The Federal Reserve bank of New York Has Dynamic Maps of Nonprime Mortgage Conditions for the United States. The maps offer a switch between Alt-A and Subprime. Here is one such map showing the percentage of Alt-A loans in California that were low-doc or no-doc.
To see a dynamic map click on the above link.
Low Doc or No Doc Percentages
State Subprime Alt-A
CA 47.4% 83.2%
FL 41.6% 79.4%
IL 34.8% 73.5%
NY 44.3% 80.8%
AZ 36.7% 70.1%
NJ 44.0% 78.6%
MA 39.6% 74.9%
The lowest state I could find for Alt-A percentage was Kansas at 44%. Liar loans are rampant in Alt-A, which is of course why most of them are Alt-A loans and not prime loans in the first place.
Share 90 Day Delinquent
State Subprime Alt-A
CA 8.7% 3.0%
NV 8.4% 3.1%
FL 8.1% 3.6%
MS 14.4% 3.1%
IL 8.0% 2.3%
NY 6.6% 1.9%
GA 11.9% 2.9%
TN 13.0% 2.2%
AL 12.1% 2.1%
MO 10.5% 2.0%
MI 10.6% 3.0%
OH 9.2% 2.6%
LA 9.2% 2.2%
AZ 6.4% 2.1%
NJ 9.0% 2.4%
MA 9.5% 2.6%
I would be interested in seeing stats on the percentage of Pay Option ARMs for Alt-A buyers. Stats were not provided on Pay option ARMs on the dynamic map.
Pay option ARMs have artificially kept payment rates low for those in them. The problem comes down the road when negative amortization forces an enormous payment increase on the loan. The tables suggest the crisis in Alt-A is still on deck. It is coming. Evidence can be found in certain Alt-A pools for Florida and California already.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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