Trafalgar and Rasmussen Polls
Nate Silver Comments
I’m not a Let’s Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points. https://t.co/YJJUHUxeE0 pic.twitter.com/lOjynoRJLZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2020
I’m not a Let’s Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points.
Broader Issue
A broader issue here is with polling firms that behave like partisan shops even though they’re nominally nonpartisan. And unlike pollsters who work for campaigns, who are mostly pretty good, a lot of them don’t know what they’re doing, as @Nate_Cohn says: https://t.co/Yz4fwJqrDN pic.twitter.com/TPqTEe9q67
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2020
A broader issue here is with polling firms that behave like partisan shops even though they’re nominally nonpartisan. And unlike pollsters who work for campaigns, who are mostly pretty good, a lot of them don’t know what they’re doing, as
@Nate_Cohn says
Counter Replies
Maybe you’re right but saying this about one of the few outlets that actually called the 2016 election accurately when you yourself was so wrong is pretty arrogant
— blake (@bbqbaseball62) October 25, 2020
You are such a fraud. If you want to play the crosstabs game, look at the INSANE map by @Nate_Cohn showing Appalachian counties flipping by 40+ points to Biden. Remember: you LOSE the crosstabs game with your favorite pollsters, which is why you didn’t want folks looking at them.
— Robert Barnes (@barnes_law) October 25, 2020
More on Trafalgar Silliness
https://twitter.com/data270/status/1320378515452268544
Trafalgar Response – Remove the Cross Tabs
Links to these Trafalgar polls with the dubious crosstabs have gone dead.
My Take
- Yes, those crosstabs by the Trafalgar Group are “crazy.”
- If Trafalgar stood by them, they should leave them up.
- Yes, Silver was overconfident in 2016.
- Both Trump supporters and Biden supporters believe what that want to believe no matter how crazy it is.
- Trafalgar got lucky in 2016. Trump won because of a last minute Comey bombshell or we would not even be having this discussion.
We will see who is crazy and who isn’t soon enough.
I put my faith in polls on women, those 65 and older, and Trump’s miserable handling of Covid.
My Faith is Here
What About Undecided Voters?
I am glad you asked.
There are not enough this time to matter. For discussion, please see Who are the Undecided Voters and How Many Remain?
This is Not 2016
Please consider my Eight Reasons This is Not 2016.
I even added a bonus 9th reason, Covid.
A thoughtful reader added two more:
- Trump ran as an outsider in 2016. He is an insider now.
- The Trump campaign is short on cash and had to pull ads in a number of key states.
I made both of those points before so I accept them.
Bucking Silver
I don’t mind bucking Silver and do so all the time.
I did in 2016.
November 2, 2016: Assessing Trump’s Chances With Six Days Remaining.
Without a doubt, the decision by FBI director James Comey to announce the discovery of new emails related to the Hillary Clinton has seriously damaged Hillary’s election chances.
This may hand Trump the victory.
If we only look at the three most recent polls, Trump has a decent chance of winning Michigan.
In fact, Michigan seems to be Trump’s best shot, followed by Colorado, then New Hampshire.
By the way, even Wisconsin is in play. The most recent poll has Hillary with a mere one point lead, on an adjusted basis.
A slew of states are in play. Trump needs just one of them, assuming I am correct that Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada are a given.
Attributing Luck to Skill
Silver’s 30% odds of Trump winning were too low and I said so.
Ultimately, I expected Trump to fail by a state or two. This lead to taunts against me and of course more so against Silver for being “wrong”.
Those confident Trump would win in 2016 were mostly lucky, not brilliant (unless they changed their belief because of the Comey bombshell).
People Don’t Understand Polls
Importantly, people do not understand polls or odds based on them.
40% chances happen 40% of the time, by definition. Watch any poker tournament and you will see 10% hands come in.
That certainly does not make the 10% assessment “wrong”.
In 2016, I correctly cited Comey, in advance, not arrears, just underweighted it.
Lightning Won’t Strike Twice
Without Comey, Trump would have lost. Hillary was more despised and that carried the day.
Trump is more despised today. For numerous reasons (links listed above), I cast my lot with Silver in this election.
Lightning will not strike twice. The Hunter Biden story isn’t lightning, it’s meaningless nonsense.
Unless Joe Biden dies between now an the election, it’s over.
I reiterate that it’s more likely for Biden to win Texas than for Trump to win the election.
Mish
There is no Comey like thing but we do have the arch-conservatives threatening to flip the Roberts/liberal justices approved late ballot measure in PA if Biden wins a close enough election and give it to Trump. They were so clear on this the Dem governor of PA instantly urged Dems and like-minded independents to drop off their ballots immediately instead of mailing them. Friday and Saturday a total of 144,340 Dems responded and dropped off their ballots (in person voting is now closed but drop boxes are open) which are now marked received by the SecState. 144,340 votes that could have been eventually invalidated if the Arch-Conservatives later uphold the GOP appeal. I only post this here to point out that the Supreme Court could end up making Trafalgar right on PA, even if they have to steal it from Biden. Would Trafalgar accept an “asterisk”?
Trafalgar is a Republican pollster whose goal is to pretend that Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden in every single important state. Trafalgar relies on the fact that they were accurate in Michigan in 2016.
So Mish, when Trump wins, you do realize your already very shaky credibility is going to sink even lower…. right?
I think the enthusiasm for Trump is the difference in a tight race. And I think Trump has a larger piece of the black vote than he did in 2016. Also, the “Transition away from oil” comment by Biden will make a noticeable difference in Pennsylvania, which could have gone either way, and this has to factor in there now. It’s Groundhog Day in November.
Trump creates a lot of “enthusiasm” among those who want to vote against him, too. Expect a very, very high turnout, which is usually bad for Republicans.
Yeah, of course and no word on the “most extensive and most inclusive voter fraud organization”. I get it! YOu are completely non-partisan 😉
Lol, I can’T wait to see all the faces when Trump unexpectedly wins. Trump is drawing such massive rallies whereas Biden is hardly getting any spectators. This is Trump country and CNN, NBC etc are all partisan as well. One more week and we will all be smarter!
“Lightning Won’t Strike Twice”
Never say never. Even James Bond learned that.
“We will see who is crazy and who isn’t soon enough.”
Yes we will.
My blog: link to docs.google.com
Note I exposed Nate Silver a long time ago’ link to richardcharnin.com
Trump will win the EV if he gets 48% of the vote. Note I am the only election analyst to exactly forecast the RECORDED EV in each of the last three elections. link to richardcharnin.wordpress.com
2020 Election forecast (subject to change on Nov.2) link to richardcharnin.wordpress.com
OK LOOK, I’m a statistician. I love the idea of collecting a whole lot of data, feeding it into a sophisticated algorithm, and making world-changing inferences from it.
But I’m also a biologist (biochemist) and I know that a human, and systems which arise from humans, is an infinitely complex system. That the more you try to grasp said systems, the more you try understand them in their entirety or in their minutiae the more that understanding will slip through your fingers. And just when you think you have a clue about biological system, said system will fuck with you and throw you a curve ball.
So don’t get lazy and trust only in the polls this election season, or the aggregates. We are going through some unprecedented events right now, multiple, large, and world-changing events. COVID, the lockdown, violent riots a level we’ve never seen, political assassinations in broad daylight, social media acting like Big Brother and censoring one political party, etc. etc. etc.
If you think our models and methods which were designed for a different, calmer, and more sane time won’t need to be adjusted in major and unexpected ways, you’re a fool.
What does this mean? Don’t trust the polls.
So I take it Mish is voting for Biden.
Why would you think that? He has endorsed Jo Jorgensen.
Mish-
I think that the difference this year is this…
The shy Trump voter is very very real and not small in number. I’m one of them. I work in the IC for the federal government. NO WAY I am going to let anyone I work with that I do NOT KNOW for a fact is a Trump voter that I am voting for him. 4 yrs ago, I had a Trump sign in my yard and a bumper sticker, so did my next door neighbor. After the last 4 yrs of being hounded and called racist, homophobic, hate women, after all the people who have supported Trump have been fired from jobs. NO FREAKING WAY! I just wait to vote. WERE I to be called by a pollster, I would lie. Two reasons. First, I do not trust that the data will be confidential. Second, it serves my purpose to have the democrats be over confident so they do not feel obligated to vote.
I’m going to bet that Trump gets a larger share of the black vote than any republican in modern history. There is a rebellion going on in the black community and it is linked to being taken for granted by democrats with no results they can see. It also has to do with the fact that black voters are more conservative than people think and the hard left turn of the democrats scares them and scares a LOT of Latino voters who came from places like Venezuela and Columbia. My black male friends are either not voting or voting for Trump. Of course they are all veterans…so..they might lean republican anyway.
Biden blew PA when he talked about oil and fracking at the second debate. That is gonna lock down Ohio for Trump and TX too. He also choked by not answering about whether or not he would pack the court. The people craving a return to “normal” are terrified of that.
The Biden laptop scandal has legs. It is very real and it is all over the place. Stupid Twitter and FB and MSM downplaying it and hiding it just made the story bigger. THAT IS gonna hurt Joe Biden. Nobody is going to believe he did not know even if he did not directly participate. It is exactly the kind of thing that Biden cannot afford because he is running on his character.
The riots in Wisconsin are going to put Trump over the top in that state. The iron range pretty well swapping to republican from democrat will certainly help.
No…I think Trump is going to win the electoral college.
God I hope you’re right. A Biden victory marks the beginning of the end of the US as we know it. So did a Trump victory, but it was infinitely preferable to a president Hillary and now to the Californiafication of the entire Country. (I live in CA).
Exactly. You’re doing what people be doing, pushing the polls aside to look at the broader picture in more detail. Of course, you’ll never convince data nerds like Nste Silver that their little algorithms can’t accurately predict the future. But, after a few drubbings they might come sround.
small royalty interest. But I try to view the nation’s issues on the basis of what’s good for the country as a whole, and not on the basis of how much money I can get personally. Joe Biden hasn’t called for an outright ban on fracking but he recognizes correctly that regulation is too lax and we don’t need any more man made earthquakes or contaminated water wells. I’m fine with Joe Biden even if it were to cause some reduction in my royalty income.
Ummm… Nate’s credibility went out the window in 2016. Pretty much all pollsters’ credibility did. #KAG2020
What Nate Silver is trying to do by criticizing other pollsters is limit his competition. He wants to delegitimize their results even though they’ve correctly predicted the 2016 and 2018 elections. If he’s able to get them “deplatformed” in a way, then he’ll be better able to gaslight the election process thereby increasing his political influence.
Being so wrong in 2016 should be an automatic disqualification for future election polling.
Silver’s competition would be Real Clear Politics, the other poll aggregator. How does Silver criticizing Trafalgar delegitimize RCP? I don’t understand.
It’s weird, I was so certain trump would lose in 2016 I didn’t stay up to watch the results. 2020 however seems a no brainer, Trump is everywhere in every town and in every rally. Biden is a ghost. Hell I think he’s even going to win Minnesota. The republican vote will / is enormous and the dems, outside of an early voting surge, it’s just not there. It’s all about turnout and the dems won’t have it. Trump 2020 in a landslide.
I’d stay up late this time if I were you. Maybe be ready to pop a cork when they call it for The Donald.
I think this qualifies as whistling past the cemetery – and he will not take MN.
Do the polls adjust for the fact that many have aleady voted?
Traflagar got it right in 2016 & 2018. RCP called Traflagar the most accurate. link to realclearpolitics.com
Why is Silver relevant and considered the purveyor of all polls that are legit? He was terrible in 2016. Should have redone his methodology but he didn’t . Now he blasts Traflagar , Zogby, Rasmuesen? Weren’t they correct in 2016? If Trump wins this time 538 is 86…..
538 is not a poller, it is an aggregator of polls. In their model the strength of the individual polls are weighted according to accepted practices of good polls, which is clearly displayed by the grades given to them in their e.g. Quinnipiac is B+, Trafalgar C-, Rasmussen C+, etc. Very, very few A’s. If you paid attention to their site you’d also know that they and nearly all pollsters made several adjustments to their models after 2016 e.g. including more data on lower education males. Doesn’t mean that they will be right but should help accuracy – at least for this year.
538 and polls were NOT really wrong in 2016 (This, as Mish points out, is because most people don’t understand what polls are showing – not predictions, probabilities!) The outcome was well within their margin of error and, in point of fact, got the actual election correct with Clinton winning popular vote by about 2%. They did get the silly electoral college wrong but only because it is an impossible thing to poll for, proven by the fact that roughly 70,000 people in 3 states doomed us to these past 4 years of misery.
Praise God for those 70,000. Can you imagine if Hillary was president these last 4 years? The pandemic would still exist in it’s current capacity, but the economy would’ve been doomed to recover. Record 3rd qtr GDP growth, record job growth, stock market coming back, more liberal SCOTUS. Yep, PRAISE GOD!!
Trump voters rarely participate in polls. The stigma is far higher now than in 2016 and as a result will not participate in polls or tell the truth. This is something that pollsters have admitted they are struggling with.
I think in 2016 the polls were wrong because many people publicly go against Trump and privately vote for him. I think the same is true this year. Even more so. I think the election will boil down to what pct is lying to the pollsters. If it’s only 1%, Biden wins. If it’s 10%, Trump wins.
The stigma is actually higher now than 2016. Nate Silver had Trump at 15% in 2016 as well. He is really taking a gamble by doubling down
This is referred to a known unknowns. The problem is people are predicting unknowns. Seems like a fools errand.
We will find out Jan. 20 when someone is inaugurated.
Why Trump will lose in ONE (1) reason:
Bloomberg
Apple’s Shifting Supply Chain Creates Boomtowns in Rural Vietnam Bloomberg
Nate, you are a really confused snowflake. Get out, get some sun.
Nate, you are a really a very confused snowflake. Get some sun!!
His reply to that question was Clintonesque: “I did not accept one penny…” No. Just millions, LOL!
I strongly disagree with Trump on Iran, Tariffs, Abortion, Trade.
Isn’t that enough?
I gave him a chance in 2016. Trump flunked.
Voting for someone you disagree with that strongly is downright idiotic IMO.
Weren’t Trump’s viewpoints on tariffs/trade and abortion the same in 2016 prior to the election? I recall he even caused a stir about taking on the anti-abortion stance publicly around April before the 2016 election. I think his views on tariffs/trade were always clear as well prior to Nov. of 2016.
What caused you to vote for him?
Mish, you are a left wing hack that is really upset that Trump is going to win again. So, you make up a story and attack the only Polling company that got it right four years ago.
His reply to that question was Clintonesque: “I did not accept one penny…” No. Just millions, LOL!
When he said “I” did not accept one penny, he meant directly from the source, not indirectly from Hunter. We all know Joe was/is the “Big Guy”. They took 2+ yrs and spent $MM’s trying to tie Turmp to Russia and failed. They impeached him over a phone call. They talked repeatedly of Quid Pro Quo with Trump; yet we know Biden went to Ukraine, met with the President and told him to either fire the investigator looking into Burisma or Joe would get back on Air Force Two and take the $1B in aid back with him. THAT is the definition of Quid Pro Quo. Yet the liberal media says nothing during the campaign, just like they are ignoring Hunter’s laptop. Media bias isn’t about what they tell you, it’s what they DON’T.
“The biggest question that needs answering is “did you are your family except money from foreign countries? If so what countries? “
In the debate, Biden answered that very straight forward and emphatically such that he set himself up for impeachment if false.
Anyone have a video clip?
It’s accept and not except.
Yeah, but Mish was quoting TimeToTest.
We will find out if he is elected. I don’t really believe anything in this politically charged environment. I don’t believe we have fake news or real news. We have some revenue and more revenue news. I also believe we have pure capitalism. Pure capitalism being an evolving system that extracts the most money it possibly can from it’s niche. Like nature it does it though any possible rent seeking or corrupt way possible if that achieves the goal.
On a side note this election feels exactly like 2016. Hated one and hated two. That’s why I said it was a coin flip. I expect polling to be even worse this time around. Self censorship is real. At this point I give it to Trump just for the incumbent value.
I also expect more Hunter/corruption allegation to surface over the coming week. Real or fake it will cast doubt on Bidens savior stance. If Trump is good at any one thing it’s timing. Just like your correctly incorrect Tesla puts, I don’t bet against Musk or Trump.
Can we start with the Trump crime family? Maybe all of the patents Ivanka got while daddy was prez
This is starting to feel like Brexit. Where’d Avid Remainer go? Same place Trump Cultists are going on 11/4.
Mish,
I wouldn’t dismiss the Hunter harddrive. You have to realize, for any candidate there’s multiple groups which are voting for them. People who are hard-core for the candidate, people who are hard-core against her challenger, people who are soft-core for her, and people who are soft-core against her candidate.
The emails probably caused a lot of people to drop from those last two. They had, up until then, put her “corruption” in their rearview mirror, suddenly they were reminded of it and decided to switch or, more likely, not vote or go third party.
Biden really isn’t “known” for corruption like Hillary was. Trump’s weak voter are weary because of COVID, lockdowns, unemployment, riots, etc. A lot of them just want it all to end and Biden looks “normal”. The Hunter emails makes him look corrupt, and not in a “violated a federal technicality” way. It makes him look corrupt in a very real way. It will light a fire under millions despite you dismissing it as “nonsense”.
Add to that people in PA who want to change their vote over Biden’s oil industry statement and I predict a Trump win.
if you believed obama’s birth certificate was fake you believe the hunter biden hard drive is real.
The FBI has confirmed it isn’t Russian disinformation. There’s a chain of custody. Hunter’s lawyers have asked for it back (thereby confirming that the hard drive was his). Tony Bobulinski has confirmed the authenticity of the emails.
The emails are real. Those who deny their authenticity probably still believe that 9/11 was an “inside job” and that Russian hackers altered votes.
“The FBI has confirmed it isn’t Russian disinformation” Nope, they said they weren’t commenting on it during the investigation. Basically what Comey should have done, at least they learned a lesson.
Only a fool votes FOR either of these two duds, I’d wager heavily that the vast majority of people are voting against the other candidate.
This is a result of a successful divide and conquer campaign in the political media, that a lot of people believe the other side of the red/blue model is actually evil. This means that October surprise scandals have little effect, since people already have their mind made up on which side is “destroying the country”.
yup.
October surprises have even less impact when 1/2 the electorate has voted by mid-October, and the incumbent’s team has little credibility and is the only group of people shedding light on the surprise.
We’re going to elect a demented con artist to replace a narcissistic con artist. Come December the focus will be how to swap Harris for Biden without red America showing antifa how riots really work.
58.6 million have voted as of 10/25 according to WaPo. The Hunter emails hit 10/13 when 17 million had voted. Assuming 2016 turnout levels (136 million), we’re not at 50% voting (67.5 million).
A little over a third had voted before Biden let the mask slip about phasing out the oil industry. Pennsylvania allows you to change your vote. PA will go trump as will NC, AZ, NV, NM, and WI.
As for Texas? Beto better prepare for another humiliation. Maybe he and his father-in-law can foreclose on a bunch of poor hispanics to cheer him up. Worked last time.
If Biden doesn’t want to cooperate with the left agenda they could always impeach him for Huntergate.
Mike it is possible there is some truth to the Hunter Biden story, but how much. However, the WSJ would not touch it. In fact they disputed it.
My assessment was simpler, It would not matter, even if true.
It seems the WSJ was looking into it, but Giuliani gave it to the Post while the WSJ was investigating it. Note: I’m voting Trump despite my personal dislike of him, but Giuliani is more than a bit of an@sshole and wild-card. He should have started pushing the story in August, he waited too long. link to thehill.com
The part that the WSJ disputed was Joe’s involvement or knowledge. For me, that’s always been the weak link. It’s pretty well established with evidence that Hunter was selling influence with his father’s name. It remains to be seen if Joe knew.
If he did, and didn’t stop Hunter, that’s immediately disqualifying. If he did and profited, that’ll be the source of impeachment if Joe wins and is around in two years to face a GOP takeover of Congress.
If joe didn’t know then Hunter was running a con. A con on some really rich and nasty people who have strong connections to some really powerful and much more nasty people. You gotta realize Hunter is now a national security risk to Joe (he could be kidnapped or targeted) and should be taken to an undisclosed location, locked up in a comfortable facility, and guarded day and night.
If, if , if…
The FBI has been in possession of the laptop since 2019–almost a year.
In this past year, with a heavily politicized DOJ, if there was a way to spin this up to something more than what it is, it certainly would have happened.
“Trump won because of a last minute Comey bombshell or we would not even be having this discussion.” According to Scott Adams, Comey provided an excuse for what most voters were planning to do, anyway. Without Comey, most would have found another excuse, like “I can’t stand Hillary.”
Inside every Trump voter is the slogan, “Trump 2020, because, f* you again.”
Except, most voters didn’t.
I watch 60 minutes tonight. Trump is correct he gets the hard questions and more than anything, they demand answers. I respect this and think this is the way journalism should be done.
Biden on the other hand was as always thrown soft balls. The biggest question that needs answering is “did you are your family except money from foreign counties? If so what countries? “.
They spent 60 million dollars investigating everything about Trump but people still talk about how corrupt he is. Either Trump is that smart or Muller and team was that incompetent. What do you think a Biden investigation would turn up?
Maybe at least he should answer those two simple questions. I think the election might ride on it.
Trump ain’t so squeaky clean. Watch him pardon himself for Mueller volume 2 as he walks out the door.
You can’t pardon your self for crimes you haven’t been charged or convicted of.
I hope people really aren’t dinking that much kool-aide. Doesn’t seem healthy.
I’d like to think that’s the case, but I guess we’ll find out Jan 20.
Trump gets the hard questions because he LIES! I don’t understand why they waste their time asking
Mish, internet web polling was basically fairly accurate in 2012, but were off by like 9 points in 2016. Thus no internet polling can now be trusted. The russians figured out how to skew those polls.
There are several pollsters that are so biased that they might just as well make up thier results, and get paid a lot of money doing it.
Rasmussen, Zogby, and a few others, just pay them no attention.
When it comes to polling a few things count, who hired them to do the polls, what is their MOE because that is what it is all about.
I see the raw polls and can compute what I see in my head the same way you and other people can. Raw polling data says Trump may get 40% or a bit more. Maybe he will get 42% of the total vote. Can this make him the winner in the electoral college? Certainly not but even if it could because we have become that polarized the nation will do what Trump says he would do, not accept the outcome.
This is why I am disappointed in you personally. You took the cheap easy way out and said you do not endorse Donald Trump. Yet you did endorse a third party candidate which is your right. Even though you you know for a fact that if Trump wins the US dies. That third party candidate has about the same odds of winning as voters writing in Herkie for president so you decision to not to support Biden is half assed at best. You do not want Trump, you do not want Biden, so you advocate anyone else in essence. Knowing that your vote is meaningless.
I have come to the conclusion that third party votes that have no chance is the path of pussy whiners. You know that one of two people will win the election. And so you do the same thing as not voting when it is your duty as a citizen to select one of the two people no matter how much it breaks your heart to do it. YOU THINK BIDEN IS MY CHOICE? He is not, but I would vote for a ham sandwich before I would vote for a lying criminal homophobe child molesting whore paying off serial bankrupt like Trump. He took your old party and turned it into the Fourth Reich. You may be pissed off about that but you have a duty as a citizen to stop it, you will get another chance in 4 years.
All you have to do to win is provide the people with a nation that is at peace, where prosperity reaches all zip codes, where every child is educated, where healthcare is not a privilige but a right!
You have to see by now that those who belive the second amendment as the far right describes it does not overcome the right to get your kids healthcare without bankrupting you.
We know the Fed is the root of the problem, but you cannot just delete the Federal Reserve Act and think everything will be fine tomorrow. It would end this nation. Our money would be worthless because it would delete the full faith and credit of the USA which is the only thing backing those dollars.
Maybe a few of you were smart enough to pile up a little gold or silver, you will be the first to die when hundreds of millions of people suddenly have no money or income. The only way you will survive owning these PM’s is to keep secret you have PM’s. So your clever plan means your gold and silver is not a medium of echange after all. You can’t use “money” if you cannot admit owning it. If starving people figure out you own it you cannot hire an army large enough to defend it.
And I have come to the conclusion that those who vote for the main two parties, trying to pick “the lesser of two evils” are those who have given up, and no longer have any hope for the long term; they just want to blend in and get by.
We have to deal with reality as it is, when you know one of two people are going to claim the presidency and be sworn in on January 20 at noon next year it is up to you to do your civic DUTY and vote for one or the other, and right now that means voting for the one that will do the least harm to the republic and her citizens. In that frame of reference there is no way any rational sober sane adult would vote for Donald Trump leaving only a vote for Joe Biden, not to do so is an abdication of your civic duty and I do not want to hear a single word of complaint out of the mouths of the people who did not do this moral imparitive in the next 4 years, you will have gotten just what you voted for. And I do not mean to aim that at you Carl, I know you well enough by now to know you will do the right thing by your duty and conscience.
“Mish, internet web polling was basically fairly accurate in 2012, but were off by like 9 points in 2016. “
Bullshit in unexpected places
The national polls were off by about 3% in 2016.
Some state polls were worse. But there was a serious lack of high-quality state polls in 2016.
One of the problems with the polling Mish is that if you have ten polls ranging from 2.2% to 3.5% and average them out they will be pretty accurate. But then add in an outlier like Rasmussen or Zogby that have some ridiculous number like 14.8% and suddenly that accuracy is just utterly gone. Some mathematicians will take data like that and normalize it by getting rid of outliers at both ends, but to me that smacks of cherrypicking your data for a confirmation bias.
It has been a long time since I studied statistics in college, was mid nineties, it is an incredibly advanced science and I will admit I did not like it all that much, but I will say I think the predictive powers of statistics when done right can be pretty awesome. But one dishonest pollster can completely blow away accuracy and that will usually favor the underdog, maybe not enough to win it, but in a close contest any help is important.
“I have come to the conclusion that third party votes that have no chance is the path of pussy whiners. “
I’ve come to the conclusion that people who believe this are stomping their feet in a childlike tantrum demanding that everybody vote their way. Not for the other team, not for 3rd party, only their way.
That sentiment drives the “f you vote,” which put Trump where he is today.
You get to control 1 vote. Stfu about everybody elses’
Ah the republican version of America where freedom of speech does not exist. You can STFU too then right? And while you are at it tell your small dicked nazi boyfriends in the “proud boys” they also can STFU.
I’m not telling you how to vote.
STFU is in reference to those who whine incessantly, demanding your vote confirm to their standards.
Regardless of their side, they always drive votes away, so I guess karma deals with them anyway.
You come to a social media platform that only exists as a forum for people to discuss what is wrong with our systems, politics, economics, social structure, then accuse someone like me of whining? That is what this site is here for, and it is only YOU that says it is whining, I know there are quite a few other posters here who agree with me even though you want to dismiss it as whining. Guess what jerk, to us YOU are the whiner. I do not call people Nazis because I disagree with them, I call them Nazis when they ACT like Nazis, putting kids in cages in concentration camps with no accountability, by relegating non straight white males to second class citizenship, shooting people when they disagree and more than 90% of all politically and racially motivated murders in this country are indeed right wingers not left. By forcing through a nominee to SCOTUS with far right wing values as a litmus test rather than their respect for the laws and judicial system of the nation, and never has this nation seen more solid hypocrisy than this, all rationalized like a 5 year old as they have said over and over “if the shoe was on the other foot.” Well it soon will be on the other foot and we will see how well they like it then. We have people here who utterly deny any russian interference in our elections or media. Deny people are dying of Covid, deny Trump ever paid off porn stars, DENIAL IS NOT GOVERNMENT!
And I do not take shit from people like you who go on public forums just to tell others to shut up.
Are you telling me who to vote for?
No? good, then I’m not telling you to stfu, nothing I said is directed at you, and you’ve just put a paragraph of words in my mouth, still under the mistaken assumption that I’m a partisan Repub.
Yes? well, then yeah, if you’re telling me that I need to vote for Biden or I’m a Nazi, then stfu.
I actually do not care if you are a republican a democrat a libertarian or a russian fucking spy, you are rude and nasty and totally irony deprived. I never told you to vote for anyone, I was telling Mish why I felt that endorsing a third party candidate with no chance to win was an abdication of one’s DUTY to vote for the better candidate and the reasons why it is so critical. I do not tell anyone how to vote, but do tell you why I think people are scum and traitors for voting Trump, and why it is important not to throw away a vote on a protest like Jorgensen when that vote might have been the one that put Biden over the top, or added to the overwhelming nature of the Biden win so that the GOP cannot end up stealing this election. Which by the way has already begun with the SCOTUS voting along partisan lines to force the state of WI to count all mailed votes on election day even if they cannot count all the votes on election day because there are so many, they struck down a lower courts order that tsaid the state could have as long a s6 days to count them all, that was tossed. In the primary they had the extra time and fully 80,000 votes were counted after the old deadline, 5% of all the votes. I proves that because of Covid state infrastructure cannot handle the load and they need more time to do the counting, but this will harm Biden and help Trump, though in reality it harms AMERICA and aids her enemies.
If you want to mince words about how out of joint your nose is then go right ahead, bitch about your ruffled feelings as the nation collapses into fascist imprisonment.
And yes by the way, if you knew your history you would know that Trump and the GOP are following the Nazi playbook to a tee, what the hell did you think Nazis really were? How did you imagine Germany fell into their sick and depraved thrall?
Just watch because we are reliving it.
Your intellect is dizzying.
Have you considered writing books instead of long essays? I’m not sure it’s possible to convey all your knowledge in only the 20 paragraphs you’ve written here.
Why do you think I hate Twitter so much?
btw, I have never voted for a Republican candidate for President. so you’re barking up the wrong tree.
the closest I’ve come is this election. Despite hating Trump, I really want to cast that “f you” vote to all the aholes resorting to calling people “Nazis” every time they disagree with somebody.
I went with the write-in, but if I’d followed the advice of the Left and only voted for a major party candidate, my vote would have been to raise my middle finger to the Left and give my vote to one ahole (Trump) instead of an entire Party of aholes. but go ahead, keep telling people not to vote 3rd party.
I strongly disagree with Trump on Iran, Tariffs, Abortion, Trade.
Isn’t that enough?
I gave him a chance in 2016. Trump flunked.
Voting for someone you disagree with that strongly is downright idiotic IMO.
It is YOUR conscience Mish, I cannot answer that question. As for voting for someone you disagree with; tell me when you have ever agreed with EVERYTHING a politician said or did? If you look hard enough you will find disagreement with Jorgensen on some things. Or she would as president do some things you are uncomfortable with, so you aren’t able to vote for her? I am not comfortable with everything Biden or the democrats stand for either, but when I compare it to the ONLY realistic alternative, Trump, there simply is no contest, in my opinion Trump should spend the rest of his life in prison and not soiling the constitution that has guided this nation for 240 years.
Trump’s not losing TX, he’ll also take AZ, FL, GA, and OH; it’s going to come down to NC, PA, MI, WI, MN, and NH.
Agree re: TX, FL, OH and GA, but why do you think he’ll take AZ? I think that’s a true toss-up.
He needs NC (he’ll likely get it), then any 2 of MI, WI, MN or AZ, none of which are states where he’s favored. He’s polling way down in 3 of them.
Biden will win PA and NH — might as well write off those.
NC, trump would need to win bigly on election day going in down 10% link to electproject.github.io
As I am fond of saying, lie and deny if that makes you feel better; but reality is Biden is now leading in Texas. link to politico.com
This is a poll done by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, so not biased from outsiders. Not paid for by one party or the other, or for the benefit of one candidate.
“The poll showed Biden with the support of 48 percent of likely voters, compared with 45 percent for Trump. The results represent a shift from the same poll in September, when Trump led by 2 percentage points. One difference from September is that Biden has expanded his lead among Hispanic voters from 30 percentage points to 48.”
Frankly the fact that Biden is even within 9 points of Trump in Texas no less ahead by 3 should leave republicans quaking in their boots because Trump cannot afford to lose PA, TX, FL, or for that matter OH or GA. Biden has a solid lead in all three rust belts states that Trump took in ’16 WI, PA, and MI. This is starting to look like a landslide and unlike other democrats who are acting so superstitious about it, I am going to say it straight up, the right is going to get blown away, including loss of their senate majority. And shortly after that the SCOTUS because it will get packed.
Ohio, maybe.
A Trump world vs. a Biden world. Are you saying you prefer to live in Joe’s world? Higher taxes, Paris Accord, probably a carbon tax, a vice-president with the most liberal voting record in the Senate last year, and I could go on. Are you serious? You sound serious. Who got to you?
trump is an ignorant, foul mouthed conman and a misogynist – women generally despise him. Not my president!
The US survived Obama, Clinton, and Carter just fine. It even survived FDR and LBJ, though both damaged it severely, and the price will eventually have to be paid. It very nearly has not survived Trump, however. He has caused rioting, violence, and division, the likes of which have never been seen before. He has grossly mishandled the pandemic, too. Do you really think the US could survive another 4 years like the last 4?
“He has caused rioting, violence, and division, the likes of which have never been seen before.”
That is 90% the fault of children who refuse to accept the system + the media fanning the flames. Trump sucks but don’t fault him for peoples’ ridiculous reactions to his suckiness.
“Do you really think the US could survive another 4 years like the last 4?”
Yes. Greater danger to me is then the Boomers die off and the “cancel rent” Millennials become the biggest constituency.
“A Trump world vs. a Biden world. Are you saying you prefer to live in Joe’s world? Higher taxes, Paris Accord, probably a carbon tax, a vice-president with the most liberal voting record in the Senate last year, and I could go on. Are you serious? You sound serious. Who got to you?”
You do not understand the difference between a prediction or what one prefers.
I voted libertarian. in 2016 I voted for Trump.
It amazes me how people equate a prediction to a preference.
I don’t like either of them and endorse Jo Jorgensen
You can “endorse” who you like. The fact of the matter is that no one cares who you “endorse” and either Trump or Biden is going to win. Your comment is nothing but a cop-out.
there’s a reason why 24 of the 25 poorest and most dependent states are ‘trump world.’ liberal world does all the innovative work and pays all the taxes, subsidizing trump world’s ‘freedom.’
Define “poor”
In actuality, the poorer states have far more affordable housing, food, medical care, than the blue states.
Also, the average home size is larger, relative to income, in what you call poorer states, with far more land available to the kids to play.
Income doesn’t equal quality of life. I’ve been to every major city in the US. Using NYC as an example: A kid raised on a farm earning 30k a year in family income has a better quality of life than a NYC kid would. That kid is less likely to commit crime, die of preventable disease (due to better diet and less pollution) and more likely to produce actual products than a NYC kid would.
NYC is the biggest welfare dependent state in the USA when you factor in the fact that most of their income produces nothing. It only leaches off the efforts of hard working Americans through financial arms. It produces little in the way of actual tangible things you can touch.
Biden would effectively place the US under the control of the UN. Have you heard of UN Agenda 21? That is the UN’s plan for the 21st century. Our country would be lost to these designs. Agreed, Trump is very flawed but he is the only one standing in their way. By the way, Agenda 21 is not some conspiracy theory. It’s a well-planned, well-documented strategy put forth by the UN in conjunction with the World Economic Forum, the Davos group. The information is widely available.
Horseshit!
Higher taxes, Paris Accord, probably a carbon tax, a vice-president with the most liberal voting record in the Senate last year
Sounds so good I may have to vote twice or thrice or more.
Trump is the greatest traitor in history! Only traitors vote for Trump!
Ahhh, yes. The Ad hominem and Strawman fallacy together. Brilliant AZ! Good luck catching fish with that bait!
Don’t forget those obnoxious CFL bulbs that I still can’t find a place to recycle…
It’s edging closer to a coin flip. Why would anyone expect this to be a landslide?
Like 2016 this one will come down to the wire.
I’ll make a note
Biden is going crush Trump in the popular vote.
Trump’s only chance is an Electoral College anomaly.
This may end up a test of whether a candidate can lose the popular vote by 8% yet still eke out an EC win.
I love how everyone “knows” things. You don’t know shit. All you know is what you have seen and read from your flavor of news.
The EC is terrible if you are a consumer living in a city. If you are a producer living in rural America it’s a great system. Producers don’t need consumers. They will survive without them. Consumers always need producers though. They will starve without them.
A one party system is generally referred to as a dictatorship.
“All you know is what you have seen and read from your flavor of news.”
Sadly, this is one reason why we are so divided. To wit, nefarious and poisonous ideologies and agendas like critical race theory have replaced critical thinking in most post-secondary institutions (IMHO) — just to really get the pot stirred up here.
Divide and conquer; the media sells it and lots of people are eating it up.
It ain’t fiction folks. The Ministry of Truth will become a reality.
For the longest time I would have agreed with you. I have changed my view on the news. It’s just a capitalist system now. Sure you will find ideologies being pushed but ultimately if the viewers don’t tune in you change to another viewpoint.
I don’t think there is much loyalty to capitalism. In the short term we could say it’s manipulation or ideology but in the longer term business do what makes them the most money. Niche liberal websites are dying and conservative press is growing like crazy. I don’t think for a second the conservative media stands on some moral high ground but they are filling a hole that the liberal media has created.
Btw I don’t believe politics as divided us. I think a century of terrible fiscal policy has shrunk the slice of pie the majority gets to the point they are unhappy. Politics is just the outlet for the frustration because explaining how a central bank has created these problems is outside most people’s comfort zone. By design of course.
The polls do not reflect the unwillingness of people to admit they are for Trump. You can add 10% to Trump’s total in every poll to account for this fact. Trump will beat Biden in a landslide and everyone will wonder how it happened. Morons.
The biggest division in this country right now is the Antifa/BLM terrorists against the citizens who are worried about their families safety. The Democrats have clearly sided with Antifa/BLM and against the safety of American cities. That is what this election is all about.
The main lesson of 2016 was that polls are just polls. Only one poll matters, and that’s the one that uses real ballots. And that one only matters in swing states, apparently.
Abolish the Electoral College anyone? For or against, please speak up. My take is that it’s one more bad piece of a system that is broken and not likely to get fixed.
Against abolishing.
Any change to the EC must take in to account what happens when the election is a tie. Remember 2000? Lawyers parachuting in to Florida. Recounts. Noise. Now, amplify all that by 50. This makes popular vote a non-starter, even without the normal problems popular vote in groups bigger than 1 or 2 hundred have.
Other alternatives? Let’s hear some from practical-minded people who actually know about this stuff and/or can think on their own.
BTW, I’m from a state that had a tie for governor some years ago. Recount, recount, recount, recount until one party ran out of money. That was instructive.
If the US wants to continue to be counted and (kinda sorta) respected as a (kinda sorta) democracy, they’ll have to get rid of the EC.
Etymology of ‘democracy’: Greek ‘Demos’ = the people, ‘kratein’ = rule.
Translation: 1 man/woman = 1 vote – or who else should have the right to vote: square miles, mosquitoes?
EC is made by the plutocrats, for the plutocrats and kept alive long past its sell-by date by the undereducated, whining, intellectually lazy, Fox addicted 40%.
The first “democracy” was Athenian if I recall, and the features of it included election by sortition and audits coming into and out of office….a far cry from how “democracy” operates and is perceived today. In fact, the Athenians considered sortition a key part of “democracy”….because they had much more common sense/understanding of human behavior IMO.
Get rid of the EC. It’s a completely undemocratic anachronism.
I strongly oppose abolishing the Electoral College. The Constitution was intended to be a delicate balance between the populous states and the more sparsely populated states. To give power to the populous states, the House of Representatives is based on population. To give power to the sparsely populated states, the Senate allowed the same number of votes to each state. For a bill to become law, it needs to satisfy the needs of the populous states, and the needs of the less populous states.
The Electoral College maintains the same delicate balance for the Presidential election, and does it effectively. Look at a map of the 2016 election on a county by county bases. The vast majority of the map is Red, while the densely populated areas are blue. The election ends up showing how the balance works. One candidate won the urban vote, and the other won the rural vote. The result was a close election.
If the election was based solely on popular vote, sparsely populated states would be insignificant in the election, and Presidential Candidates would ignore them all. Campaigns would solely focus on the needs of urban voters, and no one else would matter. With the electoral college, power is shifted back slightly in favor of the rural states. The 2016 election showed that the system worked. It was a very close election, but in the end, the rural states were important, too, and not merely slaves to the urban centers.
No sane rural state would agree to abolish the Electoral College, anyway, so this may be a moot point. You’d need to have 2/3 of the states agree to it and since most of them are rural, you’d have to get a large number of rural states to agree to give up having any say in who is President for it to happen.
I was going to say the same thing, but you did it much better. The Electoral College is NOT broken, it is functioning exactly as intended. Four of five urban areas would vote 50%+1 for their own interests and the rest of the Union be damned. The big cities can still have their way, but they basically need to get a better than 51% simple majority to swing a vote, and that’s a very good thing.
Let’s also not shy away from the fact the Founders considered democracy mob rule and IMO were rightly afraid of it. So the EC was designed to moderate democracy which was why the Senate was made 6 year terms and originally appointed by governors. Further, you had to qualify to be voter- one of which was being a taxpayer/landowner, a qualification that should frankly be brought back. (though the rest of the qualifications were not meritocratic and rightfully dispensed with)
And yet no one actually pays attention to the so called small states. 6 states, six relatively populous states, receive 85% of all campaign spending and 99% of campaign visits. The EC never actually worked as advertised (see elections of 1796 and 1800) and was just turned into another mistake the founding fathers made trying to let the elite continue to make the decisions. They should have just abolished it with the 12th amendment instead of just turning into another way of removing the voice of the people.
It’s only because those states almost always end up being the “battleground” states due to the other states already having their minds too made up to waste campaign money on. It’s quirky, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with the system.
The Electoral College wasn’t some brilliant idea of the Founders. It was a compromise between a “popular vote” faction and a faction who wanted Congress to pick the president.
Here’s why I oppose it: If you’re a Republican in California or a Democrat in Alabama, your presidential vote means NOTHING. Because your “electors” are all going to vote for the other candidate.
I’m a conservative living in California, and yes it absolutely sucks that I basically cannot vote in a national election…but I am so glad the founders were BRILLIANT enough to reach this BRILLIANT compromise. I would hate living in say, Kansas, but being under mob rule from the “forward” thinkers in New York, San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles. EC is very fair and sensible.
No can do. The electoral college ensures that every state has a voice in the election. Take it away, and you’ll begin to see calls for secession. Also, to actually accomplish that, takes, I think, two thirds of the states to agree.
People don’t understand our presidential election. It is an election of individual states weighted by their populations. So in simple terms, each state has a vote and the person with the most votes for president wins. To flush out the real system a state may have more than one vote if it is larger. The final system is each state gets votes for the president based on their populations in relation to other states. People keep referring to the popular and our system isn’t set up like that AT ALL. Why you may ask? Because we are the UNITED States. Each state gets a say. You have an election of states and that is what matters now and what mattered 200 years ago. No state is ignored. The vote from Wyoming (as an example) carries much more weight in an election of states than it does in a popular vote. The system was never intended to be a popular vote. In fact, it was set up to avoid mob mentality. It was set up to curb the power of the larger states over the smaller ones. All the dems need to do to win an election is quit worrying about which bathrooms people have a right to use and start worrying about things that are actually important to the American people like jobs. They refuse to change their platform and instead of taking the hint they want to change the rules. The rules are there so you can’t force a liberal agenda (at least too liberal) on the midwest who have more conservative values. If you want to win a national election Dems, then just come back to the middle a bit and get rid of the socialists in your party. The midwest and southeast might start listening to you then.
Once you become the President, a second term is yours if you just act like the President of all the people, and not the head of a family business in Sicily. I voted for Trump in 2016 and Obama twice because I am a sucker for promises of change. I threw my ballot (Colorado mails them to us) in the trash. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me 3 times, a lot of shame on me.
Lesser-evil voting perpetuates crappy choices of candidates.
“Less than perfect” is way too kind for both Biden and Trump. “Not acceptable” is better.
So are not CNN, MSNBC and all the major networks partisan shops? Every polling shop is partisan.
“Every polling shop is partisan.”
Quite frankly, that is bullshit. The pollsters for the most part have a vested interest in getting it correct.
You believe conspiracy nonsense
umm, I’m a woman who lives in the suburbs – Trump 2020 without a doubt
Anyone who believes anything “without a doubt” can’t be taken seriously.
thanks for joining today–are you a secret Trump voter?
She lives in the Moscow suburbs, of course she’s for Dipshit.
ReTrumpliQAnon Science: Count the yard signs.
Democrat Science: Geez, nobody votes for racists and fools.
Social Science: Do the work. Do the interviews – run the numbers – then question everything.
I handed out Republican materials to registered R voters who came out for Trump last time but not a reliable voter, and I had nearly as many Biden signs in yards as I did Trump signs/flags. Out of 300 homes, 8 Trump, 5 Biden.
So you prefer the red flavor of Fed printing rather than the blue flavor?
I see what you did there.
I think Trump wins Texas but I’m far less sure of that outcome than I was a month ago. There is some polling that shows Biden ahead. It will be close
It’s hard to imagine after Biden’s end the oil industry bit.
I don’t think oil is the big issue this year. And the campaign walked it back
Texas demographics are shifting Blue. Trump has exacerbated that.
It’ll be close this year (I’m predicting Trump takes TX by about 2%).
Whether it goes blue now or not isn’t consequential. By 2030 Texas will be Blue. Once that happens, it’ll be a decade before the GOP re-gears for the new reality and occupies the White House. GOP can’t start a national election by spotting the Dems Texas, California and New York.
Trump has lost seniors and suburban women. He’s lost about 5% of tradition republicans. He’s made some gains with hispanic and black less educated males. It won’t be enough. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and won many swing states with slim majorities. It’s very doubtful he can win. High turnout is usually a negative for Republicans too.
This year’s October surprise will be no October surprise. Hunter biden fizzled. And after Borat and tuckgate I suspect Rudy is now benched
re: Hunter
Meh
On top of that Sechel, veterans normally vote GOP about 80% of the time, this time it will be a lot closer to 55%. Maybe does not sound like a huge segment of the population but the VA healthcare system serves 21 million vets. And in places like WI or OH, or FL, where it will be very close indeed they can have enough impact to change the outcome.
Yep Trump is polling wiht veterans and servicemen better than Obama did but worse than just about any Republican President we’ve ever had. Attacking the leaders of the military probably has not helped
Suckers and losers didn’t help him either!
Ah, the “suckers and losers” lie. What next? RusssiaRussiaRussia?
Lie? You are the liar here MM, and of course you know that because I suspect that you also work for the FSB. After all your account here is how many days old?
If it is a lie then it comes from the US Senate Intelligence Comittee headed by a republican.
And then there is the Mueller Report which came to the same conclusions:
link to en.wikipedia.org,the%202016%20United%20States%20presidential
As to the “suckers and losers” comment Trump did make, link to theatlantic.com
You are not a republican, not a Trump supporter, and certainly not an American, because anyone that hates the nation as much as you do can only be an enemy of the country who would have left a long time ago if you even ever set foot on US soil. By the way, did I mention russian food is about as delightful as boiled garbage? And your women all look like Boris Yeltsin with a wig?
Something like 7% of those who twitter send 74% of all tweets and the same thing can be said of those responding to polls today. Those who answer polls are a vanishing small subset of people who vote. Now that being doxed is a real threat since nothing can remain private anymore I would suggest that people who respond to pollsters are not representative. No matter how you mathematically manipulate the data if the data is garbage the result is garbage. Ten years ago I would answer a pollster. Today I wouldn’t dare to because I don’t know where my data would end up.
If Trump somehow wins, this will be the reason: his voters don’t even show up on the internet (like my elderly relation). That said, as a middle aged man I might vote Trump in Virginia only as a protest vote though I favor Biden (Trump has no chance of winning based on conventional logic).
The Hunter Biden story is not meaningless. It is proof positive of Biden’s corruption. In addition, Biden is senile, and cannot control what comes out of his mouth.
He just said “we have put together, I think, the most extensive and and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics”.
Really? You idiots want to put a man in the White House who cannot control the words that he speaks? Even Pelosi knows he is incompetent, and will begin 25th Amendment proceedings against him unless he voluntarily steps down.
Do you really think black people are going to come out in force and vote for Harris after she imprisoned them in wholesale fashion for her own political career?
The only way Biden can win this thing is if the voting process is hijacked and the election is stolen. I would not put it past the Democrats and the Washington swamp to do just that.
Dallas News poll–it’s the geezers who want Trump
18-24: +63 BIDEN
25-34: +29 BIDEN
35-44: +4 BIDEN
45-65: +9 TRUMP
65+: +16 TRUMP
Does not make much sense when you consider that the GOP is doing everything it can to end social security. Disabled vets also are at risk when they hit 62 the GOP want to end “unemployability” for vets at age 62. It means that vets would lose more than half their income on their 62nd birthday, income that is barely enough to make it as it is would be slashed by more than half. Their “reasoning” is that once you hit 62 you can go on reduced SS benefits that would replace the VA disability, except that veterans who have UNEMPLOYABILITY do not qualify for regular SS because for the most part they have not been employed. Some already do get SS disability so would not qualify for regular SS at all.
Now along comes Trump’s payroll holiday he says he will make permanent if elected. The trust fund would go broke in less than 2 years and benefits would be slashed, and soon after end entirely.
My mom (62 years old) is voting for the first time in her life. She’s voting for Trump. I’m in your middle demographic and voting for Trump, as well…after not voting for him last time.
The whole idea that I am voting FOR someone, rather than AGAINST someone, makes me think that I’ll be voting for the winning candidate.
I’d love to hear what’s driving you both to the polls this time around. What are the issues you’re voting for?
Ultimately, the ONLY poll that counts is the final count in the final county in the final State. But even that is dubious this year with the mass mailing of unsolicited ballots to people on the voter registration rolls–even the dead! And THAT, my friends, is a Richard Daly move of the highest caliber. Cheaters NEVER win and winners NEVER cheat. This is the PERFECT STORM for the lying, cheating DNC.