Late Counting
I created my “Late Counting” map based on the New York Times article How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States
Even though California allows counting until November 20, let’s be honest. We know who won California already.
The same applies to Illinois, New York, and Utah. The latter will go to Trump.
Maximum Uncertainty
For the benefit of Trump, let’s assume some states are tossups that really aren’t.
Let’s also factor in states where late counting could matter.
Maximum Uncertainty Map
Biden is a 222 and Trump is at 125.
Likely to Quickly Know
- AZ: 11
- TX: 38
- WI: 10
- GA: 16
- FL: 29
- ME: 1
- NE: 1
- Total of Above: 106
Biden needs 270-222 = 48 of 106.
But we cannot stop there.
- NC expects 98% counting. Given the preponderance of mail-in voting will be Democratic, if Biden is ahead with 98% counting we will know Biden won that state.
- Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota are similar. If Biden is ahead with just mail-in votes to count, we will know who won.
What Does “Know” Mean?
The results will not be official until states officially post results and that will be after all the counting.
But let’s be honest, we will realistically know who won if Biden is ahead with only mail-in votes to count in such setups.
In addition, we will reach a mathematical certainty far before the official period based on outstanding ballots.
Trump’s hope of the Supreme Court deciding the election hinges on Trump winning nearly all of the “Maximum Uncertainty” states plus Pennsylvania (outright or on a Supreme Court decision).
There will be delays in official counts, but count on knowing who won much sooner.
Mish
Finally ready for my election prediction: Biden 309 – Trump 229
Of the swing states, I think Biden will take MN, NV, NE2, MI, WI, PA, ME2, and yes FL.
I think Trump will take TX, OH, IA, GA, NC, and AZ.
I think I could potentially be wrong on FL, ME2, AZ, NC, GA, or IA, putting Biden in a likely range of 279 to 357.
Covid / BLM is working against the Democrats. The combination of Covid, and BLM terrorism is having the effect of focusing much more attention on the issues facing this country, and that is a bad thing for the Democrats.
Democratic strategy depends in large part on an uninformed populous, who are too distracted by consumerism, sports, and entertainment to understand the issues or the agenda behind them. Their lies and sound bites cannot stand up to scrutiny and logic, and the more people who focus on the issues, the more votes they lose.
Their final desperate hope is to use the propaganda tactic known as bandwagon. Fabricating polls that claim Democrats are ahead in the hope of influencing undecideds to join the bandwagon. The problem is, people now understand that most of what the Democrats, and the media who supports them say, is lies.
The Democratic party and the MSM no longer have any credibility. They have been exposed as liars and traitors to America time and time again until even those who would normally be too distracted to notice now understand.
There is nothing like suffering and adversity to wake people up and get their cognitive juices going, and once they do, the entire Democratic agenda is exposed for what it is.
Good stuff and with polls closing in the east at 7:00 we may even know before the other polls close 102 votes will be taken. Trump better have most of those if he expects to win!
Trump is a putz, and so is Biden, but a Trump win would at least provide 4 more years of continually entertaining Mish whining!
Wow Mish … this looks like a lot of work , analysis. Well done.
it will be interesting to see how close your work is to the results.
Here we go !
I’ve said this here before. Don’t assume Biden wins AZ. I’m seeing lots of Mexican American Trump supporters. Many who I know personally that loathed him 4 years ago. I was shocked to learn on Saturday that my wife’s tia said she’s supporting Trump along with her husband who is Native American. They absolutely couldn’t stand him a few years back. Strange times indeed.
Sure thing…. Remember the latino women are the hidden power….By the way, they might be acting and telling you what the hostiles want to hear…just in case that Douchebag wins..But on November 4th, the majority of the Latino community will vote for the less hated one… and on November 5h, you will hear a lot of Mariachi parties celebrating the downfall of White House Clown.
Lol. Mariachi parties? U watch too many movies. Latinas don’t vote much.
If Fla, NC & AZ go to Trump or are close, we probably won’t know for a few days minimum.
…and PA
We’ve known who lost about a generation or two ago.
I say by midnight eastern time we will know.
I say this because Florida has different rules from some other states that allow them to open and tabulate votes as they come in and Florida already has over 50% of all eleigible voters having voted as of tonight. They can’t disclose those tabulations till polls close on election day, but come Tuesday Florida will be called fairly early, for a change. If it is called for Biden as the winner the election is over, there is no path to 270 electoral votes for Trump without Florida’s 29 electoral votes.
Even if Trump does manage to get Florida he has a very narrow path to 270.
He will not flip any state that went for Cinton in ’16, we all know this, every state Clinton won in 2016 is now going to Biden by a lot. As I pointed out this morning with huge margins. That means he has to get 270 EC votes out of the states he got 304 last time. He cannot improve on that 304 and he can only afford to lose 34.
He will lose one or more in Maine. Fact. He will lose 1 in Nebraska, fact, brings Biden to 32 he has to get. And every pollster out there except biased Rasmussen says PA, WI, and MI will go Biden by numbers far outside their margins of error.
The total of WI, MI, and PA is 46. Polls say Trump will get none of those. Biden wins. But Biden can take PA and trump loses. Or, Biden can take WI and MI and Trump loses.
The incredible thing we should talk about is Biden winning in states like Arizona. He is solidly ahead and will likely win there. Trump cannot lose states he won in 16. Biden is ahead in the big three outside the margin of polling error. He will get WI, MI, and PA. Now add in AZ, and the wall Trump has to climbis impossible. He would have to flip states like WA or OR. Where he trails by 30+ points. He cannot make up for those three states, and there are more than half a dozen states he took in 16 that are polling either equal or in favor of Biden at this point. GA, TX, NC, IA, AZ, FL, so it could be close from a pure math analysis but it can now also be a wipeout for the GOP. It is almost certain that dems control the senate after the election. So I think it does not matter if Trump cheats his way into another term. The congress will be in dem hands and Trump even if he remains in power for a while will be a lame duck.
“He will not flip any state that went for Cinton in ’16”
Probably true, but Nevada is a reasonable possibility, NH and MN are remote possibilities.
I wouldn’t risk big money either direction if the bet were, “can Trump flip any 2016 blue state to red in 2020.”
Well, Trump did get one elector in Maine last time I think didn’t he? (just checked and ME went 3 for dems and 1 for Trump) They apportion electors by congressional distric the way Nebraska does, there just is no way he is going to take ME’s other urban electors, Biden’s lead is too solid, on the other hand he could lose the one elector he got in 16. Biden also now has a solid lead in NH, most recent poll is Biden 53.6% to Trump at 42.2%, so more than 11.4% lead. Even if you add up all undecided there, third party voters, and margin of error in polling Trump still cannot take the state, Biden is well over 50%. And even if the good people of NH were to have a sudden bout of insanity on November 3, or putin switched every vote the state still has only 4 electoral votes. It would not do Trump any good should he lose the rust belt or FL or NC or even AZ.
By the way, I lived in NV in 2017-18 and I can tell you Trump is not going to win there. Here is the most recent (September) voter registration data from NV, there are now a little more than 115,000 more democrats registered than republicans out of just under 2 million voters. Of all the states the urban/rural divide is sharpest there with about 96% of the population living in greater Las Vegas or in the Reno area. The rest of the state is about as empty as Alaska. https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9010
In case that link is not working it is here: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/2020-statistics
I can tell you that while there has been some opening in NV re Covid they are still off by more than half and the state is reeling. “Nevada’s insured unemployment rate, which measures how many people who are eligible for regular benefits are seeking them out, dropped 0.7 percentage points last week to 14.9 percent.“
These people are facing total loss if Trump gets another term, many have already run out of benefits and pretty much all the rest will by inauguration day. Who would YOU vote for in such a case? I know they are not happy with the administration and worry that LV will never fully recover, and may go back to ghost town status.
I lived in NV 2005-2016.
It’s practically all blue now. But not by a landslide, and so far the early vote in NV isn’t what the Dems were hoping it would be. That’s why I leave the door open to an upset there. Wouldn’t bet even money on it, of course.
MN = Minnesota, not Maine. Emphasis on the “remote” when I say remote possibility.
I know Trump thinks he has a chance in MN he is there today I bleieve, but it is going to take way more than a superspreader rally to flip a state that Biden leads in by double digits.
By the way, I have hated the two letter state abbreviations since they were introduced in the 60’s. There just rae too many states that start with the same letters like A, M, N, and O, and with common letters in their name. And there is no governing rule about how they work, for instance in OHio it is the first two letters as well as CAlifornoa, ORegon, but MainE is first and last, NeVada is just two random letters, as is MiNnesota, and TeNnessee, and who ever came up with AK for AlasKa was just an idiot. We have 2 states that start with AL, 2 with A’s and K’s in their name, 2 that start with CO, 2 that start with MI, 3 that start with MA, Missouri is abbreviated MO but the only state that stars with MO is MOntana. SIX states start with NE. I remember in first grade when they started all this they did it specifically to fuck with my head. We just had the abbreviations memorized as they used to be then they changed them all.
” … based on the New York Times article” – sorry Mish, that phrase says it all. There hasn’t been a sentence, let alone article, in that publication in the last how may years whose sole purpose wasn’t to promote the so called progressivism and discredit or disinform anyone who thinks otherwise. The independent fact finding journalism has died and been buried there long time ago.
So you’re going with nonsense. Good.
By November 5th, every Republican politician will be rewriting history by claiming a long-standing disassociation with Trump.
Yep. And, it’ll be Tea-Party II time as a consequence.
Same sort of thing with the Bernie Bros if Trump wins.
Think you should add NV to your list of toss-ups if MN is a toss-up. Biden is polling better and the betting odds are higher in MN compared to NV.
Reassuring..thanks for this.