This is China’s advance salvo at Trump tariffs. It comes one day after the Biden administration expanded curbs on the sale of advanced American technology to China.
This is a much more detailed report than you will find elsewhere.
Ministry of China Issues Statement on Dual-Use Commodities, translated below from original in Simplified Chinese.
Announcement No. 46 of the Ministry of Commerce in 2024 on Strengthening Export Control of Dual-Use Items to the United States.
In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People’s Republic of China and other laws and regulations, in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it is decided to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to the United States. The relevant matters are hereby announced as follows:
- Dual-use items are prohibited from being exported to military users or for military purposes in the United States.
- In principle, the export of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States will not be permitted; for the export of dual-use items of graphite to the United States, a stricter end-user and end-use review will be implemented.
Any organization or individual in any country or region that violates the above provisions and transfers or provides relevant dual-use items originating in the People’s Republic of China to organizations and individuals in the United States will be held accountable according to law.
This announcement will be officially implemented from the date of publication.
Ministry of Commerce
December 3, 2024
What Are Superhard Materials?
Wikipedia: A superhard material is a material with a hardness value exceeding 40 gigapascals (GPa) when measured by the Vickers hardness test.They are virtually incompressible solids with high electron density and high bond covalency. As a result of their unique properties, these materials are of great interest in many industrial areas including, but not limited to, abrasives, polishing and cutting tools, disc brakes, and wear-resistant and protective coatings.
Diamond is the hardest known material to date, with a Vickers hardness in the range of 70–150 GPa. Diamond demonstrates both high thermal conductivity and electrically insulating properties, and much attention has been put into finding practical applications of this material. However, diamond has several limitations for mass industrial application, including its high cost and oxidation at temperatures above 800 °C. In addition, diamond dissolves in iron and forms iron carbides at high temperatures and therefore is inefficient in cutting ferrous materials including steel. Therefore, recent research of superhard materials has been focusing on compounds which would be thermally and chemically more stable than pure diamond.
The search for new superhard materials has generally taken two paths.[8] In the first approach, researchers emulate the short, directional covalent carbon bonds of diamond by combining light elements like boron, carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen. This approach became popular in the late 1980s with the exploration of C3N4 and B-C-N ternary compounds. The second approach towards designing superhard materials incorporates these lighter elements (B, C, N, and O), but also introduces transition metals with high valence electron densities to provide high incompressibility. In this way, metals with high bulk moduli but low hardness are coordinated with small covalent-forming atoms to produce superhard materials. Tungsten carbide is an industrially-relevant manifestation of this approach, although it is not considered superhard. Alternatively, borides combined with transition metals have become a rich area of superhard research and have led to discoveries such as ReB2, OsB2, and WB4.
Superhard materials can be generally classified into two categories: intrinsic compounds and extrinsic compounds. The intrinsic group includes diamond, cubic boron nitride (c-BN), carbon nitrides, and ternary compounds such as B-N-C, which possess an innate hardness. Conversely, extrinsic materials are those that have superhardness and other mechanical properties that are determined by their microstructure rather than composition. An example of extrinsic superhard material is nanocrystalline diamond known as aggregated diamond nanorods.
Historically, it was thought that synthetic diamond should be structurally perfect to be useful. This is because diamond was mainly preferred for its aesthetic qualities, and small flaws in structure and composition were visible by naked eye. Although this is true, the properties associated with these small changes has led to interesting new potential applications of synthetic diamond. For example, nitrogen doping can enhance mechanical strength of diamond, and heavy doping with boron (several atomic percent) makes it a superconductor.
I would take the announcement to include gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten carbide, and diamond nanorods with an additional warning on graphite.
Where are Superhard Materials Made?
Please consider Super Hard Material Market 2024 Growth Analysis by Future Developments, Major Players and Forecast to 2032
The “Super Hard Material Market” Research Report [paywalled] serves as a comprehensive guide, providing crucial insights into industry Top players.
According to the report, Asia-Pacific accounts the biggest market share of the global total Super Hard Materials market, both for production and consumption. The production of Super Hard Materials in China took over 85% of total global output.
China Bans Rare Mineral Exports to the U.S.
The New York Times reports China Bans Rare Mineral Exports to the U.S.
China said on Tuesday that it would begin banning the export of several rare minerals to the United States, an escalation of the tech war between the world’s two biggest powers. The move comes a day after the Biden administration tightened Chinese access to advanced American technology.
The ban signals Beijing’s willingness to engage in supply chain warfare by blocking the export of important components used to make valuable products, like weaponry and semiconductors.
Sales of gallium, germanium, antimony and so-called superhard materials to the United States would be halted immediately on the grounds that they have dual military and civilian uses, China’s Ministry of Commerce said. The export of graphite would also be subject to stricter review.
China created a legal framework last year for controlling exports of gallium and germanium, which are used in semiconductors, and on Sept. 15 China added antimony, which is used in military explosives. In October, China began requiring its exporters of rare earth metals, used in everything from advanced semiconductors to smart bombs, to disclose, step by step, how the minerals would be used in Western supply chains.
China’s exports of gallium and germanium briefly halted a year ago until officials in Beijing devised a system for approving such transactions. Shipments to the United States have never fully recovered, forcing the United States to rely more on the purchase of semi-processed materials from other countries like Japan that buy directly from China.
The move by China on Tuesday echoed an unannounced embargo on exports of rare earth metals to Japan that Beijing imposed for two months in 2010 during a territorial dispute between the countries. That embargo produced considerable distress among manufacturers in Japan worried about dwindling supplies, because China provides as much as 99 percent of the world’s supply of some rare earth metals.
Even before China instituted the ban Tuesday, it had begun limiting its overall antimony exports tightly enough that global prices for the material have doubled in the past three months.
According to the United States Geological Survey, China has been supplying 54 percent of the germanium used by the United States, a material used in infrared technology and fiber optics.
The United States has not mined its own gallium, used in semiconductors, since 1987. Japan supplies 26 percent of American imports of gallium, China 21 percent and Germany 19 percent, along with several smaller suppliers.
In response to U.S. technology curbs, Chinese industry groups representing business sectors, including semiconductors and auto manufacturing, also released statements on Tuesday calling for Chinese companies to purchase more chips domestically or from countries other than the United States.
“American chip products are no longer safe and reliable, and related Chinese industries will have to be cautious in purchasing American chips,” the China Semiconductor Industry Association said.
These associations include some of the world’s largest consumers of semiconductors, so the warning could have financial implications for U.S. chip makers.
Critical Materials Risk Assessment
Our own Department of Energy has placed some of the rare earth minerals we need for weapons systems, windmills, batteries, and aircraft on a critical materials list.
Nearly all of them are mined or refined in China.
Please consider a Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy
The US Department of Energy has placed some of the rare earth minerals we need for weapons systems, windmills, batteries, and aircraft on a critical materials list.
According to the analysis, there are six critical materials in the short term, which include cobalt, dysprosium, gallium, natural graphite, iridium, and neodymium. The uses for these critical materials are spread across rare earth magnets, batteries, LEDs, and hydrogen electrolyzers.
There are nine near-critical materials, which include electrical steel, fluorine, lithium, magnesium, nickel, platinum, praseodymium, silicon carbide (SiC), and uranium.
Finally, there are seven noncritical materials including aluminum, copper, manganese, phosphorous, silicon, tellurium, and titanium.
There are 12 critical, six near-critical, and four noncritical materials in the medium term.
Biden Eases Sanctions on Venezuela, Blocks Rare Earth Mining in Alaska
As an example of how stupid US policy is, please note Biden Eases Sanctions on Venezuela, Blocks Rare Earth Mining in Alaska
The Inflation Reduction Act was supposed to increase permitting in the US. As the election nears, Biden is blocking oil drilling and mining in the Alaska.
It takes years to get a mine up in production. And that is just the mining. Processing the minerals is the second stage.
China’s Ban on Rare Earths Processing Technology
On January 8, CSIS commented What China’s Ban on Rare Earths Processing Technology Exports Means
China announced a ban of rare earth extraction and separation technologies on December 21, 2023. This has significant implications for U.S. national, economic, and rare earth security. Rare earth elements—a group of 17 metals—are used in defense technologies, including missiles, lasers, vehicle-mounted systems such as tanks, and military communications. They are also used in computers, televisions, and smartphones, along with various clean energy technologies central to decarbonization.
At present China produces 60 percent of the world’s rare earths but processes nearly 90 percent, which means that it is importing rare earths from other countries and processing them. This has given China a near monopoly. Benchmark Minerals Intelligence has flagged that the United States is particularly exposed to processing restrictions for heavy rare earths, given China separates 99.9 percent of them.
Note the above article says China bans a technology export. The setup now is blocking export of the minerals themselves.
The U.S. Army is Now Desperate for Antimony
Yahoo!Finance reports America’s Shortage of Antimony Keeps Trump Awake At Night
Antimony (Sb), a critical metalloid, is a key element of the American war machine, essential for communication equipment, night vision goggles, explosives, ammunition, nuclear weapons, submarines, warships, optics, laser sighting and more, according to U.S. Army Major General (retired) James Marks.
The U.S. Army is Now Desperate for Antimony
China produces an astonishing ~70% of the world’s rare earth minerals and controls nearly 50% of the global antimony supply.
Trade War Showdown
I have been warning about this for years
China controls more than 80% of the world’s supply of tungsten and about 90% of global magnesium production
China has an effective monopoly over processing major heavy rare earths – Dysprosium (Dy) and Terbium (Tb), and Light Rare Earths – Neodymium (Nd) and Praseodymium (Pr).
If Trump increases tariffs on China by 60 percent, China could easily shut down rare earth exports.
It takes decades to get a mine up in the US and mining is one thing. Processing is the second. China controls about 90% of global rare earth process. No other county has the technology.
Computer Chip Sanctions Fail
On September 4, 2023, I noted US Sanctions Fail Again, China Now Produces Its Own Advanced Computer Chips
Trump and Biden both tried to cut off China’s supply of advanced microchips. The US wanted to knock Huawei out of the 5G market. Now, instead of China using US chips, it is producing its own chips.
China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials
On September 7 2023, in response to US actions, I asked China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials, Just a Start?
On February 18, 2024, I discussed How China Gets Around US Sanctions on Semiconductors
The US is far ahead of China on technology, but China is gaining ground faster than anyone thought.
June 4, 2024: Chip Wars, China’s Goal Is to Cut Out the US
The US is restricting China’s access to advanced microchips. The US will regret the move in one of two ways. China will become self-reliant or there will be a real war.
When Trade Ends, Wars Start
One of the Three Reasons Japan Attacked Pearl Harbor was the US cut off Japan’s access to oil and natural resources. War became inevitable. Japan chose to strike first.
The US and China are in a global trade war. And the EU is on the verge of joining that trade war, egged on by the US.
However, the end game is easy to spot. Either China will be successful at advanced chip production at a pace that satisfies China, or China will move to take Taiwan by force.
China Became More Self Reliant
Actions by Biden forced China to become self-reliant on making chips. The US was shocked at how fast that happened.
Chinese chips are not good enough for AI, but they are good enough for 5-G phones, autos, and most devices.
Meanwhile, Biden blocked mines in the US.
Where is This Headed?
The short answer is wherever Trump takes it.
Currently, the US gets around China’s exports restriction by buying rare earths and superhard materials from Japan or Germany. However, the original source is China.
If Trump escalates the trade war big enough, then China could and would shut off all rare earth and superhard exports to every nation.
Thus, Trump’s 50 percent tariff threats on China will do one of two things, perhaps both: Block all rare earth exports from China or start WWIII.
Good luck with that.
Oh, I forgot to add: Trade wars are good and easy to win.
China needs markets and the USA needs stuff. They’ll work it out.
It’s Bidens doing not Trump.
This is a two-way street – China accelerates chip technology in response to US embargo much faster than expected. So the west will advance materials production faster than we expect due to Chinese embargo. The world goes ’round. Short term pain, long term gain. Was it ever thus. Nothing to see here.
Except for the short-term gains and consequently the long-term pains.
I sure hope the Trump play book has been looking several steps ahead. There needs to be a wayout before there is no return. Making things up and taking notes from the far right media is getting the USA in a far worse place. Saying things just so you can make it on Fox and Friends and see yourself on TV is not getting the USA too far. Just shooting from the hip without a plan is already having consequences that are going down the wrong path. Trump messed so much up the first time we can only hope this is not another repeat. His handling of COVID the worst thing to happen to the World in 100 years could have been handled far better. Now he is stirring up a trade war.
The obvious US response is to cut off food exports to China along with pressuring other countries to do the same.
As a net importer of food, it won’t be long until the people start getting hungry. I expect population unrest due to lack of food long before there is unrest here over lack of rare earth manufactured goods.
Yes. China is a big importer of food from Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, New Zealand and the US (we are #4). I doubt we can prevent the other countries from selling all the food they can to China. What is more likely to happen is that China will import even more from those countries while refusing to buy food from the US.
They may buy food from the US when the US government sells food below the costs of production.
The sad thing is the West willingly put itself in a position of depending on a foreign country for critical manufactured goods.
“free trade” and “economic libertarians” utterly fail to understand that the world is not nice. Nixon opening trade with China, the neoliberal Reagan, Thather, Bush, Clinton, Obama and Biden gave China most favored nation status, US corporations loving the profits exporting labor and manufacturing and in the end, all to give China everything they need to do exactly this – become a PLANNED global powerhouse and to control the US with all our unemployed, dead manufacturing and who can’t live without Chinese goods for our basic needs.
Nice move, but hey, the wealthy got theirs, ‘cuz FREE MARKETS!!!
…but wait! Don’t try tariffs to bring the manufacturing back home, because… FREE MARKETS!!!
The neoliberal politicians (talking to you, Biden) and US corporations created this China mess to the detriment of the US people, and still, we hear of free markets everywhere. There is a place for US economic “warfare”, and now is the time.
I may mention the neoliberal MSNBC just had a piece critical of Trump and protectionism:
NAFTA and China as MFN status allowed the US to offshore low value products to make things cheaper for the US and let us focus on high value productsit also made those countries more wealthy so they can buy our high value goodsTrump wants to stop that – ie, badUmm, so in the US, things from poor countries are cheaper, but you lost your job and whole regions of the US are broke living off welfare, so net-net? No, a loss.
Umm, so those in other countries making low value stuff are making enough so they can buy the high value stuff from the few companies in the US? No, another loss.
That’s the logic? How’d that go?
Trump is great! In a few months you are going to wish Biden were still President.
Things are going to get very interesting after December 6th.
F China, this is what it’s all about. They are the enemy, plain and simple and we have been pussyfooting around it for decades to exploit cheap labor. A crossroads is coming. Historically, a major was is inevitable. Never in history has their not been war, it’s a matter of time and it’s time to condition Americans for it like we used to be.
Well this is rich. We have been telling you that we can’t continue our free trade with China because of security concerns and when the consequences finally materialize, instead of saying we were right, you blame it on Trump?! TDS much?
Things to hoard before Trump’s tariffs take effect and prices double..
a) shoes
b) most household electronics
c) most housewares.
d) most clothing
e) most kids’ toys
f) feel free to add. Don’t forget to add sales tax to the repriced items
The net result (in the short term) will be a massive decline in the global standard of living. It remains to be seen if tariffs can generate cost-effective manufacturing of replacements. Likely the price will not go down after tariffs are in place.
Economies of globalization replaced economies of scale. In a tariff-world, we have dis-economies of localization, fragmentation, protectionism, isolationism, autarky…
A deflationary spiral.
Only incompetent politicians would allow this to happen, but really the entire country suffers from the same idiocy. .It is time every American kid was trained to think consequentially.
To the down voters… how many times do you look at the ‘Made in….” label and not buy?
It is hypocritical not to realize that American short-sighted thinking, preferring ‘cheap’ over more expensive ‘US-made goods’ is to blame for the trade deficit and the decline of US industries/relocation to low-cost producers. We did it to ourselves.
Right now, it’s rare minerals. Next week, it is drugs manufactured overseas, ships, ….. and shoes. It took 50 years to globalize the world economy, where production shifted to the low cost producer. How many years will it take for protectionism to bring the same amount of production, and at what cost?
Japanese government archives studied after the war showed that Japan had been planning the sweep south well before the US cut the exports of oil and steel. They knew that for their empire to prosper they had to control those resources themselves and not be dependent on the US or any other nation for that matter. They knew they had to do it but they were timing it for a few months later. They thought that the US would not react when Japan moved into French Indochina but Roosevelt reacted right away. Their plan to attack Pearl Harbor was already in the works. The idea that Japan would not have made their move south at all is ludicrous and not supported by paper evidence and interviews with the principal architects. Nevertheless this false trope keeps getting quoted as fact when it is not. Sorry Mish.
Wouldn’t have mattered to me if they were speaking Japanese in Australia and New Zealand now – or Chinese in two generations from now. What barn/stall is Jacinda hiding out in these days?
Yes, the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere concept predated Pearl Harbor.
That’s why Japan had invaded China/IndoChina etc in the early 1930s almost 10 years before Pearl Harbor. The plan was always for them to control that entire area far enough south to get access to oil in Indonesia.
The US Embargo just sped up the timeline.
Mish you have been shouting this for a very long time! Excellent article once agin!
Trump is a financial illiterate!
Trump has merely preempted what would have happened had the US responded to Chinese aggression against Taiwan.
– Ministry of Commerce; December 3, 2024:
Any organization that violates the our provisions and transfers or provides relevant dual-use items originating in the People’s Republic of China to organizations and individuals in the United States will be held accountable according to law.
Note: Officially implemented from the date of publication.
> Wow! No small thing…
– Sales of “Gallium” (Used in the production of semiconductors and integrated circuits due to its unique electrical properties).
– Sales of “Germanium” (Used in Fiber Optics, and Defense Industry).
– Sakes of “Antimony” (Used in Defense Industry as a key element of the American war machine, essential for communication equipment, night vision goggles, explosives, ammunition, nuclear weapons, submarines, warships, optics, laser sighting and more, according to A U.S. Army Major General).
Who needs all that crap… Oh S&#@! We Do!!!
– Sales of materials to the United States would be halted immediately on the grounds that they have dual military and civilian uses, China’s Ministry of Commerce said. The export of graphite would also be subject to stricter review.
> Well surely the Biden / Harris Administration saw this coming 3-4 years ago at the latest? They have “Multiple Plans” in place Right?
– The US Department of Energy has placed some of the rare earth minerals we need for weapons systems, “windmills”,batteries, and aircraft on a critical materials list.
> “Seriously” Windmills on a “Critical List” along with “Weapons Systems & Aircraft”
WTF is wrong with these people???
Maybe they’re fighting stupid with stupid?
IT is gearing up for war, and your politicians are incompetent a-holes.
Biden & Harris have really screwed things up, I most certainly agree. We have lived under 4 years of sheer incompetence!
Let’s all hope come 1/20 we’re still “Not in War” and have enough money left in our coffers, to heat our homes up North, and fill up our GV’s! (EV’s are officially a thing of the past, to be revisited in roughly 4 years or hopefully it will be 8 years minimum, and then the idea will be pushed back another 10-15 years, so we’re truly ready and prepared for the shift over. We don’t need anymore boondoggles to bog us down in wishes and prayers. We need things that work NOW!!
We must keep vigilant on few things right now however, and those are:
1. Bird Flu Panic, which means a new “Clot Shot” perhaps?
2. Sun Blockers, as the idea to block out the Sun has been asked or and wished to be tried by our scientist (aka Gods), and where it hasn’t been tried and failed like so many others, it may be pushed next!
3. I hear lots of rumblings about “Mask” the we know don’t work for anything, but to prove “Control” over you. They will mandate again for Federal Places like Airports/Planes, Any Federal Bldgs, try to force Cities and States to comply or lose some funding of some sort? They only have a small window to creat some havoc, and throw cogs in the wheels.
4. A New Made Up THING.
How hard is it to keep track of market production in China and take appropriate actions to find / create alternative production sites? Its fucking unbelievable how shoddy this government is.
It’s truly just not that easy. I would feel exactly the same if it were. That’s why I am more pissed that they stopped drilling for so many things we do really need! It adds up fast, overtime and industries, and crucial elements…
China was smart and included those items that are needed to make stuff. A massive chunk of Chinas approach, is to control those secondary items, which with out is like having lumber, but no nails to build anything with it.
Some of those are the items that we stopped drilling for, and have not been adding drilling sites. Those could take up to 5 years or so to be constructed and working, so as to produce usable product. In other words we basically “Handcuffed” Ourselves!!!
Oh, but 10% for the “Big Guy”
Clearly, China is going to force the rest of the world to find new deposits of rare earth substances and to set up new mines to dig them up. China would do better to string along America and prevent such a lessening of dependence. In their short-sighted tit-for-tat reasoning, they’re killing the goose that lays the golden egg.
America is a great customer to have, which is why the world chases after the American greenback despite repeatedly being ignored or slandered by Americans. (The rude American can give the rude Frenchman a run for his money.)
It seems to me that nations around the world want to be on America’s radar screen and noticed by Washington and Hollywood. This is why there was a 9/11 attack — because it got the islamic Arabs notice.China too seeks to be noticed in a positive way. Do you think they want to be hated by the de facto ruler of the world?
Although China has been catching up to America, on a per capita basis it is a much poorer nation. Just look at the way American farmers in the Midwest live compared to Chinese farmers in their Western provinces. There’s no comparison. China’s rate of growth has slowed dramatically. They’ve picked all the low-hanging fruit that there is to be had. Even Japan, a mature economy, falls short on the production of computers and airplanes, two areas where the European Union and the United States excel. China can’t do shit by comparison.
You can read more of my writings by going to: dark . sport. blog … on the net.
Think about it from the perspective of another country trying to emerge from the THird World. Remember the US could not win in Vietnam, or Afghanistan…..
In the present, US aircraft carriers are sitting ducks for hypersonic missiles. You don’t have the people to man your ships. The military will need years to get over DEI.,,,
Your only choice is delay and try to repair a bad situation. Otherwise, use nuclear offensive strikes. Why? Another long drawn-out expensive war will end the Republic.
Notice how countries are now siding with your enemies, especially when their economies need boosting?
Maybe the lesson is if you aren’t competitive, don’t raise tariffs. Instead, generate your own momentum by innovation.
Sanctions are useless and never work…
Ask the Russians:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB
US sanctions were in place in early 2022. Look at the chart again using a 5 year time frame. There is far more involved in exchange rates than sanctions.
Sanctions helped protect fledgling US manufacturers in the early 1900’s.
Inflation, inflation and inflation.
coming!
Can pretty much guarantee there is some company out there that saw this day coming.
Preparing for it and waiting for payday.
Maybe not a turn key start but not so much to get things going given some regulatory relief which would get granted when situation became dire enough.
When there is a party of nut cases running this country it is not Genius to understand something would get screwed up, Big time.
When Government screws up they throw money to fix it.
Since this Blog is supposed to be about trading, consider all the effucks of Biden regime and think about how that will get reversed.
One of them remains the emphasis on EV and Green tech which continue to fall short of mark. The Trade against what has happened past four years is investing in new generation ICE engines on premise ICE engines will not be so easy to replace functionality.
It’s basically too late to make suggestions for this topic….the US will just live with the downstream effects.
Although the right time to rotate out of wind, solar, and battery-tech stocks into mining stocks was Nov 4th….still not too late.
That said, will China strand their investment and lose the jobs? Likely simply more “negotiation”…
This is not the first hint that supply chain war might ensue as the USA gets too heavy handed in dealing with other countries. Why haven’t alternative supplies been developed?
Because it is easy for politicians to sit on their asses and pretend everything is awesome….
One word: asteroids!
Strongly agree. But to do this, we need a real space station that contains factories and labs. It would need to be many times larger than the sorry excuse for a space station that the ISS is, maybe 10 or more miles in diameter and of a spoked wheel design.
But are there enough asteroids that could be captured in near Earth orbit to make this work? Perhaps better to set-up mining/manufacturing on the Moon and then ship the products to Earth.
More profitable than hemorrhoids.
Maybe in 20-30 years, mining and refining might be viable in space, assuming prospecting identifies deposits..
So, the only consensus around this comments section is what, grab your political team’s flag and start blustering? I’m sure that’ll be so gratifying to be right. Meanwhile we are strapped to the nose-cone of this situation. “I told you so” or winning a blame-game is completely meaningless in the face of this situation. (See Francisco Goya’s painting, two guys slugging it out as they both sink in quicksand.) This is a matter of time and materials, and I’m not qualified to say the probabilities, but as of this moment, whatever the numbers, we are facing a new doubling-down in both nations that raises the risk of a very severe outcome all around, potentially existential, as Mish observes. The backward-looking attack-and-defend game is so absolutely common to online comments, fine. But so redundant. It is tactically useful for both Xi and Trump to be unpredictable in this game of chicken. Humanity is a passenger in these cars.
Trump isn’t President yet. Meanwhile Ukraine is burning and ceasefire in Israel is nearly broken already. Give peace a chance.
Find the US Citizen having the most interactions with top foreign leaders — and you’ve found the president.
Taylor Swift
Just mini samples of WWIII.
Only testosterone deprived idiots can think that the tough guy John Wayne attitude can work to solve international disputes. But many americans love the tough macho man attitude, because that is the guy who always wins in the movies. Do you feel lucky, punk?
Yes low T like Trudeau is the way to go. Here’s some Tofurkey Andy.
If I was eating Tofurkey it would have shot out of my nose from laughing!
Make my day.
We need more diplomatic joy?
What gets me is their icons of manliness are usually sporting a pair of boobs.
The tough guys are needed for war, which is surely on the horizon. The US is short on states’men.’ Instead, we had the criminally incompetent Virginia Nuland, Jake Sullivan et al. What’s next?
No immunity now for Hunter. Can’t wait for his testimony on all the deals. Will Biden pardon himself. That would be a first.
Yes, he’ll pardon himself (and brother; maybe anyone with 1% Biden DNA … like reverse reparations) same rationale …hostile incoming administration.
I imagine doing his son before sentencing and leg-irons looks less desperate.
It’s soooo unfair (wah-wah) that his son was prosecuted by HIS OWN DoJ!
Even pardoned it isn’t over for Hunter not by a long shot.
I heard he will pardon the entire deep state
“It takes decades to get a mine up in the US and mining is one thing. Processing is the second. China controls about 90% of global rare earth process. No other county has the technology.”
That sounds like a problem with or without tariffs. I guess we better lean on whomever controls the remaining 10% of global rare earth processing.
Re-opening past shut down / uneconomic mines won’t take “decades”.
The processing is interesting … best done off-shore away from the EPA and OSHA (hello Mexico, … my old friend).
Exactly!
Trump will create chaos, volatility and ultimately massive inflation. The people that voted for him will get exactly what they deserve. That or the magical, mystical promised land. Is there a polymarket to place bet on these options?
No matter what happens, Trump & GOP will own it 100%.
That’s true. Trump and GOP will own it. The same way the Dems and your party trashed the place over the last 4 years. Which is why they lost. Rather than hold your people accountable, all you have is rage toward anyone who called out reality. You have to do better than this.
Exactly. Same guy who said Trump had no chance all year. He has no clue
My party? I have no party, I can’t stand either, it’s always a choice between a barrel of rotten apples or rotten oranges. What part of me saying I’m leaving the U.S. for years have you not understood?
And you’re about to enter a whole new reality that’s going to be very painful. Enjoy it, I’ll be exiting soon and living like a king 😉 in parts unknown.
Then things would have been just as bad under Harris and you would be writing the same way? Nope. You have a party. Clearly. And you are beholden.
“Then things would have been just as bad under Harris”
And have I not repeatedly said that it is going to be bad no matter which clown is in office repeatedly for years? The core issues are debt, demographics, and despondency.
Debt & demographics are a permanent unsolvable problem. Despondency can be fixed with the right leader that can bring both parties together but that’s never going to happen with the current demographic & political situation.
It’s game over, you’ll eventually figure it out or it’ll hit you right over the head soon enough. You’ll soon have 80m people asking for handouts on the backs of a working 140m at best but maybe as few as 100m when Trump kicks out everybody he doesn’t like.
Apologies for being the one to have to tell you the truth, most can’t handle it but there it is….
Don’t worry, I’ll be watching from halfway around the world with a large bowl of popcorn, Jacuzzi, and great company. I won’t be asking for a mail in ballot.
Bon voyage!
“Parts unkown” you say. You going to hangout with the Ultimate Warrior? Can I come?
Why wait?
You can get a nice little farm in Tasmania (safe from nuclear war) for about US$2 million.
Blah blah blah. Biden owns the dogshit last 4 years. Eat that up you clown
U mad bro?
Swing state voters were.
Marc Andreessen said that Biden’s planned AI was going to be the “control layer” for everything. He talked about 30 founded tech companies that had already been debanked, with no avenue of appeal. It caused the Democrat billionaire to support Trump. Did the American people deserve AI control layer totalitarianism under Harris?
Right you are, MPO! Kamala’s world is infinitely better, especially for the mutilated kids, foreign hordes crossing the border, endless DEI, and endless babble..
We’ve already has massive inflation under Biden. Useful things like single family housing and cars are far more expensive.
You are assuming they wouldn’t do this on their own anyway. The whole point is that we should be self sufficient whenever possible. These aren’t as rare as you think. The will to get them in our own territory has not always been there. Maybe that will change and it will be a change for the better.
You are making way too much sense for this blog. Please be mindful of all those here with TDS.
“Oh, I forgot to add: Trade wars are good and easy to win.”
Was there not some really ignorant Rich President-in-Waiting who said that same thing, Mish?
/sarc
Just send Hunter over, re-up his Biden crime family cred by some tit-for-tat negotiating (not forgetting 10% for the big guy) and give China everything they want. Isn’t that how we got here?
12/1/24 will never be forgotten
Like “Remember the Alamo”?
Come on, there’s no way that’s a bigger deal or more rememberable than:
1/7/71
Great!
Just another reason to call the entire Biden tenure an utter disaster.
If the orange haired buy had been elected, Russia wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine and we’d be well on our way to finding out how inflationary tariffs are or are not.
And bonus, we’d already have some rare earth mines up & running as well as strategic partnerships with other countries, so we can end around China.
This is trump running his mouth and “negotiating.” Spin it all you like… this is the first fail of his second term.
Nice -7 down votes, bro! You seem to be losing.
This rare earth metals problem is entirely Brandon’ in the making.
The guy is literally the worst president ever by 1,000,000 miles.
He was never mentally competent to be president.
His promises of united America have been everything but so.
He has done more harm to America in less than 4 years than radical left-wing nuts did in the prior 20 years.
And as for Trump, he’s far from perfect. Hopefully, he’s going to have a lot of wins which will MAGA. But, he’s going to take some loses as well, but this was not a Trump loss. It’s not his problem to fix for another 6 weeks of so.