Gap Closing

Trump has narrowed the gap and it started at the beginning of August. 

Some of the closure is normal tightening. Like Silver, I expected the gap to close simply because it usually does.

Nauseating But Predicted

But some of gap closure is self-inflicted silliness. 

As noted in Nauseating But Predicted: Biden Selects Kamala Harris as His VP Running Mate, Biden's selection was as nauseating as it was predictable.

It will not help Biden beat Trump, but Trump is so far behind it likely does not matter.

I cannot support this ticket, nor can I support Trump.

The pick could cost Biden the election, something I stated before, but I still think Biden will win.

However, the selection of Harris might easily prevent the Democrats from capturing the Senate and for that we can be grateful. 

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Harris might also cost Democrats a chance to win Ohio and North Carolina. Those states have now both tipped slightly to Trump from Biden.

Biden Slightly Favored Still

Biden Slightly Favored 2020-08-31

That's about how I see things, down from 70-75%.

Someone like Amy Klobuchar may have paid dividends in Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa without costing a cent anywhere else.

It's hard to assess if this is a beginning of a fundamental shift or just normal tightening on top of a very poor Biden VP selection. 

For now, I stick with my assessment this is mostly normal tightening.

Biden can lose Florida and Arizona, or Pennsylvania and Arizona. 

Trump's path is much much narrower. He needs Arizona and Florida plus another state.

Mish