The Supreme Court did not discuss refunds. They will be up to the Trade Court. Messy?
Earlier today I noted Supreme Court Strikes Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs In 6-3 Vote
Since the Supreme Court made no ruling on refunds it will be up to the US Court of International Trade to decide when and how.
Expect refunds. That was also my prediction. Most didn’t, even those who expected the courts to smack this.
Tariff Ruling Kicks Off Messy Fight Over $170 Billion in Refunds
Bloomberg reports Tariff Ruling Kicks Off Messy Fight Over $170 Billion in Refunds
“The court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers,” Kavanaugh wrote. “But that process is likely to be a ‘mess,’ as was acknowledged” during the court’s oral arguments in November.
US Customs and Border Protection so far has collected an estimated $170 billion in tariffs imposed by Trump using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the law at the center of the case, as of Dec. 14.
The court ruled that using IEEPA to impose tariffs wasn’t lawful, but the justices didn’t address whether importers are entitled to refunds, leaving it to a lower court to sort out those issues. The litigation will return to the US Court of International Trade for the next round of legal wrangling.
While waiting for the justices to rule, more than 1,500 companies have filed their own tariff lawsuits in the trade court to put themselves in line for tariff refunds, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
The trade court in recent months has pressed the Justice Department for at least a hint of how it plans to handle the refund issue if it lost at the Supreme Court.
In written submissions, government lawyers have said that the administration won’t fight the court’s authority to order officials to recalculate tariffs, but left open the possibility that it might try to limit which importers are eligible.
The US trade court has experience managing a mass refund process. After the Supreme Court struck down a harbor maintenance tax on exporters in 1998, the court created a claims process. That fight involved approximately 4,000 cases and $750 million in taxes paid, according to court records and reports at the time.
The scale of Trump’s contested tariffs is far larger — by the end of 2025, the government told the trade court that more than 300,000 importers had paid the contested tariffs so far.
“For importers, it means that there is a refund potential,” said Ted Murphy, a partner at Sidley Austin LLP. What the refund process will be and how long it will take “is a big issue,” he added.
Some industries stand to receive a bigger share of the duties collected under IEEPA as of Dec. 14. According to an analysis from Bloomberg Economics, textiles, toys and food and beverages industries top the list of industries that import final goods, including wholesalers, retailers and manufacturers with factories outside the US. For those that import tariff-hit components needed to manufacture goods domestically, it’s machinery, electronics and autos that stand out.
“The construction industry—from its purchases of electrical equipment and appliances, possibly to be fitted in new buildings—also appears particularly exposed,” BE’s Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Chris Kennedy wrote.
Firm size will also play a role in who sees the biggest refunds, they said. Because any refunds would go to the importers-of-record who paid the duties, larger companies that import goods themselves are more likely to receive refunds directly than smaller firms that buy from wholesale importers.
Customs brokers and lawyers are advising companies that the administration could make it difficult to obtain refunds, potentially requiring proof that they didn’t pass the cost on, or demanding extensive paperwork for each shipment. For now, importers are being told to at least have their import records in order for a refund push, even if they don’t know what it’ll look like yet.
CBP recently announced that starting Feb. 6, the US Treasury would no longer issue CBP refunds via paper check, instead moving to electronic payments.
It Doesn’t Have to Be Messy
Following Oral Arguments, I commented … ” I appreciate the logic of Gorsuch who stated that a refund is the traditional remedy for unlawfully imposed fees.“
But why should it be messy?
Trump’s Claim
Truth Social Link: The actual numbers that we would have to pay back if, for any reason, the Supreme Court were to rule against the United States of America on Tariffs, would be many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and that doesn’t include the amount of “payback” that Countries and Companies would require for the Investments they are making on building Plants, Factories, and Equipment, for the purpose of being able to avoid the payment of Tariffs. When these Investments are added, we are talking about Trillions of Dollars! It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay. Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question. It may not be possible but, if it were, it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay. Remember, when America shines brightly, the World shines brightly. In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!
PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
On January 13, I asked If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, How Big Might Refunds Be?
We have new numbers today, but let’s review my other comments.
Big Set of Trumpian Lies
The cumulative IEEPA total to date is 133.5 billion. [Bloomberg now estimates $170 billion]
Trump’s claim “that doesn’t include the amount of “payback” that Countries and Companies would require for the Investments they are making on building Plants, Factories, and Equipment” is nonsense.
Those are wildly exaggerated unsecured pledges and mostly rebutted by source. Importantly, those are private investments, not US Treasury receipts.
Nothing was collected and there would be zero rebates.
Trump’s statement “it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay,” is a blatant lie.
The idea we are collecting tariffs and don’t even know how much is laughable. The numbers on my charts are published administration numbers.
Collected Money
On the assumption that customs knows who it collected money from, the process is simple. Rebate the IEEPA tariff money collected. The administration has details for every category, updated daily.
The administration’s bragging by category proves they are lying about the difficulty of rebates.
Of course, one cannot possibly underestimate the potential stupidity of this administration.
If the Administration insisted, it could do things on a receipt-by-receipt basis. Then the administration would have mountains of paperwork to deal with.
Simple Process
- The Administration know IEEPA tariff money collected.
- The Administration knows who it collected money from.
- The Administration refunds the money it collected.
I truly fail to understand how this can be messy, unless the administration purposely tries to make it messy. But even then, the Trade Court should set the process.
It’s amusing that the administration now ponders how to rebate end customers. Wasn’t the administration’s premise that foreign companies paid the tariffs and companies would not pass on increases?
Regardless, there is no process to rebate end consumers and unless companies announce sales to make up for it, nothing can be done.
Comments of the Day
“It’s hard to imagine a ruling that cuts more deeply to the heart of Trump’s identity in public life — he has linked his presidency to the ability to use tariffs as a deal-making cudgel and bend other global powers to his will.”
“What should concern all of us is three court justices were willing to sign onto giving Trump a power the constitution says he doesn’t have.“
A Word About Lutnick
Trump’s Prediction Pre-Decision
“Our economy will go to hell”.
Whole Country Would be Bankrupt
Trump: “Everybody would be bankrupt. The whole country would be bankrupt.”
Thanks. I’ll make a couple of notes.
Amusing Trump Rants
Huge Decision
“He started ranting about the decision, not only calling it a disgrace, but also attacking the courts at one point, saying: ‘these f*cking courts’”
“Not only is so much of his economic agenda based on these tariffs. So much of his foreign policy is based on these tariffs. He used tariffs as leverage in almost every meeting around the world.”
Note: In light of the ruling, Trump says “Everybody is bankrupt.”
“The whole county is bankrupt.”
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February 20, 2026: GDP Slows Dramatically in 2025 Q4 to 1.4 Percent, Big Disappointment
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February 20, 2026: Supreme Court Strikes Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs In 6-3 Vote (I Told You So)
Forgive me for bragging, but I got every justice correct.
It’s a great day for America. The Supreme Court made a beautiful ruling. We have constitutional separation of duties.
Unfortunately, I hear that as a result we are now all bankrupt. Damn!
“ actual numbers that we would have to pay back if, for any reason, the Supreme Court were to rule against the United States of America on Tariffs…. it would be a complete mess”
Yup. This typically happens when poor decisions are made with zero planning. Most people figure this out early in life.
Businesses that kept tariff records should be refunded as a tax prepayment spread out over 4 fiscal quarters. If credits exceed tax liability for a quarter, then the company gets a refund check from the IRS.
“refunds” ain’t gonna happen anytime soon…will be tied up in courts for years…lol
if i already spent my refund, can i sue ? class action ?
I tracked my costs and under Biden living in CA they went up $2,074 a month! I could not retire! They have dropped some under Trump about 714 a month so far! I am moving out of this state so I can retire in Tenn.! Cost 43% less than CA!
Great! Also, not very credible to me unless your cost of living is very, very high and these numbers represent only a very small percentage of them.
To be clear, the refunds will only go to the company or person that paid the original tariff.
That said, a few savvy retailers should have “Tariff refund Sales”. Where they reduce unwanted inventory by discounting it with the tariff reduction as part of the discount.
But consumers never paid the tarrifs!
I propose that if u voted for the orange loser, you are ineligible for a refund
Commenting on this ridiculousness in a responsible and purposeful way (which i would love to do) is impossible because it is so ridiculous and asinine. Where are the adults in this country?
What a shitshow, including the SCOTUS. They should have smacked him down harder and those 3 dissenters should get their heads out of the orange man’s ass
One difference is now most Americans know that they pay the tariffs and Trump is lying right to their face
It is the Trump tax.
Highly inflationary situation coming up!
I normally don’t read zerohedge but someone sent me an article and told me to read the comments. I was surprised so many people in the comments were trashing Trump on a pro-Trump, right wing rag. That tells you Trump is utterly finished.
I focus entirely on Zero Hedge ECON articles. The other shit is like reading the ENQUIRER.
It’s not just there, it’s the same all over on all but a few very Trumpista outlets.
I’m very confused by this, are only importers getting the refunds? Is that going to be a big windfall for them? I paid tariffs on steel last year, but it’s complicated. Somebody imported steel, somebody fabricated the steel, then some distributed the steel, then I bought and sold it inside my construction projects to a customer. Does it all go back to a final customer of some sort?
It should go to the final customer if you passed on the tariff (vs eating it) but no one knows until the courts rule. They should rule for people like you or final consumers if they have receipts. Otherwise it’s a massive money scam in the hundreds of billions.
per the oracle (chat gpt):
I wouldn’t be spending those tariff rebates just yet. After all, taco doesn’t govern by the rules and will likely find a backdoor method to get his way as he is pouting more than ever.
He will make another chaotic declaration that doubles down on the confusion
The bond market will see some interesting times as the tariff money has already been spent. Therefore the printing press will get turned back on so POTUS can grudgingly pay the tariffs plus interest.
Trumps new cheesy 10% workaround today will backfire as well.
Who does this Trump asshole work for?
<
He works for himself of course as you well know.
Would not be shocked in the least if he gets a cut of Lutnicks money from buying tariffs at pennies on the dollar. Easiest way is to buy some of his Crypto, perfectly legal way to funnel back ‘10% to the big guy’.
I imagine by the time he leaves office in 3 more years that he will have increased his personal fortune 5 to 10x making him the most successful president ever in terms of increasing net worth.
All true ~ Painful for America to have an economically illiterate, convicted felon at the helm of our nation.
Epstein files in three unreacted form please?
Stop protecting the perpetrators!
LBJ was probably the weathiest man in office in past century. he was smart and kept his wealth out of his personal name. his benefactors were the founders of big media, and original haliburton…….oil and gas billionaires……
Yeah, he was a straight up crook as well that was headed for legal troubles when JFK was assassinated.
I guess this means we won’t be getting our $2000 tariff rebates?
All we get now is a portrait of Dear Leader to hang in our hovels.
For $20 extra you can get the gold spray painted framed version!
i drew and painted my own Donald cartoons and paintings in my classes in 2015 to 2017, just for LOL. one has putin pushing donald on a swing like a toddler, with pence on leash like a puppy dog………the college aged gals in my class, roared with LOL at my crude art work.
I am afraid not . The importers who paid the tariffs get the refund. I guess that means the consumer never did pay the tariff
it depends. If you are a billionaire you will probably still get it. If you could actually use some financial support, you certainly will not.
Trump Orders New 10 Percent ‘Global Tariff’ After Supreme Court’s RebukeThe new tariff will be implemented under a 1974 law that gives the president authority to impose tariffs for up to 150 days
https://reason.com/2026/02/20/trump-orders-new-10-percent-global-tariff-after-supreme-courts-rebuke/
Can’t wait until the state of the union speech. I’ll bet he gets booed by a few republicans – finally.
His rant will be epic and unhinged!
should be better than the super duper bowl, i did not watch.
Kavanaugh’s dissent included saying that the tariffs should be legal because it’s going to be complicated to return the money. Lifetime appointment LMFAO
Doesn’t seem like he quite gets this whole “Constitution” thing!
where is my 500 doge refund ck and my 1000+ tariff refund ck???
Looks like Governor Trump will have to get his check book out and start issuing lots of big beautiful refunds. Wonder how Leavitt will spin this crock of excrement.
“I truly fail to understand how this can be messy”
Some of the businesses that paid tariffs had to close their doors. For many of these businesses, there will be no mechanism to reimburse them, since they no longer exist. It’s a breeding ground for fraud. I’m guessing well over 10000 businesses fall into this category.
Off topic but Claude AI is now embedding cybersecurity tools into it’s platform/tools, the whole software security industry is tanking right now.
Bug down 5%
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BUG/
https://invezz.com/news/2026/02/20/crowdstrike-okta-lead-cyber-selloff-after-anthropics-claude-update/
His cheese done slid off his cracker. Time for him to go! This cretin has failed in every way possible as president.
Well of course, he prefers them straight out the womb. Cream cheese off the cracker indeed.
Kudos to MISH. I’m just glad I didn’t buy anything during 2025 except food and toilet paper.
No deodorant or toothpaste? I guess you drink alone. 🙂
So this is a boondoggle for corporates who will get refunds but the consumers who paid most of them? Zilch
Customs only has records of who paid the tariff money directly to Customs. If you didn’t send tariiff money to Customs, you aren’t eligible for a refund. Assuming the companies get their refund, it’s up to them what to do with them.
i believe the customs brokers actually pay
And corporate profits at record highs will go even higher. Executive salaries will go to the moon. Stupid consumers should only buy what they have to and tell the corporates screw you!
Don’t forget the guys like Lutnick who bought for pennies on the dollar.
What the court should do is only pay out claims to affected parties. Since importers are middle men they’d get squat (and so would Lutnick). Consumers could apply directly via receipts similar to how you file a tax return.
That’s the proper way to do it to prevent the wrong people pocketing money.
Mish Mike Shedlock u were right and enjoy the victory lap and the regime of liars caused billions of dollars of damages to our economy with illegal tariffs but lutnick the scheming secretary of commerce and his sons are still scamming $ off of this
A part of me thinks this was all part of the plan.
They knew the tariffs wouldn’t survive court scrutiny so they bought up refunds at pennies on the dollar to make fat profits.
Expect Trump to get his cut though his crypto coins. Direct payment would be big no-no but its perfectly legal for Lutnick to buy a couple billion worth of Trump/Melania coin as ‘10% to the big guy’ cut.
Why was this decision not unamious if the law was so clear? There seems to be plenty of wiggle room for the President to pick and choose the rules the tariffs laws and use them retroactively just like they have done with other tax credits in the past. We have come to a point where the american worker is subject to getting outcompeted by slave labor, unfair trade practices and government subsidies and there is no one that will stand up for them. They should call this the middle class death ruling. 6 people on the high court are globalist not Americans.
“Dow is at 50,000!”
First clue, Clarence Thomas has been openly accepting bribes for decades now
I would be completely unsurprised to discover his name in the suppressed Epstein documents.
Clarence Thomas was Jeffrey Epstein before Jeffrey Epstein. He’s OG.
He rocks a Free Candy sign on his free motor home?
Trump was not trying to save American workers with tariffs, he was trying to save his 2017 tax cuts. Nothing Trump does is altruistic.
lol! You get more desperate and pathetic with each Trumpstien disgrace.
Stay gold, PiggyBoy. Stay gold.
I have to hand it to him. I really didn’t think that fucking cunt could bankrupt America within one year. But then again, how do you go bankrupt running a fucking casino?
Beyond disgusted.
I’m sure Trump will likely appeal the Supreme Court’s decision to the Trump Board of Peace-the highest authority on the Planet. Likely on the advice and legal opinion of the most esteemed expert on such matters–Attorney general Pam Bondi, in collusion with Pete Hegseth.
I guess that most of Americans were happy when SCOTUS struck down reciprocal tariffs. Putting in place Section 122 10% tariff – what does it mean for GOP? November rain is coming to my mind, rain of GOP tears after lost Congress elections. Will 10% Section 122 tariff for 150 days be enough to push 150 countries to sign trade deals and commit trilions to fund Trump’s reindustrialization push? I have some doubts. Will war with Iran and closure of Hormuz Strait help? Maybe or maybe that Iranians do not close it.
The PEDOTUS was cock sure that India would stop importing oil from Russia, that’s 40% of the oil they import, which he threatened with tariffs if they wouldn’t comply. Modi said yesterday that India would continue importing oil from Russia even before this decision.
I am doubly thankful to the Diddler in Chief for, in his first term, demonstrating that the US was not trustworthy and for, in his second term, demonstrating that the US is not reliable. I also thank the Crash Test Dummy who was sandwiched by him for demonstrating that the USD is a liability.
Three cheers to these despicable men for their legacy for a better world!
I can’t wait to hear your take on this madness MISH, now Trump putting Global 10% tariffs on after the ruling:
“He said he will sign an executive order later Friday imposing the new duties, which are being invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Tariffs conjured using that statute can only last for 150 days, with any extension requiring congressional approval.
Asked at the press briefing about that time limit and about getting congressional buy-in, Trump said, “We have the right to do pretty much what we want to do.”
Trump also declared that all the tariffs active under statutes known as Section 232 and Section 301 will remain “in full force and effect.”
Directly defying SCOTUS was always on his docket methinks. I’m surprised it took him this long.
Probably didn’t want to upset the markets like always. These are the BS reasons how he lost to a mentally incapacitated Biden in 2020
Since Marco Rubio and Trump now proclaim that brute force and power overrides International law, I’m pretty sure Pam Bondi will rule that this principle also applies to domestic matters as the Supreme Court decisions are pretty much just guidelines rather than law.
I’m hearing that some “Duty Act” from 1930 is another option available, assuming the Trade Act doesn’t suffice. One thing’s for sure, ‘duty’ is the correct term.
Especially if you’re not into the whole brevity thing.
“ I truly fail to understand how this can be messy, unless the administration purposely tries to make it messy. But even then, the Trade Court should set the process.”
Trump’s entire career is littered with refusing to pay businesses what he owed them. This will be no different. He will do everything possible to prevent or delay payment. He will make it messy.
In the meantime, he will impose new tariffs in as many ways as he is allowed to. As expected.
It’s messy because all the money was wasted on the flotilla that was chased out by the Houthis and is FA Iran and will FO.
PS: that’s is, “fuck off”.
Didn’t take long for those new tariffs…
An additional 10% globally…
but it will take 150 days for them to expire.
A thinking person might have predicted that a policy of issuing direct tariffs from the Executive Office was of dubious legality/constitutionality and might have either second guessed the effort or pursued it a different way. But this is how we rule (as opposed to govern) nowadays with an incompetent and deadlocked Congress. Biden attempted the same thing with student debt relief and zig-zagged when the Supreme Court said no. The problem is narcissistic rulers thinking “if I can’t get what I want by doing it one way then I’ll try another way” instead of “I won’t be able to get what I want.”
Another thing – Trump now has a built-in scapegoat for when the recession inevitably arrives. You can hear it now… “See, I told you we’d be in big trouble by rescinding my big beautiful tariffs. It’s not my fault!”
He says all kinds of dumb shit that nobody believes already. Just more of the same.
That’s the difference between somebody who is maintains an ecosystem, like a fishtank, and some who does not.
You can’t “force” a fishtank to do anything but get sick or die.
A country is an ecosystem.
Because all recent presidents have(ab)used executive power since congress does absolutely nothing other than run for (re)election. They are incapable of accomplishing anything unless it’s deficit spending on any and all manners of nonsense, without restraint. I’m sure any ceo would get frustrated if they were tasked to run a company while nearly every decision require a board to act but they refused. This type of action/scotus reaction will continue in both-party fashion as long as the peoples’ representatives fiddle away.
Who’s ready for $300 a barrel oil? The Grifter in Chief is so desperate now for a distraction. If this is winning imagine what losing looks like, that’s coming. The evil he’s been up to goes a long way back & now this. The worse hasn’t even seen light yet.
He’s already for the next distraction as the second carrier group moves into position.
I think we are entering a time of prolonged wars. We will not win any of them in the long term. But every battle Trump will claim a decisive victory and say, “the war is over, where is my Nobel Peace prize”
I bet they already spent the tariff money so I guess they’ll be borrowing more from the Fed to pay refunds.
Yea he spent it on ICE to abuse & murder people, tax cuts for billionaires, took the food off the plates of the poor & removed 10 years plus off the lives of those who can’t afford medical bills.
Sounds about right
Attack Iran & the Grifter In Chief will know what real bankrupt is. He’ll bankrupt the world!
Every now and then, even a broken clock is right a couple of times of day.
Got exit strategy?
Not if it’s a 24 hour digital display.
Well the clock that said it is an antique, old analog, barely functional.
How does anyone know how much I deserve to be returned to me? 🙂
Zero unless you were one of those major importers who are now going to steal tariff money to fatten their profits. Consumers who ended up paying will get zero.
Trump gonna appeal to that logic that those companies stealing your refund to get groundswell support to not pay.
Did you save every receipt from April 1st to today?
I did not
The correct answer is receipts are worthless for consumers.
But if you paid a tariff, we did on an import, you may need a receipt.
trump will give a one time 10k to all amerikans as tariff refunds. right after all the other checks he said were on the way. the MAGA morons still believe in the pederast.