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China Calls Trump’s Bluff, Trump Backs Down, Now What?

Who is winning the trade war so far?

A Bloomberg’s opinion writer says China Wins Without Fighting While the US Flails but the correct answer is no one.

From artificial islands to pressure on Taiwan to trade deals with Vietnam, Xi’s hand just gets stronger.

Negotiate? Trump wishes, but don’t forget that Xi has Sun Tzu on his night table. “This will result in China becoming even more self-reliant. Its tech industry has already been navigating years of export restrictions that have forced it to do more with less and spurred top-down support for broader tech goals,” writes Catherine. “Silicon Valley firms that rely on Chinese suppliers will be hurt… The signs of defeat are piling up.”

So are the signs of complete anarchy, with Trump ping-ponging between holding a tough line on tariffs and passing out easy exemptions on Chinese-produced iPhones and laptops. “These endless iterations impose an enormous burden of uncertainty on US consumers and producers alike.

No Winners

If making Trump look like a fool constitutes winning, then the US lost more than China. But there are no winners when trade grinds to a halt.

CNN reports Trump was warned of empty shelves and financial turmoil from tariffs and firing Powell. His U-turn pushed stocks higher.

President Donald Trump’s unprecedented tariffs, particularly on China, and recent attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell caused alarm among some of his top advisers and America’s biggest CEOs, who warned of financial chaos and store shelves that could go bare, people familiar with the conversations said.

The warnings — and the markets’ own volatility this week — seemed to have broken through. Trump backed down Tuesday from his threats to try to remove Powell from the job, telling reporters in the Oval Office: “I have no intention of firing him.”

That prompted sighs of relief on Wall Street. A day after markets boomed on comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that Trump would seek to de-escalate the trade war with China, US markets gained again on Wednesday.

There is a “2 to 3-year timeline for the full rebalancing,” Bessent told a group of reporters on Wednesday after delivering a speech at an event hosted by the Institute of International Finance.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday said on Fox News there will be “no unilateral reduction in tariffs against China.”

“The president has made it clear China needs to make a deal with the United States of America, and we are optimistic that will happen,” Leavitt said. “And when that continues, it will be up to the president what the tariff rate on China will be.”

Trump’s notable shift in tone toward Powell and China came a day after he met privately in the Oval Office with chief executives of four major US retail companies who conveyed concerns about rising economic fallout from Trump’s tariff policy and the uncertainty it has created for financial markets.

The CEOs of Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s, all of whom delivered a blunt message about interruptions in the supply chain and its effects on consumers, were invited to the White House as part of an ongoing internal campaign to make the case to Trump about the real-world impact of his policies, administration officials said.

Trump’s tariffs have placed significant pressure on the retail sector. The business leaders warned that store shelves across America could “soon be empty,” two people familiar with the meeting said, as they presented a dire economic picture that could come into sharper view within weeks.

For weeks, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and other senior advisers have been fielding alarming calls from business leaders about the fallout from Trump’s tariff policies and his ongoing threats to fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Taken together, the president’s words have rattled markets and shaken confidence in the administration’s stewardship of the economy.

Leavitt said Tuesday that Hassett had recently changed his mind on the Fed after Powell insisted the central bank wouldn’t rush a decision to cut rates.

“I also spoke to Kevin Hassett about the Fed as well and he has called into question the Fed’s independence and whether they are actually doing things out of the best interest of the economy or are they doing it for partisan reasons,” she said.

But White House officials had long determined that firing Powell would spark legal challenges and market tumult.

And if any study was actually underway, Trump suggested Tuesday it wasn’t necessary. He said in the Oval Office he “never did” have any intention of removing Powell from the job.

PinkWashing Trump’s White Flag

Repeating lies does not make them true.

OK Trump can set tariffs rates on China however stupidly he wants. But he cannot control China’s response.

And China’s current response was to smack to the jaw that had Trump backing down.

That was followed by pinkwashing Trump’s white flag (for now) with nonsense by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who proclaimed “President Trump hasn’t offered to take down U.S. tariffs on China on a unilateral basis

But no one ever made the claim that Trump said that. What Trump did say was he plans to be “very nice” to China in any trade talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. Trump also said he didn’t see the need to “play hardball” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Trump on Wednesday told reporters that his administration will get a “fair deal” with China on trade, adding more broadly that negotiations with countries “are going very well.”

Xi senses Trump’s weakness and stated that any talks with Trump must be based on respect.

China Open to Talks If US Shows Respect

Bloomberg reports China Open to Talks If US Shows Respect, Names Point Person

China wants to see a number of steps from President Donald Trump’s administration before it will agree to trade talks, including showing more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of his cabinet, according to a person familiar with the Chinese government’s thinking.

Other conditions include a more consistent US position and a willingness to address China’s concerns around American sanctions and Taiwan, said the person, who asked not to be identified to discuss internal thinking.

It’s unclear what will produce a breakthrough to get talks moving. While both sides have indicated they’re open to negotiations, Trump appears determined to get Xi on the phone straight away while China wants any conversation between the leaders to produce a clear outcome.

Even then if they agree on process, fundamental questions persist on what any agreement would look like. Trump’s demands remain unclear, and tariff levels on China would need to remain high to achieve his goal of balancing trade and attracting manufacturers to the US.

Progress? Where?

It’s hard to claim progress in talks talks when there aren’t any talks. Then again, lies are expected from Trump.

And given Trump’s nonsensical definition of fair, he will not get a fair deal.

Trump also lashed out at the EU today.

“Every country wants to partake, even countries that have ripped us off for many, many years. China is an example, but it’s not just China, European Union. They ripped us off for many, many years, and those days are over,” said Trump.

Is that chest-pounding bravado supposed to bring the EU to the table or make them laugh?

Product Shortages

NBC says Product shortages seem to be making an impact on White House thinking about tariffs

The warning from companies this week about product shortages and empty shelves has appeared to have broken through with the White House more than the months of warnings about higher prices, according to a person familiar with business lobbying efforts around tariffs.

With the tariffs so high, they are effectively an embargo, because it is so prohibitively high to bring products into the country that companies just aren’t bringing in goods, the person said.

The White House is particularly concerned about shortages of products around the holidays, the person said. The Christmas ordering cycle is starting, and in the July Fourth holiday coming up, retailers might not have summer products, such as beach chairs, umbrellas, grills, fireworks or light-up trinkets.

NBC also reported Tariffs need to de-escalate before U.S.-China trade talks can begin

During a roundtable with reporters at the Institute of International Finance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States and China are not engaged in trade talks because the tariffs both countries have imposed on each other have “to be de-escalated before trade talks.”

Earlier in the discussion, Bessent told reporters, “I don’t think either side believes that the current tariff levels are sustainable, so I would not be surprised if they went down in a mutual way.”

He added that he does not have a timeline for talks to begin .Trump told reporters at the White House that the United States is “actively” talking with China.

It was that bit with Bessent that caused multiple white flag comments which in turn resulted in an amusing clarification from Bessent.

Bessent’s “pinkwash” was that Trump never said something that no one ever claimed Trump said.

Now what? The ball is in Trump’s court. Expect another fumble.

Related Posts

April 22, 2025: Treasury Secretary Mollifies the Markets (for Now) with Wishful Thinking

Bessent says the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate.

April 23, 2025: Let’s Discuss the Best Trump Tariff Prediction of the Day

Kudos to Pitfall Harry who accurately predicted the denial and collapse of buffoonery.

Meanwhile, I am pleased to report progress in talks that aren’t even underway.

How long will Bessent put up with these massive lies?

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Mish

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73 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
JeffD
JeffD
1 year ago

Trump will remove all tariffs. He’s weak, and a loser. The Democrats nailed it with their characterization of him as the Cowardly Lion from The Wizard of Oz.

CJW
CJW
1 year ago

Now who’s panicking?

Greg
Greg
1 year ago

When negotiating the person who talks too much usually loses.
Trump just can’t shut up. Is it any wonder he went bankrupt six times?

njbr
njbr
1 year ago

BANGKOK (AP) — China on Thursday denied U.S. President Donald Trump’s assertion that the two sides were involved in active negotiations over tariffs, saying that any suggestion of progress in this matter was as groundless as “trying to catch the wind.”
China’s comments come after Trump said Tuesday that the final tariff rate on China’s exports would come down “substantially” from the current 145%.
“China’s position is consistent and we are open to consultations and dialogues, but any form of consultations and negotiations must be conducted on the basis of mutual respect and in an equal manner,” said Ministry of Commerce spokesman He Yadong. “Any claims about the progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations are groundless as trying to catch the wind and have no factual basis.”

Flavia
Flavia
1 year ago
Reply to  njbr

It’s funny how we’re getting real news from the Chinese – and just lies from our own govt.

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 year ago

Tariffs will not work. In fact, they may even do the opposite, fail to bring manufacturing back and make America poorer in the process.
This article gives the 14 reasons why this is the case, how the United States could bring manufacturing back if it were serious about doing so, and what will ultimately happen with this wrongheaded policy. https://www.molsonhart.com/blog/america-underestimates-the-difficulty-of-bringing-manufacturing-back

Patrick
Patrick
1 year ago

As Pettis has stated very clearly for years, China’s economy is grossly dependent on exports and over production and the Chinese people pay a price for this by holding a minority share of GDP. Bessent has just reiterated this. What no one is admitting to is that following the path of labor arbitrage, US corporations have grossly benefitted in profit margins, CEO pay has gone into the stratosphere and we have created an oligarch class which apart from its tight grip upon its gold, is not that bright and has become embedded in social engineering for the worse. China’s over production is a big problem, the US can’t sustain its over financialized position with diminishing returns on debt, as the middle class is hollowed out. Nor can it import peasants to recreate the middle class. As Bessent says, China is not going to change this by itself and he is correct. Its the CCP’s grip on political power. This blog and threads here have become for the most part, a screed blaming Trump for filling your diapers with poo poo and pee pee. Yeah, no. You’ve filled your own diapers. Time to clean up the mess. Corporate America and the oligarch class for the most part have gone hook line and sinker for globalization, not sustainable, never was. Entertainment does not an economy make, yet here we are.

Jon
Jon
1 year ago
Reply to  Patrick

China is, in fact, working to change its export driven economy by itself. It is working to get export businesses partnered up with internal retailers. The problem is that the Chinese economy is wildly competitive. On a scale the US has never imagined. Exporters export because the profit margins are far, far better and they have the relationships and know-how to export. China is actually looking at a massive increase in social programs also. Putting into place the programs FDR put into the US during the Great Depression in order to reduce the need to save and creating confidence to spend. That’s happening now, even though it goes deeply against Chinese culture.

Patrick
Patrick
1 year ago
Reply to  Jon

Is this from the Little Red Book? Pass the dim sum.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago

China keeps stacking empty shipping containers at ports. Empty containers can only stack 7 high.
Mish says China is winning and the soon to follow bankruptcies of producers in China is what is called winning.

Lot of hungry producers in other parts of Globe are striking deals with US. There is no shortage of people wanting to do business with US.

The economic collapse in China which has been glossed over in financial press is now accelerating.

US will experience some lessening of product on the shelf temporarily as supply chains get reoriented. Inconvenience is not equal to a National emergency.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

Stronger then expected Durable Goods numbers this morning.
That’s odd isn’t the US supposed to have a failing economy under Trump?

Jon
Jon
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

They exploded under Biden when the economy completely failed. So their is obviously no direct relationship.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago
Reply to  Jon

You are attempting to make a case that durable orders are not what creates an economy? Thanks for the morning laugh.

Biden failed because his party does not understand anything other then spending via deficits as a mechanism of nominal GDP growth.
Trump makes full effort to recreate a middle class via a historical model of earning then spending. Thus creating a low inflation environment from increasing productive effort thru investment Capital.

Two starkly differing approaches.
Would point to the vast difference between Yellen a career Government Keynesian and Bessent with a career of private investment experience.

Last edited 1 year ago by Richard F
Kurticus Maximus
Kurticus Maximus
1 year ago
Reply to  Richard F

you are seriously arguing that china is in a weak spot here? China is happy to furlough some workers for a while if the net effect is to spank and humiliate trump. China produces 60% of all merch sold in Walmart and currently most shipments are frozen. How long do you think your average american will put up with shortages and price gauging? I am thinking between 0 to 10 minutes.

Richard F
Richard F
1 year ago

As I wrote there will be some inconvenience for a short time as supply chains get reconfigured. But if you believe that low input common commodity type consumer goods are not easily produced somewhere other then in China then why is Modi so busy talking with Trump administration or Milei of Argentina just got IMF reprieve as he restructures his country?

Rubio has managed to stop Doge at State as the higher calling is to mend fences and build relations with countries who want to be friends of USA.

USA does not need China’s CCP

Milei by the way is implementing libertarian platform agenda but never any discussion offered about what sort of Model that would be for the continent of South America.

Last edited 1 year ago by Richard F
Derecho
Derecho
1 year ago

After seeing the reactions to covidcon, the average American obviously has alot of patience for bs.

Patrick
Patrick
1 year ago

Did you stack up on crap at Walmart before you wrote this? Winning!

PapaDave
PapaDave
1 year ago

Hahahaha!

Yesterday Trump says Europe and China are ripping off America. But he can’t get either of them to negotiate because they both know he has a weak hand and is bluffing.

He reiterated claims that he doesn’t want to buy vehicles made in Canada. And that the US continues to subsidize Canada. And that they should become the 51st state.

Today, the rumour is that he will soon decrease his auto tariffs.

What a show!

alx west
alx west
1 year ago

What Trump did say was he plans to be “very nice” to China in any trade talks and that tariffs will drop if the two countries can reach a deal. Trump also said he didn’t see the need to “play hardball” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
=====

what if month or two weeks ago TRUMP WOULD SAY : LETS MAKE DEAL or I will introduce tariffs???

would it be better for talks? i heard Trump is master of negotiations!! he wrote a book. jesus!!!!

appears he is just mo11ronic bul11ly

El Capitan
El Capitan
1 year ago
Reply to  alx west

But that wouldn’t play with his insane base. They like the “tough guy” (and Trump likes the “tough guy” role). See the next comment for an example. It seems to me that republicans always respond to the tough guy approach to an issue (don’t forget how tough Bush was with the terrorist before embarking us on 20 years of war costing 2 trillion dollars and winning us nothing). So, the base demands “tough”, then that approach turns to disaster, then they disown their guy and move on to the next “tough” guy.

Ash
Ash
1 year ago

You are overlooking numerous reports of Xi’s recent trip around SE Asia having been a big flop. Singapore’s ex 1st lady (and CEO in her own right) openly attacked him for behaving like a mob boss; Thailand refused the visit because of all the BRI ‘tofu-dreg’ construction recent collapses in earthquakes, even Cambodia went along with US demands that they stop all the ‘origin laundering’ done in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Canada and Mexico. All the nations in SE Asia have agreed to stop it and recent shipments into Vietnam from China were refused. That is significant progress. Apparently many of the nations doing this are not entirely happy with the arrangement: Chinese often ship in their own workers, cheat on the percentage of ownership laws (49-51%), with BRI projects they use sub-par materials and so on.

I think there is way too much fixation on Trump’s character and moods. This is partly because he invites it with his overly chatty and bombastic style, for sure, but also because the many enemies he has in the Establishment still demonize him 24/7 and this has an effect. They have been working on this for years and are a pretty bright bunch. I suspect they are mainly using the tariff announcements as a ‘come to Papa’ enticement and their intention is to have most of the uncertainty put to bed within the next two months, though possibly China will take longer. Meanwhile they are trying to mitigate any actual damage by tinkering. This is not so much backing down as fiddling around whilst the negotiations play out. Further, if they get good arrangements with the Asian players, that will do a huge amount to curtail China’s oversupply and cheating which is perhaps the single main purpose of all this.

So I think the situation is a little more nuanced and balanced than you portray.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago

Alberto Gracia and his MS-13 gang led like slaves to a Salvadorian prison is a warning shot to the Mexican cartel. Many people like what Trump is doing with them, but morons hate Trump show of power. The dems elite want them back for trials, bc it’s all about their diminishing power.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

If the supreme court cont to stop deportation these gangs will be shipped to military camps converted to prisons.

Kurticus Maximus
Kurticus Maximus
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

Alberto Gracia and his MS-13″ << this is off topic and stupidly partisan. but since you brought it up what evidence has been produced that this man is assoiciated with ms13 or any gang? or is his hispanic name enough evidence for you?

Patrick
Patrick
1 year ago

There’s no evidence that Hunter Biden’s laptop is real! Lulz. Two courts concluded that he was a member. Was he tried an convicted? No. But that’s different from evidence.

bmcc
bmcc
1 year ago

zion don is basically a schizophrenic. nobody can deal with that. leaders of nations, business owners, large and small. the employee class is screwed. we’ll have a currency crisis for sure. it’s the next step after a depression with a 2 trillion dollar deficit on top of almost 40 trillion debt. hold on to your hats. there will be lots of boating accidents with gold aboard.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago
Reply to  bmcc

The zion don might settle with Iran. Iran can keep her nuclear plants if they sell the US, or another entity, their stock of enriched U, which is good for 6 bombs. They can enrich U up to 4% to produce energy. They can’t use depleted U to build plutonium bombs, depleted U bombs, or bunker buster bombs. Bibi will sign. He will not stand in front of a speeding train.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago

A Yale prof produced a small booklet which compared Trump to Hitler and Stalin before the Oct 2016 election. The dems used this booklet, as Chinese repeated mumbling Mao red book quotations, for a decade.

alx west
alx west
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

=compared Trump to Hitler and Stalin

why?

why not compare to colonial rulers of france, or britain or USA, or spain
for 500 years those and other empires fuc11ked whole world

it is amazing to read about common knowledge of history from avg western folks.
as if history started in 20 century and russian revolution in 1917

Michael
Michael
1 year ago

If China wants a respectful Trump as a precondition of negotiation, this whole thing is doomed

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael

that’s what he is doing.

JGold
JGold
1 year ago

Maybe Trump should now consider heavily taxing capital inflows…or would that be crossing the Rubicon by choking off the Eurodollar?

https://www.deepthroatipo.com/its-not-about-tesla-or-alibaba-its-much-bigger-than-that/

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  JGold

Trump should consider calling Biden and asking what he should do, that would be an improvement on the current situation.

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago

The dems repeat their incoherent comments like dementia patients.

Last edited 1 year ago by Michael Engel
Kurticus Maximus
Kurticus Maximus
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

dude you add nothing other than mind-numbingly dumb, partisan and off topic comments. You might as well just post “thanks a lot Obummer” over and over again for all you add to the discussion

IRISH
IRISH
1 year ago

bully trump will look for excuses and someone o blame because in his demented mind he is infallible.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago

News articles with few actual facts but lots of strong opinions. You can discuss facts but you can only state opinions.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

Not sure how Trump’s having talks if China says there’s no talks going on.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/24/china-says-no-talks-with-the-us-on-trade-calls-for-canceling-unilateral-tariffs.html

“At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,” said Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson He Yadong.”

Who to believe? A chronic liar that reneges on his own greatest deals or the press and Chinese spokesperson? Hmmm……

Fact or opinion?

Last edited 1 year ago by MPO45v2
Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

The Chinese administration is known for never lying nor is Trump especially during negotiations. Both give accurate daily reports on proposals and counter-propositions. They want the press to be completely informed of the facts so they do not have to make up facts. Do you agree?

Last edited 1 year ago by Doug78
IRISH
IRISH
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

when doesnt trump lie

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

Doug,

It doesn’t matter, we’re all sailing on the Trumptanic™ powered by Turdonomics™ heading for the Trumpocolypse™ and we both know Trump will cave. 100 days in and it’s all starting to fall apart for MAGA. No surprises here, all too predictable but you go ahead and cling to those slithers of hope and snort as much hopium as you need to get through the day.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

What’s with the links to CNBC? I prefer the raw data or the original source. CNBC filters what they write.

HubrisEveryWhereOnline
HubrisEveryWhereOnline
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

The raw data for China saying they are not talking with Trump yet?

What a political hack/tool LOL

Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago

Trump isn’t bluffing Harvard Garber Penny Pritzker and Pritzker fatso bros. Yesterday he stopped Qatar money flow into our elite universities. He signed an EO to teach Harvard clowns basic math. Universities will have to measure “intellectual diversity” and “students academic results”. Woke is out. Trump is cleansing the crazy marxists and the pro Palestinians ideology. It will be replaced by American values. Harvard and Yale endowments, along with tariffs, will fund for free a new “American Academy”. The DOE will finance poor black and hispanics students whose grads will be hired by the gov and gov contractors, This academy will compete with Gavin Newscum CA state universities which charge $40K/Y. He ordered the DOJ to arrest the nihilists.

Last edited 1 year ago by Michael Engel
Michael Engel
Michael Engel
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

JD Vance wants to impose a 35% tax on endowments over $10B AUM. College prof
are the enemy. Yale is enemy #1.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

When you look at what they charge you I understand Vance.

IRISH
IRISH
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

vance is another moron.

IRISH
IRISH
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

trump was told that those EO’s he is sop fond of are not legal if outside of laws.

threeblindmice
threeblindmice
1 year ago
Reply to  Michael Engel

“Woke is out” except for criticisms of Israel. Then it’s full cancel culture. Weren’t conservatives defenders of free speech?

bmcc
bmcc
1 year ago
Reply to  threeblindmice

exactly. Zion Don and his mad cult of schizos should be rounded up with nets and straight jackets.

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

Oil isn’t running out, in fact, it’s everywhere — we’ve more than enough to fry the planet. But as the easy, cheap stuff has plateaued, production costs have soared. And as a consequence the most expensive oil to produce has become increasingly unprofitable.

https://energyskeptic.com/2019/nafeez-ahmed-venezuelas-collapse-is-a-window-into-how-the-oil-age-will-unravel/

And now ya’ll know what the main driver of inflation is

Kurticus Maximus
Kurticus Maximus
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

yeah thats why oil prices are in the toilet currently

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago

It’s not 8D chess when you’re a one dimensional character with one single tariff tool with binary thinking (tariff on/tariff off). Anyone with a functioning brain saw Trump’s caving coming from a light year away because central planning does not work no matter how many people want it to be so.

But what does it matter anyway, any deal signed by anyone with Trump is subject to tantrum changes on a whim or outright nullification.

The world needs to wait 1366 more days for sanity to return.

Pokercat
Pokercat
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

We hope we don’t have to wait for the end of the term for Trump to be gone. The next question is would Vance be better, it’s hard to imagine he would be worse. Would Vance replace the yahoos that Trump has picked for his cabinet or would Vance continue down the same path of destruction?

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 year ago

China is in third phase of its development
Apr 19, 2025
Recently, I happened to land on this amazing chart and something dawned on me; we are in a new phase of China’s economical development. China has remained so resilient and unyielding in this tariff war. It’s moved final assembly to SE Asia (which explains Xi’s state visit to Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia) and kept the higher value added parts. https://tphuang.substack.com/p/china-is-in-third-phase-of-its-development

I’m back robbyrob
I’m back robbyrob
1 year ago

Congratulations Stefanie Stantcheva, Clark Medalist 2025 !! https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-awards/bates-clark/stefanie-stantcheva

Rob D
Rob D
1 year ago

Wierd. China was posting that they were losing tons from US imports to China.

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

The best wells drilled in the Permain Basin HZ shale oil play are behind us now; the heart of the watermelon has been eaten.

Approximately 55,000 active HZ wells in the Permian Basin uncoventional shale play drilled since 2013 have produced aound 15 G BO. Thats 273,000 barrels of oil per well. The best wells for estimated ultimate recovery were drilled before 2016 on reasonable, rational spacing. Today. 50% of all HZ wells drilled in the Permian produce 30 BOPD and 140 BWPD, on artifical lift and are declining at the rate of 12% annually. 

Then there is this, on the left, which is indeed… staggering. 

Think about this chart of the left for a second, aside from the EUR issue and how it pertains to 80G BO of “recoverable resources” in the Permian…

The cost per barrel of shale oil to get it out the ground is more than oil sells for at the moment, with interest expense and dividends. That does not even include paying debt back. Trump drives oil down to <$50 net at the WH. Companies no longer able to borrow money have to STOP drilling wells; they can’t afford to drill wells. 50% of 11 MM BOPD of U.S. tight oil disappears in just 18 months. Over 5.5 MM BOPD, gone. What does the loss of 5 .5 MM BOPD do to the price of oil on the world market? 

See how stupid this drill baby drill plan was. Shale oil is not conventional stuff that declines 3% per year, if you are not drilling HZ shale oil wells, constantly, you remove a very large volume of oil from the market very quickly. You also destroy a sector of the oil industry that still has $200 B of long term debt, has already pissed off $500 B of debt (2012-2020) and still has tens of billions of dollars of plugging liability and instrastructure to rig down and dispose of. 

https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/oily-stuff-news-stuff

TexasTim65
TexasTim65
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

Removing 5.5 million barrels will push UP the price of oil. That in turn makes shale oil profitable again which spurs drilling which increases production. It’s self reinforcing.

Drill baby drill is only stupid if it floods the market and pushes down prices to below the drilling cost. The oil producers understand this perfectly.

Derecho
Derecho
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

If it makes you feel any better, my dad had declines of 5 to 12% for vertical oil wells and still ran a profitable oil company even when prices were low.
Also, the ‘scary’ chart actually shows an improved situation as opposed to 10 years ago. 18 month and younger wells are contributing less to the overall production totals now.

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago

The Wile E. Coyote Recession
So where are corporate profits going to come from as globalization, price-gouging, planned obsolescence, shrinkflation and immiseration run out of rope?
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/the-wile-e-coyote-recession

Fast Eddy
Fast Eddy
1 year ago
Reply to  Fast Eddy

Being Certain About Uncertainty

On our brittle, anxious, non-linear, incomprehensible world going nuts
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/being-certain-about-uncertainty

CzarChasm Reigns
CzarChasm Reigns
1 year ago

“Sources briefed on the progress say that the Trump administration is nearing memoranda of understanding with a handful of countries, including the United Kingdom, Japan and India, that would outline in loose terms more detailed negotiations that would follow.”

During his first term, Trump in the Oval Office railed against so-called MOUs, which he said ‘don’t mean anything. I wouldn’t go into a memorandum, I would go right into a trade agreement,’ he said in February 2019. ‘Either you’re gonna make a deal or you’re not.’”

Selected quotes from “Trump’s trade deals vexed by cautious countries, legal challenges and haphazard strategy“ https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/23/politics/trump-trade-deals-haphazard-strategy/index.html
Likewise, the words of King Chaos don’t mean anything.

Tony
Tony
1 year ago

And we thought Biden was incompetent.

VWDan
VWDan
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony

We KNOW Briben was incompetent and that unelected cabal were making the decisions.

Pokercat
Pokercat
1 year ago
Reply to  VWDan

Maybe it’s time to make some fundamental changes in the parameters considering age for elected officers. With minimum age set for Congress and the POTUS it’s time to set a maximum wage for those offices. How about maximum of 65 years old to run for any elected federal office.

Derecho
Derecho
1 year ago
Reply to  Pokercat

In Texas, the mandatory retirement age for state judges is 75.

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Tony

It won’t be long before people wish they had Biden’s juggernaut economy back but it won’t be visual till we get to the mid-terms and repubs are booted from Congress.

Trump’s Turdonomics™ ain’t working for anyone.

Doug78
Doug78
1 year ago
Reply to  MPO45v2

Balderdash! It was a fake economy running on an unprecedented influx of money borrowed by the government and spent willy-nilly on anyone with the right connections. It was a sugar high and not healthy growth at all.

john smith the third
john smith the third
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

Yes, and Trump will do the same. He has a lower pain threshold than the democrats

MPO45v2
MPO45v2
1 year ago
Reply to  Doug78

The “fake” economy stared when Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard. Another glorious republican screwing things up with the likes of Bush Sr, Bush Jr, Trump I and Trump II.

Avery2
Avery2
1 year ago

Buy made in China Halloween costumes at Walmart while they last?

Patrick
Patrick
1 year ago
Reply to  Avery2

Great for Tesla protests, they are highly flammable.

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