Predictit Bet on Bloomberg
Previously I made a bet on Predictit for Joe Biden to become President.
For Biden, I only had to pay $0.07 to collect $1.00 and I liked those odds and still do. But you can now buy Biden for $0.06.
Today I made another bet (this one on Michael Bloomberg) at a much higher price $0.23 to collect $1.00. This will be my last US presidential election bet.
I bet the max on both candidates $850. About $750 of the Bloomberg bet has filled so far. Fills have been trickling in for over an hour.
$850 is not serious money but I am following the rules.
Predictit Operations
I don’t like the way Predictit is setup. The fills are coming in as few as 1 share at a time. My biggest block was 1222 shares.
They have no online chat. There is no way to cancel an unfilled order and there is no way to up the bid to get filled. I posted a question and they will get back within 24 hours. Not very timely.
With the fill I have so far, if either wins, I make a substantial profit percentage-wise. If neither wins I have a total loss.
This post is on the bet and the Predictit process. When they reply to my questions I will likely post an addendum update with their response.
Rationale
I believe Bloomberg’s chances of winning the nomination are way underestimated. I also believe he would beat Trump if he gets the nomination.
I will explain my rationale shortly.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
The Dems clean sweep is enticing. To be a maker. November 1st evening.
What is better to invest or bet on the winner? Looking from which side to look, if you are fond of long savings, then of course the first option is suitable for you, and after a couple of weeks with the right purchase, you will be the holder of an expensive shareholding link to tipleader.com but this is if you know everything about excise taxes …. What a little even me is misleading, then from the very beginning I myself am a fan of instant income, delivered, received.
how’s that max bet working out for ya mish? post a pic of your dash, and write an update cowboy!
Say goodbye to $850…
I bet my next door neighbor $100 at 2 to 1 for me that Trump loses to the Dem candidate.
“I’m shocked. Shocked to find there’s gambling going on here.”
I have no account there but if I did I like Mayor Pete at $0.06.
Yes I believe the American people have learned that Democrats in DC 80% of the bureaucracy are crooked thieves (the down fall of Biden is an example). This information was learned via other media (twitter) as an example. Thus TRUMP will be reelected despite the Pravda regular media.
Not one single chance in hell is the single most unpopular sitting president in our history going to be elected with or without cheating. The democrats are extremely motivated, and this time around I think even some of the Sanders borg will actually vote for the democrat. Nah, what was I thinking. Seriously, the fascists in DC are going to lose in a major landslide UNLESS Sanders is the nominee. Because even I would vote for a fascist like Trump and go along with his low information proto Nazi supporters than vote for Hugo Chavez…. I mean Bernie Sanders.
Bloomberg will be the darling of the media, only because the ad sales department will kiss his ass to keep the spend up. He’s buying every ad block on every news program in Colorado. This is forcing other candidates to step up and blow through their wad into Super Tuesday. But even though I’d be long CMCSA, T CBS.A and FOX into the election this is probably the swan song for big media conglomerates as their influence is likely to wane as their viewers die.
If you want to bet some more Mish, you know how to contact me. I’ll take the other side of that bet and I will not ask you for odds.
Sorry that Predictit is taking so long to fill your order. I suggest just flushing your money down the toilet – much faster.
No political difference between trump and bloomberg or biden.
How about an adult who isn’t influenced by money and power? Tulsi Gabbard
That question is an oxymoron. All humans are partly influenced by money and power. There is no such thing as an unselfish human for life.
Tulsi Gabbard is only 1of 3 who didn’t vote for Trump impeachment –
Gabbard is Supported by the Right wing Hindu organization from India(RSS). Modi is the Political face (BJP – Bhartiya Janta Party is a Political wing of RSS)
RSS = Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, abbreviated as RSS or Sang
All in the Family…..The American Sangh’s affair with Tulsi Gabbard. – The Caravan Magazine from India. link to caravanmagazine.in
But Since Trump allowed Modi to take over Kashmir(despite 1947 historic agreement with the majority muslims in the state – article 370), Modi’s also pandering to Trump( a rally in Houston – Howdy Modi – and invited Trump several times to India – Trump is visiting AGAIN next week) Indians appear quite confident that President Trump has a very good shot at winning the upcoming Presidential election. I just spent 4 weeks in India, criss-crossing the nation. Nobody seems to be treating the visit as a “lame-duck,” said Rick Rossow, Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS, to CNBC.link to cnbc.com
Unless you elect a full blown monk from Tibet, who just meditates the whole time and has unusual answers to all policy questions etc.
I often say Sanders is the LAST human being on the planet I would vote for, and that I would vote Trump before Sanders, but I should be saying Sanders or Gabbard. That hosebag is less a democrat than even Sanders which is not at all. The very fact that there are some here that would support her proves that, as well as indicating that Money Maven comments are RIDDLED with GRU trolls getting paid good rubles to sit back and create division. Tulsi Gabbard is such a lying bitch I would vote PALIN before her.
I agree with Mish on this one. You may lose, but of what’s available, I would do the same.
I don’t bet on these things, because I never looked into it and it is such small dosh, however just prior to the Iowa Caucus, I was guided by some newstory to Predictit and thought, if I was putting money on any of these odds the one that stands out is Bloomberg.
I thought it was on Democrat nomination though, not on Presidency.
I don’t remember what the price was pre-Iowa.
Bloomberg is not getting nominated. Being a billionaire might be enough for the cretinous right, but not for the democrats.
No way Mini-Mike can beat trump.
He’s 5’7. Hasn’t been a president under 6 feet in decades (since before TV), maybe not since before 1900. Optics matter way more than Mish thinks they do.
Plus, why would America vote for an even older white Billionaire? Looking forward to seeing his rationale but if it involves just throwing money at things then it’s not much of a rationale.
Jimmy Carter claimed to be 5’10”, which means he was 5’9″
We had TV in the 1970s.
Hasn’t been one this obese, either. Mike needs to drive some hamberders into that gut.
Twentieth century presidents:
27 26 Theodore Roosevelt 5 ft 10 in 178 cm [10][23]
20 27 William Howard Taft 5 ft 11 1⁄2 in 182 cm [25]
24 28 Woodrow Wilson 5 ft 11 in 180 cm [10][30]
14 29 Warren G. Harding 6 ft 0 in 183 cm [10]
27 30 Calvin Coolidge 5 ft 10 in 178 cm [10]
20 31 Herbert Hoover 5 ft 11 1⁄2 in 182 cm [26]
5 32 Franklin D. Roosevelt 6 ft 2 in 188 cm [10]
32 33 Harry S. Truman 5 ft 9 in 175 cm [10]
26 34 Dwight D. Eisenhower 5 ft 10 1⁄2 in 179 cm [10]
10 35 John F. Kennedy 6 ft 1 in 185 cm [20]
2 36 Lyndon B. Johnson 6 ft 3 1⁄2 in 192 cm [6][7][8]
20 37 Richard Nixon 5 ft 11 1⁄2 in 182 cm [10][24]
14 38 Gerald Ford 6 ft 0 in 183 cm [10][24]
31 39 Jimmy Carter 5 ft 9 1⁄2 in 177 cm [10][24]
10 40 Ronald Reagan 6 ft 1 in 185 cm [10]
5 41 George H. W. Bush 6 ft 2 in 188 cm [10][14]
5 42 Bill Clinton 6 ft 2 in 188 cm [10][14][15][16][17][18]
I say, Harding and Ford BARELY made it at 6’0″ flat, and FDR should not count since he “peaked at 6’2″ in his twenties but thereafter was confined to a wheelchair and even with braces never hit 6 feet again. And if Donald Trump is 6’3” I will eat his size 90 orange underpants.
Because the only thing better than getting to vote for an old New York billionaire for President is getting a choice of old New York billionaires for President
LOL Quatloo, funny.
Nobody like a traitor.
Even when he is on your side.
Bloomberg could possibly beat Trump in New York City – if this were a local election there.
Bloomberg has never even held a state-wide office. Never ran for Governor or Senate – probably because he knew his support outside of New York City (very large Jewish voting bloc there) would be negligible.
I will not argue that he is not the best candidate in the current (weak) field of Democrats, but on a national level – running against an incumbent President, no less – he will prove to be nothing more than another McGovern or Mondale.
If he were a normal candidate, I would agree. But he isn’t. Reportedly he is willing to throw 2-3 billion at this. Nothing like this has ever happened before.
Moreover, he is almost certainly the Hail Mary anti-Trump candidate in order to save the status quo which Team Trump will successfully undermine if he wins a 2nd term. His ‘side’ is extremely powerful in all socio-economic sectors. They could crash the economy or start a war if it helps get him in (not to mention being able to out-trick Team Trump’s voter machine team who out-tricked HRC last time around – what could she do, complain that her fraud was thwarted?).
Anyway. It will all play out soon enough. (And I still think Trump is going to win in a landslide, but Bloomberg’s role is going to be BIG and this election is going to be a real humdinger…)
You can also sell your position (or part of it) before the election.
It’s interesting you could buy Bernie, Buttie, Bloombergy, Biden, and Klobutcher for a total of .62c to win $1. Or you could buy “no trump” for about .45c to win $1.
Yup, Bloomberg is gonna be formidable. And an exciting battle: the establishment globalists versus the economic nationalists, the ‘system’ versus the people. And if money can buy an election that way, there will probably never be another real one until the Republic is officially replaced by some sort of technocracy modeled on China’s One Party Republic model.
Maybe one of you should ask a DEMOCRAT. Bloomberg has about as much chance of being nominated as Sheldon Adelson. And hey, they did go to school together right? Seriously though, he is the oldest of all of them, even Sanders. I would not touch him with YOUR ballot.
We’ll see. Both Democrat and GOP are PINO (Parties in Name Only). If Bloomberg ends up on top, he’ll do much better than Hillary did and she came within 120,000 votes of winning the Electoral College. (Trump’s ‘landslide win’ was much tighter than the 306 score made it look.)
The point being, most people will go along with whoever is at the top of the ticket. And the second point being: it’s mainly all theater anyway. I don’t trust a single aspect of US elections including but not limited only to:
media coverage
polls
vote counts
Party platforms
Presidency or Presidents
Any of the agencies (DOJ, CIA, FBI, DHS, FED, etc. ad infinitum).
Elections are theater.
Presidents are puppets.
Voters are saps.
I agree with the first paragraph, but will point out that PINO is more of a GOP liability than democrat, just because it has sold it’s conservative soul to Donald Trump (and by extension V. Putin) in order to leverage their minority party status into power. Meanwhile the democrats still have a thriving debate over the direction of the party as demonstrated by the wildly differering candidates. Elderly, Jewish, socialist, gay, females, blacks, even an Asian, all ran, there were mainstream, far fringe, and republicans in democrats clothing.
And yes, 2016 was excruciatingly close, a fact lost on the GOP which has fooled itself into thinking that a win is a win no matter what, they went to govern is a style that simply does not recognize that they are indeed the minority party, and that they have allowed Trump to commit crimes both moral and legal while looking the other way and even putting their stamp of approval on the blight more than once means that they simply will have pretty much no chance in November. If nothing else demographics will be an insurrmountable WALL! Their only hope of a win this time is either to blatantly cheat or hope for a critically divided left, and that would only happen if Sanders is nominated.
As far as trust in the election I hear you, and am sad about it as well, who would have thought the day would arrive in America where the voters have little or no confidence in our vote? It has to have deep and dark consequences for our future.
But, as far as going along with the top of the ticket, that might be true in the GOP because the rank and file do understand that there are more liberal voters than conservative, they unlike the media and party apparatchiks have not glossed over the fact that Hillary got well more than 3 million more votes than Trump, and they know though they will not admit this EVER that had the shoe been on the other foot and Hillary won the EC in spite of a clear popular vote victory for Trump that it would be them howling rather than trying to rationalize that. Their only shot at power is strict adherance to obedience and unity. A lesson NOT lost on democrats, which is why I just cannot understand the party allowing Sanders to run as a democrat YET AGAIN! He is a spoiler, unelectable all he can do is cost us as he did in 2016. Had he never been a factor we would not be having this conversation.
Democrat – Trump wins if Bloomberg runs as an independent.
Wait for my analysis
You may not agree with it, but you will understand it.
Anyone running as an independent on the lefterly side will steal votes from the democrat and possibly allow Trump to win and by the way that is the ONLY way Trump wins, that is if Sanders is nominated or anyone (larger than a Mayor Pete) runs as an indy. But then there is always the possibility that a Romney might run as an Indy also, that would sink Trump for certain.
link to youtube.com
And Bloomberg runs as a Democrat or Independent?