Correction: The BLS reports Thursday. Here’s a breakdown of ADP’s report.
Please consider the ADP Employment Report for June 2026.
Job creation was uneven in June. Financial activities and information were among the gainers, while leisure and hospitality delivered a sixth month of weak hiring.
“The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand. We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there also are signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries. For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation,” said Dr. Nela Richardson ,Chief Economist, ADP
ADP vs BLS in 2026
- Jan: ADP 11,000 BLS: 180,000
- Feb: ADP 66,000 BLS: -148,000
- Mar: ADP 61,000 BLS: 202,000
- Apr: ADP: 105,000 BLS: 120,000
- May: ADP: 122,000 BLS:120,000
- Jun: ADP 98,000
- Jan-May: ADP: 465,000 BLS: 531,000
No Reason to Believe Either Set
- The BLS suffers from a small sample size and terrible response rates.
- ADP has a large sample size but is suspect on proper weighting.
ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size
Monthly Change by Employer Size
- Small 53,000
- 1-19 Employees 38,000
- 20-49 Employees 15,000
- Mid-sized 29,000
- 50-249 employees 19,000
- 250-499 employees 10,000
- Large 25,000
- 500+ employees 25,000
The stats show small employers have been on a relative tear in employment, all year long.
Goods Employment Change
- Natural resources and mining 5,000
- Construction 2,000
- Manufacturing 5,000
Services Employment Change
- Trade, transportation, and utilities 15,000
- Information 7,000
- Financial activities 14,000
- Professional and business services 2,000
- Education and health services 48,000
- Leisure and hospitality 2,000
- Other services 8,000
Education and Health Services added nearly half of the jobs this month.
On Thursday, we see what the BLS has to say.
Related Posts
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The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent, actual is 4.1 percent, up 0.4 percent from last month.
July 1, 2026: GDPNow Nowcast Plunges from 3.1 Percent to 1.2 Percent. What Happened?
The plunge happened between June 24 and June 26, but the Atlanta Fed just posted results today.
July 1, 2026: Manufacturing ISM Up 6 Straight Months, Employment Down 33 Straight Months
Price growth moderated but have input prices have rapidly increased for 21 months.
Addendum
The Market is closed Friday.
The BLS reports thursday
Now both the BLS and ADP need to report: “Robot Replacements Rates” per 1,000 residents, rounded to the nearest decimal and weighted properly.
As is with the other data points, accuracy is assumed to be false by 100% either way.
Data to be reported by a ROBOT filmed in 3D.
The chosen Robot will be the most recent Robbie Winner (equivalent to an Emmy but without the mammary glands).
June payrolls 57K. Sad.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Hospitality numbers way down with world cup being hosted in US? does not make sense unless all other hospitality is circling the drain.
The labor participation rate dropped. 800,000 people quit looking or retired.
Think about that a long while, 800k people stopped working. That’s like most of Jacksonville Florida not showing up to work anymore.
Demographic death spiral in real-time and its only going to get worse. Guaranteed.
The link describes the USA250 fair, a total debacle. End of article describes Trump’s grifting with dollar amounts, disgusting:
AMERICAN FAIR: The Country May Not Be Great Yet, but the Grift Is Grand!
Could be a contributing reason for the hospitality jobs number (sarc).
I put a lot more weight on ADP because BLS usually revises later and end up getting closer to ADP
We’re 18 months into the golden age so when do all those manufacturing jobs return? Where are all the MAGA folks to explain the upcoming prosperity?
And what the heck is causing treasury bond yields to rise? Look at a 1 month chart of TLT. It’s been all over the place the last 30 days. Of course, I love the volatility, sell calls on rallies and buy back on troughs. Speaking of which, I need to go bank some profits since market is closed on Friday…
– When do all those manufacturing jobs return? > Well the Tariffs fell far short of there intended goals obviously. Not sure of the current status of such by the Courts? This will all work itself out, but jobs will not be returning by the looks of it right now. A lot is still on the table however, and yet to materialize, but not rejected as of yet either. Once the dust settles from the Tariff disaster, we will see what actually sticks.
Thanks MAGA for seeing reality.
They’re planning on manufacturing more Patriot missiles that don’t work. Does that count?
Let me guess, they are giving them to Ikraine…
back to economics…thank God
These numbers are not believable as they have more political bias than credibility.
Pablum for the spinners at Fox.
There is definitely meat on these bones, if they truly hired that many education and health service jobs…
Looks like the college hiring season is over.
If they are made up or unneeded, they will be gone before too long. The industry can’t afford more for less, and that’s what it would turn out to be imo.
Job creation was uneven in June. Financial activities and information were among the gainers, while leisure and hospitality delivered a sixth month of weak hiring.
Small companies have been described as the backbone of the U.S. economy. Rightfully so, as they generally make up most of the companies in America.
Monthly Change by Employer Size:
– Small 53,000 – This makes perfect sense, as small companies have been described as the “backbone” of our economy, for several reasons. They make up a massive % of businesses overall, they employee a large segment of the “Private” workforce, and a large chunk of GDP is attributed to this Group of workers.
Mid-sized 29,000 & large 25,000, represents roughly half of what the small businesses warrant for workers.
– Education and Health Services added nearly half of the jobs this month. > This is a bit scary to me for a number of reasons. Education is unaffordable for most, so if they are hiring a lot in this field, it’s either loading the workforce with unneeded workers (Unions?), or we have many more debt slaves due to college cost than most can imagine. Those debts “Must” also be paid back or else… Same with health services, and is this due to ObamaCare going under? Is it going to be gone, and this is to handle the mess that will be created? Not sure these are all real jobs either, or hand outs to those whom lost jobs (see education above)…
In a place called the United States of America, maybe you’ve heard of it, there used to be no such thing as a debt that “Must” be paid back. The forefathers hated debtor’s prisons. Because many of them had been in one, or knew the sad stories of those who had. Rich people like Trump get out of paying debts all the time, despite having plentiful resources.
We can argue later whether this is a good or a bad thing, but in many countries, bankruptcy is very much seen as a moral issue. You (or a business you are associated with) did not pay your debts. You are a bad person.
In Germany, for instance, if you held a C suite role in a company that went bankrupt, good luck getting a responsible position ever again.
In the US, bankruptcy is largely a matter of federal law. That said, again, for better or worse, one of the reason that Texas and Florida have such lenient state insolvency laws and such generous bankruptcy exemptions is because the so many of the early white settlers that founded those states were basically deadbeats, on the run from their creditors.
This, BTW, is why a Matt Drudge or a Rush Limbaugh immediately moved to Florida and bought the biggest and most expensive primary residences they could get their mitts on, and they hold as much equity as humanly possible in those residences. Same with any human who may be facing a large potential non-fraud lawsuit that might bankrupt them.
– In a place called the United States of America, there used to be no such thing as a debt that “Must” be paid back.
> Then came along Money for everyone that wanted to go to college, so they did. Then after spending it all, failed on getting an education, and still owe it back, but not qualified for many jobs that will allow you to do so. Then they attach you tax returns, put liens on your home and stuff like that. You know, for going to college.
You can thank the Colleges for this, as they simply took the Federal Framework and applied it by implementing the “Must” pay back scheme. “As long as they are under the Federal guidelines”, it’s all legit and they will take from you what they can, until it’s paid if need be.
This actually has nothing to do with Trump. It’s has to do with “Defaulting” and then a Court enters a judgement that allows that lien and potentially, eventually taking such home. It can happen…