According to Predictit, Trump’s chances of winning IA, OH, and GA haves slipped to 54%, 56%, and 58% respectively.
Not even Texas is a lock.
It’s Early, But
OK, it’s still early, so they say. But it is getting later and later.
The election is Tuesday, November 3.
That’s about 4.5 months away.
Early Polls
The above compiled by 538 as noted on June 12 in Latest Swing State Polls Look Good For Biden.
Trump is barely ahead in Texas!
270-to-Win
Very Biased 270 Map
270-to-Win has the map as shown above.
In recent polls, Biden is ahead in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
It would be OK for 270-to-Win to label those states as tossups if it also had Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio as tossups as well.
In the Electoral College, Iowa has 6 votes, Ohio 18, and Georgia 16.
270-to-Win vs Predictit
Even with that biased map, 270-to-Win has Biden ahead 248-204.
In contrast, Predictit has Biden ahead 334-204.
Understanding Trump’s Very Narrow Path
In the Predict map, Biden could lose Iowa, Georgia, and Ohio, plus Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona, yet still beat Trump 274-264.
Read that last sentence until it sinks in how narrow Trump’s path to victory really is.
It is not impossible for Trump to win. There are still 4.5 months left.
Because of the time factor, I have Biden a 65-35 or so favorite.
Too much can still happen, and if it does, I will change my forecast.
But the passage of time for Trump to do something meaningful is sliding away.
Failed Tactics
Trump has doubled down with efforts to shore up his base. But Trump’s base is not his problem.
Swing voters in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Pennsylvania won Trump the election.
They are breaking strongly for Biden.
Betting Odds Changed With Photo-Op Stunt
Trump lost the lead following his disastrous photo-op bible stunt in the wake of the George Floyd murger by a Minnesota police officer.
Following the photo-op incident I commented Something Changed for the Better: Trump’s Bubble Just Shattered
Numerous ranking ex-military officers and ranking Republicans spoke out against Trump.
Colin Powell, George Bush, Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush were among them.
For details, please see The Trump Spotlight Shifts to Colin Powell.
Preposterous Tweet
Trump slid further following a ridiculous Tweet in which Trump Defended Police Who Cracked a 75-Year Old Man’s Head.
Inane Tariffs
Don’t forget Trump screwed many farmers (think Iowa and farmbelt states) with inane tariffs in a trade war Trump did not win.
Musical Tribute
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUODdPpnxcA
Slip Slidin’ Away
Trump’s base is going nowhere. They would kiss his feet if he screwed a pooch.
Similarly, the Never-Trumpers would not vote for Trump even if Biden forgot his own name.
The battle is with swing voters and Trump has done nothing but alienate them.
Time is running out.
The nearer the destination the more Trump is Slip Slidin’ Away.
Mish
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Biden will fall apart when the debates start and he has to get out of his basement. Trump may iriate many voters but he had improved the economy prior to the coronavirus. The question for voters will be, do you want someone who is a bragart or someone that is close to being in a nursing home. Pretty easy choice for me.
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Jack,
I’m 72 and a lifelong Republican and voted for Trump in 2016. But I’m disgusted with the cavalier and ridiculous way that he has handled the Covid situation. Requiring face masks and social distancing seems a small price to pay to make older people, even those like me with no comorbidity issues, feel safe enough to shop at grocery stores, etc. It makes me sick to think of a Biden or worse being elected, but I am resigned to it now. To prepare, I have exercised all of my remaining company stock options to minimize the impact of the confiscatory taxes that are sure to be coming down the pike.
There is certainly electoral math in choosing an African American VP — it’s called turnout. I can’t say that it’s the right electoral math, but there doesn’t seem to be really compelling electoral math behind any of the other choices (other than the obvious impact on the female vote of choosing a woman).
Trump campaign raises 14 million bucks this past Sunday. Doesn’t look like he is losing much support to me.
Something seems to be medically wrong with Trump–look at the video of his attempt to take a drink of water at the podium of the West Point speech and then a look at the walk down the ramp.
Yeah. It’s called stress. He has a lot on him at the moment.
Looks like covid is gonna run wild in Florida.
Florida’s a crowded state. And as a native Floridian I can tell you that we demand to exercise our God-given right to be drunk and stupid. We don’t need no stinkin’ masks and hand-washin. Yes, we have a lot of old people, but they’re tough. And mostly drunk and stupid too.
Biden should make a few campaign pitches every so often but stay completely out of the limelight. Don’t debate Trump at all, just ignore him. People have already made up their minds. It’s over.
“Colin Powell, George Bush, Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush were among them.” AKA The Deplorables. I wouldn’t want to be associated this filth for all the tea in China.
Trump may have done his darnedest to alienate as many voters as possible over the past few months; but it’s not inconceivable that at least part of the relative popularity decline vs Biden, comes on account of the latter thus far having been able to largely stay out of the limelight. Letting Trump destroy himself while quietly watching from the sidelines.
As the elections draws closer, Biden can’t rely on that strategy forever. And once he, too, has no choice but to step into the arena and show what he’s made of, people may quickly find he really ain’t all that either…. Crazy may no longer look as bad when directly compared to senile, as it does in isolation.
Trump is both crazy and senile. Did you see him try to say “Douglas Macarthur”? And then stumble his old-man walk down the ramp?? At least Biden is a person of character and principle, and not an unrepentant perv. Besides, if Biden wins, then Don can get his wish and do Ivanka.
To be perfectly honest Trump’s policies have really hurt the rural parts of the Midwest. My brother and I own a 1400 acre farm in eastern Nebraska, set up as an LLC in Iowa, and we and all the farmers around us have been hit hard for the last 3 years from his trade war with China. And now China is avoiding the US entirely for its farm resources like soybeans, which now come from Brazil. We’re projecting we won’t be able to sell this year, with the 4th of July being typically the peak in prices, thus will have to put in storage and wait until we can lock a price on the futures market.
If any of these farmers supported him in 2016 in a swing state then they got the government they wanted. Unlike most of the rest of the country whose votes dont determine the winner, swing states like Iowa have a huge burden. That may be changing with more states swinging to the middle from the right in 2020.
Thanks Rick.
Just out of curiosity, and if you care to disclose, who are you for, who did you vote for last time, and what do you neighbors think?
Welcome to Balkanized America; Pat Buchanan was right. Democrat success depends on cobbling together enough minorities and special interest groups to win, not lead.
They will almost certainly do it in November, leaving 65 million extremely pissed and disillusioned Republicans in their wake, facing another eight years of Basement Biden, followed by whatever leftist loser Joe’s handlers pick for us as president.
Leaves me feeling really good about our prospects.
What a goat rodeo. Fortunately, there’s still enough of Minneapolis and Chicago left to burn after the not guilty verdict at Derek Chauvin’s trial, so there’s that.
The printer is going to go brrrr constantly whether we decide to apply red or blue lipstick to this pig.
This balkanization is actually the desired outcome, we’re supposed to be at each others’ throats so we don’t stop to notice who keeps getting richer as the country disintegrates. Buchanan is in his 80s and should have realized this long ago.
Tengen has it right . . . the Republican strategy is to get 99.999% of the Fascists out to vote and suppress enough 50% or more of the low-income votes so the Dear Leader can win with the support of 26% of voters.
Not a Trump supporter here, but can’t wait to tell my Republican friends that 99.99% of them are fascists, regardless of their personal views; Who knew?
I could say similar of the state of politics/economy/society of various western countries, but here it is of the US:
Has anyone got any better idea of how things should be to aim for for their country, and I mean pragmatic do-able direction that is more than superficial show ?
All I see is a very negative mood everywhere and no real offer of what will provide relief from how everything stands. Just blaming politicians for this does not count btw, I mean forward someone who would realistically be able to get elected and lead the country to something better if you think they have the/an answer, but otherwise representatives are no more than that – they at best represent the state of a country but are not ultimately responsible for it being the way it is, their failure to satisfy being also equally the insatiable nature of its society.
I just say it because that is how it comes across from outside, like the country is out of ideas…not the leader, the country.
?
Thats a good point. That’s what is needed and a population willing to move forward.
Many hoped Trump would be a breath of fresh air/idea’s that would get the US going in a better direction, not sure why, and maybe he could have made some changes if he hadn’t been hamstrung, c@$k blocked and undermined by so many…for years…by seemingly the whole US intelligence community. F@#king unreal…
But it looks like the US is going down. Its been going down since at least the Kennedy assassination. They said that was the Russians too.
Effectively, when comes right down to it, all we’re really doing, is sitting here waiting for the Jihadis to come rescue us.
The US is a young country and was always a grand experiment. America will be fine and lead again in due time. It isnt the politicians fault that some people couldn’t compete and adjust to globalization. That’s what Trump really tapped into but the truth is he has no good answers and has put more of his supporters in a worse position then they were in 4 years ago.
“It isnt the politicians fault that some people couldn’t compete and adjust to globalization”
Yes it is. Or if not the politicians per se, then the political “system” which allow them to do what, and all, they did and do.
An official policy of The Fed and government robbing productive people of their capital, in order to hand it to idle, incompetent rank nothings who can nothing, understand nothing and do nothing; can not, period, fail to have the effect of making productive Americans less competitive.
Take a truck driver’s truck away, sell it to some Chinese guy, and hand the proceeds to some idle halfwit who couldn’t drive a truck if you put a gun to his head so he could pretend that he “made money” off his “home,” and that truck driver is, tah-dah, suddenly an awful lot less competitive at trucking than he used to be. Strange how that works…..
Globalization was going to happen either way.
By the way, your analogies are truly bizarre and have no basis in reality.
We need to cut taxes and regulations on business! And get rid of gay marriage. That’ll fix everything.
“We need to cut taxes and regulations on business! And get rid of gay marriage. That’ll fix everything.”
What we need to do, is not “cut”, but eliminate taxes on business. As well as on any other actor. And yes, cut regulations massively. To around what they were in what was later to become the Wyoming Territory, back when Jefferson was President of an America which still retained some aspirational qualities.
And also, to get rid of any awareness on part of any government at all, who “marries” who. If someone wants to marry 9 guys, 12 kids, a few dogs and worms, a shotgun and a lawn tractor, and he can find a minister to entertain his wish, none of that is any business of any possible legitimate government whatsoever.
As far as I’m concerned, the only question is whether or not Nunes and Trump will take the whole Republican party down with them. Look at how ridiculous these bozos are. Repudiate now or Romney becomes the defacto leader.
The fact that Trump had a rally in Tulsa tells you he is in trouble. Trump will be in Texas trying to defend there next. Biden may spend the least amount of money of any modern day President when this is done.
Where are Bloomberg’s billions when you need them?
The money is there if he needs it but right now Trump keeps digging his own political grave. Biden will gladly attend the funeral for free.
The Dummycrates better have a backup plan when Biden has a brain fart.
Glenn Beck is very sorry for Donald Trump
Iowa could be sound enough. If Trump really wants to clench Iowa he needs to double down on increasing ethanol production, and give certain technical relief from EPA rules. That will take care of most problems here. I express no opinion of anywhere else.
MISH will go down as the Nate Silver of the 2020 election cycle.
How did his all in Michael Bloomberg bet do?!?!?!
Barr’s investigation could and should be a huge blow to Biden and the Dems. This should not be overlooked, that attempted coup of an elected president should not be forgotten. Biden and Obama were right there in the thick of it no matter how well they covered they’re tracks.
Whereas all Trump’s efforts may play well with his base that is not the section of the population that he needs to win over. His actions are Actually undermining any efforts to win over the swing states where the November election will be decided. Trump is a one trick pony and one term President.
This election is the worst EVER!!
1 pile of dog shit and 1 pool of dog diarrhea with worms swimming in it.
Vote for a 3rd party or write someone in.
This isnt 2016. Paul Ryan is now on the board of Fox News which means Trump is toast. I think I see why Ryan resigned now. He effectively decided it was not worth fighting Trump out in the open. Advertisers are walking away as we get closer to the conventions.
Trump is simply following in Obama’s footsteps,spend 4 years pretty doin nothin (rack up dept)but act (pretend)like you’re gettin stuff done.Worked like a charm for Barak,he easily won reelection and spent the next 4 years doin what he was good at….Nothing,Trump hope that secret sauce will work for him!!
We are headed for a $35T federal debt soon. That says all you need to know about tax cuts paying for themselves.
Both Trump and Obama had Houses working against them
I was surprised to see a story this week where Trump said something about how he would just “do other things” if he loses in November. It’s a rarity to see him acknowledge the possibility of defeat. Q fans were probably aghast to see that.
It’s not surprising that both candidates already accused the other of trying to steal the election and Biden even said something about using the military to remove Trump if he refuses to vacate after losing. The rhetoric is already way over the top and it’s only June.
We all have five more months to prepare before a large chunk of the country goes bonkers, no matter what the result is.
In 2016 he was set to go to Scotland after election day to escape seeing Hillary celebrate. He was stunned he had to change his plans. I would be shocked if he didnt try to subvert the election this year by any means possible. I certainly expect a challenge in the courts. He still doesnt look like he will willingly leave the White House even if he loses.
Only a small percentage of people wont accept the outcome. This election doesnt feel like it will be close.