Inflation in April was another scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.
The BLS reports the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The BLS rounds to 1 decimal point. I show 2 decimal places
CPI Month-Over-Month
- All Items: 0.64 percent
- All Items Excluding Food and Energy: 0.38 percent
- Food and Beverage: 0.49 percent
- Shelter: 0.61 percent
- Owners’ Equivalent Rent: 0.53
- Rent of Primary Residence: 0.55
- Medical Care Services: 0.00 percent
- Medical Care Commodities: -0.35 percent
- Energy: 3.81 percent
- Gasoline: 5.44 percent
- Food at Home: 0.68 percent
- Food Away from Home: 0.23
This is structurally much worse that last month’s 0.87 percent rise because it is very broad based.
This month, everything jumped but medical.
CPI Month-Over-Month Energy, Gasoline, Utilities
Energy, Gasoline, Utilities and Fuel Month-Over-Month
- Energy: 3.81 percent
- Gasoline: 5.44 percent
- Utilities and Fuel: 1.38
These increases are on top of last month’s huge leaps.
CPI and PCE Year-Over-Year Percent Change
3.8 percent is the highest year-over-year inflation since 4.0 percent in May of 2023.
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change Major Categories
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change Major Categories
- All Items: 3.8 percent
- All Items Excluding Food and Energy: 2.8 percent
- Food and Beverage: 3.1 percent (13.56 percent of CPI)
- Shelter: 3.0 percent (35.32 percent of CPI)
- Medical Care Services: 3.2 percent (6.89 percent of CPI)
- Utilities and Fuel: 6.0 percent
- Energy: 17.9 percent (7.09 percent) of CPI
CPI Year-Over-Year Select Components
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Select Categories
- All Items: 3.8 percent
- Medical Care Services: 3.2 percent
- Utilities and Fuel: 6.0 percent
- Energy: 17.9 percent of CPI
- Gasoline: 18.9 percent of CPI
Hot Water Soup
This month’s special is hot water soup. I have a tribute.
Small Price to Pay
Hot water soup is a small price to pay for giving Iran control of the strait.
Wait! What?
Never mind, focus on the mission.
Q: What’s the Mission?
A: Our mission is to return the strait to where it was before we started this war.
That’s going spectacularly because Iran has no cards.
Truth Social: The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate! President DONALD J. TRUMP
I’m sure glad for that. Imagine if Iran had cards.
Powerful Reset
Truth Social: WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! President DJT
On occasion, usually by accident, Trump manages to tell the truth.
Giving Iran control of the strait while it collects tolls paid in cyrpto and yuan, coupled with punishing everyone with asinine tariffs, was indeed the most powerful (albeit stupid) global reset combination in decades.
Patience Limited
On March 30, 2026, I noted Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits
Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.
Powell’s warning was aimed straight at Trump. But that’s OK because Powell is no longer Fed Chair.
Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair.
Baptism of Fire Coming Up
The May PCE numbers are due June 10. That’s just in time for Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
Trump expects Warsh to deliver a rate cut. I believe the Fed bias will be shift to tighten from neutral.
Warsh’s first press conference rates to be a real hoot.
Yesterday, I noted Cleveland Fed CPI and PCE Forecast for Next Two Months Is an Inflation Disaster
Month-Over-Month Inflation Nowcast
- April CPI: 0.45 percent
- April Core CPI: 0.21 percent
Year-Over-Year Inflation Nowcast
- April CPI: 3.56 percent
- April Core CPI: 2.56 percent
It appears the Cleveland Fed was more than a tad bit optimistic for today.
Finally, please consider Oil Market Will Lose 100 Million Barrels a Week if Hormuz Remains Closed
Trump says the cease-fire is on life support. So what?
When year-over year inflation surges for at least two more months, what will Warsh do about it?
The Fed is behind the curve… again. They are falsely claiming transitory… again. According to the two year Treasury yield, they are at least one quarter point rate hike behind the curve.
My gasoline prices are up far higher than the 5.44 monthly or 6% yearly.
More like 80% annualized.
Agent Orange can lie to himself and his MAGA idiots but the rest of us are wondering how on earth the republicans in congress and the senate will support this disgrace?
Warsh is probably fearful of raising rates, but if he raises them sharply like Volker did, he’ll look like he means business keeping inflation under control.
They know what happened to Carter. He got blamed for Nixon and Ford’s inflation. In actuality, he picked Volcker to end Nixon and Ford’s inflation; Volcker’s rate increases caused a recession; the voters blamed Carter and removed him from office and we got Reagan and Artie Laughter: 38 billion dollars ago. No, he won’t be raising rates.
Trump Brags That His AG ‘Kept Me Out Of Jail For Years’
Thing is if this situation with Iran, and the blockade persists gas peices will be double what they are now by years end.
Also I hear a lot of people talk about voting this midterm: (1) it wont solve anything in fact it might make it worse in that govt energy will be focused on solving the Trump problem and not the problems citizens are facing (like inflation); and (2) do you actually think midterms will happen if this persists, especially if ground troops are sent in?
It doesn’t matter, your goose is cooked. The only solution is a good exit strategy. I was mocked for advocating an exit strategy now all the functioning brains are looking for one.
But here’s the funny thing, today’s inflation will be “good times” compared to what’s coming circa 2030. Go ahead and mock me for making that prediction and then get back to me in 2030 and beyond when 80 million geezers are draining everything with their free money handouts and healthcare. Oh and 40 million GenXers right behind them so while the geezers will die off, they’ll be replaced by GenX then Millennials all the while the population shrinks.
Got exit strategy?
“Go ahead and mock me for making that prediction…”
I’m not a person who mocks others as I belive this is a discussion and in a discussion everyone has their own view just like an opinion. I’m not against people expressing their view or opinion, generally.
So I’m not sure who you’re pointing a finger to in that statement.
I think they’re doing un-advertised QE. I read the balance sheet was expanding again.
Unadvertised QE essentially started in Nov-Dec last year when liquidity issues started to arise.
QE essentially started in Nov-Dec last year when liquidity issues started to arise.
They are not hiding it – although they are not advertising it either.
The best question is what comes next: a soft landing, slowflation, stagflation, and/or a liquidity crisis somewhere in the world.
It’s part of Powell’s “ample reserves” policy and it’s not new. Powell has been a disaster as Fed chair and I am not sorry to see him out. Warsh has said he will act very differently – we’ll see.
“Just about everything is down. They use the word affordability — it’s a Democrat hoax. They’re the ones who drove the prices up.”
DJT December 2025
Nothing less than theft and armed bigots at all polling places will deliver the Republican administration a win at midterms
Already queued up:
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-election-integrity-army-midterms-b2973934.html
You mean the brown shirts (or ICE) picking folks out of the line.
Maybe a new (strong!) name will work better..
The discussions about possibly replacing “Operation Epic Fury” with “Operation Sledgehammer” underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war started on Feb. 28, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that requires congressional authorization for war.
I feel second-hand embarrassment from this! How can these morons be my leaders?
Because morons are our neighbors, and we let them enforce their stupidity on us.
They are human. They are not people.
Operation TACO 1 … infinity is the only name that really describes them.
The fantasies that the maga morons worship are hitting the buzzsaw of reality
Let them suffer until they finally figure it out
That level of stupid NEVER figures it out. They just rage at the cruel, cruel world.
Or switch to Kamala. Lol
Ah, here’s one now, right on cue.
Problem is, we’re all suffering with them.
Enjoy the manipulated (far below what they should be) oil prices while they last.
Gasoline is now $6 a gallon in California. That will seem cheap by July 4th. The rest of the country should ‘enjoy’ the sub $5 gas prices while they last.
Just like in 2022, the high oil and diesel prices will cause goods and service prices to rise all throughout the entire economy since higher oil prices affect just about everything the economy produces.
Party like it’s May 2026, as we are still in what will be considered the good times months or years from now. (Am I being too pessimistic? Or not….)
The phrase you need to keep an eye on is “tank bottoms” and I’m not talking about beach wear.
https://www.kpler.com/ja-jp/blog/cushing-inventories-to-test-tank-bottoms-curbing-record-us-crude-exports
Trump brushes off Iran war’s cost at home: ‘I don’t think about American financial situation’
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-war-cost-economy-nuclear-weapons-b2975285.html
When a politician tells voters point blank that he does not give a rat’s ass about them, believe him.
yeah but MAGA doesn’t care. tey say short term financial pain to ensure they. don’t get nuked. As if anyone would waste a nuke on where they live.
That’s MAGA’s kink. Ignore me harder, daddy!
Trump loves the uneducated!
… and their minor children.
Always remember, the best is yet to come. And, never forget to thank the imbeciles who voted for this abject idiot instead of Kamala, who actually came with a functional cabinet instead of this array of butt kissing clowns.
Kamala most likely would have also started a war on Iran at the behest of Israel, albeit with less Eagle Flag Freedom rhetoric and more Human Rights Talk.
I take it you prefer Trump’s game of chicken with people who have not once ever lost a game of chicken? What could possibly go wrong with Trump at the helm?!
I uttered not a syllable in praise of Trump.I did not vote for the clown in 2016. I did not vote for him in 2020. I did not vote for him in 2024. I also refused to vote for Team D.
I do not regret any of these choices.
Well, enjoy whatever satisfaction helping to elect Trump gives you. I’m sure it taught the Dems a lesson.
As I pointed out Harris likely would have given us the same war. Don’t blame me for refusing to vote for a loathsome candidate. Hell, exist polls indicate that had Harris spoken up on the genocide in Gaza, she likely would have won.
She didn’t. That’s on her. She still doesn’t, even though she is now a private citizen beholden to nobody. That is also on her. Not on me.
Enough of your vote-shaming. Not to mention, I live in a fire-engine red state.
did Netanyahu spend the night sleeping in Kamala’s son in laws bed?
I certainly understand your point, and i’d usually be inclined to agree with you.
but Trump is a whole nother level of incompetent.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/kamala-harris-dnc-release-autopsy-report-2024-campaign-rcna343453
““I don’t know how she runs from Israel, and I don’t know how she runs from Biden, and she’s not good at threading the needle,” said a prominent Harris donor who still talks to her. “If she’s the lead horse, it will be easy to cut her legs. She comes with baggage.”
“The person close to Harris previewed a potential pivot. She is signaling privately that she has more to say about the Middle East now that she is freed from the Biden White House policy, this person said, adding that she is likely to do so after the midterm elections. That could be done from the perspective of a party elder or from the perspective of a candidate seeking votes, this person said.”
Yawn. There’s nothing stopping her from speaking up right now.
She is cut from the same neocon cloth as Trump and the rest of them.
We need new, younger leaders, beholden to no one and nothing.
This is a nonsense position. Every president except Trump has resisted Netanyahu’s “they’ll have a bomb in two weeks” plea. Every one of them has otherwise supported Israel. Unlike Trump they (and I believe Kamala too,) would not be surrounded by idiots/Israeli/Russian agents like Hegseth, Kushner and Witkoff. Certainly the Dems have made foreign policy mistakes (overthrowing Gadafi, supporting the Syrian opposition (was a pretty big one,) not cutting Afghanistan off, being too cautious in helping Ukraine,) but single highhandedly and for no good reason getting the Straight of Hormuz closed, destroying relationships with allies around the world, doing his best to get the dollar replaced as reserve currency (or by no reserve currency,) Trump is following an empire ending course.
Cautious helping Ukraine!?!? Wow!
Kamala stood idly by, hugging Netanyahu as he perpetrated genocide. But sure, this time, she’d stand firm.
For that matter, what’s preventing her from speaking up right now?
Trump is awful but it’s lunacy to think Kamala would have been any better.
They’re all wildly corrupt, self absorbed grifters. Mostly drunk perverts.
The only thing that’s worse than our politicians are those who think they can tell the difference between them.
Kamala didn’t need to start this to distract from evidence of her raping children.
Did she or did she not take large contributions from Israel? It’s not rhetorical, I’m asking.
Did Biden? Did Obama? Did Bush? Yet somehow they all resisted Netanyahu’s “Iran is two weeks away” nonsense. Trump is another level of easily manipulated by appealing to his gargantuan ego, lack of mental capacity and insecurities. “you’ll look weak if you don’t attack them, it’ll be easy, 4 or 5 days at most. No, no, there’s no chance they’ll block the straight. Consider it a favor to me.” So yes, Kamala isn’t great but I’d take my chances with her or even a Weekend At Bernie’s Biden or a yellow dog before ever voting for Trump.
I’m sure she did. So have hundreds of other people in our government, for decades.
None of them have attacked Iran and removed 20% of the world’s oil supply.
One side rapes children…
Politicians from Team R as well as Team D are prominently named in The Epstein Files.
It’s not as if one side is principled and the other not. Both are stocked with sociopaths.
no one is arguing that there is a good side and a bad side to our politicians.
Trump is singularity easily manipulated and dumb as dog shit.
Kamala, the dumb b#$ch would still have not tariffed uninhabited islands.
it has nothing to do with either side’s morality.
Harris would have done other stupid things.
That said, you’re trying to change the subject.
harrris would have done other stupid things.
Yes, that is the whole point. Harris would have done other things then Trump.
Other *stupid* things. Don’t misquote me.
Or she would have done the same stupid things, but for different reasons.
Let’s accept your premise that they’re all corrupt (although it’s hard to imagine Kamala starting her own meme coin or fleecing her followers with a bogus cell phone offer but, OK, maybe.) The difference though is She’s got a brain that if it doesn’t understand the international order of alliances, trade agreement and the US role in the world, someone on her staff would understand it, explain it and she’s smart enough to understand the explanation. On the other hand we have what we have now, an overgrown child who only thinks in terms of win / loose, and if he’s not totally beholden to foreign authoritarians he’s a wanabe and easily manipulated by them when they appeal to his fragile ego and present him with medals and statues.
Sort of like how the staff talked Biden into supporting the genocide in Gaza.
After all, we were duly assured that it didn’t matter that Biden was a halfwit.
Also thank the people who stayed home to teach the Dems a lesson.
the voters dont matter.
THE MATCHES ARE PRE DETERMINED IN ADVANCE.
thats what the gerrymandering bru haha is all about. the democrat candidate for president was going to win my state no matter who it was
And i understand its more nuanced than i make it appear but Im painting in bold strokes because truly: We’re fucked.
US budget watchdog estimates Golden Dome will cost $1.2T
Just add it to the ongoing tab right?
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-budget-watchdog-estimates-golden-dome-will-cost-12-trillion-well-above-2026-05-12/
Golden Dome will never be completed and never work. The project is just a grift. Similar to the millions being spend to paint the reflecting pool blue.
Of course. Just a backdoor lift to Israel and an opportunity for a little skim.
Golden Dome is worse than a grift. The other side cannot sit idle and risk seeing their offensive capability neutralized. That would give the US a first strike capability against them. Golden Dome will incite an offensive nuclear arms race, more missiles and warheads. At the end of the day we will be both poorer and less secure.
… and will only work over Maralago.
That very high 0.7 percent monthly April inflation number for groceries (“food at home”) confirms what alert shoppers have been feeling recently. Inflation is heating up, and not only at the gas stations. Imagine where we would be headed if Powell and his colleagues would have given in to Trump’s economically illiterate call for lower Fed rates.
I like my inflation stats like I like my women: super hot
~ djt
TAMALE – Trump Always Makes America Look Embarrassing
Golf clap.
bitter and ice cold.
My crystal ball tells me at this summer’s end, possibly sooner, we might be looking back at today’s report hoping we could return to these “hot” numbers. I do not see much of substance that would curb this increasing trend. While QE may be tame for now, money creation via fractional reserve banking is on a steady upward slope, (see link for a chart). The one thing that could impact inflation is debt defaults acting opposite of loan creation to contract money supply. This force will likely be nulled by bailouts and QE to infinity to finance ever-increasing government profligacy.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR
What a mess!
Did someone say summer? Cruel summer?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ml3nyww80
The problem is the idiots we need as our allies have been educationally bankrupted by the Starve the Beast strategy, Grover Norquist’s proudest baby. Even that statement flies over most heads these days.
Looking at the inflation graph of the 2020’s, it reminds me of the double hump of inflation in the 1970’s. Instead of the first oil shock inflation hump, we had the COVID inflation hump. Then history repeated itself, and the Fed tightened, but not high or long enough to get back to baseline (in the mid 1970’s the Fed got inflation down to around 5%, this time it got inflation down to the 3% range). Then comes the second inflation hump, both times due to an oil shock. In the second hump in 1980 inflation got to 14%, necessitating the Fed to raise rates to 20% (twice in the early 80s) causing two recessions. I don’t expect inflation to go as high in this second hump (let’s say back to 8%), but does anyone think that Warsh would raise interest rates to say 10% to truly get this under control? I don’t (it would break the federal government). It’s going to get out of control. It took 40 years, but our politicians have been so astoundingly bad that they have put us in a situation for which there is no solution other than destruction of substantial wealth via inflation.
You are accurately describing the impossible fiscal situation we are in. I liken it to the slow-motion swirling in the bowl waiting for the flush to speed up and be completed. At 10% interest we would soon be at $4 trillion in debt service given the rapidly increasing debt and its short-term maturity. I disagree that the debt can be inflated away as I am not aware an example. I am aware that several times, cutting government expenses which left resources in the private sector did pull a government from fiscal collapse.
Private and public debt has brought significant economic activity forward recently, but without continuously expanding debt that activity will not be sustained in the private sector but for government most obligations will remain with inflation protection. Result is contracting private economy and its public sector funding when the public sector will need even more funding. This is a reason why we cannot inflate the debt problem away. Another is inflation is devaluing the dollar and with the dollar losing purchasing power, those lending to the government will demand higher interest rates to compensate, further increasing debt service. This is particularly bad when debt is held in short maturities, roughly requiring rolling over every three years or less and compounded by the expectation of rising interest rates applied to new debt.
I know it is not likely, but the only way out of our fiscal mess is to cut government spending below revenue or the debt continues to grow, and our mess gets worse, albeit possibly slower with gimmicks kicking the can down the road. Depending too much on increased taxes has the side effect of being a drag on the economy reducing tax revenue and adding to safety net expenditures, another reason inflation the debt away does not work. Further, since the fed was formed and income taxes initiated, federal revenues from taxation has never exceeded 20% of GDP per information from the federal reserve, no matter the tax rates or tax scheme. Currently revenue is around 17%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
LOL 10% yeah it would, $4TT payments on just the debt interest vs $7BB to spend total. That’s the “baddest math” there is.
Trump does not care. If gerrymandering does not work he has plans.
The brightest, most glowingest plans that were ever planned
Either monetary and fiscal policy changes to *actually* bring prices down ( market correction, no soft landing BS ) or socialists are going to win every election. That’s the reality. If socialists are artificially prevented from winning elections either within the democratic primaries or from MAGA Republican efforts to rig elections, then there will be a socialist revolution. The easiest path is just taking care of inflation and restoring price discovery in the market and sanity to the country. The kleptocratic monetary policy of the last 20 years is not sustainable. Warsh is very interesting because he’s expected to be a Trump lackey, but his personal philosophy is actually more hawkish. Still, I’m not hopeful. I expect them to keep squeezing market gains through currency debasement until there’s more violent outbursts and social unrest. I really think the powers that be will try to keep the music playing by application of sheer force against the lower classes when they lash out.
Project 2025 was a plan to usher in socialisim all along. They just didn’t know.
Maybe that’s the real 5D Chess Trump’s been playing all along. He’s a socialist accelerationist. Universal healthcare was one of the policies of his exploratory year 2000 presidential campaign.
“Yes, universal healthcare. What are we gonna do? Let people die in the streets?” – Donald J Trump
“I’m taking inflation to levels never seen before…many leaders thought this country was DEAD…now this country (and it’s inflation) are the HOTTEST ever”
Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!
Fat Orange Cheeto Dust Fingers
The irony of that statement is on existential levels! Trump too stupid to even think that through but how does one conclude it’s short term? What will it take to make that a “short term” outcome? And why is it an “international waterway” now? Maybe the Gulf of America should have stayed the Gulf of Mexico? lol.
Well okay, inflation is going to be bad and it’s well worth it to suffer a little because Trump’s returned manufacturing to the USA with tariffs, deported 20 million illegals, brought housing down, ended all wars, and brought prosperity to America! /s
Hey MAGA morons, how do you like the turd age?
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
They were trying to determine the flavor, and you’ve helped them out
This maga moron can use AI for you, since the strait is within Oman and Iran entirel:
The Strait of Hormuz is governed by specific international laws that protect global shipping: [1, 2, 3]
So “international strait status”, does that help or does it oil-slick-up the waters?
At the moment mined and threatened by Iran while Iran is blockaded by the U.S. in this “skirmish”. The latter doesn’t have the political capital to do what might work to remove the problem and at this point I question what our $1 trillion annually has bought us. Probably discombobulators, directed energy weapons and other such stuff that can’t or won’t be used. Russia bogged down by Ukraine, U.S. can’t control 21 miles of water with a very expensive navy. I suspect the other “super power” would be equally ineffective given my recent experience with hog-ring pliers and zip ties.
That exit location option set is getting pretty small.
Neither Iran nor Trump is a signatory to that UN rule.
Under regular rules there is no international passage.
There are those who will not see….
NEWSMAX: What do you say to constituents who say they can’t afford gas and food and have kids to feed?
REP. STUTZMAN: We have a strong, steady economy. We’re actually seeing tremendous growth from the work that President Trump has done with tariffs and trade policy.
They can put that on the table, and eat it!
Gosh, what a surprise !
So inflation, measured on the short term, is around 7%.
Gold reacted negatively for now. The reaction is short term to the Fed’s response. They are extremely unlikely not to lower rates, but the real danger lies in their inability to raise them.
The future looks shiny for gold. The Fed is trapped between fighting the monster of inflation or the monster how to fund the federal government going forward without printing.
Which monster will they choose? We already know the answer.
Long bonds and 10 year are going bonkers so doesn’t matter what the Fed does anyway.
Taco is just getting started in destroying the US economy.