Democrats are unlikely to take a clean sweep of the White House, Senate and House. Here’s the Senate math.
Terrible candidate selection cost Republicans the Senate in 2022.
Trump is 100 percent to blame. Trump-backed senate candidates flamed out in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
2024 rates to be different.
Great Chance
The Wall Street Journal reports Republicans Have a Great Chance to Retake the Senate in 2024
There are 34 Senate races in 2024. Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents occupy 23 of the seats, eight of which are rated competitive or vulnerable by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes House and Senate races. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, all of them in states won by Trump in 2020. Of those, only the Texas seat held by Sen. Ted Cruz is rated competitive.
“The Senate majority is firmly in play, and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “But we’ve seen Republicans throw away opportunities before.”
Democrats’ hopes of keeping their 51-49 Senate majority took a hit last month when centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided not to run for re-election in West Virginia, a state that Trump won by almost 39 percentage points in 2020. Trump has endorsed Republican Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia’s Republican primary. Justice is dominating polling against Republican Rep. Alex Mooney. The winner of the GOP primary is expected to cruise to victory in the November general election.
With West Virginia seen as off the table, the battle for the Senate is centered on Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is running for a fourth term, and Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending the seat he has held since 2007. Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points and Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2020.
Those races might not even matter. If Republicans successfully defend all their current seats and win Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as expected, and if the party’s nominee also wins the White House, Republicans will control the Senate in 2024, thanks to the new vice president’s tiebreaking vote, without picking up any other seats.
Trump, Abortion, and Poor Candidate Selection Again in Play
2024 will not be a repeat fiasco of 2022, but Republican abortion messaging is totally out of sync with the nation and it could cost them again in Ohio, Montana, or Arizona.
In Ohio, a state Trump carried by 8 percentage points in 2020, Ohioans passed an Amendment for Abortion Rights on November 7, 2023.
The amendment will take effect in 30 days, per Ohio law. Upon its enactment, it would prohibit limits on abortion before fetal viability.
Any prohibitions on abortion after fetal viability – generally accepted as between 22-24 weeks gestation but would be determined by an individual’s doctor – would not apply should the pregnant person’s health or life be at risk.
Gov. Mike DeWine – who signed the six-week abortion ban into law – has long opposed abortion access. Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is also running for U.S. Senate, was among the most vocal opponents of the abortion amendment, even before it was placed on the ballot.
If LaRose is the nominee, it could cost Republicans the Senate again, so don’t rule out more Republican stupidity.
On November 10, before the amendment took effect, Rolling Stone reported Ohio Republicans Say It’s Their ‘God Given Right’ to Restrict Abortion Access
Republicans in Ohio want to undermine the will of voters who approved a measure enshrining reproductive freedom into the state’s constitution
Ohio Republicans are claiming a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights, which was approved by voters in Tuesday’s election, doesn’t actually do that — and they’re promising to take steps to prevent the legal protection of reproductive freedom in the state.
The strategy Republicans are now proposing would essentially strip Ohio’s courts of the authority to repeal existing abortion restrictions before the new amendment goes into effect on December 7.
Subverting the clear will of a 57-43 percent majority of voters, by constitutional amendment, is just plain stupid.
It appears common sense eventually took hold because Republicans decided not to enforce their “God-given rights”.
Spotlight Arizona
The Wall Street Journal notes “Arizona, which voted to elect Biden in 2020 by less than 1 percentage point, could see a three-way matchup between independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and former local TV news anchor Kari Lake, a Republican who is still contesting the results of her 2022 loss for governor.”
Sinema, elected as a Democrat switched to being an independent. She has not yet made a decisions to run. If so it could be a three-way race with highly uncertain results.
Roll Call on Kari Lake
The Roll Call says Kari Lake running in Arizona sharpens contours of 2024 Senate race
“Arizonans know exactly who Kari Lake is — and that’s why they rejected her the first time around,” Gallego said in a statement. “While she runs her same, tired playbook of undermining our democracy and pushing to ban abortion, I’m focused on addressing the very real problems that impact Arizona families, like creating good-paying jobs, securing our water future, and taking care of our veterans.”
Lake, who was recently in Washington, had what a source close to the campaign said were positive meetings with a number of Republican senators, including Conference Chairman John Barrasso of Wyoming and John Cornyn of Texas.
Arizona Democratic Party Chairwoman Yolanda Bejarano said in a statement after the launch event that Lake’s positions were not in line with Arizona on topics from abortion rights and Social Security to “putting cameras in classrooms.”
If Kari Lake is the Republican nominee in a two-way race, her radical right ideas in a purple state could easily be her doom.
Republicans would be better off with nearly anyone else.
What it Boils Down To
If Trump wins, Republicans will take the Senate. Joe Manchin’s seat flipping will suffice.
If Biden or the Democratic nominee wins, then Republicans will need to pick up a seat in Ohio, Arizona, Montana, or somewhere else.
If radical anti-abortion and stop-the steal proponents are the Republican Senate nominees in swing races, Republican can again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
So far, it appears they are heading in that direction.
The last thing this country needs is a MAGA majority in the Senate. That would be very much “BAD” news.
Mish, we need a majority of 3-4 in the Senate, since we often lose 2-3 votes on key issues.
I will be voting for Nikki Haley. If she wins the GOP nomination she easily wins the presidency and grows the party. If Trump is the nominee at best he squeaks by and continues to alienate half the country. It’s an easy choice, but Republican voters often make stupid choices.
Beyond frustrating to be a fan of either party where morons always seem to rise to the top.
Is fetal viability generally accepted as being between 22-24 weeks? That number keeps dropping and is as low as 20 weeks.
Also can the possibility and indeed likelihood of developing the transferring an unborn baby to a surrogate womb do away with the notion of a woman’s expectation that she can abort an unwanted baby? The surrogate womb might be a donor womb ( either a donor corpse kept functioning or an extracted uterus kept functioning, a living woman or an artificial womb
When I was younger IVF was a strange unexpected development that left science fiction for reality. Now we have women giving birth from transplanted uterus and/or ovaries. So whatever law, regulation or state constitutional amendment that exists might become outdated and abortion as a major issue in voting might disappear.
The 2024 election won’t change a thing. The Uniparty remains unchallenged and Trump will be stopped.
It’s a rigged game. I just read that Maine switched to a primary from a caucus because of Ron Paul’s run for president. I’ve previously read that party rules were changed to prevent him from gaining the GOP nomination. Now they apparently want to switch back. It is also obvious that Bellows is lying about her reason for dropping Trump off the Maine ballot.
For the next presidential election, i believe it is Meta, that is creating an entity called ElectionGuard, which will be just as fraudulent as NewsGuard has proven to be.
CNN recently committed news fraud on RFK Jr. during an interview with him, taking a quote that had nothing to with what CNN claimed it was related to, in order to smear him. CNN is meddling in our election. They won’t be the only one.
And nothing will change. The is country lost. Wake me up after it dissolves into several countries.
People have been saying this since the 70s.
Republicans need to be statesmen instead of egotists.
A Republican who agrees in principle to limiting abortion to the first 4 months of a pregnancy (about the size of a baseball and unable to survive outside the womb), and no use of taxpayer money except in the event of reported rape, will certainly get votes from most independent voters.
The best way to break the teacher union lock on parents is to pass a bill granting property owners and renters the right to decide which school gets their school tax.
The Green Energy initiative needs to be solved through private investment. No more tax credits or rebates. Eliminate the carve-out in existing environmental laws that have allowed California to effectively impose its environmental experiments on other states.
Secure the border with troops who are serving in Europe. Round up illegal aliens and send them back.
Leaving welfare and social programs to the states. This implicitly means laws need to be passed so states can file for bankruptcy. Private investment will provide checks and balances on welfare spending. The beauty of such a move is to reduce the size of federal government without losing services for those who really need help.
Now Highland Park – Abbott right over the target.
link to lakemchenryscanner.com
In Nov 2024 abortion might be a yesterday issue.
Agree. Inflation/economy, unemployment and migrants/illegals will be the top 3 issues.
I don’t for a minute view the possiblity of the Republicans taking the Senate as being good news. If ever there was a “do nothing” (except tweet) bunch, it’s today’s Republicans. Performance artists – more concerned with getting likes on twitter and facebook than governing. The ongoing allegiance to the biggest fraudster in history – and they know it – is the icing on the cake.
Fwiw Biden will go through his worst period this spring but by summer everything will come up roses for him. Hear me today, Understand me tomorrow and believe me later.
I don’t why the republican party cannot come to a consensus agreement on abortion like a nationwide 15 week period like in the EU These deserve to lose if they maintain their anti abortion stance, just plain stupidity. The democrats since they had all the power before the midterms could have passed a reasonable nationwide abortion law, but they didn’t. Probably b/c they knew the moron republicans would go down in flames based on their anti abortion ideology. On the other hand even if they do win all three branches they are next to fucking useless. Look at the deficit spending they approved since Bush. Only a slight improvement in policiy over the crazy woke democrat policies. Either way we will continue to circle the drain, just a little slower if Trump wins. I think DeSantis or Vivek would be more fiscally and politically conservative in their policies.
I’ve been predicting a Dem sweep and am sticking with it. Many are going to be shocked but the disparity between polls and outcomes is the widest its ever been. Trump is the gift that keeps on giving.
It’s way too early to speculate but if I were to speculate I would say Biden will not run.
You mean Blinken, right
Agreed, will put Newsome in his place. He is pretty, so the ignortant masses will fawn over him. Probably has a good chance at winning. Great, he can do to the rest of the country what he’s done to CA.
So does Caligula’s horse.
Interesting comments, but the fact is that if Donald Trump isn’t the Republican nominee, Republicans lose epically and everywhere…………Vote accordingly.
Biden can win also, in part because of the abortion issue. If Republicans ever did ban the day after pill nationally, they may lock themselves out of elections for years to come.
They already have if you look more closely at red states. Many are going to be shocked in 2024 when they see the outcome. Trump and overturning Roe has increased voter turnout everywhere in favor of democrats.
Trump will certainly be involved in recruiting Senate candidates, possibly campaigning for his picks (or against Republicans who have fallen into his disfavor).
Whatever your calculus, you need to adjust it for this certainty. 2024 is a dream Senate map for the GOP but it may completely fizzle, like it did in 2022.
Won’t matter. Still AIPAC owned…Till we get AIPAC out, we are just another Occupied Territory…
Agree with most of this analysis Mike, although it’s a sad comment on the state of the nation that “Republican messaging on abortion” is so damaging in getting elected. It’s an unborn baby unless “I don’t want it” doesn’t sound like a populace that believes in much of any higher principles. Viewed through the crass lens of politics the GOP could just shut up about abortion and let their political opponents abort their line out of existence?
I dunno… I used to be pro-life, but life experience has taught me that every life is not sacred, and death is a part of life. There are many of all ages that for a variety of reasons, need to die. It ain’t nice, but if you eat meat, and win wars, you understand.
Perhaps every life is sacred is aspirational in nature, hmm?
I think that helpless and innocent human life might elicit more
protectiveness.