Huge 2-1 Lead for Biden in Philadelphia Suburbs
Pennsylvania Polls
Polls are from FiveThirtyEight.
Polls marked with an “*” are sponsored. The first I believe by Republicans and the second I believe by Democrats. I ignore both.
Polls of likely voters are of higher quality than registered voters.
That makes the most recent poll chain +9 +9 +5 +7 by ABC/WaPo, Siena College/NYT, TIPP, and Fox News respectively.
Blockbuster Tax Report
The blockbuster New York Times tax disclosure on Trump could be fatal for Trump’s chances.
For discussion, please see Trump Says Taxes are “Fake News”: He Has an Easy Way to Prove It
For an update on Trump’s dwindling chances, please see Election 2020 What States are In Play?
Mish
Now, the result is clear https://jigsawpuzzle.io/
China is the largest retail market starting in 2020. tRump wins again. https://news.yahoo.com/china-overtake-u-world-largest-135614588.html
Data I see suggests the US and then the EU are the biggest consumer markets.
China comes in third. Chinese GDP also trails third.
Administrative aside: it is way more annoying to post here now as if I close the tab or browser I always need to get a new code first.
I think it is closer than many of the polls suggest, as much as I do hope for a Biden blowout
Tonight is the night.
I still expect the debate to be cancelled at the last minute.
Joe Biden drinking game:
Take one shot/beer for everytime Joe Biden says “Come on Man” to Chris Wallace (if he asks tough questions from Biden which is unlikely) or Trump.
Extra shot/beer if Biden repeats the recent lie he said claiming that he had gone to a traditionally black college that the college quickly corrected and made sure everyone knows Joe Biden is a LIAR:
Extra shot/beer also for if Joe Biden mentions Corn Pop or talks about how black kids used to jump up and down on his lap and rub his legs while he was a swimming pool supervisor in his twenties in a black neighborhood.
Extra shot/beer if Joe Biden publicly says in the debate what he has promised already namely Amnesty and US citizenship for ALL current ILLEGAL immigrants in USA.
Extra shot/beer if Joe Biden is forced to answer questions how Moscow Mayor’s billionaire wife who belongs to Putin’s elite sent Hunter Biden a 3.5 million dollar wire while Joe Biden was VP or how Joe Biden got that Ukraine prosecutor fired that was investigating Burisma corruption by threatening to not give Ukraine the billion unless the prosecutor is fired while Joe Biden was VP and Hunter Biden sat in Burisma board getting 80k+ a month aka 1+ million a year or how Hunter Biden got 1500 million investment from Bank of China after flying with Joe Biden on Air Force 2 to China while Joe Biden was VP and how Joe Biden went to see the guy responsible for giving the 1500 million and shook hands and talked with him only because some child’s drawing.
Do not drink to excess.
Can anyone tell me how their lives would be different if Biden wins?
Joe Biden has promised amnesty and US citizenship to all current ILLEGAL immigrants in USA.
There are 29.5 million ILLEGAL immigrants in USA according to MIT-Yale study from 2018 so Biden’s amnesty would create 29.5 million new Democrat voters ensuring Democrats will win presidency, house and Senate for the next 100 years after that amnesty even if they go fully to AOC/Bernie/Socialism which Biden is already partially doing by having AOC/Bernie/socialists write large parts of Biden’s program.
This will also create 29.5 million potential new users for SNAP-EBT (foodstamps), Section-8 housing, federal tax credits, state welfare systems, Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security etc. either resulting in CUTS in all of those programs or more debt mountains in Federal and State level.
The Biden amnesty will also create the largest rush of ILLEGAL immigrants in US history to come to USA to get into that amnesty by lying they have been in USA years/months already depending on what the cut-off date for Biden’s amnesty is so millions and millions more ILLEGAL immigrants will come to get that amnesty and tens of millions ILLEGAL immigrants will come to wait for the next amnesty because Biden has promised to cripple ICE and immigration enforcement and many Democrats want to abolish ICE and this flood of new ILLEGAL immigrants will even further lower/stagnate wages for working class black, white,asian and latino Americans further than the current illegal immigrants have lowered/stagnated wages for tens of years and the new illegal immigrants will steal tens of millions of new jobs in addition to the tens of millions of jobs the current illegal immigrants have already stolen.
Finally, a one party state
Mainly worried about the warmonger faction in the driver’s seat again and things spinning out of control …
Don’t think it will be positive for the USA to go to a one-party regime.
Don’t get all these people mentioning Biden instead of Harris…
Webej, I am seeing your latest comment twice:
One seems to be deleted and has image of trash can over it and the comment is in a grey shade but still visible and the exact same comment made at the exact same time is visible normally below it as I write this.
There is some serious glitch in Mish’s comment system.
I won’t have to worry about a guy who wants to be king running the country, or about a justice dept. that fronts for his every malfeasance. Biden isn’t going to be a great President. He is heading up a political party that is rotten at the core. Still, he represents less of an existential threat than Trump.
What CIA/FBI/DOJ did to Trump under Obama and what they continued to do even while Trump had become president through the actions of corrupt Obama loyalists is a disgrace and third-world country level attack against a political adversary.
Barr is a really weak AG and has not corrected the wrongdoing that happened at the direction of Obama/Biden starting from that January 5th meeting where Biden wanted to use the Logan act against Flynn and how the FBI entrapped Lt. Gen. Flynn after that and totally corruptly prosecuted him during Mueller/Weissmann and made him plea based on threats against his son and withheld exculpatory evidence in a massive scale by FBI.
All the FBI personnel involved in LYING 4 times to the FISA court to get a warrant to listen into Carter Page and through Carter Page to all of the Trump campaign through NSA’s 2 hop rule (Carter Page calls somebody who calls Trump=all 3 are under surveillance) should be in prison doing 20 year prison sentences.
The totally bogus Steele Dossier that Hillary Clinton ordered and paid for together with DNC should never have been enough to get approval from FISA court for surveillance of Trump campaign and the fact FBI lied to FISA court repeatedly that the subsource was “truthful” while doing renewals through the FISA court when the subsource had already told FBI that everything he told Steele was bunch of BS he and his drinking buddies made up and yet FBI claimed everything was valid and subsource was “truthful” should have led to a total overhaul of FBI and firing and prosecuting EVERYONE involved in that mess.
In reality the subsource was a russian living in USA long term and working for a DEMOCRAT thinktank and had been earlier investigated for likely being a Russian spy.
It is possible he was/is a spy and the lies he told Steele were part of the Putin plan to stop Trump from winning or cripple Trump if he won because before CIA’s Brennan intervened in CIA intelligence agents work they thought Putin was trying to help Hillary but Brennan switched those agents out and had his own loyalists write that Putin wanted to help Trump.
Remember that Hillary Clinton had earlier posed with the “reset” button and wanted to please Putin and Hillary Clinton had gotten hundreds of millions in BRIBES as donations to Clinton Foundation after Hillary and State Department OK’d Russian government owned Russian company buying Uranium One and with it 20% of American uranium and the BRIBES were paid by the Russian company paying a few hundred million dollars larger payment for Uranium One and then the sellers paid this money aka hundreds of millions into Clinton Foundation as donations.
This corruption was probably why FBI never looked at the Clinton email server and instead let her pick which emails to give to FBI while deleting 33,000+ emails never looked at by FBI.
Later it was found out that since Clinton’s top assistant Huma Abedin had used Anthony Wiener’s laptop to check for Hillary’s emails and her own email’s from the Clinton email server it had synced up with it and downloaded all the emails and continued downloading all the emails in the background even when Wiener was sending dick pics to underage children so the FBI got ALL of the emails when confiscating Wiener’s laptop when investigating Wiener’s behavior but still FBI refused to look at the emails and Comey had some loyalists do a word search and claim there was nothing there when he briefly reopened the Clinton email investigation.
Trump should have fired Wray over a year ago because nothing was happening but Wray still heads the FBI and nothing happens other than Wray minimizing Antifa rioting and even the existence of Antifa when even CNN has repeatedly shown rioters marching and rioting and proudly waiving Antifa flags.
Barack Obama also REFUSED to help Ukraine by STOPPING American companies from selling arms and missiles to Ukraine and when Trump came to power he reversed this Obama policy to leave Ukraine defenseless against Russia and Trump allowed arms sales and missile sales to Ukraine.
AG Barr is a weakling who does NOT want to catch the criminals who were running FBI under Obama and even during Trump’s first years and thereby AG Barr makes it even more evident that there is no rule of law in USA if you are a Democrat or belong to the Democrat elite.
The economics of immigration are going to become more clear to you in the coming years, Facts on Joe, as America’s birth rate continues to decline. For those systems like Social Security to work so you get yours in retirement, you are going to have to depend on immigrants coming to America and pay taxes. America needs new tax mules. Amnesty is coming under Trump if he gets elected because of this reality or whoever might replace him.
The economics of immigration:
Immigration of people that use more government/state paid services and benefits than they pay in taxes WORSEN the US economy and create need for Federal government to get more and more debt.
ILLEGAL immigration and low wage legal immigration are DESTRUCTIVE to the economy as a whole although companies getting lower wage workers benefit short term from those lower wage workers and the lowering/stagnation of working class wages that this creates for existing American workers.
Without the debt bubble the current level of ILLEGAL immigrants and low wage legal immigrants that USA has allowed/taken already the consumer demand would have crashed already and crashed with it the companies profits.
Biden will allow subject matter experts to do the hard work. Trump doesn’t allow that, not in the OO, not in the Trump Boardroom. This is why when he gets involved in the day to day it’s a financial disaster for everyone. My life will be different having a capable delegator at the helm rather than a misguided know-it-all.
Trump has followed Fauci too much and Fauci wants to keep USA in a lockdowns until after winter and Joe Biden has said that if an “expert” recommends shutting down USA totally he will do it.
Biden+Fauci= total lockdown/shutdown for a year or more.
The Constitution gives POTUS no authority to lock down the entire country just like it doesn’t give POTUS the national emergency powers Trump has imagined to take over the power of the purse to build his pet project.
The truth is if Trump wins, you are a tax slave to $27 trillion in debt. If Biden wins, you are a tax slave to $27 trillion.
Sad thing is your life isn’t better either way as government continues to spend and put the weight on the shoulders of taxpayers like yourself.
I will no longer be embarrassed to be an American.
I have given up adding comments because mine have also been deleted or removed…. Testing to see if this one gets though.
High quality poll from the leaders in fake news? Get a grip Mish and quit embarrassing yourself.
Mish, did you remove a long and detailed comment I just wrote OR did your comment system automatically remove it?
If your comment system removed it could you please return the comment so it shows and if you removed it I would appreciate knowing what was wrong in the comment so I can avoid whatever mistake you think I did in the future.
The comment was very detailed and had many sources including about studies on D-vitamin and HCQ and also included references to birthright citizenship legal background or rather the lack of it and to Biden’s policy promises regarding amnesty and what that would cause and ideas on how Trump could still win Pennsylvania.
So… a rambling screed citing loony news sources. I think the world will be fine without that.
How do you know the news sources are looney?
The Vit D correlation is accepted by everybody, and scientific papers have related this to some gene (on the X-chromozone) that also seems related to the fact that men are more likely to have serious disease progression than do women.
I cited Bloomberg, MIT, Yale, Supreme Court decision, Henry Ford Hospitals, US agreement with China in 1868 and news about studies on D-vtamin deficiency’s role in people more likely to get Covid and die in much grater numbers if they got Covid and had a D-citamin deficiency and stats on how 99.9% of donations from CDC staff go to Democrats and a site listing international studies about HCQ etc.
The covid study in Spain regarding Vitamin D was poor. 96% effectiveness is not a credible result, and the populations in the study were small and imbalanced which raisers additional questions about the result.
Furthermore, there’s a question of whether the definitions of Vitamin D deficiency were boosted by Dr. Holick in order to sell lab tests and supplements.
I cited Boston University study and University of Chicago study:
University of Chicago found that people with D-vitamin deficiency are 60% times more likely to catch Covid:
Boston University found that people with D-vitamin deficiency are 52% times more likely to die from Covid if they have caught Covid:
Based on these studies the policies Dr. Fauci championed of having lockdowns and keeping people inside their homes have KILLED people.
The CDC should wakeup from their incompetence and immediately recommend that every American used a D-vitamin supplement of one pill a day.
The catch is that almost all D-vitamin consumed in USA is made in China and this is true even when the tablets are made in USA.
The only debate on Vitamin D seems to be how much is enough, and how much is too much. It has long been known that Vitamin D boosts the immune system, so there is nothing surprising here. The only thing surprising was when, early in the pandemic, any video mentioning the known value of taking Vitamin D was removed by YouTube. Most, or all, have since been restored, but the censorship was most odd. Taking 1-3,000 ICU a day should be safe, and may well already be included in your one-a-day, if you are taking one. If you want to take more than 5,000 ICU, you should discuss it with your doctor.
As for HCQ, I saw that a study was finally launched in southern California testing whether early intervention (as soon as a patient tests positive, and before they go to the hospital) with HCQ+zinc would beneficial. It’s amazing that it took 7 months for a real test of HCQ to be launched, but it seems we will finally learn if HCQ has any treatment value.
As many know, early on after a person catches Covid, the virus is focused on replication, and it multiplies rapidly. It seems obvious that a drug designed to stop viral replication (i.e. antiviral) will be most effective if given during the replication phase. It doesn’t matter if it is remdesiver, favapiravir, ivermectin, HCQ, or something else. Later in the infection, the person either recovers, or becomes very ill, and requires hospitalization. By the time a person is in the hospital, the virus has already replicated and made millions and millions of copies.
Applying an anti-viral to a patient in the hospital is not likely to be very effective, regardless of brand, because the virus has already replicated. That, indeed, is exactly what we have seen with all the antivirals that have been tested on hospitalized patients. None of them have proven effective at reducing mortality, if given to hospitalized patients, which isn’t surprising. Instead, treatment with antioxidants, antiinflammatories, and anticoagulants has been far more useful on hospitalized patients.
But….what if we gave the antiviral during the replication stage, when the patient is still healthy enough to be home? Will it help? It’s strange that we haven’t tested that yet, but now it seems we finally are.
Pa is going for Biden, all eyes are now on Florida a state that is do or die for Trump
too late
I believe PA seals the fate.
Ohio would be a landslide
There is no realistic way for Trump to win without Ohio, Florida, and Texas is what you wrote just the other day. He’s ahead in all three but not by much . So what’s changed?
I clicked around on 270towin and Trump can get 275 electoral college votes if he wins Minnesota, Arizona and Nevada and loses Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but keeps the rest of the states he won in 2016.
If Trump loses Nevada and wins New Hampshire that he lost last time by around 1% Trump wins with 273 electoral college votes.
Also I consider the likehood that all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would switch to Biden low.
For example if Trump got Michigan then Trump could lose Nevada, Arizona and New Hampshire and still win by 274 electoral college votes if he switched Minnesota which I consider likely.
I highly doubt MN is going to go to Trump. Outstate might be a bit pink, but I doubt that would be enough.
RCP and 538 have Biden ahead in Ohio/Florida and Trump ahead in Texas
Trump ahead in Texas. That we are even discussing Texas is an open for Donald
I occasionally get logged out but went days the last time before it happened. What is the experience here with needing a new code?
I’m regularly logged out and lose my text after typing for more than a few minutes. I think it’s due to self refresh.
To win, Trump needs to win all of the following states where he is behind: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, AND Pennsylvannia. If he loses any of these he much make it up with surprise wins in Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, or Wisconsin, and he is trailing in all of those as well. He also needs to hold Texas, Iowa, and Georgia, where is barely ahead.
My current guess is that it ends up 377 Biden, 161 Trump.