If it feels like you are not getting ahead, it’s because you aren’t. Six charts. 
Inflation has accelerated to the upside in March and April. Wages have not kept up with inflation.
The BLS Real Earnings Report shows real (inflation adjusted) wages have declined again.
All employees: Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
From April 2025 to April 2026, real average hourly earnings decreased 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted.
Production and nonsupervisory employees: Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees decreased 0.3 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.7 percent in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
I calculate the numbers myself and sometime vary by 0.1 percentage points due to rounding.
Real vs Nominal Hourly Earnings Detail
Real vs Nominal Hourly Earnings Year-Over-Year
- Private: 3.43 Percent
- Real Private: -0.2( BLS -0.3)
- Production and Nonsupervisory: 3.67 Percent
- Real Production and Nonsupervisory: -0.2( BLS -0.2)
Real Average Hourly Earnings Dollars Per Hour Detail
I calculate total private real earnings per hour in April at $11.25, and $9.89 for production and nonsupervisory workers. Both match the BLS.
Since January of 2025, total private real earnings are up by $0.01. Production and nonsupervisory workers have gained $0.04.
Both sets assume you believe BLS inflation calculations. My title called this no growth. But if you insist on a penny or four, and accept BLS inflation calculations, OK, it’s positive.
Real Hourly Earnings Year-Over-Year Detail
Real Hourly Earnings Year-Over-Year Percent Changes
- Total Private: -0.20 percent (BLS says -0.30), Lowest since April 2023
- Production and Nonsupervisory: -0.20 percent, Lowest since February 2023
Let’s put this all into perspective with one key chart.
Nominal and Real Average Hourly Earnings Since 1964
The data series for total private does not start until March of 2006. So let’s focus on the long-term data.
In nominal terms, production and nonsupervisory wages rose from $2.50 t $31.94.
$2.50 in 1964 was worth $8.04 in real terms. In real terms wages rose from $8.04 to $10.00.
Production & Nonsupervisory Workers Annualized Growth
| Measure | 1964 Value | April 2026 Value | Annualized Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | $2.50 | $31.94 | +4.19% per year |
| Real (1982-84 dollars) | $8.04 | $10.00 | +0.35% per year |
These are actual BLS numbers. Happy with +0.35% per year on average?
Bear in mind, the CPI does include any increase in property taxes, homeowners insurance, or the price of the home itself in its measure of inflation.
Moreover, the BLS weights food at home vs food away from home inaccurately, and it does not factor in tip inflation.
The average person is not really getting ahead.
Trump Not at All Concerned
But hey, have you looked at the DOW?
Inflation benefits the asset holders and those with first access to money: The banks, the wealthy, the politically connected, and governments via taxation.
Everyone else loses. And that’s why so many people are miserable.
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Trump told reporters his”policies are working incredibly.” What else do we need to know?
If you make your money from doing work that benefits anyone but the wealthy, You Don’t Matter.
Does anyone even believe all the BS statistics the government puts out?
‘They’ve’ been saying wages have kept up with inflation since 2020. Lies. May be true for the top 40%, but not the bottom 60%. You wouldn’t have such widespread discontent if wages actually kept up with inflation.
Federal workers got a 1% raise this year from Trump and NO locality pay increase. MAGA cheers, but wait until they need help from a federal worker and find that they can’t get help because all the good dedicated workers left Federal service and all you have are underpaid contractors. You get what you pay for. You reap what you sow.
I thought this MoFo had declared victory over Iran a doze times already.
If only people had listened to this guy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRndMiVIB-w
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
And this is one of the better stats since the reign to taco began.