Live Blog
Some polls are expected today that are not yet in. I will add new polls, if any, to the end of this post.
What’s Changed?
Not much today.
Spotlight Iowa
Yesterday Selzer came out with an Iowa poll that has Trump plus 7.
On the basis of A+rated Selzer, Silver moved Trump’s odds of winning to 64%.
Polls Today
The polls today are more Biden-friendly.
What Polls Remain?
Strike YouGov off the list. They averaged their polls and made predictions. Silver does not factor in predictions.
The Undecideds
The undecideds seem to breaking for Trump, but there were far fewer of them.
Legal Battle
I do not care who you are for, you should want an honest election where votes are counted.
Team Trump does not want votes counted.
Even worse, Texas and Minnesota Republicans purposely allowed procedures and are now fighting them after over 100,000 votes have been cast.
Pennsylvania is in a similar situation due to unclear Supreme Court rulings.
The legal battles are as I described yesterday in Republican Attempt to Steal the Election Has No Bounds
My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes
Iowa is suspect but unless things change further I am sticking with my forecast as of October 13.
Please see My Fearless Election Forecast and Range of Outcomes for discussion.
The three states I highlighted then are the same states that I still have close to 50-50 today: Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia.
I still see record turnout as favoring Biden and I do not believe that is properly factored in.
Not 2016
This is not 2016 so don’t expect a repeat. For discussion, please see Eight Reasons This is Not 2016
New Polls
None as of 12 Noon November 1.
Mish
Put me down for: there’s not going to be election “stealing,” chaos, or civil war. Maybe some courts have to decide some things. Maybe.
But I also predict ceaseless hysterical predictions of chaos across all social media.
More shutdowns and lockdowns like Joe Biden has promised are NOT winning issues.
are the ballooning ncov case counts trump promised a winning issue? on the positive side, this is a promise he’s actually kept so credit where credit’s due…
Death rates from Covid have crashed about -80% based on confirmed stats by CDC starting in the middle of September and death rates have crashed -97% based on the preliminary data for the week ending 10/24/2020
The cases are now mostly among the young to whom Covid is much much less deadly.
In the beginning DEMOCRAT governors in New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Illinois FORCED nursing homes to take Covid patients leading to massive infections in nursing homes and massive numbers of deaths estimated at 12k in New York alone caused by Cuomo according to estimates but the real number has not been revealed because Cuomo is fighting against DOJ that is trying to look into the issue.
The treatments have now gotten better also because in the beginning hospitals put everyone automatically on vents after a certain oxygen levels were reached and this was found to be a stupid treatment method in May when some hospitals WARNED against this practice based on their findings and since June ventilators have been only rarely used.
Also many people are now given steroids to prevent some of the complications Covid can cause just like Trump got steroids too.
Also many doctors are giving their patients HCQ and Henry Ford Hospitals found that if Covid patients who are sick enough to need hospitalization are given HCQ immediately after admission this lowers death rates over -50%:
CDC stats show that deaths are now under 4000 per week for whole of USA since middle of September and CDC projections based on preliminary data show deaths crashing to 2304 per week in the week ending 10/17/2020 and absolute cratering to 535 deaths per week in the week ending 10/24/2020.
The fact that media is NOT reporting this and instead wants to frighten Americans that Covid is horrible and Trump is to blame for everything is banana republic level brainwashing just to get Joe “shutdown” Biden elected.
The shutdown of whole USA that Biden has promised if an “expert” recommends it to him is coming if he wins and Fauci has already demanded a shutdown until end of Winter providing the “expert” opinion that Biden wanted means that if Biden wins US economy will be totally destroyed by a shutdown of whole USA, tens of millions will become unemployed and millions of businesses will go bankrupt and the desperation caused will lead to suicides, drug overdoses, drug use and alcoholism and that in turn will lead to violence and abuse inside families and the “cure” by Biden will be 100 times worse than the disease.
In Europe France, Italy and Spain and UK had long time total shutdowns that destroyed people’s lives and their economies and still Covid bounced back after the shutdowns were lifted so one can NOT stop the Coronavirus through a shutdown.
Sigmund Stanislaus “Sig” Sakowicz was always my favorite Pole in Chicago. Great radio shows.
Yep, this is the way it will play and Biden will be conceding by 3am Weds.
Trump will win but Biden will NOT concede and there will be 2 weeks of Democrat/leftist/BLM/Antifa riots.
FactsonJoe,
Hey looser…..Trump just got Fired…..White house clown is out…
I expect Trump to win. He will win because he will cheat. His life has been built on lies and on cheating: Every woman he has married he cheated on. Every loan he has gotten he lied to get it. Every deal he has made he has cheated on it. For Trump lying and cheating is a way of life that has worked for him so he will do it again.
Blah, blah blah….FatsonJoe must be on fetal position now…Cult Trump Got Fired!! Bunch of clowns…
Scary thought: Say Trump loses and concedes. Will he ride off into off into the sunset like Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc.? Not to be heard from again (except for the occasional campaign support).
Or will he be a soar loser for the rest of his life tying to prove that his presidency was the greatest in history?
Will the Republicans still cower as Trump continues to endlessly blame and lambast.
Or will his loss shut him up for good?
If he gets a TV show, he could be dangerous.
If Trump loses in 2020, I expect 1 of the 2 following outcomes by 2024:
Trump goes to prison for obstruction (Mueller volume 2) and/or tax fraud.
He will run for Prez again in 2024 and get the GOP nomination hands-down.
Yikes! He can do that?
Presidents are limited to two terms. They don’t have be consecutive. However in 2024 Trump will be a very syphilitic 77/78 years old.
If he wins, the only thing that’s keeping him from a 3rd term is that pesky 22nd amendment.
Maybe we should just get rid of that amendment, considering how unfairly he’s been treated over the past 4 years, right?
What are the facts? Trump leads a cult with 30-40M members. What would YOU do if you led a cult of that size? Give it up?
The Trump crime family is playing the LONG game here. Until someone puts a silver bullet through its heart, they control the conservative movement.
It’s the middle of Fall Season, great time for strawman reasoning, especially under a full moon. My fantasy is Biden to win, but Hillary riding in on her broom to be inaugurated. Let’s get this manure show into high gear!
Myself I am looking forward to seeing this over. Everyone in the political media is predicting chaos, mayhem, destruction,civil war, continuing bad haircuts and popular music getting worse and worse. I am curious to see what really happens after. Anyone want to take some bets?
I have to bet in favor of bad haircuts and popular music getting worse.
They are so bad now they might get a dead cat bounce.
They say polls are fake news, Trump will win and marxist leftists will cry again…
Maybe Iowa goes for Trump…..but if NC goes for Biden then it won’t matter…..that more than makes up for Iowa.
Biden by bedtime….
Btw, for all those who want more financial and economic articles from Mish….I’m sure he’s looking forward to getting back to that too. I’m looking forward to it, and to arguing with him about more savory topics.