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The lead image is from Which Democratic Candidates Will Be in the Second February Debate?

I edited out Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang.

Unless the DNC changes the rules, neither will qualify even if Steyer does very well in South Carolina.

Qualifiers for the Nevada Debate

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The above qualifiers from 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Debates

Five Qualified, Bloomberg Close

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Four Poll Threshold

Bloomberg has topped 10% in ten different National Polls but only three of them are in the DNC's list of approved pollsters.

Bloomberg's Qualifiers

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One Week Left

The qualification period ends February 18, 2020.

That gives Bloomberg one more week in which to qualify.

Will Bloomberg Qualify?

I suggest yes.

Bloomberg has topped 10% in five out of the last six poll even though his running total is only three.

My only caveat is whether he gets enough chances. NBC News, ABC News, and CNN represent his best chances.

YouGov would be a good chance but only CBS News/YouGov qualifies, not Economist/YouGov.


Another More National Path

USA Today/Suffolk is yet another chance but they have not conducted any national polls yet.

Might Bloomberg himself pay for an authorized poll by USA Today or some other approved poolster?

Polls are expensive and someone has to pay for them.

I am not suggesting rigging and indeed I am certain these pollsters wouldn't.

Rather, Bloomberg, assuming he wants to be on stage, just might wish to fund extra chances.

Unless that is against the rules somewhere, why not?

Alternatively, if the the boards of NBC News, ABC News, or CNN want Bloomberg on the stage, they will do these polls anyway.

Nevada Polls

USA Today/Suffolk and Fox News have the two most recent recent Nevada Polls and they are very stale. The latest poll is January 11.

It is possible for Bloomberg to top 12% in two Nevada Polls and both the above pollsters are qualified.

Add it all up, and Bloomberg has a very good chance of making the Nevada debates, possibly two different ways (Nevada polls and national polls).

Expect Howls

If Bloomberg qualifies and accepts an invite, expect howls.

The DNC modified the rules for the Nevada Debate (the last debate before Super Tuesday), and that rule changed opened the door for Bloomberg but not Steyer, no matter how well Steyer might do in South Carolina.

Apparently, there is only room for one self-funded billionaire.

Rigged System

Meanwhile, ​Bernie Supporters Scream "Rigged System" in response to the rule change.

The more candidates on the stage, the higher the likelihood of a contested convention, that is, no majority winner heading into the national convention.

I have the odds at roughly 25%. For discussion, please see Bloomberg Soars to 15% in Latest Quinnipiac Poll.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock