US treasuries rallied a bit again today, with the 10-Year yield down 12 basis points in two days to 2.80% in the wake of a huge plunge in durable goods orders as reported by the commerce department.
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased $17.8 billion or 7.3 percent to $226.6 billion
Transportation equipment, down following three consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $16.7 billion or 19.4 percent to $69.7 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $14.5 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in July, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.8
billion or 0.3 percent to $228.8 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent June decrease.Computers and electronic products, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $0.9 billion or 3.2 percent to $26.6 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent June increase.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in July, up three of the last four months, increased $1.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $379.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis, and followed a 0.2 percent June increase.
Transportation equipment, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, led the increase, $0.7 billion or 0.6 percent to $117.1 billion.
Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in July decreased $14.2 billion or 15.4 percent to $78.0 billion. Shipments decreased $1.0 billion or 1.4 percent to $73.6 billion. Unfilled orders increased $4.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $610.2 billion. Inventories increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $171.3 billion.
New Durable Goods Orders
New Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation
New Durable Goods Orders – Nondefense Capital Goods
Plunge to Accelerate?
Is this the plunge that accelerates or is another bounce coming?
Given the “unexpected” plunge in new housing and the rise in mortgage rates, I suggest an acceleration to the downside.
For further discussion, please see New Home Sales Plunge 13.4% in July, June Revised Lower; Blame Rising Mortgage Rates; Starts 896,000 – Sales 394,000 – Hmmm.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
