Many see this as a sign of no deal. I suggest something else.
Trump Ups Terms for a Deal
Deal in Limbo
Crow or Lobster?
New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman says It’s Crow, Mr. Trump, Not Lobster
Only two questions remain regarding the U.S. war with Iran. One, how big a plate of crow will President Trump have to eat to end this conflict with at least some achievements? And two, will he tell us the crow he’s eating is lobster or filet mignon?
What Trump also never asked was: What if Iran responds to U.S. airstrikes by trying to hit the oil infrastructure of America’s Arab Gulf allies, the U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain?
That is exactly what Iran did. Among other things, with drone and cruise missile attacks in March, Reuters reported, Iran “knocked out 17 percent of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (L.N.G.) export capacity, causing an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatening supplies to Europe and Asia.” It added, “The repairs will sideline 12.8 million tons per year of L.N.G. for three to five years.”
Now you understand why the Arab oil producers absolutely do not want to see Trump restarting the war, and how Tehran is using that as leverage in its negotiations with Washington.
A Rebuttal to Friedman
So yes, Trump must eat his crow. But so must the strategists, the columnists, the conference-circuit wise men who spent a generation telling Americans that Iran was uniquely beyond diplomacy, uniquely dangerous, uniquely deserving of pressure without limit — and who are now watching, with apparent surprise, as that pressure detonates in the Strait of Hormuz, in the ruins of LNG terminals, across the global economy, and ultimately at gas pumps throughout the United States.
The crow on that table is large. It is not lobster. It is not filet mignon.
And Thomas Friedman helped prepare it.
Trump in 2008
Rubio’s Plea to the UN
The US cannot or is unwilling to win the war militarily.
So Trump wants the UN, whose primary function is to maintain international peace and security, to start a war on behalf of the US and Israel.
Nothing Has Changed
The fact that Trump upped the terms of the deal is just a sign of more Trump delusion that he can win the war with demands.
It’s also a sign of huge pushback by Israel and US warmongers who don’t want a deal at all.
This does not change the fact that Trump still has the same three options he has had since the ceasefire started on April 7 2026.
Trump’s Three Options
- Military Escalation
- Wait Iran Out
- Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
Military Escalation Option Is Flawed
A military operation to remove Iran’s nuclear material could take years with no guarantee of success. Indeed, I would expect this to fail just like we failed in Afghanistan and Vietnam.
The US production of defense systems is running low. The US and the Mideast is defending against $30,000 drones with much more expensive options that are in short supply.
Importantly, it is Iran, not the US, with huge escalation threats. Iran, if attacked, could go after desalinization plants in the region. Literally, the entire nation of Saudi Arabia would have to evacuate in days if its desalinization plants were hit.
Trump seems resigned to the above facts, which is why a ceasefire is in place.
Wait Iran Out Option is Flawed
Iran was supposed to fold in three days, then it was three weeks. Now, no one is sure what Iran’s storage capability even is.
Now strangely enough we are discussing 2.5 years.
Trump has learned nothing from history. Iran has much higher tolerance for pain than Trump expected.
Never before has a blockade worked. It inevitably increases the resolve of those being attacked. In this case, Trump and Israel killed the Iranian leadership who were willing to negotiate.
Meanwhile, as long as the strait is closed, any decline in oil futures is temporary. Trump is getting hammered on gasoline prices and farmers are getting hammered on diesel and fertilizer.
Inflation across the board has soared. US voters overwhelmingly are against the war.
Waiting Iran out is not an option because Iran has chosen to wait the US out. And Iran has a much higher tolerance for pain.
Agree to a Deal Acceptable to Iran
When you throw away every option that doesn’t work, you are left with options that will work. That is option three, no matter how distasteful.
Deal capitulation is option the market expects as well. You can see that in the price of oil.
This is not just US vs. Iran. Strategic Oil Reserves are running low worldwide. Fertilizer, helium, natural gas, and food are all impacted.
There is immense global pressure on Trump to make a deal, any deal that will have oil flowing again.
Trump thinks he is being cute by increasing his demands. But Iran will either laugh or up its demands in response.
It is Trump who is desperate for a deal, not Iran.
Trump’s Big Problems
Trump has two big problems.
The first is presenting a plate of cow pies as lobster. The second is Trump will have alienated both wings of the Republican parties (those who were against the war and those who don’t want it to end).
Trump is vacillating on a deal because he is struggling with losing options.
But there is no other choice, and Iran sees that. So, expect a plate of cow pies presented as lobster.
The Terms of Trump’s Surrender to Iran
For more on the likely terms of a deal, please see Hello. We Are Again Discussing the Terms of Trump’s Surrender to Iran
Iranians are pulling the same tactic they pulled with the hostages under carter. Hopefully only to mid terms. Sometimes the win is not military.
For the record. Carter got their release right as Regan was coming into office so he got the credit.
The United States is negotiating with a regime that Trump claimed we had already changed, to open a strait that was supposed to be open last month, and to end a nuclear program that we said we had obliterated.
… and the calliope plays on madly…
If you don’t know how to make successful deals – write a book about it.
– What if Iran responds to U.S. airstrikes by trying to hit the oil infrastructure of America’s Arab Gulf allies, the U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain? > Has any of these Countries asked the U.S. to help them with support military infrastructure within there Countries? That would help! Are all of these Countries sending troops and support to help the U.S.? That would help! Do these Countries want to forever be held hostage to Iran as there bully in the Middle East? They need to wake up, and help themselves out here. There is an avenue of safety and support that awaits them. For these reasons they might not want the war to continue, but these reasons are all under their control, and ability to help resolve, or not. So far they obviously like to be under the rule and bombings of Iran, by there actions.
– Now you understand why the Arab oil producers absolutely do not want to see Trump restarting the war, and how Tehran is using that as leverage in its negotiations with Washington. > Not at all actually…
Iran is a nation of 93 million people with a massive industrial base, military-industrial complex, and excellent scientific and engineering capabilities. Decades of US sanctions have forced Iran to become this for economic survival. Iraq is a close ally of Iran. The rest of the Gulf states are tiny in comparison. They’ve lived off oil income for decades, have little industrial infrastructure other than oil-related, and simply don’t have the manpower to stand up to Iran. The US had dozens of military bases in these countries in order to protect them from attacks, but Iran completely destroyed them. There is really nothing they or the US can do.
The weakness of the MAGA patriots is completely misunderstanding how much the world has changed in the last 50 years. Iran is not a dusty desert of poor hustlers just making pretty rugs for sale. China’s industrial economy dwarfs that of the US. The US military is designed to easily defeat the Germany and Japan of 1940. But is simply a sinkhole of corruption. It can not defeat middle powers who use modern, low-cost drone technology.
The world moved on from Reagan and 1982. The US and MAGA haven’t. And that fundamental misunderstanding is destroying the US.
– There is really nothing they or the US can do.
> We used modern day weapons early on. We closed one end of the Strait. We hit there deep nuclear production areas.
>> I am not advocating for an all out war, but there are things we can still do. We could use a new and better negotiator I do believe…
I am sure that you made yourself clear, and I respect you opinion. However, I respectfully suggest that you review the existence of “their”, and the difference between that word and the word “there”.
Sorry, I dropped an “r” as in “your” in my first reply,
Rubio and everyone in Trump’s administration speak in forked tongue.
Everyone in the administration serves Trump and only Trump.
And that tongue wags under a brown nose.
Qatar says they oppose permanent tolls by Iran, but are willing to accept temporary tolls to get ships moving again.
The longer this goes on, the more leverage Iran has.
Iran, ruled by the IRGC, will have de facto control the Gulf.
Did you say “thank you” to Trump yet?
… followed by “sir, may I have another”
If Oman works with Iran to split the transit fees the fee system will be harder to dislodge.
As Trump stated, “Does Oman want to get bombed?”
Just like the rest of the world, the gulf states are learning that it was unwise to be a friend, partner, or ally of America. Soon they will all be distancing themselves from the US, because Trump has proven that we cannot protect them. And threats from Trump only help to confirm their mistake.
Like telling the bully at school, that it’s ok to punch me in the face on Tuesday and Thursday, but not the other days of the week please…
The bully on the block is the US. Iran has been peaceful for decades with its neighbors. DJT caused this problem, not Iran.
Let’s see what Qatar says when the US is proven impotent, and they’re offered a fat share of those tolls.
Iranian President Pezeshkian submitted his letter of resignation to the Supreme Leader. Iran doesn’t want to negotiate, it’s a delay tactic, it signals an internal struggle, or a combination of all the above.
It signals the END of the internal struggle. The IRGC is now fully in charge.
You have a “Supreme Leader” of Iran, and then everyone else. They run virtually all decisions and directions of the Country.
He should. He’s fifth column.
NYT: Trump Hits the Stalemate Phase of His International Interventions, and It Stings
But now, Mr. Trump has hit the stalemate phase of his presidency.
The war with Iran is clearly at that stage. When he declared a cease-fire on April 7, Mr. Trump said on social media that the end of combat operations would be conditional on “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” It wasn’t. Even if commerce now resumes across the strait under a memorandum of understanding still under negotiation, it will still leave the future of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs exactly where they were in February: stuck in a further negotiation that the administration insists will be “time limited,” probably to 60 days.
But the Iranians sense Mr. Trump’s deep reluctance to restart combat operations that are deeply unpopular in the United States, and most Iran experts say they expect Tehran to try to stretch the negotiations for months or years — as they have with past administrations.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/us/politics/trump-iran-stalemate-ukraine-gaza.html
They might have been able to do that with Obama.
And the JCPOA was incredibly successful.
Look at you and your Obama trauma.
Everyone else has moved on, but still your tears flow at the very mention of his name.
Rather than making his “final determination”, Trump changed and added a few items and sent the proposal back to Iran to look at. Another week goes by. Another 90 million barrels of lost production. Another 90 million barrels of global oil reserves used up.
Storage runs out soon. Oil to $150 by the end of June according to several oil execs. I’m guessing sometime in July myself. With oil that high, expect US average gas prices over $5. Diesel close to $7.
Oil futures and bond yields are rising from the ashes friends. Get ready for a cruel summer and some kind profits.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/european/energies
The Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, all counted on the US to protect them from Iran. The US not only failed spectacularly, but instigated the war that has so damaged their oil export economies. Now they watch the US President, flailing away, a barking at the moon lunatic, obviously unable rectify the situation.
I predict that quite soon, within the next couple months, the Gulf States will reach an accommodation with Iran which will include expelling all US forces from their countries, and closing all US air and navel bases and other military facilities. They might even ask for new security guarantees from China or Russia to ensure that the US leaves peacefully and Hormuz opens.
It must be obvious to the Gulf countries by now that the only Israel “enjoys” total US fealty and that they are expendable.
Bingo. Trump has unified Asia with majority wanting to send the USA packing now. He basically achieved the impossible by being the worlds biggest ass
the guy is a menace
did not Trump want to ‘wind down’ our military presence abroad?
5d chess, baybeee!
You get a Mishelin star for comment. If you had included the only solution, got exit strategy? I would have upgraded to 2-star Mishelin comment.
“The Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, all counted on the US to protect them from Iran.”
To be fair, the United States never gave the gulfie tyrannies a choice.
Protection rackets typically do not depend on the consent of the “protected”.
The Mohammed Accord?
At this point, it doesn’t really matter.
Don Corleone, step into a manure, and instead of declaring victory, and walking away from it, he jumped into the septic.
Iran doesn’t feel threatened as it keeps inserting clause into the agreement regarding Lebanon. Doesn’t sound like a country in collapse.
China didn’t come out of it with flying colors. It acted as if this wasn’t in the 5-year plan, but eventually caught up with the reality.
Don Corleone imagined himself walking into the meeting with Xi offering him HIS Iranian oil. He couldn’t resist that candy.
It’s victory for China, who acts more like an adult, and the world appreciates it.
Exactly. It’s neither cow nor lobster, but a humble pie.
Don’t give Israel any ideas Mish. Actually, I think that’s been the plan all along. Israel thinks the big guy upstairs deeded them all land in the Middle East but somehow can’t enforce the deed restrictions.
Won’t be surprised if this ends up happening at all. I’m positioned for profits should it happen.
Excellent post, 2-star Mishelin award granted.
That’s why Iran should only hit Israel; its desalination plants (70% of its fresh water) its offshore gas fields (80% of its electricity). Problem (for us) is that if Israelis flee, they’ll want to come here. They already have the Jewish Autonomous Oblast. They should go there.
I’d guess the Iranians think Israel will nuke them if they do that. The Israelis are rabid enough to use nukes in part because they think they can get away with it. And, considering who its owners are, Western media would just say “That’s a shame.” I doubt there would be a proportionate response from anyone, not even Pakistan.
I suspect when Israel falls in a couple decades, most will emigrate to the US.
Their attitude will get their asses kicked around here. Parts of NYC where the Orthodox Jews live might tolerate them, or they might find them not orthodox enough. Regular American Jews are going to want nothing to do with Israelies.
I’d like to see them pull their chosen people horseshit in Dallas. Sure, strut around like you own the place, with your Willie Nelson braids and that little box strapped to your head. See if god protects you from the rednecks you offend.
Attacking water infrastructure is literally the nuclear option in a desert civilization. That’s why I say Iran doesn’t need nuclear weapons because they de facto have this option available to them already.
“Now strangely enough we are discussing 2.5 years”
‘Short’ Term Pain – Is Now Turning Into ‘Long’ Term Pain.!
the 3 options presented assume Trump has agency in this situation
what if we start with the assumption that he’s not in control of anything and will just have deal with what’s dictated to him? On a timeline he can’t control
the flaw in most western viewpoints is that the mighty USA controls everything- it might be wise to consider that the game has changed and the empire is going flaccid, running on bluster and bluff
i personally think Trump is going to be begging in Beijing, for various reasons, forget Rubio and the UN
Its pretty clear that Trump is a sheep at a coyote convention
Well isn’t this special! Who knew?
That’s a bullshit claim (if the implication is that the U.S. Navy is somehow bypassing Iranian controls or sending their own ships through as a guide). There are a number of ships that Iran lets through every day per their protocol (may or may not involve a toll depending on agreed arrangements with countries involved). It’s possible that U.S. Navy communicates with some of those ships, but they most certainly are not going through the Strait themselves.
And YOU know this how? 🤣
The burden of proof is on you, since you brought it up. Show me verified footage of Navy ships moving through the Strait which are not on fire. If we could do it, we would and there would be evidence.
You really are a dick. Who are we to believe? The US military report, to which I provided a valid URL link where you can go argue with the source or a random internet dog named “Mick” who might well be an Iranian IRGC entity that doesn’t want the truth to get out? 🤣🤣🤣
I can confirm I am a dick (unfortunately for you). Congrats for knowing how to copy/paste a URL and an article fragment. This is the typical modus operandi for a MSM propaganda outlet, basing an article on a claim by anonymous sources. Unfortunately, I can’t read the full article because it’s been hard-paywalled (archive.is won’t even work). So you tell me : did the anonymous sources provide the NYT with verifiable evidence? There are no ship names, not even ship types.
I’ll spell the facts out for you : the Strait is a constrained chokepoint, only 21 miles across. Iran and Oman have mutually come to an agreement to the control protocols, and we can assume a degree of cooperation monitoring the waterway. There is a technology called night-vision which allows surveillance even at night. This could be done directly from the shoreline, from patrol boats, or overhead drones. Iran has the high ground, so there is no obvious obstacle to line of sight. And oh, one more thing : I looked up the size of a typical Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and found they are 1100 ft long, or roughly 3 football fields. It’s laughable to think those are sneaking around. Also, I understand only a fraction of the Strait is dredged out to a depth suitable for these VLCC. This is Iran’s backyard and they surely know exactly where vessels can go and where they can’t.
So, you’ve posted a whopper of a claim with no credible receipts, and a lot of reasons to doubt it. You know what I think? Yes, vessels have probably quietly transited with transponders off. But a plausible reason would be to make it more difficult for interdiction by U.S. Naval blockade, and that’s much more realistic possibility given that our ships need to position themselves a few hundred miles away from the Strait and the Iranian coastline to reduce risk of aerial attacks from Iran. There’s a huge distinction between surveilling and controlling a narrow Strait and interdicting traffic for hundreds of miles, and that should be obvious to anyone who thinks it through.
U.S. Military Is Quietly Guiding Ships Through the Strait of Hormuz
American forces in recent weeks have helped coordinate the passage of dozens of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. officials, even as travel through the waterway remains risky amid stalled negotiations to end the war with Iran.
U.S. Central Command has guided around 70 commercial ships through the strait, traveling into and out of the Persian Gulf, in the last three weeks, one of the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The U.S. officials added that most of the vessels had turned off their transponders to avoid detection when going through the narrow waterway.
The officials declined to say what type of vessels were going through and what route they took, but one official indicated that at least one route was not close to the Iranian coastline. Ships passing near Iran without obtaining Iranian approval face the threat of an almost-certain attack by Iranian drones or missiles, U.S. officials said. Shipping analysts say the U.S.-guided crossings appear to follow routes that are closer to Oman.
Before the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, well over 100 commercial ships a day passed through the strait. So the U.S.-coordinated passages — an average of three a day over the three-week period — do not represent a big comeback for shipping. And because U.S.-guided crossings take place with transponders turned off, known as “dark” passages, shipping analysts say they cannot independently verify how many may have taken place.
Still, a steady passage of ships under U.S. guidance would suggest that some shipowners are willing to take the risk to get in and out of the Persian Gulf, where many vessels have been stranded for weeks, losing money and leaving their crews in trying conditions.
What you should know about anonymous sources. The Times makes a careful decision any time it shields the identity of a source. The information the source supplies must be newsworthy, credible and give readers genuine insight.
Learn more about our process.
The U.S.-coordinated route is also an alternative for shipowners who don’t want to have to get permission from Iran or pay a toll to make the crossing. The conflict with Iran has led to a sharp reduction in energy supplies to world markets.
Last week, U.S. officials said Iran and the United States were close to reaching an agreement that would reopen the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant proportion of its natural gas traveled before the war. But on Sunday, U.S. officials said President Trump had toughened the terms of a framework for a deal.
In early May, Mr. Trump announced a major military operation, Project Freedom, to help get ships through the strait, but then quickly ended it, partly because of objections from Saudi Arabia. Since then, Central Command has encouraged ships to make the passage but has stopped short of providing a naval escort.
“Though U.S. forces are not escorting, we continue to communicate and coordinate with commercial ships seeking to freely and safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, a critical international corridor for regional and global economies,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, a Central Command spokesman, said in a statement on Saturday.
Your reply proves that you work for the Iranian Regime or your are a far leftist Democrat desperate not to have the bubble you live in popped.
Funny how you post most right around work hours in Israel.
You’re hidden again.
[Shrug] Thanks? 😂
The US lies about everything. Everything.
When one realizes this, it gives clarity.
Well, let’s pretend that this time the US is telling the truth.
So what? Are those ships going to go back through the Straits?
Take a walk… you’re gonna give yourself a stroke.
ok than lets get back to the real business
https://cbs12.com/news/local/florida-congressman-calls-for-subpoena-of-acting-ag-todd-blanche-in-epstein-files-probe
The official declined to say what type of vessels … translation: dinghies, small sailboats, sloops. Nothing big enough to transport a serious amount of anything.
Iran just collected $2 mil each for passage of 28 tankers within the last 48 hours.
And your source is the IRGC! Another Iranian post bot. Sheese.
You know what the meaning of “assume” is?
Wooden row boats tied bow to stern in a long line one barrel of crude in each.
As I said – let’s pretend that the the US is telling the truth for a change.
Those vessels are not going to go back into the Straits.
Don’t you think Trump would be bragging about this up down and sideways?
Does Pete Hegseth control US Central Command? If so I am a little suspicious. Like he used work at Fox Propaganda.
The article explains why Trump isn’t bragging about the work. Did you read it before your post? Or do you just like to hear yourself post?
Every time you read an article in US mainstream media you are being played whether you realize it or not. It’s the most clever, seductive and effective propaganda system in the history of mankind.
It’s not even just US… as far as I’ve been able to determine, any English language news source is between 50 and 99% bullshit.
None of us know what’s really going on. The screens lie.
So, 70 ships over “recent weeks”. Let’s be generous and say that means “the last two weeks”. That means 4-5 ships a day, where it used to be around 130 a day, exact number depending on the source. And it is not even clear from the article if this is entirely due to American Forces, or if they only helped execute on what Iran allowed.
This just goes to show how much power Iran has, right? Reducing shipping to almost 3,5% of the original number?
Pro tip: Never, ever embrace anything Tom Friedman is pitching. He has been wrong so often one has to wonder what kind of blackmail documents/photos he has on the NYT that they keep paying him to write opinions.
Lol! The pot calling the kettle black.
Jojo thought Iran’s oil fields and pipelines would blow up 3 weeks ago because Trump said so!
Hahahaha!
He’s right about one thing: Tom Friedman is an imbecile. An imbecile who thinks he’s a genius. He’s the stupid person’s smart person.
I don’t even know who that is. Nor do I care. Sounds like a few of the MAGA cult who post here. They believe their own crap and the crap that other MAGAs post and think they are smart. When they are truly dumb fucks.
You don’t know him because you are a TX hick. This is why your opinions are so uninformed. You don’t even understand who the players are. Try reading more and posting less BS, gramps.
Matt Taibbi has laid bare on numerous occasions the stupefying idiocy of NYT columnist Tom Friedman. Readers of the NYT should consider that their trusted source elevates such a dolt. The classic initial bitchslap was written in 2005. https://www.alternet.org/2005/04/flathead
They are uniquely intelligent and observant people, and have discerned truths that the sheeple simply will not accept.
Just like their pants-shitting leader.
Mish: so he’s either a pushover or a nutjob. Make up your mind 🙄
Trump can be a pushover, nutjob, pedophile protector, and a rapist with dementia and wild mood swings.
Does that clarify things?
He is a man of many achievements. Can any of us claim that many?
Sorry folks but the US playbook is either collapse or Balkanization like the Russian PHD mapped.
TPTB saw what happened when the USSR fell apart then rebuilt under a strong leader.
Here though it will be collapse/reset and rebuild under a surveillance state favoring those with not money but ties to outside old world money.
Most of the world is still owned by royalty.
Naturally white folk will lean toward old world white folk money.
Russia and China will use Africa as the new workforce of the world.
They will play with Africa and South America for resources and partially share the wealth
The po folk fellaheen of the world despises the old colonizers.
India was to be the next middle class after China hit the demographic bomb but the cast system and treatment of woman kind of kills that.
Although they make a nice market for the cheap toys China and it’s manufacturing allies will sell them.
Someday Indian kids will be making 4k Bollywood films on their Huawei phones.
And find a community that thinks like you sounds fine until they want to take more than their fair share of your food or maybe the gunslinger in chief wants your daughters because he is bored with the other ones he lay claim to.
Literally does no one pay attention to ALL the dystopian programming that runs and sits in the back of everyone’s head?
We ain’t being sold that glorious Star Trek future anymore. Try these for size, Person of Interest, Mr.Robot, The Boys.
The main themes are roughly the same and those are off the top of my head.
Good luck and hide your grain and women like the peasants in Seven Samurai.
By the way a few months ago two guys tried to recruit people to grab a Haitian island with them. They wanted to kill all the men and keep the women for themselves.
Those men are your future.
https://www.npr.org/2025/11/23/nx-s1-5618242/texas-haiti-gonave-island-plot
Texas men indicted in plot to take over Haitian island and enslave women and children
November 23, 2025
So Russia is rebuilt and is much better with a “strong leader”?
Puhleeeze. Russian GDP is barely bigger than the State of Florida’s.
They can’t even take a single oblast’s capital in Ukraine, and they have been fighting longer than WWII.
Their population is shrinking.
Nobody’s using Putin’s Russia as a template for anything except utter failure.
You should have known he was retarded after the line about most of the world being owned by royalty. Or, better, the boys as a future. You know, the superhero comic?
Here’s something more coherent: America is forced to compete with other nations, China is just fine, Africa continues to catch up. The collapse shit is entirely from people too stupid to recall most American history being like this, and it’s about as clever as people predicting China or Iran collapsing any day now.
It’s so funny!
The US is holding the line with the Iranian Regime for 3 months. It’s ports are blocked, its economy is on life support and all its leadership has to offer is bluster. Yet so many across the net call the US a loser in the engagement..
Meanwhile, when it comes to Russia, these same people claim Putin is winning, despite being held to a standstill by a much smaller country and armed force and losing 35000+ troops every month!
The US seems to have stalled into an attrition style war in Iran. Putin definitely has done so in Ukraine. He has boots on the ground in Ukraine’s territory and we don’t even have that. We will see in the future how apt a comparison might be. We cannot tell now, with such fog, not least from our own government which is supposed to be working for us, but is massively compromised in its own political machinations. The US looks like Russia or China more and more with its playing with numbers. Ukraine in war deprives the world of some wheat, but not 20 percent of its oil.
Putin has boots on the ground and a half million casualties… Hooray?
1/2 million is Ukie bullshit. The CIA tells Ukraine what BS to claim and western media publish it like its actual news.
Bbc has actual names of over 200,000 fatalities. Casualties number is obviously much greater
What is the definition of “is”? Casualties = fatalies. D’oh.
No, casualties are not the same as fatalities. Look it up.
Wrong. Russian dead is at least 400k and growing each month.
He reduced the prison population too! He’s unstoppable.
I agee with you on the second part: Putin is not winning, and suffering many losses while doing so.
I also agree with your assessment of how Iran is paying a price in the war. But I still call the US the loser in this engagement because they started it out of choice and have not met any one of their objectives, while suffering a high cost.
They have also been exposed as much weaker than thought before, losing a lot of their clout,
None of this is difficult to figure out, nor should it surprise anyone.
I’ve been saying this for years that there is no deal Iran can make that Israel will be satisfied with.
Wrong. The deal is to giv eup the nuke materials, promise (with independent oversight) not to restart it s nuke program, open the Strait and stop funding terrorist proxies that attack Israel.
Easy peasy!
Iran realizes that “deal” is a functional capitulation of its entire power structure, its bargaining and deterrent power, etc. I.e., to deed Iran and. its culture and resources completely to the US and Israel, from its leaders’ POV.
There is then no real-world barrier to this total transformation taking place.
Dumb reply. The Iranian Regime can continue to abuse and oppress its population, produce oil, skim money off the oil sales and live large without anyone bothering them..
What’s not to like? Nothing if they were normal despots.
But noooooooooo. The Iranian Regime is driven by their religious fervor that dictates that all religions convert to their version of Islam or submit to their rules. This is why they need nuclear weapons.
They’re demanding all frozen assets be released and all sanctions on their energy be lifted before talking about anything else. And that Israel stop attacking Lebanon. So, no deal will happen and when reserves are depleted, the shit will hit the fan. And Trump will get clobbered in November and be impeached again.
Iran is in no position to negotiate any terms. We can keep escorting ships through the Strait until it is clear, keep blockading their ports, keep the sanctions on, keep the economic squeeze on. Just like a medieval siege, they will eventually crack.
I guess Rubio does not see the irony in saying the UN must bail out the US from this fiasco. First of all the US should get caught up with its dues for being a member of the UN. Rubio should be reminded that there is a small matter of around $4.5B that needs to be settled? Second yes the UN is an organization for PEACE. The US started a WAR and now you are blaming Iran for it? All the US has to do is walk away and there will be peace. When the biggest, baddest, bully in the world picks a fight for no good reason with what is effectively a weakling, there is absolutely no obligation on the part of the weakling to fight fairly. When you are fighting for your very survival anything goes. Remember the American Revolution? The rebels felt no compulsion to engage in what the British felt to be an honourable manner.
Rubio – another idiot who thinks he’s smart.
Rubio was an anchor baby.
The IRGC is upset that Israel continues to successfully off Iran Hamas proxy leaders in Gaza. Can there ever be any peace when the head of the IRGC calls for Israel to be “wiped out”? It is also notable that the statement below was issued without any name attached to it. I’d wager that whoever wrote the statement is wary of becoming Israelis next target! 😎
IRGC says peace in West Asia impossible until Israel is ‘wiped out’
The IRGC are entirely correct.
All Trump 24/7 what wonderful free press he gets.
Between tariffs, wars, OBBBA, slush funds for J6 rioters, threats against Greenland, Cuba, Canada, gerrymandering etc…
What else are people supposed to be writing about? RMDs from a 401(K)?
Trump insiders have already bought their puts and calls. Now to have a justification for calling off the deal.
It’s all so tiresome.
It is fun to watch the UNMAGA mumble “rabble,rabble,rabble”.
Sadly there are a minimal amount of posters here so all the funny stuff goes to ZH.
Again, where is seal team six when you really need them?
They were killed after the fake killed Osama then fake dumped his body in the ocean.
Well, the people in Pakistani and Afghanistan believe the US got him. Not sure why you think you’re smarter than them.
Probably at the circus bouncing beach balls of their noses.
Are you suggesting they “take out” Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir? Your ideas intrigue me…
It’s a credit to Trump’s stupidity that he didn’t take option 3 a month ago when the cease fire started. He could have declared victory, said all our objectives had been achieved and walked away – god knows his quarter wit supporters would have believed him and the republican party of noxious quislings would have fallen right in line.
He’s always been a moron, and now he’s a moron with dementia. Anything rational he does is pure chance.
If you accuse the guy across you of being an idiot when you challenge him to a Chess game and he wins what does it make you?
Free press 24/7.
For funsies next time he should appear with his zipper half down.
So Trump’s 3D chess play is to act like an idiot so everyone will think he’s an idiot?
If you’re counseling him to appear with his zipper undone so that the press will write that he did something idiotic, and that’s actually smart….
Man, you people would make me laugh, if there weren’t so many of you!
Iran is playing chess while Trump is playing pin the tail on the donkey.
You assume facts not in evidence.
Trump didn’t want to declare victory: he wanted to pacify the Middle East, for the benefit of Israel and American business.
Trump isn’t some silly ass like you boys. He is Napoleon, not Napoleon III. I suppose you don’t know enough history to know what I mean. Perhaps it would be easier for you if I said he was Bismarck, not Wilhelm II.
This is almost as funny as you quoting Rick and Morty but not quite as funny. Try it again with a little more thought next time.
Didn’t Napoleon’s invade Russia and lose?
Didn’t Napoleon convince the French they were exceptional and were destined to rule so “invented jingoistic nationalism.
He did set up the Napoleonic codes that still survive today.
He was also a military genius that caused millions in Europe to die.
Trump’s legacy? Grifter, racist, Epstein’s best friend, misogynist, rapist, convicted tax fraud, moron.
It’s true that Napoleon did overreach himself, and Trump may, too. But there is still a lot more to him than your last paragraph indicates. Until his first term, the entire West was very busy sucking up to China, while it brazenly and openly prepared to destroy us.
Trump thinks he’s tough but he’s too much of a pussy to ever tell Israel no.
Would have been impossible as Netanyahu (whose name was Mileikowski before he changed it) wants war with Iran and cleaning up of Lebanon, Gaza style. Another real estate project in view perhaps?
“This is not just US vs. Iran.”
And if you could view this (the current Iran, US conflict) under the framework of World War it becomes much easier to understand why there hasn’t been capitulation (from either side) and why the world is being divided by East vs West. It can also help one to realize that this stalemate can last a lot longer than the world can stomach.
The new world war, which is in the early stages (starting first with Ukraine and Russia), has so far been marked by proxy wars waged in what is thought to be the weakest energy centers of competing fractions (again East vs West).
Iran was thought to be the weakest and strategically the best target for disrupting energy flows into the East. Better yet, it was thought, that if the Iranian govt could be toppled that Iran’s oil supply could be harnessed for the Allied countries benefit, in both military needs and domestic use (this was the resoning behind the White Revolution of ’53, and would help with the current energy supply void in the wake of the Ukrainian mess). Ultimately though having Irans oil would give tremendous amount of leverage against some of the West’s (read America) biggest rival(s) China who is not only seeking to escape from a unipolar world, but is also amassing a large pool of countries who also want the same.
With Iran fully under Western control it will would be much easier for the West to influence the gulf states than relying on Israel alone (proof is Trump’s demand that gulf states sign onto the Abraham accords), which if the gulf states played nice got both Western technology and diplomatic backing. Having diplomatic control of the Middle East would mean the West would have control over 30% of the worlds oil production and thus allow the West to continue its vision of a unipolar world.
Therefore, because of this the current Iran/US conflict will end up falling back to the tried and true method (and often failed) use of military force to force Iran to submit (it’s why I said June or July the bombs will drop again in Iran even if they agree to a 60 day extension) largely because “[t]his is not just US vs. Iran” there are many interest involved and on opposite sides. And as such this event must be playout on the world stage and the outcome could very well determine who wins in this new world war in the long-term.
So buckle up!
Read any Martin Armstrong lately.
Tensions all over the world and mini engagements happening everywhere.
But only IRAN makes the news.
Not like the virtual merger of US and IDF.
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/congress-quietly-moves-intertwine-us-israeli-militaries-formal-level
Congress Quietly Moves To Intertwine US, Israeli Militaries On Formal Level
This makes sense. Here’s some education to help you better understand the big picture. Hopefully, this will help you and others from posting more uninformed comments going forward, though I doubt it.
Israel has nothing to offer America. Nothing. The high tech investments can only remain viable if there is peace and Israeli leadership only seeks war with its neighbors. One more military entanglement with Iran means it all gets buried under rubble. Mossad has been impressive at times but the last run at regime change failed and most certainly exposed networks within Iran (who with help is getting better at disrupting these operations).
Intertwining the U.S. with Israel at the military level makes it even clearer to Iran that both must be eliminated as Middle Eastern threats to their security if war resumes.
Did you ever make it past 10th grade? Do you know how to read?
Can you? “Israel has NOTHING to offer the U.S.”. The IDF ground forces have been pummeled by Hezbollah, who now have their own fiber optic drones. Air defense systems have been proved to be a failure, overwhelmed by drone swarms and useless against advanced ballistic missiles. They’ve proven that given time Mossad is capable of infiltrating and killing a lot of innocent people along with designated targets, and that they can bury more innocents under rubble when there’s no air defense. Well whoop de da! Oh, and they can buy U.S. politicians.
This is not about U.S. gaining capabilities, but forcing by law the subjugation of our military to the Zionists. We should be severing our relationship w/ Israel, not deepening it.
Israel is a tumor.
Congress quietly moves to integrate US and Israeli militaries
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-us-military/
If ZH is right I don’t think peace between Iran and the US nor Iran and Israel can be had.
Yes, energy is a component of the US’ jingoistic and militaristic designs on W. Asia and Russia.
I would also add that as an empire the US is also attempting to thwart the PRC from completing its Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Iran and Russia are critical nodes within the BRI due to their respective geographies, and the GCC adds to the plethora of commodities that all three add to the synergies of the BRI.
Another integral part of the BRI, namely Ukraine, will contribute as one of the breadbasket countries, distribution.nodes, metals, mining and wiring for business equipment.
At this time China is attempting to rebuild the old Silk Road, increase its wealth and those countries within it while the US has been engaged in overthrowing Muslim nations that don’t bend the knee or blowing up countries that multinationals desire as vendors and/or customers.
FDR, energy is the lifeblood of every economy and society. In fact there’s a whole economic theory (Thermoeconomics) based on this fact so it seems reasonable that if one wanted to slow down, or stop the economy of a rival country one would prioritize their energy sources and supplies as first targets to strike.
China, much like we are witnessing with Iran, thought long and hard of ways to circumvent the (over)reach of the west. It’s why the sun will rise in the East again as the light up on the hill goes out.
I am inclined to agree with your idea that this is the first stage of World War Three. However, I would observe that at least Trump is competent, and so are Putin and Netanyahu. There was a great scarcity of competent men in charge at the beginning of World Wars One and Two, from what I can recall of history. I can’t think of one at the beginning of World War One. In World War Two, Roosevelt might qualify. Remember that Churchill didn’t get into office until it was too late to stop the war.
The other criticism I have of your analysis is your suggestion that China “is not only seeking to escape from a unipolar world, but is also amassing a large pool of countries who also want the same.” As I see it, looking at it from Australia, China has annoyed a lot of its neighbors by claiming hegemony over the South China Sea, building artificial islands for military purposes, drilling for oil in waters claimed by Viet Nam, and threatening Filipino fishermen. China has made some friendly overtures to some countries and some Pacific islands, but on the whole (as I hear it from our media), China has been very heavy-handed.
Singapore keeps on wanting to be friends, but Singapore does that because Singapore has to be prepared to trade with anybody to survive. (Singapore doesn’t want to pay tolls or have the Straits of Malacca blocked by anybody who gets bright ideas about charging tolls there, so has come out against the Persian demands for tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.)
The new Japanese prime minister, bless her heart, has suggested that Taiwan’s defense is essential to Japan’s defense, which tells Peking how Japan feels about any ideas they may have of reconquering their rebel island.
I don’t suppose these things get much airing in your domestic American media, but two quasi-alliances that have been set up against Chinese threats are the “quad,” consisting of the U.S.A., Japan, India, and Australia; and the AUKUS pact, consisting of the U.S.A., Britain, and Australia. I don’t quite understand how governments manage to organize overlapping pacts like that, but anyway that is what they say they are doing.
To me, it looks as if China is making the same mistake that Germany made during World Wars One and Two, of trying to fight most of the world at once. You don’t make friends or strengthen your position by yelling “I am the greatest.”
“To me, it looks as if China is making the same mistake that Germany made during World Wars…”
When you look at any Western country vs China there’s one glaring issue that can’t be solved quickly (it take decades), and the Western countries – especially America – did it to themselves.
And that is there’s no Western country that can match China’s production capacity for war machines (and in many ways they can’t even match Russia’s). For what China can produce even now Western countries couldn’t keep up because they thought the world would go along with it holding it’s hand into a unipolar utopia vision of the world and moved away from creating and innovating war machines.
This alone means China wont fall like Germany, and given its numbers alone – ~1.5 billion – plus its production of military assets China can and will make good on it’s threats should they start declaring them.
Trump is competent??? He’s not even continent!
A lot of old men aren’t continent. That doesn’t mean they can’t think.
In reply to “why” above, I’ve seen a report that says that the big car companies are swinging their production lines over to war production, and I suspect that a lot of other companies will be doing the same. I don’t know enough about the facts and figures to be sure (this is a job for Mish), but I learned in history class about how great German manufacturing companies switched from consumer items to war items and back again, as the exigencies of their bungling government’s policies demanded. I think American companies can do that, too.
I suggest that the amount of “hollowing-out” in American manufacturing capacity is probably exaggerated in public discussion.
What you need is for the American dollar to have a good dive, so that American labor costs are lower in relation to Asian labor costs, and home-derived raw materials are more competitive against Asian-derived raw materials. Trump’s monetary and fiscal policies may very well bring this about. I feel sorry for the pensioners and others on fixed incomes, but what can you do?
The world that we think we would like to have good relations with is suffering because of the US. We’ve been protected because of our internal oil reserves and production but the various economies are suffering because of Trump’s (and Netanyahu’s) insanity. Our own economy is tailing downward and in reports, will hit a major wall this month. The longer this continues the more hurt the US and “allies” economies will be hit.
https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html
Beyond the economy, the US faces two humiliations–the continued presidency of Trump and the continuing fact that the US military does not have the means to enforce its goals
Every great leader says this type of thing….
The results of my Physical Examination, taken at Walter Reed Military Medical Center, and just released, were extremely good. Unlike other U.S. Presidents, none of whom have ever taken an approved, high difficulty, Cognitive Test, I scored a perfect 30 out of 30, considered “extreme intelligence.” Are the Dumocrats really surprised? In fact, this is my fourth such test, all PERFECT or, 120 correct answers out of 120 questions asked! It is very rare that anyone gets a Perfect Score, especially when achieved four times in a row. All people running for President and Vice President should be forced to take high difficulty Cognitive Tests. Congress, and the Dumocrats, should demand it! President DONALD J. TRUMP
They should also show their tax returns.
The smart ones under how to master distraction.
Bill Clinton said it depends on the meaning of what the word is is.
And FDR was pretty screwed up.
https://lib.arizona.edu/hsl/materials/collections/secret-illness/fdr
Franklin D. Roosevelt – Disability and deception
And our Perfectly Cognitive President is retweeting Newt Gingrich’s call for a new Operation Linebacker (Vietnam era) which theoretically would drive the Iranians back to the negotiation table.
(It should be noted that, yes, North Vietnam went back to the table after the bombing campaign but the US and North Vietnam signed to the very same terms that were on the table before the bombing campaign–and threw South Vietnam to the North)
Know which economies are faring better? Those which kept the US at a distance. Know which economies are doing best? Those which isolated their economies from the US.
The longer Trump delays his surrender, the worse it will be. Iran’s leverage grows stronger every day as global oil storage levels continue to drop. As Exxon, Chevron and Saudi oil execs said last week, we are 3-4 weeks from tank bottoms and $150 oil.
There are a couple of additional delaying tactics out there: Another coordinated global SPR release; which would be the last one; then SPRs will be used up. Or a deal with Iran to let the tankers stranded in the Persian Gulf out with 170 mb of oil in exchange for a drop of the US blockade, an ending of sanctions on Iranian oil, and a release of frozen Iranian funds. Or a deal with China where they will release some of their massive 1300 mb SPR.
I don’t think China would be interested int continuing.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Oil-Buying-Pause-Wont-Last-Forever.html
Hard to say with China. They could be coerced to release more from their SPR if the US drops tariffs and trade barriers. They certainly won’t do it to be nice.
As I said , it was one of three possible delaying tactics. None of which will last for long.
China knows the long game.
It always kills me how people consider China backward.
They came straight off a cultural revolution into WW2 then drove Chainag Ki Shek to Taiwan. Spelling was off on the name sorry.
Then Mao screwed up with the cultural revolution.
But compared to the rest of the worlds timeline they are Scifi.
Plus most of the early European science secrets came from China and India along the Silk road.
Actually, the secrets came from India on the water, driven by the monsoon winds. See:
I thought Oilprice was some bad press kind of thing.
AI says
While OilPrice.com is generally rated as a Center-biased source by AllSides, it is a hybrid news site and op-ed platform that hosts a wide variety of contributors. Because of this model, the site regularly publishes content criticized as false, misleading, or heavily sensationalized. [1, 2]
Why the Site Faces Misinformation Claims
Yes, that’s how media works now. Who does your site rate as kosher?
The American people do not have the will ( the stomach) for military escalation. It is the ONLY viable option. Americans today believe you can win a war without doing any dying. Until they find out otherwise. We are people mesmerized by politics and love to kick the can down the road. Acting in the long term interest of our population seems out of reach now.
We have a leadership that can’t fathom anything long term. Just steal what you can for now
For sure, Tom. I worked with four Chinese Partners in my very last stint in the Silicon valley….my last job as a Pro (Owner, lived there). Those four guys were WAY down the road in their strategic thinking…and I was all about IMMEDIACY – – I was suffering with them being FORWARD-THINKING against my Western tendencies. A truce worked out and I was able to get my IMPORTANT work done in the first 2 years of my Ownership and I then quit after we went public. I took my 4 Million Shares and worked out a deal after the 6month Stand off period (SEC) and GTFO with them all being sold within 18 months. I retired for good and two of them, in their 80’s are STILL WORKING Strong. They wanted me back in two months ago and I begged off.
My point is that IRAN is more like the Chinese than we expected. Staying power is not Trump’s or America’s strong point. We want to get it on and get off IMMEDIATELY. We have a very cool 4 year gestation period with rotating regimes, putting the pressure on Presidents to PERFORM. TRUMP is boxed in.
You keep making the same mistake as so many other’s It isn’t IRAN that we are battling, it is the Iranian Regime.
The Regime does not care about its people. It will always get first dibs on food, water and medicine. It is likely moving large sums of money out of the country and into hidden bank accounts and crypto.
It will battle until the last Iranian peon is dead and then evacuate to Russia (they wouldn’t be happy in China).
So the only solution is to go in to the country and root out the Regimes, like the cockroaches they are!
When you have been running an inflationary money system for over a hundred years (since 1914), you are in a pretty big hole. I am not sure if Trump understands that part of it, but it looks to me as if he is trying to dig America’s way out. Stealing everything that isn’t nailed down “for the short term” is what all the proper, Establishment politicians do.
If Trump can pull this one off, and better yet if he can make peace with Russia as well, he will give your desperately floundering American Empire a new lease of life. Whether that is ultimately a good thing is another question.
Or he could turn into a beautiful butterfly and fly away… you never know what wonder he’s going to unleash upon the unsuspecting universe!
The American people have no interest in fighting a war on the opposite side of the world that has not a damned thing to do with us. Not that we have any say in the matter–any more than we did in Iraq twice, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Libya, Yemen, Syria, or Iran.
Nobody cares what Americans think or like or want.
You think a farmer cares for the opinions of his livestock?
It’s not in the long term interest of our population. So who cares what we do or don’t have the stomach for. A better way to describe it would be, Americans wised up and are sick of the bullshit wars in the middle east. And we CERTAINLY don’t trust this clown brigade to lead us in one!!!
Are your kids signed up for the coming military draft?
Too late.
Iran is approximately the size of Alaska. It would take a half-dozen divisions to take and hold Iran, probably much more.
To stage and deploy that amount of force (remember, Trump just said we haven’t touched their Army), that would take 6 months at a minimum.
That just ain’t happening.
You neglect to consider that we aren’t fighting the COUNTRY of Iran. We are fighting the despotic Iranian Regime.
Once we enter the country and neutralize the majority of the IRGC, the
Iranian citizens will come out and support the US whole heartedly.
So a lot less force will be needed for a shorter period of time.
The COUNTRY is getting bombed. Not the Regime.
Missing from this discussion: the US doesn’t have 2 and a half years. Western nations and economies will be in desperate condition in 90 days. And then we have the mid-terms. Iran can wait it out, Trump can’t
He believes he can control the elections, so that’s not a consideration.
He’s gonna be wrong. He can’t even pull off a concert on the green.
It is pretty funny that he can’t even get a bunch C-listers and has-beens to get free publicity.
Kid Rock and Ted Nugent both have their own Freedom 250 tours, but they won’t be at the Trumpstien event. I wonder if he fed them McDonalds in their dressing rooms and stiffed them on payment last time?
The more desperate the West becomes, the more pressure on them to come together behind Trump and put a ‘boots on the ground’ force together to free the world and the Iranian people from the despotic Iranian Regime!
Or they start paying Iran and escort their tankers past us. I somehow doubt America is going to play ball like that with a nuclear armed China and France.
The more desperate the West becomes the more they will blame Israel. Just sit back and watch it happen. What did you say about Israel’s population and GDP a while ago? 9 million and $880b? That’s chump change to what’s happening in the world so mathematically and financially who would you sacrifice:
9m people with GDP of $880 and no resources94m people with $12 trillion in oil?Morally, financially, and mathematically, it’s easy to see the solution.
Follow the money, follow the profits.
Under the bus with Israel! Bumpity bump bump!
Never happen. Have you heard of the Samson option?
Be careful what you wish for. It might come true.
Do it so the world can move on in peace.
So go get your helmet and backpack and go.
I agree with all your points except the implication that the market still represents some kind of reasoned consensus of what will happen. If we assume it does, then “deal capitulation” might be the message, but I suspect instead we’re witnessing the result of manipulation. SPR releases from a number of countries are part of that. While providing short-term relief, this obscures the reality of what is coming. The second is possible manipulation of futures markets. For months I’ve seen smarter people post charts pointing out massive options trades, often minutes before market-moving Trump posts. Someone questioned whether this manipulation could be real, asking how or why manipulators would do it if they knock down prices now but are on the wrong side when future prices rise much higher. TBH, I don’t have the answers. I’ve always stayed away from complex trades, options, and even technology companies most of the time, focused on fundamentals I can understand better and have more confidence in. But I’m pretty sure current energy pricing makes no sense in context of a historical energy crisis which has no clear exit ramp and not insignificant possibilities of getting much worse.
I agree, market oil prices are being tamped down by the release of 9-10 million barrels per week from the US SPR and so have become much less informative.This rate of release can only be sustained for about 6 more weeks, until mid July. At that point, the weekly release rate will have to start dropping for 3 reasons. First will be loss hydrostatic head pressure. Second is that oil is pumped out by pumping brine in. As the oil / brine intrerface rises within the caverns, it will get to levels where the cavern walls become more irregular and there will be oil water mixing unless the flow rate is diminished. Finally, the small Bayou Choctaw cavern will hit its minimum floor and stop releasing. That’s the point when the reality of physics will hit the market. Until then, I don’t think you can use the market to infer what the likelihood of a deal is. What I am watching is whether there starts to be talk about imposing export controls (about half of the SPR release is heading overseas now). If that happens it will tell me the administration is planning to settle in to a prolonged stalemate.
I have discussed this before.
After the futures-buying manipulations, oil would shoot back up.
That stopped. Oil now keeps falling.
It’s easily observable.
I get that. There have been times when oil prices quickly reversed after contradicting info came out – like Iran denying certain claims. I’ve never thought of those specific trades as being responsible for price suppression – “just” illegal opportunistic frontrunning. But how do we know the oil futures market has not been continually manipulated to suppress prices, resulting in the price action we’ve seen? I get it that traders might really believe that this crisis is going to be resolved via a deal and that’s why prices are decreasing. But that headline oil price has to be a focal point of the administration, and the schemers around Trump would be motivated to keep it down. Is that impossible (even if only in the short-run)?
Nassim Taleb called. The markets count on normalcy, until it fails.
Taco should be accustomed to eating a “lot of crow” by now. It is apparently becoming his favorite dish.
Crow with Fava Beans.
I don’t know Mish, I tend to think that the US will choose the dumbest option possible. That’s what history tells us. Plus the US government has to do whatever Israel tells them to do, damn what’s in the best interest of Americans. See Trillions of dollars squandered in the West Asia killing and displacing Arabs on behalf of Israel….with nothing to show for it. That money could have been used to improve the lives of average citizens in the States.
I agree. Trumpstien is a narcissist with dementia. He will not eat the crow that has been sitting on his plate for months, and doesn’t care about the consequences for anyone else.
Trump is just a suit ! USA it’s just corporation!
T’is true.
We are getting tired of this.
Can we go back to the Epstein Files?
The fact that we have arrested zero people is the ugliest message you could have both nationally and internationally. This is America, we follow and protect the worst humanity has to offer and all for the love of money. Welcome to the “shit hole country”
Any justice for these pigs will come from people like Luigi.
Damn straight.
A five year old boy spent more time in lockup than the entire Epstein client list combined.
Go on, Trumpers, make more excuses.
They aren’t ashamed. This is the way they want the world to be.