US customs trade data, compared to Trump’s Truth Social claim. Possible decision January 14.
It’s the IEEPA tariffs that are under Supreme Court review.
Total rebates, if they happened yesterday, would be 93.15 billion for fiscal year 2025 plus 40.36 billion for fiscal year 2026.
That total is 133.5 billion, rising daily.
This is highly speculative, but we may have a ruling on Wednesday, January 14.
Trump’s Claim
Truth Social Link: The actual numbers that we would have to pay back if, for any reason, the Supreme Court were to rule against the United States of America on Tariffs, would be many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and that doesn’t include the amount of “payback” that Countries and Companies would require for the Investments they are making on building Plants, Factories, and Equipment, for the purpose of being able to avoid the payment of Tariffs. When these Investments are added, we are talking about Trillions of Dollars! It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay. Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question. It may not be possible but, if it were, it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay. Remember, when America shines brightly, the World shines brightly. In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!
PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
Big Set of Trumpian Lies
The cumulative IEEPA total to date is 133.5 billion.
Trump’s claim “that doesn’t include the amount of “payback” that Countries and Companies would require for the Investments they are making on building Plants, Factories, and Equipment” is nonsense.
Those are wildly exaggerated unsecured pledges and mostly rebutted by source. Importantly, those are private investments, not US Treasury receipts.
Nothing was collected and there would be zero rebates.
IEEPA Tariff Breakdowns
Tariff Remedy Enforcement by Fiscal Year
Section 232 Tariffs
Trump’s statement “it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay,” is a blatant lie.
The idea we are collecting tariffs and don’t even know how much is laughable. The numbers on my charts are published administration numbers.
On the assumption that customs knows who it collected money from, the process is simple. Rebate the IEEPA tariff money collected. The administration has details for every category, updated daily.
The administration’s bragging by category proves they are lying about the difficulty of rebates.
Of course, one cannot possibly underestimate the potential stupidity of this administration.
If the Administration insisted, it could do things on a receipt-by-receipt basis. Then the administration would have mountains of paperwork to deal with.
Related Posts
November 16, 2025: What Are the Odds the Supreme Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs?
The Supreme Court decision is not random. I discuss a framework.
My take then was 75-25 against Trump. I expect a 6-3 ruling. Click for an analysis justice-by-justice.
December 29, 2025: Will Tariffs Be Refunded If the Supreme Court Strikes Them Down?
Polymarket provides no guidance because that bet expired December 31.
January 6, 2026: If the Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariffs, What Are His Options?
I count seven options Trump is likely to try. There are serious problems with all of them.
If the court rules in Trump’s favor because of the “complications” involved, what sort of precedent does that set? Surely the law is the law regardless? No point in having laws if you can get around them so easily.
Laws require enforcement. There has been almost no enforcement of laws that Trump has broken, so his supporters say he is clean as a whistle. This can go on for another three years, easily.
First point is that the tariffs would be easy to refund as every dollar collected has a receipt for who paid it.
Second point is that companies can use the windfall rebate for any purpose including: increasing profits, rebate sales and discounts, increased dividends etc.
Some have already filed suit to get their rebate, plus interest.
Bottom line is that Trump has proven himself to be a lying buffoon again.
Epstein!
Those “Big Beautiful Tariffs” are easy-peasy to collect and impossible to refund. What an effing joke.
I would expect SCOTUS to rule that goat remains alive (reciprocal tariffs are illegal) and wolf feeling fed (no reimbursment of money). It will be funny to watch how foerign governments will behave if SCOTUS rules tariffs nul and void. My guess is that EU will offer to pay them voluntarilly to keep the US in NATO. What about some other vassals like Japan, RoK, Taiwan?
There goes my 2000 dollar check. Oh and i paid extra so corporations could get the refund.
But that money is already has already been spent bailing out the farmers anyway. Plus prob been promised to a few more groups also.
Talking about waste. Where is doge when they are truly needed.
He will just blame it on the liberal courts and his base will love him. Can wait to see how the no tax on tips and overtime works out.
$2000 check is just a gimmick to pass the blame from POTUS to SCOTUS. Trump’s talk about $2000 check means that he knows that SCOTUS is going to kill his reciprocal tariffs.
If you ever believed you would get that $2,000, you’ll keep being Trump’s sucker
DOGE didn’t save much of anything, just look at the deficit, Trump brags about cutting waste and spending and yet here we are aiming for yet another $2TT deficit.
I can’t read this Supreme Court. But I know that the only thing that doesn’t matter is the Constitution.
US SUPREME COURT RULING ON TARIFFS
SCOTUS rules tariffs are unauthorized under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act
(IEEPA) Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer, 343 U.S. 579; 1952
ISSUES A STAY (90-120 day) for congressional action
– Congress subsequently approves the tariffs
( huffs and puffs but we won’t let you do it again )
====================================================
Well I did my research and this is what I have found / my ruling
I’ve said it for months but add the caselaw
STAY VALIDITY Smith v. Spizzirri (2024), the Court clarified mandatory stays pending arbitration, emphasizing preservation of status quo. More broadly, Rule 41 of the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure allows stays of mandate up to 90 days (extendable)
——————— You are welcome
I do not know what the Supreme Court will decide.
If they decide that Trump’s tariffs are illegal, then Trump will be very vindictive towards the Justices. And, he will still find other ways to implement tariffs.
If they rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs, then I expect Trump to bring in as many tariffs as possible over the rest of his term. And he will rip up almost all current trade agreements. He will then demand more concessions from everyone. Which will only serve to isolate the US from the rest of the world even more.
We live in interesting times.
This whole situation is like a race car trying to stop by spinning the tires in reverse. Right now its still moving forward and the smoke is billowing out but its gonna take off in reverse at some point….
for all of you easily-confused who don’t still know what Trump is and are expecting a rebate
….Trump has been pitching the idea of dividend rebates from tariff revenues since July. During a Dec. 2 Cabinet meeting, the president again discussed the potential checks, saying, “Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we’re going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, as we have taken in literally trillions of dollars.”
But during a two-hour interview on Jan. 7 with four White House correspondents from The New York Times, Trump asked, “I did do that? When did I do that?” when reporter Katie Rogers asked about when Americans could expect the $2,000 tariff dividend checks he promised, according to the interview transcript.
The tariffs are not good for business and I would be shocked if they are not shot down. The Republican justices are keenly aware of what happens when we get a Democratic president with this kind of power. They know someone like AOC or Gavin would go crazy with green tariffs and god knows what else.
some big companies will get some. no small companies. forget about individual customers. i would expect the date of payments will be after the coming 50 state solution by jan 20, 2028. meaning zip
Doesn’t taco largely control the supreme court? I wouldn’t spend those tariff refunds as taco and his band of rulebreakers will find a way to keep those tariffs, if necessary.
I dunno. If the Supremes listened to the Economists howling that “It’s the Consumers that Pay the Tax”, They might be tempted to join that game of make believe and have Trump rebate those tariff revenues to US citizens, like he was planning to anyways.
I still think the Tariffs will stand.
They can’t rebate directly to citizens. It would be to companies who imported the products and paid the tariffs. None of the money would get to the final consumers (or very very little of it).
…have Trump rebate those tariff revenues to US citizens, like he was planning to anyways…
Whadda dreamer
Fair markets are free markets….
Everybody (including the Supreme Court) knows that if the tariffs are ruled unconstitutional that Trump will just find another unconstitutional method to get his way.
So maybe the SC will decide not to play a cat and mouse game and allow the tariffs to stand, at least in part, to avoid further trouble from Trump, including possible personal retaliation on his part.
They could also rule that the tariffs are unconstitutional and leave it to Congress to enact any remedy. Which would effectively mean no refunds, IMO. Too messy. Can’t unscramble that egg.
They know exactly, to the penny, the amounts that were paid to the US treasury. Nothing to unscramble.
Yes but in effect what would happen is 132 billion would be handed out to companies and ZERO to consumers who bought the final product with the tariff on it.
One suspects the public would not be very happy to find out all the tariff rebates were going to companies (billionaires) and none to them. Hence the easiest ruling is what Sentient suggests, rule unconstitutional and no tariff going forward but anything paid is water under the bridge.
It would be up to the importers. Where they “ate” the tariffs, the money is theirs. They have records of where they passed it to consumers. It’s not going to be that hard to do. The costs of doing it? They could sue Trump.
Why would the importers give up free money? None of them would. Furthermore the effort involved in tracking down individual consumers would be theirs to bear and they could not sue Trump for it (or rather they could but they’d almost certainly lose and even if they didn’t it would be years and years in court by the time appeals for that finished).
In other words easier to just pocket any rebates.
Interesting. What’s the penalty for the president intentionally doing something unconstitutional again? He gets shot down each time but the ball remains in play. May you live in interesting times.
They wouldn’t dare.
Pardon? I couldn’t hear you around the jackboot in your mouth.
They might be $0.