“Look at all the business we are doing,” says Trump.
Reporter: Mr. President has the dollar declined too much?
Trump: No. I think it’s great. Look at all the business we are doing. No.
US Dollar Index Technicals
- The US dollar index broke long-term trendline.
- First support is ~89
- Next support is ~79
Fundamentals
- Rising deficits
- Pressure on the Fed to cut
Understand that a falling dollar makes imports more expensive.
Trump is cheering inflation.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent knows this, but he won’t say it. He is a willing liar for Trump.
Bessent on the Strong Dollar Policy
Bessent says “The Strong Dollar policy is only doing things over the long haul to ensure that the US dollar remains the reserve currency of the world. And we are. … There is no change in policy.”
Lovely, I made a note.
Regarding “no change in policy” do you ever talk to Trump, listen to Trump? Do you fail to understand that a weakening dollar means higher prices?
And let’s discuss reserves.
Gold overtakes Treasuries as the World’s Largest Foreign Reserve Asset
On January 7, 2026 the Economiv Times noted Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the World’s Largest Foreign Reserve Asset.
Gold overtakes U.S. Treasuries as the world’s largest foreign reserve asset in 2026: Gold has climbed past U.S. government bonds to become the largest foreign reserve asset held by central banks worldwide, marking a major shift in global financial markets. The total value of gold held by foreign official institutions is now approaching $4 trillion, exceeding roughly $3.9 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996.
Central bank governors in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Eastern Europe, were the primary drivers of this demand. These institutions added over 1,100 tonnes of gold to their vaults in 2025 alone. They viewed the metal as a critical shield against inflation and potential asset freezes. As the U.S. national debt crossed the $38 trillion threshold, the “safe-haven” appeal of Treasuries weakened, leaving gold as the last standing pillar of financial stability.
Historically, central bank gold purchases averaged around 473 tonnes annually over much of the 2010s. Recent annual purchases have more than doubled that pace, signaling a structural shift in global reserve management.
Forecasts from major investment banks suggest gold could average $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year. The rationale is simple: the factors that drove the 2025 surge—geopolitical friction and high debt—have not been resolved.
About Those Forecasts
As I type, Gold is $5,214. So it’s safe to say that gold could average $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year.
And don’t look now (damn it, you looked) silver blasted through $100 all the way to $118 and is currently at $112.
But that’s OK because inflation is under control and the price of oil is headed to $50 according to Trump.
So, there is no need to check in on that idea (damn it you looked again, didn’t you). Well OK. West Texas Crude is up over 3 percent to $62.67.
Unfortunately, oil is priced in barrels not ounces.
A standard barrel of WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil contains 42 U.S. gallons. As there are 128 fluid ounces in one U.S. gallon, a single barrel of crude oil equals 5,376 fluid ounces.
Price per ounce, oil is only $0.012. The administration needs to get on the bandwagon with this comparison.
A 16-ounce bottle of WTI crude would only be 14 cents, much cheaper than a bottle of water.
How come no one is promoting this?
Oil Has Bottomed
I am willing to go out on a limb here and suggest oil bottomed at $55 in mid-December.
If so, oil is going to be adding to inflation this year.
Of course, demand could crash if jobs crash, but that’s one hell of a way to get to the $50 per barrel that Trump wants.
Related Posts
January 25, 2026: US Will Not Offer Security to Oil Firms in Venezuela, So Why Go?
Is the US going to run Venezuela or not? Maybe it runs itself.
January 27, 2026: What Do Truck Shipping Indexes Say About the US Economy?
Here’s a chart making the rounds. What does it say?
January 27, 2026: Consumer Confidence Dives to the Lowest Point since 2014, Below Covid Low
“Confidence collapsed in January.” But Why?
Mish
Thanks for pointing out the obvious fact that devaluing the dollar makes imports more expensive. You are truly a genius (yawn…).I guess you are worried that foreign countries won’t make as much money off the US, like they’ve been doing for years. Do you think that maybe we won’t buy as much stuff from overseas and might actually buy more of the stuff we actually produce here? Its basic Macroeconomics Mish…
Now lets talk about the effect of dollar weakness on US producers of goods and services. In a nutshell, our goods and services are now less expensive to those foreign countries,. As a result, we actually sell more goods and services internationally. Isn’t that a good thing? I guess not in your hive mind since you seem to want the US economy to take while Trump is in office.
DXY weakness has a long history of rises in EFA and EMM, Exactly like today. Trump’s series of peace deals has shifted capital back to areas that need rebuilding. You view this as DXY weakness when it is in fact strengthening US abroad. The data is pretty strong on this.
The Burning Platform: The Impossible Just Happened
Three 6-sigma events occurred in one week.
– Bonds
– Silver
– Gold
Oil may or may not have bottomed but I don’t expect E&P’s are going to rush to add capacity. Capital preservation in times of uncertainty caused by Trump is more important than selling a few more barrels today.
Trump’s statement is like asking the pilot to put the plane into steep dive, while it all ready at a low altitude, just so the plane will fly faster.
PS (Impeach and convict before things get worse)
Please explain how things are bad and getting worse Trump hater
Some good commentary on the dollar, particularly its role over recent history, its role as a reserve asset and use in transaction settlement and how the US is abusing its privilege.
Losing Dollar Supremacy… The Savage Consequences of Weaponizing the Dollar as a Political Cudgel
Thank you for this link. Very informative.
THANKS FOR THAT LINK. APPRECIATE
trump does not care. he has a trick up his sleeve. trump will simply reissue the new usd to replace the current usd. the rest of the world will be fit to be tied.
over a long extended bank holiday weekend the new usd will appear at banks. “A national emergency” will be declared and poof !
Mexico does it all the time. so will trump.
yup. easy peasy . has been done so many times. even in our empire
I have felt like I have lived in an insane asylum no better than Creedmore, since I was 10 years old. My defense is my bubble. Singing and dancing and reading and seeking out the few tiny percentage of thinkers in amerika that are not bootlicking nihilists. The ones who bring up the constitution, and laws….. really make me LOL the most. How the hell, can one be that delusional. It’s like some acid head that lost their mind for life after a bad trip…………
I don’t bother to talk to people anymore. Few know anything except NFL and all you can eat buffets. Many are waiting to virtue signal and leave in a huff if you say the obvious. I can identify with your observation.
i culled the herd in my life for the last 50 years. the thinkers are roughly 2% in this evil and nihilist empire. so i have many thinker friends. my family, childhood friends and professional friends are basically retarded nihilist brainwashed into the blue v red uniparty team. i guess it’s why i enjoy going to small time pro wrestling with my nephew about once per year. he is in the business of filming them…………no different from blue v red.
you nail it. The nihilist credo. me my and money. and sportsball and movies……..
panem et circenses
Reading and writing are widely mocked these days. People type two sentences of broken English and add lots of emojis. Intellectuals are considered freaks. I know a guy with a bachelor’s degree in English who brags about how he has never read a book in his life.
aye aye.
The fed needs to raise interest rates, and the federal government needs to reduce spending. If that ever happens, gold will collapse. There is not an inkling now of defending the dollar or austerity, so enjoy the ride. We bought gold etf’s back in 2020 given the shutdown so I’m riding the wave as well.
be careful. trump could easily nationalize GLD and SLV………..
AND IT’S GONE
The Fed is in a difficult spot. Lowering rates should be a non-starter but raising them entails psychological risks as well that could actually spur dollar asset sales.
USA, 250 years ago, was founded to be another empire, with the old greek and roman empire, twist. let em vote for the empire. if you believe jefferson and madison and washington DID NOT WANT AN EMPIRE, you are as innocent as an unweaned whelp
I always thought it odd that slaveowners would want to set up a democracy.
“Why is it that we hear the loudest yelps for liberty among the drivers of negroes?” – Samuel Johnson
Jobs ain’t gonna crash. Trumpie is gonna juice up the economy through its eyeballs until the mid-terms. He’s already doing so badly with everything else, so he can’t let the economy slip too.
mein fuhrer Drumpf, could debutize all real amerikans, the maga cult, as ICE officers. no need to get off the couch or put down the meth pipe. our ubermensch cult hero will just pay you to be vigilant and rat out your neighbors maids and your kids friends………by dialing 1 800 FUCK YOU
i meant to type FUCK YOU WETBACK
Fur Sie Carlos, ze end ist near, ja.
i understand the translation, but not your point. sorrry.
He may try but I think the ROI on AI will be so negative it may crash the stock market/economy. The only big users of AI will be the companies replacing workers hence a zero sum game. Plus they will only use AI if it’s free or cheap so ROI will remain negative. In 18/24 months or less the hardware that AI is based on will be obsolete and in 48 months probably worthless. How will the AI companies afford replacement or upgrades? If China gets there first (ASI) our companies will simply use there AI unless the federal govt steps in and stops them, again no ROI for American corporations developing AI. Lots to consider, hard to predict.
Amazon just fired 16,000 people today
UPS just announced it is firing another 30,000
In the little hours of January 28th, 2026, we have printed Gold above $5,300 for the first time in history. $5,306.70 as I restlessly tap on the keys.
The fall of the dollar is getting downright scary.
Trump may cheer the fall of the dollar and its buying power, I do not.
Even with some gold stocks to buffer the fall, this is gonna hurt!
Gold on the Continuous contract just printed $5,314.40…
This keeps me up at night. I wish I had listened to my dad and grandfather and had more physical metal!
Be careful what you wish for!
;-(
frosty. you are one of the good guys on this blog. i took your advice and papa dave’s advice on some mining and energy stocks. i sold paas for fear of our lunatic nero nationalizing or outright stealing metal miners. he needs gold and silver for his ballroom. this is not a lecture, but i can tell you, i’ve lived through 2 great depressions in 2 jurisdictions in my life. with an russian oligarch client(a nice fella really) who controlled 500,000 oil and gas, workers and was in politboro. he explained to me exactly how they HAD to fuck over the workers and the nation in 1998 before they devalued their currency 500%. again. i have been collecting silver since 1965. gold since 1971. my parents and all my uncles and aunts, had lived through the great depression and served in ww2. my grandparents had lived through much worse back in the old empire, i mean country. italia. family in northern italy had great wealth for centuries. all went bust due to one dumb fuck. we call him dirty eddie. a great grandfather. this true story is for one purpose. it’s not too late to own physical. with this crumbling evil empire being crushed on battlefields the past 50 years, and now financially bust, and run by kleptomaniac nihilist oligarchs from peter thiel to the trump and kushners and the list is too extensive. if, the currency goes parabalic, you will not lose too much sleep. though having a shit ton of metals did not make living through the 2 depressions a peaceful experience. the stress of friends, neighbors and strangers is great weight. if we are wrong. no harm, no foul, that means all will be right in the empire with the donald as our ubermensch cult hero. i wish i remembered where i hid all my silver and gold. i sort of remember a boating accident and a lost treasure map, i cannot locate. good luck frosty. you seem like you have a soul . ps, i helped out a ton of people during the depressions. and it all came back to me. a few people just gave me the keys to their houses. peace baby. am i allowed to say that in this evil uniparty empire? or should i say bombs away with genocide don and joe……….
Get a Reagan or trump mask and practice your bank robbing skills, oh yeah you’ll need a wheelbarrow too/s
GOLD IS up ALMOST 200$, $5250 AND NIGHT IS STILL YOUNG!
IRAN here we comes
He cheers because the value of US Debt gets reduced.
=value of US Debt gets reduced.
what??? usa debt is nominal, and debt and servicing is nominal
right now USA pays off 25% all revenues to only serve debt
USA had a Debt when the $ was strong.That the $ when strong is valued higher or equivalent to MORE in other Currencies. When it is weakened it is less.So US Debt is reduced in value.This is one of the ways Nations reduce their Debt in value.
When it is weakened it is less.So US Debt is reduced in value.This is one of the ways Nations reduce their Debt in value.
====
buddy please refrain FROM POSTING GIBBERISH!
============
what value? currency don have inherited value per se. it is paper!
you meant it is currency exchange rate!!!
=====
value comes from purchasing power.!
basically what you can buy for $100, exchange those 100$ in rubles, euro or yen, and again buy same amount of stuff in local currency , and COMPARE !! is it MORE OR LESS??
then you can say currency IS more valuable.
===
again. buddy . obv you have no clue about macro economics / currency rates
by your logic more currency is weaker , it is better!
so HYPERINFLATION LIKE IN ZIMBABWE is even better!
have you ever lived in country w/ hyperinflation?
obv it is wrong!
please , stop embarrassing yourself!!!
In $ terms the value of Debt gets reduced.Say US takes a loan of 100$ from x country.It is debased.Now the 100$ is worth less,in $ terms and the US / UST,deals in $s.The US needs to return less $s..
Say US takes a loan of 100$ from x country.It is debased.Now the 100$ is worth less,in $ terms and the US / UST,deals in $s.The US needs to return less $s..
=====
what value? in what units?
100$ is 100$! it is nominal!
USA borrowed 100$, it must RETURN 100$ + %%%!
YOU MOR11ONIC THOUGHT BASED ON ALREADY DEBUNKED 1 million times THEORY that if there is big inflation/ hyperinflation USA GOV WOULD COLLECT MORE $$$, so in theory it would easier to serve debt!!
====
it is debunked!!!
in reality if that was true, JAPANESE ALREADY WOULD DEVALUE YEN AND PAID OFF 250% DEBT/ GDP!
somehow they did not !
==
reality is, if currency is falling , import is getting more expensive, external money=investment flows dry off, cause what is point to invest in /country w/ hyperinflation ?
do you even know WHAT WIEMAR hyperinflation is ?
======
buddy , what is YOUR FORMAL EDUCATION?
alx
=falling currency
in 2025 USA imported $3.61$ trln! it is more than 10% of gdp!
lets say $$ fall 50% against major currencies : euro//yen/etc
do you even comprehend that in this case USA gdp would fall
5-10% cause nobody could afford IMPORTED stuff!
PRICES/inflation WOULD GROW (=lack of stuff), AND TAX REVENUES WOULD FALL, making harder to serve debt??
it is economics 101. jesus! you are clueless!
alx
Say US has a Debt of $ 100.Now,say the $ is debased to 0.97 of its value. Now US returns this debased 100$ [actually $97 ].So its Debt is reduced.
again
====
YOU MOR11ONIC THOUGHT BASED ON ALREADY DEBUNKED 1 million times THEORY that if there is big inflation/ hyperinflation USA GOV WOULD COLLECT MORE $$$, so in theory it would easier to serve debt!!
====
it is debunked!!!
in reality if that was true, JAPANESE ALREADY WOULD DEVALUE YEN AND PAID OFF 250% DEBT/ GDP!
somehow they did not !
But devaluation has its consequences. Not too much but just enough to reduce Debt and increase Export Revenue.
Japanese had $ 1.5 Trillion in UST Bills till Trump began his intimidation. Hence for them the Debt is NOT that a major issue.
USA debt is $ 38.5 trln!
it will be 45 trln by end of trump term
USa gov collects 5*5.5 trln$ in taxes, serving debt will be 1.5 TRLN IN 2026
2025 deficit was $2.3 trln
USA IS BANKRUPT. IT IS BANANA REPUBLIC ON STEROIDS!
minute USA starts bombing iran, and i expect this in 1-2 weeks
gold will be 6000, and silver 130*150!
basically TRUMP BEING ISR11AEL puppet totally lost this mind!
alx
More importantly Crude will rise as the Strait Of Hormuz may be closed.
It’s funny as hell watching Russiagate cultists keep pushing their conspiracy theory, in spite of the overwhelming evidence that there is nothing there. Hell, even Strzok more or less admitted this in a text to his lover, Lisa Page.And Strzok was in a position to know.
But the cultists cannot let it go, cannot admit that they were duped, and by many of the same crew who sold us the “Iraq is chock a block with WMDs”, the “Assad gassed his own people ZOMG!” and the “Libyan rape rooms” lies.
If that were not comedy enough, the *really* funny and ironic part is that if they want evidence that Trump is working on behalf of foreign governments, there is loads of evidence out there in plain sight. Trump doesn’t even try to hide it. The cultists need look no further than Israel and Saudi Arabia.
It’s as if Melania were trying to catch Donald cheating. To prove her theory, she comes up with elaborate and ridiculous plots involving multiple body doubles, fake credit card receipts issued by a non-existent bank and a supposed secret Twitter code that Donald uses to communicate with his alleged lover. Also, to make it work, not only does everyone from Barron to J.D. Vance’s dog know about this scheme, they have to be participating in it. And of course, Melania has to ignore the vast pile of contrary evidence.
Melania works herself into a lather “connecting the dots” concocting a conspiracy theory that would put the 1961 John Birch Society to shame, and ignoring all the evidence that obliterates her theory. Meanwhile, if she wants to see Donald being unfaithful, Mistress Bibi and Mistress Salman have the chains and whips and bondage gear on full display as they make Donald perform the most obscene and humiliating sexual services, all right out there on the kitchen table in front of Melania and everyone else, and with video footage to boot.
Of course, the rest of Team D and Team R would very much like to take Trump’s place as Mistress Salman’s slaveboi, so they pretend not to notice any of that.
The Gold and Silver Boom is all speculative retail. Their is so much cooler stuff to buy than coin. At these prices you would have to hold for a long time to make out. Those who bought earlier are now in broken clock territory being right twice a lifetime.
#The Gold and Silver Boom is all speculative retail.
mo11ron!
USA debt is $ 38.5 trln!
it will be 45 trln by end of trump term
USa gov collects 5*5.5 trln$ in taxes, serving debt will cost 1.5 TRLN IN 2026
2025 deficit was $2.3 trln
USA IS BANKRUPT. IT IS BANANA REPUBLIC ON STEROIDS!
so get lost!
alx
btw
do you even LIVE IN USA ???
All those conditions have been with us for decades. The numbers are just higher because of devalued currency. Cash out on anything and see what it buys you……not much. Gold and Silver can only go as high as people are willing to pay for it on the margin.
The rise of Gold and Silver [ other commodities also ] ,is due to weakening $ which in turn is due to US’ tariffs,sanctions,Debt and fiscal Deficit etc.Cengral banks trust Gold more than $ now.
DXY or Dollar Index at $96 and well above where it was during Obama’s two terms.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY
DXY IS A FOOLS INDEX
Doesn’t it make you proud to be an American to hear this Man-can-get-pregnant LGBTQ maven explain that a lower dollar means the dollar remains the reserve currency of the world? You have all gone mad. You are all worshipping mere computer parts (semiconductors) because they waste electricity and spy on and censor everything we say. The problem is not just Trump or Biden. The problem is all Democrats and all Republicans. The problem is YOU. Now go buy some Nvidia, Coreweave, Tesla, and Carvana. What else are you good for? Sure, if you’re young and have too many limbs, you could go around the world and butcher human beings by the millions, too.
Technology has helped as far as productivity and innovation. Just look at how agriculture and food processing has benefitted from it. The computer industry including internet has been an overall plus for society.
Not anymore. Now computers only disable people’s brains and their ability to think for themselves and produce new knowledge. Everybody’s using chat bots to write everything. In case of text, it all looks the same and ultimately is inaccurate and offensive. Using chat bots to write theses is fraud. Data centers are a blight on the environment. They use as much electricity as a city, raise electricity prices and pollute the water. We have all the computers we need to do our work. Data centers’ main purpose is to SPY and censor. I have noticed that ALL so-called social media (Facebook, YouTube, comment sections at ALL websites) are CENSORING and shadowbanning EVERYTHING I write. And they are very deceptive about this gratuitous censorship: I can see what I wrote but in reality no one else can. I checked through a friend’s account(s). The public can’t see any of my posts that YT allows me to see, to make me believe that it’s not censoring me.
I would reply to this but I can’t see what you wrote….
Binoculars? Telescope?
it is called progress. nothing will be 100% good or bad!
if you don’t like it, there is always Amish way
join!
AI is just COMPUTERS! Nothing NEW nor REVOLUTIONARY as Wall Street claims, in order to sell you the BIGGEST FRAUD IN HISTORY based on fake earnings derived from circular financing and unsustainable debt! AI doesn’t make new discoveries. With COMPUTERS it’s always garbage in, garbage out. We’ve had “AI” automated robotic production lines for HALF A CENTURY! All that AI does is: create fake videos; fake news; fake information that must be corrected by humans resulting in material losses to businesses and society; facilitate fraud; horrible customer service; censor facts and free speech; oppress us with ubiquitous surveillance; waste water and electricity; and pollute the environment with ugly data centers that raise your electricity bill.
The one SIGNIFICANT result of AI is that it gives the bankers and big corporations a contrived excuse to fire YOU based on fraudulent claims of productivity as per above! Higher AI Tech stock prices are also used to tout surveillance and censorship as something more palatable and positive because it makes you money.
whatever man!
obv you are way smarter than 100x millions of investors in msft, nvidia, amazon , and google. creating 1+ trln companies
simple question, what a fu11k are you doing here, posting here?
Same thing you’re doing.
i was using AI in the 1980s with NASA lab as a young fella in grad school and internship. remote sensing algorithms to search for whales and oil and marijuana fields……….
AI = computers
Nothing new nor wonderful
the amish teenage boys keep cadillacs in the woods. first hand knowledge of this. boys will be boys. but i get your point. half my life i have not needed an auto. nor computer.
The second half you’re gonna be a viagra fiend.
It is true that Amish youth, typically starting around age 16, enter a period known as “Rumspringa” (running around), allowing them to experience the outside “English” world before choosing to commit to the Amish church. It is not a fixed, one-year period, but rather an indeterminate time lasting until they decide to be baptized or leave. Seeing Amish kids in corvettes in Lancaster, PA is not that unusual.
That may be the most stress free lifestyle in the US. Although thinking about it is it any less stressful if your horse dies or your car does.
So the world is shifting confidence from dollars/currency, fiat, to gold, hard metal. Seems like we’re getting back to the way things should have been all along.
The dropping dollar will help sell/export more oil and nat gas?
And REDUCE the VALUE of US Debt
USD’s value falling at a faster rate than Treasuries pay in interest?
It doesn’t take a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows.
Got mining stocks?
Selling Mining Stocks right now is like jumping out of the lifeboat and swimming back to the Titanic!
as long as the mines don’t get nationalized by jurisdiction(trump in a hearbeat) they have mines. actual gold and silver much safer. in troubled times. good luck buddy.
AEM is in stable jurisdictions. It is my favorite gold miner by a large margin…
PAAS has more risk for sure, It and SWE are my favorite silver plays.
GLTA!
I am ready to jump out. I bought the mining hype in 2008-2010.
I have been holding them ever since. Even though they are up 500% the past year, I am still down 60% since 2010.
Mining is one of the few companies where as the assets they produce goes up in price over time makes their stock price go down over time.
I was a gold (and other related mining) stock analyst in Toronto during those years. THESE times are essentially NOTHING like those years from a macro-economic sense. (Which is a lot, certainly then and very much now, of what gold investing is.)
OUCH! I can’t even imagine that!
…so, you didn’t dollar-cost average by buying more shares ten years ago when prices were a fraction of what they are today…?
I guess Trump’s master plan is to unleash an army of robots to crank out exports now that the dollar’s tanking. Since MAGA folks don’t want immigrants doing the work, I suppose the Roomba Industrial Corps will have to pick up the slack.
Ai is gonna kill a bunch of white collar jobs. Everyone is gonna get kicked down a notch employment wise. Trump is making room on the bottom rung of the employment ladder.
I worked for a contractor many years ago in an outdoor town. He was telling me how good it was to have an over educated staff in hiking boots building homes. So as a contractor would you hire a down on his luck white collar guy or a guy with experience who does a bit of meth on the weekends.
The present dollar weakness can only be explained by declining trust in the US as an investment location. Trump has been working hard to make sure over the last 12 months that the US can no longer be trusted any longer in any way or shape, As the Bible says: you reap what you sow.
I have a different read. This is the “right” market outcome. We have too large of a trade deficit and the dollar is “artificially” high because China and other exporters over invest in US financial assets. If this plays out, there will be unfavorable impacts (higher yields, lower stock multiples, higher real import costs) but also favorable impacts (export competitiveness and hopefully higher real wages). I suppose im biased because I’m talking my book, but, again, I think this is the “right” thing.
So, Doctor, what part does a $2T annual deficit play in your prognosis? Or the current $1T annual interest payment, a bigger amount than the military budget?
You didn’t address that.
Well, I kinda did address that. Given our fiscal deficit is large, we SHOULD have higher yields and given that our trade deficit is large, we SHOULD have a lower currency.
I’m no macroeconomist, I only play one in comments sections, but that’s my dime store understanding of how these forces would typically reach equilibrium.
A weak $ is favorable to Emerging markets.Trump does not like that either, but can’t help.
He’ll be long gone before it happens, but I hope the Trump Boys get rugged.
Gold is a pet rock, it does not change in value or said another way, it holds it value. What is changing is the dollar, it is not storing value, it is losing value rapidly. The dollar index chart above has nothing to do with the value of a dollar, it just compares the dollar to several other fiat currencies all of which are being printed into oblivion, all of which are losing value fast. A better measure of the dollar’s value is to compare it to what used to back it, namely gold.
the gold standard has always been around for the past 5000 years. the only question is if some scam king or queen or empire doesn’t acknowledge it. amerikans have for the most part been dumbed down by design, since FDR made it illegal to own it when she was worth 20 USD to an ounce of gold.
People will tell you different, but we all have the same favorite color:
Shiny
Gold is not a rock; it is classified as a mineral and a chemical element (symbol Au, atomic number 79).
While gold is often found within rocks—such as in quartz veins, hydrothermal deposits, or placer deposits—it is not itself a rock. 😉
Rocks are aggregates of one or more minerals, whereas gold exists in a pure, native form with a defined chemical composition and crystalline structure. It is a native metal, meaning it occurs naturally in its elemental state, often as nuggets, flakes, or fine grains.
Oh, man. You’re going for the “Biggest Nerd On the Blog” award.
Can we get this guy a “Mishelin Star”? Anyone?
I know gold is a mineral, Gold is a pet rock is a paraphrase from Warren Buffet that I thought readers would generally recognize.
=mpare it to what used to back it, namely gold.
well, better to compare what you could buy using 100$ 10 20 or 50 years ago
it is called erosion of purchasing power!
===
YOU CAN’T COMPARE BUYING GOLD NOW AND 50 YEARS AGO , cause price of gold was suppressed in USA until Nixon in 1971 or around!
if not that gold would be much higher much earlier
Gold $5,167 & Silver $112 – – Platinum $2,656.
128 usd for silver in your hand here. more in china……..https://www.apmex.com/product/23331/1-oz-american-silver-eagle-coin-bu-random-year
5383, usd for gold in your hand. https://www.apmex.com/product/1/1-oz-american-gold-eagle-coin-bu-random-year
iran bombing is coming
The Fed doesn’t have to lower rates to support jobs because a weak dollar should help US exports. But if the dollar falls too much, the Fed will have to raise rates to stabilize it.
bingo.
usa does not produce much, outside agr. / energy products
I’ve been buying gold since 2010 and I’d argue gold and silver are in bubble territory. Smaller central banks like in Poland are over paying at these prices. Major central banks are now purchasing less than last year. Retail frenzy has taken over esp silver. Just look at the chart.
Trump is a big mouth, not a nice man but Mish is over-reacting/over-excitable about him. Markets are no longer responding due to Tariff threats due to Taco, and his power will be curtained by mid-term elections. Inflation still stickey so Trump will quieten down on rate cuts too.
A friend has just inherited over a million dollars, he is in his 60s and still renting. Rather than buying a place to live, he has sunk it all into mining stocks and bullion.
The contrarian bet is to sell gold and silver, the latter could more than halve in the next six months.
You surprise me Mish, I thought you were a contrarian who prided himself on identifying bubbles! I’ve read your blog for many years but it now seems to be fixated on Trump to the point that you aren’t recognising a bubble in PMs when it’s staring you in the face.
Well we’ll just bookmark this link/post and check back in on six months. You will be vindicated or you will be ridiculed. That’s how we have fun here.
The July 17 $250 put strikes on GLD are selling for $0.40, low open interest, lots of action at $300, $345 and $375 though.
See you July 27th!
the vast majority of best traders and investors don’t try and predict the future. trend FOLLOWING is the easy path for most of us mortals with no inside information or babe ruth or wayne gretsky or kareem, skills. following the trends instead of predicting them like some wizard of oz. imho.
Investors follow Fundamentals. Ted Butler and Bill Bonner were recommending Silver and Gold from way back, the beginning of this Century.They were appalled by the suppression of the prices of these two to keep $ strong and were very pessimistic of the Global Finance in the long term.
Pistols at dawn too? Sounds like fun.
I’d recommend the book The Power of Gold. It shows how volatile gold really is over the last 5000 years.
It concludes that many have lost their shirts having fallen in love with it and it is indeed beautiful.
PMs are the most overcrowded trade out there so if we are doing predictions I’d say by that by July 27th gold will be 4500 and silver 55! And my friend will regret not buying the house.
“Well we’ll just bookmark this link/post and check back in on six months. You will be vindicated or you will be ridiculed. That’s how we have fun here.”
Much more fun that ad hominem attacks, at least for the mature people and bots here.
Where to place one’s bet is an interesting question. The effect of silver halving in 6 months would imply stability/strength in what its value is measured in (on this forum that would be USD). That seems like an unwise bet, but if one is just talking paper and not worried about a premium for physical, perhaps it’s a reasonable possibility. It isn’t a bet I’ll take, but I’m curious enough to bookmark this for reference this summer.
Could more than double too. Could stay the same.
I think we have an airtight prediction now.
call 100 people tell them gold is going up. call 100 it is going down. call the 100 back where you looked good. do it again 50/50. keep it going. you have a cult following for your long con. if you have never been scammed by great hucksters, you ain’t played on the field.
I am diversified into rusty mason jars containing smokes, ammo, liquor, gold, and porn buried around the county, GPS coordinates meticulously categorized and catalogued, encrypted on the block chain for durability and anonymous trades.
Figured it was time to grow up and get serious about Investing in the 21st Century.
What will be the state of the CME, COMEX and LBMA be with regard to their paper gold and silver?
Agree! In the late 1970s gold gained 200%. Took almost 30 years to the next new high. 2000 to 2011 gold again gained 200% then stagnated for the next 10 years. If gold peaks just shy of $6000 that will be another 200% gain from the 2015 lows. One can say this time is different but it rarely is.
I have no idea where gold is going.
But it is very reasonable to take some profits off the table.
Let the profits run. Keep trailing stops.
Bert Dohmen predicted a 20 year bear market in gold in 1980 just before the crash, to be followed by a 31 year bull market. He’s been right so far….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVSj1zQKNWo
And put the $, or what ever you traded it for, in what safer place?
Your type never says that about stocks with P/Es in triple digits with earnings based on fraud (circular accounting used by ALL Tech companies). And you never explain what your claim of a gold bubble is based on? Is it because you can’t eat gold?
=gue gold and silver are in bubble territory.
no you have not been buying
=====
and NOT IT IS NOT BUBBLE
USa debt is accident waiting to happen!
basically you have no idea about macro in USA!
A friend has just inherited over a million dollars, he is in his 60s and still renting. Rather than buying a place to live, he has sunk it all into mining stocks and bullion.
The contrarian bet is to sell gold and silver, the latter could more than halve in the next six months.
====
nice fake story bro.
it is macro/current events blog, IT IS not amateurs sci fi stories blog
get lost!
It’s not a fake story. It wouldn’t be a very impressive one to make up anyhow.
I’m making a point about the price of gold which Mish has extensively covered down the years so fully acceptable on this blog. No need to be rude!
<<Major central banks are now purchasing less than last year.>>
But what does this mean? That they’re buying less because it’s more expensive, or that they are close to reaching their goals in quantity?
In either case, central banks will not want gold to lose value, after all the quantities they have bought. They have a stronger incentive than before to keep its value high, because they own so much.
Or to lower the price temporarily to purchase more quantities from panicked retail investors.
I definitely see the case of a bubble, but I also see the case of strong incentives to keep the price relatively high. Maybe gold is the new fiat.
I have been in Gold and Silver from 2004 and have read articles on Silvers by Ted Butler et al.Gold by Bonner et al.They were all saying that the USFR was suppressing the prices of these two to keep the $ strong and to keep the flow into UST Bills high..Trump with his tariffs caused supply side shortage .Thus helped the PMs to realize their true values.Besides data Centers want electric Power SOON /at short notice, .Solar cells and Batteries are the only solution for this.Besides Trump is too keen on wars. .
Just a question, when a plunge is just a weakening of currency? I m meaning when the plunge is high enough so hyperinflation starts (cycle of peoples selling the currency for avoiding being hit by the plunge and so on)
no chance of hyperinflation in the US
Yes of course. But I was asking the question nevertheless
=hyperinflation starts (cycle of
hyperinflation happens WHEN SOCIETY COLLAPSES (USSR SAY HELLO),
OR war happens , and productive sh1it is blown off!
USA is not there yet.
but eventually there will be civil war in USA! it is obv for any outsider.
With high tariffs and a falling $ Hyper-Inflation in US is POSSIBLE.
The way hyperinflation is breathlessly invoked in the USA, it’s clear almost nobody who uses the term understands it.
This chart is a good primer: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#/media/File:Time_BsF_would_take_to_lose_90_percent_of_its_value.png
It is time to differentiat between inflation and devaluation risks.
Which one can be called Hyper-Inflation.
Bond market controls interest rates, not the Fed. Can’t fool or pressure the bond market.
The bond market keeps the score https://archive.ph/FIvDs January 22nd, 2026
I agree with the post most generally but note the strong dollar 2021 into 2024, rising most as inflation raged the most in decades. Supply and demand, fiscal stimulus…lots of things impact inflation. Sadly, as supply and demand shocks have been digested and normalized and fiscal stimulus has waned…now the weak dollar takes the inflation baton to carry inflation forward, as it always benefits those with access to first money or asset holders. The reality is that we have large numbers of asset holders now that bitch about price inflation but LOVE the asset inflation and can absorb price inflation as their 401k statements keep telling them they are the wealthiest in history.
Americans can’t decide if they are unhappy with price inflation or with the political climate but they are actually complicit and content to let it continue as all they, like this president and the past presidents, love the wealth effects. It’s sorta weird–unhappy as consumers, wondering if the other shoe is gonna drop, hoping prices decline but not THEIR prices (real estate, stocks).
you speak the truth. gold was a lifeline, to me… when the panic of 2007 to 2011 took r/e prices down in my hood in phoenix AZ in vicinity of 75% and more depending on the locations. the major moves in silver and gold will come after stock and r/e panics, is my guess. as i’ve seen this in phoenix and in russia in the 1990s.
Very true. I listen to friends & family complain about the price of coffee, while their investment & r/e values climb skyward.
I think it’s an old Puritan social practice – “poor-mouthing” and hand-wringing.
Trump is a moron, but unfortunately he was the least bad moron that we had to choose from.
How bad would Kaisich had been in 2016? Just to throw a name out there.
I voted for Kasich in the primaries then. By the time the calendar got to my state, it was him, Cruz, or Trump.
Went 3rd party in the general.
Apologies to the liberals here, but both major parties have been failing us for at least a decade or longer at the top of the ticket.
No apology needed, you show me a good politician and I will know you are a sucker and a liar.
still think there will be one knight in white clothes on horse who will climb down from hill and save USA?
jesus!
Reading comprehension issue with you? Ride Secretariat yourself, but don’t fall off.
You are the moron. If you had a pen you could have chosen ANYONE, just write in the name.
Let’s chose Vance!
Price discovery in gold and silver is breaking down. It may have something to do with the exchanges possibly defaulting on their paper contract games.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYMUn7zDE-c
Who knows where we go from here…..strange days. my spidey sense is tingling, things are going to get intense.
As the physical metal moves east, LBMA is going to have a hard time. I read JPM (HUGE silver owner) moved its’ desk to China too.
Things are going to get really interesting.
=As the physical metal moves east,
typical bs. from mass media!
russia and china are in top 5 gold producers in world!
only sizeable buyer is india in east!
Is it true that Germany is demanding its gold back from supposed storage in the US?
All your gold are belong to us!
If your gold were under the watch of a clown administration, would you want it back? How do you like your Trump now? There’s still 1089 days left for the clown to impress you.
Yes, Germans were stupid to have the US hold their gold. That was true well before Trump was first elected. The question is: even if the Americans are willing to give the gold back, will they be able to produce it?
not really. not after the 2 world wars and USSR that took half of germany for themselves. think about it. took tour of NYFED of basement gold vault sitting on granite bedrock, long ago. most post war nations brought their gold there for safety. they have garage sized separate vaults for each naiton. no labels but could see all the gold through the gates. men with steel boots moving the bars from one country to another to pay off debts. street level scene at NYFED forever had armored trucks unloading the gold onto the sidewalk. it would be a bitch to pick up those huge bars of gold and run off. all the NYFED police are sharpshooters and have more police than most small cities have. who knows where we are heading but i would assume the dow/gold ratio is heading towards 1 or so………
Tell the Germans it was in the Lusitania.
Sentient, I think we read the same sources. I read that and did a little poking. The only thing I could find was the Bundesbank pulling gold back in 2017. Whether there is a new round of it I don’t know. But it seems to at least be partially old news.
=correction
PAPER PRICE discovery..
you won’t buy phys. gold 10pct over current price
Further evidence of an increased state of economic ignorance, derangement and outright stupidity.
Can you say “Debt Death Spiral” three times fast? Whoever downvoted you is part of the Cult of Personality because you are spot on. Debasing the currency at this point will only accelerate de-dollarization globally.
Debase Currency -> Rejection of T-bond yields -> Poor Auction Outcomes -> FED Monetizes Treasury Debt to Cover the Difference -> Debase Currency…. wash, rinse, repeat.
Debasing the currency also debases the demographics. The two go hand-in-hand, debt death spiral = demographic death spiral.
Math checks out. Class is over, time for the failed state remediation program.
Trump just wants cheaper RE loan repayment, Daddy Vladdy has Pet Trump on a short leash.