Global observed crude levels are at record low levels. Implications are ominous. 
Global Crude Inventory Chart Notes
- Data is from JODI (through March 2026)
- April is based on the May IEA Oil Market Report
- May is preliminary estimate based on continued aggressive draw pace and industry reports (Exxon, etc.)
The JODI data contains 119 countries, some minor countries not reporting.
I downloaded the data, converted to Excel format and totaled the inventory reports by month to produce the above chart.
Oil Market Report
Please consider the IEA Oil Market Report for May 2026.
More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace. Benchmark oil prices have posted wild swings in response to conflicting signals on whether the United States and Iran will soon reach a deal to end the conflict, with North Sea Dated plunging from a high of $144/bbl to below $100/bbl before rebounding again. At the time of writing, the two countries remained at loggerheads over an accord to reopen the Strait and end the war, with North Sea Dated around $110/bbl.
With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 mb/d of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock. The current supply-demand gap is significantly smaller, however, as the market was already in surplus heading into the crisis while producers and consumers alike are responding to market signals.
While demand may swing back to growth towards the end of the year if a deal to end the war is agreed that allows flows through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually resume from 3Q26, as is assumed in this Report, supply will likely be slower to recover. As a result, the oil market remains in deficit until the final quarter of the year. With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period.
Key Points
- Global oil supply declined by a further 1.8 mb/d in April to 95.1 mb/d, taking total losses since February to 12.8 mb/d. Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. Higher production and exports from the Atlantic Basin provide some relief. Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 mb/d on average in 2026, to 102.2 mb/d.
- Refinery crude throughputs are forecast to plunge by 4.5 mb/d in 2Q26 to 78.7 mb/d, and by 1.6 mb/d to 82.3 mb/d for 2026 as a whole, as operators contend with infrastructure damage, export restrictions and lower feedstock availability. Refining margins remain at historically high levels, supported by record middle distillate cracks. Refiners are adapting to the crisis, with new trade flows emerging to compensate for lost Gulf product exports.
- Global observed oil inventories drew by 129 mb in March and by a further 117 mb in April, according to preliminary data. Continued disruptions to seaborne trade through the Strait of Hormuz saw on-land stocks drop by 170 mb (-5.7 mb/d) in April, while oil on water rebounded by 53 mb. OECD countries’ on-land stocks plummeted by 146 mb (-4.9 mb/d) while visible non-OECD stocks fell by 24
US Strategic Oil Reserves Weekly
US Strategic Oil Reserves Monthly
Data for the above charts is from the US Energy Information Agency.
The monthly preliminary estimates are from the EIA weekly numbers.
US weekly drawdowns are steep but the US started from a better point.
The Only Real Winner
Exxon CEO
“Commercial inventories of crude oil, of liquids, think petroleum, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they’ve all run down… We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels.
You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up. I mean, I think dated Brent, most people, well, a model would say dated Brent will shoot up. Once you get to that really low inventory level, up to $150, $160.
The models would tell you that. And then what happens is when the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance. Prices go so high, it becomes unaffordable. And that’s what happens. And so we’re at that level right now.
And I think crude being in this sort of $90 to $110 for the last whatever it is, six weeks, has really been mitigated by running down inventories. It can’t last forever.“
Question of the Day
Does anyone believe Iran does not understand this?
Time is on Iran’s side here.
Iran was supposed to fold in three days, then it was three weeks. Now, no one is sure what Iran’s storage capability even is.
Amusingly, we are discussing a time frame of 2.5 years.
But waiting Iran out is not an option because Iran has chosen to wait the US out.
Not only does Iran have a much higher tolerance for pain, oil inventories and drawdowns are at critical levels.
More Political Desperation May 31, 2026
Truth Social: Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively “chirping,” at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – It always does! President DJT
May 31, 2026, 11:02 PM
Trump is now blaming the “Dumocrats” for the stupid war that he started. It’s obvious to the world that he is the one desperate for a deal. Yet …
Frustrated Trump Ups Terms for a Deal with Iran
Yesterday, I commented Frustrated Trump Ups Terms for a Deal with Iran. What’s Going On?
Trump still has the same three options he has had since the ceasefire started on April 7 2026.
- Military Escalation
- Wait Iran Out
- Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
Netanyahu and warmongers like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham want trump to escalate, but it is Iran that holds escalation cards.
Iran has already proven it is willing to go after the regions desalinization plants. A big successful strike on Saudi Arabia would mean evacuation of the entire country.
Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
When you throw away every option that doesn’t work, you are left with options that will work.
That is option three, no matter how distasteful.
It’s all about leverage. And Trump has none.
Based on the Exxon comments, Trump has about 2-3 weeks to figure this out before oil starts blasting higher.
That’s why I am convinced there will be a deal, one that humiliates Trump.
For more on the likely terms of a deal, please see Hello. We Are Again Discussing the Terms of Trump’s Surrender to Iran
The Exxon CEO is perhaps the most prominent person to speak of demand destruction. That is the real long-term solution. It will be interesting to see it affects the USA , Europe , and Japan. A severe dose of it is affecting Cuba now and you can find news stories about it. I hear it is also affecting parts of the developing world, but those reports are harder to find.
People should be demanding much lower tariffs on Chinese EVs.
End the abusive relationship with the oil industry.
Nobody can say what’s going to happen but America should not be selling off stategic assets owned by all Americans like oil and gas. We will need it. That oil and gas is on our land and belongs to every American. Let’s keep it in America. And let’s build refineries so we can refine all the oil we pump from our country, so we are truly energy self-sufficient. We should not be selling off necessary natural resources that belong to all of us.
You do not own any drop of the oil. You’re just a pawn in a shell game of democracy played by the oligarchy that has ruled this country for 250 years.
Iran is collapsing now from the blockade….no imports including medicine, food, and everything else. America can get oil and we have the the influence to make decent deals with Canada, despite what Trump has said about them. We can get oil from other allies. It’s not that dire for the USA. Iran may be tough but they’re out of money, and many shops have shut down. That’s a very poor country and Trump can wait. He’s on his last term and if he can get Iran to capitulate, change regimes, surrender, his reputation goes up despite all the terrible things he’s done. He can wait it out. He’ll lose the mid-term elections but that was happening anyway. I think Trump will wait it out. Iran could very easily collapse.
Trump doesn’t care!
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/trump-iran-war-negotiations-oil-israel-interview.html
Trump said he wasn’t worried about oil prices, which spiked following a report that Iran will “completely block” the Strait of Hormuz in addition to halting negotiations with the U.S.
Trump told CNBC he was “going to ask” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “what’s going on with Lebanon.”
Doesn’t care if negotiation are over.
Doesn’t care if YOU have to pay more for gas.
Doesn’t care if YOU lose your job.
Doesn’t care if global economy collapses.
Does care if Israel not happy.
Any questions?
Israel is making sure that no agreement can be reached. I don’t need to talk to Netanyahu to figure that out, and I don’t care what the genocidal creep says.
Trumps goal is to not get busted in the epstien files.
He has a lot of wealthy people who dont want to get busted either. Backing him up.
Bibi promised him pedos go to heaven if they support israil .
All just naked propaganda; no evidence, no data.
All part of the same closed Western MSM public influence bubble.
.
It’s getting to be like Iran’s nuclear bomb.
First time they spoke about the imminent bomb was 1984.
Since then it’s been repeated ad infinitum that it’s a matter of days, weeks, months.
All of this is just bogus fodder for the public.
If this situation persists, it is going a LOT higher than $150.
We had $140+ back in 2008 with underlying conditions nowhere near as bad as this. $140+ in 2008 would equal at least $200 now, so think closer to $250-$300 as a possible/likely scenario.
Maybe the US should bomb Israel?
Ain’t no maybe about it.
I would not necessarily start by bombing them, but I would give them a whole new attitude.
Unsure if you saw this yet Mike, but negotiations just got called off and Iran is now saying they will also be closing the Bab Al-Mandeb too.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html
This is a huge escalation that, if Iran is even partially successful, will send oil screaming up. They now have two straits to tug on and we are no closer to a military solution to the first one. I predict an ugly 4th of July.
I predict an ugly decade, maybe more.
It is interesting that this happened on the same day Russia is limiting its exports of jest fuel (look further down the thread were I posted the link).
This is gonna get interesting very fast now (so buckle up). I did claim beware the month of June as it’s looking to be a make or break month for the West.
For whom? the stock market will always go up, and we’ll probably have trillionaires soon. The rich and powerful don’t need workers as AI takes over. We have concentration camps built for immigrants, but they can house poor people too. What’s the problem?
I’m sure the rich aristocracy thought they were immune and safe during the French revolution as well.
People talk about groups of people who have lots of wealth, and either involved in the creation of laws or influence the outcome of said laws – be they geopolitical agreements or domestic laws.
In this latest bid for world power they’re finding out that things aren’t going to plan, and should an emp go off or a nuke be dropped well there goes AI, now doesn’t.
I pity anyone who believes wealth is gonna save their ass when tshtf.
I predict “Cruel Summer” by Bananarama will be the most popular song of the year!
Tasnim News Agency
Iran suspends message exchange with US in protest against Zionist crimes
The determination of the Iranian armed forces and all axes of the resistance front to respond to Zionist crimes and open new fronts
▪️ Tasnim News Agency has learned that, given the continuation of the Zionist regime’s crimes in Lebanon and considering that Lebanon was one of the preconditions for the ceasefire and that this ceasefire has now been violated on all fronts, including Lebanon, the Iranian negotiating team is suspending “dialogues and exchange of texts through a mediator.”
▪️ The immediate cessation of the Zionist regime’s aggressive and brutal army operations in Gaza and Lebanon and the necessity of the regime’s complete withdrawal from the occupied areas in Lebanon have been emphasized by Iranian officials and negotiators, and there will be no talks until Iran and the resistance’s views on this matter are met.
▪️ Also, the Resistance Front and Iran have set their determination to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, and activate other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters.
Jun 1 at 08
https://t.me/Tasnimnews/419422
Iran seems to be calling Trump’s bluff.
Sadly, if “…there will be a deal, one that humiliates Trump.” then it also humiliates the US.
The US humiliated itself when it elected him. We hit rock bottom in dignity over a year ago.
I spend a lot of time out of the country and I can confirm that NO ONE respects us anymore. The Europeans in particular liked Biden, despite his flaws, but assume all Americans now are imbeciles or fascists.
Biden was equally loathsome, just the europeans were more hopeful that the Americans would fight Russia for them.
Not everyone voted for Trump. Republicans. who were party members for 20 or 30 years, have defected from Trump’s Republican Party, which isn’t very Republican. Trump’s tariffs violated a basic Republican principle, which was free trade. But Trump imposed high tariffs, so he could lower them for an expensive gift, like a brick of solid gold from the Swiss or a private, personal business deal for a Trump resort, or a partnership Trump has no personal money into. Then there’s World Liberty Financial, an obvioius crypto scam. Trump and his family have increased their net worth by billions. Jared Kushner alone, Trump’s son-in-law, has gotten over $6 billion from gulf states for his private equity fund, but what if Kushner is Trump’s “bag man”? What if Trump started that Iran war because he was paid to do it by Gulf Countries that fear and hate Iran? What if Trump was paid to give pardons. What if Trump is a crook, a liar, someone who makes payoffs and takes payoffs. At least 38% of American voters still like Trump, and would vote for him again, despite his swaggering, slandering sociopathic behavior. I don’t know the price of oil 6 months from now, but big oil and their money helped Trump become president. And Trump got hundreds of millions from tech billionaires, because Trump is selling influence and running a protection racket out of the White House. Kings, Princes and whole countries paid him as well for favors, protection, and military equipment. We have the most despicable and corrupt President in the history of America, and most of the world has turned against our country because of Trump.
Point of fact – he was first elected November 8, 2016. The us voters hit rock bottom almost a DECADE ago.
The US deserves to be humiliated.
Hell, I have more sympathy for people who voted for the Nazis in 1932 in germany. Germany was in a desperate situation. The Evil Empire is not.
Iran just cut off Trump’s toadstool. Bye SOH and hello closure of Bab el Mandeb
So this means everyones going to pile in on oil and it reaches 150, or spikes higher, even faster than they say? No sense not getting in early.
That’s why I longed USO Thursday
USO up $9, don’t you love the smell of profit napalm early in the morning?
I’m glad at least someone knows what to do with what’s happening in the world.
USO has been a wild ride, but it looks like go time now.
Like I said a while ago, just straddle energy stocks with calls/puts. One day it goes up, cash out, then it goes down, cash out. Rinse/repeat at the bounces.
USOIUBS AG ETR CR OIL SHAR COVNASDAQ55.00
USD
+2.79 +5.34%
Ive done that before. Missed this time
UBS AG ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 24, 2037
NASDAQ:USOI54.02 USD-1.46 (-2.63%)
Some of the dumbest shit I ever heard, out of the mouth of the president no less. Unbelievable.
Ya, just sit back and pay pay pay baby.
Lie back and think of America.
Same thing he said when raping children.
For him, yes. That is all he cares about.
Pressure is added to the system
MOSCOW, June 1 (Reuters) – The Russian government has banned aviation fuel exports until November 30, it said on Monday, as Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s refineries and other energy infrastructure continue….Russia has already restricted gasoline exports but has yet to action on diesel, though the Interfax news agency reported last week that measures were being considered….Diesel production in Russia fell by about 10% in May, adding to a 10% monthly drop in April as Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries forced them to reduce or halt output..
The Europeons are cutting off the branch they’re sitting on.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/01/russia-bans-jet-fuel-exports-until-late-november-a92887
“In a statement, the government said the measure was introduced to “ensure stability in the domestic fuel market.” Supplies to countries that maintain active intergovernmental agreements with Russia will be exempt from the restriction.”
“… countries that maintain active intergovernmental agreements with Russia will be exempt from the restriction.”
Is this not similar to Iran and it’s tolls, for only allied nations of Iran get run Hormuz freely.
East vs West, WW3, what proof does anyone need?
Does Exxon benefit from this article? Yes!!! Do you know what the real money is pricing in looking at a futures contract. December contract is $80. The oil trader has knowledge not dribbled out to you.
For example, Chinese imports have dropped off not in proportion with their level of activity. Traders ask why and come up with the reason is that China is dipping into their reserves of when they were importing an extra one million barrels of oil a day; insert your reason here.
China is making a killing right now if Russia is with their destroyed infrastructure. China is getting a temporary lifeline just like Russia.
There is the price and there is an agenda.
Are you upset that you are losing your bet of $40 oil in December?
Iran has broken off negotiations. They will completely close the Strait. And they will now start interfering with Bab el-Mandeb as well.
And Russia will stop all jet fuel exports as well.
I foresee that the bigger resulting problems will be with SUPPLY of Unleaded and Diesel, and not price. Price is ignored and paid for by people who want to go about their daily commutes, grocery shopping and their daily lives being mobile.
This is going to crimp my boating this summer.
The lake I live on is really quiet this year. It’s nice. Almost as good as it was during covid.
Texas?
West Coast
I have a fast boat that uses quite a bit a gas. First thing almost everyone asks is about filling the tank. I only wish gas was the main expense! Repairs, marina dock and storage fees and maintenance vastly overwhelm the cost of fuel. What looks like a small scratch in the gelcoat can easily cost $1,000 to repair. New / engine rebuilds at $20K+. Just finding props costs over $5K.
BTW, I sometime eat at a restaurant near Haverstraw Marina which has 850 slips. When I checked out the Marina 2 weeks ago, it was at least 50% empty. Usually, the marina is filled. Most boaters there use the marina as a place to hang out, eat, drink and play without even taking their boats out – so they aren’t using much gas. The fact that the marina is so empty is quite telling about the economy. Slip fees run around $6,000 for the summer for a typical boat. Add in the food, getting the boat ready for the summer, taking it out of the water at the end of the summer, wrapping and storing the boat, and it can easily cost $20-30K for the year. If a huge marina like that is 50% empty, you know the economy is hurting. I have never seen that marina empty like that.
The price of Oil is remembering me the Stock Market from October 2019 to Jan 2020. everyone did not pay attention to the Covid and in 2 weeks the market just crashed…Maybe I am wrong but I think we are not far away from a Oil price super shoot
Rapidly dwindling supplies in the face of undiminished demand will do that.
Excellent post. 2-Star Mishelin award granted. I have a feeling it’s going to be a Mishelin star week, a connoisseur of political and economic news like me has a taste for such things.
The next FOMC meeting is June 17th. It will be funny if oil hits $160 when Walrus chairs the first meeting and asks for rate cuts. Lol!
June 17th is two days before summer….the cruel summer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ml3nyww80
It’s Trump war turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!™
Do worry, Trump & Walrus will find a way to make things even worse.™
Warsh wouldn’t even dare push for rate cuts. Would he?
If he don’t cut rates he better have thick skin for Trump’s endless insults.
His insults aren’t even good. Like getting roasted by an 8 year old.
the bluster about “nuclear dust” is the tell, Iran is not negotiating that.
the key commodity is “trust”–Iran has no trust in the US/Israel motives, plans or agreements
An Iranian lawmaker says ongoing talks with the United States are focused on ending the war and preventing a renewed aggression, adding that Iran’s nuclear issue is no longer part of the negotiations.
Esmail Kowsari, a member of Parliament’s Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, told Russia Today that the nuclear issue has been removed from the agenda of discussions with the US.
He said discussions are currently focused on preventing the recurrence of a war, securing compensation, ensuring the withdrawal of American forces from the region, and lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and ships.
He, however, expressed skepticism about the prospects for a final agreement, adding that negotiations are continuing between Tehran and Washington but have yet to produce tangible results….
“We must make sure the other side fulfills its commitments before moving to the next stage, because we do not trust the United States,” the Iranian lawmaker emphasized….
He cited the US-Israeli dictates as among the main reasons behind the failure to reach an agreement with Iran.
Kowsari also reiterated that Iran would maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that many countries have accepted Tehran’s authority over the strategic waterway.
Tick, tock, M’ker
The Recipe for an Iran Nuclear Deal Hasn’t Changed
Anik Joshi June 1, 2026
Keeping negotiations narrowly on the nuclear file is the best way to secure success.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-recipe-for-an-iran-nuclear-deal-hasnt-changed/
Hmmm….recreate the JCPOA except this time the US really means to honor it??
Or make a JCPOA+ where Iran has no access to nuclear research/production/use??
All in a week/month’s time? With a guy like Trump who has always poisoned agreements?
How delusional do you have to be.
From their viewpoint–half a century of relentless propaganda promising the destruction of Iran (who has perpetually been a few weeks from an operational nuke)
And meanwhile North Korea happily proceeds on with nuclear ballistic missiles?
You do realize the non-nuclear means of destruction of Israel and the Middle East economy is already in Iran’s capability if they choose to do so or if they are forced into a Götterdämmerung situation. Nukes not needed.
In this case, time will literally tell.
Tick, Tock
That was the worst article I’ve ever read in that magazine. Have the Zios taken that over, too? He even quotes Axios. They can put their Zioslop in front of people, but they can’t make ‘em eat.
No. The nuclear issue is cover for the real issue.
To make Israel the only regional power, and Iran is the last obstacle.
They had a nuclear deal in Oman, and earlier.
Didn’t help. There is no nuclear bomb.
Enrichment happens in many countries, only in Iran is it an issue.
I remember TAC. Basically the Republican, Catholic, anti-war mag. You could read an article and quickly scan the comments to find easy rebuttals for everything in the article. So they shut down the comments.
Put another way, neocons outnumber paleocons by about 50:1
At some point I would expect Iran to realize nukes are an expensive liability when they can achieve the same thing by closing the strait or destroying their neighbors oil infrastructure.
They might just be holding out as a negotiating tactic.
Point out a nuclear-equipped country that the US doesn’t treat cautiously
The answer of “none” should tell you what you need to know
The US treated Iran cautiously until dipshit needed to make the Epstien files go away.
Not really. Murdering a general on a diplomatic mission is hardly “treating Iran cautiously”.
Why should Iran trust the United States?
“you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
Or a bunch of charts…
Then again I may be older than most here.
Bob. Turned 85 a week ago.
Where is the situation heading?
The situation is heading toward a political settlement, but not one imposed by Trump, rather one crafted by the countries of the region: peace that is not traded for normalization, security that is not imported from Washington, and a future that is not written in American war rooms. The war in Tehran is over, but the real confrontation continues in the waterways. And water, as everyone knows, cannot be controlled by Washington alone. https://x.com/abdulslam2017/status/2060931062671269970
The problem when discussing oil inventories is first to define exactly what inventories you are talking about; oil, refined products, on land, on sea, in pipelines, commercial, SPRs, sanctioned, etc; never mind the type of oil and whether it is suitable for the type of refinery.
One of the best overall (simple) summaries I have seen is this from JP Morgan.
Oil Inventories
Out of the 8.4 billion barrels of global oil inventories, only about 800 million barrels are operationally usable. The remaining ~7.6 billion barrels are unavailable for practical drawdown because they are locked behind physical, logistical, or regulatory constraints.
Below is the full breakdown of what portions are usable vs. unusable, and why.
🛢️ 1. The Real Inventory Breakdown (8.4 billion barrels total)
According to JPMorgan’s latest analysis:
• Total global inventories: 8.4 billion barrels
o Onshore: 6.6 billion barrels
o Floating/on water: 1.8 billion barrels
o Crude: 5.2 billion barrels
o Refined products: 3.2 billion barrels
🟩 2. Operationally Usable Inventories
≈800 million barrels (≈9.5% of total)
This is the only portion that can be drawn without pushing the global oil system into operational stress.
This usable layer includes:
• Some floating storage that can be redirected
• A thin slice of commercial onshore stocks above minimum operating levels
• A small portion of strategic reserves that can be released quickly
🟥 3. Operationally Unavailable Inventories
≈7.6 billion barrels (≈90.5% of total)
These barrels exist on paper but cannot be drawn without breaking the physical oil system.
Why they are unavailable:
A. Pipeline fill (locked-in volume)
Pipelines must remain full to operate. This oil is never drawable.
B. Minimum tank levels (tank bottoms)
Storage tanks require a minimum volume to maintain pressure, avoid contamination, and allow pumping.
C. Refinery operational requirements
Refineries must maintain feedstock buffers to avoid shutdowns. These barrels cannot be touched.
D. Strategic reserves with release restrictions
Large portions of SPRs (U.S., Japan, Korea, Europe) are:
• Legally restricted
• Slow to extract
• Not physically accessible at high rates
E. Barrels in transit
Oil on tankers that is:
• Mid voyage
• Awaiting discharge
• Sanctioned (Russian, Iranian) These cannot be redirected quickly.
• F. Sanctioned or stranded barrels
• Some floating barrels are unsellable or cannot reach markets due to sanctions or blocked routes (e.g., Hormuz).
——
No matter how you measure it, the folks at Exxon, Chevron, ADNOC, IEA, EIA, Kpler, TankerTracker etc all are saying the same thing. Whatever available oil and refined products storage that the world has is rapidly depleting and will run out in a matter of weeks. Prices will shoot higher at that point, if not before.
Which is why I maintain a core position of 50% oil stocks, and trade the rest based on daily volatility. The temporary low prices are a gift that will not last much longer.
Spikes in prices above $150 will be necessary to reduce demand enough to balance with supply. Once supply/demand are balanced again, prices can fall back to slightly lower levels, but will likely remain at triple digit levels for the remainder of the year and into 2027.
Thank you, but TL;DR.
Lol!
Then I will summarize for those with ADHD:
Iran wins. Trump has fucked up. We all pay the price.
YW
Exactly and precisely right!!!
This situation MAY be corrected by grandchildren.
More likely great-grandchildren.
Then again, perhaps three or four generation is insufficient.
You are assuming your Grandkids and younger will survive the coming World Wars.
Wow! Lots of info they provided, and thanks for sharing. This was a rather dire read from a perspective of what ifs? This does further my earlier post about the meeting held recently. They also know this I assume, and we’re making decisions based upon such I am again assuming.
The last thing America and more specifically Trump needs is a catastrophe with oil due to his inability to make things happen in any way to avoid such a tragedy from occurring.
This is where a decision on the strait will have to be made too imo. Blast everything and everywhere around it, so danger is depleted by a large amount. Set up air defenses all over those areas as well. Finish cleaning up the mines etc. Things such as that, but I am not aware of how easy, fast, and accomplished these or other ideas will work. Maybe Trump doesn’t either?
Nope. If the US attacks Iran in earnest once again, Iran will destroy the oil producing ability of every Persian Gulf country that has US bases. Then we get $150 oil for a decade.
There are no good options for Trump. He has lost.
Yes, and ALL of this was known prior to Feb 28 by anyone who was paying attention and not beset by Hollywood-induced American delusions of grandeur. Trump didn’t think they would shut down the Strait, despite Iran saying repeatedly that they would. The US accuses Iran of lying but it’s projection. Iran is forthright and the US has become the Empire of Lies. And Trump is a *(&$(%#&%^ moron.
They just don’t get it, do they?
“There are no good options for Trump. He has lost”
Israel doesn’t care. Not only that, they will demand that the United States make good any losses they suffer.
“Set up air defenses all over those areas as well.” Not even remotely possible. Patriot missiles are hand-made. US defense companies largely work on cost plus. The higher the cost, the better for them. It’s not a bug, it’s a feature. And even if PAC-3 missiles could be made at the scale required, they hardly even work. THAAD systems and missiles are even more expensive and produced in even more miniscule numbers.
“Set up air defenses all over those areas as well.”
Why didn’t anyone think of that?
Maybe because US air defense are already depleted to dangerously low numbers, US radars destroyed.
So where are these going to come from? Maybe China will lend a hand?
Yes, that was sarcasm.
China must be making bank of all the drone parts they’re selling.
Thanks for the detailed post with all the nuances–it’s hard to get this all summarized in a sentence or two.
US gasoline inventories are dropping at a very fast pace, and the only thing keeping it from being even worse has been the rapid SPR draw down. Per my comment yesterday, this rate of SPR draw down can only be sustained for a few more weeks, say to mid July. At that point the US pain ratchets up dramatically.
On the Iranian side, we know that the blockade is causing Iran to run out of storage space and throttle down oil production because we can see increased gas flaring (due to a throttle down of oil production) from space. This is already a problem for Iran, because Iran actually gets most of their natural gas from oil associated fields, so this is causing pain. And it will get worse as Iran throttles all the way down to an oil production rate of about 1.9 million bpd (their domestic consumption rate plus some small export leak). If they try to keep oil production above this rate either for the assoicated gas or to avoid shutting down old mature wells, in the absence of remaining oil storage capacity they will have to dig and use oil burn pits. An environmental disaster, and also easily observable from space. It is hard to know how long it will take for this to happen, but I have seen reasonable estimates that it will start in mid July.
So until mid July, the rest of the world may experience intense pain, but neither Iran nor the US will care about that. But come mid July, the pain level for both Iran and the US will start to increase dramatically. I expect more posturing for a couple more weeks, and then the negotiations to get serious on both sides to avoid the approaching cliff.
I am sort of surprised that Trump is drawing down the SPR now and not holding it until right before elections.
If gas is $12/gallon all summer, seeing $7/gallon gas in November would seem like a breath of fresh air to some voters.
This is the type of analysis needed on all topics on this blog or anywhere. There’s nothing polarizingly political, just raw refined (see what I did there) information..not just data. Now between this information and how the world responds is where crazy ass shit happens but, in the end, the information will have to be digested economically, politically, miltarily, socially and, most apt, personally.
Honestly the only times I’ve seen Americans and the world made difficult and interestingly better decisions personally is when gas/energy is painfully expensive–focuses them on what’s REALLY important to them rather than recreating; when markets actually crash and remove the passive, illusory wealth gains; when they were forced to consider how quickly things can change during events like 9/11, the GFC or the pandemic.
This might be one of those times. But, so far, it has been forestalled by the SPR releases and the jawboning.
Our population gets dumber every decade… at some point they just won’t catch on at all.
The only thing that matters is
NET PETROLEUM EXPORTS
Forget about production numbers and all kinds of other statistics.
Net Petroleum Exports is what drives prices and the markets.
Domestically consumed production numbers just clouds the waters.
It’s net exports (mainly sea-borne) that drives everything.
For some reason the statistics on net petroleum exports are difficult to actually find.
People keep discussing irrelevant metrics, like
Global net petroleum exports are normally 38-40 mbpd, 20 mbpd of that used to come out of the Persian Gulf. The world had lost over half of those 20 mbpd.
Net exports are the amount by which exports exceed imports.
Globally exports and imports match roughly, there is no net.
38-40 mbpd are total sea-borne exports status quo ante, excluding most pipeline volumes.
Iran, Brazil, and the US consume most of their production.
Net exports are hard to determine since all import petroleum & petroleum products as well as exporting, producing, and consuming them.
“Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – It always does! President DJT”
For the wealthy, thankfully it always seems to! But if you’re middle class and driving that Ram Powerstroke diesel 30 miles to work each day, not so much. Especially with that $1300/month payment. But hey, it’s their fault. Should’ve picked better parents!
Dinner at the Wa Wa is impossible as well.
Naw…..just a smarter vehicle.
And please spare a thought for we Europeans, who are likely to be harder hit than you in the US – & all because of a stupid war we want no part of; and of course, our ‘inconvenience’ will be as nothing to the starvation horrors awaiting the poorest countries.
The people that had nothing to do with any of this will suffer more than anyone.
Anyone who voted for the likes of Macron, Merz and Starmer deserves what they get. They turned what should have been a family dispute between Russians – something that was none of their business – into yet another attempt to hobble and eventually conquer Russia. F-ck ‘em. Ask yourself what the F the UK and France were doing in Crimea 170 years ago. Not minding their own business, that’s what. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
If Trump is telling the truth about enriched Uranium and dust etc. then as long as Iran agrees to what Trump ask for, then all else should be on the table. Repair damaged infrastructure perhaps? Allow them to draw sparingly, from the money that was offered, and larger amounts as time goes on, and inspections are fully made and approved perhaps? Things that will allow Iran to do so, save face, and allow for a Peace Plan. I do not believe Trump will give them a toll ability for the strait, but I could see him sending large chunks of money per accomplishments met.
You are delusional. Iran has the leverage and it gets stronger everyday this persists.
I totally understand leverage, but isn’t the ultimate leverage destruction? I also understand Iran is not buying into the leverage, because they don’t think Trump will do it.
I think that was what the reason was for the Big Pow Wow they all recently had. I think it was a strategy meeting on what’s next to happen based on A, B or C, and will do so, directly after Iran makes their move. It’s the one sure way to get things moving. Maybe not in the immediate right direction, but heading there rapidly at that point as changes add up massively and quickly. I could be wrong of course, but that’s my thoughts from the picture I see currently painted…
Stu–would you ever consider doing a business deal with Trump and his crew?
That’s the problem–the people who do deals with him end up looking like fools because “a deal is never done” and when it is “done”, it’s because you’ve been screwed thoroughly
Trust–it’s the missing ingredient
He has. Apparently the checks are still clearing, or he wouldn’t still be here simping.
“ I could be wrong of course, but that’s my thoughts from the picture I see currently painted…”
Yes. You are wrong.
Well we will both find out soon enough by the looks of things.
Maybe but he is not called TACO Trump for nothing.
Stu is delusional because Iran can never Trust Trump.
Trump would renege on any deal he makes the second he gets the uranium.
Why Trump Keeps Getting Rolled in Negotiations
The president will try to spin any Iran deal he makes, but he’s ill-equipped to gain real concessions.
https://archive.ph/rEHc1
I agree, and have wished for him to STFU for awhile now. He truly needs a negotiator for his speaking engagements for decision making moments imo.
He literally has obvious and deepening dementia. It’s of a different nature than Biden’s – who would shake hands with the air or walk right past the entry door to the White House. Trump is confabulating things every day. He believes what he wants to believe even when it’s patently untrue. “Alright, Mr. De Mille, I’m ready for my closeup.” The cabinet should remove him, but they won’t. Rubio and Vance will both have to answer for letting this continue, just as Kamala Harris couldn’t plausibly claim she didn’t know Biden was senile.
Broken link. Trump has sucker punched Iran at least twice – attacking them while “negotiations” were supposedly underway. When Kushner and Witkoff are coming, get in the bomb shelter. That’s why Iran won’t agree to anything based on promises. They’re demanding their assets be unfrozen first, sanctions be lifted first, for Israel to get out of Lebanon first – before they allow Strait passage for hostile (western) countries and before they even start talking about enrichment, etc. Trump can’t do shit about it except eventually accede to their demands.
“Trump has sucker punched Iran at least twice – attacking them while “negotiations” were supposedly underway.”
This was entirely intentional and done to make negotiations impossible.
Party like it’s 1973. 1979?
It’s time to start Kung Fu Fighting again!
Chris Martinson has described this in detail for a month or so, and agrees.