Trump is in a very bad spot with three losing options.
Iran Submits Response
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran Says It Submitted Response to U.S. Proposal, State Media Reports
Iran sent on Sunday its response to the latest proposed U.S. draft agreement for ending the war, the country’s state news agency IRNA reported.
According to the proposed plan, the current phase of negotiations is focused exclusively on the cessation of hostilities in the region, IRNA reported. It gave no further details of the Iranian response.
The U.S. and Iran are working with Pakistani mediators to draft a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would set the parameters for a month of talks to end the war, people familiar with the matter have previously told The Wall Street Journal.
The working document calls for Iran to ease its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. would wind back its blockade of Iranian ports during 30 days of talks, according to people familiar with the text.
Brilliant Response
Details are scarce, likely because there purposely aren’t any. That’s a brilliant response with no hype or irrational demands on the US.
It’s a simple proposal to stop the war and open up the strait. 90 percent of the world wants the strait open and hostilities to end.
Israel and the warmongers don’t like this starting point, but that’s about it. However, it would make Trump back down, making him look like the loser he is.
Iran Statement
Who Won’t Deal?
A Reminder
Douglas Macgregor
Douglas Macgregor: Netanyahu has something he’s never had before – complete control of the US Armed Forces. Absolute allegiance and obedience of the US President and Congress. He knows he has to use it or lose it. Macgregor says Netanyahu knows this window is closing. He has to use America’s remaining power now – or the “Greater Israel Project” collapses.
Gasoline Gaslighting
“Gas price have come down today. Have you looked. They have come down very substantially.”
Trump repeatedly makes himself look like an ass with these lies.
I just checked. The national average gasoline price is down today by less than a penny, $0.008 to be precise.
Netanyahu on Face the Nation
Netanyahu Q&A
Q: “Is the war with Iran over?”
Netanyahu: “It’s not over because there’s still nuclear material.”Q: “How do you envision highly enriched uranium will be removed from Iran?” Netanyahu: “You go in and take it out…President Trump has said to me, ‘I want to go in there.’”
Netanyahu’s demands are clear. And there’s 3-way pressure on Trump.
- Pressure Point One: Trump for whatever reason is beholden to Israel. He also listens to warmongers like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham. Some believe it’s Epstein blackmail. Whatever, the reason it’s real.
- Pressure Point Two: The second pressure point on Trump comes from rising oil prices, fertilizer prices, farmers, independents, and everyone who is sick of this stupid war. US allies are also applying pressure, even China.
- Pressure Point Three: Himself. Trump cannot admit he made a mistake. He wants a better deal than Obama and Iran is unwilling to give it. Iran’s response today was simple and brilliant. Open up the strait for 30 days.
It’s clear Trump does not want to escalate because of inflation and depletion of missiles. He’s been making excuses for not retaliating.
His gaslighting is through the roof. Trump even claims gasoline prices are coming down and inflation is a small price to pay.
The new goal is to get things back to where they were before Trump started this international mess.
Trump’s Move
Trump’s Three Losing Options
- War with unknown consequences
- A humiliating deal that lets oil pass through while negotiations continue
- Status quo and rising inflation, gasoline prices, fertilizer prices, diesel, etc.
So which is it?
But hey, all praise and glory to our new God.
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Article backdrop to excellent “Trébuchet” chess image in Mishs article. Written by a Neocon.
Excellent summary of what was written and commented in this blog the past 60 days. Most of the comments, that is.
“Checkmate in IranWashington can’t reverse or control the consequences of losing this war.”
By Robert Kagan
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-war-trump-losing/687094/
The options are the same as the day they went medieval on an elderly Shia cleric and a few hundred school children:
a. JCPOA + Hormuz toll booth
b. Duke Nukem: Persian Gulf Total Mutual Extermination Edition
c. Enlarged Prostate sort-of-but-not-really war dribble (*** odds on fave)
People underestimate the destabilizing effect of long term GCC butt clenching.
Seems to me iran would want to keep the straight closed just up to the threshold of other nations joining the us to open it. As long as those in charges have food and those who dont do not have guns they can hold out.
Trump will go with option #4 – A humiliating deal that lets oil pass through while “negotiations” continue – all the while declaring victory to which his shameless, quarter-wit supporters will parrot.
Bunkum. Trump has achieved his purpose of stopping the Persians from developing missiles that could threaten Israel and Europe. Apart from that, things will eventually settle down, with the Persians in a slightly weaker position, and other countries (Britain, France, Australia) being forced to lend a hand in keeping the Strait open. Trump isn’t stupid and he isn’t as corrupt as your Johnson, who ran the Viet Nam War for the benefit of the arms producers.
Here’s the sad truth. The United States is so cooked the people don’t even care about Trump and other elites abusing underage girls. So whatever the blackmail material is it wouldn’t matter…people will just go to work the next day and try to survive to the next paycheck. They don’t even give a damn about toddlers being gunned down in their classrooms regularly. It’s a sick society.
“They don’t even give a damn about toddlers being gunned down in their classrooms regularly.”
Not true! I know our second amendment patriots courageously send their thoughts and prayers to those kids distraught parents. NOT just thoughts, NOT just prayers, but both! MAGA! /s
“They don’t even give a damn about toddlers being gunned down in their classrooms regularly. It’s a sick society.”
What a dumb comment. How the hell would you know either way? Did you take a poll? How many of the 330 million did you ask?
How do I know? Because it keeps happening and the population doesn’t demand better! It happens more in the US than any other county on the planet. Little kids go to school with their lunch boxes and are gunned down by assault weapons ment for war. Instead of politicians doing something, the most they can offer are thoughts and prayers. I highly doubt any of them even think twice about the children and they definitely don’t pray for their souls. Wake up! Actions speak louder than words.
Israel has compromised the whole goverment and used underage girls to blackmail people…no one cares. Trillions of dollars squandered on wars for Israel…the opportunity cost is insurmountable interms of if those trillions were actually spend for the betterment of the lives of the American people.
What the “others” did was to HIRE LITTLE HOOKERS. I don’t think Trump did even that. I agree with you about people being apathetic, but if you expect people to rise up to punish people for sins that you or somebody made up, you are illustrating WHY people don’t get indignant any more. Lynching mobs of fools don’t do society any good. (I’m not defending the present judiciary.)
Once again the Iranians look like the rational ones to the rest of the world. And Trump looks like the demented fool that he is.
its about 3-4 weeks until the energy and raw material import shortages hit US pricing for real and then all the morons who think the US can go it alone will be have to get their heads out of their ass, the first individual being the Orangutan.
it sure looks like the Chinese are going to be forced to step in economically and send Trump packing , and thereby once again step convince the rest of the world that they are better stewards of the international trade system. This is how trading empires like the USA die – ignorance and hubris.
https://markashryock.substack.com/p/eight-weeks-to-empty-shelves-sixty
“Not all fuels are equal in this crisis. Diesel runs out first. And when diesel stops, America stops.
U.S. distillate inventories (diesel and jet fuel combined) are 11 percent below the five-year average and at the lowest levels since 2005. In Michigan, diesel hit $6.00 per gallon. In the Great Lakes region, it is above $6.00. In California, projections range from $6.00 to $8.90 per gallon depending on how long the crisis continues.
Diesel is not a luxury fuel. Diesel is the blood supply of the American economy. Seventy percent of all agricultural and food products in the United States are transported by truck. Every truck runs on diesel. Every tractor in every field runs on diesel. Every combine harvester runs on diesel. Every refrigerated trailer keeping food cold on its way to your grocery store runs on diesel. Every freight train pulling grain cars runs on diesel.
When diesel becomes scarce, trucks stop moving. When trucks stop moving, food does not get picked up from farms. It does not get delivered to processing plants. It does not get driven to distribution centers. It does not arrive at grocery stores.”
Tough read! I’d like to see the math performed a little better though. You know New Production + Existing Stores Drawdown Rate + Imports – Exports – Usage over some time frame, for each petroleum product. And where does Congress step in to legislate and end to exports? They’ll have to override Trump’s veto of course, as I’m sure he’ll be profiting mightily from exporting our oil to China.
Oil will not be the issue. Our economy requires alot of other raw materials and inputs that we don’t produce anymore
> Diesel is the blood supply of the American economy
Of any economy. Double the price of diesel and many essential services come to a standstill; your list barely covers 10% of what runs on diesel or kerosene.
12 months of something not operating and it’s usually gone forever. Back to the stone age. That’s the plan BTW, in case no-one has noticed.
Greater Israel indeed.
For those who couldn’t read to the end of his first response
here’s the short version
TRUMP: “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”
Gonna be a fun Monday
No use wondering what Trump wants anymore . “Netanyahu has something he’s never had before – complete control of the US Armed Forces. Absolute allegiance and obedience of the US President and Congress. He knows he has to use it or lose it.” ….Netanyahu wants continued War with Iran and America is only involved as the Sugar Daddy supplying Israel with more weapons, so the future looks bleak.
Might as well just listen to what Netanyahu decides to know how things are going to evolve with the Iran War… going forward.
Nope! Let’s get real!
Iran’s economy is in freefall.. They are experiencing hyperinflation where the Rial peg is around 1.8 MILLION to US 1$. Their leadership has been decimated. Their military destroyed. They are running out of water and food. The vast majority of their oil revenues are being blocked. Their oil storage capability is about to run out. The US has disabled at least 4 Iranian oil tankers trying to run the blockade in the last few days. The Iranians have scored zero hits on US military ships. There are oil spills on Iranian beaches.
This is not the time allow the Iranian Regime to regroup. This is the time to squeeze harder and pop that zit. Restart bombing and target their water production units next.
Sure. Good luck with that. Trump wants out. He has already pissed away a lot of our munitions, and is now in a worse position than before the war started. He thought he could get a quick win. Now he is bogged down in an unwinnable situation. What a loser.
Just like Trump, and the Strait closure…
the obvious retaliation to “target their water production units next” does not occur to you.
All of our “allies” in the region also depend on desalinization plants also.
I wonder what Iran has promised to do???
Iran only gets 10% of its water from desalination. Israel gets 75% of its household water from desalination.
Iran has no power left. They have been decimated, destroyed, ruined, demolished, wrecked, devastated, smashed, wasted, shattered
pulverized, creamed, ravaged.
Let Iran try to bring it. Popcorn is ready!
LOL! You sound as stupid as Trump.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/cia-says-iran-has-70-percent-pre-war-missile-stockpile-can-withstand-blockade-months-report
Middle East Eye is like getting your news from RT.com. This explains all your silly postings.
The Chinese are subsidizing their economy. They can hold out forever.
It would be entertaining to watch Iran destroy Israel’s desalination plants.
Iran can’t destroy Navy ships right off their border. They have zero chance of hitting Israel at this point in time.
Iran has a lot of precision missiles left. When they hit Qatar’s LNG facility at Ras Laffan, they very specifically hit Train 4 and 6 because those two trains were partially owned by US companies. They left the other dozen LNG trains alone. They can hit what they want, when they want.
You know this information how?
Not only de facto wrong (Iran’s leaders survive while the populace suffers), but your desalination only furthers that dichotomy with a war crimes methodology.
You’re just doubling down failures…
[Shrug] Who exactly is going to enforce these so-called laws?
Go back to bed Bibi.
Summer is coming, which means the snow melt will help eliviate their water supply issue.
the gulf states, not so much.
all of this is not reducing the debt Bitcoin to the rescue? U.S. Dollar ‘Collapse’—A $39 Trillion Debt ‘Crisis’ Is Quietly Predicted To Trigger A Huge Bitcoin Price Boom To Rival Gold
https://archive.ph/7WlOe
Some details from Iran’s counter proposal
– Iran proposes ending the war and gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade
– Willing to suspend uranium enrichment, but for a shorter period than the 20-year moratorium the U.S. proposed
– Rejects dismantling nuclear facilities entirely
– Offers to dilute some highly enriched uranium and transfer the rest to a third country, but only with guarantees it will be returned if talks fail or the U.S. exits the deal
– Iran also demands a full lifting of sanctions, return of frozen funds, and continued Iranian control of the Strait
– A ceasefire in Lebanon is framed as a red line condition
– Negotiations will continue via written exchanges mediated by Pakistan
Iran calls it “realistic and positive.” Washington has not responded yet.
Trump just responded. Said Iran’s response was “totally unacceptable”. 🤣🤣🤣
As expected. So the stalemate continues. The strait remains mostly closed. The global economy will continue to suffer.
What a show!
Odds of Trump being impeached in 2027 now up to 100%.
No stalemate at all. We continue to squeeze Iran and see how long they can hold out. Talk is cheap.
As to world economy, so what? Not our responsibility. Imagine the state of the world economy if Iran had nuke bombed London!
LOL! Trump is desperate for this to end. He can’t stand that Iran is now controlling the strait. It makes him look like a loser. He is looking for a way out of this mess. And morons like you think he is winning.
Where do you get your news down in TX? Do your kids call you the crazy grandpa?
Iran isn’t controlling anything. The USA is disabling any Iranian ship that attempts to run the blockade. Oil leaks are polluting Iranian beaches. Iran shot off some drones but they were all shot down.
It is now being reported that the UK and France are sending warships in.
My whole theory has been that this situation in Iran is really about China, and not so much Iran (I mean why do this now when America is relatively weak why not 40 years ago when no one dared to stand up to America?) thus why I point to the summit in China.
The hope is either China gives Trump a way out or makes him understand that going forward with this will not only destroy Western economies (and their allies) it will also destroy their societies; but if China can’t get Trump to stand down on the issue of Iran we can only conclude the current warships the EU is signaling that they are sending means a prolonged war in the future.
But the fact that it take time for these war ships to arrive does suggest if there is any action in regards to bombing Iran it will come after the summit in China (June or July is my guess).
In the game he’s playing with China, Trumpstien doesn’t even have any uno cards. Or pants, for that matter.
If they don’t cancel the meeting, they will use it to absolutely humiliate him while smiling. He may or may not pick up on it.
https://fortune.com/2026/05/10/steve-hanke-trump-beijing-summit-china-leverage-rare-earths-hormuz/
Oh I agree with you Trump has no cards to play with China, even though he believes Iran is his ace in the hole.
And I also agree that Trump probably wouldn’t understand if they did humiliate him directly to his face. His brain would glitch and think they were praising him.
The British and French ships will impotently sit beside the Usonian ships 300 km away.
There are of course multiple clocks ticking here. The first one is Trump’s trip to China on May 14, not very far in the future. If I had to guess, I would expect the administration to keep the Iranian MoU secret and not divulge details (not that there are likekly to be any in a 1 page document). That way Trump can continue to make his statements about great progress being made, but if Iran doesn’t open the strait soon we will blow them away. No public humiliation prior to going into China.
After that, I think it depends on how “bored” Trump is with the whole situation. If he truly doesn’t care much any more, maybe an Iranian proposal to open the stait as long as ships pay a “fee” for “upkeep and security” of the strait will become palatable to him. Or if Iran were to propose a split of the fee with the US (both Iran and US contributing to the security), he might actually jump at it. Who knows, strange things might happen.
Trump isn’t going to get “bored” here. All his underlings are repeating the same message “Trump says that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon”. THIS is the important point.
The Trump administration doesn’t really care a lot about opening the Strait. We have plenty of oil. Our markets are near all time highs. Employment numbers are good. The FED did not increase interest rates.
By referring to “all his underlings” are you referring to Israel?
Did you not read the article, Israel is not his underling – but the reverse.
Iran wants the US out totally.
Trump is not happy….
Iran has been playing games with the United States, and the rest of the World, for 47 years (DELAY, DELAY, DELAY!), and then finally hit “pay dirt” when Barack Hussein Obama became President. He was not only good to them, he was great, actually going to their side, jettisoning Israel, and all other Allies, and giving Iran a major and very powerful new lease on life. Hundreds of Billions of Dollars, and 1.7 Billion Dollars in green cash, flown into Tehran, was handed to them on a silver platter. Every Bank in D.C., Virginia, and Maryland was emptied out — It was so much money that when it arrived, the Iranian Thugs had no idea what to do with it. They had never seen money like this, and never will again. It was taken off the plane in suitcases and satchels, and the Iranians couldn’t believe their luck. They finally found the greatest SUCKER of them all, in the form of a weak and stupid American President. He was a disaster as our “Leader,” but not as bad as Sleepy Joe Biden! For 47 years the Iranians have been “tapping” us along, keeping us waiting, killing our people with their roadside bombs, destroying protests, and recently wiping out 42,000 innocent, unarmed protestors, and laughing at our now GREAT AGAIN Country. They will be laughing no longer! President DONALD J. TRUMP
If all that is the mantra for this war its sure is not being ‘pitched’ to the American people as that
What was going over there 25 years before “the 47 years”?
Why is Taco so obsessed with Obama? It’s like his ego can’t handle those high approval ratings the guy had. Obama looks like a great human being compared with this clown!
Trump noticed Obama’s um, “tan”.
Obama showed that a (half)black man could be above all other white men. It busted the bubble they had where no matter how hard they failed, how degenerate they became, they were above black people.
It’s the Obama Trauma.
I often wonder how anyone can claim Obama was nice to Iran he continued the the tradition of sanctioning Iran as every president did after Carter, except Bush sr (probably because of the Iran contra hearings making it a sensitive topic).
This is why I always bring up Obama first when talking about sanctions on Iran (mostly that and when he sanctioned Iran the BRICS was founded shortly after, and that is important when viewing todays mess) to highlight the fact Obama really wasn’t different from any of the rest. Thus to blame him, or criticize him over Iran is nonsense.
I don’t take a side in the right/left paradigm they both have their good and bad points as an ideology, however, in practice both are as corrupt as the other; but people who believe they can blame Obama for this have fallen victim to republican Kool-aid IMO.
Why does anyone think that you can blame Obama for anything? Does anyone think that Obama was really his own man?
That actually made me chuckle. Thanks.
A lot of downvotes, but they probably didn’t realize that actually was a direct quote from Truth Social. 😀
I’ll admit it, I didn’t see that because I didn’t read it all the way through; it was so fucking stupid I didn’t want to waste my time … joke’s on me, I guess.
How this moron got to be president is a sad statement about “democracy” and Lordy do we need reforms, because he’s the symptom—America’s genital wart—not the disease.
Lol I thought it was a crazy person posting and it was, POTUS is the punchline
It is against Trump’s nature to make a durable agreement and Iran knows that. Also diminishing any possibility of agreement is the 4 year election cycle in the US.
Who will enforce any agreement?
What institution? What country?
That is the prime reason an agreement is a long way off.
The longer Iran inflicts pain the closer they get to the election. If the blue wave takes both houses they may force Trump to disengage and then taco can blame the dems. Problem solved…
You assume that control of the executive branch departments will move to the house and senate
I will remind you there are no “Constitution Police”
And, it still doesn’t account for the flips possible in a 2 or 4 year cycle
The executive branch is the only one with guns. This was a serious oversight when the checks and balances were designed.
The amount of time they took to return that one page of nothing implies they’re trying to run out Trumpstien’s clock.
Bros, we are so cooked
Trump has already massively blown it. This is already baked in the cake:
The Seven Stages of the upcoming Economic Meltdown:
1. Market Anticipation : Commodity markets have already priced in fear, leading to significant increases in the cost of oil, gas, and fertilizer.
2. Consumer Impact : Price hikes are flowing through to consumers, directly affecting petrol and food costs.
3. Central Bank Errors : Argue that central banks will likely raise interest rates, which is the wrong response to an economy suffering from a shortage of demand rather than overheating.
4. Real Product Shortages : Mid-June is projected to be the point where absolute shortages of petrol, diesel, and energy hit, necessitating potential rationing .
5. Fractured Supply Chains : By early autumn, fuel shortages will likely disrupt supply chains, impacting food availability and raw material logistics.
6. Business Failures : Sustained disruption and inability to meet demand will likely lead to widespread business failures throughout the autumn and into Christmas.
7. Banking Crisis : The final stage involves a potential banking crisis, potentially exceeding the severity of 2008, as customers become unable to service debts due to business and job losses.
Reader Comment On my Blog.
I deleted the comment. But here it is
Alot ppl on this thread has the tds. Trump is closest thing to Jesus we have seen in modern world. He is Hated so viciously by so many just like Jesus was, yet he loves people so much and does so much for us his flock. HE is like a guiding hand protecting unknowing children as he shapes policies and makes decisions to enrich and better our futures every day.
That must be why people scream “Jesus Christ!” when they see what he’s gone and done now.
Someone told me they showed a magat the JC cartoon and they replied it was Ai despite being told it was on his Truth Social account.
“What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men, you just can’t reach. So you get what we had here last week — which is the way he wants it… well, he gets it”.
I hope Trump is a better man than the Jesus depicted in the Bible.
Beyond that, I don’t see your thesis standing up. If it all goes pear-shaped, then I’ll have to admit that you were right. But for now, it looks to me as if Trump knows what he is doing. Nobody should have thought that the Persian soldier class, united as they are by a religious principle (however silly it may be) would be pushovers. The Nazis weren’t pushovers. The Communists weren’t pushovers.
The inflation is the part that worries me the most. Trump didn’t cause the inflation: central bankers caused that. But his war may cause the inflation to come out in prices. (For the benefit of your readers who don’t know economics – which includes those who have studied it at universities – inflation, correctly defined, is the creation of new money. Rising prices, sooner or later, are the inevitable result.) Trump may not know enough economics to have seen the risk.
Trump has chosen to try to make the “democratic” world work. I don’t think it can be made to work – Reagan in America and Mrs. Thatcher in Britain have already tried during my lifetime – but he is giving it a try. The “democratic” world includes Israel, which was created by terrorism and murder directed against the Palestinian population. It also includes Germany and Japan, which were neutered by losing World War Two. The Americans under Joe Biden tried to extend it to include Russia, which isn’t going so well.
If Trump succeeds in this enterprise, Persia will no longer be able to support disorder (however justified) in the Middle East. Another thing that bothers me is that I see recent reports that Turkey is planning to take Persia’s place in supporting the Moslem terrorists. That will cause a bit of a rearrangement of alliances if it comes about.
The inflation is the part that worries me the most. Trump didn’t cause the inflation: central bankers caused that. But his war may cause the inflation to come out in prices. If it comes out in prices or wherever its still inflation and who started this war?
Arthur,
Central bankers didn’t cause “the inflation”. The primary role of the central bankers is to ensure the federal government has money to spend. When Donald Trump shut down the economy during COVID, handed out $1200 dollars to every nitwit who could breathe, and handed out hundreds of billions in “loans” to businesses that never had to be paid back, the central bank had to find ways to finance Trump’s wild spending, which they did. The Trump crash and mass unemployment caused interest rates to crash. Blaming the central bank for doing their job is just because you can’t bring yourself to blame the real culprit.
Secondly, money printing doesn’t necessarily cause inflation. A business has two choices to make in order to get at that money: 1. raise prices (inflation), or 2. increase production at the same price and sell more. You choose 1 in monopolistic markets. You are forced into 2 in competitive markets. Trump has done nothing to make our markets more competitive.
Ah, it’s been going on a bit longer than that. As I recall it, suspension of payment in gold happened at the beginning of World War One. That may have been excusable: I am not such a purist that I think you must operate a sound-money economy in the midst of a real war. But the failure to devalue and restore the gold standard at the end of the war set the stage for everything that has happened since.
I would express it more strongly than you do above, and say that the only real role of the central bank is to fund the government’s deficit, to make sure that there is never a situation where there is only 25c left in the Treasury. (That isn’t my formulation, by the way: I got it from some brilliant libertarian writer about fifty years ago.) The other “functions” of the central bank that they teach you about in school are essentially window dressing.
Your bit about money printing “not necessarily causing inflation” is nonsense. Money printing is inflation, properly defined. The priesthood prefer to point to the rising prices. That is describing the disease by the symptoms, not the causes.
Wowzaa. Please tell us that was just JoJo trolling again.
I don’t think that was a real person. You just don’t see that level of kissassery attached that that good of grammar.
I assume this is sane person baiting. But it is blasphemous.
Trump the rapist, Trump the racist, Trump the likely pedophile is like Jesus?
Compare Trump’s most important commandment of make money at all costs to Jesus’ most important commandment?
I think the better argument if you are religious is that he is the anti-Christ in that seemingly nothing that he does is remotely Christian.
The “likely” pedophile?
I despair that people this stupid walk amongst us. Even worse they believe others want to read this tripe.
Taco should take Buffett’s advice when you find yourself in a hole………..
“War with unknown consequences”
Most the consequences are known, for we’re getting a taste of them now – shortages in energy, fertilizer (and others), the ire of American allies which forces them to step away from America, supply side inflation going higher, grinding American munitions to zero, more deaths, and all while increasing the govt debt.
What isn’t known is if this continues (summit in China should give us an indication) if a nuke will be used or not.
It will take more than 1 nuke to kill 93 million people.
The Regime & IRGC is a lot less than 93 million. More like 5-10 million. The vast majority of Iranians will be happy to be rid of the Regime and its flunkies and be able to vote in a true democratic election again.
So just tell the 5-10 million to all congregate in one place and the rest to go far away. I’m sure they will cooperate for you.
Jojo didn’t think that one all the way through.
“Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.”
― Mark Twain
Trump’s Energy Secretary now talking about suspending the federal gas tax. That tells you that, after seeing the Iranian response, they don’t see gas prices coming down for a while. I don’t see suspending the federal gas tax as enough to make much difference to consumers.
Suspension of gas taxes is the type of reaction I expect from economic illiterates. It will only increase deficits and encourage gas consumption. We desperately need transmission of costs to the consumer both to slow drawdowns and ramp up the political pressure to stop this nonsense.
While you are correct, these types of decisions are based on political reality, not economics.
“the current phase of negotiations is focused exclusively on the cessation of hostilities in the region”
To me that means there will be no discussions about the nuclear issue at all until the US ends the blockade AND Israel completely stops its 24/7 attacks on Lebanon. Of course, there is no chance in hell that Israel will stop its Gaza-like attacks on Lebanon for any significant length of time. Israel wants the US to continue fighting Iran, so that is what must happen.
^this. “In the region”. Means Gaza and the West Bank and especially Lebanon.
And there is no chance in hell Iran is going to discuss the nuclear issue. That was attempted with Obama, and the US proved it was too untrustworthy to hold up its side of the bargain.
The Ukraine-Russia move. Trump is trying to finalize an agreement between Russia and the Ukraine. Details are sketchy, but an optimal solutiuon would be:
1.) The US removes sanctions on Russia.
2.) Russia can sell it’s oil, and is not declared the loser of its invasion of Ukraine.
3.) Ukraine pays for its own reconstruction and cannot join NATO.
This severely undermines Iran’s strategy of preventing oil ships from sailing out of the Gulf of Arabia. It allows the US to redirect military equipment from Ukraine to the US.
Trump isn’t finalizing any sort of agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Negotiations are effectively over. That war will be settled conclusively on the battlefield, with Russia the decisive victor.
Russian people are now openly criticizing Putin and the war. Recent May day parade looked like an Afghani tailgate party. If there is one outcome that is impossible it’s “Russia the decisive victor.” That possibility ended years ago after Russia’s failed drive to Kyiv.
Americans in our fading empire can take comfort in the fact that Russia is looking even more weak and pathetic than we are.
The Russians i know are pissed at Putin’s timidity.
I think it’s a legitimate criticism, although “timid” is a bit overstated. In retrospect (hopefully) we might admire how Russia managed to avoid escalation towards nuclear confrontation, while still managing to drain the entire West of military resources. But now that drone strikes continue using Baltic states’ airspace, it is also clear that these days are numbered. Russia is probably going to have to deliver a stronger message to reestablish deterrence that unfortunately brings us back to possibility of nuclear exchange.
Believe what you wish. Thankfully we won’t need to see a direct U.S. / Russia clash to prove you wrong. Until a few days ago Zelensky was threatening to strike the Victory Day parade, but Putin called Donald and delivered a message that shut that down. They were ready to destroy central Kiev and warned foreign diplomats to evaluate in case Zelensky went ahead.
Russia will collapse before it wins. That country is so broken right now, it will take decades to rebuild.
Putin beat you to the punch. He’s already rebuilt it. You literally have no clue what you are talking about.
Let’s hope so.
This severely undermines Ukraine’s position. What do they get out of it? I don’t think they’re done fighting. In fact they’re stepping up attacks inside Russia. They plan to build at least 2 million drones this year. They may even think they can topple Putin.
They are taking a 1000 Russians off the battlefield per day. Russia is already in population decline and now loses chunks of its productive people. It is too corrupt to change the way the economy is run. Internet has been mostly cut off for weeks now, and a bank run might have started.
Russia is good at bluffing and they know trump is an imbecil. Thats the only think keeping them in the wat atm.
lets look a bit closer https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-8-2026/
ISW is definitely not where you’d want to go to get an unbiased well-sourced analysis of events. It is a neocon outfit founded by Kimberly Kagan (whose brother Robert is married to Victoria Nuland, who has deep involvement with Ukraine going back even before the Maidan coup). ISW board of directors includes other notables who appear on the MSM championing U.S. war around the world – Jack Keane, David Petraeus, and Bill Kristol.
As an alternative I would recommend YouTube channels The Duran, Judge Napolitano, and The New Atlas (Brian Berletic). The first two have daily summary of events with analysis along with a number of great guests. Brian definitely has a more opinioned take with a focus on how we are witnessing execution of a long-term sequenced strategy to contain Russia and China. Also for military- specific analysis Simplicius the Thinker (on substack) offers useful insights.
The US does not have anything is Ukraine to redirect. Maybe they should go back into Afghanistan and pick up some of the equipment left there.
I predict he will simply claim it’s over and go home. He won’t let anyone talk about what happens next, just like that fake COVID that he found annoying.
The global economy needs the strait opened again. However, even if Iran and the US agree to a 30 day pause for negotiations to begin, I suspect Iran will still want to control who gets through the strait.
And even if they allow most traffic to exit, a lot of shipping firms will be reluctant to send ships back in.
Meanwhile Israel will be getting desperate to attack again while they still have US forces available.
It will be fascinating to see what happens in the next few weeks.
There is no agreement with Iran that will satisfy Trump’s Master in Israel.
True. But once the US military leaves, Israel will have to go it alone. And Trump is desperate to leave.
And Israel is incapable of going it alone against Iran.
Once the US military leaves I’d hate to be anywhere in or near that country. Virtually completely surrounded by countries they’ve made their enemies over decades. There will be revenge. A lot of it.
So something will happen that makes it impossible for the US military to leave, whatever it looks like. Unpleasant, that much is certain.
That makes no sense. If the countries in the Persian Gulf attack Iran, Iran would reply by destroying their infrastructure. So far, most of the infrastructure that Iran has hit had US investment and connections. But they could switch to attacking the rest.