I expected a big bounce for Joe Biden after his massive South Carolina win. In the absence of fresh polls I made Fearless Forecast: What to Expect on Super Tuesday.

Two hours later Amy Klobuchar dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden. I expected both of those but not until after Super Tuesday (today - voting is underway).

With that unexpected event I addressed the question How Did Klobuchar Dropping Out Impact Super Tuesday?

In that post I raised expectations for Biden but it was a guess.

I projected Biden to win 7 states, Standers 6, and warren 1. I gave Sanders a plurality of delegates but commented "It is possible Biden wins the most delegates in addition to the most states. "

My delegate count was 503 for Sanders, 477 for Biden, 210 for Warren, and 155 for Bloomberg.

New Polls

It's hard making predictions without polls, but I took a stab at Bernie winning Texas anyway.

Today we have a flurry of polls so I am revising again.

My California Call (Unchanged)

  • Sanders: 35 - 42% of the delegates - 175 delegates
  • Biden: 26 - 31% of the delegates - 129 delegates
  • Warren: 18 - 21% of the Delegates - 87 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 13 - 6% of the delegates - 25 delegates

My Texas Call

  • Sanders: 29 - 33% of the delegates - 75 delegates +2
  • Biden: 30 - 38% of the delegates - 87 delegates +9
  • Warren: 15 - 10% of the Delegates - 23 delegates -11
  • Bloomberg: 17 - 19% of the delegates - 43 delegates +0

My Virginia Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 29% of the delegates - 29 delegates -6
  • Biden: 30 - 55% of the delegates - 55 delegates +16
  • Bloomberg: 13 - 8% of the delegates - 7 delegates -18
  • Warren 13 - 8% of the delegates - 8 delegates +8

Previously I noted stale VA polls. This is a huge change.

My North Carolina Call

  • Sanders: 22 - 25% of the delegates - 28 delegates -11
  • Biden: 40 - 65% of the delegates - 71 delegates +21
  • Bloomberg: 13 - 10% of the delegates - 11 delegates -10

Previously I noted stale NC polls. This is another huge change.

My Minnesota Call

  • Sanders: 29 - 40% of the delegates - 30 delegates -5
  • Biden: 22 - 34% of the delegates - 26 delegates +4
  • Warren 16 - 16% of the delegates - 11 delegates -7
  • Bloomberg 12 - 10% of the delegates - 8 delegates +8

My Massachusetts Call

  • Sanders: 25 - 32% of the delegates - 29 delegates -4
  • Warren: 27 - 36% of the delegates - 33 delegates -3
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 17% of the delegates - 15 delegates +4
  • Biden: 16 - 15% of the delegates - 14 delegates +3

My Colorado Call (unchanged)

  • Sanders: 27 - 42% of the delegates - 28 delegates
  • Warren: 19 - 34% of the delegates - 23 delegates
  • Bloomberg: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates
  • Biden: 15 - 12% of the delegates - 8 delegates

Subtotals

  • Sanders: 175 CA + 75 TX + 29 VA + 28 NC + 30 MN +29 MA + 28 CO = 394 was 418
  • Biden: 129 CA + 87 TX + 55 VA + 71NC +26MN +14 MA + 8 CO = 390 was 337
  • Warren 87 CA + 23 TX +8 VA +11MN + 33MA + 23 CO = 185 was 198
  • Bloomberg 25 CA + 43 TX + 7 VA + MN 8 + 11 NC +15 MA +8 CO = 119 was 131

Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, Maine and Vermont are also Super Tuesday states.

I expect Biden to win Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Sanders will win Utah. Maine, and Vermont.

I expect Biden will win another 140 out of those extra states, Sanders another 85, Bloomberg another 30, and Warren another 12.

Super Tuesday Delegate Totals

  • Sanders: was 519 then 503 now 479
  • Biden: was 432 then 477 now 530
  • Warren: was 146 then 210 mow 197
  • Bloomberg: was 203 then 155 now 149
  • Klobuchar: was 45 now 0

Sanders vs Not Sanders

  • Sanders: was 519 then 503 now 479
  • Not Sanders: was 826 then 842 now 876

Liberals vs Moderates

  • Sanders + Warren = 676
  • Moderates = 679

State Winners

Sanders: CA, MN, CO, UT, ME, VT (6)

Biden: TX, VA, NC, AL, OK, AK, TN (7)

Warren: MA (1)

I now expect a small plurality for Biden with some of his best states coming up, notably Florida and Georgia.

Bernie Has Peaked!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock