Not everyone has powers like this. 
Synopsis
- Trump blockaded the Strait of Hormuz today
- Trump claims the strait is open. The market vehemently disagrees.
- In addition to closing the strait, Trump wants a 20 percent fee for safe passage that the US cannot even supply.
- Iran has successfully hit US escorted tankers.
- As a result, the price of WTIC has surged from $72.70 at 5:32 AM this morning to $79.41 at 8:12 PM this evening.
- That’s an increase of $6.71 per barrel, 9.2 percent in a matter of hours.
- Brent Crude is up from $77.38 to $85.47 in the same timeframe. That’s an increase of $8.09 or 10.6 percent.
Bond Yields
- 30-Year: 5.112 Percent.
- 10-Year: 4.630 percent.
If the long bond yield tops 5.179 percent, it will be the highest since mid-2007.
July Rate Hike Odds
- 8.3 percent a month ago
- 25.7 percent a week ago
- 34.2 yesterday
- 45.4 percent today
September Rate Hike Odds
- At Least One Hike: 77.7 percent
- Two Quarter Point Hikes (July and September): 26.9 percent
- Stand Pat: 22.3 percent, down from 30.4 percent yesterday and 70.5 percent a month ago
Given the odds of two hikes is greater than holding steady, the market has now effectively priced in a hike by September.
For Whom the Toll Bells
Mere Mortals Don’t Have This Power
Congratulations are in order. Mere mortals don’t have this kind of influence on the markets.
So tut-tut to all of you protesting Trump as a king. Trump is not a king. He is a god, and acts like it.
In edit, WTI is now $79.83 poised to be back over $80 soon.
But that’s OK.
On What Basis Is This OK?
Please look at things this way. It’s a small price to pay for Republicans getting crushed in the midterm elections.
At least six Republican seats are in play. Rising oil prices, rate hikes, and more inflation overall will help the cause.
Note: I am not a Democrat and do not align with them on fiscal and other issues. But I have had it with Trump worship, wars, deficit spending, tariffs, and many other issues.
Trump has destroyed the Republican party and will pay a price at the midterms no matter what party you support.
Fees Are OK Now
Please note that a $1 million fee by Iran is not OK but a 30 million fee for safe passage collected by the US is OK.
For discussion, please see Trump Says the US Is the Hormuz Strait Guardian, Will Charge 20 Percent Fee
Instead of paying Iran $1 million per ship, Trump wants 20 percent of cargo.
And Trump cannot even guarantee safe passage!
US Escorts Under Attack
Why Republicans Will Lose the Senate
For further discussion of the election, please see Why I Expect Democrats to Win the Senate in the Midterms Elections
It’s the economy stupid, plus betting markets, Republican infighting, and momentum.
“Note: I am not a Democrat and do not align with them on fiscal and other issues. But I have had it with Trump worship, wars, deficit spending, tariffs, and many other issues.
Trump has destroyed the Republican party and will pay a price at the midterms no matter what party you support.”
100% total agreement on this. I used to vote straight Republican tickets but now with Trump, I‘lol be voting other parties until the Rs get back to sanity.
Taco taco’ed. On Tuesday.
As I have said, Trump will inevitably find a brick wall big enough to stop him. Trouble is, we are all strapped to the front of the clown car headed for that wall. “We” might include the entire world population, but surely it is USA folks.
Stupid me, I made optimistic investments this month, and I’m taking it on the chin.
Trump is wasting billions in artillery on an enemy who supposedly has no military remaining and yet Congress stays completely silent. It is cuckold porn, American Politics Styly
TACO TUESDAY is here!
Trump now saying on Truth Social that he will “replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States..Those Investments will be MASSIVE but, at the same time, extraordinarily good for them, and their future…”
So it was the Gulf States he wanted to extort.
How interesting.
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” ― Henry Kissinger
A protection racket.
How long will it be before Little Marco is sent packing?
Again…
The Fed doesn’t set rates, the market does, the Fed follows.
What happened to releasing the Epstein files, making homes more affordable controlling inflation and paying off the deficit with DOGE savings and tariffs paid by other nations?
Where is the wall paid for by Mexico?
Where have our allies gone?
Why are we threatening multiple other nations with invasion?
Why is congress and the DOJ protecting the perpetrators instead of the victims of Trump/Epstein?
cant you go watch some porn or play games or something?
There is nothing MAGA hates more than the reasonable but extremely painful questions Frosty asks
China Cuts Saudi Crude Orders https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Cuts-Saudi-Crude-Orders-as-Hormuz-Risks-and-Discounts-Reshape-Trade.html
Add this one to the list:
One reason oil prices have not risen as much as many expected since the start of Trump’s “Special Operation” is that China largely stopped buying on the open market and instead drew on its strategic reserves. Most likely, Beijing wanted to avoid paying inflated prices, betting that Trump’s “Special Operation” would be short-lived and that oil prices would eventually fall back to more normal levels. That strategy almost worked; but only almost.
Now that calculation may be proving wrong. Oil prices are climbing again, with no clear ceiling and little sign of relief. At the same time, strategic reserves are finite; they cannot be relied upon indefinitely.
Sooner or later, China will have to return to the market, and it may have no choice but to buy at significantly higher prices. That renewed demand could drive prices even higher.
Then, if there is a God, perhaps He will intervene to save us all.
Thor could care less about your stupid gas prices!
China needs the buyers of its products to be able to buy. US gas prices affect that marginally, but their BIGGER market (Asia) was at risk of tanking – which some say was part of China’s reasoning for starting to use its vast oil reserves to keep oil prices from getting way out of whack.
What do you expect if you elect a self obsessed, deluded, narcissist, child hugging (sic), megalomaniac, sexual assaulter, 6 time business bankruptee…..
The US people let their paranoia and hate overwhelm their prudence. They would rather see others thrown under a bus, and the illusion of their status enhanced, and accept “free stuff,” and live in a poorly-done movie of the past, than roll up their sleeves and actually compete in the world. These are he great tales of the decline of empires.
Half the us population
This is the culmination of a few very wealthy individuals who have time and money to shape the direction of the republican party to their beliefs for profits and power. Choose who runs / shape the voters minds through conservative media: religions beliefs and a whole lot of propaganda / combine with a bunch of others who are along to profit (from media host to teeshirt sales)in some form or are true believers with an axe to grind. Add to the mix a bunch of wealthy pedos and people in positions of power who may not like trump but do not want to get exposed to boot. Also throw in interference of russia and china.
Ps the only thing trump has ever said that i believe. Is if you vote for me this time you never will have to do it again.
Expect a heathy serving of Taco’s as it is Tuesday.
I expect it will take a week at least, now that Saudi Arabia is bombing the Houthis. Hope I am wrong.
thx for the reminder. 5 for $6.99 here and they are full of beef 3 of them is enough.
Closing of the Bab al-Mandeb strait now more likely
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/07/13/772185/Yemen-threatens-to-close-Bab-al-Mandeb-Strait,-warns-of–200-a-barrel-oil-amid-Saudi-aggression
This would further restrict oil coming from the Middle East
You mean the Houthis? They have even less power to do anything than the Iranian Regime, since they depend on the Regime for money and weapons. 🤣🤣🤣
Oh good one, I’m gonna bookmark this comment and make you eat it JoJo, it’s only a matter of time, I give it 30 days.
Don’t bother. Some people never allow the facts to bother their felacious ideology.
Says Augustine looking in a mirror.
Neutralizing and/or displacing the Iranian Regime is MORE IMPORTANT than the price of oil! People have plenty of money now. Stop the whining. Whew.
The average net worth of individuals in a bar when Elon Musk walks is in the tens of billions of dollars.
What an idiotic assessment when three-fourth are worried about putting food on the table.
And if the idiot in charge had not started this stupid war in the first place 100% of us would be better off.
thank you My electric bill has increased form 69 to 92 dollars for my minuscule one bedroom apt Vegetables/fruits have increased many fold so I now go to a second food pantry and I am joined by MANY of my peers And dont tell me that they are all ‘queens’ wanting free food. I would much prefer to fill my grocery cart at Aldis but I just dont have the leisure monies to do that. I drive my hybrid below 60mph to keep it running on electric so I only fill my tank every 3 weeks. Every day I see more and more vagabonds homeless hobos in ALL levels of neighborhoods. I know something is terribly wrong. But I stay strong. “I prefer the company of peasants because they have not been educated sufficiently to reason incorrectly.”
― Michel de Montaigne
Michel de Montaigne is long dead and gone.
…like your reasoning abilities.
I find the massive growth of wealth inequality in America very concerning. I hope things in your area improve robbyrob.
We need to stop letting the welfare of the economic poor drive important decisions that need to be made.
I repeat: “Neutralizing and/or displacing the Iranian Regime is MORE IMPORTANT than the price of oil!
Do you teach your kids to have this attitude to worse off people? I pity them.
Lol, you’re an avowed social security leech and I assume a medicare leech too given your age. The pot calling the kettle black.
The ones cashing government checks are always the one screaming loudest about government spending.
So go get your helmet and backpack and go fight.
If my bot is right, the median household net worth is around $110,000. By definition, half of all US households have less than that.
I thought you said with ALL CAPS that the Strait was not closed.
I said nothing about that subject in my post. Are you a hallucinating AI?
So we can add lying to the long list of wonderful virtues you have.
Different post dumbell.
But you recently said it in another post. Why lie?
Apparently, you are too stupid to know the difference between “average” and “median”…
I do know the difference but it doesn’t matter. If $20-$50 extra/week makes a difference in your budget then you are doing something wrong. No pity for you.
Hey fuckwit, the weekly difference between average and median incomes in the US is more than $700. Not the $20-$50 range that you are claiming it is.
The 2025 “American Dream” Now Costs More Than $5 Million
https://www.investopedia.com/2025-american-dream-costs-more-than-usd5-million-11796727
If this Hormuz fee threat caused oil to surge $10.00 in one day, imagine what would happen to oil prices if any or all of the following oil supply disruptors occurred:
Brazil’s main oil production fields are thousands of miles South of hurricane prone areas. They sit around the coast of the states of Rio and Sao Paulo.
Caracas is almost twice as distant to Rio de Janeiro as it is to Toronto.
Reasonable point.
While rare, hurricanes and tropical storms have occurred such as 2004’s Hurricane Catarina. Since that time, waters in the Gulf have warmed significantly and deepwater production has moved north. Also the media loves to spin anything that even threatens oil production so the rationale of prices rising with any combination of the above stands.
As an aside, the Pacific water temperatures are now rising significantly with the intensifying El Nino and prediction models have little experience with an anomaly above 2 degrees.
Mish may experience some intense “Monsoon Season” activities in Saint George, UT.
Food for thought in any case.
Regardless, all those examples pale in comparison to the Pedophile in Chief.
If anyone knows how to talk anything up…
it is most certainly King Chaos the Shit Talker.
Now serving: a Republican Party of One!
Trump just legitimized Iran’s claim for transit fees (protection money)
He’s a genius at undercutting his previous position (right of free transitP
Dementia patients often do that.
I believe international law on the high seas also makes it illegal to murder unarmed people on boats. But what do I know…
Like in Venezuela.
That is why Rubio wants to end the ICC.
You can bet that taco’s billionaire buddies are on the right side of the related trades in equities, bonds and commodities, including his personal trades.
Trump didn’t cause interest rates to go up. 10 year bond yields were already heading higher due to the beginning of the 20 week cycle at the end of June. Already the present cycle is a hair weaker than the previous one, which rallied early from 3.96 to 4.48%. I expect the present 20 week cycle to reach at least 4.80%.
The 2 years of general horizontal movement into the second post-COVID 54 month cycle has me thinking the cycle may be inverting and will blast higher over the next 3 years as the last 15 years of the 60 year cycle makes its top.
Well for the prudent investor positioned with sold bond calls and oil stocks, it’s a great day to be alive and banking profits. Did I tell you guys about the cruel summer, it’s right on schedule!
Musical tribute:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4tSE2w53ts
Do worry, Trump, Walrus and the GOP will find a way to make things even worse.™
Welcome to the Trump Golden Age of crazy.
When the war began, the world was fortunate to have a fair bit of oil on water and in land inventory. That has mostly been used up now. Refined product inventories are quite low as well.
The oil execs that said historically low inventories could lead to a big price spike in July might be proven correct.
Well… I’ve sure got some words to eat if Iran is able to sustain hitting escorted ships!
The market agrees that Trump can not protect oil cargoes exiting the strait at this time. Perhaps all Trump is doing is front running the WTI oil trade again and using his bully pulpit to make money off of all of us.
Taco Tuesday is tomorrow, so…
Do you know what caused oil and stocks to rise from mid December up until the start of the war? I had been reading about a glut but for some reason prices kept rising. And whatever that reason was, is it still in play now?
Yes. A surplus of supply of around 1-3 mbpd over those 3 months leading to inventory growth of over150 mb. Most of the surplus was from increases in OPEC quotas. That was added to 200 mb of sanctioned, stranded oil on water from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. All of which got used up when the strait was closed.
If the war escalates again, we no longer have such a surplus of inventories. Plus we have run down SPRs.
Thank you for your reply. So…a surplus lead to a price increases? CVX rose in that time from about 146 to 186, which is slightly under that now but hit 166 a couple of weeks ago. I’m confused why the price rose during inventory growth and why it is now lower than what it was before the war began.
GOP is gonna get crushed. They need to be punished.
I’m voting straight Libertarian from now on.
Voting? 🤣
We’ve been presented with another great opportunity to short oil… The nonsense will pass. The only question is whether or not it reaches the highs back in May. Probably not.
LOL who downvoted me? TDS should be in the DSM.
Curious. Did you short oil two months ago?
Yes. I shorted USO OCT 100/135 call spreads toward the beginning of June and closed them at the end of the month. I’m currently in USO OCT 90/135’s and will add more if it the price increases.
Thanks.
It’s probably the statement “The nonsense will pass.”
Not everyone is so sanguine as you.
The unelected Fed chair has a much pricing power.
World oil demand set for first annual decline since 2020, IEA says
demand destruction?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/iea-world-oil-demand-declines-iran-war.html
An interesting point of view.
Annual Demand has only declined twice since 2000. That was 2008 and 2020. Both significant recession years.
What reason is given for lower demand in 2026?
1. Global recession (the usual reason)
2. High prices?
3. Lack of supply?
Both 2 and 3 are basically the same thing. Lack of supply leads to high prices, which can zap demand.
i just bought a new pair of walking shoes. i hoof it miles per day for daily living in rich world…….groceries and doctors and heading out to movies and shows…………..life in amerika is plenty fat. rich world whiners delight me. from bottom to top of food chain.
That’s great, more people need to get around by walking!
Guessing you don’t live in South Florida or a similarly hot climate or you would not be hoofing it for miles a day (you might take nightly walks at night but not to get and carry groceries for miles).