Georgia Regular Senate Election Changing Odds
I believe those odds for Ossoff are way too low for many reasons, the first being the polls themselves.
Second, momentum is clearly on the side of Ossoff.
Third, overall momentum is is on the side of Democrats.
If Biden wins Georgia as expected, the coattails will help Ossoff.
Perdue Withdraws From Debate
Note that after After a bitter debate in Georgia, Senator David Perdue cancels third face off with Jon Ossoff.
Ossoff Calls Perdue a Crook
“Perhaps Senator Perdue would have been able to the Covid-19 pandemic if you hadn’t been fending off multiple investigations for insider trading. It’s not just that you are a crook Senator, you are attacking the health of the people that you represent. You did say Covid-19 was no deadlier than the flu. You did say there would be no significant uptick in cases. all the while you were looking at your own assets.”
I do not know enough about the charges.
But I do know a good debate argument when I hear one and see one. And that was a grand slam.
Coupled with Biden’s momentum, I am willing to go out on a limb and say 60-40 Ossoff.
Georgia Special Election
I started writing this post a couple days ago but never finished it. It’s better off this way because I was then unaware of the explosive debate above.
At that time Nate Silver had the special election odds as Republican (either Collins or Loeffler) as a 56-44 odds-on winner ober Democrat Warnock.
Now I see Silver favors Warnock 64-36. I think that is about right, but perhaps a tad high.
I last discussed this on October 15 when Silver had the Republican as a 72-28 favorite.
Senate Surprises Flashback
On September 27, I wrote Senate Surprises: What to Look Out For in the Election
538 expects Georgia to vote for Trump by a 50.7 to 48.5 margin.
That puts Georgia in play for Biden. It also puts Warnock in play in the January 5 election.Silver’s 17% estimate is thus way too low. The special election will also be influenced by turnout in January adding more uncertainty.
I give Warnock a 40% chance, more than double Silver’s estimate.
I rated Warnock over double Silver but was still too low.
Fearless Forecast
In my Fearless Forecast on October 13, I saw it this way.
I expect all three [Georgia, Iowa, Ohio] to break for Biden unless he makes a major gaffe in the next debate, catches Covid, or some other unexpected event happens.
On October 21, in Spotlight Iowa: Monmouth University Has Biden 4 Points Ahead.
I expected the polls to change for Biden, and Iowa just did.
Silver waits for the polls, I will take a reasonable shot when I see one.
I expected the Monmouth poll and there it is.
Random Noise
Silver just flipped again on Iowa, and has been going back and forth for a week. Iowa is again in Trump’s column.
I solidly disagree and may revisit Iowa soon. But now Silver has Ohio in the Biden camp.
When you change your mind every day, or even sometimes twice a day you are changing your mind on noise.
That’s what we have: noise.
Models Can’t Think!
Models cannot and do not do what I just did above. That is take a look at a debate in which Perdue was clearly slaughtered, then make a judgement call on it.
Nor do they properly look at momentum.
There are huge error possibilities in tossing aside polls or predicting them.
I have the same criticism of the GDPNow economic model. It cannot think or make value judgements.
When weather is a factor it cannot make adjustments. When Covid hit, the numbers were so screwy the GDPNow model was programmed to discard the numbers as outliers (they could not possibly be correct).
There are clear errors being a slave to models.
Humans Overthink!
The flip side of the coin, and it’s an important one is that humans overthink.
I have a huge collection of all the amusing things, people have said would matter in this election that history will show didn’t.
People believe all kinds of things matter that won’t.
I will post the collection after the election, and some of them will have you laughing.
The beauty of a model like Nate Silver’s and Pat Higgins’ GDPNow Models is they don’t overthink.
Silver waits for the polls, GDPNow waits for the economic data.
I am very happy for Silver’s forecasts and I find them helpful for my own thinking. The same applies to GDPNow.
It’s easy to poke fun at models, but I think Silver is brilliant
But as I explained to a couple of friends recently, I add no value if all I do is parrot his calls.
Mish
From USA Today: “Perdue is among a group of senators who came under fire after records found that they engaged in stock trading after a Jan. 24 briefing on the coronavirus pandemic. Almost 100 trades selling around $825,000 in stocks and buying $1.8 million more were made on Perdue’s behalf.” This while he’s trying to kill the Affordable Care Act.
Hi Mish –
Ohio is firmly in Trump’s column. From Columbus north (including Cleveland) Trumps signs out number Bidens 15 – 1. There are even three times as many personally purchased Trump Flags as there are Biden Signs.
Michigan is no different. There is a joke going around Michigan that if the election were held today based on yard signs alone that “Trump” would be first, “Firewood for Sale” would be second and “Biden” 3rd.
Gonna be a lot of crying and nashing of teeth next Week!
I know!!! I live in Orange County CA and all the signs here are for Trump! No Biden signs. Clearly California belongs to Trump!
I probably wouldn’t go that far for California.
It’s interesting though how things can look differently to those that are actually on the ground in an area versus those who are evaluating from afar. We all have bias that filters what we see.
Your sarcasm detractor doesn’t seem to be operating…
Caught the sarcasm but let it go.
Well, if your sarcasm detector checks out fine, you may want to have your self-awareness detector looked at. I think it needs calibration.
Mr Purple – you’re probably right cause I can’t tell whether is your mouth or asshole that’s flapping in the wind .
All you Trump cultists deserve is the asshole. Eat my shit.
I grew up in OH and still go back frequently to see family. It’s a hard state to predict but as has been discussed here recently signs/flags are no longer a good indicator.
Simply put, the vast majority of Biden voters don’t really like him. They feel a bit slimy supporting him and therefore don’t advertise it. While Trump does have supporters like this on his side too, they are outnumbered by extremely vocal Q types who believe in 4D chess. They’re convinced Trump is not only the right choice for POTUS, but perhaps the greatest American of all time.
Personally I would never put up a sign for either of these duds and it makes me wonder about the people who do. It’s one thing to hold your nose and vote for a lesser evil, but loudly proclaiming it for all to hear is kind of sad.
A prediction is simply an algorithm based on inclusion of certain variables, whether by computer or human brain.
Time will tell whose algorithm was more accurate — Nate Silver’s or Mish’s.
Brass Tacks: Most people are pretty ignorant when it comes to sophisticated topics, but they are not that dumb, especially with the two Georgia senators who are blatantly traded stocks based on inside information after receiving the COVID briefings, blind trusts, financial advisors, blah, blah. The transactions don’t lie , those two are on their way out, greed got the best of them, enjoy the money guy/girl.
We know Texas’s day was coming for a long time. Is there a seismic shift that is further breaking up the GOP stronghold in the south with Virginia already long gone…
Can the GOP win national elections if the south is divided?
This to me is one of the most interesting questions this election will bring forth, what is the actual future for the GOP? The GOP after Trump seems to think they can transition to some fiscal austerity message again as they did under Obama, but they are severely underestimating the damage done during the Trump admin to fiscal austerity, it’s a dog that will never hunt again in the USA(barring hyperinflation/loss of reserve currency).
Ted Cruz and Mitch McConnell are already test driving the strategy, they are going to be in for a big surprise, the nation both left and right want at that government through and nothing besides hyperinflation will put that horse back in the barn.
I think you make a good point about the austerity program. I expect we will see a return to the previous agenda…Cruz has to think he’s going have a shot at it….and Pence is cut from the same cloth….Pompeo too. Rubio actually carried my precinct in 2016 in the primary….so maybe he has a chance. I’d rate him as slightly less of a Charlie Koch stalking horse than the others.
We just have to be close…to some kind of reckoning on the currency….we have tons of asset inflation and we have inflation in housing and food, healthcare, higher education.
But the downward pressure on wages is a thing…that’s not going to do anything but get worse….that’s very deflationary. And it creates a real need to do something to make some money flow downhill to those at the bottom, who won’t act right anymore if they’re hungry.
Then you have the “dollar milkshake” thing…..foreign debtors who have to get dollars..and not enough dollars to meet the need…..keeps the dollar stronger than it otherwise would be. High net worth foreigners in countries with dollar denominated debt can hedge by buying US dividend stocks. That drives equities….and it isn’t about to change.
It’s damned complicated…..much more so than most end-the-Fed hyperinflationistas think it is.
Eddie, all austerity politicians are now DOA, you will not see one get elected for the next 2-3 generations, the age of even pretend austerity is over, make no mistake it has been pretend for the last 50 some years but people still bought it, that ship has completely sailed.
Well, I do agree with what you said in another comment….that we have crossed the Rubicon by helicoptering money to ordinary citizens. Frankly, that surprised me.
But roughly 80% of the helicopter money got sucked up by the elites. The amount of helicopter money that made it to Joe Sixpack was enough to make him run out and buy a new boat…..but it won’t pay for the boat.
I got a bailout….nearly a quarter of a million…..one problem…none of it has been forgiven yet…..and they keep changing the rules on PPP…and EIDL was never gonna be forgiven. EIDL is a 15 year note…PPP is a damn THREE year note if not forgiven.
And the way things are going….it might not be enough to keep me in business. I’ve used up all but about 10K and every cent either went to payroll….or my own federal income tax. Good thing I’m only 65 years old and have most of my career left in front of me…….Oh, wait!!!
Austerity is dead for 2-3 generations? I admit that it is currently fashionable to think that “deficits don’t matter”, and while the US remains the reserve currency, that is partially true, though the result is that foreigners are gradually buying up American businesses and real estate.
Sadly, the US won’t retain it’s currency status for 1 generation, much less 2-3. Do you really think other countries will continue to give us goods in exchange for nothing but paper forever? To be honest, the US itself most likely won’t survive another generation, but whether or not it does, once the reserve status is gone, normal economic rules will return. There is no such thing as a free lunch. You can put off paying for it, but sooner or later the debt will come due.
When Trump loses, he will take 30 million or more cultists with him. The Republicans have two choices — kowtow to Trump and cede control of the party to him and his cult or form a new coalition with centrist Democrats. Otherwise, they will be relegated to 3rd-party status.
These people are already talking about a Trump 2024 run if he loses noting they believe country will need him to fix the problems as humorous as that my be. I will be curious how the GOP handles such a scenario and if they welcome him or shut the door. I think they it would be best if they shut the door on that immediately after the election rather than let it build any kind of momentum.
Not sure what “best” means. “Best” for the GOP, or “best” for the US?
“Best” for the US is the annihilation of the Republican Party and the advent of a new conservative movement with a platform and principles other than nihilism, such as support can be found for that concept.
If Trump loses he will continue the rallies, more of them then ever before. A Trump TV network as he and his cult base revolt against FOX. I imagine him encouraging sectarian violence and domestic terrorism becoming quite the problem. Even more chaos then now is imminent.
Good point. I expect there will be a Trumpite in the mix. The worse case scenario is that he gets some new fake TV show that paints him as a genius and a martyr for a cause.
Mish, have a good trip on your visit to Iowa. Good driving weather this weekend and still some fall color to enjoy.
It has taken me a little longer than usual to see the amount of garbage in this polling. I was firmly in the Biden will win camp. I now see 60-40 Trump. The black vote alone will win the election from Trump.
Trump wins and senate stays Red.
Meanwhile… back in the reality based community…
Nice thing is we don’t have long to wait. I expect you to say you are wrong if you are. I will do the same of I am.
….On January 24, 2020, the Senate Committees on Health and Foreign Relations held a closed meeting with only Senators present to brief them about the COVID-19 outbreak and how it would affect the United States.[2][3]
Following the meeting Senator Kelly Loeffler and her husband Jeffrey Sprecher, the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, made twenty-seven transactions to sell stocks worth between $1,275,000 and $3,100,000 and two transactions to buy stock in Citrix Systems which saw an increase following the stock market crash.[2]
Senator David Perdue made a series of 112 transactions with stocks sold for around $825,000 and bought stocks worth $1.8 million. Perdue started buying around $185,000 in stock in DuPont, a company that makes personal protective equipment, on the same day as the Senate briefing on March 2.[4][5]
100’s of polling places closed in Iowa, oddly enough affecting the more densely populated ares (30% of voters affected).
The Senate is broken. Years ago the rationale for two votes per state was to prevent the majority from imposing its will on the minority. Today its the reverse.
You have it completely wrong. The Senate was to keep the populous states from imposing their will on the rural states, and it works very well. To become law, it must pass the House of Representatives, where power is vested in the urban stats, and it must pass the Senate, where power is vested in the rural states.
Thus, a proposed law much be acceptable to both urban and rural states in order to become law. That grand compromise is the core of the reason the US has been so stable. Now, if you live in an urban state, and don’t like the Senate, keep in mind that those in the “flyover states” despise the House of Representatives just as much. Also keep in mind that that is the way it is supposed to be.
I am from a low population state (Florida) that became a high populations state and from my standpoint the value of the Senate has not changed. It keeps a state’s particular hubrus from affecting the Union to the point of irrationality.
only the senate has now gutted rules and confirms judges with 50 votes and has served as a blocker to any executive action the president does
Well it was mostly about mollifying the southern states that the US would not outlaw slavery of which the owning of other human beings based on skin color was existential. The whole urban vs rural was a way to make that socially acceptable.
it all hinges on a biden win for presidency. most people simply vote down ballot. very few will split the ticket.
The GOP is complicit because it has enabled Trump and did not restrain him when it had a chance to do so.
Because of their actions during the impeachment trial, where they voted to not even hear witnesses, they now own Trump and voters will punish them for it all the way down the ballot.
I think history now shows that the impeachment process is so easily perverted by politics over evidence…..that it’s fairly useless…at least in a scenario like we have now, where politics is very polarized.
It’s also subject to being abused by a hostile Senate that has a majority lined up against an unpopular President…..thinking of Andrew Johnson now….it appears he would have been convicted (unfairly) had not one Senator actually been paid off to change his vote…according to what I read.
It bothers me a lot that Trump got a free ride on his Ukraine attempted extortion deal…..everybody could see the evidence….but it never mattered.
I’m sure our governor had down-ballot candidates (particularly Cornyn) in mind when he took the step of eliminating the straight party ticket just before this election.. And it will help the incumbent Republican…no doubt.
Impeachment was made very hard to keep politics to a minimum. A failed impeachment hurts the party that initiates it precisely because enough legislators perceive it as being frivolous. It hurt the Democrats very much this time around.
I think the ill-considered “Russiagate investigation” hurt the credibility of the Democrats worse than the impeachment. No unbiased person, looking at that in the full daylight, could now consider that to have been anything other than a politically motivated dog-and-pony show. I know I’ll be instantly flamed for saying that….but I vote liberal mostly….and I can still see it anyway, no matter what the hardcore campaigners say.
The impeachment hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats….and they are about to find out just exactly how bad it hurt them. Bad enough to lose the Presidency and both houses of congress….quite likely.
They don’t argue in good faith. No amount of scandal will make them turn away from Trump. But they’ll spend all day complaining about Benghazi and “her/his emails”.
Throw this one on the pile as another impeachment worthy scandal that they’ll ignore.
Agree. I saw that Erdogan story too. Really, people just don’t have any memory for even recent history. Nate Hentoff was calling out Trump in the late 70’s…His entire adult life is one swindle after another. He did deals with scuzzballs who traded in blood diamonds…it goes on and on. You think all those pricey apartments Trump sold to Russians in the 90’s wasn’t about money laundering? Pulleeeze.
I can explain his popularity in one word…..television. A lot of Americans watched his stupid fake TV show and thought he was some kind of brilliant businessman and a genius…..never mind it was all scripted andd completely fake….
We just love us a celebrity in this country. Kanye in 2024 anyone?
If the Dems take Congress and Trump holds office, I would expect his impeachment and conviction in the first week of January.
A loser Democrats will never have the necessary votes in the Senate
Yeah you’re right. They’re too spineless to change the rules to simple majority.
I like your reasoning on this one. I think you’re right.
I looked at Texas again last night…and I still think Trump and Cornyn both win here, unless the usual religious bloc vote turns on Trump in a big way. I can’t call that…but I don’t really expect it because Trump people seem to be loyal in the face of just about anything.
Agree on TX going for Trump. I believe this cycle is finally the clarion call for progressives in TX to mobilize their networks to take over at the state level. One reason I’m not favoring Biden there this year is I am unsure if four years is enough to lastingly flip TX to purple. That might have to wait for 2028.
Forecasting Texas is just about impossible this year. They have already exceeded the 2016 turnout in early voting. That means the models used by pollsters to represent likely voters are going to be poorly representative of who will vote because turnout will be so high.
I fully expect that today we will see the early vote eclipse the ENTIRE vote for 2106.
Biden has a better shot than Hegar, looks like. Which is a shame, because Cornyn needs to go, and we need a moderate to balance Ted Cruz.
That happened very early this morning by more than 100,000 votes.
I would hope for a Biden win but not confident enough to bet on it.
I halfway expect all the young voters to be so disappointed that they don’t show up in 2024….it works that way sometimes…but they could take it as a call to arms…..dunno.
My millennial kids are getting very involved. I think two of them are working the polls..one here…..one in Donnie’s hometown of Queens….that one is a brave girl.
Younger voters, yet another reason why the models will be off
“In Texas, as of Friday, 753,600 voters cast a ballot in the 2020 election. During the same time period in 2016, only 106,000 Texans younger than 30 had voted, according to the analysis, representing a 610% increase.”
I believe that represents a referendum on Trump more than it does a seismic shift…
In this country we have had the issue for a long time….before Trump….of working class people voting against their own interests…..
This is at least partly because they see through the modern Democratic Party narrative and understand that the Democrats abandoned labor.
I’m a fan of the late Joe Bageant, who wrote about this very eloquently..he was a Virginian, of course, and Virginia did turn blue after he passed away.
Changing demographics would say Texas goes blue in a few years….but the Hispanic vote is similar to the white “cracker” vote Joe B. used to write about…..they vote against their own interests…many of them….for various cultural reasons….and because they see that the Democratic Party leadership is just trying to use them. Or maybe because it’s that many of them are real boot-strappers.
Who was it?….maybe Ambrose Bierce or H.L. Mencken…… who said Americans never see themselves as poor…..just millionaires temporarily down on their luck….something like that.
What is “voting against their interest” is a matter of perspective. What you think is good for someone may not be what they think is good for them.
Voting against your interests is when you’re in deep enough poverty that you qualify for Medicaid to pay me to fix your kids’ teeth for free…and you vote for somebody like Greg Abbott, who wants to defund all social welfare programs completely. Or Trump.
Capische?
I suggest read Deer Hunting With Jesus, by the late Joe Bageant. He was a lot better at explaining it than I am.
Ha! Sounds like Mencken would have said that.
I finally got around to checking……and it turns out that it was John Steinbeck I was paraphrasing.
“the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires.” —-from America and Americans…1966.
The context, which nobody remembers, is that Steinbeck was talking about why he thought socialism had failed in America. Worth revisiting, imho, at a time when the pendulum is swinging back in that direction. Let me give you the entire quote and see if you see any similarities with our current political milieu.
“Except for the field organizers of strikes, who were pretty tough monkeys and devoted, most of the so-called Communists I met were middle-class, middle-aged people playing a game of dreams. I remember a woman in easy circumstances saying to another even more affluent: ‘After the revolution even we will have more, won’t we, dear?’ Then there was another lover of proletarians who used to raise hell with Sunday picknickers on her property.
“I guess the trouble was that we didn’t have any self-admitted proletarians. Everyone was a temporarily embarrassed capitalist. Maybe the Communists so closely questioned by the investigation committees were a danger to America, but the ones I knew—at least they claimed to be Communists—couldn’t have disrupted a Sunday-school picnic. Besides they were too busy fighting among themselves.”
High voter turnout correlates STRONGLY with Democrat success. That’s why Republicans engage in vote suppression. They are non-competitive otherwise. Pretty good reason for them to cease to exist.