Eight Reasons This is Not 2016
- There are far fewer undecided voters this year. For discussion please see Who are the Undecided Voters and How Many Remain?
- There is no last minute Comey Bombshell (sorry Trump fans, the Hunter Biden Story is Irrelevant)
- Hillary was 2-3% ahead nationally in 2016 but Biden is 8-12% ahead.
- There are more state polls this time.
- In 2016, the state pollsters underweighted uneducated white voters.
- It’s likely that pollsters overcompensated for the education gap this time thereby underestimating Biden’s lead.
- Hillary was more despised than Trump. Now, Trump is far more despised than Biden.
- The massive amount of early voting is Democratic. These are not “likely voters”. They are 100% guaranteed voters. The pollsters are underweighting “guaranteed” voters as “likely” voters. In 2016 a big chunk of these voters sat out the election.
Bonus Reasons
Those who expect a “Bonus Reason” I just happen to have one: Covid Records Shattered In The US and Europe
What About Women and Those Over 65?
Expecting an election replay of 2016 is more than a bit silly.
Mish
On this particular subject of the election, too many people are expecting lightning to strike the same random spot twice.
More tweeterings…
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
Republican elites preaching to the masses:
“Personal responsibility, individual accountability, moral hazard, you get more of certain behavior if you reward it, liberty is not license…”
Republican elites talking among themselves:
“Screw them all, make sure we’re first in line.”
Tweeterings…
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
Then:
Ford to city: Drop dead.
Now:
Meadows to country: Drop dead.
Well the biggest reason of all is Trump has a record to run on now.
Even pre-covid it was all a mirage..
Earlier this week–“We’re turning the corner”.
Now, “We are not going to get control of the pandemic.”
Such radical shifts in messaging means only one thing–PANIC !!
Reality is out-running BS.
Trump taunted Ethiopia for their plan to build the RENAISSANCE DAM and says Egypt will blow it up. Here is what is he talking about?
Cost and financing from Wiki:
“The Ethiopian government has stated that it intends to fund the entire cost of the dam by itself in order to prevent relying on foreign countries who may be brought under pressure by Egypt to withdraw their support. Ethiopia has issued a bond targeted at Ethiopians in the country and abroad to that end.[17] The turbines and associated electrical equipment of the hydropower plants costing about US$1.8 billion are reportedly financed by Chinese banks. This would leave US$3 billion to be financed by the Ethiopian government through other means.[30] The estimated US$4.8 billion construction cost, apparently excluding the cost of power transmission lines, corresponds to about 5% of Ethiopia’s gross domestic product of US$87 billion in 2017.”
The city of Chicago likes to use the phrase “they balanced their budget” when they borrow money from external sources instead of city taxes to fund their massive deficits. Looks like Ethiopia is going to borrow a lot of money to fund their dam.
Actually, China is building it with their Chinese made turbine and electrical equipment using their workers with their army standing guard and staying after the completion to make sure the bill is paid, which seems unlikely.. China is doing this all over the world in order to gain control of income producing properties and assets.
China is doing that…..but they have a bad demographic problem because of their one child policy…..they also don’t really have shit for a navy. They are also the world’s largest importer of fossil fuels.
I read..and have some faith in…..Peter Zeihan’s take on China.
And not necessarily just because he lives in my neighborhood.
I said many weeks a ago that one possibility was a Biden landslide. Based…not on Biden’s record or his platform or his promises…..but on the election turning into a referendum on Trump. On the surface at least….this seems to be the way things are headed.
I do think there are silent Trump voters who might be motivated by fear around movements like BLM and #defundthe police. I doubt that’s a huge group. But it might make the race closer than it looks now.
I didn’t vote Libertarian in 2016. I made an anti-Trump vote then…..but I wanted it to count, so I held my nose and voted Democrat. I’ve known enough about him since the late 1970’s to know he was unfit for high office. It was difficult to vote for Clinton…..as far as corruption, she was and still is way beyond anything Joe Biden ever thought about.
Since I don’t watch TV, I never saw Trump’s silly reality TV show. I strongly suspect that is what influenced many people to vote for him in 2016…….a fake billionaire, on a totally fake show, faking how a high-rolling businessman operates. Vicarious pleasure for people with no power at all in their own lives.
Americans have always been saps for celebrities. Trump voters liked to hear him say “You’re fired!” . That’s what I think.
Since I live in a red state, I might have just as well have written in Ron Paul again…..he’s he only Libertarian leaning politician I ever thought might win the presidency…but even he wasn’t capable of making a dent in BAU, when he had the chance.
I’m good with a Biden win, frankly, in terms of how the election impacts me. Trump never lowered my taxes enough to matter anyway. I’m not a billionaire. I’m an upper-middle class tax donkey…a dying breed. Not sure where the money comes from for all the profligate waste and graft and corporate bailouts when we’re all gone. I worry for my kids more than I worry for myself.
I don’t buy all the rhetoric about China… Xi is a power-grabbing despot…I’ll certainly give you that….and China mines data out the wazoo..no doubt. But China has their own problems….the chickens will come home to roost.
Our monetary policy is not likely to change much with a new administration. The Fed is painted into a corner that has been getting smaller for more than a decade……I expect asset bubbles to be inflated much bigger before they collapse…..
Stocks might be a hedge for inflation, but I’d advise getting an understanding of what stocks might be worth in a deflationary collapse scenario…..which is not much.
I will continue to save cash and buy tangible assets, and try to lower my taxes by emulating the real rich, insomuch as I can, at my modest level of financial accomplishment.
My favorite comment on the article.
Thanks very much.
I do not think anyone could put it better than Biden did himself as he recently said…
“We have put together, I think, the most extensive and and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics” Of course you will not see Mish covering that one….
Here is one more reason this is not 2016. Unlike in 2016, the silent majority (non twitter/blog folks) is a lot more secretive this time about their support for Trump. None of the people that I know of that have voted or will vote for Trump, and I know quite a few, have participated in any pollster calls, posted any signs on their property or showed in any way that they support Trump. They’re just not sure that if they do that they won’t be harassed or have their property or business vandalized by “peaceful protestors” later on. Interestingly enough, all the gun stores in my and surrounding areas have been sold out of ar15s and matching amo for weeks. That didn’t happen in 2016 either. Doubtful that all these people that suddenly decided to arm themselves are going to vote democrat.
You mean the silent majority that has impromptu truck and boat parades with hundreds of huge trump flags, honking their horns and hollering like the methed up yahoos they are?
Seems this time the silent majority (a useless term that should go away) and more likely Biden voters. I mean, there is nothing likable about Biden and overwhelming majority of his voters simply want Trump to lose. They feel icky supporting Joe, as they should, so they don’t advertise their support.
Contrast that with Trump supporters, who seem to take pains to be as loud and obnoxious as possible. When’s the last time you met a Trump supporter who left any ambiguity about their beliefs?
I’ve been thinking this also, the pollsters have some 2016 PTSD.
Great post, this kind of clear headed analysis is why I love your blog.
I’m hoping they back tested
In the debate, Trump and Biden did not reveal that with the private fed’s money machine, they were going to spend money we don’t have and run up the trade deficit from nose bleeding unconscious levels to infinity and beyond as we lose more manufacturing. Instead, they chose to say they we’re going to spend “our money”, ie, “taxpayer money”, discreetly and judiciously. Welcome to the continuing, but mutating New World Order ! There are lies, more lies, then there are statistics.
I just pulled up Chris Ruddy’s site Newsmax. Not a single Biden story on Burisma. It’s over. Story never resonated, probably because people know Joe Biden and it was debunked so quickly. If it had been about Hillary Clinton and had similar veracity it would have gained far more traction.
Rudy isn’t exactly in a position to on the attack right now either. I doubt we’ll be hearing from him much over the next ten days given his tuckgate scandal
Talk about deluded. The polls underestimate Trump’s support by at least 10%. After November 3, the pollsters are going to have to explain why they were so wrong yet again.
It’s hard to explain why it’s important to many that Trump needs to win in order to have continuity on the fight against Chinese Communist Party (not people of China) when people are clueless about how CCP operates. Ask countries or companies that have dealt with CCP and sufferred, they will tell you that it is often too late when you finally realized that whatever rules/laws/agreements you have with CCP, it does not matter because CCP never honors in ways that matters.
National security about Huawei or even tik tok is really about CCP having access to data when they want to without anyone knowing about it. And CCP would use it to control people. The world was ok without China market before and the world will be ok again after making supply chain adjustments and work with more trustworthy partners. China does not own the world and there is not scientific proof that the world would not survive without China, so lets not hold the world hostage for sounding the alarm that decoupling is nothing but harms. Change is a matter of will and people should do it when it is necessary. I certainly hope that no more people need to learn about the danger of trusting CCP the hard way because there should be enough evidences out there.
I don’t understand why MISH would claim that the Hunter story is not relevant. If the story turns out to be true, it is very relevant. It is about taking money and influence policies based on money, which is a serious problem. I hope MISH would be willing to admit his mistakes later if he turns out to be so wrong about this.
Reflects exactly the point of my first sentence, but good news is that there are also many people (and hopefully enough of them) that care enough about it. If US government is controlled by China (imagine Biden is elected), how can anyone in US believe that policies made by those would be good for US short, medium and long term? And what is the price to pay to reverse it later?
Your and tRumpian scare and xenophobian tactic does not work anymore this time, because you guys are worse.
And Trump and Jared and Ivanka all play kissyface with Putin and Kim Jong Un. We don’t exactly have any good choices here.
Very good summary. The only bright spot for Trump are among the least educated black and hispanic males who have clearly shifted to Trump. The majority will still select Biden but in smaller numbers than in 2016. They’re attracted to the “macho” factor, want to be closer to the “white ” power structure and think Trump represents how a businessman operates.
Also for those wanting to believe 2020 is like 2016 polls for Clinton showed her weakening in the polls the last few weeks before the election. We’re not seeing that with Biden. So if you believe 2020 is like 2016 it’s not logical to ignore the divergence in 2020 vs 2016 national polling.
I do worry about this faction you mention……I see this “ethnic macho guys for Trump” here a lot, in the population I encounter in my work.
I don’t think it will carry the election, but it matters here in Texas.
We have it ny. It will impact florida though
Over 70 validated Bonus reasons!..
Goodbye Old Party!..Go Frack yourself!…
It’s ironic that the Trump who has worn a mask for the last 33 years will lose an POTUS election due to his refusal to mandate them!.
Science Matters! & Change Matters
Yes, how like a libertarian to pass control to the states. He may be a germophobe, but he won’t impose that on you. Instead, he’ll let you decide! Terrible!
Asking the Gravy Seals to thwart the will of the state government….
I think that as here (in France) the results given in polls are not raw results. They are modified with respect to older polls, where it has been possible to compare the raw results and the final score in the elections. This means that there are some “recipes” to build the results given to the public. These recipes work as long as there are no important changes or events in the country. But you have just had two very imporant events: covid19 and anarchy and violence in big cities….
I live in France too and I have noticed how the media here covers the election this time. It’s much more muted than before. Normally they are 100% Democrats can do no wrong but now they avoid the subject. They don’t understand what happened to the Democrat Party and they don’t want the same thing to happen here.
Polls are wrong again and it is showing up in early voting ….it looks like Trump has a very good chance of taking Florida and NC. Trump is ahead in Ohio… and Georgia according to the Democrats as of yesterday.
Rasmussen Reports that the Black vote for Trump as of 10/19 was 25% and has jumped to 46% as of 10/23 it has nearly doubled. Similar gains can be expected among the Hispanic community.
Trump is definitely on his way to another election win. Trumps support has dominated Biden’s….just look at his rallies and look at Biden’s a massive difference….there is no enthusiasm for Biden.
The Democrats have been fooled again by the polls the Media and their own party….when will they wise up and realize they have been lied to again.
You are absolutely RIGHT! Go figure. A political unknown wins the Presidency in 2016, and everyone is still completely blindsided with his natural advantages of successes and familiarity for 2020? Not to mention, the DNC puts up a bigger looser than ever! What? Can anybody give this man credit for knowing what he’s doing?
You need to provide links when posting such data or your posts will just get ignored. Every bullet point you mention can and will be refuted.
Start with Rasmussen, they are among the most GOP biased polling agencies there is. In the presidential approve/disapprove polls they are routinely divergent of the consensus by as much as 18 points. Where every polling outlet has Trump’s disapproval at from -9 to -16 Rasmussen has a +4 for Trump. It is the only polling outlet to ever show a positive rating for Trump, but by all means if you need to read only those polls that satisfy your own bias confirmation imperitives you are free to do so.
Trump will not take Florida. This state is a prime example of urban rural blue/red divide. There are 67 counties and only 10 or so are safe blue, with maybe 50 that are safe red. The problem for the GOP is all those safe red counties do not have the population that the safe blue urban counties do. Meaning that in order for the GOP to take Florida it has to maintain a lock on those rural red counties with overwhelming margins. In 2020 they will win those red counties for the most part, but not by the overwhelming margins they need to carry the state.
As of right now:
ACTIVE ELIGIBLE VOTERS
117,094
TOTAL BALLOTS CAST
51,764
PERCENT TURNOUT
44.21%
This is in Citrus County, it is normally a county that goes about 60% for GOP candidates, it is pretty conservative. It is also a very average county for looking at results in the red counties. As you can see after the first week of early voting turnout is already huge, it would appear we will reach 80% or more turnout in total when the votes are all counted. There is a reason republicans try to suppress turnout, it does not favor them. And the higher the turnout the more accurate the polls are.
So if the normal year has GOP winning such counties by 60+ percent but this time they only get 55% they will lose in the statewide count. Trust me when I say that Trump has crapped in his own nest here. Seniors and women as well as most minorities are highly motivated to vote and they are NOT voting for Trump, I know I did not, I was there the first day of early voting and you could see in the faces of the people in line who was GOP and who was Dem, the Dems were smiling and happy to have their voice at last, all the chatter was optimistic and friendly from them while the Trump people were quiet and distracted, downcast. Outnumbered even. Clearly not optimistic.
Your quoting of Rasmussen regarding the African American vote is simply childish, anyone that thinks black voters are going to vote for Trump by anything larger than single digits has just zero credibility at all.
The only place Donald Trump is going is to prison in New York state, or he may opt to flee to russia to get asylum from Putin, his real boss. This is going to be a landslide for Biden. The only people fooled are the fascists that support Trump and even most of them know they are going down with the presidential Titanic, as well as the US Senate.
Only Rasmussen and occassionally Zogby have shown net approval for Trump, Zogby is just as biased as Rasmussen but keeps their outlier results to a minimum.
Go to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/trump-approval/ And check for yourselves rather than depend on extreme biased and very questionable origin sources such at PT109 or Kimo. No president gets elected with these sorts of disapproval ratings, no matter what else you may believe about polling the people are disgusted with Trump and want him out. It is going to happen.
Better lube up then, because if trump wins, there are going to be a lot of monkeys flying out of your butt.
Zardoz and PT109, how is the weather in St. Petersburg? Betcha there’s going to be some sort of unfortunate gas leak after January 21, 2021 in your city. The Russian utility infrastructure has always been very suspect.
I agree with@Mish on this one.
Which means: Stock market, the sky’s the limit! MMT will bail out public pension funds and even state and local budgets. Capital gains won’t be confiscated unless pension funds can dodge such confiscation. So stocks will remain a hedge against inflation. Until they aren’t.
Yes, stocks are a wild card. As soon as a major producer gets their house in better order than us, either stocks and/or inflation will kill us. It will happen.
it’s going to be VERY funny when most of this forum finally understand what is going on and who is in control…just a few days left.
Sounds like the Q drivel written on ZH by people who think Trump will in all 50 states.
Who is in control anyway? Is it the “cabal”, or is it the “patriots” who sit around on their backsides trusting the plan?
He’s not likely to win Hawaii, but a noticeable tsunami has formed, and there’s 10 days to go. Biden peaked a few weeks too early, and the skeletons are coming out of the closet.
Is it the gold bugs?
I believe it is still possible Trump wins 2nd term with 270-280 electoral college votes but for this to happen everybody supporting Trump needs to go to the polls and vote and Trump needs to keep doing the 3 rallies per day pace he is doing now and there needs to be more drip drip drip from the Hunter Biden laptop and there needs to be data from there connecting Joe Biden to corruption even clearer than has so far happened so Joe Biden loses the moral high ground he has tried to take against Trump.
Nope sorry, the vote is a referrendum on Trump and nothing else. Your scandalous and made up anti Biden BS may be good for keeping the brainwashed republicans from defecting but that is all it will do, because for the rest of us this is about getting Trump out of office no matter who else is on the ballot. Notice that your party and russia’s best FSB agents have not deflected Mish in his determination to not vote for Trump. Trump “won” the electoral college by the slimmest of margins in 2016 to the point it was historic, and will by the way bring the end of the electoral college itself. This can never be allowed to happen again.
Trump has not won over any dems and few if any indy voters, while the social media absolutely buzzes with republicans and indy voters who cannot wait to correct their error. The only hope the GOP had was to find a way to make this not a referendum on Trump and they have failed with more than 50 million people already having voted. Trump cannot afford to lose the states he took in 2016, and the three he got by less than 80,000 TOTAL votes in just seven counties in those three states giving him that suspicious electoral win.
If he loses in Florida, or any other larger state like Georgia, there simply will be zero path to an electoral win, he pretty much has to hold every state he got in 2016, and the odds of that right now are just about what Nate Silver is predicting at 538, 12% for Trump, 88% for Biden. So could it happen, not impossible, but Trump’s odds are a lot lower now than they were in 2016 at this time, and we all know how narrow his so called win really was. He will not imporove on that (without cheating).
In other words trump has no chance.
It’s possible but what are we talking 10-15% probability?
Trump is a symptom and removing him is not the cure. Conversely, its become quite obvious Trump is unable to do almost anything to lift this country out of the morass it is in. He actually made things much worse and/or made it obvious to most of us just how bad things are.
Trumpism and Trump don’t suddenly go away if he loses. He has a massive twitter following and it’s clear what he says is consumed by 30-40% of the country. White Nationalists, Militia types and QAnon folks are not going away. This all must be dealt with. It’s no going to be easy.
Yes, Jackula, I’ll go with your “or”.
Trump doesn’t understand his responsibility as president to protect the people, and he doesn’t understand his responsibility to tell the truth. And he does not understand his moral responsibility to carry out the duties of the presidency.
“Trump is a symptom and removing him is not the cure.”
Many of us have said this and I am one of them. But, I also say it is the first step and without that step the USA will cease to be the republic it was. The country will not survive another four years of Trump. We do not need fancy words or vieled threats of civil war or other insurrection. Trump’s goal is to end the USA and if he gets the power to do this for another four years he will succeed.
When you elect a clown you get a circus. I predict we find out more bad stuff about the Trump admin and how it has handled covid. The one constant with Trump is the truth is always worse than anybody knows. He has failed at every turn in life and his presidency is no different. The truth is going to be shocking.
Libertarians don’t want “one size fits all” solutions coming down from the top. If you need to protect yourself from covid, please do so. Let healthy, fit, people go about their business. Trump has passed covid recommendations to your governor. Respond accordingly.
“what do you have to lose” hits different in 2020 vs 2016
There will have to be “truth and reconciliation” hearings and Nuremberg-style trials after this, full stop. There is simply no way to discourage the conduct that has gotten us within a hair’s breadth of authorianism without exposing all of the rot – whether it be from Republicans or Democrats.
Mish, your Biden love is showing again.
I guess every country must end. Voting Biden is voting the death of our country.
Could argue that with either candidate. The clock has been ticking since we decided to print to the moon in 2008 and let’s be honest, neither of these two guys will lift a finger to stop it.
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Trump almost destroyed it in 4 years. Biden’s policies will take at least 10-20 years to do it.
Biden’s policies?
He won’t have any.
Harris will replace him within a year.
She won’t have policies either.
The Party will control the White House for the full term.
Around here people refer to Biden as, “ByeDone”. That’s fine with me.
436 REASONS WHY IS THIS EXACTLY LIKE 2016:
1). HILLARY = TRUMP = OBAMA.
2). BIDEN = OBAMA = TRUMP.
3). OBAMA = TRUMP = HILLARY.
4.). TRUMP = BIDEN = OBAMA.
5). PELOSI = MCCONALL = OBAMA.
6). SCHUMMER = TRUMP = PELOSI.
7). JORGENSON = OBAMA = TRUMP.
8. SANDERS DOES NOT = JORGENSON BIDEN TRUMP OBAMA HILLARY SCHUMMER PELOSI MCCONALL