Here’s a breakdown of BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) by sector. 
This data is from the current BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report.
Business Employment Dynamics is a set of statistics generated from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program.
Chart Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Concepts
CES stands for Current Employment Statistics (the monthly job reports). It is plagued by poor samples, small sample sizes, response rate bias, and non responses.
Net BED Job Gains and Losses by Sector 5-Quarter Total
- Net Total: +94,000
- Natural Resources and Mining: -21,000
- Construction: +21,000
- Manufacturing: -340,000
- Wholesale Trade: -66,000
- Retail Trade: -222,000
- Transportation: +119,000
- Utilities: +15,000
- Information: -106,000
- Financial Activities: -20,000
- Professional and Business Services: -247,000
- Education and Health Services: +862,000
- Leisure and Hospitality: -186,000
- Other Services: -18,000
I used 5 quarters because that is how the report summarized things. Going forward, I will maintain the charts from here.
Education and Health Services was the only sector to gain jobs in every quarter. It took a massive 862,000 net gain to hold the overall net total barely positive at 94,000.
On average, that is 18,800 jobs per quarter, only 6,267 jobs per month on average.
Manufacturing, and Professional and Business Services are the only sectors that lost jobs every quarter.
Note that the sum of the parts usually does not match the totals. Also, this data severely lags. The chart is through the third quarter of 2025.
Net BED Job Gains and Losses by Sector
BED Manufacturing Jobs Gains and Losses
BED Manufacturing Jobs Gains and Losses by Quarter Details
- 2024 Q3: -79,000
- 2024 Q4: -55,000
- 2025 Q1: -37,000
- 2025 Q2: -69,000
- 2025 Q3: -100,000
In contrast to monthly jobs reports, this lagging data is very accurate.
Were it not for AI and boomer health care, this economy would be in the gutter.
Reflections on Tariffs
Trump’s tariffs are an expansion of Biden’s tariffs, which were themselves a continuation of Trump’s tariffs.
So regarding manufacturing, please give Trump credit for 2024 as well.
There is no doubt Trump’s tariffs have clobbered small businesses.
Job Creation Negative Again
Yesterday, I commented Net Job Creation by New Businesses Is Negative Once Again
- From June 2025 to September 2025, gross job losses from contracting and closing private-sector establishments were 7.6 million, a decrease of 272,000 jobs from the previous quarter.
- Over this period, gross job gains from expanding and opening private-sector establishments were 7.5 million, a decrease of 110,000 jobs from the previous quarter.
For more details and chart, please click the above link.
This update is from a reader request for sector-specific changes. I frequently take such requests as time permits.
Firm Size
- Firms with 1 to 49 employees had a net employment decrease of 138,000.
- Firms with 50 to 249 employees experienced a net employment loss of 75,000.
- Firms with 250 or more employees added 4,000 net jobs.
Trump’s tariffs are destroying small businesses. There’s no doubt about that. But he’s too stubborn and too economically illiterate to admit it.
This looks incredibly stagflationary, but for now, AI is keeping the economy in expansion.
Related Posts
April 30, 2026: AI Provided Nearly All the GDP Growth in the First Quarter
Let’s go over the AI-GDP math to see how I arrive at the numbers.
April 30, 2026: PCE Inflation Is Ripping Higher. Don’t Expect Fed Interest Rate Cuts
Year-over-year PCE inflation jumped to 3.5 percent. The Fed wants 2.0 percent.
May 1, 2026: ISM Employment Contracts 31 Months, Prices Rise 19 months
“The Prices Index has increased 25.6 percentage points to reach its highest level since April 2022 (84.6 percent).”
May 2, 2026: Gasoline Is 59 Cents from Record High, Diesel Only 19 Cents Away
Hello consumers and farmers. Are you tired of winning yet?
Mish thanks for doing the break down by sector.
Pretty clear that boomers are not turning wrenches as they retire so those manufacturing job losses are younger people. People here are sure it means offshoring to China but it could just as easily mean robots and other automated processes in US manufacturing are replacing workers.
I do however strongly suspect the professional services are retiring boomer because I expect that’s medical, lawyers, accountants and similar jobs that boomers would be doing in small businesses.
Not sure what to say but the loss of manufacturing jobs would probably be even more drastic without tariffs? The U.S. cannot compete with China on manufacturing labor costs.
I do have a couple of friends who own small tooling businesses and the tariffs have helped them be more price competitive with China competitors. I cannot speak to other industries.
What should be more worrisome than manufacturing job losses is the leisure job and professional services losses since services is more important than manufacturing to the economy.
On a good note: Yardeni research said initial jobles claims hit a low going back to 1969. We probably have 150 million more people in the U.S since then. So that is c crazy.
“On a good note: Yardeni research said initial jobles claims hit a low going back to 1969. We probably have 150 million more people in the U.S since then. So that is c crazy.”
There are 77 million people receiving free money handouts and free healthcare, someone has to provide the goods and services these people are buying and using so expect unemployment to remain low through 2036 or until it all starts falling apart.
Good point. AI told me that 65% to 67% of the people in Queens borough in New York city is on Medicaid. 52% in the Bronx. We all know how much medical insurance is these days. I pay $15k in premiums with a $3k deductible. My company subsidizes another $19K towards the premium.
From AI
Paying Medical Expenses on Medicaid in New York City
If you have Medicaid in New York City, you generally do not have to pay for most medical services — but there are some exceptions and rules to be aware of.
1. No out-of-pocket costs for covered services
Medicaid is free health insurance for eligible New Yorkers, including those in NYC. You should not receive bills for covered care. If you do, the provider should refund the amount or explain why the bill was issued
.
2. Small copays may apply
For certain services (like doctor visits, prescriptions, or some procedures), Medicaid may require a small copay — usually between $0.50 and $3 — but you cannot be denied care for not paying it. If you can’t pay the copay, the provider should still give you the service.
3. Emergency care
Emergency room visits are almost always covered, even if you are not yet enrolled in Medicaid
2036?
As a nation I doubt we will make it that far. By that time we’ve probably be in both a world war and a civil war.
In a world war sadly might happen, but a civil war would be outrageously absurd. The culture war is a bunch of fake propaganda bs churned out by tptb attempting to try and pit americans against each other. The losers spreading that hate dont even believe it, the politicians and their backers are lying with their claims to be conservative or liberal. Just look at what both Republicans and Democrats DO, not what they say. They both perpetually pass massive deficit spending bills that just add more to the debt, and nearly all supposed conservatives vote for more debt, so they are not conservative. It is this runaway debt and its costs to the economy that is the root of all the problems in the country and 99% of people vote for it, so both *sides* dont differ at all in what they are voting for.
There’s 1 pepper wrong. And then there’s 5 pepper wrong.
On my way home from Tractor Supply this morning, I noticed that regular gas was now $4.99 at my local gas station. It was $2.69 the day of the election. Diesel is $6.09!
Good thing I bought my Farms Diesel forward through roughly October 30th. All of the Trumpers around here thought it was going to get cheaper and teased me for buying it forward.
The farming community is getting royally screwed and you simply do not see many MAGA hats any more. But most of them support killing the sand people on behalf of Israel.
Do you have a guess as to how many of those who support Israel are also ironically anti-Semites? Surely more than zero.
Its not irony. The Temple in Jerusalem must be rebuilt before Jesus can return. Its pure evangelicalism.
Yes, we must force God’s Hand by getting that darn temple rebuilt lickety-split! How else are we going to finally show those libs that we were right! The Persians rebuilt the temple last time and we got a brown, Jewish Jesus. This time us Americans will rebuild, and we’ll get a good Anglo-redneck Jesus!
Does a temple ballroom count? Ha ha
RBOB gasoline chart (so no state / local tax) –
RBOB Gasoline PRICE Today | RBOB Gasoline Spot Price Chart | Live Price of RBOB Gasoline per Ounce | Markets Insider
That’s spelled Baal Room.
“All of the Trumpers around here thought it was going to get cheaper and teased me for buying it forward.”
Trumpers = dumb. Your evidence, as admitted, is accepted, dumb sentenced to bankruptcy, case closed.
Over $4 for the first time here. $4.19 to be exact.
How is it that oil prices are down today?!
What makes anyone think the oil supply chain is getting better?
It really seems like there is market manipulation going on.
In rural North Dakota, there is literally nothing Trump could do that would shake the faith of the locals.
It is truly a sight to behold.
The vast majority of people you find living in rural areas are there because they are too dumb to make it anywhere else.
Government intervening in the free markets and virtue-signaling C-suite executives (where in this case the “C” stands for cuck)
Equals the following:
“GM’s move came less than a month after Ford Motor Co. announced it was taking a $19.5 billion write-down on its EV business. Ford has racked up a jaw-dropping $35.1 billion in losses on its EV misadventure, which raises the question: why on earth does Ford chief executive Jim Farley still have a job? Ford’s EV disaster will go down as one of the biggest fiascos in modern automobile history, yet Farley still took home $24.9 million in compensation in 2024.”
https://www.johnlocke.org/car-companies-have-lost-114b-on-evs/
And the funny thing is every body wants an EV now or they soon will when gas is $10/gallon. Lol.
Asking traditional American auto management to actually build something people need that works at an affordable price is idiotic to start with. Building an F150 EV is hardly virtue signaling. It is the epitome of dumb. The average neighborhood Joe who wants to buy an F150 could give a damn about the environment.
It’s the definition of virtue signalling
Who are you signaling? Leftists will think its idiotic to build a heavy vehicle with a heavy battery, and rightists don’t want an EV regardless.
I really like the idea of a huge battery you can use to be comfortable in remote places. Unfortunately the weight makes them not very capable off-road.
Very few Democrats care about energy efficiency. The more they have to spend, the larger home with larger energy footprint they will get, the more jet fuel they will burn on travel. A lot of them dont even recycle. Nearly the same as Republicans with resource consumption, just supposedly socially liberal but the liberal politicians they vote for are fakes as they arent taxing the rich more and massive deficit spending (which Republicans do in equal) causes all kinds of social problems.
Trump loves to rename/name places or something –
such as
Gulf of Mexico → “Gulf of America”
Denali → “Mount McKinley”
6th Generation Fighter Jet – F47
Strait of Hormuz – Strait of Trump
Nobody care to rename.
But don’t be disappointed.
You’ll be honored on coming great event.
“Trump Recession”
Ooo…Ooo…I got one from yesterday….
He calls “barrels of oil”…. “energy”…he’s like a retarded baby
“Trump on Oil Prices:
Everybody was wrong. They thought energy would be at $300. It’s at like 100. And I think it’s going down. There’s a lot of energy out there on ships all over the world that are loaded up with it.”
Firstly oil price is already rise from 60 to 110$. ie. nearly 100%
That price is Future. Also cos of release of strategic reserves(SPR)
Spot price is around 140$.
The longer the oil price is over 100, the worse the world economy.
Strategic reserves are getting lower and lower.
Its not only oil but also fertilizer, aluminium, etc.
Global/regional recession is not ruled out.
That’s why Trump is rushing to clear Strait.
“Information” and “Professional and business services”…
…will be slaughtered as AI starts to gain momentum…multi-year never ending declines in the offing
They first came after the farm workers with tractors. The farmers went on to become factory workers. Then, they came after the factory workers with robots. The factory workers went on to become engineers. Then, they came after the engineers with AI. The Epstein Class finally got rid of the working class. That is, until Dr. Guillotin presents his business card.
The world has plenty of oil, but a different shortage is emerging
https://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-oil-jet-fuel-naphtha-lpg-shortage-hormuz-disruption-2026-5
Where all of those manufacturing jobs that taco was going to bring back to the US? Where are they hiding?
Those new manufacturing jobs will be all done by robots, not people.
They will be hired to replenish stocks of cruise missiles and other precision-guided munitions that have been depleted in Iran and Ukraine.
Even discounting the effects of the Iran “excursion” many AI projects are hitting the barrier of supply chain issues and the lift provided by AI construction cannot continue if all the business becomes is the provision of dark, empty boxes waiting years for the enabling hardware.
All Trump talked about on the campaign trail was tariffs and manufacturing. He rarely discussed AI. Nearly 1.5 years into the second Trump term, the U.S. economy is growing at best at 2%. Of that 2%, 75% of that growth is coming from the almost unimaginable amount of money being invested in building AI data centers. Manufacturing jobs are consistently shrinking, and the much-discussed easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve is completely off the table.
You cannot tell me that Trump did not know that manufacturing jobs were not coming back and that his second term would be pushing AI and crypto dominance, which are not job-creating investments but, in fact, job-destroying investments. Trump’s biggest donors and most visible supporters in the corporate world leading up to his election were opportunistic billionaires in the tech industry. Trump’s blue-collar, red hat-wearing, non-college-educated voters were duped again.
They not only destroy jobs, they are digital prisons for anyone that thinks outside the box or colors outside the lines.
I am not arguing the data, but arguing that Trump “knows” anything based on data presented to him is like when I tried to explain to a cocker spaniel about the design of the Space Shuttle.
I mean, I put the engineering texts out and everything.
I appreciate the humor, but Donald Trump is a con man. He has been selling his entire life and doing so not only by telling people what they want to hear, but also by actually convincing people, unshackled from the truth, to suspend common sense and hard facts in favor of his greatly exaggerated narrative.
Those jobs charts should be projected on to a giant screen in front of the White House.
Another week, another consequence of the orangutan’s ignorance
This guys is a disgrace to knowledge and decency. Unfortunately evolutionary biology says we have to suffer through the natural selection process
But an orange clown and his cult told me that tariffs would bring back manufacturing, are you saying he has been a total failure?
And all those tariffs caused farmers to go bankrupt and now we have airlines going bankrupt too.
And now with the Strait closed, energy prices (i.e. diesel) is soaring that will drive the costs of all goods used in manufacturing to skyrocket.
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
“And now with the Strait closed, energy prices (i.e. diesel) is soaring that will drive the costs of all goods used in manufacturing to skyrocket.”
JoJo assures us that he has never personally bought diesel, so the nation is safe.
40% of China’s exports are intermediate goods, i.e. goods used in further manufacturing and processing. So putting tariffs on these just increases the costs (and reduces the competitiveness) of those that use these components in their manufacturing.
excellent comment
Of course. But now American companies that import those intermediate products at a higher price have to compete with Chinese companies that don’t. The Chinese win, American labor loses. But Trump supporters just can’t understand that.
Yeah – just like 2+2=4 !!!!