The combination of autos and nonstore propelled real retail sales in June.
Please consider the Census Department report on Advance Retail Sales for June of 2026.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2025.
Total sales for the April 2026 through June 2026 period were up 6.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
The April 2026 to May 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.9 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent).
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
The report only lists nominal sales, not real (inflation-adjusted sales). It’s real sales that feed GDP.
The lead chart doesn’t look right at first glance. Nonstore sales and autos were each up 1.9 percent but total sales were only up 0.2 percent.
More details will help explain.
Month-Over-Month Nominal Retail Sales
- Total: 0.2 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles: -0.2 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.4 percent
- Motor Vehicles: 1.9 percent
- Nonstore Sales: 1.9 percent
- Food Service: 0.1 percent
- Food Stores: -0.2 percent
- Gas Stations: -5.3 percent
- General Merchandise: 0.1 percent
Weakness in gas stations, food stores, food service, and general merchandise offset huge jumps in motor vehicles and nonstore sales.
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over Month Percent Change
- Nominal Total: 0.4 percent
- Real Total: 0.6 percent
The CPI in June was -0.4 percent. The result is a rare add to real sales by 0.4 percentage points across the board.
Rounding accounts for any discrepancies.
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Detail
Real vs Nominal Sales Notes
- Real retail sales peaked in March of 2021 at 233,440. They are now 231,096 That’s a decline of 2,344 or 1.0 percent.
- In March of 2021, nominal sales were 603,581. They are now 768,553. That’s an increase of 153,504 or 27.3 percent.
Over 100 percent of the increase in retail sales since March of 2021 is due to inflation.
Yet, I can guarantee there will be numerous comments from mainstream economic illiterates today about the “strong consumer”.
Oh, and didn’t someone campaign on fixing this?
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
Percent Change from Year Ago
- Nominal retail sales year-over year are up 6.7 percent
- Real retail sales year-over year are up 3.1 percent
Over half of the reported year-over-year retail sales is a mirage of inflation.
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The bond market reaction suggests the decline is temporary. I concur. Gasoline was a key component, down 9.7 percent in June.
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Meanwhile, the administration has made at least one dream of the libertarian #@$*&^s come true – federal budget and staff reductions implemented by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) at the CDC, HHS and the USDA.
The result? Screwworm and Cyclospora parasite outbreaks.
Congratulations to the &^%$ing libertarians!
The US has begun attacks on Iranian infrastructure tonight. Three bridges were destroyed. Several civilians killed and injured as they were crossing the bridges.
It will be interesting to see how Iran responds to this escalation. I expect attacks on similar infrastructure in neighbouring countries.
Unreal. From what I hear Israel won’t accept anything but a wasteland. I can’t see how we are going to come out of this smelling like roses but we’ll see.
Agreed. This is the escalation that will be hard to stop since the US loses none of ours.
Other Middle East allies of course will feel differently as theirs is destroyed. The obvious gamble here is that the US is hoping this further angers the other countries towards Iran making them more palatable to even further escalation.
“Unconfirmed” reports that Iran fired at the King Fahd bridge, connecting Saudi with Bahrain. Will have to wait and see if that is confirmed.
US companies going to make billions in profits rebuilding infrastructure. You know Trump will force US bids only on those gulf states.
I would agree more with Mish on the topic – bombing these countries is like shooting a wasp nest with BB gun. And who’s to say they won’t buy nukes or materials from their ally Russia?
Trump’s new brazzen grifting – SELLING EARLY PRESS ACCESS IS ABOUT AS BLATANT OF INSANITY AS CHARGING 20% FOR THE STRAIT. HE’S TRULY LOST IT.
“Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social, is launching a paid service to give Wall Street firms high-speed access to its most influential posts, though it is not clear if the paid service will include President Trump’s posts.
Launching 1 August, instant updates will be delivered from key accounts, it said.
The company behind the app hopes it will create a steady new source of money for the firm which is currently loss-making.
It is likely aimed at financial traders who want to see market-moving news fast. Trump’s social media posts often cause sudden swings in global markets, especially when he writes about trade and tariffs. For firms, a delay of even seconds can be costly.
Until now, banks and traders had to monitor the app manually. The new system will send posts directly to paying clients.
”Markets already move on Truth Social posts“, said Kevin McGurn, the interim boss of Trump Media, adding that the service will create a steady profit.
The service will run 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
i’D LIKE TO SEE SOME GOP ASKED HOW THIS ILLEGAL AND IMPROPER SCHEME IS NOT GRIFTING AND UNEXCEPTABLE
Secret Service Agents ‘Fed Up’ With Vance Using Military Helicopters Like Ubers
Apparently, JD and Usha Vance think they, too, are entitled to milk the taxpayers.
” There are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a ‘fib,’ the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics.”
-Winston Churchill-
“Real retail sales peaked in March of 2021 at 233,440. They are now 231,096 That’s a decline of 2,344 or 1.0 percent.”
The increase in profitability and valuation of the S&P 500 over that same time period is a remarkable juxtaposition. Very much askew of what one would expect.
Everyone complaining for years now about the cost of “everything” being too high yet everyone is happily snapping up “everything”, all the time. Although, as MISH demonstrates fantastically, the real numbers show that isn’t actually the case. This K-shape economy sure seems to create some very unusable datasets if you ask me, because every statistic always averages out to “fine”, even though we all know there are epic levels of distress out there. Politicians must love “Big K” as thanks to it, the numbers say that no action is ever needed.
No doubt. 5 acre rural plots by me $140k and selling. Whatever.
Mish – two points. First, you should consider doing the “real” figures also ex-energy or ex-food and energy. Second. The error bars are pretty insane!
Good suggestion – I did what you asked but charts difficult to see.
So, instead I plotted real food services, real food stores, real Vehicles and parts, real nonstore, and real general merchandise
The only things still rising are real nonstore and real food services.
May do a separate post on this.
Curiously it’s online shopping plus eating out. The later looks like it might be fading.