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A Huge Millennial Home Ownership Gap in Pictures

Apartment List’s Millennial Homeownership Report highlights the plight of millennials struggling to buy a home. 

According to the latest data from the Census Bureau, millennials have finally reached a significant milestone: more than half own their homes. For a generation whose identity has been shaped by a tumultuous relationship with the housing market, homeownership has been a lofty goal, growing exceedingly expensive and competitive compared to when their parents were coming of age. But today the median millennial is a homeowner, with the latest millennial homeownership rate standing at 51.5 percent.

While millennials crossed the 50-percent threshold in 2022, generation X is on the cusp of reaching 70 percent. 77 percent of the silent generation owns their homes, but their homeownership rate is slowly declining as they age into their 80s and 90s and some members move in with younger relatives or into assisted living facilities. Baby boomers, born into the suburbs that emerged rapidly after World War II, maintain the nation’s highest homeownership rate today at 78 percent.

Millennial Homeownership Trails Previous Generations

Plans to Buy and Rent

ApartmentList notes that 74% will rent because they cannot afford a home.

Of those who want to buy, two-thirds have no dedicated down payment savings, and only 15 percent have saved over $10,000.

Priced Out Two Ways 

Prices are finally dropping in every major market. However, those declines are small compared to the recent runup. 

For discussion, please see Home Prices Are Falling Everywhere, But Not as Fast as They Rose

Not only are prices absurdly high, interest rates are well above 6.0 percent.

Mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily

Killer Combination Trap

The combination of rising home prices and rising interest rates makes buying a home today one of the least affordable times in history. 

Inventory is low and will stay low because few want to trade in a sub-3 percent mortgage for a 6.5 percent mortgage. Many who own their own home are effectively trapped in that home. 

Buying a home means buying furniture, new carpet, new cabinets, landscaping, appliances etc. Housing will slow the economy for years to come.

Dilemma of Fed’s Making 

The Fed and Congress share responsibility for this set of circumstances. Congress sent out three rounds of fiscal stimulus to fight the Covid pandemic. 

The third and biggest round of stimulus was under Biden, and it was totally unwarranted as the economy was already recovering.

The biggest portion of the blame goes to the Fed for recklessly continuing QE despite massive signs of raging inflation.

Amazingly, the Fed wanted to make up for lack of past inflation. Not so amazingly, the Fed has never apologized or even admitted its errors.

Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment

Looking ahead, the Fed is still signaling higher interest rates while admitting it is hiking smack into a recession. 

Please note Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment

Also note 70 Percent of Americans are Financially Stressed, 58 Percent Live Paycheck to Paycheck

Meanwhile, President Biden is doing everything humanely possible with regulations, energy mandates, and support for unions to create more inflation.

The dilemma for the Fed, and it’s a huge one, is that credit conditions are very deflationary, but the economic policies of this administration coupled with trade wars everywhere are very inflationary.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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45 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
culteres change. usa is a few decades behind EU in giving up religion. many eu nations don’t have such high home ownership rates but live decent lives none the less.
LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
3 years ago
Interest rates don’t matter. My first home purchase in the early 90s had a rate of 7 3/8% and I was well qualified. The problem is the actual price of the properties. As with many other things, boomers screwed the pooch for everyone after by pushing home ownership as an “investment” which then led to flipping, mc mansioning and other speculation. Housing stopped being ‘something you lived in’, perhaps for generations.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Doug78. Between the 50’s and the 70’s rental units were large and spacious. Today they are small. After WWII new houses sf were small. They peaked in 2007. We are 20 years beyond peak. The trend is down. The gas guzzler houses are out of fashion, especially if an Irish civil war
start in June. The suburbs have a target on their back. QQQ : snow in June, fun fun fun.
vboring
vboring
3 years ago

The increase in remote work should ease housing constraints.Older generations had to drive until they qualified for a mortgage. Accept a long commute in exchange for an affordable home. Now we fly to a different city or region to buy the place we want.

Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Each successive generation is taking longer to get established – more post secondary schooling, getting married later, enjoying life, having children later – which is when people typocally buy a house. Each generation can afford to do this as they live longer lives.
Starting “adult life” later is one reason (although not the only reason) why boomers are purchasing houses later than silent, gen x later than boomers, and millennials later than gen x.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
The silent and the boomers retire and expire. What will millennial do with a 2K/4K sf house they inherited that need $100K/$150K repairs
and $15K/$25K taxes. If enough mini/micro units will be built they will render the gas guzzler houses useless, like Toyota
and Honda in the 70’s/80’s.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
Sell them as a fixer-upper or live in them themselves. It’s an asset with no mortgage tied to it (generally) which makes it much more affordable to pay the maintenance and taxes. Just ask anyone who has paid off their mortgage. Anyway why are you against big houses? Are you an adept of the miniature house movement? Myself I would not like to live in a house the size of a NYC studio.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Doug78, If enough millennial and Gen X sell inherited houses as a fixer upper == > the market will not be divided between those who will never sell and those who cannot afford to buy a house. There are many reasons to sell an inherited house : good money on bad, different locations, emotional reasons, they don’t need another house, they don’t want to deal with contractors, they don’t want to rent, short the gas guzzler houses. The inelastic RE market might be more elastic especially if we enter recession.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
It does mean a supply of reasonably prices houses coming on the market. This is nothing new. Our parents often started out with an older house before moving up. I did it. My parents did it and probably their parents before. It is nothing exceptional or scandalous.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I know mortgage free well. Mortgage free means old. Old need repairs. If they were not done : fix them, or sell.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
Repairing an inherited house is much cheaper than buying a new house no matter how you turn it. Most Boomers maintain their property reasonably well. The wildcard is if they need money for medical bills. There is a case for sudden death in the aged. It’s a better way to go and less costly in my opinion.
Eric89011
Eric89011
3 years ago
It would cost $1200 more per month to buy the place I’m renting. No thanks.
TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
3 years ago
Yeah, just imagine how a 50% Discount at retail sale and a 50% debt jubilee at loan signing might remedy that. Okay, go back to sleep.
Avery
Avery
3 years ago
Keep your friends close, but keep you grandparents closer.
dtj
dtj
3 years ago
“The Fed wanted to make up for lack of past inflation”. Only the gullible take the Fed at it’s word.
I’m oversimplifying, but if you have the power to create money out of thin air, who cares if you devalue it. You can just create more.
TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
3 years ago
Reply to  dtj
A 50% discount/rebate policy at retail sale reverses devaluation and makes every dollar you have twice as valuable. Please look at the policy and do the simple math.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
But a 120% discount will give you the stuff for free and a bit extra in your pocket for incidentals.
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
Powell: “We trust financial intermediaries to hold and transfer funds in a safe and secure manner to meet
the needs of commerce. The payments system provides financial institutions and their
customers a variety of ways to transfer funds, but the goal is essentially the same in all cases: to
move money from one individual or business to another in a reliable, secure, low-cost, and
convenient manner.”
Jerome Powell is ignorant. Banks are never intermediaries in the savings->investment process. The Golden Age in Capitalism was where the nonbanks grew faster than the banks, thereby activating monetary savings. I.e., the housing market was backstopped by the Savings and Loan Associations, Mutual Savings Banks, and Credit Unions. And those nonbank institutions had deposit insurance.
Putting savings back to work was done in a noninflationary manner in the 40s to 1965. Then the FED and Congress destroyed the thrifts by enacting the DIDMCA of March 31st, 1980, and deregulating Reg Q ceilings. The thrifts had to act like banks in order to survive. Whereas the increase in homeownership rates between 1994 and 2004 was because the banks monetized, packaged MBS, and e.g., sold them to the GSEs. I.e., M1 grew to approach M3. Thus began the inflationary cycle for the housing market. And the payment of interest on interbank demand deposits, the suppression of interest rates, accelerated this process.
I.e.,
Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
This was all by design. The Savings and Loan Crisis left a lot of bag holders.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
3 years ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
“banks monetized, packaged MBS, and e.g., sold them to the GSEs”
…
GSEs bought mortgages and did the securitization.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
The real “Golden Age in Capitalism” was in Renaissance Italy when the bankers knew what fractional reserve banking was – and everyone else did not.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Did anyone see the 60 Minutes: AI Revolution segment?
HOLY CRAP! I’m firmly now, like seriously, in the camp that says that 2029 is spot on by when “the anomaly” is going to happen.
Some rogue AI is going to take out our national grid and send us into chaos, anarchy & back to the stone ages.
Musk is right. That stuff needs to be shut down until we get our hands around it.
A Dose of Reality 5
A Dose of Reality 5
3 years ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
May I suggest the book Life 3.0,? On Elons book list. It’s a fast read and provides some framework for thought.
Elon hold the worlds largest training data set for chat bot machine learning.
Do I want to sound like Mish or anyone else out there that tweets a lot? I use the Future Twitter LLM.
Of course there are ways to poison a ML data set. I would refer you to Bruce Schneier’s security blog for some interesting discussion on that.
Imagine the kinds of crazy tweets people will tweet to avoid being imitated or impersonated.
Make your opinion heard at the Future of Life Institute before it is too late.
abombthecoder
abombthecoder
3 years ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
it could just as easily be a moral agent. you can’t stop it. if america stops working on it, china will. also are you going to arrest hundreds of thousands of CS students writing neural networks? that will really hurt us. going after programmers is no different than the soviet union going after farmers.
AI is inevitable. invest in it now.
Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
Elon has ulterior motives – he now realizes his X companies are behind the 8-ball and quickly being left behind in the AI race and is requesting time to catch up. He just announced his AI-X initiative.
Elon is a poor man’s version of Gates and Jobs, a third rate tech baron.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
Reply to  Jack
he is a con man on the government dole
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
More successful than Gates or Jobs.
Musk gets a lot of his money directly from the manufacturer, no middleman markups.
LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
3 years ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
I saw those movies in the 80s and 90s already, thanks.
Dubronik
Dubronik
3 years ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
You probably drank too much coffee this morning. We are our worst enemies.
Mac Timred
Mac Timred
3 years ago
Notice Gen X homeownership rate flatlined 2005 – 2010. There was no reason to buy a home given the GFC – house prices might crash again etc.
Millenials grew their HO rate during that period however, slowly but they grew it and closed some of the gap with Gen X.
Now Millenial HO rate is increasing rapidly..
I am optimistic that Millenials will catch up.
Dubronik
Dubronik
3 years ago
Reply to  Mac Timred
Nope…. Play Millennial Monopoly and you will see…. They all spend their energy trying to be the next “tik tok” star… They are the generation who likes to earn money for nothing….
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Dubronik
But do they get their chicks for free like we did?
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
There is one more fundamental piece of data to add to relatively low Millennial home ownership: job stability. The silent generation could work for a single employer for life. Boomers were able to build wealth until major corporate downsizings hit in the early 90’s. Gen X was really the first to enter the labor market with no implied guarantee of anything, but the dream of home ownership was still viewed as achievable. Millennials are the first generation to have the dream of home ownership shattered by watching job losses from the Dot Com bubble and a housing bubble that popped. So renting allows Millennials to move where jobs are available. It’s a survival strategy.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
That’s all fine & dandy, but the results of the survey don’t lie.
74% of M’er’s can’t even afford to think about buying a home, so they’re stuck with the reality of what you’re suggesting is a major driver of their decisions: mobility.
The reality is that of that remaining 26% of who could afford to buy, some portion of that don’t due to a combination of those last two metrics: post purchase costs & viewing home ownership financially risky.
Put together, that means as little as 10% of M’ers may actually be willing & ready to buy homes at this time. And, I don’t blame them. I don’t care what generation you are; buying a home right now is patently idiotic.
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Prime Age home ownership is rising due to millennial. Their biggest buying thrust was between 2015 and 2020 when mortgage rates were low. The boomer and the silent do nothing. Gen X home ownership is rising at a lower rate. Their biggest thrust was also 2015 and 2020, but not as fast as millennial. The gap between millennial and Gen X is narrowing. More than half of Millennial already own a house. Millennial aren’t getting divorces as quickly as their mums and pops. They buy and stay in the house. Most got their houses at 2.5%-4.5% mortgages. in 2022/2023 mortgages doubled.
Within few years the boomer and the silent might breach millennial. Retirees expire. Home ownership might become hardship, because inflation and RE taxes are chewing up their income. Millennial real income is rising.
Jack
Jack
3 years ago
Reply to  8dots
I am more concerned on Gen Z than millennials. Gen Z are starting adult hood with expensive houses, high innterest rates, and eventual higher taxes due to all money printing debt by the government.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Jack
They will inherit just like prior generations did.
Would be nice to know the percentage of bought vs inherited homes.
HippyDippy
HippyDippy
3 years ago
Just think of all those “homeowners” who will wind up losing their homes as the lending institutions lent their money out to anyone with a pulse. Think 2008.
I also wonder if the FED will overshoot its “goal” of a recession. Can you imagine all the sweet deals available to those who profit from these “blunders” if it were to become a depression?
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
When the Boomers die off the Millennials are going to be inheriting real estate of much more value than their parents had inherited. That will be a big cash infusion.
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I’ve always thought of this as being the real X-FACTOR that gives the M’ers a chance to catch up.
The concern, of course, is does something create a black swan event that causes real estate to drop in value over a fairly lengthy period of time?
And, it’s not just real estate. If the boomers remain fairly healthy, there’s going to be a lot of stocks & bonds that make their way downstream as well.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
That’s probably why Gen X ownership rates are so high now because their boomer and silent parents are dying off and leaving them homes.
The problem with the graphs are that they don’t show how you got to own your home (bought vs inherit). Eventually Millennials will have high ownership rates due to inheriting homes.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
When they inherit they have a choice of moving in or selling it and buying a Lamborghini. Tough decision.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
How many will have to sell because they don’t have a job capable of paying the real estate taxes on the inherited McMansion?
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
Probably a lot but by selling they get money that they can use eliminate their present debts with enough for a down payment on a house. Inheriting a big asset that you can sell is always good for you.
MikeC711
MikeC711
3 years ago
As for Joe Biden and the unions … he learned from the best (Obama). Those of us with Ford Pinto retirements get to pay off the Mercedes retirements that the unions promised. Those unions purchasing politicians was a great investment for the union and the politician. Only big loser is the taxpayer.

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