Consumers Inflation expectations and overall concerns remain elevated.
Please consider the University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for May 2026.
Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged this month, coming in a scant 1.6 index points below April’s reading and comparable to the trough reached in June 2022. [It’s nearly 2 points below the then record low in 2022] While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back about 9%, owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases. Real income expectations continued a decline that began in March. About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.
Year-ahead inflation expectations softened a touch from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month. The current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war, along with all 2024 readings and the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations inched down from 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May. In 2024, values ranged between 2.8% and 3.2%, while in 2019-2020, they were consistently below 2.8%.
Gasoline was not surprising. But I found it interesting that nearly a third blame tariffs.
Tariffs are killing jobs and raising prices but mainstream media seldom portrays it that way.
Current Conditions vs Expectations
University of Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations
Inflation Expectations Percent
- One Year Ahead: 4.5 percent
- One Year Ahead 3-Month Moving Average: 4.3 percent
- Five Year Ahead: 3.4 percent
- Five Year Ahead 3-Month Moving Average: 3.4 percent
The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent.
Related Posts
April 9, 2026: Inflation Has Been Above the Fed’s Target for 5 Straight Years
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has been above 2 percent since March of 2021.
May 7, 2026: Trade Court Sends Trump’s Section 122 Tariffs Down the Drain
Gee, I get another Tariff “I Told You So.”
May 7, 2026: Whirlpool Sales Plunge, Warns of 4 Percent Price Hikes, Blames Inflation
Whirlpool eliminates its dividend and cut its forecast citing tariffs, inflation, and debt.
May 5, 2026: Manufacturing Is the Biggest Net Loser in Jobs, 5 Quarters Total
Here’s a breakdown of BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) by sector.
King TrumpCo will cancel any and all Economic data that Contradicts his Highness’s greatness.
I am actually surprised that he has not fired the entire agency by now.👈
The system is out of control but its just that no one realizes yet. It is only a matter of time before the inevitable downturn happens . This feels like 2000 or 2007 right now
Cas, we realize it and have been so for months. Mish has shown us.
little typo in the chart title…
The president will totally own the Great Global Equity, Gold, and Crypto Crash. The primary cause of the Great Crash is the terminal 5 to 6-8 May 2026 exhaustion gap valuation blow-off for extremely over-valued US and ACWI composite equity assets – propelled by last gasp expansion of ongoing (and defaulting and reordering) US and Chinese bad private and corporate debt. The true bad-private-corporate-debt and peak-valuation cause will be supplanted by the obvious gasoline and tariff inflation stress rationale and the post hoc ergo propter hoc logic of causation that the initiation of presidential tariff and war policies have temporally directly correlated to the 18 Feb to 7 April 2025 5/12/13/8 day :: y/2-2.5y/2.5xy/1.6y peak to nadir fractal decay series (illegal tariff chaos initiation day) and the 25 Feb 2026 to 30 Mar 2026 5/13/8 day : y/2.5y/1.6y peak to nadir fractal decay series(United Nation’s illegal Iran War chaos initiation day). This weekend ‘something’ will happen in the gulf to ‘trigger’ the naturally occurring commencement of 2nd Fractal elevation of oil prices and the concurrent beginning of the Great Crash whose initial collapse nadir will end 24 June 2026. Will the collapse affect the president’s cult base numbers? Likely not: this all part of the grand strategy.
We are coming close to over 12hrs since the deadline expired (sign deal or the bombing starts again) and we see that Iran hasn’t been bombed.
I doubt there will be a trigger in the gulf this weekend (a military one) and the fact that the US and Iran exchanged fire once again today and it’s still seen as not breaking the ceasefire agreement seems to suggest no trigger will be pulled. If it did Trump would have Iran look from space as a “big glow” – his words not mine (and of course nuclear is always an option but not right now so his statement is for optics).
The Chinese summit is extremely important for this is where the US will learn where the BRICS stands on a lot of issues, including Iran. And attacking one of the premier founder’s vassal states (Iran) of the BRICS (China) before meeting them in their own country for high level trade talks and negotiations would be no different than cutting one’s own throat in front of them and thinking one live enough time to say something meaningful before dropping to the ground.
The world is moving past American exceptionalism now because by it’s own actions the world found out America wasn’t all that exceptional (and that’s putting it nicely). Thus the president of the United States – the lone king on the hill where no allies want to help – will eventually realize that he nor the might of America can stop the world moving on and away from America.
Iran standing, still today in defiance, is proof of this fact. Sure Iran could be nuked, but it wont change the fact that the world will no longer allow America to dictate the terms or influence single-handedly what the future will be for the world. It can either accept this or find its neck one day, and soon, hanging from a rope.
An horrific false flag attack (televised by design) causing a terrible loss of American lives could be the ticket to allowing a ground invasion.
We could sink an aircraft carrier and still have 13 left./s
And the other 12 are in poor shape. I have a Pal whose Dad is a higher-Up in the Navy and there are reports of degradation in much of our fleets.
Blocked toilets and sub par sprinkler systems in the kitchens show that ship infrastructure is failing. You wonder the state of the military hardware.
911 rescues America again by displaying the terror of defiance.
Except that IT was a false flag and there is just too much evidence with that South Tower collapse.
I have read the Engineering reports..it was TOO obvious.
Please elaborate
You wonder who was sending missiles at the Kurds
It is ironic that the US does not want Iran to have a nuclear bomb because they say they are “crazy” enough to use it, while the US keeps threatening to use it. Iran continues to appear to be the sane adult in the room.
After this past Tuesday’s primaries in the US it will be interesting to see if/how Republican behavior changes. I’d guess that turnout sucked.
Are you the one who pegged April 24 as the lasting market high? The vibe rhymes.
I heard $12-$13 trillion was created out of thin air during the Covid scam (2020-2023) which was actually a financial system bailout in disguise.
That amount of money created a fake “prosperity” that lasted what, about 5-6 years? Price levels are 40% higher and millions were ousted from the ever shrinking middle class.
What trick will they pull out their hat this time to prevent financial collapse? (almost happened in late 2019.)
World War III? A new “virus”? I hear stories coming out about a new deadly one. How convenient.
Many of Georgia Gammon’s guests were describing this as it was unfolding 4Q 2018 – 1Q 2020, specifically the repo market. The lockdowns were keep that money from the rabble as long as possible.
The money started flowing in September, Covid did not hit until January. You are correct that the repo market was being juiced before the pandemic hit.
The Feds balance sheet is rising right now in a similar QE pattern.
Correct. There was stuff the Fed was doing in the fall of 2019 to bail out the repo markets.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/what-happened-in-money-markets-in-september-2019-20200227.html
I recall a podcast talking about the “REPO WINDOW SLAMMING SHUT.” ALL hidden from plain view.
Yes, I listen to George as well. ALL hidden in plain sight.
Covid-19 was the biggest sham in all of the world’s history other than WWII.
Gasoline Price Trends Over the Past 18 Years. Gasoline prices have experienced fluctuations.
> Historical Price Overview:
2008 = $4.11
2012 = $3.79
2014 = $3.36
2022 = $4.33
>> So now in 2026 @ $4.31, Consumer Sentiment Loss is being used as an excuse/reason, along with Tariffs, of all choices, for high Gas Prices? Did people complain of high gas prices in 2008? I believe it was driven by economic hardship. How about 2012 (only up .50 total I think) & 2014? I believe that was driven by conflicts with IRAQ, Hey in 2022 is was at $4.33!! Oh wait, that’s a different Narrative, as it was blamed on the Russia & Ukraine War. Maybe just massive fluctuations, for all sorts of various reasons, is the culprit? Just that simple…
The day of the election regular gas was $2.69. Today at the same station it is $4.99.
Sorry to burst your version of cherry picking, but mine tells the Trump term 2 horror show a little more accurately!
It gets worse from here!
I wonder if there is a way to track 401 k contributions. Seems that might be an indicator on how middle and upper class are actually doing. If the have the disposable income to contribute.
401 k contributions are inflationary relative to the stonk market. The flow is “in no matter what” and wages are inflating right now.
Baby boomer outflows are rising, but not fast as first or second homes are sold to provide retirement liquidity first. Downsizing is real for the boomers!
Wages are real for the minions and cannon fodder.
As usual Frosty “get’s it”
Also, the “real estate only goes up crowd” is on the verge of an awakening as Boomers in the mid-west (highest population of “olds”) and elsewhere begin to cash out and move to warmer climes AND downsize.
“Google searches for “can’t sell my house” hit an all time high last month surpassing the peak of the crash of 2008. Housing sales have dropped by 32% from 2020 to 2026 while supply has spiked. Realtors have been warning of a massive slowdown, with many sellers refusing to read the room and cut prices as they struggle to find interested buyers.
The problem is, NO ONE wants to buy a house for $600,000 when they know it’s only going to be worth $250,000 in a few years. In the end, the speculators are left holding the bag and there’s only two options left – Put their excess homes on the rental market, or, cut their prices dramatically and take the loss. I believe this is going to start happening in an accelerated fashion within the next year, even if there is a government or central bank intervention.”
Gold, Debt And The Inevitable Global Housing Market Crash
Or “nobody in their right mind wants to live in North Dakota.”
2008: Surging demand from China was driving record low inventories coupled with a declining US dollar due to the US financial bailouts after the housing crash.
2012: Initial US sanctions on Iranian oil lead to fears of supply disruptions.
2014: Surging US fracking production due to increased investment from the 2008 spike eventually caused a collapse in price. The price collapse caused fracking companies to collapse, and again, a fear of supply disruptions.
2022: Global COVID shutdowns caused global travel and work to collapse, causing initially wild overproduction of petroleum products. Remember the day the WTI actually went negative? This forced a massive reduction in global reduction in supply. Once the economy was fully reopened in 2021, long pent-up travel desires caused demand to explode, and global producers could not keep pace, so prices initially exploded. This allowed Republican controlled media to blame price surges on the then Democratic administration as opposed to the previous administration’s overreaction to COVID, leading to:
2026: US military attacks on Iran lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, something the incompetent US administration didn’t have the foresight to predict. The loss of 20% of global production continues to cause the greatest supply reduction in history, leading to sharp increases in prices, initially in Asia, but quickly spreading globally.
Moral of the story: supply and demand are real things. And the US continues to decline in competence and capability over time due to the population looking to mass media for information as opposed to personal education from reliable sources.
Thank you for those prior year explanations to further help explain it better.
– 2026: US military attacks on Iran lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, something the incompetent US administration didn’t have the foresight to predict. > They had to see it as a possibility, but perhaps thought it would be more of a last resort, and not so quickly done and so ferociously.
– The loss of 20% of global production continues to cause the greatest supply reduction in history, leading to sharp increases in prices, initially in Asia, but quickly spreading globally. > Now This they must not have had the foresight to see. It was that, or they were arrogant in how easy they could simply take it over. In time they did, so to speak, but still less than expectations imo.
– Moral of the story: supply and demand are real things. And the US continues to decline in competence and capability over time due to the population looking to mass media for information as opposed to personal education from reliable sources. > Spot On! Even attempts at seeking out a counter balance of information seem rare these days.
>> As far as incompetence by this Administration, I do see a bit of reluctance to change direction in many cases. I also see an unnecessary level of bloviating, which William Gibbs McAdoo, compared it to “an army of pompous phrases moving over the landscape in search of an idea.” I like this quote!!
When will consumers getting their tariff refund?
More important is when will importers get their refunds?
🙄
Didn’t you feel it being jammed into your butt?
The tariff yes, the refund hasn’t arrived yet.
Trump and Rubio are still standing around, telling reporters that Iran is going to get back to them Friday with a response to their proposal. It is way into Saturday already in Iran, I don’t think it will happen tonight. Looks like Trump and Rubio got stood up. At least they have each other to be with tonight.
Where is the disconnect? Gas prices up, which should suck money out of peoples pockets, sentiment is down, if you listen to the energy people there is a big disaster just waiting when the stockpiles run out, yet hiring seems to be up and the market is up. Somewhere I read it was great just until Covid lock downs came along, is it really just a matter of being great until it isn’t? If the market is a forward pricing machine, how can this be so?
The market is an insider trading machine now. To play, you have to guess the pumps and dumps.
Q: Are you considering going back to Project Freedom now that gas prices are more than $4.50?
TRUMP: No. Gas prices have come down today. Have you looked? They came down very substantially today. The stock market is way up.
In other news, the chocolate ration was increased to 20 grams.
Nice…
“Consumers cite gasoline and tariffs.” In other words, consumers “cite” the stupid Iran war and Trump’s economic illiteracy. Add to that the into-your-face corruption of the Trump administration and the DOJ’s Epstein cover up, and you have a recipe for a Republican meltdown in November.
and those that use SNAP Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins: “Before, if you had jerky hanging there, that counted for a protein. But no more. So we’re moving the people off of SNAP that shouldn’t be on. No more soda. No more junk food.” Geez! If a SNAP recipient buys a steak (for a special meal), they’re criticized for buying expensive food using taxpayer funds. If a SNAP recipient buys jerky (or anything that someone considers to be “junk food”), they’re criticized for the quality of the food they buy. They can’t win. https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4llrhdclvdlmmynkwsmg5tdc/post/3mldwu53xm42t?ref_src=embed&ref_url=https%253A%252F%252Fcrooksandliars.com%252F2026%252F05%252Fag-sec-brooke-rollins-solves-hunger-no
If junk food is bad for them, why is it sold to anybody? Is poisoning yourself a privilege of the wealthy?
Yeah but republican gerrymandering should take care of that. Plus most republicans would never vote for a dem. No matter how bad it gets.
Big blue wave and control of the Senate
It may be the only thing that can save the USA.
Mish i sure hope so. Looks like maybe more gerrymandering on the republican side might be in the works. . Hard for me to put into words. But i feel something big coming to a head. The republican party has a lot of common interest to maintain power. Besides trump the very wealthy fear higher taxes and the epstien files. As you go down the list there are the influencers / conservative talk media and your politicians who stand to profit. From division. Lets not forget russia and china who will benefit from a weaker us.
At some point they will only need the true believers to stay elected.
As an independent Im not a fan of the democratic party either. But we have serious issues that need to be addressed as a nation. The republican party only seems to care about consolidating power. My hope is the dems retake power move to the center.
consumer sentiment doesn’t seem to correlate to anything tangible. they keep spending.then it improves. then worsens.
The vast majority have no idea what’s going on around them. They just have feelings, and react.
You just described 95% of the commentators on this blog…lolz
Think its spending more and getting less
regarding consumers: There are plenty of street drugs available
https://theintercept.com/2026/05/04/trump-boat-strikes-fentanyl-cocaine-drug-supply/
Another dog and pony show from the chief clown? I’m shocked! MAGA morons told us the border was 1000% secure and there’s no flow of “illegals” or drugs anymore.
according to a Trump cabinet members wife we live in a pornhub world
https://www.jalopnik.com/2168304/transportation-secretary-took-7-month-road-trip-because-of-pornhub/
Iiiiits a small world aaaafter alll…..
Unlike the DOJ and Trump administration, Pornhub doesn’t tolerate pedophiles.
Well, Kristi Noem could make a fortune on OnlyFans or making adult movies or whatever.
She’s clearly ugly under all the paint, and she don’t have anything in those jeans but bones… her market would be limited to anorexia and botched plastic surgery fetishists.
I would, but that’s no recommendation. as long as she kept her mouth shut. Leavitt too. Not sure about Bondi.
I’d do a Bondy and Conway three way. I have a kink for closing-time-mirage girls.
It’s 2007 all over again. In 2007, the stock market was soaring to all time highs, everything was awesome until it wasn’t.
From August 2007:
https://mishtalk.com/uncategorized/consumer-sentiment-vs-gasoline-prices/
From May 2008:
https://mishtalk.com/uncategorized/consumer-sentiment-is-the-worst-yet-to-come/
From October 2008:
https://mishtalk.com/uncategorized/leading-indicators-at-33-year-low-consumer-sentiment-drops-most-on-record/
Current readings are far below recession levels shown for that article. I’ve stopped paying attention to the man behind the curtain. We’re in recession, dammit!
The taco economy. The billionaires have never had it so good. Not so for mid and lower classes in today’s world.
The stock market reflects a rational exuberance by the billionaires…
and the disconnect between the classes.
Got
MilkBallroom?The billionaires are the only ones who matter. Not the peons.
They should all just get reborn to wealthy parents.
So what? https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/content/pic8832ba0743b341b5a430ecb5bd4ef8bb.png
The insightful part is 2007 thru 2010 on that chart.