Suddenly Trump no longer looks invincible. Of, course, his invisibility was nothing but an illusion in the minds of rabid supporters all along.
The lead image is from 538 Presidential Polls. Here’s one more clip.
Ohio
“C/D” is the 538 rating of the pollster. It’s not very high, and it is just one poll.
Public Policy Polling, rated “B”, has Biden ahead by one point in Texas.
Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November
On April 28, I noted the Extremely Difficult Setup for Trump to Win in November.
Pennsylvania is Key
The biggest swing state headed for Biden is Pennsylvania with 20 Electoral College Votes.
Note that a Fox News poll conducted April 18-21 gives Biden an 8-point lead.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia and all the states I marked as tossups then still win (270 on the nose).
My map is actually generous to Trump. Mentally I have Florida as slightly leans Biden and Nevada as leans Biden.
Ohio and What We Don’t Know
I rate Ohio as a tossup due to lack of polls. Ohio is crucial to Trump so mentally move that into his column if you prefer.
Without any polls I suspect Iowa may be in play. And if it turns into a rout, not exactly unlikely, even Texas could be in play for Biden.
Guess What?
Texas is in play.
Biden could indeed win Texas.
Battleground States
Ohio was not supposed to be a battleground state. But it is. And Texas may become one as well.
That was unexpected in nearly every corner but this one.
Trump Presented with Grim Internal Poll
Please consider Trump presented with grim internal polling showing him losing to Biden
President Trump’s advisers presented him with the results of internal polling last week that showed him falling behind former vice president Joe Biden in key swing states in the presidential race, part of an effort by aides to curtail Trump’s freewheeling daily briefings on the coronavirus pandemic, according to three people with knowledge of the conversations.
One call on Wednesday — with Parscale patched in from his home in Florida and McDaniel from hers in Michigan — was designed to present grim polling data to the president to encourage him to reduce the frequency of coronavirus briefings or to stop taking questions, after seeing his numbers slip for several weeks, officials said.
Trump resisted the pleas, saying people “love” the briefings and think he is “fighting for them,” a person with knowledge of the Wednesday conversation said.
People Love the Briefings?! Really?
No, they don’t, except for reporter who like to bait Trump and succeed.
Trump’s Lysol Moment
Trump’s support base does like his message. They even believe Trump regarding his Lysol Moment: His Most Ridiculous Comment Ever.
In case you missed it, Trump promoted the idea of internal disinfectants. Then two people from Georgia got sick drinking Lysol and hot lines in several states received calls on how to drink it safely.
Take No Blame or Advice
Trump will take no blame for any of this. Nor will he take advice from his advisors who advised him to just shut up and let the experts talk.
But hey, Trump does not believe them, nor does his rabid base. Why?
hey don’t say what Trump wants to hear: Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah, Trump is the greatest.
So don’t expect any changes in Trump’s behavior.
Words of Caution
These polls are early. November is still 6 months away but the election map, Trump’s handing of Covid-19, the recession, and the thought of 4 more years of Trump to swing voters all weigh against Trump.
It’s not impossible for Trump to win in November, but it is a very uphill battle from here.
This is Not 2016
Many swing voters gave Trump a nod in in 2016 simply because they despised Hillary.
Many of those same swing voters have had enough of Trump’s divisive treatment of allies, his belittling of everyone but himself, and his handling of Covid-19.
Trump’s Need for Adulation Outweighs his Covid-19 Concerns
Trump is going through withdrawal.
He desperately needs screaming fan cheering him on at big rallies even as the independents and swing voters drop him in droves.
Trump announced he will start a campaign tour, Covid-19 be damned. He wants every seat full.
For details, please see Trump’s Need for Adulation Outweighs his Covid-19 Concerns.
Mish
What that Stalin guy said
I have it on good authority that the DNC will be bringing back Jimmy Carter as the democratic Presidential contender–he still has one term before he hits his limit.
It appears that American voters will have to choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden to be our next President. It could be said many voters are not jumping with joy.
Both of these men are old. Biden sports signs of dementia and has been accused of corruption. Trump is considered divisive and not as truthful as many people would like. The article below argues are flawed presidential election process is responsible for giving America such poor choices.
Respectfully, Trump is a child when speaking, but if I look without emotions on the things he has done, I have to conclude it has been a fairly effective presidency. Look how many lying snakes in the deep state he has rooted out. This is not dem vs gop. This is deep state operatives operating outside the law vs. america. The FBI is corrupt. Trump proved it. He didn’t go along with the status quo. So, no, Hillary would not have won. Trump would have won bigger. Did I mention I think Trump is a child that never grew up? But hillary is a corrupt politician who is very sneaky and who wears a “mao suit” (her words) in her march toward communism in the USA.
Polls… LOL.
Mish jumping on the poll-watcher bandwagon… because it’s worked wonders for progs/lefties in recent election, eh?
Keep watching garbage polls… keep getting it all wrong.
Without casting aspersions on you Mish look at the comments here. They reflect the views similar to the men who stormed the Michigan legislature. Obama haters (because he was brown) and Trump sycophants-they aren’t necessarily the same groups. They can’t see due to their blinkered views of the world. You have a valuable blog of quality discourse. Unfortunately the company you keep does not reflect the intellect you possess. It disappoints me to read the comments knowing most here are fucking morons- that are bigoted and stupid. Many have not lived anywhere other than the US. There is no perspective – the North Pole does not run through NY and every empire fails at some time. You and your fellow citizens need to take heed. If the US adopts the Trump regime for 4 more years – I will bet dollars to donuts that the US falls as a super power.
Your un-blinkered, full perspective worldly views are:
2.most here are fucking morons- that are bigoted and stupid.
Thank You for your intellectually stimulating, fact filled, persuasive dissertation.
“If the US adopts the Trump regime for 4 more years – I will bet dollars to donuts that the US falls as a super power.”
Before Trump even ran for president, Martin Armstrong said that the financial center of the world is moving to the East after 2032.
The day the U.S. became the world’s only super power, was the day the U.S. reached the top of the mountain. Down was the only direction from there. A simple mathematical fact.
As can easily be seen, the West, Europe included, is in decline, which was evident before Trump became president.
The Russia Russia Russia crowd is pushing China, with the world’s largest population, together with Russia, the world’s largest country.
Smart move. /sarc.
China is the up and coming empire and the U.S. corporations were working hard to build them up, long before Trump came into office. Trump is actually the first president to push back against that. At one time the U.S. used to be self sufficient, but now we don’t even manufacture our own pharmaceuticals. That becomes a serious issue in a pandemic. China and India control our drug supply. They can hoard for their own needs, first. China even turned back a ship with exported supplies that had already left port.
Speaking of the Michigan legislature, the bigoted and blinkered Democrats censured a Democrat legislator of color because she thanked Trump for his help after she contracted Covid-19.
Lindsey Graham and Ben Shapiro can lead the super power charge from here. I’d be good with Chester A. Arthur.
Antibiotic refers specifically to something that kills bacteria. Only bacteria. Not viruses or other germs.
To be fair, lysol drinkers need to be set against the background of incidents with bleach and disinfectants per year; that number is much higher than you would think, but this month they will all be “caused” by Trump.
They will not all be caused by Trump. If there is a signal above that normal amount of stupidity — that will be caused by Trump. So far only anecdotal statements from a few people that there are more calls about ‘safely’ ingesting disinfectant. And the news is moving on from that – probably because there isn’t much of a signal there.
Women say what is popular in public but they won’t be voting for a man that can’t keep himself from pawing little girls. Just like Hillary that defended Slick Willy all of those years. Bumbling Bush got a second term. Obama got a second term. Kerry, Romney, and Biden are all weak candidates.
As a woman, Trumps “pussy grabbing” comments and his treatment of women generally makes me sick, sorry but Biden (to most women) is the lesser of two evils.
I will write in Liberace.
“Suddenly Trump no longer looks invincible. Of, course, his invisibility was nothing but an illusion in the minds of rabid supporters all along.”
Trump has been attacked by a corrupt government and corrupt news media all along the way. A lesser man would not have made it this far.
I saw a blurb the other day that Trump wanted to get the troops out of Afghanistan by way of Covid as an excuse and that he got pushback from the generals. Trump got pushback every time he tried to get out of Syria.
The president is supposed to be in charge of foreign policy, not un-elected bureaucrats in the intelligence community. Trump was never a member of the government insiders club, which is why they opposed him so vehemently.
I will stick with the one who is upsetting their apple cart.
It will be interesting to see who Durham will be indicting and what truth is going to be exposed.
He’s not upsetting their apple cart. He’s a blustery guy who deserted his 2016 platform as soon as he got into office. He wants really low Fed rates, to be BFFs with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and to thumb his nose at Iran. Other than those things and throwing tariffs around, there isn’t much he actually cares about.
The establishment freaked out because he was an outsider, but as it turns out they didn’t need to worry. They’re even willing to run an obviously senile guy against him because it’s not so bad if he wins again.
The only chance the Democrats have is to pull a Bobby Kennedy on Creepy Joe and put in a last minute replacement.
Maybe the Republicans can do the same, Trump damns himself whenever he opens his mouth.
Trump tends to say whatever he is thinking. It is called honesty, a trait few liberals can tolerate. Liberalism is all about deception and the destruction of personal liberty in favor of hive tribalism. Liberals seek to enslave the world for its own good….
Mish it is April 30th 2020. On April 30th in 2016, Trump was losing every poll in a general election despite dealing up the nomination.. Lets say there are many things that could happen between now and November. Even if Biden is elected are the problems created prior to when Trump was elected Trump’s fault ? In an odd way the problems are the fault of career politicians like Biden. Trump isnt perfect but I think people see the point of relying on China and the world for their goods and services. So the choice is stark come November. Are we going back to past before 2016 ? Or does Trump deserve more time to change the system that career politicians created.
Polling is disastrous the issue is where are you going to go when the green new deal gets elected in ?
Hey Mish,
You have been hammering Trump at every opportunity, most of which has been debunked, but now we have some real news about how the FBI has conspired to convict or get Flinn fired based entirely on politics. I don’t suppose you will be touching that story, or the accusations about Biden that have far more credibility than the ones about Kavanaugh. The one thing you can always count on from Democrats is their complete lack of credibility….. Should be an interesting election.
That has applied to both red/blue teams for decades.
325million Americans and these are the best two candidates you guys can find, hopeless!
Com’on Mish. You could put anybody in the poles against Trump and get the same numbers.
If true, that’s actually the point of the article…isn’t it?
I’ll be amazed if the blue team lets Biden proceed to the debates. What are they going to do, have his wife accompany him to the podium? Fit him with an earpiece? He’ll be utterly lost up there without constant assistance.
Then again, the blue team would probably rather lose with “their” guy than win with someone with imperfect pedigree. The red team is the same way, they were far happier losing with McCain or Romney than winning with Trump. Purity is more important than victory since control is the name of the game and our overlords win with either team.
I think I’m going to watch the first debate just to see if it degenerates into the two of them literally throwing poop at each other.
I think McCain and Romney both could manage this country better and both could show more empathy during the Covid-19 pandemic. I think both McCain and Romney are fundamentally good people. I can’t say that for Trump.
Rand Paul pointed out that Trump helped pay for a medical mission to Haiti, to restore eyesight to some 200 Hatians.
John “BOMB BOMB BOMB BOMB IRAN” McCain was a good person? I don’t think his war mongering was appreciated by the mothers of dead children in the Middle East.
Romney and McCain good people? McCain was a total warmonger and Romney is a stereotypical bankster elite. You’d be hard pressed to pick two worse examples if you tried.
So lucky that voting doesn’t matter, the deep state always wins.
It’s onset of Dementia v Narcissistic Psychopath. Reagan did his 2nd term with Dementia and got by.
“than win with someone with imperfect pedigree.” = “than win with someone who might not follow orders”.
Every voter needs to flip the script. None of this VoteBlueNoMatterWho or straight ticket red. Instead people need to vote the opposite of who is currently in office. Vote for anyone but the incumbent. Flush the fuckers out and let them know their lobbyist sucking days are over.
That has never worked or will work.
The lobbyists have paid for both sides. Trump is a wildcard which is why neither party likes him anymore.
Mish your drinking too much of the TDS Kool-aid.
If you listen to the Trump clip about disinfectant, was the word Lysol used? No. Only disinfectant, maybe this is what he was referring to:
Or here:
A product being tested by Cedars Sinai Hospital in Los Angeles.
If a president told you 40 years a ago that we could insert a wire through your groin and repair issues in your heart, would you have concluded Jimmy Carter has lost his mind?
In 1962 when a president said we will put a man on the moon by the end of the decade, would you have concluded John Kennedy has lost his mind.
Seriously? That’s your defense of Trump’s comments? Maybe it will be feasible to ingest disinfectant forty years from now but for the moment it is not recommended.
Trump never said to ingest disinfectant.
Please read my comments and the attached articles
Trump said that was a sarcastic statement. Don’t you believe him?
The whole country has TDS. Half of them think an orange blowhard is responsible for everything wrong with our entire society, while the other half thinks an orange blowhard is going to rescue them from everything wrong with our entire society.
Trump never said to ingest disinfectant.
He did, however, suggest that we should be studying injecting disinfectant because it kills the virus quickly. That was the extent of the analysis before he made the comment.
The defense of this comment is stupid because the comment was stupid. Y’all should let this one go because it is not defensible. And coming up with excuses like “He didn’t say to drink it!” or “He never mentioned Lysol!” just makes the excuse-maker look stupid.
If you didn’t read the articles your position is the uninformed one
Your articles cover the use of radiation/light – I see nothing that addresses the statement that Trump actually made.
You stretched to try and make that statement encompass these light therapies, but that was not the context of the statements about injecting disinfectant. Trump actually addressed the specific idea of UV light as a treatment. Which directly supports that his previous statements about disinfectant were NOT about light therapy. Therefore, it is not odd to take the statements about injecting disinfectant at their face value — I’m not changing any meanings, not reading anything else (like brands or drinking it or etc.) into them. On their face, these statements were stupid. And they are being treated as they should be — as stupid statements.
Rafterman probably got hit by a 2×4 too often…Anyway…Dump the Trump.
I may have been hit by a 2×4 but at least I try to present facts vs opinion. My grandfather once told me ” Opinions are like assholes, everybody has one and most of them stink”
“When anything infected that undergoes a procedure to disinfect it the agent being used to bring about that effect can be termed a disinfectant, can it not?”
There’s a different word for that: antibiotic.
Trump was being sarcastic anyway. Said so himself. He’s already undermined your defense of him. Do keep up.
I think that Mish writes these stories just to provoke the Trumpanzees. Without fail, they run out of their cages throwing bananas and screeching that their master is invincible.
Some bloggers get paid by the clicks. I’d say Dennijer, like him or not, has the old get off my lawn banhammer, so not into clickbait.
Who on earth would want to inherit this mess? The collapse isn’t complete, until it is all anyone can do is try to delay the outcome. There can be no rebuild until there is a collapse.
Have posted it before, will repeat, Biden will regret winning.
Democrats will regret winning.
I guess some people still watch polls. Have we learning nothing over the last few years? I’m not big fan of trump, but creepy joe biden is not going to be the president. He will be lucky to avoid jail.
Trump is equally creepy, and a proven disaster rather than a probable disaster. Biden won’t get my vote, but he’s the lesser evil at this point. If we knew in 2016 what we know now, Hillary would have won.
It will be a Clown Show.
I will write in “Bozo” on my ballot.
Be careful. It might get counted as a Trump vote.
Ninja’d by ToInfinityandBeyond.
If you really want to cause confusion this time around, just write in “the smart, stable one”.
I will write Krusty the Clown is funnier than the Cheeto looking Clown.
You can draw an upwards pointing finger. Oh wait, that can be misinterpreted.
“If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can still lose Virginia”
What?
Lose Virginia?
What is the probability of Biden losing VA?
Are you trying to scare me?
NE Virginia, not Wall St, is ground-zero for Deep State. No chance Dems lose there.
TDS is a constant theme here…of course he’s a bumbling fool but let’s get real…the last four Presidents and their opponents were either cheap hustlers or empty-suits…take your pick. But all of them were perfect reflections of the Empire in decline they were elected to lead. Trump is just the latest symptom of the disease eating our nation alive.
Could not have said it better. For the past month, my questions have been, “Where are the checks? Where are the tests? Where are the masks?” Trump said recently that we would “soon” be testing 5 million a day. We haven’t tested more than 350,000 in a day yet. I’m voting Independent if there is a candidate. If not, I won’t vote. I can’t recommend either one of them.
All true, but none of them were complete morons with out of control narcissism. Trump is something new.
When Obama proclaimed “American exceptionalism” to the world, that was the most narcissistic presidential act, ever.
It is a binary choice but we are screwed either way. This is why McConnell said stacking the courts is more important to changing the country. If things to back to embracing illegal immigration and other such policies Democrats have traditionally embraced the country will look like a banana republic soon. Count me as one that may retire elsewhere.