Let’s discuss polling trends and momentum. Who’s ahead, Trump or Harris? 
In the past week, the Silver Bulletin shows Trump has gained ground in 9 of eleven states . Florida, Texas, Minnesota, and New Mexico don’t matter.
Trump’s Battleground Scorecard vs Week Ago
- Pennsylvania: +0.4
- Michigan: +0.8
- Wisconsin: +0.9
- North Carolina: +0.1
- Georgia: -0.3
- Arizona: +0.3
- Nevada: +0.9
That’s would be a clean sweep except for Georgia
Let’s home in on Wisconsin.
Seven Wisconsin Polls
I appreciate the fact that Nate Silver rates pollsters and takes note of historical bias. He also throws away or discounts candidate-sponsored polls.
One thing he does that I dislike (to the extent that he does) is carry on page after page. For example, Silver has 10 pages of polls on Wisconsin.
I don’t object to the number of pages. I do object to factoring in five pages of polls dating to the beginning of September.
Page three has seven polls and only one of them is for Trump. A poll by MassINC from 9/12 to 9/18 has Harris up by 6.5 points.
Silver does not toss away outliers and I am fine with that. The poll only has a very tiny influence, but I would not give it any influence at all.
I crossed out all of the polls I would exclude and purposely left in Trafalgar because R +1.1 is to Silver D +1.5.
I don’t know the bias of the pollsters I did not list. Silver has a downloadable list of all the pollsters but it is horribly out of date. The ratings I did post are from a newer subset of 36 pollsters.
Silver does not answer emails and I wonder if he even reads them. Good luck getting a question answered.
Who’s Ahead in Wisconsin?
Silver says Harris is. But he also calls it a tossup. Discarding more stale polls would put Trump a tiny bit ahead, even if the state remains a tossup.
It appears I am quibbling over tiny percentages.
But I also want to stress a belief that Silver’s model improperly accounts for momentum and keeps stale polls on far too long.
National Election
Silver has Harris ahead 52.2 to 47.6. Polymarket says Trump is ahead 54.9 to 44.7. That’s a discrepancy of 7.1 percentage points.
I think Polymarket has this correct for reasons stated: momentum and stale polls.
Also, Trump only needs to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, assuming he wins Georgia.
And if Trump wins Pennsylvania and Nevada, he can afford to lose Georgia. Michigan, and Wisconsin.
These extra parlays add up.
But there are 23 days remaining. Don’t pretend you know who will win. You don’t. Nor does anyone else.
Silver says it’s a tossup but he would rather be in Harris’ shoes. I suggest, and so does momentum, that it’s the other way around.
Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate
Meanwhile, in case you missed it, please see Republicans Increasingly Likely to Flip the Senate According to NYT/Siena Poll
The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump. It’s the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.
Nate’s a guy whose confidence outsizes his competence by a country mile.
Keep this in mind Mish. Silver is an honest dealer, but he outsmarts himself. All of his fancy formulas and math has a losing record to RCP’s simple average of polls, which is basically elementary math.
Mish has an almost morbid fascination with statistics which makes for great reading! In my simpler appraisal, I do do observe an amazingly prevailing and fast growing, DEEP sense of disapproval of this installed DNC ticket and at this point, nearly all things dem.
Regardless of general political philosophies (lib,cons, etc.), I believe the voters are absolutely primed to wreak their wrath on this last regime and everyone in it.
PROTECTTHEVOTE daught kom. This website seems to be dedicated to learning and teaching how to prevent election theft and fraud.
It has information for every state on how it’s votes are counted, and many links that show how YOU can get involved in making sure that ballots are counted fairly wherever you live.
Citizen involvement is crucial to having fair elections.
There has been a dearth of public interest in this priceless duty.
This is why so many are dissatisfied with the process today.
Amazingly, there is LOTS of room for folks to participate.
Most districts have been pitifully understaffed.
24 hour scrutiny by many is vital. Especially in swing states.
There are almost no obstacles to keep you from being a part of and a witness to our precious elections.
PLEASE check it out, and get involved if you can!
YOU are wanted and needed.
The battle is not between Trump and Kamala-but who’s able to control the mailing ballots and the voting machines. Regardless of the candidates experience, qualifications or stupidities,-democrats managed to control all legislatures and judicial branches, including the voting system.
Per Elon Musk, if Trump loose, America becomes only one party system.
Per me, Trump is already a looser because America became a banana republic.
You have to request a VBM and that is simply not happening on a level where this election can be stolen. There will be very few ballots to chase down for the Dems. Also, R’s are way, way over performing. They are banking votes and so not there won’t be that many ballots for the RNC to chase down. It’s over. The race will be called on election night.
Under covid the D stole our democracy. It will not happen at the same level in Nov. Momentum is on Trump’s side. It’s becoming a trend. It might boomerang on the dems. To counter the trend they bring 80Y Billie Boy, who lost his voice, Hillary, the regime change king and his wife Michelle to talk about women’s reproductive organs and their “freedom” to decide what to do with their own body. I am more allergic to Kamala Harris than Hillary.
Don’t county your chickens before they’re hatched.
The System will do everything in its power to ensure Trump is defeated.
We can print as many votes as we want. According to the GOP, we made fake votes in 2020. Nobody every really looked for our method, which we improved, obviously, so good luck catching us this time.
Nate Silver should call the race at the finish line:
https://www.letsrun.com/
There was a deal, but it expired. Putin renewed his attacks on Odesa’s port facilities, silos and ships that makes Ukraine rich. He attacks grain ships sailing along the black sea coast line to the Bosphorus to feed millions in China, the ME and Africa – after Ukraine’s export have reached 2019 level – in front of the BRICS conference in Kasan. In 2025 inflation will rise.
The difference between then and now is that Ukraine has sunk most of Russia’s Black Sea fleet and the rest had to find harbors away from the Crimea. Ukraine is much better armed against missiles than before so cutting off shipping will be a tall order for Russia. Today a couple of Russian corvettes were identified by Ukraine as having launched eight missiles toward Odessa. I wonder how long these corvettes will last since they are prime targets now.
Forget about minor details. Russia can launch missiles to Odessa from anywhere. In the last three months Putin renew his economic war against Ukraine bc the grain export finance Ukraine’s war. The bottom line : in 2025 CL & Grains prices might rise. // Today at 10 AM : JD Vance 3:0 Martha Raddatz on ABC/Pravda. She replaced George Stephanopoulos.
You think so? We will see but till now Russia’s performance in all areas has been underwhelming but maybe they have come up with a new way to meat wave to Victory although I doubt it. The inflection point happened a year ago and it wasn’t in Russia’s favor.
With what just happened with the starship launch, Musk is not a genius. He is a wizard.
Nate Silver trifles. Beyond LA, SF and Davis CA is red. CA might become a swing state. CA taxpayers support other swing states. 10M dems, 5M reps and 7M independent. If elected Trump/ Vance will rejuvenate CA. Trump will cleanse toxicity in the US and Iran.
And you suppose California’s shenanigans who control the voting system will let Trump/Vance win?
Man…you live in La La land.
If it’s true, and I believe it entirely is, then A Poll is literally, simply a “Snapshot” of time. As a result of my belief in the above, then most of Nate”s Polls as well as many (much more a “Democrat Issue”) other Polls, that are just a means of Propaganda, and can be tossed away as absolutely useless!
I equally reject our (not mine) MSM for parroting the Propaganda, as they continue to behave as “Shills” for the Democrat Party!
I generally look at a Poll for the Date Taken, and give it a 3 day window of relevance (the day before, the day of, and the day afterwards), Then TOSS IT!
– Silver says it’s a tossup but he would rather be in Harris’ shoes.
> Silver is an idiot, and a shill for the Democrats, so what does anyone Expect Him to say. Momentum is now Heavily in Trumps Favor.
I suggest, and so does momentum, that it’s entirely the other way around. Most recent Polls clamor for Trump and Change, and old polls show the old MSM slant Via “Harris is the Only One” that can save Democracy. That message didn’t resonate, and neither has the Harris Team, with “Most Voters” as its old, dull, boring, propaganda at its finest.
TG Americans as a whole, are not nearly as stupid as Harris and her Minions…
It turned out that JD Vance was not a handicap but an advantage.
He will make for a wonderful Vice President (a real one again), and I hope He can parlay that, right into 2 terms in Office, after his 4 years of learning the ropes first (Trump had to do that on the fly), so He will be a great asset for Vance to learn from!
Vance has nothing to learn from Trump. Vance already proved he’s mature, civilized, knowledgeable and restraint. Trump will do America a favor if he gives up and nominate Vance for presidential candidate, who at his turn should take Tulsi Gabbard as VP. I bet you with such republicans candidates if democrats still cheat the voting, America will be in revolution the next day.
When you start thinking that You or Anyone Else can’t learn anything from Trump, then you’re either extremely egotistical, or not very intelligent, and perhaps both IMO?
A very successful, smart, educated, Person. A Person who was a sitting President for America, and a very good one at that. A person admired and respected by people throughout the World.
There is Nothing to Learn from Him? Are you kidding? You are joking?
Enjoy the next 12 years of GOP utopia, congrats you’ll have 9-0 on SCOTUS too.
Toss up or being ahead is all the same at this point. The reality is that we may wake up on November 6 with a convicted felon in the White House. The whole world will laugh about us.
Harris jailed thousands of poor black men in CA for marijuana crimes, and then cackled and giggled about her own marijuana use. She also laughed and giggled about jailing parents (all of them poor, of course, and some homeless) for their children’s truancy (see Guardian article of Jan. 31st, 2019).
Correct
TIL a black woman cackling really triggers you
Which are the verge of being overturned by a higher court.
The World, HAS BEEN laughing hysterically at us for nearly 4 Years Now!!!
I would love to see that STOP!
Donald Trump was convicted on a three year-old, expired, federal misdemeanor transformed into a state felony, for the first time in U.S. legal history. And this by a Soros-funded D.A. who campaigned on charging Trump, and did so only doing after he announced for re-election. A twelve year-old can recognize this for what it was: selective use of the justice system as a weapon against a political opponent. Sadly, the deliberately ignorant cannot.
The TDS is strong in this one. I don’t care how much someone dislikes Trump they should be enraged by the weaponization of the legal system against a political enemy. The libtards just think the end justifies the means. It’s ok until someone hurts their feelings. Then they go on rioting rampages. Facts don’t matter anymore to libtards. BTW I do not like Trump but will vote for him, I think of it as a vote for Vance.
“BTW I do not like Trump but will vote for him, I think of it as a vote for Vance”.
I had not heard it said that way, but I agree! I am actually voting for Both! I liked how are Country was run by Trump, and the successes that he has, and there were many. Our Country did well, and was starting to shine, when Covid was introduced, er. Just oddly showed up, I mean came upon this earth, invented and stored for later use, and finally arrived. Yeah, that last one is it!!
I think Vance will do spectacularly after 4 years of a good Trump run once again, and the knowledge it will be carried forward.
I think for many, We are beginning to “love Our Country” Once Again!!!
Leaving out the fact that the biz records charge transformed into felony required that it was done in furtherance of another crime, yet there were no other crimes that were charged, let along convicted in order for that to happen. Shear speculation. And the judge’s instructions said that jurors did not have to agree on the myriad speculations presented, as long as they each picked one, enough to convict. Beyond absurd. A kangaroo would be ashamed. It will be overturned.
The ‘whole world’ meaning who exactly? Europe? As if they have anything to talk about.
The USA is the World and don’t you forget it.
You sure are a flag waver. Disgusting.
You are a zero.
I simply dismiss with the polls and check the betting odds on the Real Clear site. Currently the averaged odds are 53.7 to 44.9 with Trump being the favorite
If Dems are starting to figure out that Harris is headed for defeat, they should organize a write-in campaign for Biden.
#WriteInBiden
And at least one more assassination attempt.
If democrats will realize that Trump win, they either create a crises before election or they will just neutralize Trump by blaming Iran.
Trump 55%, Harris 45% in latest London betting, which has called every election since 1866 but two: Truman beat Dewey in 1948 and Trump beat Hillary in 2016, where she was up 9 points in every poll on today’s date in 2016. Just one reason why no educated person pays any attention to polls whatsoever.
Especially Nate Silver.
2016 he shutdown his site before the election was over and never called it for Trump. All I need to know about Nate Silver.
Hopefully Trump wins and we can start enacting Big Beautiful Tariffs and get rid of income tax for the working class.
When China sneezes
Since the beginning of the year, the price of iron ore has fallen significantly. In January, it was US$144 per tonne: now it is about US$100 and is projected by ANZ Bank analysts to soon reach US$60 amid falling Chinese demand and increasing global production.
Gas prices are also projected to fall as a result of over-supply, while Australia’s nickel sector has collapsed under the weight of low-cost production from Indonesia. Its lithium producers have been devastated by slowing global EV demand, and rare earth miners crippled as a result of China flooding the market.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3281990/australias-failure-reinvest-mineral-wealth-long-term-growth-exposed-amid-shifting-economy?module=AI_Recommended_for_you_In-house&pgtype=homepage
Nate Silver is a Dem / Big Tech polling shill. He’s embedded into The System, working overtime to promote Comrade Kamala.
FYI – The System has to anoint some polling guru that will show Harris is ahead nationally no matter. This is a requirement to cover up all of the illegal swaying of the election the Dems plan to do. He can’t let people think Trump is up 10 points, otherwise when Harris somehow wins that would create TOO much WTF attention???
Dems booted Biden because he wasn’t sharp. Now that everybody’s seen Harris, it looks like they’re gonna have to put Biden back in.
I would strongly suggest, that people don’t listen to the ones that made the massive mistake, and follow their lead again. Unless they are looking for another massive mistake, or He is simply the best they have to offer, maybe true, but sad, and they simply have “No Choice” as incompetence is all they have to pick from…
1. Biden, NOT!
2. Harris, NOT!
3. Waltz, NOT!
What’s the Party to do, PUNT!!!
I don’t pay any attention to Nate Silver. Doesn’t he just average out polls and pretend he has some nonexistent “model”? Most media polls will move “right” as the election nears, so Silver will move with them.