Predictit Bet on Bloomberg

Previously I made a bet on Predictit for Joe Biden to become President.

For Biden, I only had to pay $0.07 to collect $1.00 and I liked those odds and still do. But you can now buy Biden for $0.06.

Today I made another bet (this one on Michael Bloomberg) at a much higher price $0.23 to collect $1.00. This will be my last US presidential election bet.

I bet the max on both candidates $850. About $750 of the Bloomberg bet has filled so far. Fills have been trickling in for over an hour.

$850 is not serious money but I am following the rules.

Predictit Operations

I don't like the way Predictit is setup. The fills are coming in as few as 1 share at a time. My biggest block was 1222 shares.

They have no online chat. There is no way to cancel an unfilled order and there is no way to up the bid to get filled. I posted a question and they will get back within 24 hours. Not very timely.

With the fill I have so far, if either wins, I make a substantial profit percentage-wise. If neither wins I have a total loss.

This post is on the bet and the Predictit process. When they reply to my questions I will likely post an addendum update with their response.

Rationale

I believe Bloomberg's chances of winning the nomination are way underestimated. I also believe he would beat Trump if he gets the nomination.

I will explain my rationale shortly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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