It would take a miracle for Democrats to win the House
Image courtesy of Wall Street Journal.
House Chart Notes
- Gains and losses appear to be final numbers not yet established.
- I added the red squares. Any race with a difference under 1 percentage point in in red squares.
- The Maryland square is particularly at risk for Democrats, tied at 50-50.
- Most of the races appear to be callable. I expect most of those soon will be.
- Four seats in Arizona, seven seats in California, and another in Maryland will decide the makeup.
I factored all of that in and came up with something on the order of 221-214 for Republicans.
The current House makeup is 220-212 with 3 vacancies.
Thus, I am now calling for a Republican pickup of 1. It might easily be -1, 0, 2, or 3. And that’s probably the best range to think about. My forecast was for Republicans to lose 3.
This shows just how much the House is gerrymandered by both parties (but more so Democrats) when you only gain 1 or 2 seats in an electoral college blowout.
I factored gerrymandering into my forecast.
Harris Finally Speaking
By the Way, it’s 4:25 PM and Kamala Harris is just now finally speaking.
“While I concede the election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign.”
Harris mentioned guns, abortion, equal justice, and fundamental rights.
“We will wage the battle in the courts. …This is a time to mobilize for the sake of freedom. … There’s a historical adage, only when it is dark enough can we see the stars.”
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“We will wage the battle in the courts.”
Nothing says terminal decline America in the #Dumbage like ever more resources wasted on pathetic but arbitrarily privileged illiterate ambulance chasing nothings. With all of it stolen from the three guys still out there bothering to try doing something at all value adding.
If the idiot bimbo had even a fractional clue about anything at all; she’d focus on what is required for American companies to outcompete lowest price Alibaba sellers across the board. But of course, she doesn’t. Hence don’t. Instead mindlessly continuing the same old yammering on about ever more of the same old transfer of ever greater shares of competent people’s potential value-add, to abject useless vermin dumb enough to believe playing LA Law with other people’s time and resources; in trashy kangaroo courts; in this now nothing-but-beyond-the-pale full stop waste of a dystopia.
And it’s not as if Trump is any better. Nor even different.
How does one negate gerrymandering? Is it in the Democrats’ ‘For the People Act’ or not? Is there a better idea?
Any universally applicable function of nothing but geography and demography would do.
In a brighter era, deriving one which minimized total geographic distance from voters to their corresponding rep, subject to acceptable constraints on how much population difference per rep was acceptable, would make sense as a requirement for obtaining a high school diploma. As of now, 3rd year college math students could probably still be expected to do figure it out.
Chipmunks, dishrags, Trump and Harris otoh….. Fat chance. It ain’t the #DumbAge for nothing.
Trump = Hope
Harris = Despair
Simple, youngster.
Trump was supposed to enjoy this in 2017. Instead, the slimy Republicans sat on their hands waiting for Trump to get indicted, impeached, or resign. Meanwhile, all chance to accomplish something was lost. They’d better not make the same treacherous judgment error again.
With hindsight, it might be better to win now, than than in 2017, because at least he can blame Biden for any bad things that happen to the country. If he had won back to back, then Trump would have to take the blame for all the things beyond his control.
Hopefully, the neocons and RINOs are not able to sabotage the will of the voters this time around.
“Hopefully, the neocons and RINOs are not able to sabotage the will of the voters this time around.”
Well…. That’s highly unlikely, considering the voters are 1)either RINOs and Neocons, or 2)sufficiently indoctrinated by RINOs and neocons for any difference not to matter at all.
Democrats have overwhelming control of the federal bureaucracy where they can drag their feet, leak documents and thwart policy. Just look at how MD, DC and VA vote. And of course, the media.
Vivek Ramaswamy proposed a legal way to remove government employees. Even, odd, or divisible. by three SSAN and you are out. It’s arbitrary, capricious, fair, balanced, and efficient.
Alternatively, sack everyone and make everyone re-apply for their jobs.
Saboteurs are a bigly threat; hopefully dismantling them and entire government departments is in the cards.
It’s time to end the “black university” moniker. We are either DEI or we are not. Howard wasn’t even started as a black university. It was all inclusive.
This nonsense must end. You can’t have it both ways of wanting inclusion while at the same time reverting to “history” and continuing the history of the non inclusion. Everyone knows this is highly illogical and counter productive.
Affirmative Action is racist, sexist, and illegal according to the Supreme Court. What we need is an attorney general who enforces the Constitution.
MLK Jr did not die for DEI.
Quite the repudiation of California style politics. This was more than a referendum on Trump: people don’t like the direction big pharma, big tech, and the military industrial complex aligned with the Democrats were taking us. Not to mention the undemocratic processes the Democrats engaged in to pick their candidate.
These same villains are already trying to glom onto the new administration. Grab your popcorn!
Sorry, but F unity. Finish them off while they’re vulnerable. They tried to the do same to us.
The new attorney general is likely to be a victim of lawfare with an axe to grind.
Yes, and do it quckly, it’s the most important prerequisite for getting anything done.
I’m no fan of CNN (probably watch less than 10 minutes a year and then only for weather coverage in hurricanes), but this is a fascinating article about his campaign with a lot of things I didn’t know.
Explains how much they targeted minority men, young voters and especially people who traditionally don’t vote. The MAGA component of 2016 and 2020 is not what got him elected this time around. He remade everything from the ground up.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/how-donald-trump-won/index.html
As Meltdown Carville once said: “It’s the economy, stupid”, and young people of all types want hope of financial freedom. Nothing about the Democrats preached entrepreneurship like Trump, the Dems were all about tax and greivance.
Perhaps someone here has noticed that Trump and those on his team were mostly all former moderate Democrats with a strong dash of pragmatism mixed in. The old hard-core Republicans are either dead or have become political ghosts. Reagan started out Democrat too and became disgusted with them and changed sides.
Yes people like to forget that Trump was a Democrat until 2012. Hitlers love to change parties
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fi0t260s1aqq81.jpg&rdt=60129
D, R – what difference does it make? Enjoy the party!
Stephen Cheung was never a Democrat.
You need a few outers.
I didn’t notice. I try not to pay much attention to politics. Just the bare minimum in order to find the opportunities to profit.
So, are you saying we actually have a Democrat government? That would be hilarious!
You should notice these things as they will affect your portfolio. We do not have a Democrat government. We have a type of government that does not fit into what is our usual definition of right and left.
The King is dead.
Long live the King!
That is the best way to describe it.
PapaDave doesn’t care, he’s a troll.
The fake charges against Trump will likely be dropped, but Letitia James of NY is threatening to continue to go after Trump. To many, this is an injustice and clear misuse of her entrusted public position. When and where are the consequences?
Peanuts alive! Seen crashing Harris’ speech.
Trump was given a mandate by the people and what do democrats do? Dream up schemes to try to subvert the will of the people. And they called Trump a threat to democracy? LOL.
Now there will be no excuse for not getting things done.
Correct. Looking forward to the Golden Age!
Technically I believe you need 60 votes in the Senate to have ‘complete control’ to rubber stamp anything you want.
Trump’s 1st 2 years in office also coincided with Republican control of the house and senate and there was still so much infighting that not a lot got done. Maybe some of those are weeded out now but I am not counting on it.
With the bipartisan team he has assembled, that will not be the case this time around.
Trump owns the party now and it is tightly run. Nothing like in 2016.
A team should be set up to examine everything in the Federal Register. With the recent overturn of Chevron Deference, every agency rule should be thoroughly perused and those found to be without legislative justification should be nullified. Such an effort could liberate business to great national advantage.
Step 1. Dump Speaker Johnson.
That’s all the country needs now – a Republican House leadership struggle to derail any sort of needed legislation to satisfy some cranks. As if the most important thing for the Republicans to do is to have a handful of nutters force the party to take their eyes off the ball of pushing through a conservative agenda. All this predicated on their actually being a conservative agenda within the Republican Party.
Nice! Complete control. Nothing to stop them from executing all their plans and solutions to all the nations issues. Project 2025 here we come. I look forward to seeing the results. I for one, would love to see Trump cut my taxes to zero. And let’s get Elon in there to cut his 2 trillion in spending and use tariffs to eliminate the deficit and debt as promised.
Repeal the IRA. No more subsidies for EVs and renewables. Ban offshore wind as promised.
Tariffs up the wazoo on every country we trade with. Eliminate all other taxes.
Repeal Obamacare. Eliminate Medicare and Medicaid. Let’s go 100% private coverage.
Eliminate FEMA. Eliminate federal flood insurance. Eliminate all public education. 100% private everything please. Eliminate as many government jobs as possible. We will need those workers elsewhere.
Round up and deport every illegal alien you can find. And end all legal immigration. Let Americans get all the jobs. Eliminate mandatory retirement and Social Security. We will need all those retirees to fill the jobs they left that are being done by all the illegals.
Build a wall on all borders. Put those retirees and government workers to work doing something productive.
Make those phone calls Donald. End the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel as promised.
Bring us all into the Golden Age!
MAGA.
And I look forward to an end to all the complaining and whining here by the cult morons once Donald brings them to the promised land.
Meanwhile, I will continue to ignore as much of the politics as possible, and continue doing what I always do. Focus on my health, wealth, family and friends. Because that will always be more impactful to me than all the above.
Anyone else make a bundle in the markets today?
Angry unhinged. Typical. No self reflection. You are why you lost
Lol! Not angry at all. You make those assumptions because you are an ass.
As I repeatedly said, I don’t care who wins. My candidate has never lost because I have never voted. Unlike you, I am not a political cult moron.
And I will profit either way. I profited during Trump’s previous term and will do so again.
I look forward to the next four years and Trump’s MAGA. Because I know I will be better off at the end of those four years. Just like I always have, no matter the political situation.
And you can stop complaining now because your guy will lead you by the nose to the promised land.
Win-win!
“…lead you by the nose to the promised land.”.
Yeah, you don’t sound angry. LOL!
Correct. Not angry. Looking forward to the next four years. Looking forward to less whining and complaining here as Trump leads us all to the Golden Age. Looking forward to your positive posts as it all comes together.
Though, as always, I will remain focused on my health, wealth, family and friends.
I had a good day today in the markets. And I will even thank Donald Trump for the bump.
How did you do in markets today?
Everything is going swimmingly 🙂
That’s better. No more complaining. I like it!
Better than you, as usual, lol.
Name calling? Just enjoy the next four years. God loves us.
I’m already enjoying it. Made a lot of money today.
One smart women once said – if you have to say you are a lady, you are not. If you feel you have to repeat it non stop you definitely don’t know what you are talking about!
I made even more than you again today.
Excellent. Keep up the good work. It’s going to be a great four years. Let’s all enjoy the ride!
They elected Hitler. Go figure.
Lol, I made 10 times what you made, in my sleep. Win-win!
For someone that claims to not spend much time thinking about this stuff, you sure spend a lot of time commenting about it. Just sayin’.
Multiple alias Realist (papascam, mpofshit, Makra, Imgreen, Jeffgreen, etc) sticht
-when Republicans last in office, complaining worst government ever
-when Democrats in office, dont complain, defends democrat policies incessantly
-Jan 2025-2028 Realists incessantly again begins complaining Republicans worst government ever.
Remember Realist when you were laughing at me for my gold & silver holdings in 2019. Remember when you were telling me to sell in the last year when gold dropped to what was it $2000.
How is anyone doing who bought energy stocks when you again were non stop repeating oil not going below $100
Lets not even get started on your green stocks, Ballard power, etc?
Wow. That’s a lot of aliases. Particularly because of the etc!
You think that I am all those people, EH? I remember Realist. He was great. I made a lot of money because of him.
You are one Crazy Canucklehead.
Have you really been holding in your back pocket for FIVE YEARS the investment advice/admonishment of some random person on a blogsite so you could chastise them later (if not the wrong person)?
OMG this is what’s wrong with America right now. I’m going to enjoy a movie night with my family. I truly hope you have an enjoyable evening (away from the Internet)
Though there are a lot of crazy Americans, I believe Roadrunner is Canadian. For some reason he believes that I am about a dozen different people here. Not sure why. Every now and then he shows up to rag on me. And I assume on the other folks here who he thinks are all the same person.
He tells me that I said something (which I know I didn’t say) but it was probably something that one of the other folks said. Half the time I don’t have a clue what he is talking about.
He is correct about one thing. I DID mention a list of 20 green stocks around 3 years ago that I was going to buy a handful of shares in, and follow. And I emphasized that I was taking tiny positions because I knew so little about the companies. They all did terrible except for one stock. And I mentioned that too later on. Good thing I only bought a few shares of each one. My guess is that he bought a lot of these stocks (not just a few shares) and wants to blame me for mentioning them.
Or it could be something else. Who knows when dealing with crazy.
You must be new here- that wasn’t the first time, tho it has been less frequent in recent months.
Enjoy the movie!
“For someone that claims to not spend much time thinking about this stuff, you sure spend a lot of time commenting about it. Just sayin’.”
Get ready, Realist will be now be daily trashing the Republicans. Odd for someone who tells others to not complain when Democrats in office or claims as you say to not spend much time thinking about this stuff.
Realist (mpofshit, papascam, jeffgreen, imgreen, makra, etc) gonna be having a mental breakdown the next 4 years.
Correct. I only have time to read about one in three of Mish’s posts. And I only have time to comment here a couple of times each week. Today is your lucky day.
Realist, I just shit myself, ROTFLMAO, I just checked your green stocks you were recommending to buy some years back. Fuel Cell, Ballard Power, Plug Power. Please name the recent 20 green stocks you said you bought a few months back. I need some more laughs.
Meanwhile remember you were telling me I was an idiot for buying gold and silver. Yeah, Im taking a real shit kicking.
Any more thoughts on gold & silver?
I guess you don’t come here often. I did mention I was taking a small position in about 20 green stocks a few years ago, just so I could follow them for a while. I also mentioned over a year ago that they all did terrible (with one exception) and I dumped them all. Maybe you missed that.
My main focus remains on oil and gas stocks. Canadian oil and gas mostly. You have some great companies up there in Canada. I have repeatedly recommended many of them here in the last few years.
Oh ya? which of my companies did you recommend?
All of them.
I have my butler do my commenting, whilst I’m busying making in a day what you make in a year, by the pool in one of my villas, lol.
I don’t think we need a wall on the northern border. For now, we can probably handle that with snipers.
Good idea.
I’m looking forward to working at McDonalds 🙂
And yes, they really do need to stop their whining now – they got their Donald.
Yes! No more whining! Let us all enjoy the next four years of MAGA. It will be fun to watch Donald’s handling of the issues facing America. It will certainly be the best four years in our entire history. Just like his previous four years.
Illegally create 10 million people in this country (mostly illegal men), who will compete for lower middle class jobs (and drive up rents), and willl show you a fed up male citizentry that will vote for Trump.
So true! Massive illegals flood into the US, needs housing, food, medical care, schooling, all given phones and money, live in nice hotels. All creating price inflation where? Mostly (D) urban cities while ignoring the US citizens in need.
…and they wonder why the urban vote didn’t come out for (D)s
So what’s the best deportation method? Trains, planes or buses? Whichever, Mr John Q. Taxpayer has it covered.
Harris: “We will wage the battle in the courts.”
That doesn’t sound like democracy. Democrats show they hate democracy.
Fatma James NY leads the charge. Senator Adam Schiff is back !
Is the Dow rising bc rates cut are coming.
Yes, and the long-end is blowing out for the same reason.
Tomorrow interest rates decision. What if the Fed don’t cut ?
Slam dunk 25 bps cut.
Is 1M SPY giggling ?
Kamala is seeing stars from being clubbed like a baby seal.
Trifecta? At first I thought you meant Trump winning three times in a row.
Three Bigly Macs in a row.
Slightly OT, but:
Biden could make one very grand gesture here, and step aside under 25th Amendment protocols.
This would make Harris the First Female President (etc etc) for a couple of months, cementing a positive tone for Biden’s tenure in mainstream histories.
Not coincidentally, this would free Harris from VP duty … she can avoid having to certify Trump’s election. And maybe pull a few last minute Executive Orders … enjoy that taste of power and come back in ‘28 for a second run with a little more on her resume.
She could then potentially give Biden a presidential Pardon, an asset which he might find valuable…
Also, we could get that whole “first woman president” crap out of our system – although I personally would count Obama for that. If Biden resigns, he should do it unannounced around January 19th, so she doesn’t get any bright ideas about pulling some seriously left-wing bullshit.
If Biden did that then he wouldn’t get his revenge on her. “Nobody fucks with a Biden” I remember hearing him saying.
Is that what his daughter put in heir diary?
I think that is a very good suggestion
Joe’s massive ego would never allow that. He will ride it out to the bitter end.
He might not even be cognizant to resign at this point.
He had the opportunity to do so in August, allowing Kamala to run as the incumbent President. Of course, that might not have necessarily helped her, if she made amateur blunders as the nation’s leader & while campaigning. An interesting “What If” that the Democrats are probably wringing hands over right now…
Terrible idea.
The first woman who truly wins the election should be a historic first and should not be robbed of being that first by someone getting a couple months feel good time as president.
The democrats have not learned a single thing since Trump’s first term. I fear, and they have shown, there will never be a middle ground with them.
No middle ground with the other side either.
So just 1 more unearned job post for Kamala?
She didn’t earn her VP pick as that was given to her because Biden refused to pick anyone other than a Black woman as his running mate.
She didn’t earn her parties nomination for President because when Biden stepped down the people controlling the party behind the scenes didn’t give anyone else a chance to run against her.
Now you want her to get 30-60 days as President which would also be unearned since she didn’t win the election nor is there a compelling reason for Biden to step down now (if he was going to do so, he should have done that when he quit the race).
Let’s stop with the participation trophies because this isn’t a ‘make a wish’ foundation, it’s the presidency.
Besides, none of that factors in what might happen in those 2 months around the rest of the world (Middle East/Ukraine/China-Taiwan) once she was installed as a lame duck. It would be an open invitation to run wild knowing she has no stomach (or ability) to do anything about it.
I hear you and won’t disagree, except to say that Biden is lamer than Harris at this point, and anyone contemplating anything now is thinking about Trump – not Biden nor Harris.
Jill would never allow it. She would get Secret Service protection for life.
So Tampon Tim would have to certify? Lol
Depends who Biden hates the most, I guess… Kamala, or her/their minders.
Nice. Thx for the summary. Better than any media outlet. Hoping you are correct.
Still, there are some strange results. MI. WI. AZ. Where the Dem Senate candidate picked up 100s of 1000s of votes overnight, and/or have more total votes than Trump. No sensible explanation for that.
Yeah people do split tickets. But not on that order of magnitude.
Split tickets as a % of votes is quite low. But in those 3 states it’s nearly 50%. Totally implausible, given the uniformity of the outcomes across the country.
There is an explanation: they’re cheating. I know you know that.
Josh S. and Gretchen’s Coven of Witches were not going to put themselves out this time for Kamala when they have their own designs for 2028. Yeah, they’ll cheat down ballot,
DDHQ shows 222 … Kammy says she is not going to stop fighting. For the constitution etc. Which is weird because the Brandon / Kammy Admin censored Americans (1st), repeatedly called for gun control which contravened Heller -> Bruen (2nd), hid Biden’s cognitive decline (25th), worked, supported and guided lawfare Star Chambers to the point of absurdity against both Trump and J 6th protestors (6th) etc. ad nauseum. Dustbin of history for the cackling hag.
The court battle begins with impeaching many judges.
inshallah
A glorious result. And 2 supreme court seats as well as now they can retire.
And the two lesbians aren’t exactly the picture of health.
That wise Latina is an obese, blind, 70 year old Type 1 diabetic with a 68 year life expectancy. Sotomayor has a heart attack in her near future.
I expect Alito & Thomas to resign before the next election. Looking at a conservative Asian and conservative Hispanic to replace them.