count. I gave you my source.
Empties only normally go on return trips after coming in full. That wouldn’t be the case here. So I greatly doubt there are empties moving from Shanghai to LA, it wouldn’t be worth it.
Regarding “where from”, I don’t personally care as long as traffic is normal.
You can choose to believe whatever you want, but it’s a grave disservice toMish’s readership for him to be uncritically parroting Newsweek and NPR and a bunch of 2-week old scare stories.
I didn’t reference it because It was your source.
Not on the link I provided. You’re being deliberately unhelpful so I’ done with you.
It’s from the same source. Not the same page.
https://www.portoflosangeles.org/business/statistics/container-statistics
Thanks, that’s much more helpful. On your link for March 2025, you can see by subtracting ”loaded in” from “loaded out” that 98% of the empties were outbound. And that’s normal, similar to 2024. It reflects the prevailing trade imbalance.
March 2025 inbound loaded is stronger than 2024, could be due to front-running of tariffs.
Based on the weekly container count data (on the link I provided), what I expect next on the monthly page (that you provided) is a weak April followed by a return to normal in May.
A return to normal in shipments from China? Not likely with 145% tariffs kicking in on items coming from there.
I suspect fewer ships and containers will be inbound than what is expected.
The data on inbound en-route ships suggest LA port traffic is going to return to normal. It doesn’t say whether the ships are “from China”.
Looks like the week of May 25-31 will be 46,948 TEU. Only 9 vessels. Down over 50% from May 18-24.
https://signal.portoptimizer.com/
Yes, it’ll be fun to watch. May 31 is 20 days from now. The data for that week may not be final. Some additional cargo ships may arrive that week, that not have departed or been counted yet.
The “readership” are grownups who can draw their own conclusions.
Based on a lot of comments I read, I’d say “grownups” is rather optimistic! Also, it sadly appears that a lot of commenters prefer to parrot the conclusions of others, rather than actually drawing their own.
Week 22 at LA PortOptimizer (May 22-31) is pretty concerning at only 46,948 TEU inbound. Those numbers bounce around week-to-week. Maybe there will be a partial rebound in June TEU numbers?
Read the ZeroHedge take, it’s a tour-de-force summary.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fake-news-narrative-empty-ports-empty-shelves-suffers-spectacular-implosion
Don’t these very large container ships burn straight bunker oil? Not very green for the virtue signal crowd.
And this is relevant to shipping numbers how?
– No cargo ships leaving China for the West Coast ports in the past 12 hours. > What a surprise, NOT! Everyone doing business with China, could have, would have, and definitely “Should Have” known this was coming,
– Tariff’s on many Chinese imports went into effect last Month. > Tell Everyone something “They Don’t Already Know”
– That’s led to fewer ships at sea carrying less cargo to America’s ports. > Tell Everyone something “They Don’t Already Know”
– For many businesses, it is now too expensive to do business with China, one of America’s most important trading partners. > Sounds like a lot of Businesses had their head in the sand, and were unprepared for the inevitable, for roughly a year or more now. In the existence of the companies, not one ever came up with the idea, that maybe, just maybe, they should have a secondary source developed ASAP. So “ALL THIS TIME” led to no effort, no other suppliers, and now they have no company. Wow! That is NOT the fault of Tariffs, or The Trump Administration…
– Officials are concerned not just about the lack of vessels leaving China, but the speed at which that number dropped. > Best to “Pay Attention” Officials, WTF have you been doing all this time?
– “That’s cause for alarm,” said the CEO of the Port of Long Beach. > Um NO! That would have been 12+ Months ago.
– “We are now seeing numbers in excess of what we witnessed in the pandemic” for cancellations and fewer vessel arrivals. > No Kidding, I’m Shocked… NOT!! My goodness do these people not listen to the News? Watch TV, awake?
>> It just keeps getting sillier and more and more “Hair on Fire” moments about things that we were told to expect a year or more ago. My goodness this is just ridiculous!!
– The CNN Post is an Exaggeration > Understatement of the Month!!!
Side Impacts:
– Chinese merchants will not buy anything from the US either. > Nope!
– What Do We Call This? > “What was to be expected” only a tad later than I actually did…
Wow! You knew that this was all going to happen 12 months ago. And everyone else in America was clueless. I am so impressed!
Now, since you know the future better than everyone you just mentioned, please tell us what will happen after the next 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months.
This is your chance to demonstrate your clairvoyance.
Also, by any chance, can you refer us to your posts from 12 months ago where you
predicted all this? I would like to go back and read them so I can worship you as the greatest prognosticator of our time!
Actually Papa, it was “On Oct. 5, 2016”, before a crowd in Henderson, Nev., the then-candidate pledged to “apply tariffs and taxes to the countries that cheat … that way our businesses can compete and we don’t lose our jobs.” & “We will establish tariffs,” he added a few days later in Gettysburg, Pa. “There have to be consequences.” He then went on to a term in office where he pursued and implemented very similar policies.
However in November 2024 (6 Months ago): While campaigning for a second term in office, President-elect Donald Trump declared“tariff” to be his “favorite word” and “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” He regularly said he would use tariffs to raise federal revenue and increase jobs and manufacturing in the United States.
For example, at an August campaign rally, Trump suggested broadly placing tariffs on imports from overseas, saying, “We’re going to have 10 to 20% tariffs on foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years.”
Trump has liked Tariffs for many Years! Before he was in office last time, he ran on the premise, and this time He did once again. Did people not consider that He would do so once again, because nothing at all, in the least, has changed since then, or that he would just say hmm… I don’t care about that NOW that I’m in office… Yeah OK, Sure… C’Mon you know that, and they knew or should have know this was coming.
I am not suggesting that everyone would have the resources and proper planning to do so, but many, many should have. It’s their business, and livelihood! The weak will fall to the wayside as always, and some will get scooped up, and the inventory too. We will go without stuff too, and that should be OK short term if necessary for many. Like not getting a phone call returned for a DR. And waiting 3-4 Months for your Appt. Isn’t a pain in the A#& too, but hey things change “ALL THE TIME” and last I check it was called Life!
If this were an actual economics blog we’d all know by know that in the biz world no one wants tariffs b/c they’re bad for profits: if company eats the tariff cost they lose profit directly, and if they pass the cost on then they crimp demand and lose profits via reduced revenue.
So next we need to understand that every major business that intends to stay in business will have experienced tariffs increasing since 2018, under 2 Administrations, led by both parties, and seen the clear possibility of further tariffs during the last election cycle. They will all have had contingency plans in place for tariffs.
What would a business do? One side of the plan will involve tariff evasion or mitigation strategies. If they can’t relocate manufacturing, they could still relocate final assembly or packaging, to evade country-of-origin rules. Big guys like Apple are shifting assembly from China to India. Other companies with fewer resources might settle for more creative and less expensive ways to get suitable country-of-origin on the labels
But … another side of the corporate contingency plan would be to play on people’s fears, to create media frenzies, to panic citizens. Not for panic’s sake but to pressure government officials to reduce tariffs because of exaggerated negative effects.
These strategies by major advertisers would immediately gain support from ad-dependent legacy media companies who are already opposed to current elected officials for their own reasons.
And what about the Wall Street titans? They don’t want to see profits dip either. Knowing that a media-induced panic is in everyone’s contingency plan, maybe they stage a little market panic too, dumping extra shares to create a stock market plunge. And then crank up profits by quietly buying the artificial dip and squeezing those dumb enough to stay short. What’s not to like?
Most of what I’m seeing about “trade collapse” is hyped up anecdotal B.S., consistent with large corporations fighting back via media to preserve their profits.
There is going to be some real trade damage since tariffs are costly, but there’s no cause for anxiety unless you’re a Chinese Stooge, like a major shareholder of a major importer with no decent contingency options.
So as Mark Twain put it around 150 years ago, if you don’t read the news you’re uninformed, but if you read the news uncritically you’re misinformed.
Very well stated!
Same goes for you.
Your posts are too long.
Make ’em shorter, so readers don’t have to hide them.
P.S. No Worship Please, I’m just someone that pays attention, reads a lot, and know a few people here and there. Oh, and some common sense goes pretty far too…
Nice try. But those weren’t your posts or predictions. Lol!
Where are “your” predictions?
Show me where “you” said to everyone here a year ago that trade with China would be crippled by tariffs of 145%.
Then tell me what the tariffs on China will be in 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Since it is so obvious to you.
– Nice try. But those weren’t your posts or predictions.
> No Sh#&! I don’t work in the WH, and I don’t speak with the Trump Administration directly, so I wouldn’t know it, until they told “Me & Everyone Else” that was paying attention. Just because you were not paying attention, doesn’t mean others weren’t either…
>> “Literally 10 Months Ago” (I already sent you the info) You, Me, and Everyone in The World, that was paying attention heard “Trump Tell Us” Tariffs were coming. I did, and many I know did as well. You obviously didn’t and thats OK Papa, you’re good at oil, but suck at Tariffs and getting Info about them when offered up. Try to pay better attention, and you will learn too…
– Where are “your” predictions?
> Not predictions now, but Facts, and you had them too, but again You weren’t listening…
Lol! That’s a lot of verbal diarrhea to cover up that you, in fact, did not predict 145% tariffs.
Useless.
You’re not to bright about Tariffs at all are you? I knew you were weak, but this is pathetic…
Yes, I pulled out of thin air, a figure of 145% Tariffs because that’s what we did last time.
Oh wait a minute, we Never Did This Before! A Tariff of 145%, I do not believe has ever existed before. Did You Know? I don’t know anyone that knew Before the figure was told to us by the President.
Everyone Knew Tariffs were coming of course, because Trump TOLD US SO!
You really need to simply Stick With Oil, or do some valid research, pay more attention and go back 5 Years ago and catch up to what’s been said, implemented, talked about and told was going to happen, right up until TODAY!!! Just Listen and Pay Attention and you too will see the information is right in front of you!
Just to help you out, and save you from posting old or wrong info, on Tariffs.
“We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs…”
The joint statement said that the U.S. will reduce levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30%
The breakthrough in the talks also led to China reducing its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%.
So China Talked, and We listened, and now we have a “Pause” for an undetermined time frame. It would seem Negotiations are working now, and we are talking!
Just print to pay the longshoremen to do nothing for a couple of years, just like the teachers unions. “If it saves even one life … we’re all in this together!”
The sad thing is watching the Republican talking heads on the various news shows continue to toe the Trumpian line day after day..
There will only be a small amount of “pain”. The big bucks from the new tariff policy are [surely] going to come flowing in any day now, they say!
This should be Trump’s motto.
This will get more interesting when the big tech cartels really get to updating and bricking their and each other’s phones and such to generate income, and there are no more.
It’s gonna take a good while to sell off all that Chinese tat that is piled high in warehouses all over.
Those old Western Electric phones were like bricks.
Them little girls don’t need no mo ray ray, hi maintenance consumerist role model barbie dolls. It’s time to get back to Raggedy Ann, and a bright future of barefoot, pregnant, chained to a hot stove days.
Mmmm biscuits. Nothing better after doing some impregnating.
It’s become hard to shake the feeling that America has simply lost the capacity to build things in the real world, outside of an app. Opinion | Why Are Housing Costs So High? The Elevator Can Explain Why. – The New York Times (archive.ph)
THAT is a great article! It shows all the hands in the pot that together sharly increase the cost of building (manufacturing) anything in the USA.
Trump is and always has been an Economic and Fianacial illiterate! I will continue to scream this as I have for the past 10 years!
Sure business as usual…how many Japanese drive fords? we now pay more interest on debt than military…continue same policies got us here…remember Obama railing about the 5trillion or thereabouts debt in 08 as a travesty future generations…36 now nobody cares…whistling past graveyard…
No increase in consumer debt.
The ripple effects & broader economic impacts are way scary too – beyond the consumer pain. Trucking, longshoremen, warehousing, tech, pharmaceuticals, small businesses, military ops, retailers, & those businesses down the food chain from all these. Supply chains once seriously interrupted are not re-estabished overnight. April saw significant upsurges in Chinese exports to SE Asia, UAE & Saudi Arabia.
Elect a sociopath, you get sociopathic politics.
When Reagan said in 1980/1 don’t trust government you now know how much the pub,ice has been manipulated, gaslighted and basically conned
Sociopath…lol…new euphemism for nationalist patriot…want a Sociopath look no further than president biden who allowed our country flooded foreign indigent…leftist hysterical hyperbole…
Both sides suck!! The differences between the two are marginal and mostly propaganda (name changes & political spin, and shiz that doesn’t really matter like abortion & LBQZ etc). And when they are both 100% aligned look out…for example Operation Warp Speed.
Henry Kissinger called it the 1st time when he said the only difference between Donald & Hillary was Donald had less baggage. Don’t have to dig very hard to find that Donald has plenty of baggage.
And yes Biden was a disaster…but we haven’t escaped with Donald…same power structure dangling the strings. Remember Donald’s 1st big gig was a CIA front company and it was financed by the Rothschilds.
When will you understand that the current system needs to be shaken up? I, too, don’t like tariffs, but the continuation of accepting massive foreign goods is a big problem. We are the largest consumer in the universe and have the leverage to change the system. As I have mentioned, changes to the corporate tax structure, the government abandoning taxing US companies’ foreign revenue, and revamping regulations will bring back companies.
Trump is simply using a crowbar to get the needed attention from policymakers of all countries. Congress will do absolutely nothing to fix this problem, and talking is talk. Other nations and Congress need a hammer dropped on their heads so that they start paying attention. This is the only way to solve the problem in Trump’s limited time. It’s ugly and extremely messy, but it’s needed.
“We are the largest consumer in the universe and have the leverage to change the system.”
Then you have absolutely nothing to worry about and you shouldn’t be questioning MIsh at all. You should be gleefully happy that the world will transition to the central planning wisdom of Trump in 1353 days or less because he’ll be gone thereafter.
Not sure why so many people here are terrified of Mish’s posts, please explain it to me.
Empty shelves will be here in a few weeks, let’s see how the American people react to that as “the large consumer in the universe.”
Empty shelves of what exactly? If China goes into a physical war with the West, what will happen to all those offshored products and companies? When exactly should we fix this problem? Prior administrations and Congress have made a royal mess and a fortune from America’s consumerism. Markets will adjust; they always do.
Empty shelves of what exactly?
Whatever China makes that ends up on U.S. shelves after the front running inventory runs out. I already did my own front running so I’m good for at least a year.
As to what happens during war – shortages and it impacts everyone, go look at the shortages in the US during WW II, no one escapes misery.
And yes, markets will adjust, prices will go sky high soon enough unless Trump caves which I highly suspect will happen then we’ll be right back to square one.
So what? Much like ww2 America will manufacture respond and thrive…short term pain those feeding at the trough…long term gain self sufficiency…we can live without Chinese poor quality goods..
In the 1940’s we didn’t have 80 million geezers on social security and medicare. Unless you plan on cutting those benefits and forcing seniors back into factory camps, tell me where the labor will come for all those factories. We have unemployment under 5% right now.
The difference between now and 1940 is the demographic death spiral that has no solution. It gets even worse with Trump kicking out immigrants.
But let’s bookmark this post and check back in at the end of Trump’s presidency. I doubt much of anything will change with manufacturing.
You don’t reverse 50 years of engineered decay in a year or two. And that’s pretty much all it will take to wipe the US out of the global power structure without cheap Chinese parts…
“We are the largest consumer in the universe…”
Not exactly. Trade deals are made with trading blocs, not necessarily with countries. And China’s largest export market is ASEAN. NOT the US. And the EU is within a hair of beating the US to the second spot. Also the combined exports to Asian countries, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam is within about 10% or so of what is exported to US.
Anyone older than 50 knows exactly what you are talking about, whether they admit it or not.
“Need” is general related to a person’s view of what THEY consider needful and important. Many others may not agree.
This being said, even with a significant majority of agreement (say 70%), it may not be feasible economically or politically to fix something without destroying the economy underpinned by continuing to doing business as usual.
The universe is a mighty big place!
“Everything is winning. And best of all we will balance our budget with tariffs because Nothing * Anything = Nothing.”
MAGA likes to say they think in 5d and it’s true, it’s 5 dimensions of dumb. Most people live and think in a 3D rational world and limit their dumbness to 3 dimensions but MAGA has extra-sensory-dumbness that extends to two additional dimensions.
The 5th dimension of dumb is where illogical and irrational actions and decisions make sense. It’s where suspending the constitution = good. Where the border is secured but we’re being invaded. Where closed economies are bad but the US closing its economy is good. It’s where 2 dolls are better than 30. Where higher prices makes everyone richer not poor. Where scarcity is surplus.
It’s the 5th dimension of dumb and MAGA lives there.
Here’s a couple-
https://www.nwseaportalliance.com/cargo-operations/cameras-truck-turn-times
https://portal.lbct.com/Operations/TerminalCameras
https://portal.lbct.com/Operations/TerminalCameras
The place looks empty. Are there typically containers here?
Used to be. Take you 6 hours to get a truck in there and get a container out. Tracks packed with rail cars full of containers.
Yes now empty. I’d say the 31% current operating capacity that Mish mentioned in his article is very optimistic. Reality looks closer to single digits.
Congress has spent 50 years building China up…”favored nation” status…unanimous!! Even Dr. No “king of pork” Ron Paul consistently voted in favor of China every single time…even 2 weeks after Tiananmen Square massacre…unanimous.
So why yank the carpet out from under America now???
Look at the live webcams at the ports….empty!!
Links?
This is a strong arm tactic heading into this weekend’s negotiations in Switzerland.
Strong arm tactic by China?
China doesn’t need the us but we do. The outcome is obvious, they are going in fir the kill.
Ha, China is the loser here. Where else will they sell to? Africa? Internal consumption? America is the largest consumer, there is nothing remotely close. China is built on the US’s spending on landfill fodder. The margins are tight. Reshoring companies is the goal, and as ugly as they are, tariffs are simply a tactical ploy.
We must restore specific industries, the Matel tariffs are just noise to gain attention. It’s all aimed to make China as uncomfortable as possible.
Exports to USA are only 2.8% of China’s GDP. It’s not remotely a devastating blow like Dear Leader thinks it is.
Hogwash! US labor is too expensive to be competitive in the world manufacturing ecosystem. The only outlet for things manufactured in the USA will be US consumers and the only reason that the US consumer would buy more expensive US products is because lower cost products have been artificially made more expensive through misused/misguided tariffs and they are in desperate need of the product.
No one else in the world will buy our overly expensive products. Regardless, the volume of USA manufactured products sold in the USA will be reduced due to the high cost necessitated by high labor and buildout costs. Therefore, these factories will not be able to be profitable and will be unlikely to remain in business for long.
There is also the decades long issue of generally poor quality with USA manufactured products.
Now, perhaps these issues can be mitigated if we use robots to work the factories. But that goes against Trump’s desire to bring back blue-collar jobs.
You, Phil, are dumber than a rock.
I remember when Mattel made those Creepy Crawler kits. Good times! Not Soccer Mom Karen approved.
Newsweek indicated it was mainly cancelled orders by importers in April after many had ‘stocked up’ in the couple of months prior hoping to beat the tariffs. Well those that had the capital to stock up.
Yes. Offering to relieve pain is a stronger negotiating position than threatening to cause pain.
High Tariffs Become ‘Real’ For Adafruit – With Their First $36K Bill Just For Import Duties https://yro.slashdot.org/story/25/05/10/0715216/high-tariffs-become-real-for-adafruit—with-their-first-36k-bill-just-for-import-duties
It’s not tariff anymore, its embargo and the US is going to die.
Then what?
Global liberation from the Zog