To answer the question we need to look closely at real (inflation-adjusted) sales. 
Please consider the Census Department report on Advance Retail Sales for June of 2026.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2025.
Total sales for the April 2026 through June 2026 period were up 6.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
The April 2026 to May 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.9 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent).
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
The report only lists nominal sales, not real (inflation-adjusted sales). It’s real sales that feed GDP.
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales in Millions of Dollars
Real vs Nominal Sales Notes
- Real retail sales peaked in March of 2021 at 233,440. They are now 231,096 That’s a decline of 2,344 or 1.0 percent.
- In March of 2021, nominal sales were 603,581. They are now 768,553. That’s an increase of 153,504 or 27.3 percent.
Over 100 percent of the increase in nominal retail sales since March of 2021 is due to inflation.
Real Retail Sales Detail
The Covid-related impacts were over by August 2021. That’s the first set of numbers above.
Amazon captures roughly 36% to 40% of total U.S. online/non-store e-commerce sales. In broader terms, this translates to Amazon accounting for over 10% of all U.S. retail spending overall
Real Retail Sales Billions of Real Dollars
- Nonstore: 42.90 up 29.02 percent since Aug 2021
- Motor Vehicles and Parts: 43.16 up 0.53 percent since Aug 2021
- Food Services: 30.82 up 15.04 percent since Aug 2021
- Food and Beverage Stores: 25.69 down 6.54 percent since Aug 2021
- Gas Stations: 18.22 up 2.4 percent since Aug 2021
- Department Stores: So meaningless that the BLS stopped gathering data starting April 2025
- Total: 231.10 vs 222.07 in Aug 2021 up 4.07 percent
- Total Excluding Nonstore: 188.20 vs 188.82 in Aug 2021 up 0.33 percent
Real Advance Retail Sales Excluding Nonstore
The sum of Nonstore, Motor Vehicles and Parts, Food Stores, Food Service, and Gas Stations is 160.79 billion.
That’s 69.6 percent of the total.
Nonstore sales and food service (eating out) is over 100 percent of the growth in real retail sales since August of 2021.
Most of that increase is nonstore. Nothing else is growing except volatile gas station sales.
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Nonstore sales and to a lesser extent food service are the only drivers of retail sales. Recent numbers show food service is faltering.
So, if people slow down online shopping, this economy is toast.
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Not everyone has powers like this.
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The bond market reaction suggests the decline is temporary. I concur. Gasoline was a key component, down 9.7 percent in June.
July 16, 2026: Autos and Nonstore Retail Sales Both Strong in June, Gasoline Down
The combination of autos and nonstore propelled real retail sales in June.
Someone asked for more inflation-adjusted charts.
This post was the result.
Good idea
Thanks
Like we tell our kids, every year, the govt prints a new type of money.
Still called “dollars” and looks the same but worth a bit less.
Thanks Mish that was me. The compound growth on the non-store is not super impressive either, something like 4.25% and as you note, the other cats are pretty much garbage.
Breaking: Monopolies and cartel behavior reliably kills capitalism dead every single time they’re allowed, more at 11.
Raising my hand – dependent on Amazon, but not happy about it. Much of this is for broadcast engineer duties and repair work. Up until about 12 years ago we had an industrial supply and electronics house in Medford for semiconductors and other component sourcing. (That and Radio Shack – RIP). They’re all gone and now it’s Amazon, Ebay, sometimes Mouser and Digikey. Broadcast transitter tubes are mostly a China thing now, Alibaba, etc. The other issue is equipment being made that’s essentially non-repairable in the field. It’s all part of that “Landfill Economy” that Charles Hugh Smith writes about. All counted as “Growth”, I guess.
I refuse to buy anything off amazon anymore. most of the time you can find at another retailer or direct from the comany making the product.
So you now buy from Temu and AliExpress? Amazon is the new department store, waiting to be run out of business.
You can get even with your face by cutting your nose off, but that is an extreme methodology.
“‘Stay hungry, move a muscle,” as Talking Heads sang. I use very minimal, but high quality, durable consumer goods, in a simplified, minimalist lifestyle My “real” consumer spending has declined every year since 2000. (But strategically, I am walkable from everything: woods, beach, stores, clinics.) Meanwhile my financial reserves have grown, even as inflation has fairly sharply reduced my real income. Austerity for me is like exercise: a pleasurable everyday discipline. Aging means jettisoning things with too much friction. Saying no to myself is a mantra. Then, I am often pleasantly surprised.
I don’t know about the economy but I am dependent on Amazon! I placed 92 orders with Amazon in 2025 and so far in 2026, 64 orders.
Look at what Walmart did to mom & pop retail outlets that used to sell the vast array of items that Walmart does now. It decimated small town local retail economies.
Internet sales is finishing the job of making most brick & mortar stores and malls a quaint memory of the past. Go big box or go home.
There are a number of ‘levers” that retail can pull to try and stimulate sales. Let’s admit for decades now Walmart made that the “Price” lever. Personally I think one immoral aspect of Walmart is (to those who recall) when they grew into urban areas, after starting in rural locations post Arkansas days, they’re store entrance signs carrier examples of jobs they created in small towns by purchasing their products. They then backstabbed that image ever after by exploding their shelves with massive Chinese imports. Thanks for the misportrayal of helping Americans dear Walton Family.
Price as the retail weapon de jour has ruled ever since.
Young adults are poor despite every metric which suggests otherwise
https://xcancel.com/i/article/2077113148524417439
So what was the point you wanted to make by referring to this post? Is there some action you think is necessary? Free stuff for everyone making less than $100k?
Interesting article. This bit resonates with me, “…a thousand small divorces and social fragmentations which boost the appearance of GDP but leave everyone poorer in reality.”
Creating and promoting “singles” is good for business. The tax man likes it too.
Amazon can help you make the most of your smaller piece of pie! /s
As your buying power decreases it’s a good things products are getting cheaper. And just in the nick of time!