No surprises.
Federal Reserve Statement
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Anna Paulson. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
Two Trump Puppets Dissent
Stephen I. Miran was appointed by Trump and Waller is in the running to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.
Miran is an American economist who has served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors since September 2025. He has also served as the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers since January 2025, though he placed himself on leave in September.
Christopher J. Waller was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by President Donald Trump. He was nominated in 2019, confirmed by the U.S. Senate in a 48-47 vote on December 3, 2020, and took the oath of office on December 18, 2020, for a term ending January 31, 2030.
Both puppets dissented as expected.
No Dot Plots
There were no Dot Plots of expected future policy this month.
Live Video of Press Conference
You can also watch a Live Video of the Press Conference at the Federal Reserve website.
I expect questions on the US dollar. And I expect Powell will not answer. We will soon find out.
Words on My Bingo Card
Dollar, interest, jobs, Bessent, dissent, grounded, mulligan, strong, weak, resilient, expectations.
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“Look at all the business we are doing,” says Trump.
The only thing I’m liking about the state of the economy is that my investments are doing well. The rest of it pretty much sucks. Trump keeps saying prices are way down and inflation is so low. I think he’s looking through his rose colored glasses.I think he needs to go grocery shopping and pay utility bills. Things might be great for big investors, but for the general public? Not so much.
All you need to do is look at the appreciation of gold and silver to know what is happening to trust in the Trump administration or the Federal Reserves ability to control spending or ~ manage the credibility of the USD.
Since September 2nd the Fed has lowered interest by 100 basis points and the long bond yield has gone up.
Mining stocks remain extremely undervalued relative to their massive margin improvements.
Since this is an economics blog…
When is the next US credit downgrade?
Biden’s freezing Russia’s US dollar assets, held with the NY Fed, was the biggest policy mistake of all time. It sent the world looking for somethong else as a reserve (gold}. It didn’t happen overnight, but it is happening now. Got Gold?
Wrong. The US only holds $5B out of the worldwide total of $300B that are frozen.
If you think the world cares about $5B frozen due to Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ that was supposed to take 2 weeks —
–can I interest you in some spectacular oceanfront property in Arizona?
US freezes assets consistently, under the guise is “international rule based order”
Counterpoint:GOP peed their pants when we unfroze Iranian assets.
You’re selectively using data points to support thinly supported views.
Biggest policy mistake has been dropping the cheap labor provided by China, slavers/illegal immigrants who’ll never get their axes paid out, and the immense goodwill bought and paid for over decades with the EU.
why couldn’t Trump nominate himself. Dual Job for the phoney Dual mandate. donald could be potus and fed chair no problemo. He’s already The Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces and The executive branch President of the USA. I think the us congress has been abolished. And anyone with a half a brain understands that SCOTUS is just another legislative body. Unless you are still naive to believe they follow some old parchment paper some neo imperialists wrote down some by laws on their little private country club and yacht club.
He could but he would not get 50 votes
i guess i should have indicated i was being facetious and whimsical. he’d easily get 50 votes i would wager if it comes up for real.
Appoint Marco Rubio to head the Fed, he needs something else to do
I’ve pretty much dropped out of this blog on account of its unhinged material since Trump’s inauguration, but I do wonder, Mish, what about the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast pointing to 5.4% GDP growth in 4Q25?
That’s so strong that I will believe it only when I see it starting on Feb. 20 when the first number comes out, but I think the nowcast has been good enough for horseshoes in the past. Not perfect (nothing is) but a good deal better than a sharp stick in the eye.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so I am wondering when those numbers will be kicking in, at least if the nowcast is in the ballpark.
the dow/gold ratio can be applied to r/e too. also applied to median wages and cost of feeding a family or sending folks to trade school or college……..whatever. the problem is for most folks the cost of living unless priced in gold is really hard. for at least 5 years now. forget the stupid uniparty red v blue nonsense. trump is biden, on steroids……there are no conservatives.
Gold bugs bore me, but bore on.
p.s.: In case anyone here thinks I am somehow a Trumpanzee, I am not. I have cast write-in votes for president in the last three elections and have plenty of objections to the guy. But I am not unhinged about it, like so much of what I see on this blog and elsewhere.
Care to elaborate on what was unhinged? Otherwise, you’re coming across like a Trumpanzee, because most of what Mish posts is not only factual, but is in character with his posting of the past two decades.
Fine. Think what you want. I’m gone.
You’ll be much happier going to Fox News for all your information needs
“Hey host of this blog, I think you’re an asshole with TDS so I’m going to insult you to your face, but hey give me some advice you know?” Fucking douchebag.
I like how some blog posts are unhinged, but somehow, the past twelve months of this administration are somehow “business as usual”?
TWS is far stronger than TDS ever was.
Fuck you too, weirdo.
My what a sensitive little shit-stained cunt you are. Please come back for more bitch slapping snowflake. Just sad we’ll probably never meet in person.
Has there ever been a Fed chairman appointed with the intention that he/she would be the best for the country? or have they ALL been for best for his/her party/administration? Gold/Silver finally showing the direction our leaders have taken us.
Since Trump appointed Powell, do you think Powell was Trump’s best assessment for the country?
It’s the purple revolution. Powell has lost control of the money stock. Why do you think the $ is falling and gold surging?
It’s all fool’s gold my friend.
The late Dr. Daniel L. Thornton, a monetary economist from St. Louis Fed, May 12, 2022:
“However, on March 26, 2020, the Board of Governors reduced the reserve requirement on checkable deposits to zero. This action ended the Fed’s ability to control M1.”
The $ is being repudiated.
The latest H.4.! release shows the FED is tightening reserves.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/default.htm
aye and aye on all your analysis and links…….
correct
So do they have the votes to beat Powell’s replacement in May?
I’m starting to bundle FUNDS to back Howie Lutnick FOR FED CHAIR
Of course they held the range steady. All they EVER do is align the rate with T-bill rates.
No market panic. Two more cuts to come, they believe.
Just wait till trump gets his sticky little hands on the lever.
why couldn’t Trump nominate himself. Dual Job for the phoney Dual mandate. donald could be potus and fed chair no problemo
Isn’t the core issue a basic tension between Trump and the FED that centers around interest expense on the national debt? If my understanding is correct, a large chunk of our existing national public debt is in short duration T-bills. Something like 8 trillion in short term t-bills are expiring over the next year or so coupled with the on-going need to issue more debt to cover current account deficit spending. The Fed interest rate decisions impact more the short end of the yield curve (short duration T-bills). Lower interest rates equate to lower interest expense on the accumulated deficit for existing T-Bills that are expiring and have to be re-issued and for new current account debt issuance. Assuming this is accurate, the tension is really about Trump wanting to de-link interest rates from the Fed’s historic dual mandate of price stability and employment and refocus it on low interest rates to support lower deficit interest expense, which today is eating up an ever larger proportion of the nation’s tax revenue. Am I connecting the dots here more or less correctly?
No, you are not connecting the dots. The core issue is the US government spends money like drunken sailors and it’s out of control.
Complaining about the interest rate is the ocean complaining about the rain coming from the sky making the ocean wet.
To dry out the ocean you need to stop putting water in it altogether not reducing the size of the rain drops.
One thing we don’t need (among others) is a 50% increase in “defense” spending.
Trump wants the interest rates to come down because it allows lower-cost borrowing, and stimulates economic activity. He wants people to get mortgages at a lower cost, buy cars, invest in businesses, etc.
He could care less about the national debt or how much it costs to roll over short-term T-Bills into Treasuries.
don’t worry we’ll be getting our arthur burns in 4 months. “to the moon, alice”
Quote is directed at the inflation rate, YAY
No, the markets will crash before that.
meaning they will hit zero cursor at nyfed and treasury even more…….
banana republic, i mean banana empire. fed in 4month last gasp battle against the treasury and administration. argentina and italia and germany…………in past century…..
We have a couple of wheelbarrows at home
NO NEED FRIEND. summer intern at treasury and fed can just use the laptop and hit the zero cursors………
I’m sure it was a surprise to Trump who wanted cuts…..lol!
We will probably get a TT….lol
He’ll put 100% tariff on the Fed.
merge fed with treasury could occur. been there, done that.
Get ready for a huge rant on ‘Truth Social’ about how Powell, who Trump appointed, is “Too Late Powell”, the worst Fed president in the history of the Fed blah blah blah…