Trump is ahead of Biden when it comes to positive enthusiasm. Unfortunately for Trump, he is way behind in negative enthusiasm.
That spread is what’s killing Trump at the polls.
Not a 2016 Replay
For many month, I have commented this is not a replay of 2016. Trump was never well liked, but many people in both parties despised Hillary.
Trump won in 2016 for five reasons.
- People hated Hillary more than Trump
- Trump was an unknown risk that swing voters were willing to take a chance on
- Hillary ran a very poor campaign
- A fantastic campaign slogan: Make America Great Again
- At the last minute, Comey rescued trump with an attack on Hillary and her email server.
Points 1-4 got Trump into the ballpark. It still took Point 5 to cross the finish line.
Despite all of those things Trump barely won as measured by tiny margins of victory in several critical swing states.
Why Trump — Not Biden — Has An Enthusiasm Problem
Five-Thirty-Eight finally picked up on point number 1 in its report Why Trump — Not Biden — Might Have An Enthusiasm Problem.
Polls consistently show that Trump’s supporters are more excited to vote for him than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s supporters are to vote for him. For example, half of Trump supporters in a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll said they were “very excited” about their candidate, compared to just 27 percent of Biden backers. Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale even described their enthusiasm advantage over Biden as “the most important factor in the campaign.” But the significance of this “enthusiasm gap” is exaggerated.
First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower as of the last survey conducted at the end of June.
Net Enthusiasm
What’s especially notable here is that Biden’s net enthusiasm rating is near zero, which is similar to most major-party presidential candidates’ ratings from 1980 to 2012. Trump’s current score of around -20, on the other hand, has only one historical comparison other than his own campaign four years ago: Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The Man People Hate to Hate
Biden is a man people hate to hate. Trump and Hillary are candidates people love to hate.
Trump cannot exploit Biden on race, sex, religion, or age. All Trump has right now is “Sleepy Joe”.
In 2016, Trump had “Crooked Hillary”.
Trump Approval Rating
Recent Polls
Key Polling Ideas
- Pollsters want to get it right except for internal biased polls.
- The 2016 polls were not that far wrong. They were within margins of errors.
- Were it not for a last minute Comey rescue, Trump would have lost. And that Comey surge was not reflected in state polls where it mattered.
Factors
- There are less than 4 months to the election.
- It is no longer early (but it also is not irrecoverably late).
- Trump’s path of victory is extremely narrow.
- Biden’s path of victory is wide.
- The economy is in recession.
- Swing voters indicate they are sick of Trump.
- People strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of Covid.
- People strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of George Floyd.
- Trump just cannot stay away from inane Tweets of all sorts.
- Biden is doing well hiding in the basement. That won’t last forever.
The only point above that possibly favors Trump is point number 10.
Real Clear Politics Election Map
The above map from Real Clear Politics is a joke. Those alleged tossups are not close to tossups.
270-to-Win
The above map is from 270-to-Win
This is the first time all year where a generic map matches my own view.
Key Points
- Florida and Pennsylvania are in Biden’s camp, not tossups.
- Ohio is in the tossup category.
- Trump is losing ground in Texas, Georgia, and Iowa.
Trump has fewer and fewer states in which he will not have to campaign. He cannot even ignore Texas, Georgia, or Iowa.
It is possible for Trump to win but it ridiculous to ascertain Trump will win, is leading, or even tied at this point.
Predictit has Biden at 61 cents. I think Biden has about a 75% chance at this point.
Trump is Trailing Badly in All Recent Florida Polls: Why?
The above 270-to-Win map matches the one I created on June 27.
Trump was getting killed on several issues: Covid, defections, and immigration. Defections have since increased.
For further discussion, please see Trump is Trailing Badly in All Recent Florida Polls: Why?
Mish
Trump is without a doubt dragging down the Republican Party to the extent that they are in jeopardy of losing the Senate. If the GOP wants to avoid a landslide come November then they need to strong arm Trump to stand down for health or some other reason and find a credible replacement. Unfortunately, the VP has proven to be more of a Trump sycophant so not sure he can be their saviour. The GOP is now in a whole world of self induced hurt.
Re the debates
Biden should absolutely follow Tom Friedman’s advice and only agree to debates under these 2 conditions:
debates as part of the official programming.
Yep, Trump is the man to demonstrate the inanity of American exceptionalism. 4 more years would be most amusing. Except it would probably lead to chaos, war and assist the rise in power of other even nastier imperial powers and petty dictators. Biden is on the way out but presumably will appoint people who are not ignorant narcissists and psychopaths
I’m surprised Mish has only 75% for Biden win, it looks bad for Trump here and I expect him to make things worse for himself as time goes, such as this whole secret-police-in-Portland narrative that the Dems are pushing for all it’s worth. (Btw the rioters are in full force as I write this tonight — that makes FIFTY days of riots in Portland … and our mayor blames Trump.)
I picked up Biden for 44 cents a while back based on Mish’s analysis. Fully expect that to pay off.
Trump and Obama are virtually one and the same,same economic policies ie pump trillions $$ into the Wall Street banks while the Main Street economy rots on the vines (literally)!Obama got reelected (???)by offering a few Snap cards and govt cheese to the masses while pocketing millions in kickbacks from Wall Street,can that strategy work for Trump?
Last election a lot of folks hated Hilary Clinton so in retrospect it was not entirely a surprise when she lost. This go round I would go as far as to say a lot of folks despise Trump. He will of course win the traditional red state strongholds but after that he is in deep doo doo. Would love to see Mish handicap the upcoming senate races. The way things are going it would not be a total surprise to me if the Dems capture the senate. Interesting times to say the least.
The only thing the poll proves is the existence of Trump Derangement Syndrome by the fanatical left. We already knew they have a rabid hatred for Trump, that’s nothing new.
It is logical that Trump supporters would more compassionate, and not as deranged and rabid, as liberals.
While they do not want to see Biden in office, it is a little harsh to say you “hate” a guy who’s mental capacity is so diminished, needs to wear a bracelet with his address on it.
Hillary Hatred got Trump in just as King Chaos Hatred will get Biden in.
Biden won’t even need a catchy “lock him up” chant to enthuse his crowds.
Its been a f*cking l-o-n-g four years.
tRump is well aware of the disaster He created with the pandemic, so he will do everything to detour American peoples attention away from the pandemic. What better way can he achieve that than proactively provoking a war with China or Iran? Look at what his administration has been doing: first trade wars, then smearing campaigns Against China on every possible front, including laws and sanctions related to Hongkong, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, South China Sea etc. as of now, 2 US aircraft carriers are doing all possible provocations near Chinese coast.
Good luck with that. Hard to ignore friends and family dying because of Trumps ineptitude.
I don’t understand all the stats here, but just as a very basic observation: the fact that Biden supporters dislike Trump strongly but Trump supporters don’t dislike Biden as strongly suggests that Trump has more moderate, less partisan people on his side, i.e. swing voters. In other words, it looks like the only people voting for Biden are those who hate Trump. But the ones voting for Trump are the ones who hate Biden and some others.
Qne debate and all the data and polls listed could be irrelevant.
Biden has multiple paths to not debate tRump.
it’s safe to assume (enough) people strongly disapprove of Trump.
“he was campaigning against the previous African American President and a woman challenger basically leveraging as much black prejudice and misogyny he could muster. ”
What he was running against was the status quo, of a liberal bureaucracy that people feared was going to ruin the country. What he is running against this November is the reality that it has. What he is running against is the image of liberals looting and pillaging in an attempt to gain their agenda through terrorism. What he is running against in November is the results of the governance of the Democratic party in the failed cities and States country wide. What he is running against is allowing the Democrats to do to the rest of America, what they have already done to everyplace they now control.
People are already voting, they are doing it with their feet as they flee the liberal cities and States that have now turned into hell on earth. Do you think they will vote to bring what they are fleeing to the rest of America?
First, polls are garbage. We learned that in the last election. I can engineer a poll that will say anything you want it to say.. And the media as we know are all shameless liars.
Second, I cannot believe you use the word “enthusiasm” while discussing Trump and Biden. NO ONE and I mean NO ONE is “enthusiastic” about Biden. How can you be enthusiastic about a guy who is so addled he spends most of his time lost in a broom closet.
Mish, you really need to stick to economics, because your public demonstration of Trump derangement syndrome does nothing for your credibility, except detract from it. Trump may have issues, but we are used to his verbal gaffs and do not pay any attention any more, but the entire Democratic party is quickly becoming radioactive from its support of BLM, Antifa, and the domestic terrorism that is mislabeled by media as protests.
Fact is, the American people are fed up and sick to their stomachs of liberal terrorism and everyone who supports it. That is the major issue coming up in November as our liberal cities and States devolve into third world cesspools because of Marxist liberal policies.. Something you already know a little bit about…
I’m in the UK, so an outside observer.
I would not be surprised to see Trump win. Factors in his favour – the riots. People simply don’t want to see their neighbourhoods smashed up and burnt. They don’t want to think about what would happen if they were fired for expressing an opinion. They don’t want to think about being taxed to pay reparations to other Americans whose sufferings are mainly (in the modern era only) down to their own life decisions. BLM only as far as its white police doing the killing. When white kids are killed by black gang bangers, when white cops are killed by black gang bangers, there is no uproar expect in people’s hearts, where it counts.
Think about the American dream. Who personifies that?
Biden?
Trump?
And stuff is starting to leak out. Stuff like Biden’s comments in 1977 about mixed race schools. Stuff like Trump’s success on cracking down on trafficking – many times over what Obama has achieved.
And I also think Americans like fair play. Despite all of Trump’s childishness, the Media/Democrat hysteria-echo-chamber looks silly to a lot of people. I am pretty sure that most ordinary Americans see right through the BLM nonsense as yet another ruse to overthrow democracy, just like here in the UK.
My money is on Trump.
I’ll take the other side of that bet. How much do you have?
I would agree that the American public (UK also) does not want their property or communities burnt down or smashed up, but this was all on Trump’s watch. He is the great divider with his foolish twits.
The last time Trump won swing states PA, WI, and MI with less than 75000 votes, this is not going to happen again. Better off keeping your money my friend.
It seems almost impossible for a thinking individual to actually believe in Trump or Biden, so the dislike factor will be huge.
Does either candidate have a discernible platform? We have entered a post-ideology America, the only remaining goal is to prevent the “greater evil” candidates from screwing things up worse than they already are.
For this election cycle, both candidates support Fed meddling and ZIRP, which is pretty much all you need to know. No matter what happens in November, the status quo will be maintained.
Well, evict the incumbent then… and keep doing it. We shouldn’t be rewarding failure.
Mish,
has there ever been a poll on who answers or doesn’t answer poll questions?
Do people really talk to any random j- o- who calls their house?
Clearly another globalist plot, eh?
Forget the polls, most people like myself would brush them off. How many voters in the USA do they actually contact? Miniscule numbers. Like in 2016 the silent majority will prevail . Also many voters are scared to death of the Biden economy. Like 2016 Trump will carry the states that he won then.
Many voters may be scared to death of the Biden economy, but they are dying of tRump plague now.
This is an interesting thing though. I live in a red state, and I don’t know anyone who has the virus, or anyone who knows anyone who has it. No one here is worried about it. Everyone I talk to says the same thing. The only people I hear of that are getting it (or seriously worried about getting it) are people in big cities, i.e. mostly blue voters. Trump’s handling of the virus may be bad, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that it will harm him in the election.
In contrast, people everywhere are affected by the economic aspect of the virus, and even if Trump is handling that part badly too, people are more likely to respond to his decisiveness and confidence when they’re worried about their jobs.
They are neither silent, nor a majority, and the sound of their tantrums shakes the very ground.
You truly do not understand polls, the logic behind them, or what margins of error are.
Dream on.
the world will be a better place without Trump ! YEAH , right ! In yer fckn dreams !
The world would be a better place without 95+% of those in government. Trump’s just one of many.
I see you have accepted donald trump as your personal lord and savior.
Looks like America is going from a party duopoly to a one party state.
This has historical parallels to the 1932 election. The Republicans may well take 20 years to recover from Trump.
That’s how it works. The republicans break the economy, lose power, and complain incessantly until it’s fixed again. People forget who broke it in the first place, and elect republicans, who then break the economy again.
The Wall Street Party t’is the one & only, baby.
Realist, your focus is way to narrow. Much of economic outcome occurs post-presidency.
Case in point: Reagan willingly accepted a Fed-induced recession in order to tame inflation. And, as a communicator, he was the last president before Obama to persuade any sort of economic mindset change, and it paid dividends for decades. Clinton gets credit for the 90’s but did nothing to deserve it, just went along for the ride.
It is being undone and so the best election outcome we can hope for would be gridlock; a Republican congress with Biden (agree with Carl).