Gap Closing
Trump has narrowed the gap and it started at the beginning of August.
Some of the closure is normal tightening. Like Silver, I expected the gap to close simply because it usually does.
Nauseating But Predicted
But some of gap closure is self-inflicted silliness.
As noted in Nauseating But Predicted: Biden Selects Kamala Harris as His VP Running Mate, Biden’s selection was as nauseating as it was predictable.
It will not help Biden beat Trump, but Trump is so far behind it likely does not matter.
I cannot support this ticket, nor can I support Trump.
The pick could cost Biden the election, something I stated before, but I still think Biden will win.
However, the selection of Harris might easily prevent the Democrats from capturing the Senate and for that we can be grateful.
Harris might also cost Democrats a chance to win Ohio and North Carolina. Those states have now both tipped slightly to Trump from Biden.
Biden Slightly Favored Still
That’s about how I see things, down from 70-75%.
Someone like Amy Klobuchar may have paid dividends in Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa without costing a cent anywhere else.
It’s hard to assess if this is a beginning of a fundamental shift or just normal tightening on top of a very poor Biden VP selection.
For now, I stick with my assessment this is mostly normal tightening.
Biden can lose Florida and Arizona, or Pennsylvania and Arizona.
Trump’s path is much much narrower. He needs Arizona and Florida plus another state.
Mish
Mish as you know not voting or voting for an independent is a vote for Biden. Biden is an idiot now more then before. Mish you did not move to Utah because the Chicago politicians are your favorite people. Biden is one of them. Other then bringing down the deficits Trump has been very pro business, pro military and pro police and pro- legal immigration. I like these things!
If the “gap is closing” it is Putin closing it.
As riots continue and our cities begin to look more like Belfast than any American city the American people will rightly put blame for this violence squarely upon the Democratic party, which is exactly where it belongs.
As people flee Democratic run cities and States, they will re-examine the lies of liberalism and the reasons they are now refugees fleeing their homes and their former lives…..
All of this is nonsense. America is a racist white supremacist country. Nothing has changed that fact. Trump will win easily and thus begin the final destruction of the USA. The blue states will finally secede thank God.
The problem isn’t choosing Kamala, it is choosing Biden.
The problem is Trump. He ix exactly the opposite of the stability that most people really need. Portions of the business and investment community have flipped to Biden.
I think Biden would have liked to pick Rice, but she was way too financially well off, and not at all into the whole entitlement POV….i.e. not black enough. Harris was number two on the “least likely to rock the DNC boat” list. That’s her qualification…and she does suit me more than some of the alternatives…even though what Mish said about her is true.
Never ever underestimate the ability of the Democratic Party to wrest defeat from the jaws of victory. This is the story of politics in America in the 21st century. The biggest problem the Democrats have is that they abandoned their traditional white working class base in order for the donor class to benefit financially from unlimited influence peddling.
The entire Democratic Party platform is based on a false narrative. The only people who can’t see that are rich liberals, young idealists, and true believers with the blinders on.
Trump is catching up because the Dems are kissing BLM butt and taking the knee…..virtue signaling like mad to make their new LGBTQ and ethnic minority base happy. What’s next in this misguided attempt to take down white males and guarantee equal outcomes for all? I have to ask myself this.
It represents a real enigma. I can’t in good conscience vote for Trump. I also don’t believe in abstaining or writing in a good candidate, like I did 8 years ago for Ron Paul. That doesn’t achieve any good end, just tips the scales to whichever party gets the vote out.
It actually makes me want to GTFO of the US, but I don’t see any better alternative destinations, as of now.
Go vote for Trump and try to get him to become better.
Joe Biden is demented and not voting for anybody is a vote for Joe Biden in this situation.
How are protests and riots seen as orchestrated by the democrats? Nothing to do with the guy in charge of the entire country. The white guy that drove across state lines to murder some protesters? Somehow Biden’s fault? All of the fox news cult members were always going to vote Trump. The real reason Trump will win is because people like Mish can’t tell which is worse, capital gains tax or the return of the confederacy.
It is the refusal of Mayors and Governors to discharge their duties and protect the property and lives of their citizens. Over 700 buildings in Portland have been burned and 1500 in Minneapolis and thousands more across the country. Yet “the protests are mostly peaceful.” is the crap we hear. Democrats refuse to acknowledge, let alone denounce Antifa, the trained, and well funded organization behind most of the violence. The black people have mostly gone home. It is the white radical element that continues the destruction. Democrats are losing ground because they can’t keep their far left under control. Biden could gain 5 points by denouncing the violence instead of saying that it isn’t happening. That makes him part of the problem.
Ummm, did he say Antifa?
The “It happened on Trump’s watch” argument is pure sophistry. Rioting and looting is the result of permissive local government.
Trump is gaining ground because Dem governors refuse to control rioters. People are beginning to see how Fauci, the CDC and FDA tried to undercut Trump at every turn during the pandemic, as did the DOJ and the intelligence community with the Russia bulls#!t. In my opinion Fauci, along with CDC and FDA officials should be charged with murder. I don’t know how to prove it, but it stinks at every turn.
He is an evil man–a real swamp critter–who Gun Owners of America warned us about during his confirmation.
Harris might also cost Democrats a chance to win Ohio and North Carolina
This is so overrated. LeBron James and Michael Jordan are spending millions in those states to get out the vote. I expect black voter turnout to be at historic highs. It is not even talked about in the media anywhere. Texas is also slipping away for Trump because third party candidates are polling close to 10%. The more votes that go to the third party candidate there the more chances improve for Biden. Trump is sucking up so much of the mainstream and right wing media airwaves and too many folks on both sides think 2016 will happen again. No one is paying attention to the ground game.
Even in South Carolina Jamie Harrison is TIED with Miss Lindsey Graham, the delicate flower of southern racist GOP politics. Had anyone even suggested that was possible 6 months ago they would have been laughed off the forum. Those Harrison voters are going to put Trump’s lead in danger there also. Graham has tied his fate to Trump so inextricably that what happens to Trump happens to himself.
Where’s Ross Perot when you really need him to upset an election? I miss his level of entertainment:
“I grew up in Texarkana. I know what they do over there in Arkansas. Now, let me ask you. Do you want patater chips or computer chips?”
Yeah this election is already no fun at all. Did people on this board get this worked up four years ago?
Donald Trump is an existential threat to the USA, if Putin pulls this one off for him it will be via actual tabulation changes and it will end the USA. And it may end no matter who wins. If we even have an election, if it is ever even known who got more votes.
Top general says no role for military in U.S. presidential election
That statement can be taken two ways. It can mean he and the military will stand aside and allow Trump to be commander in chief even when he clearly cheated or even cancelled the election, or delayed results till the nation is in de facto civil war.
That is to say he says the military will not step in and make sure there is a peaceful transition of power even if they are the last resort to stop the nation tearing itself apart. Nor step aside if Trump declares an emergency and martial law.
If they have no role in resolving a disputed election then they also have no role in determining the constitutionality of orders given. That is they will carry out any and all orders from the commander in chief and will not even attempt to determine who that even is.
Or you could read it to mean: “In the event of a dispute over some aspect of the elections, by law U.S. courts and the U.S. Congress are required to resolve any disputes, not the U.S. military. I foresee no role for the U.S. armed forces in this process.”
That the military would not act on Trump’s orders no matter what they are as long as his presidency is being settled in a dispute by proper channels. Okay, but what if Trump has a real situation outside the US that is a legitimate commander in chief issue, say Putin were to attack US forces in Syria or Afghanistan? Or, China were to attack the Philippines? Or Taiwan? Or, sink a US vessel in the Taiwan Strait? Or, occupy islands claimed by Vietnam?
Over and over he stressed that the role of the military is to stay out of election, but what if Trump attempts to remain commander in chief after losing? He does not say what will trigger the change from a Trump commander position and a Biden Commander position. It is as if he is saying whoever happens to be in the Oval Office will be commander in chief no matter the legality of that occupation.
To his credit he did answer: ” Milley, known to be a student of military and constitutional history, anchored many of his responses in the nation’s founding document. Asked if the military would refuse an order from the president if he was attempting to use military action for political gain rather than national security, Milley said, “I will not follow an unlawful order.”
But in a contested election how will he decide what is and what is not a lawful order?
Trump has done Putin’s work well, at this point neither GOP or democrats will accept a loss as legitimate. The refusal will lead to violence and when Trump calls up the military on home turf that is when our global competitors will strike because our military cannot both keep peace at home and outside the nation. The military says it has no role in disputed elections, but they will have no choice when Trump draws them into it. And he will because there is nothing that would so divide America nor weaken our military than to tie it up with enforcing a declaration of martial law and suspension of habeas corpus. There is NOTHING Putin would like better so it will be our future. Trump will claim his loss was fraudulent and refuse to leave office, the USA will break up. You are living in the last days of the United States. Watch and record your history.
Trump is going to win. For those that don’t believe that, wear a MAGA shirt anywhere not a red state. You will get trash talked and spit on. Trump supporters have given up showing their support openly. In this environment phone polling becomes worthless. We live in a world where everything is recorded. Polling is one sided because of this.
People are scared of the things Biden supports. Rioting and BLM. People will do what is best for them and their family. As long as Biden supports things that go against the white voting majority his numbers will continue to deteriorate. I think Biden is trapped in this position. It’s a lose lose for him.
It’s interesting to me for@Mish to be leaning against Trump. Before the election all he talked about was wanting a president that wouldn’t start another war. He also lowered the corporate tax rate witch was another point Mish made several times. You make many good points about his many many flaws and lies. He should be called out but has done many good things to help this country. Those good things rarely get talked about.
I am also very glad Trump was our president for Covid. Many people think he did a terrible job but looking at the big picture he has done pretty well. All over the world Corona is either spreading or they are locked down delaying the spread. Either way it doesn’t matter. Everyone will get covid at some point. Destroying the economy while only delaying the outcome is not the right route. Covid is smarter than us. Life any virus it will take decades to vaccinate covid away, if ever.
The tax cut didnt pay for itself and economic morass is the creation of Trump’s failures. Double digit unemployment is due to his poor response on covid from the beginning. You live in an alternate universe, clearly.
Law & Order will win for Trump. Riots & Anarchy will even push Democrats to vote him back in. FACT
Trump deliberately caused the riots and anarchy. He dared the the protesters to riot by tweeting out racist dogma used to justify shooting blacks in the 60s. Fact.
Sounds like you are calling his team a genius. Interesting how he didn’t set off rioting in red states though.
I think both sides deserve blame. One for daring the children to do it and the other for not stopping the children.
It would be nice to see him make an actual effort to stop the problem. I think that would gain him a lot of support. When it came to this issue, Obama was content to largely ignore it, and just let the riots proceed until they burned out, and Trump seems content to to encourage them, and threaten crackdowns. What would be a nice would be to see a President, of either party, willing to call for unity, and call for people to work together, and perhaps establish some blue ribbon, non-partisan committee to look into the issues and to make recommendations for changes.
I don’t really know what he can do. He has offered the national guard(funding) and been turned down. He is egging it on but city politics is a bottom up system. The mayor- governor – federal government. I am sure polling has told him the proper route to do. Sadly that’s where we are at in this day and age.
What could he do? Well, in my opinion, when the video of Floyd first came out, before the riots even started, he should have called a national press conference and said something along the lines of “What happened was simply unacceptable. Yet, now is not a time for rioting, because riots will only increase the divide, and make the problems worse. Now is the time for America to come together, to find a solution so that this kind of thing doesn’t happen again. I’m going to call for a national conference, to involve people from all races, from all walks of life, from all parties, and from all parts of the country to come together to develop proposals for changes which will help us avoid incidents like this in the future. While this conference meets, I urge everyone to know that America agrees that this was not acceptable, and I urge everyone to work together to assure that this solution is found.”
But, Trump never called for peace. He never called for unity. He never called for a solution. He never called for changes. Instead we got “when the looting starts, the shooting starts”.
Republican Tim Scott who himself has been racially profiled had many good solutions but Democrats aka that party of HATE was not interested in solutions, Democrats were interested in stirring up more hate and anger and having no solutions so the issue can be used in elections to make people angry enough that they go vote Joe “dementia” Biden.
Tim Scott is an Uncle Tom. He is supporting a candidate that foments violence and brings out white militia groups.
Please stop with the racist comments. Believe it or not, blacks are entitled to their own opinions, even ones that disagree with you.
Uncle Tom is such a demeaning phase. The whole liberal movement has shown the true intolerance of views that don’t align with theirs. The problem is simply ignoring the opinion is not enough. They must destroy the person for their opinion.
I agree Trump could have done things differently. I don’t think it would have made any difference though. When protest turn into violence it’s the job of the local/state to quell the unrest. They tried to protest/riot in my southern city and it was stomped out with a quickness. Laws are followed because of conscience and/or the boot. When you take away the boot you will find a large subset of the population don’t have conscience toward society. Blaming Trump is very easy but when these protest only are happening in democrats cities is very telling in direction things are headed. Cut off your nose to spite your face.
You guys are out of touch with reality. You forgot why the protests started. It wasn’t because of Trump. It is because cops have special laws protecting them against any action they take in many states.
If you want to attack people’s opinions, go for it. If you want to insult them personally, using racially insensitive language, I find that offensive.
So you think both sides are in favor of escalation of violence?
somewhat similar to the 1968 Democratic convention riots in Chicago, might have helped Nixon win.
Trump is trying to start a war with Iran, trashed a great deal, pisses on allies, is a moron on trade.
I cannot support him.
Exactly. Trump is an arsonist who claims he didn’t have anything to do with the fire even though he lit the match, threw it down near the scene of the crime and pretended like it was someone else.
I think you are confusing him with Harris. She actually bailed violent rioters out. She can’t walk that back.
Ironic you mention that. Harris in not liked by many liberals in San Francisco when she was attorney general. She put a lot of black people in jail too. She has her own history of being the law and order attorney general.
Law and order but she backs out accused rapist and arsonist?
For the life of me don’t understand picking her. She is nothing but a negative.
1.
Trump is NOT trying to start a war with Iran.
Trump is trying to be unpredictable enough that the crazy mullahs of Iran who want to oppress women and think marrying 9 year old girls is OK and throw gays from the rooftops do NOT do anything stupid like continue paying shia militias in Iraq bounties for every killed American soldier like they did for 8 years under Obama and that Trump put a stop to by sending a missile to kill General Soleimani who was responsible for the bounty programs.
2.
Was the Iran deal so great?
What was great about it?
All the orders Iran made after Obama gifted Iran that sweetheart deal were for European companies and Chinese companies so NO BENEFIT for US companies and the loopholes in that deal meant that the limitations on Iran developing nuclear technology and eventually nuclear bombs had sunset clauses starting from 2020 onwards.
3.
Asking European NATO countries to spend the amount of GDP for military that they have AGREED TO when joining NATO is somehow pissing on allies?
Trump has managed to get many countries meet their NATO obligations and all others have increased their military spending and are looking to meet their NATO obligations in a few years.
This has meant increased orders for US made guns, missiles etc. etc. and created more jobs and tax revenue for USA.
Better European defense is also a block for Russia even thinking about doing something militarily.
4.
Trump has the right instinct on trade.
China was ripping USA off for 8 years under Obama and 8 years under Bush thru IP theft and currency devaluation, forced technology transfer and mandated 51% chinese ownership in Chinese subsidiaries of US companies and trade blocks on American made products.
Trump is wrong and stupid to claim trade wars are easy to win because they never are.
China is NOT respecting Phase 1 deal despite Navarro talking out of his ass.
The NAFTA replacement USMCA was not much better than NAFTA and should have included a deal that Mexico processes all asylum claims for all people going thru Mexico like USA has such a deal with Canada.
However Trump is correct that USA can NOT have it’s trade balance so out of whack with China and it’s insane that USA is beholden to China for drugs, medical products like masks and PPE and vitamins and drug components and manufacture of these and many others must be brought back to USA since China is a communist country trying to infiltrate USA both through colleges, universities and through partnerships with states where many Democrat states have been eagerly taking these up and about 100 professors and other members of academia are out of a job or arrested for taking Chinese money.
USA being dependent on China for critical supplies is as stupid of an idea as USA being dependent on Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Riots, looting and closed public schools will push many who hate Trump to vote for him. They’ve turned my lifelong-Democrat wife into an independent, seeing Democrats cower to the teacher’s unions.
Our public schools closed (union requested the governor shut them down), reopened as for-pay daycare centers (same students, taxpayer buildings), and the governor closed private schools that had planned to open (when teacher’s unions realized they’d lose their remote-learning enrollments to private schools). The unions overplayed their hands.
Riots & looting… most people realize that when the big-city Dem mayors tied the hands of their PDs for 90+ days and then suddenly all condemned the riots for the first time on the same day that it was poll based.
I don’t know if it’ll be enough to keep Trump from beating himself, but Dems are again working hard to screw this up. It’s truly a race to the bottom. It’s close enough now that Biden has to leave his basement and compete with Trump to see who can say the most idiotic thing every day.
Many states are still very locked down. Our school system delayed school start but they are going back next week. The stress on parents that can’t work from home has been tremendous. I know a single Mom that is paying 1200 a month for childcare. She would be making some very hard choices around Christmas if they hadn’t decided to go back.
There will be winner states and loser states post covid. It’s going to get much worse before it gets better.
Dems played with fire with the Minnesota and Wisconsin riots… those are swing states that will probably go to Trump now… they should have kept that to DC, Oregon, Washington, NY and Illinois.
People are scared of the things Biden supports? How are they different from Trump in that Trump has pushed gun control, massive bailouts, massive trillion dollar deficits, large stimulus packages, redistribution of wealth, signed every funding bill to Planned Parenthood…
The looting and riots are under Trump’s watch. Expect ads pointing that out along with his calming tweets.
Blaming Trump for the riots is echo chamber material. The only people who agree are already voting against him.
I agree with you 100%! I was not going to vote at all because I’m sick of US Government war mongering (this is supported by the neolib’s on this board. disgusting) and no party being interested in dealing with our debts. After the riots and destruction, you would have to be a fool not to vote for Trump. Biden and Democrat leaders WANT a civil war and subjugation of white people. They are maniacs! That idiot Portland mayor Wheeler should be sued for that young man’s death. I don’t care what your political views are, no one should be murdered in cold blood!!! Debate and argue, ok, but to smash things, physically attack people and killing is barbaric. You are mentally ill if you think this is normal. Biden is demented and controlled like a puppet by radical left. Lastly, no one is talking about proper behavior when being confronted by a police officer. How come none of you geniuses think it’s wrong, disrespectful and downright dangerous to argue and resist arrest with police officers? The black community needs to educate themselves and control themselves instead of acting on bad impulses (continually) and putting their lives and the police officers lives in danger. Behave like a normal human being instead of an aggressive animal. Regarding some misdirected individual saying that Hispanics will vote according to Black desires, you are VERY, VERY WRONG. I deal hispanic folks and none of them like Blacks due to criminal activity. They do not want to live with them. If I was Trump, I would just focus primarily on the Latino vote, white vote, black conservative groups/clubs, and those city folks that have had their businesses and lives shattered by Antifa and their protagonists, the Democratic party. All emphasis should be put on advertising what the Democrats are supporting: destruction.
“I am also very glad Trump was our president for Covid.” You’re kidding, right? We still don’t have Covid rapid test machines deployed in nursing homes and assisted living communities. On and on the Cheeto buffoon droned about Covid being a killer of mostly the elderly. Meanwhile, NBA players are Covid tested every morning with same day results. How many trillions $ have been allocated to the pandemic bailout? And let’s not get into the debate about how most of the money is not being used by companies with access to the capital markets.
The NBA acquired those test through the free market. Why can’t nursing homes?
Sadly nursing home are just death camps. Very few of those people ever come out to live a health life ever again. My grandpa had to be put in a nursing home for a short time before he died. I wish he would have died before that. He would have chosen death over going there. Covid will just speed up the process. The nursing home should be the ones protecting their revenue stream.
Trump chose the living over the dying. I seriously believe if we had a D as a president we would still be locked down like serval states still are. The lay-off in those states will be staggering. Covid is going to infect everyone. The sooner you realize that the better the future will look.
There is NO need to test nursing home patients every morning if Democrat governors do NOT FORCE Covid positive patients to Nursing homes like DEMOCRATS did in New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Michigan.
Trump will be LUCKY to get 50 million votes, all he has is the far right rabid Trump base of the GOP. Last time he managed to hornswoggle (Hornswoggle definition, to swindle, cheat, hoodwink, or hoax) about 13 million independent voters, but not this time. Also, the more centrist GOP voters are dead set against Trump because they realize that he and he alone has ruined their party’s brand, and has lowered it into Nazi fascist ground. They might not be able to bring themselves to vote for Biden but they also cannot vote for Trump.
The reason you do not see Trump hats and shirts and posters or bumper stickers in non deep red places is because those people do not exist. Only in deep red places are there deep red people.
Well Trump got 3 million fewer voters than Hillary did in 2016 and by the thinnest vote margin in US history managed to pull off an electoral college win, but this time the democrat will have more than 20 million votes more than Trump, not just 3 million. There will be no plausible argument that Trump “won.” And all it will take to destroy the nation at that point is for him to say the election was a fraud and deny it’s legitimacy. Then there will be no place for people to be neutral in the battle for the USA. You will either be on Putin’s side with his orange stooge, or on the side of the constitution and the law. But note Trump supporters, you are going to be badly outnumbered and the military will not support him once he loses the election.
When it comes to violence and unrest in the country please keep in mind that only a Trump fascist can see it as anything but the natural result of his own dog whistling of neo Nazis and racists, QAnon conspiracy theorists and other psychos of the far right. A distinct minority. You want to end it? Vote for anyone but Trump.
That these far right “good people” plan to use their stockpiled guns in the wake of their fuhrer’s loss says all that needs to be said. The result of this vote is going to either end America forever, or change it so much nobody today will recognize it 10 years from now. And it will not include concentration camps and walls on the border. For my part I will not live in YOUR United States. I will not follow the orders of Nazis. I will stand with true Americans and the law, our constitution, and if that means death then so be that because our founders knew it could come to that, and there is nothing more important to me than seeing Nazis where they belong, dead in a grave.
And the cure all covid vaccine will be ready in a few weeks! I think I will pass on the fast track covid vaccine ty
I agree about Harris. She gets more voted where it doesn’t matter like California. She might help mobilize more of the black vote but I think Biden already would have outperformed Hillary on that metric. Seems to me surrogates of Harris did a number on Klobuchar behind the scenes. Also the pact with progressives but on the same token had Biden progressive turnout may have been weaker. The Bernie guys didn’t vote for clinton in the right numbers. Everything will rest with the independent vote in my opinion
Harris was actually going to lose the California primary which is why she dropped out before.
It’s getting ugly. Trump is bribing the UAE with F35 jets in exchange for peace with Israel to bring back lost evangelical support. All done weeks before an election
By bribing do you mean a multi billion dollar contract for sales?
No it’s a kickback. But even Israel thinks it’s a bad deal. This will turn off older Jew voters in places like Florida.
Country is in such sorry ass shape,bleak doesn’t come close to describing it,trillion dollar MONTHLY deficits,virtually every state (everything!) will need a federal bailout,cities look like 3rd world countries.There is zero to be optimistic about in this economy!
The stock market is hitting new highs. Things must be awesome!
LMAO…
Those deficits will only get worse with Biden in office. Not until “the people” wake up will those deficits be dealt with. Go ask the Average Joe what he thinks about the debt and deficits and he’ll say “Huh?”
My prediction.
NC more likely than WV or Ohio but otherwise reasonable
I think Ohio is going be a surprise. There is a large millenial population in Columbus that can now vote and LeBron James will have a huge impact in turning out the vote in Cleveland and Cincinnati.
I accidentally click on WV as blue. Should be red. Also hand one of WI or MN to Trump based on perception of riots. No matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump blows Texas because independents there go to Biden and more conservatives go to the Libertarian candidate. I have sources in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio that show the upper-middle class suburbs turned purple in 2018. Some even that moved there from California have grown so fatigued of Trump to vote for Biden. South Texas from San Antonio to McAllen will have a huge factor in flipping Texas either this year or in 2024 permanently.
Just for fun I made Texas blue and turned many states red just to see how many states Biden could lose and still win if he pulls the upset in Texas. This is not a likely outcome but it shows that if enough voters go to the libertarian candidate in Texas, Trump has ZERO chance of winning the national election.
Here’s my prediction: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Ql3bw
Arizona and Florida to revert to their “blue collar” roots (I lived for a year in AZ, so I think I can speak with a bit of authority).
Republicans will win (sadly IMO).
The senate race in Arizona is a leading indicator. Arizona and Colorado already in the bag for Dems. The most recent poll in Texas had Biden up 48-45. Trump robocall told voters in North Carolina to vote twice.
Maybe, and I hope you’re right. But Michael Moore disagrees. Guardian article from yesterday: Others, however, detected a shift in momentum and polls tightening, especially in swing states. “Of course Trump can win,” ran a headline in the Washington Post. Film-maker Michael Moore wrote: “I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much.” There was panic that Biden has been thrown on to the back foot by Trump’s demand for “law and order”.
You think he still has 60M ? I think it is closer to 50M. Hes lost independents and moderate Republicans. The fact that he only has 80% of Republican support which is only 25% if registered voters is a huge problem. That number was in the high 90s in 2016 and he had 70% of independents and a decent chunk of dems. Biden has 65M voters in the bag from 2016. He can easily get to 70M. The only chance Trump has is to cheat.
Trump still is playing defense in Texas and Georgia and Arizona. 10M new Latino voters 2020. LeBron James get out the vote campaign will be a huge factor in Ohio and Florida.